On Second Thought -- Plotting Trendlines for Big East Teams (pt 3)

Are Slumps Inevitable?
While even Top 5/10 teams seem to hit a point in the season where their performance seems to be below their usual level, will that slump produce a noticible "dip" in their offensive efficiency or a "rise" in their defensive efficiency (signs of a regession in their efficiency)? For Pittsburgh and Notre Dame, the answer in 2011 remarkably was no...neither appeared to register a detectable (per a third order polynomial trendline) regression in their efficiencies. The key is that while each lost multiple games (seven between in total between them), only Notre Dame managed to lose two consecutive games -- to Marquette (79-57) on 1/10 and to St. John's (72-54) on 1/16. Those two, double-digit losses account for neither lost The conference standings/seeds for the Big East Tournament:

	W	L	Pct.
Pittsburgh	15	3	0.833
Notre Dame	14	4	0.776
Syracuse	12	6	0.667
Louisville	12	6	0.667
St. John's	12	6	0.667
Cincinnati	11	7	0.611
West Virginia	11	7	0.611
Georgetown	10	8	0.556
Connecticut	9	9	0.500
Villanova	9	9	0.500
Marquette	9	9	0.500
Seton Hall	7	11	0.389
Rutgers	5	13	0.278
Providence	4	14	0.222
South Florida	3	15	0.167
DePaul	1	17	0.056

(3T #4) Louisville

They worked though the slump early...

The roster Coach Rick Pitino started the 2011 season with could not have been the one he envisioned the preceding April/May. If the Cardinals struggled with an uncertain roster and freshmen playing crucial roles in the offense, the offensive surge through the last half of conference play, coupled with the nearly season-long improvement in defense suggested they were poised for another deep post season run. Louisville finished with a 12-6 conference record and a bye seed. They used the bye to run to the BET Championship Game, losing by three, 69-66, to Connecticut. Their opening round loss to Morehead State, 62-61, six days later was shock and had to be, to the Cardinal Nation, an especially disappointing end to their season. Attributing that faltering finish to Rakeem Buckles' season-ending ACL injury in the Pittsburgh game (#16 on the chart above) maybe be tempting, but inconsistent offensive production from Peyton Siva, Preston Knowles and Kyle Kuric (those three combined for 21 points on 7-23 shooting in Louisville's loss to Morehead State) and freshmen "burnout" of Gorgui Dieng, coupled with season-long uneven contributions from the front court returning contingent is probably a more accurate assessment.

(2 #2) Notre Dame

The offense steadily improved?!

Though the Irish lost four conference games, including three (to Syracuse and two in a row to Marquette and St. John's) in the first third of the season, they were one of two teams -- conference regular season champion Pittsburgh was the other -- whose offensive efficiency trendline never dipped below their defensive efficiency trendline. Despite the three early losses (double-digits, all three) Notre Dame's offensive efficiency improved at a rate sufficient (and a glance at the trendline suggests a constant rate as well) to keep their offensive trendline above their (at that point...) regressing defensive trendline. That offensive caught my eye because it appears to be a nearly continuous rate of improvement (a kind of season-long opposite of Villanova's season-long offensive decline) through the entire conference season. The range of improvement is truly unusual, rising from a 101/102 range at the start of the conference season to finish above 120 (122/123?) by the end. And that rate was adjusted for the competition. If Coach Mike Brey's offensive efficiency is impressive, the rising defensive efficiency through the last third of the conference season may well have provided a hint of the problems that ended Notre Dame's season. Drawing a #2 seed in the Big East Tournament, the Irish could not stop Louisville in the semi-finals, falling by six points after an overtime period on Friday night. A #2 seed in the NCAA Tournament should have given them an easier path to the Swee Sixteen, but a cold shooting night versus Florida State (coupled with an 114.2 defensive efficiency in that 62 possession game...) 71-56, in the second round.

(1 #1) Pittsburgh

The gap between defensive efficiency and offensive efficiency was promising...

Coach Jamie Dixon's squad also registered an offensive trendline that stayed above the defensive trendline all season long, despite losing three games on their way to a #1 seed in the Big East Tournament. Strong, consistent defense managed to help the Panthers weather a mid season offensive slump that bottomed out with Ashton Gibb's injury (and absence through games #11 through #13). Talib Zanna's season-ending injury (he missed the last four games of the regular season and Pittsburgh's three post season games) was not the cause of Pittsburgh's early exit from the BET and NCAAs, but for a squad that played the maximum 31 games in the regular season, Zanna's 10+ minutes in the rotation were crucial to keep McGhee and Robinson fresh. With a combination of experienced players and a deep squad, this was the season seemed to favor Pittsburgh taking a deep NCAA run, with the Final Four a realistic possibility. The Panthers earned a #1 seed (West Region), but ran into a hot Butler squad in the second round, and suffered a one point loss, 71-70, in the second round.

(3T #5) St. John's

The double intersection...but in the wrong direction

Unlike Connecticut, Coach Steve Lavin's Johnnies' "double helix" trendline was curved in the wrong directions through the season. Stumbling into the Big East season with several unexpected out of conference losses, the veteran St. John's squad appeared to "get it" after hitting the bottom in the first half of the conference season (they were 4-5 through the first nine conference games). A strong run through the second half of the conference slate (a single loss Seton Hall in game #17 capped an 8-1 run through the last nine conference games). Though DJ Kennedy had not yet ended his career with an injury, the Johnnies were already showing signs of a late season slump. Dwight Hardy, a wing complement to Kennedy, was already having problems scoring efficiently, relying more on volume shooting to meet his quota for points in the St. John's system. Kennedy's injury hastened the Red Storm's exit from the Big East Tournament (a semi-final loss to Syracuse after eliminating Rutgers in the quarter-final round), and set the stage for a bookend loss to a West Coast Conference team in the first round of the NCAA Tournament. St. John's opened the early season ESPN-sponsored television marathon in November with a televised loss Gonzaga's conference mate, St. Mary's.

(3T #3) Syracuse

Evidence of a mid-season slump...

Few expected the Orange to have a season like 2010, but Coach Beoheim's squad managed to exceed the consensus predictions for their conference record. After a solid 12-6 conference record and pull down a double-bye (a #3 seed) for the Big East Tournament. Having weathered a mid-season slump (their record in games #6 through #14 was 3-6), the Orange seemed to be poised for a deep post season run in the Big East Tournament, if not the NCAAs. Syracuse was eliminated in the semi-final round at Madison Square Garden by a streaking Connecticut team (76-71). The Selection Committee did them no favors in the NCAAs when they matched them with conference mate Marquette in the second round. Despite being favored, the Orange lost by four to Buzz Williams' Golden Eagles, 66-62.

Post Game: Pittsburgh at St. John's -- We're Baaack!

Red Storm Rising
For two hours the cheers rolled down to the court like thunder as #4 Pittsburgh and St. John's traded buckets and defensive stops. The house exploded when the Johnnies retook the lead 58-56 on Dwight Hardy's second free throw, but the Pittsburgh fans responded in kind when Travon Woodall knocked down Pittsburgh's only three pointer of the afternoon that did not come from the hand of Ashton Gibbs. The Red Storm brought the ball up and called timeout. 0:11 left and a one point game, Dwight Hardy drove to the lane passing Gilbert Brown, he had to move left and down to the baseline. Brown shadowed him, staying between the guard and the basket, but Hardy piroetted (Coach Lavin's words...) past the Panther forward and Brown let him go, believing the vaunted Pitt lane defense behind him would rotate over to cover the guard. No help came, but Hardy had driven too far, and positioned under the basket, had lost his clear shot. Laying his arm out he flipped the ball up with an underhand motion. The ball bounced tentatively on the edge of he rim before dropping through. The Garden exploded, sending a wall of sound down to the court. 60-59 St. John's. "...a tough shot...give (him) credit for making the shot" said Jamie Dixon after the game.

Like many Saturday noon games, the crowd was slow to assemble, and if the cheers during the line up announcement was louder than usual, the cheer that greeted Hardy's first (and only) three pointer, the response to a Gary McGhee put back of Travon Woodall's runner that had put Pitt up 2-0 from the tip, was several decibels above the line up announcement, and a precusor of the support to come. Pittsburgh's pregame notes described Madison Square Garden as the Panthers "home away from home", and touted Pitts 26-11 record in the building since 2001, but the cheer that filled the arena after Hardy's long jumper left no doubt the players in home whites were indeed the home team. With Hardy's bucket the Johnnies opened a 14-5 run that stunned Division 1's #4 team and left them reeling through much of the first half. Physical, deliberate defense-oriented play characterized the first half, with Pittsburgh trailing by margins as high as nine. Facing a hostile and active road crowd seemed to unnerve the Panther squad and their head coach, Jamie Dixon, who drew a technical with 5:05 left in the first half. And the referee crew too seemed affected as they closed the half with a series of bizarre calls that put two technicals on St. John's (one on Coach Steve Lavin and another on guard DJ Kennedy), and gave the Panthers four straight free throw attempts, the ball and a one point lead with 0:25 on the clock. The 27-26 score held through the end of the half.

The breakdown by halves...

	1st	2nd	Game
Pace	31.5	29.4	60.9
	St. John's				Pittsburgh
	1st	2nd	Game		1st	2nd	Game
Rating	82.6	115.7	98.6		85.7	108.9	96.9
eFG%	52.6	40.5	46.3		45.7	60.9	53.3
TORate	31.8	10.2	21.6		23.7	28.7	26.3
OR%	22.2	33.3	26.7		27.3	28.6	28.1
FTA/FGA	47.4	109.5	80.0		52.2	26.1	39.1
FTM/FGA	31.6	81.0	57.5		26.1	17.4	21.7
ARate	66.7	62.5	64.7		77.8	58.3	66.7
Blk%	4.3	0.0	2.5		8.7	0.0	4.3
Stl%	14.8	3.3	11.6		8.9	18.0	13.0
PPWS	1.12	1.06	1.09		0.94	1.24	1.08
2FG%	43.8	41.2	42.4		40.0	61.5	50.0
3FG%	66.7	25.0	42.9		37.5	40.0	38.9
FT%	66.7	73.9	71.9		50.0	66.7	55.6
%2FG	53.8	41.2	46.7		44.4	50.0	47.5
%3FG	23.1	8.8	15.0		33.3	37.5	35.6
%FT	23.1	50.0	38.3		22.2	12.5	16.9

The pace was Pittsburgh's all the way. Neither team managed more than six points on fast break opportunities. Ashton Gibbs' third foul -- he grabbed DJ Kennedy after the St. John's guard picked Travon Woodall's pocket and was closing in as a one man fast break -- was the favored tactic to prevent the easy, close in buckets. Gibbs, whose return to the Pittsburgh rotation was overshadowed by the loss, scored a game 26 points 8-14 (6-9, 2-4) and 4-4 shooting for a remarkable 67.9% eFG% and 1.64 PPWS.

Halftime Adjustments
Both teams did a great job holding the other to <1.00 point per possession through the first half (divide the ratings in table above by 100). Though the pace did not change (it became even more deliberate), both teams scored afar more easily. For Pittsburgh, points came through field goal conversion as suggested by their 60.9% eFG% (12-23 from the field). St. John's by contrast had a field goal conversion rate reminiscent of last season, but compensated with reduced turnovers (turnover rate was 10.2%) and trips to the line (their FTA rate was 109.5%), which outnumbered their field goal attempts.

Notes and Observations
1. Johnnies' guard, and Pittsburgh native DJ Kennedy, a graduate of the famed Schenley High School, picked up three fouls in the first half -- the third a technical after the guard made a face in response to his second foul call -- and played only eight minutes in the second half. Kennedy, who scored 11 points picked up his fourth foul less than two minutes into the second half, and sat for much of the second frame, taking one of St. John's most consistent scoring threats off the floor.
2. Rehabbed Ashton Gibbs was the only Pittsburgh player to score more than 10 points. Gary McGhee, saddled with his fourth foul at the 10 minute mark of the second half and forced to sit for nearly seven minutes, scored seven points. Nasir Robinson and Travon Wooodall, both also carrying four fouls, scored six points.
3. St. John's remarkably matched Pitt on the boards, snagging 31 loose balls. Dixon used a rotation of Talib Zanna, Lamar Patterson and Dante Taylor with Robinson and McGhee. Dixon's problem was rebounding versus scoring. With McGhee and Robinson he had scorers, but the tandem seemed less effective on the boards than Taylor with McGhee. Taylor grabbed five boards in 19 minutes of play to Robinson's two boards in 29 minutes.
4. St. John's was paced by Dwight Hardy who scored 19 points in 32 minutes of play. Other double digit Johnnies included the foul plagued Kennedy (11 points) and Justin Burrell, whose size and length posed a match-up problem for Pitt. Burrell, who logged 34 minutes of play off the bench hit 15 points and pulled down eight rebounds.

Lucky Charms?
"Yes! Every time we credential you, we win!" was St. John's SID's response to Rush the Court's request for courtside access to run a live blog when Pittsburgh visited St. John's at Madison Square Garden.

Because This is a Villanova Blog...
The St. John's staff wore suits, no ties, and white running shoes to the game. This has become the preferred attire since the Coaches vs. Cancer "shoeless" game last month. Coach Lavin was asked if he was assuming a Louie Carnesecca-like superstition given the Johnnies' recent run of good games. "No" he replied and talked about realizing how much more relaxed he was without the tie. When asked if he was really willing to concede the "Best Dressed Big East Coach" battle to Villanova's Jay Wright, Lavin chuckled "Jay Wright is George Clooney" he replied, confessing "I am attracted to Jay Wright. And my wife knows I am attracted to Jay Wright..." The laughter that rolled through the room was easy and genuine. The winning team's press conference is always more fun.

Earlier in the presser Justin Burrell was asked about tension in the St. John's huddle at the under five minute timeout with the Johnnies down two. What plays were discussed the forward was asked. "None" he replied. "The coach told us to enjoy ourselves". The response begged for a followup, and to Lavin, who entered the room and took the podium after Burrell and Hardy departed, this was the first topic touched. "A matter of miscommunication..." replied Lavin "They were obviously down as the guys on the court walked over to the huddle...I decided to try to lift their spirits rather than go over specific plays..." His next lines brought back memories of Coach Massimino's now famous "pasta" half time speech during the Wildcats' Regional Final versus North Carolina. "...I told them to enjoy the moment. Here they were, playing the game they love, with their best friends, in front of their fans in Madison Square Garden. It does not get better than this...go out and enjoy playing the game..."

Numbers...Next...
Pittsburgh takes their third loss of the season and second in conference play, putting their record at 24-3 and 12-2 respectively. The Panthers' road trip continues with a stop in Morgantown, WV to face the 'Eers on Thursday. St. John's record now stands at 17-9 overall and 9-5 in conference play.

Guest Contributor Ray Floriani: Coaches vs Cancer Finals

by Ray Floriani

NEW YORK CITY -- The championship of the Coaches vs. Cancer final at Madison Square Garden, came down to the final possession. Down two, Texas tossed, or should it be said forced, an on the run prayer that missed by a wide margin and Pitt emerged victorious 68-66. The Scores:

Consolation
Illinois		Maryland
80		76

Finals
Pittsburgh		Texas
68		66

Madison Square Garden
on a Friday afternoon

The Four Factors in the consolation:

		FTA
	eFG%	FGA	OR%	TO%
Maryland	47	19	47	22
Illinois	55	23	31	17

The game was played for 72 possessions. The offensive efficiency for each team computed to:

	Illinois	Maryland
Off. Efficiency	111	106

In one night Maryland improved dramatically in the rebounding department. Terrapins had a significant 20-11 edge on the offensive glass. Illinois' ability to care for the ball, even facing some full court and three quarter court pressure was significant. They shot very well, going 10 of 19 from beyond the arc. Leading the way from downtown were Demetri McCamey (3-3 from three) 20 points and D.J. Richardson (3-6 from three) 9 points. Maryland's Jordan Williams did not score and had 2 boards in nine first half minutes but came alive after intermission finishing with 15 points 13 rebounds.

The tale of Jordan Williams' two halves by efficiency...

	Half
	1st	2nd	Game
Efficiency	-1	22	21

Recorded Maryland's first half possessions by time with the following chart showing the results:

Time	Poss.	TOs	Pts	PPP
<15 seconds	21	6	21	1.00
=> 15 seconds	13	3	15	1.15
Total	34	9	36	1.06

[Note -- Poss. is possessions, TOs is turnovers and PPP is points per possession computed as Pts/Poss.]
Normally as possessions progress the chances of turnovers are greater. In Maryland's case they committed most of the TOs early on. Chalk that up to a few transition opportunities that ended without a shot. Interestingly, Gary Williams' club was more efficient after the 15 second mark. Partially due to the fact as the clock winds down they have a special set(s) to ensure a good attempt from the field. And they are actually more cautious as the shot clock winds down.

Your VBTN contributor was not invited

The Four Factors for the final:

		FTA
	eFG%	FGA	OR%	TO%
Texas	48	36	39	26
Pittsburgh	48	23	36	17

The championship game was played for 66 possessions; the offensive efficiencies were...

	Pittsburgh	Texas
Off. Efficiency	103	102

Scoreboard tells it all

The telling rate was in the turnover category. The Longhorns did everything else, out rebound Pitt (which few teams do), got to the line and shot a percentage that matched their opposition. But 17 turnovers in a 65 possession contest is a killer. Especially in a one possession game. In the dreaded TO category it seems Rick Barnes' club 'shared the wealth'. Cory Joseph and Jordan Hamilton led with three each but everyone of the nine players Texas used, had at least one. In Hamilton's defense the 6-7 sophomore swingman led all scorers with 28 points and proved to be an inside/outside matchup problem all night long.

Talib Zanna had an impressive semifinal but the Pitt frosh had only 2 points and 6 boards in a 15 minute foul plagued final. These things will happen but the impressive thing is Pitt has a number of players who can step up on the given night. Ashton Gibbs led the Panthers with 24 points (19 in the second half) while running mate Travon Woodall added 7 points 5 assists. The Panthers will capitalize on opposition errors and can beat you in many different ways.

Recorded the Pitt possessions by time once again. In the breakdown I just limited it to turnovers, points and points per possession. For calculating purposes an offensive rebound was an extension of the possession. Pitt had only seven offensive boards, so a great deal of their 'extended' possessions of 15 seconds or more were due to the Texas defense.

The First Half...
Time	Poss.	TOs	Pts	PPP
<15 seconds	21	3	22	1.05
=> 15 seconds	13	3	9	0.69
Total	34	6	31	0.91

[Note -- Poss. is possessions, TOs is turnovers and PPP is points per possession computed as Pts/Poss.]

The Second Half & Totals
Time	Poss.	TOs	Pts	PPP
<15 seconds	22	2	25	1.14
=> 15 seconds	14	3	12	0.86
2nd Half	36	5	37	1.03
Game	70	11	68	0/97

The number of possessions sometimes deviates from the formula. Many times the formula for possessions is right on the money or one or two off. Still, it is a great way to calculate the possessions if you do not chart every one the 'long hand' method. Also in charting, the person charting can make a clerical error, or two.

As the chart shows, the Panthers' points per possessions was more effective when the possession ended prior to 15 seconds. Those sequences include transition opportunities that were converted and good looks in the early offense. Pitt had a number of those the first ten minutes before Texas dug in and forced the opposition to make the extra passes and extend each Pitt trip down the floor.

In the post game presser Rick Barnes said the first 10 minutes were the key. "We came out a little stagnant especially on defense." With a young club, getting to the final with a strong showing against the nation's number four team was significant."

Jamie Dixon noted how the Travon Woodall-Ashon Gibbs (both NJ products with Woodall from St. Anthony's and Gibbs Seton Hall Prep) backcourt was very effective in the second half. Dixon also was impressed with the Panthers' balance. "We have 11 guys who contribute," he said. "One night someone will break out another night it could be someone else."

Ashton Gibbs receives the MVP award

Dixon was asked by Lenn Robbins of the NY Post to comment on critics contention that Pitt 'wins ugly'. "They are probably looking at me," Dixon quipped. The Panthers mentor went on to note how Pitt has been one of the most offensively efficient teams around the last few years. In '09 the average possessions for Pitt in Big East play was 67. Last season, with a lot of new faces, the pace slowed a bit to 64. Entering the Texas game Pitt averaged 71 possessions for their first four contests. If the break or early offense shot is there they will take it. You can chalk the slower paced games, especially in the Big East, as a product of their suffocating defense. The only 'ugly' in Pitt is what opponents see in having to face that trademark defense. Dixon summed it best saying, "better to win ugly than lose pretty."

Both nights at the Garden the Panthers won. And it was pretty impressive.

All Tournament
	Team
Ashton Gibbs (MVP)	Pittsburgh
Trevon Woodall	Pittsburgh
Jordan Hamilton	Texas
Jordan Williams	Maryland
Demetrius McCamey	Illinois

Pitt Panthers celebrate

2010-11 Preview -- Pittsburgh Panthers

Too Busy for the Details?
The 2009 Panthers made me a Jamie Dixon believer. Picking the Panthers to finish in hte second quartile in 2010 was a positive expression of faith, or so I thought. The 2011 edition has four returning starters, three very experienced rotation players and a boatload of promising newcomers. Returning players will be pushed by the freshmen early. Keeping everyone happy may be Coach Dixon's toughest job.  Prognosis -- A 1st quartile finish.

3 Years At a Glance

	Returning...
	2011	2010	2009
%Min	84.4	42.5	66.1
%Pts	79.7	48.2	48.7
%FGM	85.4	31.7	72.6
%3FGM	84.5	46.7	44.0
%OReb	92.6	24.4	82.9
%DReb	87.0	36.4	76.8
%TReb	88.7	32.1	79.1

A #3 finish in conference while returning only 42.5% of the minutes and so little of the rebounding is surprising for a Big East team, but a testimony to the resilience of the Pittsburgh program under Coach Dixon. The Panthers can stockpile and develop the talented stream of recruits they attract each year without regressing much in regular season play. The Panthers have won the conference regular season and tournaments under Coach Dixon. The next hurdle to clear is the NCAA Tournament Elite Eight.

	According to Pomeroy...
	2009-10		2008-09		2007-08
	#	Rank	#	Rank	#	Rank
BE Pace	62.3	16	66.8	9	64.2	12
BE Off Eff.	109.3	6	117.7	1	109.2	3
BE Def Eff.	103.4	5	101.6	5	104.7	11
BE Def eFG%	46.3	2	49.0	7	50.9	13
BE Def TOv%	15.3	15	17.1	12	19.2	10
BE Def Reb%	66.0	7	71.9	1	66.2	10
BE Def FTR%	35.6	6	33.7	8	31.7	5

Certainly in keeping with the offensive philosophy, but perhaps consistent with the staff's preference for larger, longer front court players, Pitt executes one of the more deliberate offenses in the conference. While #16 is on the low side (that spot is usually reserved for perimeter-oriented DePaul, Georgetown or West Virginia under John Beilein) it may be attributed to evolving roles in the offense and many opponents' difficulty developing scoring opportunities against Pitt's defense. The revelation is that Pittsburgh does not have an "elite" defense. Pace plays a strong role in opponents' low scores. Though he used the Atlantic 10 conference to frame his point, contributor Ray Floriani illustrated in his article over at College Chalktalk that the differential between a team's offensive and defensive efficiency often determines where it ranks within the conference. A point Pittsburgh makes year in and year out. Defensive efficiency may serve as Pitt's "floor" while their offense might be their "ceiling", but it is the difference that determines their rank. And they consistently rank in the upper division, often among the best in the Big East.

The defensive numbers are not, as I expected, dominating at all. Their defensive rebounding rate in 2009 hinted at how tough they could be at that end of the floor, but taken as a whole over the three seasons, there is no single signature statistic that identifies a "Pittsburgh Defense".

	For the Record...
	2009-10			2008-09			2007-08
	W	L	Pct.	W	L	Pct.	W	L	Pct.
Overall	25	9	0.735	31	5	0.861	27	10	0.730
Big East	13	5	0.722	15	3	0.833	10	8	0.556
Post Season?	NCAA Rnd #2			NCAA Rnd #4			NCAA Rnd #2

The Panthers' Nucleus
Coach Jamie Dixon's biggest task this season will be keeping everyone healthy and focused on the staff's objectives. Freshman season is over for the front court, time to see how good they really can be. Gary McGhee is a solid presence whose lack of speed will not throw Pittsburgh's offensive or defensive systems out of synch. Coach Dixon's style of play places a premium on ball control, pace and physical play. Fans fondly refer to the Panther defense as a boa constictor, and McGhee and Taylor can guarantee that the lane will be crowded and closed to most half court sets and pesky 6-0 guards who venture into the lane.

On Offense
Player	Min%	Ortg	Poss%	Shot%	eFG%	OR%	PPWS	FTR%
Ashton Gibbs	84.7	116.2	21.4	26.1	49.4	1.5	1.12	38.7
Brad Wanamaker	79.6	105.8	24.7	21.0	48.0	6.3	1.08	57.8
Nasir Robinson	61.0	97.0	18.2	17.7	50.8	9.9	1.00	31.6
Gary McGhee	59.1	109.3	16.0	14.1	62.3	12.1	1.24	53.6
Travon Woodall	49.4	93.1	19.6	17.3	44.5	1.6	0.96	29.7
Gilbert Brown	39.3	110.9	23.2	23.5	56.0	4.7	1.19	50.3
Dante Taylor	34.1	115.0	16.2	14.4	58.4	16.1	1.18	68.5

McGhee will never be the #1 option on offense, but the junior center will always get his share of points from putbacks and the occasional low post entry pass. Dante Taylor is also an exceptional offensive rebounder, and will complement McGhee well as a second, (slightly) speedier low post presence. Both are very efficient, in part because they know when to take their shot and when to pass the ball out to the perimeter. Gilbert Brown has been a four (five?) year enigma for the Panthers. Athletic and talented, between injuries, academic problems and inconsistency his flashes have brought smiles to the staff, media and fans, while his game-to-game level of play brings head shakes and heartburn. This is his last chance to impress, and Pittsburgh could have a 38 or 39 game season if he does.

On Defense
Player	Min%	DR%	Ast%	TO%	Stl%	Blk%
Ashton Gibbs	84.7	7.7	11.8	10.0	0.3	1.4
Brad Wanamaker	79.6	14.0	31.3	21.3	0.9	2.3
Nasir Robinson	61.0	16.0	13.4	20.9	1.4	1.0
Gary McGhee	59.1	20.3	4.9	21.7	7.5	0.6
Travon Woodall	49.4	11.1	31.8	27.2	1.1	1.7
Gilbert Brown	39.3	10.9	17.9	17.9	1.0	1.3
Dante Taylor	34.1	15.4	1.8	14.8	4.4	2.0

Areas for improvement for guards/wings Travon Woodall and Bradley Wanamaker include turnovers. Each gets enough possesions (19.6 and 24.7 respectively) that turnover rates above 20% can drag down Pitt's offensive efficiency. J.J. Richardson, a 6-7, 235 pound forward and walk-on senior Nick Rivers round out the returning players.

Significant Additions
This year's entering class features recruits at both back court spots and the wing. All are very good, but they, along with a handful of red shirt players from 2010, will be have to be integrated into an already deep rotation. Among the players entering, J.J. Moore might be the most higly regarded. The 6-5, 200 pound wing who prepped at the South Kent School in Connecticut will see minutes behind Gil Brown. Moore scored the team-high as a starter against the Ireland National Team last August. A good start to his career as a Panther. Point guard-in-waiting is Isaiah Epps, a 6-2, 160 pound lead guard out of Plainfield, NJ by way of Hargrave Military Academy did not take the Ireland Tour last summer, but he should definitely see minutes in the back court roatation in 2011. 6-7, 200 pound forward Aron Nwankwo from Baltimore, Maryland and 6-4, 200 pound sg Cameron Wright from Cleveland, Ohio also made the Ireland Tour and took advantage of the structured practice and exhibition games. Both should see a few minutes in the early season. If Pittsburgh's Ireland Tour last August is any indication, the 6-9 225 pound red shirt freshmen Talib Zanna and his wing teammate Lamar Patterson, a 6-5 220 pound wing from Lancaster, Pennsylvania by way of St. Benedict's in New Jersey, will definitely see regular minutes in the front court rotation this season.

Explode If...
Define explode. Regular season conference title? And Big East Tournament Champion? A #1 seed in the NCAA's? Elite Eight? Final Four?
1. The team is deep enough to sustain an injury/absence or two from just about any position in the rotation and not miss a beat (almost, see below). The squad has to practice and play hard, but play together.

Implode If...
1. With a very talented and deep squad, the problem is finding a role and playing time for all of the important parts. Friction between the younger and older members of the squad could undermine squad cohesion. The staff will have to look for the signs and defuse early.
2. The team has been identified early and widely as "the team to beat", both in the conference and nationally. Unlike 2010, they will sneak up on no one. Can the team adjust to life continuously in the limelight? The expectations can be difficult to meet sometimes, and different teams react in different ways.
3. Depth is good, but the two positions where an extended absence of the starter could prove to be relatively more difficult to overcome immediately would be at the point where Ashton Gibbs starts and the low post where Gary McGhee rules. The team is well-stocked at both positions, but Gibbs and McGhee have emerged as leaders. Replacements can make up the stats, but developing the leadership characteristics from either the replacements or other members of the squad (Brown? Wannamaker?) may take a bit longer.

Crucial Run/Bellweather Games
If the Panthers are indeed in the hunt for the Big East title this season they will start fast and keep going. As pod hosts for the 2K Sports Classic/Coaches vs Cancer Invitational, Pitt should, despite the fact that advancing to Madison Square Garden is automatic, sweep the three game preliminary set. Of the three, Rhode Island will be the most challenging opponent, as the Rams are projected to finish in the upper division of the A-10 Conference this season. Two BCS opponents, Maryland followed by either Illinois or Texas (most likely the 'Horns) will be waiting for Pitt in MSG. The top team in the Big East should be able to take any combination of the three. Coach Dixon's squad drew Tennessee in the Big East-SEC Challenge. The Panther will host the Vols, on December 11 in downtown Pittsburgh, as the featured matchup for a double header that includes a Rutgers-Auburn game. If Villanova faces Tennessee in the NIT Tip-Off, analysts will have a nice common opponent comparison to chew on in the month before conference play commences. Unlike earlier seasons, Coach Dixon will clear the traditional local rivalry games (Duquesne and Robert Morris) before the start of conference play. 12-0 going into their Connecticut game on 12/27 ought to have Pittsburgh in the AP Top 5. 11-1 might bruise Panther pride, but would no impact on the conference race or title prospects (regular or BET). A 9-3 record (or worse, given the competition) would bring a torrent of "What's Wrong With Pittsburgh/the Big East?" stories.

The schedule maker dealt Pittsburgh South Florida, Villanova and Backyard Brawl rival West Virginia as 2011 mirrors. The trio may be one of the tougher draws based on last season's Pythagorean Winning Percentage (PWP), but the Panthers should log no worse than a 4-2 record (sweep USF, draw with 'Nova & WVU). A 4 game run that stretchs through 10 days starting in the second week in January, should provide an early hint about the Panthers' prospects. Pitt opens the run by hosting Marquette, then takes a road trip to DC for a game with Georgetown and returns to Steel Town for two games in 48 hours, versus Seton Hall and Syracuse. Georgetown has been previewed as a First Quartile team by most publications, the road game, set in that context, and with four days of preparation, should be even more difficult. A 4-0 record through that sequence, coming on the heels of a 2-0 start (Connecticut and Providence) would definitely put Pitt in the conversation about #1 seeds (for the NCAA). If the Panthers can break even on a two game road trip through Morgantown and Philadelphia in early February they should be in a good position to close the season with no worse than the top see in the Big East Conference. Their 2/12 date with Villanova, the backend of that road trip, will be the featured event in ESPN's College GameDay Series. Should things go badly on the Mainline, Pittsburgh will have the opportunity to return the favor in their season-closing match with Villanova at the Petersen on March 5. Split that series with Villanova and have those two end the season #1/#2 in conference and the ink and electronic media will tout the probable rubber match in the Garden a week later. And both are probably looking at #1 seeds on Selection Sunday.

Further Reading
I tracked player and team efficiencies during the Panthers' Ireland Tour last month, and provided a few post game breakdowns of the team's performance. Only the first game box score gave a hint about how much time each player logged, so it was the only game where I could devevelop possession-based statistics for each player who logged time in the game...
The Panthers' first win over the Irish Natioal Team
Pittsburgh's win over a collection of players from four Southern Ireland professional clubs.
Pittsburh's second win over the Irish National Team
The Panthers' win over the Dart Killister club. Dart Killister is one of the better teams in the Ireland Premier League. After rolling over the first three teams, Pitt found the last three teams a bit more challenging.
Pittsburgh's win over the Melbourne Tiger, an Australian professional team in Ireland for a summer festival and tune-up for their season.
The Panthers' win over the English National Team. An odd game statistically, as the English shot more efficiently and got to the line more than the Panthers. The game difference came down to turnovers and rebounding, two areas where Pitt really separated themselves from the Brits.

Departures -- Louisville Thru Pittsburgh

The Clearing Fog...Part 2 of 4
Before attempting to predict the shape of teams (and the conference) going into next season, I want to catalog the departures (graduating seniors, transfers and NBA draft hopefuls) and then consider the impact the departing players (and coaches) will have on the offense and defense of each program. If I have overlooked or misclassified anyone, please let me know. Identifying academic casualties will have to come later; schools are reluctant to make official announcements about grades (privacy issues), and summer school has yet to run it's course.

Louisville

Player	Class	Pos	Status
Reginald Delk	SR	G	Grad
Edgar Sosa	SR	PG	Grad
Jerry Smith	SR	G	Grad
Samardo Samuels	SO	F	NBA-In

In addition to solid rotation player Reginald Delk, the Cardinals lose three starters from the squad that finished 20-13 (11-7) and went to the NCAAs (eliminated in the first round, 77-62, by California). Were Edgar Sosa and Coach Pitino ever on the same page? Fans may debate whether Sosa is addition by subtraction, but there is near unanimous opinion that Samuels to the draft will hurt the front court. Jerry Smith never seemed to get on track in 2010. I will leave to Louisville fans to speculate whether his and Terrence Jennings' arrest in Jeffersonville, IN proved to be the "one too many distraction" for the team. Terrence Jennings will have the best opportunity to show what he can do in the low post next season, as will rising sophomore Payton Silva at the point. To this point the veterans have been complement players to two very talented classes (2009 and 2010); the staff will no doubt look for leaders from among those who will return next season. Coach Pitino brought in long-time friend and one-time assistant Ralph Willard to reshape the Cardinals' defense. Next season may be the best opportunity to see if the veteran pair still have their touch.

Marquette

Player	Class	Pos	Status
Maurice Acker	SR	G	Grad
David Cubillan	SR	G	Grad
Lazar Hayward	SR	F	Grad
Yousoupha Mbao	FR	C	Trans

Acker and Cubillan have been servicable rotation players, each of whom has had a good game or two to remember in years to come. But Lazar Hayward is a huge loss for the Golden Eagles, as virtually every game last season was a big game for him. Marquette may well continue to be plagued by the absence of a Big East-level low post player, but they will be well stocked with back court players and wings. Coach Buzz Williams has had two very (and, I have to confess, for me very unexpectedly) good seasons. He is a favorite, to fans of Marquette, the administration, and to fans of Big East basketball. The style is constant motion and energetic; Williams has players who will play that style again next season.

Notre Dame

Player	Class	Pos	Status
Tim Andree	SR	F	Grad
Ben Hansbrough	SR	G	Grad
Luke Harangody	SR	F	Grad
Tory Jackson	SR	G	Grad
Jonathan Peoples	SR	G	Grad

Tim Andree emerged to have a solid senior season, while Hanbrough and Peoples were both solid rotation contributors. Tory Jackson and Luke Harangody, four year starters will be hard to replace. Harangody was the Big East POY in 2009, but returned to lead the Irish (with teammate Jackson at the point) back to the NCAAs after a year in the NIT. Coach Mike Brey listened to offers from Oregon in April, but will return to South Bend to retool the team for next season. During his tenure at Notre Dame, Coach Brey has fashioned Notre Dame into one of the most consistently efficient offenses, and toughest home court opponents in the Big East. Expect it again next season.

Pittsburgh

Player	Class	Pos	Status
Chase Adams	SR	G	Grad
Jermaine Dixon	SR	G	Grad

Adams transferred in from Centenary late in August. While Coach Dixon worked him into the rotation, he was, as was understood at the time of his transfer, more an insurance policy than an impact player. Jermaine Dixon was a well regarded contributor, mostly on the wing. Gilbert Brown and others will be available next season. Coach Dixon continues to be one of the "most dropped" names whenever a BCS coaching position opens, and this off season was no different, as ADs from DePaul to Oregon "checked" with him before moving on to their eventual choices. Coach Dixon has a lot returning next season.

Guest Contributor Ray Floriani: Breaking Down Two Seton Hall Games

by Ray Floriani

NEWARK, NJ - In the space of four days Seton Hall came up with two note worthy Big East wins at the Prudential Center.
First the Louisville game won by the Hall 80-77 on Thursday : In a 68 possession (Louisville 69 SHU 66) possession game, the Efficiency and Factors:

	Off		FTA
	Eff	eFG%	FGA	OReb%	TO%
Louisville	112	49	22	45	17
Seton Hall	121	57	31	47	20

Both teams had a high efficiency on the offensive end. Louisville has had some problems on the defensive end. The effort defense wise, was not a stellar effort by the Hall but they did do a nice job limiting post threat Samardo Samuels to just nine points. Edgar Sosa led the Cardinals with 15 points.

Both teams attempted 25 free throws and the Hall had the higher FT rate hitting 17 to the 14 of Louisville. Again the charity stripe is another sore spot for the Cards per coach Rick Pitino.

Hall had a balanced effort with five players in double figures and was led by Jeremy Hazell with 25 points. Hazell played a strong all around game as he added 5 rebounds and defended well.

Hall led by 13 with just under five minutes to play and barely held off the visitors as they closed strong taking advantage of several late Pirate turnovers.

Not a vintage Louisville team that is expected to play deep into March but a nice win over a Rick Pitino team, “that fights to the end,” per Gonzalez.

Seton Hall vs Pitt
On Sunday afternoon, Seton Hall defeated ninth ranked Pitt 64-61.

The factors and efficiency in a 66 possession (Pitt 66 SHU 65) game.

	Off		FTA
	Eff	eFG%	FGA	OReb%	TO%
Pitt	92	39	41	49	30
Seton Hall	99	46	21	26	15

Interesting that Gonzalez felt this was a slower game than the Louisville one. It was by about two possessions. The difference was more perception as Louisville and the Hall got out on occasion and ran. The Pitt game was a classic ‘grind it out’ half court affair.

Hall eventually beat Pitt at their own game with solid defense. It’s evident in the effective field goal mark and TO rate. Panthers had 20 TOs despite the Hall not full court pressing.

Ashton Gibbs of Pitt led all scorers with 23 points. Gibbs was 14 of 14 from the line and only 4 of 15 from the field.

Herb Pope was a huge factor inside. He had the touches shooting 8 of 12 finishing with a team high 19 points 9 boards.

Panthers, to no surprise, were tough on the boards. Raw figures saw a 39-25 rebounding edge, 16-8 on the offensive glass. Their board work was a major factor that kept them in and allowed them to battle back from an eleven point first half and eight point second half deficit.

Jeremy Hazell was limited to 16 minutes with foul trouble. He finished with 9 points and made a few big plays in the stretch.

Win was first over a top ten team during Gonzalez’s tenure. It capped a big momentum sweep as the Hall now faces South Florida, Villanova and Pitt their next three games, all on the road.

Pitt is 15-4 (5-2). Seton Hall improved to 12-6 (3-4).

The first minute:
A cue regarding tempo and interestingly, what was to transpire.

1. Hazell missed shot.
2. Pitt turnover
3. Theodore 10 foot jumper.
4. Foul Hazel… (possession continued)
2-0 SHU

“We need a better understanding of how to play. We are trying to get better but still have improvements to make.” - Pitt coach Jamie Dixon

“This is a great win. What Jamie Dixon ha done at Pitt is off the charts. I really think our West Virginia and Syracuse games earlier helped us win this game.” - Seton Hall coach Bobby Gonzalez

Music Trivia.
Yours truly is pretty good on 60s and 70s songs. In the Hall they had an area where you guess the song and win. The song listened to was an easy one, ‘Moondance’ by Van Morrison. The prize, a small box of valentine candy.

Name That Tune

Preview 2009-10 -- Pittsburgh Panthers

Too Busy for the Details?
Over the past 5 seasons Pitt has watched outstanding players come and go. Coach Dixon has repeatedly faced the challenge of replacing those players even as the program maintained a high performance level. The Panthers have missed drawing a bye seed only once in the Dixon Era. Most seasons the Panthers barely missed a beat. This season the challenge will be to replace 4 starters in a lineup that finished tied (with Louisville) for #1 in the conference and drew a #1 seed in the NCAAs. How far will the Panthers fall? In the Coach Dixon Era, #6 seems to be the floor. Prognosis -- A 2nd quartile finish.

3 Years At a Glance

	Returning...
	2010	2009	2008
%Min	42.7	66.1	85.2
%Pts	33.4	71.1	86.4
%FGM	31.7	72.6	86.9
%3FGM	46.7	44.0	79.5
%OReb	24.4	82.9	94.8
%DReb	36.4	76.8	91.8
%TReb	32.1	79.1	92.8

If my post on Three Year Trends bears out, Panther fans can rejoice at the relatively small percentage of returning minutes, after all Pitt runs counter to the declining minutes trend -- next season should be a big (upward) jump in the team's winning percentage. Celebrations however, are probably premature; the 2010 Panthers have to replace over 2/3s of their points, field goals made and defensive rebounds, a direct reflection of their losses at the #4, #5 and #1. Point guard may be especially difficult to replace on the fly. In the past that transition has been handled almost like a relay race -- the old and new spend a season together (the replacement takes the #2 spot and works in tandem with the departing #1). In 2009 Ashton Gibbs, most likely the #2 of the future played with Levance Fields, as Travon Woodall (most likely to get the early nod) took a red shirt, and received no game experience. Front court replacements will come from the (deep) bench and incoming freshmen.

	According to Pomeroy...
	2008-09		2007-08		2006-07
	#	Rank	#	Rank	#	Rank
Overall ORtg	122.2	2	118.7	8	118.4	12
Overall DRtg	92.0	35	93.3	54	94.4	26
Big East ORtg	117.7	1	109.2	3	105.5	5
Big East DRtg	101.6	5	104.7	11	94.9	3
Four Factors -- Overall
All Off. eFG%	52.9	42	50.8	135	52.9	60
All Off. TOv%	18.0	44	18.1	27	18.2	32
All Off. OReb%	42.0	2	39.3	12	37.2	52
All Off. FTA/FGA	33.0	261	36.1	187	36.1	177
All Def. eFG%	46.5	59	47.9	79	46.1	35
All Def. TOv%	18.8	269	20.5	183	28.5	302
All Def. OReb%	29.7	45	33.2	183	31.7	83
All Def. FTA/FGA	30.2	42	28.6	35	31.2	63
Four Factors -- Big East
BE Off. eFG%	54.6	1	50.5	6	51.2	4
BE Off. TOv%	17.2	4	17.7	5	19.6	8
BE Off. OReb%	41.8	1	38.4	1	35.9	6
BE Off. FTA/FGA	30.3	11	34.6	12	42.0	2
BE Def. eFG%	49.0	7	50.9	13	47.7	4
BE Def. TOv%	17.1	12	19.2	10	17.0	13
BE Def. OReb%	28.1	1	33.8	10	28.4	1
BE Def. FTA/FGA	33.7	8	31.7	5	28.7	3
Miscellanious
All Gms Cons	16.9	48	22.9	260	19.7	124
All Gms Luck	-.019	190	+.019	102	+.024	94

Pittsburgh excelled last season through their offense and consistency. The Panthers were consistently efficient (2nd in all of DI) for converting possessions into points. Their longstanding reputation for smothering defense took a back seat to the Sam Young's and DaJuan Blair's talent for scoring from close in. When Blair, Fields and Young were on the court together their fans could expect to see over 7 in 10 Panther possessions end on a play made by one of those 3. And if the play ended with a shot, 3 in 4 times the Pitt player who released the shot was either Blair, Fields, or Young. Achieving the same level of consistency this season will be extremely difficult, especially given that so much of the shot production has left.

	For the Record...
	2008-09			2007-08			2006-07
	W	L	Pct.	W	L	Pct.	W	L	Pct.
Overall	31	5	0.861	27	10	0.730	29	8	0.784
Big East	15	3	0.833	10	8	0.556	12	4	0.750
Post Season?	NCAA/Rnd 4			NCAA/Rnd 2			NCAA/Rnd 3

Many anticipated a step back in 2007-08 since Pitt had to replace Aaron Gray's low post presence on the fly. DaJuan Blair stepped in nicely, and it took injuries to Lavance Fields and Mike Cook to derail an otherwise promising season. Coach Dixon had to cobble together a back court and patch over a suddenly thin wing. Considering that 40% of the Panther starting line up was on the beach by mid January, a 27-10 record with a 1st round victory in the NCAA (and a Big East Tournament Championship) could not be too disappointing. The Panthers were poised to make noise in 2008-09. And they did, sharing the regular season Championship honors with Louisville, and running to the Elite Eight in the NCAAs -- their deepest run since ??.

The Panther's Nucleus
Coach Jamie Dixon biggest task this season? Priority items will be to mold Pitt's new front court, manned in large part with entering freshmen (if not starters, then frequent subs in the rotation). Running tryouts for the point guard spot will be high on the list too. Dixon will have several returning back court players to review, along with a red shirt freshman and a transfer. Then there are the wing positions...

On Offense
Player	Min%	ORtg	Poss%	Shot%	eFG%	PPWS	OR%	FTR%
Dixon	61.5	112.2	17.2	19.2	50.2	1.05	2.5	27.2
Wanamaker	47.4	103.8	18.0	13.9	54.2	1.18	2.2	49.7
Brown	43.1	105.5	16.4	15.3	47.2	1.02	7.4	37.1
Gibbs	25.9	117.5	18.2	20.8	58.1	1.20	1.9	17.1
McGhee	14.4	87.7	13.8	9.3	51.7	1.01	12.8	62.1
Robinson	12.9	92.1	14.9	11.0	48.4	0.95	8.7	32.3

Dixon (when he completes rehabbing a broken foot), Wanamaker and Gibbs will supply some outside and inside scoring. All are guards though, not especially adept at rebounding and, Wanamaker (a Phiily guard naturally) aside, contact-shy. McGhee and Robinson will need help generating offense in the low post/paint points.

On Defense
Player	Min%	DR%	Ast%	TOv%	Stl%	Blk%
Jermaine Dixon	61.5	9.2	13.7	14.0	3.0	3.4
Brad Wanamaker	47.4	17.0	18.0	29.1	1.3	2.4
Gilbert Brown	43.1	10.8	10.9	20.4	1.6	1.5
Ashton Gibbs	25.9	5.4	13.7	19.3	0.3	0.8
Gary McGhee	14.4	13.5	0.7	31.2	4.1	0.6
Nasir Robinson	12.9	12.6	13.4	30.1	2.3	2.2

Significant Additions
Coach Dixon went shopping for his guards last season and came back with Jermaine Dixon (a transfer), Ashton Gibbs, a sophomore who is expected to move over to the point this season and Travon Woodall, a red shirt freshman. To this trio (plus junior Brad Wannamaker) Coach Dixon added Chase Adams, a 5-11 senior transfer from Centenary College, who moved over in August 2009. Adams will be available immediately because Centenary voted to move down to DIII early in this off season. Adams compiled an outstanding ORtg (113.6 -- see Ken Pomeroy's Scout Page for Centenary College), due to a combination of good shooting (49.7% conversion rate for his 2s, and an outstanding 39.8% accuracy from beyond the arc to yield a 54.4 eFG%) and an astounding 31.0 Ast% (good for a #69 ranking). Adams' rating was helped by a very low turnover rate (15.1%). His PPWS last season was 1.15. Boasting an FTR% of 42.2, unusual for point guards, but typical for a Pitt pg. Adams should fit right in. Coach Dixon will have him for a year. It will be interesting to see how quickly he makes the rotation.

This season he looked for front court players to replace Young and Blair, and came brought in a very strong class of Dante Taylor, a 6-9 power forward out of Maryland (National Christian Academy), small forward Lamar Patterson, 6-5 220lb native Pennsylvanian by way of St. Benedict's Prep in Newark, NJ, Talib Zanna, a 6-9 220lb center out of Bishop McNamara in Maryland and Texas native JJ Richardson, another power forward who measures 6-8 and weighs in at 238 lbs. Taylor and Patterson have drawn some national recognition; Taylor earning a spot on the McDonald's All-American team, and Patterson ranked in the Top 100 by several scouting services. Zanna however flew under the national radar until the summer of 2008 recruiting period, when he dazzled fans (and coaches) at a few HS tournaments.


Explode If...
1. All of the new players -- particularly Adams, Taylor and Zanna -- master the learning curve quickly. Pitt's approach to the game, introduced by Ben Howland and continued by Jamie Dixon, has been to control the pace and flow by dominating the boards, scoring with consistency (inside and outside, but mostly inside) as they grind down their opposition. Panther fans describe the defense as a "boa constrictor" on their opponent's offense.
2. Gilbert Brown finally has the season Pitt fans (and the media) have been predicting...for the past 2 years. Sam Young has moved on, now it's Brown's time. Brown is only one of several well regarded high school bballers, projected to standout in the Big East, but have coasted once they arrive at Pitt. Brad Wannamaker and Nasir Robinson, along with Brown, have a good opportunity this season to take the reins of the team.

Implode If...
A good many mainstays in the offense and defense graduated or left for the NBA. Pittsburgh lost 4 of their 5 starters, a heavy burden to overcome, and an opportunity to hand down traditions and attitudes, lost. True the conference in general is down, but the rigors of an 18 game schedule, to be cleared in about 9+ weeks, punish the inattentive or lacksidasical learner.
1. Point guard is an important position for the Panthers. The point has to distribute, penetrate and step back and nail the three, depending on the situation. Good judgement is a not "a plus", it is a pre-requisite. Gibbs had an understudy year with Fields, but if it was not enough, and Adams does not fit in quickly, the Panthers will struggle.
2. A dominant #5 is necessary if the Panthers are to control access to the lane and the low post. Gray and Kendall (and Young) stepped into the vacancy left by Taft and Troutman. Blair stepped in seamlessly when Gray graduated. Zanna and Taylor will have to do the same.

Crucial Run/Bellweather Games
The CBE Classic gives Pitt the opportunity to warmup against Binghamton & Eastern Kentucky as a preparation for Wichita State and either Texas or Iowa. The margin of victory (or not) versus Binghamton and Eastern Kentucky will give a hint about Wichita State and beyond. Faced with a slate of traditional local rivals (Dusquesne, Robert Morris), a rebuilding Indiana in the Jimmy V Classic (Madison Square Garden, NYC) and a handful of mid-majors (mostly at home -- the Peterson Center), the CBE is the best barometer on the state of the Panther team going into the Big East season.

The good news for the Panthers is they will host DePaul at home to open the Big East season. What the scheduler gives however, he also takes away -- the Panthers then hit the road for their next three games. Their trail takes the big cats through Syracuse, then Cincinnati, before heading into Connecticut before heading back home for a two game homestand against Louisville and Georgetown. And then on the road again, to the Rock, where they will play Seton Hall. That is one brutal six game run, as all six of those teams are projected to finish in the top half of the conference. the road games in particular will be extremely challenging. A 4-3 record (a home win versus DePaul is a given...if the Panthers drop that game they are in for a very, very long season) would be very good news to the Pitt fan-base. The Panthers have another tough five game run over the last 2½ weeks of February. They finish a two game homestand against West Virginia (the 1st game, against NEC member Robert Morris should be a win), then go to Milwaukee to face Marquette, return home to face Villanova and then take to the road again to face Notre Dame, then St. John's. They will need the home advantage against West Virginia and Villanova, as those two are expected to top the conference. Notre Dame may or may not contend for a bye spot this season, but irrespective the Irish play much better at home, so even a middling Notre Dame could be difficult for a young(er) Panther squad. The Johnnies expect to make a big upward move this season. A 3-2 or better record through this stretch would probably put Pitt in the NCAAs. An 8-8 record or better going into their last two games, a last homestand before heading out to Madison Square Garden and the BET, would most likely spell a 10-8 conference record as the Panthers face Providence then Rutgers, both should be wins.

U19 2009 -- Some Efficiency Stats

Offensive Efficiencies
I confess I have spent no time looking at the U19 and the U17 FIBA tournaments this summer. My bias towards the World University Games in Belgrade can be traced to Villanova guard Corey Fisher, one of the twelve collegians selected to play for the USA. The U19 team has a few Big East connections too -- Pitt's Head Coach Jamie Dixon guided the Americans to a World Championship in this summer's tournament hosted by New Zealand. And Pitt guard Ashton Gibbs played for the American team and scored an average of 9.4 points per game for the team as he logged a squad high 181 minutes over 8 games. The team's offensive efficiency stats...

##	Player	%Min	Poss%	ORtg	PPWS	eFG%	Ast%	FTR%
10	G. Hayward	53.1	23.8	117.9	1.27	59.6	12.7	54.4
15	H. Thompkins	39.1	31.5	102.4	1.16	54.5	1.5	37.9
6	T. Taylor	51.8	30.1	88.3	1.04	49.2	26.9	25.4
4	A. Gibbs	56.6	21.9	96.1	1.03	48.5	15.8	19.4
5	S. Curry	47.8	25.4	87.0	1.13	55.2	9.9	22.4
8	K. Thompson	46.6	23.1	93.0	1.16	59.2	18.2	12.2
9	T. White	47.8	22.6	80.2	0.99	48.2	3.9	14.5
11	J. Shurna	32.2	20.7	121.2	1.35	61.8	6.1	35.3
13	D. Casto	33.8	18.6	119.0	1.43	71.4	1.3	57.1
7	S. Mack	47.2	23.5	77.0	0.93	44.0	16.4	12.0
12	D. Miller	35.9	19.2	95.0	1.26	60.0	15.3	40.0
14	A. Moultrie	31.6	20.1	95.8	0.91	41.4	5.7	31.0

While the team is composed of relative unknowns (to college basketball fans), one or two names caught my eye -- Tyshawn Taylor, the freshman out of Kansas, and Seth Curry, younger brother to Stephen Curry (late of VCU) who recently transferred to Duke (from Liberty)for example -- in addition to the already mentioned Big East freshman Ashton Gibbs (whose younger brother Sterling played for the U17 team). Tyshawn Taylor (Kansas), Seth Curry (Duke), Shelvin Mack (Butler), Gordon Hayward (Butler), Gibbs and Howard Thompkins (when he was in -- Georgia) formed the offensive nucleus. Of the group, Taylor and Gibbs offset their somewhat inconsistent shooting (45.8% & 40.3% respectively) with assists. As the table below shows, the team had several 3 point specialists on the roster.

			Pt Dist%			FGA Dist%
Player	%Min	%Shot	3FG	2FG	FT	3FG	2FG
A. Gibbs	56.6	21.0	44.0	42.7	13.3	50.7	49.3
G. Hayward	53.1	19.1	40.0	35.6	24.4	49.1	50.9
S. Curry	47.8	21.5	75.0	13.9	11.1	79.3	20.7
T. White	47.8	20.4	36.2	55.2	8.6	49.1	50.9
S. Mack	47.2	18.8	36.7	53.1	10.2	52.0	48.0
K. Thompson	46.6	18.7	70.0	26.7	3.3	57.1	42.9
T. Taylor	45.3	23.1	17.6	67.6	14.7	20.3	79.7
H. Thompkins	39.1	30.0	0.0	80.9	19.1	1.5	98.5
Darius Miller	35.9	12.4	0.0	81.1	18.9	16.0	84.0
J. Shurna	32.2	18.8	34.0	45.3	20.8	50.0	50.0
A. Moultrie	31.6	16.3	0.0	80.0	20.0	0.0	100.0
D. Casto	16.9	14.7	0.0	80.0	20.0	0.0	100.0
U19 Team			33.1	51.6	15.3	39.6	60.4
Opponents			25.6	58.8	15.6	28.3	71.7

The table is sorted by playing time (%Min) to better see how minutes were allocated. Clearly Seth Curry's job was to play the perimeter and take 3s (Coach Krzyzewski dreaming of another JJ Redick?) despite his shooting difficulties, but Gibbs, Shelvin Mack, Klay Thompson also had green lights. Dixon inherited a Pitt program that Ben Howland had built from the inside out. That offense worked to overwhelm defenses through dominance (scoring and rebounding) in the paint first. Dixon maintained the personality, but recruited and integrated a number of outside/perimeter scorers into the Panther offense. Taking 39.6% (versus 28.3% for their opponents) of their FGAs from beyond the arc casts this USA squad as far more perimeter oriented than Dixon's Pitt teams. I wonder if this is a feature Coach Dixon will develop with his Panther teams, as Ashton Gibbs, most likely his pg next season, took just over ½ of his FGAs from the outside.

Defense and Rebounding
For defense and rebounding, the squad's efficiency stats looked like this...

Player	Min%	OR%	DR%	TO%	Blk%	Stl%
A. Gibbs	56.6	1.8	2.3	5.3	0.5	2.0
G. Hayward	53.1	14.2	15.2	7.7	4.6	4.0
T. Taylor	51.8	2.0	6.2	19.1	0.0	2.8
S. Curry	47.8	3.6	8.8	17.4	2.3	1.0
T. White	47.8	6.5	9.4	15.1	2.8	1.0
S. Mack	47.2	3.6	13.7	20.6	0.0	2.4
K. Thompson	46.6	6.6	18.7	19.7	1.7	2.1
H. Thompkins	39.1	13.2	23.1	6.6	4.9	3.3
D. Miller	35.9	6.7	18.8	28.4	9.0	5.0
D. Casto	33.8	6.1	6.7	15.6	2.4	0.0
J. Shurna	32.2	11.7	21.0	7.3	5.1	1.5
A. Moultrie	31.6	20.7	27.6	7.7	2.6	2.6

Moultrie, Shurna and Thompkins were dominant on the defensive boards...add Hayward to those three for the offensive boards. Curry and White weren't bad defensive rebounders for guards.

A thank you to CO_HOYA over at The Hoya Prospectus Blog for some of Oliver's formulas.