A Look at the Legends Classic

Breaking Out the log5...
I noticed Ken Pomeroy ran a few log5 calculations for destination invitationals running this weekend. The four teams competing in the Legends Championship Bracket this weekend were not included, so I decided to run the numbers and see who is favored. Note, the log5 calculation is an exercise in conditional probability, not a Nostradamus-inpired quatrain. log5 measures probabilities of a set of outcomes relative to each other, and should not, therefore, be taken as an absolute prediction of the future...but hey, it's fun and I am going to be doing a live blog for Rush the Court, so this is a good preparation for the double header (Vanderbilt vs. North Carolina State at 6:30, followed by Texas vs. Oregon State at about 8:30) on Saturday night and the playoff round (winners vs. winners, losers vs. losers) on Monday night.

	Final	Champ
Texas	78.8	20.8
Vanderbilt	67.5	18.1
No. Carolina State	32.5	2.2
Oregon State	21.2	0.03

Though Vanderbilt is the only ranked team (#20 in the Coaches Poll) in the field, Texas, by virtue of the easier semi final opponent, gets a slight nod in the final. Counter intuitive no doubt, but with the NCAA-mandated seven game suspension of Vandy's 6-11 scoring and rebounding machine Festus Ezeli, the Long Horns might be the favored choice...on potential anyway.

How They Got Here (Secaucus, New Jersey)
Though some (mostly birds migrating North in the spring and South in the fall...) might believe the Meadowlands of New Jersey is an exotic destination, the Legends is not a "destination" tournament like the Old Spice Classic or Paradise Jam. Each team headed to the IZOD Center for Saturday's showdown hosted two teams in preliminary play. Unlike the NIT Tip-Off however, the host, who may not be a preliminary round winner, advances to the Championship Bracket in Secaucus.

Texas breezed by Boston University 82-46 on 11/13, then down Rhode Island by 10, 100-90, on 11/15. Vanderbilt lost their first preliminary round game, 58-71, to Cleveland State on 11/13, but beat Bucknell 80-68, on 11/15. North Carolina State hammered Morehead State 91-61 on 11/13, then squeaked by Princeton 61-58 on 11/14. The last team in the Championship bracket, Oregon State, barely broke a sweat disposing of Division II West Alabama, 93-60, then faced a slightly tougher test as they downed Hofstra by 10, 82-72 on 11/16.

Vanderbilt versus North Carolina State
The Commodores bring a junior and senior dominated squad to the IZOD. Even with Ezeli sidelined, the 'Dores will start five upperclassmen, starting with senior point guard Brad Tinsley and SEC scoring champion John Jenkins in the back court. Senior Jeffrey Taylor will start at the wing, while seniors (and New Jersey native) Lance Goulbourne and Steve Tchiengang will start as duel forwards. Stallings has used between 10 and 12 players in each of the Commodores' first three games, though he felt the reserves were effective only in Vandy's last game (versus Bucknell). First year (at Raleigh) coach Mark Gottfried will counter with experienced starters, CJ Leslie's NCAA-mandated suspension should be completed by the Vanderbilt game. If he does not start at the #3/#4 he will come off the bench pretty quickly. Sophomore Lorenzo Brown will start at the point with freshman CJ Williams at the #2. The front court spots will be filled by junior Scott Wood, with two of Richard Howell, Leslie, DeShawn Painter or Jordan Vendenberg, the last two considered legitimate centers. Though Gottfried emptied the bench in the Wolfpack's only blowout (a 30 point win over Morehead State), he seems more comfortable with his first eight-to-nine players.

Texas versus Oregon State
The Long Horns lost their entire starting lineup in the off season, but Coach Rick Barnes has earned his reputation as one of the Big 12's strongest recruiters. Barnes has junior J'Coven Brown, a McDonald's All American as a high schooler, available to start this season. Senior Alexis Wangmene has started twice at the $4/#5, with three of his prized freshmen, Jon Holmes, Myck Kabongo and Julien Lewis starting and giving the Horns a three guard/two forward lineup. Barnes used a nine and ten man rotation in Texas' two games, suggesting that a few more members of his seven man freshman class (Sterling Gibbs, Sheldon McClellan and Jaylen Bond) will get regular minutes for the time being. Barnes has also called senior Clint Chapman's number often. Coach Craig Robinson has settled into his starting five, starting with Jared Cunningham at the off guard and Ahmed Starks at the point. Both Cunningham and Starks have 1-2 years of experience. Juniors Joe Barton and Angus Brandt will hold down the #4/#5 spots, with sophomore Devon Collier at the #3. Kevin McShane (senior forward), Roberto Nelson (sophomore guard), Calle Barton (true freshman, guard) and Eric Moreland (red shirt freshman, forward) saw minutes in each Oregon State's games so far.

The View From Here
Expect Vandy and Texas to meet in the finals Monday, with the States, North Carolina and Oregon to meet in the consolation game. Of the underdogs, Gottfried's Wolfpack might have the better shot at an upset, as Vandy has a habit of unexpectedly freezing up on occasion. CJ Leslie might be the unknown factor Saturday, but the 'Dores are very deep and experienced, with or without Ezeli. I will be running a live blog courtside for Rush the Court, starting around 6:30 Saturday night. Drop by for a courtside perspective if you have the time.

Guest Contributor Ray Floriani: Coaches vs Cancer Finals

by Ray Floriani

NEW YORK CITY -- The championship of the Coaches vs. Cancer final at Madison Square Garden, came down to the final possession. Down two, Texas tossed, or should it be said forced, an on the run prayer that missed by a wide margin and Pitt emerged victorious 68-66. The Scores:

Consolation
Illinois		Maryland
80		76

Finals
Pittsburgh		Texas
68		66

Madison Square Garden
on a Friday afternoon

The Four Factors in the consolation:

		FTA
	eFG%	FGA	OR%	TO%
Maryland	47	19	47	22
Illinois	55	23	31	17

The game was played for 72 possessions. The offensive efficiency for each team computed to:

	Illinois	Maryland
Off. Efficiency	111	106

In one night Maryland improved dramatically in the rebounding department. Terrapins had a significant 20-11 edge on the offensive glass. Illinois' ability to care for the ball, even facing some full court and three quarter court pressure was significant. They shot very well, going 10 of 19 from beyond the arc. Leading the way from downtown were Demetri McCamey (3-3 from three) 20 points and D.J. Richardson (3-6 from three) 9 points. Maryland's Jordan Williams did not score and had 2 boards in nine first half minutes but came alive after intermission finishing with 15 points 13 rebounds.

The tale of Jordan Williams' two halves by efficiency...

	Half
	1st	2nd	Game
Efficiency	-1	22	21

Recorded Maryland's first half possessions by time with the following chart showing the results:

Time	Poss.	TOs	Pts	PPP
<15 seconds	21	6	21	1.00
=> 15 seconds	13	3	15	1.15
Total	34	9	36	1.06

[Note -- Poss. is possessions, TOs is turnovers and PPP is points per possession computed as Pts/Poss.]
Normally as possessions progress the chances of turnovers are greater. In Maryland's case they committed most of the TOs early on. Chalk that up to a few transition opportunities that ended without a shot. Interestingly, Gary Williams' club was more efficient after the 15 second mark. Partially due to the fact as the clock winds down they have a special set(s) to ensure a good attempt from the field. And they are actually more cautious as the shot clock winds down.

Your VBTN contributor was not invited

The Four Factors for the final:

		FTA
	eFG%	FGA	OR%	TO%
Texas	48	36	39	26
Pittsburgh	48	23	36	17

The championship game was played for 66 possessions; the offensive efficiencies were...

	Pittsburgh	Texas
Off. Efficiency	103	102

Scoreboard tells it all

The telling rate was in the turnover category. The Longhorns did everything else, out rebound Pitt (which few teams do), got to the line and shot a percentage that matched their opposition. But 17 turnovers in a 65 possession contest is a killer. Especially in a one possession game. In the dreaded TO category it seems Rick Barnes' club 'shared the wealth'. Cory Joseph and Jordan Hamilton led with three each but everyone of the nine players Texas used, had at least one. In Hamilton's defense the 6-7 sophomore swingman led all scorers with 28 points and proved to be an inside/outside matchup problem all night long.

Talib Zanna had an impressive semifinal but the Pitt frosh had only 2 points and 6 boards in a 15 minute foul plagued final. These things will happen but the impressive thing is Pitt has a number of players who can step up on the given night. Ashton Gibbs led the Panthers with 24 points (19 in the second half) while running mate Travon Woodall added 7 points 5 assists. The Panthers will capitalize on opposition errors and can beat you in many different ways.

Recorded the Pitt possessions by time once again. In the breakdown I just limited it to turnovers, points and points per possession. For calculating purposes an offensive rebound was an extension of the possession. Pitt had only seven offensive boards, so a great deal of their 'extended' possessions of 15 seconds or more were due to the Texas defense.

The First Half...
Time	Poss.	TOs	Pts	PPP
<15 seconds	21	3	22	1.05
=> 15 seconds	13	3	9	0.69
Total	34	6	31	0.91

[Note -- Poss. is possessions, TOs is turnovers and PPP is points per possession computed as Pts/Poss.]

The Second Half & Totals
Time	Poss.	TOs	Pts	PPP
<15 seconds	22	2	25	1.14
=> 15 seconds	14	3	12	0.86
2nd Half	36	5	37	1.03
Game	70	11	68	0/97

The number of possessions sometimes deviates from the formula. Many times the formula for possessions is right on the money or one or two off. Still, it is a great way to calculate the possessions if you do not chart every one the 'long hand' method. Also in charting, the person charting can make a clerical error, or two.

As the chart shows, the Panthers' points per possessions was more effective when the possession ended prior to 15 seconds. Those sequences include transition opportunities that were converted and good looks in the early offense. Pitt had a number of those the first ten minutes before Texas dug in and forced the opposition to make the extra passes and extend each Pitt trip down the floor.

In the post game presser Rick Barnes said the first 10 minutes were the key. "We came out a little stagnant especially on defense." With a young club, getting to the final with a strong showing against the nation's number four team was significant."

Jamie Dixon noted how the Travon Woodall-Ashon Gibbs (both NJ products with Woodall from St. Anthony's and Gibbs Seton Hall Prep) backcourt was very effective in the second half. Dixon also was impressed with the Panthers' balance. "We have 11 guys who contribute," he said. "One night someone will break out another night it could be someone else."

Ashton Gibbs receives the MVP award

Dixon was asked by Lenn Robbins of the NY Post to comment on critics contention that Pitt 'wins ugly'. "They are probably looking at me," Dixon quipped. The Panthers mentor went on to note how Pitt has been one of the most offensively efficient teams around the last few years. In '09 the average possessions for Pitt in Big East play was 67. Last season, with a lot of new faces, the pace slowed a bit to 64. Entering the Texas game Pitt averaged 71 possessions for their first four contests. If the break or early offense shot is there they will take it. You can chalk the slower paced games, especially in the Big East, as a product of their suffocating defense. The only 'ugly' in Pitt is what opponents see in having to face that trademark defense. Dixon summed it best saying, "better to win ugly than lose pretty."

Both nights at the Garden the Panthers won. And it was pretty impressive.

All Tournament
	Team
Ashton Gibbs (MVP)	Pittsburgh
Trevon Woodall	Pittsburgh
Jordan Hamilton	Texas
Jordan Williams	Maryland
Demetrius McCamey	Illinois

Pitt Panthers celebrate

Preview -- Texas

The Wildcats and Longhorns meet up as the overcard for the Jimmy V Classic in Madison Square Garden. This is the third time in four seasons the 'Horns and 'Cats face off, as they concluded a home-n-home series in the Wachovia Center back in 2007. The series is tied 1-1, as each team took the home game, so this game, on a neutral court, will be the tie breaker. Until they meet the next time...

What Others Say...
...Blue Ribbon gives the backcourt a A-, the frontcourt a A- and the bench/depth a B+. The BRY goes on to note --

"...The job Rick Barnes has done at Texas is impressive because the Longhorns have been consistently good under his watch. He's dominated recruiting in his talent-rich home state and managed to land the occasional out-of-state star...Every year, the Longhorns seem to just reload, despite losing key players to the NBA...And that's more or less the case once again...The Longhorns are one of those teams that will have a chance to win the national championship..."
-- Blue Ribbon Yearbook

ESPN Magazine picked the Longhorns to win the Big 12 Conference. Rob Dauster over at the Ballin is a Habit Blog projected Texas as the #10 team in D1 while noting...

"...The core of this Texas team is very talented - Abrams, Mason, James, and Atchley are as good as anyone. But, like last year's team, depth will be the issue, especially at guard as Mason, Abrams, and Augustin were really the only three guys that played (each averaged over 33 mpg, and Texas blew a lot of teams out)..."
-- No. 10 Texas:  2008-2009 Team Preview

Why Everyone Believes...
...AJ Abrams, Damion James, Connor Achley, Rick Barnes...

So Far...
Texas (Big 12, 6-1, RPI #37) has a number of notable wins & losses so far, including wins -- St. Joseph's (A10, 3-3, RPI #92) and UCLA (PAC 10, 4-2, RPI #94)  losses -- Notre Dame (Big East, 5-1, RPI #77). The game will be a benchmark for Villanova going forward, as the 'Cats will eventually face both St. Joseph's and Notre Dame. Villanova enters the game with an 7-0 record, gathered largely against mid/low major competition. Solid wins against Niagara (MAAC 5-2, RPI #53) and Rhode Island(A10 6-3, RPI #31) are encouraging.

Frontcourt vs frontcourt...
...Senior #4/#5 Connor Atchley (6-10, 228lbs), along with juniors #5 Dexter Pittman (6-10, 295lbs) and Damion James (6-7. 222lbs), man the 'Horns front court. Per the Longhorn's pregame notes, Atchley, Pittman and James will get the starting nod. James combines with Abrams and Mason to form a reliable scoring trio for Texas. Pittman starts but tends to get little PT; he averaged about 7 mpg for the last 4 games. Sophomore Gary Johnson (6-6, 233lbs) will be the next guy off the bench. Typically he gets 20 or so minutes and a few shots, manning the #4 he allows Atchley to slide over to cover the center spot.

The Wildcats will start Dante Cunningham and Antonio Pena at the #4/#5. Shane Clark is averaging about 17 minutes a game so far, contributing about 6 points and 3 rebounds per outing. Reggie Redding, the team's "utility man" & may well see time as a #4 if circumstances demand. Senior Frank Tchuisi has provided spot duty in each of Nova's first eight games. Dwayne Anderson may see some court time also.

Backcourt vs backcourt...
...The Athletic Department's "complete notes" publication predicts that Coach Rick Barnes will start senior DJ Abrams (5-11, 161lbs), alongside junior Justin Mason (6-2, 194lbs). Sophomore Dogus Balbay(6-0, 176lbs) and freshman Varez Ward (6-2, 190lbs) will see between 8 and 16 minutes apiece, but have not shot or scored (or rebounded or assisted, etc.) much during their time.

Scottie Reynolds and Corey Fisher will most likely start, with Corey Stokes playing the wing. Reynolds hit his season high in scoring in the Houston Baptist game. Fisher has shown a good deal of progress this season, especially in the Philly Hoops Classic and the games that have followed. Reggie Redding will no doubt get the call if AJ Abrams goes off. Dwayne Anderson saw some court time versus Penn.

Texas By the Numbers...
Over the past 5 years Texas' RPI has been as high as #4 and as low as #109. Four of those seasons has seen the 'Horns ranked #34 or higher (3 in the top 10). Texas runs at very close to average on pace this season. The 'Horns take about 68 (68.1 actually, adjusted) possessions, according to Ken Pomeroy's Texas Scout Page, the D1 average is 68.2, which ranks the Longhorns #145 out of approx. 343 D1 teams. Texas's Offensive Rating (adjusted...), 106.6, ranks them at a respectable (but not elite-level) #83. The defense however, at 77.3 (good for an elite-level #5 ranking...) should make Coach Wright, no defensive slouch himself, very envious. Comparing each team's Four Factors...

When Texas has the ball...
				FTA
	eFG%	TO%	OR%	FGA
'Horn O	51.2	19.9	39.4	20.9
'Cat D	43.3	23.8	27.4	36.6

While Texas is a bit more efficient with their 3 point shooting, their offense takes about 75% of their FGAs inside the arc. With a set of 6-10 front court players complemented by Damion James, makes the decision to go inside a no brainer. Abrams takes about 55% of his FGAs as 3s, so this will be a test for the Wildcat's perimeter defense. Historically 'Cats shot defense has been suspect. This year's improvement may well be confirmed (or disproved?) by the 'Horns. Given their tendency to go inside offensively, they most likely will try to exploit their size advantage versus Cunningham and Pena.

When Villanova has the ball...
				FTA
	eFG%	TO%	OR%	FGA
'Cat O	53.9	17.9	42.0	34.7
'Horn D	40.8	23.3	32.5	29.2

The profiles for the two teams is virtually the same. Their strengths are nearly identical. The Wildcats have compensated for poor shooting by maximizing possessions (limiting turnovers) and second chance opportunities (offensive rebounding). Those are two strong points for Texas defense. And Texas' shot defense is a bit better than Villanova's. Interesting.

Finally...
...This game will match two teams with similar approaches to winning -- value the ball, force turnovers and grab rebounds. On a poor shooting night that will increase the team's odds for winning. Which team will execute their game plan better?

Coach Wright has typically used 9 - 11 players in his rotation, but has shortened the rotation (and bench) to allocate double digit minutes to the first 7 players when the game has been competitive. This may well be the case against Texas. Whether Dwayne Anderson sees time will most likely depend on the condition of his foot and the progress of the game.

Both team's offensive/defensive ratings and pace numbers suggest this will be a virtual tossup game. They will play for about 65 or so possessions (a bit lower than Texas may like?), with the scores, favoring Texas, about a point apart.

Roster Notes, etc.
Villanova
1. Dwayne Anderson appeared briefly in Villanova's game with Penn. Spectators noted post game that he was limping noticably after the game. No word on his availability for Texas.

Texas
1. The Longhorns provide a game preview at their web site.