Preview 2009-10 -- Providence Friars

Too Busy for the Details?
The Class of 2009 made the NIT twice during it's time in Friartown, disappointing when compared to the promise they offered in their debut back in 2006. With their loss in the 1st round of the NIT last March they passed into the record books, lasting a season longer than the coach who recruited them. They leave behind a new coach, and their point guard, a player around whom Keno Davis can begin the rebuilding process. Next season may be a bit tough for the Friar fans to watch, but at least they go in with no illusions. Prognosis -- A 4th quartile finish.

3 Years At a Glance
The Class of 2009 brought Providence most of their starting lineup, scorers in the front court (Geoff McDermott) and the back court (Weymini Efejuku) and rebounders (McDermott & Jon Kale). The Class of 2009 made an impact with their presence. And in 2010 the impact will come from their absence.

	Returning...
	2010	2009	2008
%Min	36.0	80.2	66.2
%Pts	34.4	82.6	57.1
%FGM	33.3	83.8	54.6
%3FGM	54.2	76.8	71.1
%OReb	23.0	81.7	63.1
%DReb	25.4	87.4	66.4
%TReb	24.6	85.4	65.3

Sharaud Curry's red shirt in 2008 may have snuffed Tim Welsh's lasts hopes for a longer coaching tenure, but it may salvage a modicom of Friar self respect in 2010. The high percentage of returning 3s reflects the return of Providence's back court and wing starters. The big vacancies in 2010, and hence the opportunities, will come in the front court (notice the very low percentage of returning rebounds?).

	According to Pomeroy...
	2008-09		2007-08		2006-07
	#	Rank	#	Rank	#	Rank
Overall ORtg	110.5	52	110.4	60	112.2	58
Overall DRtg	99.3	131	97.1	95	96.9	90
Big East ORtg	106.2	9	102.7	11	102.2	7
Big East DRtg	108.6	14	108.6	13	100.5	10
Four Factors -- Overall
All Off. eFG%	50.6	104	51.5	106	53.7	39
All Off. TOv%	19.7	128	20.8	171	23.6	283
All Off. OReb%	36.3	59	36.0	62	41.3	5
All Off. FTA/FGA	39.5	87	32.3	267	34.5	208
All Def. eFG%	50.5	235	50.3	189	49.2	109
All Def. TOv%	20.1	181	21.9	117	20.0	223
All Def. OReb%	36.5	302	36.1	296	33.2	152
All Def. FTA/FGA	29.1	24	37.1	181	33.4	101
Four Factors -- Big East
BE Off. eFG%	52.2	5	51.4	5	51.6	3
BE Off. TOv%	19.3	11	20.8	11	23.4	15
BE Off. OReb%	33.6	11	32.2	10	38.2	4
BE Off. FTA/FGA	41.2	4	32.2	13	23.5	10
BE Def. eFG%	51.0	12	49.2	8	48.6	9
BE Def. TOv%	18.2	10	19.8	7	18.2	12
BE Def. OReb%	38.0	14	38.9	16	32.6	10
BE Def. FTA/FGA	28.6	3	40.5	11	32.6	10
Miscellaneious
All Gms Cons	21.4	224	21.6	216	21.8	222
All Gms Luck	+.023	80	-.036	248	-.033	229

Davis' 2009 squad, largely the same squad that took the court for the 2008 season (absent Dwain Williams, an outbound transfer and Greedy Peterson, a red shirt) nevertheless managed to improve their shooting and turnover percentage. The 2010 squad will feature many new faces in the frontcourt -- rebounding trends (largely unchanged over the past 2 seasons) are therefore, not predictive for 2010.

	For the Record...
	2008-09			2007-08			2006-07
	W	L	Pct.	W	L	Pct.	W	L	Pct.
Overall	19	14	0.576	15	16	0.484	18	13	0.581
Big East	10	8	0.556	6	12	0.333	8	8	0.500
Post Season?	NIT/Rnd 1			BET/Rnd 1			NIT/Rnd 1

Davis was able to improve the Friar's won/loss record, using the same personnel as the Tim Welsh teams of 2007 and 2008 (with the return of Sharaud Curry), should be taken as a good sign. The Friar teams of 2010 and beyond should more closely reflect Coach Davis' style of play and philosophy of the game.

The Friar's Nucleus
With the graduation of the Class of 2009, Coach Davis has a rebuilding job in 2010. He does however, have a few Tim Welsh holdovers to build around...

On Offense
Player	Min%	Ortg	Poss%	Shot%	eFG%	PPWS	OR%	FTR%
Curry	79.2	111.9	18.4	18.7	50.8	1.12	1.2	32.6
Brooks	52.5	107.9	22.9	26.4	50.9	1.07	7.0	28.3
McKenzie	47.4	88.6	15.8	17.1	39.6	0.85	5.1	21.5

Brooks was a mainstay ("Major Contributor") in the Friar offense in 2009, chances his role will expand are slim; Curry by his numbers however, shows the potential to take on more, and assuming he will be 100% for 2010, will most likely take more shots and possessions. McKenzie took a step back last season but, finding himself at the top of the depth chart on the wing, ought to buy him some long looks from the staff. He has "extended range" on his 3s, a skill valued by Coach Davis.

On Defense
Player	Min%	DR%	Ast%	TO%	Stl%	Blk%
Sharaud Curry	79.2	5.4	23.4	19.4	0.0	1.8
Marshon Brooks	52.5	10.9	12.5	15.0	3.1	2.6
Brian McKenzie	47.4	10.4	9.6	21.4	0.5	1.7

Significant Additions
The Friars may need name tags for the first few team practices. Coach Davis will blend three red shirts, freshman Bilal Dixon, a 6-8, 228 lbs forward out of Queen of Peace HS in New York City, junior Jamine Peterson, a 6-6 225 lbs forward and junior 6-11 265 lbs center Ray Hall, with seven newcomers, that number two JUCOs and five true freshmen. Peterson and Dixon will be crucial, as the Friars have a huge need for front court players. Peterson has a #3's body but a #4's game and mentality. Under the right circumstances Peterson may develop a productive role with the Friars next season.

Front court JUCOs Russ Permenter, a 6-7 225lbs #4 out of Temple College TX and an undersized, (6-5 200 lbs) #4, Kyle Wright out of Monroe CC in New York will see playing time early and often in the season. Of the true freshmen, 6-2 pg Vincent Council, a 5th year prep student out of the Patterson HS in North Carolina is held in the high regard by scouting services, as is 5-11 160 pound point guard Johnnie Lacy, a 5th year prep out of Notre Dame Prep in Massachussetts. Together Lacy and Council will no doubt provide good back up for Curry, and log some minutes in the off guard spot. The cohort's two front court players, Kadeem Batts, a 6-7 215 lbs #4 and James Still, a 6-8 205 lbs #5 seem undersized for the Big East. Given Providence's need and Davis' offensive philosophy and background (Drake out of the Missouri Valley Conference), it would not be surprising to see both used.


Explode If...
1. Ok, maybe not explode, but if Curry, McKenzie and Brooks can improve their outside shooting, they will definitely divert defensive attention from their less experienced under class teammates. Those three took a collective 49.7% of their FGAs from beyond the arc, but managed only a disappointing 33.2% conversion rate. These three also did not get to the line much -- only 18.3% of their points came at the charity stripe. These guys have the talent, and an experienced pg to set the table. Davis has to find some plays to give them good looks.
2. The front court gels. Really, really well.

Implode If...
A head coach (in his third year as a DI head coach no less) heads into his second Big East season with a squad that has 3 players (all new or back from a red shirt) 6-9 or taller, looking to his 4 Big East veteran players (all back court/wings) around which he will build his second team. Not a pretty picture. What defense can the Friars install that will divert attention away from their young low post presence?

Crucial Run/Bellweather Games
Providence will open the season with three games in the World Vision Invitational, hosting DI newbie Bryant University, Patriot League mainstay Bucknell and Mercer out of the The Friars have been faithful keepers of the flame for New England basketball, and will continue their local rivalries with Boston College, Brown and Rhode Island. Look for how the Friars handle those games, as Boston College is rebuilding, the Rams return a veteran squad (about 2/3 of the minutes from their 2009 squad -- Jimmy Baron the big loss) and the Bears, like the Friars, will have a lot of new faces to work into their rotation. 3-0 against the locals would be very good news. Providence will travel to Alabama in late November to face a rebuilding (under new coach Anthony Grant) Crimson Tide squad and down to Washington DC in December to face the A10's George Washington. Both games, against less-than-ready competition should provide road experience the Friars can use as they open the Big East season with two road games.

The Notre Dame stop on their opening road trip should be informative for both the Friars and Fighting Irish. Both teams are replacing important members of their respective squads (though for Notre Dame, the task appears a bit less daunting). The second stop, at St. John's, however, may say more about Johnnies' prospects than the Friars. St. John's points to 2010 as the season they move up in the conference, and a loss to the Friars would throw an early damper on the Storm's expectations. For the Friars however, a win in the Big Apple would be an unexpected lift. The four game run from January 9th to January 23rd -- a pair of home bookends (versus Rutgers and South Florida) that enclose a midwinter Midwestern road trip to Marquette and DePaul -- will tell us quite a bit about the Friar's prospects even as it provides a hint or two on how the conference's 4th quartile will sort out. Should the Friars run the table they will most likely finish with a 12th or 13th seed to the Big East Tournament, as they have another home game in which they should be favored (and a road game at South Florida). And a 6 win conference season, with a squad that has 3 players who measure 6-9 or taller (6-11 junior redshirt Ray Hall), would not be a bad thing. If Davis' squad really gels, late season (home) matchups with a rebuilding Syracuse and an interesting Seton Hall squad offer possibilities.

Preview -- Providence, the First Game

The Providence Friars will try to bounce back when they host the Wildcats Wedensday in the Dunkin Donuts Center in Providence, Rhode Island. The Wildcats & Friars continue a series that predates the Big East, going back to 1936. They have played 82 games over the past 73 years, Nova holding a 48-34 advantage. Villanova rides the wave of a 3 game winning streak...

Common Opponents, Good Wins, Bad Losses...
The 'Cats and Friars have 6 common opponents so far, Rhode Island was their lone OOC opponent, and the Big East conference schedule has supplied the other 5 (St. John's, UConn, Marquette, Cincinnati and Seton Hall):

	Nova		PC
Opponent	W/L	Diff.	W/L	Diff.
Rhode Island	W (N)	+13	W (H)	+1
Marquette	L (A)	-7	L (H)	-9
St. John's	W (H)	+19	W (H)	+21
Seton Hall	W (A)	(OT)+4	W (A)	(OT)+5
Connecticut	L (A)	-6	L (A)	-33
Cincinnati	W (H)	+21	W (H)	+9
Cincinnati			W (A)	+8

Providence (Big East, 14-7, 6-3, RPI #63) has had a few notably good wins, their best versus Syracuse (Big East 16-5, 5-4, RPI #24). All of their 7 losses have been to teams ranked #55 or higher. The most damaging loss to date was a 4 point home loss to Northeastern (CAA, 15-6, RPI #55) in their season opener...

Lineups, Rotations...
...First year Coach Keno Davis inherited an upper classmen dominated squad and has opted to work that group at every opportunity. He fixed on his starting lineup early and allocates to them between 68% and 72% of the PT.

In the front court expect to see senior forward Geoff McDermott (6-8, 235lbs) start beside fellow senior Jon Kale (6-8, 245lbs). McDermontt is a pass-first forward who prefers to set up shop on the perimeter and set up a teammate to score. When Coach Davis goes to his bench he will most likely bring in either senior #4/#5 Randall Hanke (6-11, 245lbs) or sophomore Alex Kellogg (6-7, 225lbs). McDermott, Kale and Hanke are well regarded rebounders, with McDermott ranked among Ken Pomeroy's Top 100 defensive rebounders, and Hanke ranked among Pomeroy's Top 100 offensive rebounders.

Coach Davis has installed a three guard attack, drawing again on the most experienced elements of the squad. Expect seniors Weyinmi Efejuku (6-5, 210lbs) and transfer Jeff Xavier (6-1, 185lbs) to start as off guards. Efejuku and Xavier form an inside/outside combination, with Xavier preferring a 3FGA (he hits at about a 35% rate) while Efejuku takes it inside, where he scores at about a 51.4% clip, but more importantly, gets to the line about once every 3 FGAs (that is about the same rate as a forward). Red shirt junior Sharaud Curry (5-10, 170lbs) will start at the point. Labeled a "Role Player" by Ken Pomeroy's system (see his Team Page) Curry is a consistent, though not prolific, shooter who looks for the open man -- he is ranked in Ken Pomeroy's Top 200 for assists per possession. Curry took a red shirt last season, and the team struggled with Xavier unexpectedly manning the point (and McDermott functioning as a point forward). Coach Davis has options to maintain the high game pace his Friars run. He will look to sophomore guard Marshon Brooks (6-5, l90bs) and junior Brian McKenzie (6-4, 205lbs) to come in a keep shooting/scoring. Both have logged just over 50% of the available for their positions. Brooks is the more efficient scorer and tends to limit his turnovers, but McKenzie has great range and is the better free throw shooter.

Dante Cunningham, Dwayne Anderson, Reggie Redding and Scottie Reynolds will start for the Wildcats. Antonio Pena usually starts, but his spot went to Shane Clark, making his first start this season, in the Wildcat's last game (Cincinnati). No matter who takes the last spot, the other will most likely see playing time. When Coach Wright looks for relief, he will turn to the Coreys (Fisher or Stokes). Cunningham has gone nearly two full games without be whistled for a foul (hopefully I did not jinx him here...), but if fouls become a front court issue, expect to see senior Frank Tchuisi be called on for spot duty.

By the Numbers, Offense & Defense...
Coach Davis kicked Tim Welsh's uptempo game up a notch as Providence plays for about 72 possessions, more than the rest of the conference. Their (adjusted) offensive/defensive rating, 109.3/97.7 suggests they, like South Florida, play pretty good offense and pretty "average" defense. A look at the "numbers underneath" give us an idea of how they do it.

When Providence has the ball...
				FTA
	eFG%	TO%	OR%	FGA
Friar O	51.3	18.9	37.9	37.2
Wildcat D	44.4	22.3	30.3	36.6

The Wildcat's shot defense will be put to the test yet again. Providence is ranked in the top 1/3 of D1 for shot efficiency, but they do a much better job hitting 2FGAs rather than 3FGAs. They do take 36% of their FGAs from beyond the arc however, so expect them to shoot away in the Dunk. Nova's OR% has declined over the past 3-4 games, according to Ken Pomeroy's Scouting Report (rank declined to #90), while Providence is another team that rebounds their misses well. The rebounding numbers, especially Nova's defensive rebounds will most likely be a sensitive number. The Friars distribute the scoring opportunities among Efejuku and Xavier from the starting lineup, but Hanke and Brooks will get more scoring opportunities when they are in. Both Brooks and Hanke are more efficient than Efejuku and Xavier, though those two play fewer minutes. Brooks only very slightly favors 2FGAs over 3FGAs; he will most likely draw Redding when the two are on the court. Hanke shoots 2s and does it very efficiently, much as he did two seasons ago, when much of his scoring came on putbacks. His biggest improvement this season has been on defense, emerging as one of Pomeroy's top 500 defensive rebounders. The "Four Factors" look at Villanova's offense versus PC's defense:

When Villanova has the ball...
				FTA
	eFG%	TO%	OR%	FGA
Wildcat O	50.7	18.6	36.1	43.2
Friar D	49.9	21.1	35.4	29.4

Nova should have a good night from the field as Providence is not defended the shot well lately. No doubt the level of competition has played a role, but the Friars are most deficient on interior defense, allowing opponents to hit 50.1% of their FGAs. Nova takes 69.5% of their FGAs inside the arc, hitting about 49.1% of the time, so this should be a good test for both squads. Rebounding under Villanova's boards seems to be pretty evenly matched. If second chance points become very significant how those matchups resolve may turn the game. Villanova likes to get to the line, nearly 1 in 4 points comes from free throws; Providence by contrast does a good job keeping opponents off the line...

Want to Beat the Friars? Then...
Shooting dominates as a critical factor for both squads. But for Villanova, effectively limiting opponent's second chance points is becoming an important key as well. Both teams appear to have difficulty winning when the pace rises to 71 or higher.
1. Defend their shooting -- When the Friar's eFG% was 50.0 or lower they were 4-5. When they were held to 44.7 or less they went 1-3.
2. Hit your shots -- Villanova's eFG% for the last 3 games has been 49.0 or higher. When the conversion rate has been that high, Providence's record is 7-7. Nova's record when they have converted at 49.0 or better is 12-1.
3. Limit their 2nd chances -- The Friars rebound about 38.0% of their misses. When Nova allows an OR% that high they have gone 1-3. Providence is 7-4 when they have been held to that rebounding rate or lower.

Finally...
...Coach Davis has gotten a senior-led squad off to a fast start in the Big East this season. A new coach, a new season, a new beginning. Perhaps. But Providence is coming off a 33 point spanking at the hands of #1 ranked Connecticut and Coach Davis' ability to remotivate his veterans will be tested.

According to calculations, this game should go for about 71 possessions, with the 'Cats taking a 5 point decision. If the possessions are that high, look for both teams to struggle, as Nova's record when the pace is that high is 3-3, while Providence, which has played 13 games with the pace > 70 is 7-6. I suspect that the 'Cats will want to see that a possession or two lower.

2007-08 Outside According to Pelton & Pomeroy

I wrote several posts in August of 2007 that identified Big East players as "inside" or "outside" players based on the difference between the number of their free throw attempts and their 3 point attempts, divided by (based on whether you value Kevin Pelton's or Ken Pomeroy's approach) their minutes played or the total of their field goal attempts. I looked at both inside and outside players in turn using the formulas developed by Ken Pomeroy, a stats guru who writes exclusively about college (D1) basketball and Kevin Pelton, a statistician who writes about pro (primarily the NBA) and international basketball. Ironically both analysts began writing (non collaboratively) for a startup website, The Basketball Prospectus last October.

This time I decided to look at outside, then inside players, juxtaposing Pomeroy's (values under the KPom column) and Pelton's (under the Pelton column below) calculation for easier comparison. The Big East's 20 highest rated "Outside" players, according to Pelton's formula (the more negative the number the greater the tendency to play wing and shoot 3s, the higher the rank), are listed below. I ranked only players who logged 35% or more of the playing available in their position.

Name	College	Min	Min%	FGA	3FGA	FTA	KPom	Pelton
Dan Fitzgerald	MU	428	43.9	102	87	13	-72.5	-17.3
Jeremy Hazell	SHU	874	67.0	331	234	93	-42.6	-16.1
Larry Wright	Johns	547	45.4	205	132	44	-42.9	-16.1
Jeff Xavier	PC	981	78.2	327	209	56	-46.8	-15.6
David Cubillan	MU	598	61.3	158	116	23	-58.9	-15.6
Kyle McAlarney	NDU	1178	88.9	383	245	68	-46.2	-15.0
Corey Stokes	VU	642	45.9	202	135	42	-46.0	-14.5
Alex Ruoff	WVU	1179	78.6	353	239	92	-41.6	-12.5
Brian McKenzie	PC	878	70.0	273	138	37	-37.0	-11.5
Andre McGee	Ville	732	65.1	184	132	49	-45.1	-11.3
Jamar Nutter	SHU	945	72.4	292	177	70	-36.6	-11.3
Deonta Vaughn	Nati	1069	82.9	408	244	128	-28.4	-10.9
Jon Wallace	GTU	985	71.9	251	159	58	-40.2	-10.3
Donte Greene	SU	1253	89.2	521	261	133	-24.6	-10.2
Dwain Williams	PC	656	52.3	190	118	51	-35.3	-10.2
Jesse Sapp	GTU	911	66.5	256	151	58	-36.3	-10.2
Ronald Ramon	Pitt	1174	78.8	260	180	62	-45.4	-10.1
Ryan Ayers	NDU	803	60.6	179	116	40	-42.5	-9.5
Jeron Griffin	RU	780	62.4	248	122	49	-29.4	-9.4
Dar Tucker	DPU	685	56.8	329	156	92	-19.5	-9.3

Seniors and players who have run through their eligibility are highlighted in yellow, transfers in olive green and Donte Greene (freshman to NBA draft) in blue. Thirteen of the 20 players are slated (as of early September) to return to play in 2008-09. Andy Rautins, a Syracuse wing guard ranked 1^st using both formulas in the 2006-07 season and sidelined by an ACL injury last season, will return to the Orange for 2008-09. Rautins should provide an outside dimension Coach Boeheim's team lacked last season. Those familiar with my posts in 2007 August, or who have followed Big East basketball over the past two seasons will no doubt recognize Dan Fitzgerald (Marquette), David Cubillian (Marquette), Brian McKenzie (Providence), Jamar Nutter (Seton Hall), Deonta Vaughn (Cincinnati) and Ron Ramon (Pittsburgh), all repeated appearances on either or both of Pelton's and Pomeroy's Top 10 Outside list from 2006-07 to appear on the 2007-08 list.

Observations & Notes...
1. Larry Wright, who ranked 2^nd on this list is the second Johnnies "Outside" player to transfer in the past two off seasons. Avery Patterson who ranked second on Pelton's list from the 2006-07 season transferred during the summer of 2007.
2. Pomeroy and Pelton calculations tend to find the same Outside players. Pelton's 7 highest ranked Big East players are also ranked among Pomeroy's first 10. Pelton and Pomeroy "agree" on eight of their first 10.
3. Kyle McAlarney of Notre Dame ranked at #6 (#4 by Pomeroy) is no surprise; Ryan Ayers, a small forward for the Irish ranked at #18 (#10 by Pomeroy) is. I always thought Ayers' shot selection was a bit more balanced.
4. Brian McKenzie (Providence) ranked in their top 10 by both Pelton and Pomeroy, Deonta Vaughn (Cincinnati) and David Cubillian (Marquette) have been ranked in two successive seasons. They will be juniors next season.
5. Villanova's own Corey Stokes was ranked #7 by Pelton and #5 by Pomeroy.