Showing posts with label Texas. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Texas. Show all posts

Saturday, November 26, 2011

The 2011 Legends Classic -- 4 Takaways

After I Got a Few Hours' Sleep Between Monday and Wednesday...
After blogging the Legends Classic Saturday and Monday night, I drove home to write the recap for RTC, sleep for an hour or two before embarking on a 24 hour juggling marathon of personal, professional and avocational responsibilities. Having an hour to actually sit and think...would probably put me to sleep. So before I think too long...

1. Entertaining & Exciting != High Quality & Excellent -- The fans who came out (mostly attached to the schools, which is a shame, these were very entertaining games) were treated to a four game set that included an overtime period between Oregon State and Texas Saturday, necessitated by an Oregon State make on the next-to-last possession of regulation (O State had not held the lead for more than one possession for the previous 32 mintues). Jared Cunningham sank two free throws to force the overtime period. Two other games featured the possible win or tie by the team holding the ball at the end of regulation. Nerve wracking for the winners and very exciting for those who came out to watch. The fourth game, by the way, was decided by seven points (three possessions), saw five lead changes and a tie in the last six minutes of play...hardly a snooze. So why does exciting not always equal excellent? The four games averaged 42.5 fouls (that is 21 fouls per team) and 35.8 turnovers (or nearly 18 per team per game). Each game seemed to have several stretches where both teams turned the ball over on successive possessions, leading to several sequences where the ball would change hands four-to-six times with teams exchanging "one-and-done" possessions, or possibly not taking a shot at all. Television timeouts, which seemed to stretch innocuous fouls into 2-3 minute huddle sessions, brought several promising runs to a screeching halt which fatally disrupted any attempts at a game flow. But the runs, taken by all four teams at various times, coupled with some impressive individual performances and wild end-of-regulation play sequences were strong redeeming qualities. Yes I'd do this again. In a heartbeat.


NC State's Richard Howell dunks
at the end of a run out
in State's loss to Vanderbilt


2. Vanderbilt Can Win Without Festus Ezeli (or Even Johnny Jenkins?!). Oregon State Cannot Without Jared Cunningham -- Coach Kevin Stallings put speculation about the impact of no Ezeli to bed quickly, and the subject of the post game interviews refocused on how Vanderbilt played rather than how they would have played. The Commodores downed two good -- not great -- teams from power conferences. Teams expected to finish in the upper division of their respective conferences, though not to seriously challenge for the top spots in their respective conferences. Given the competition, that Vanderbilt won both games speaks well for the Commodores' depth and poise. They bested middling teams from other power conferences without their starting center who was the team's #3 scorer and #2 rebounder (#1 offensive rebounder) speaks to the talent level that is now available. That is the basic talent level that will sustain them through SEC play. Ezeli, when he rehabilitates and rejoins the squad, will most likely make a difference as to whether the 'Dores finish #5 or #3 (or higher...) this season. His absence will not determine whether the squad has a winning or losing season. Opposing coaches spoke of Vanderbilt's experience in post game pressers, but invariably they mentioned senior wing Jeffrey Taylor, before junior guard John Jenkins, the leading SEC scorer last season.

Can the same be said for Oregon State? Coach Craig Robinson asserted to the assembled press that his team "...have quite a bit of character...", and "...[Jared Cunningham]'s a marked man now. We expect Jared to understand that help [his teammates] get involved...he affects the game even when he is not scoring 35 points a game...". While forward Devon Collier and pg Ahme Starks led the scoring against Vanderbilt, the Beavers' scoring is largely in those three teammates' hands. Though he had seven steals, the Beavers needed more than nine points from the junior off guard against Vanderbilt. Cunningham will need to post more than nine points per game to boost the Beaver's chances in Pac-12 play.


Starks (#3) & Collier (#44) are not enough
if the Beavers are to finish
in the Pac-12's top 3


3. Should Coach Barnes Test His Team for ADHD? -- Counting the two halves of each game separately, Texas "lost" the last four minutes three out of four times (four out of five if you count the Oregon State overtime Saturday). What happened? In the first half of their semi-final versus Oregon State, the Long Horns had just outscored the Beavers 14-7 from the 7:59 mark to the 4:00 mark. From there to the end of the half however the Horns managed eight points on eight possessions, for a 1.00 points per possession rate. The Beavers scored 10 point in eight possessions, good for a 1.25 ppp. Though the Horns retained a five point edge going into the intermission, they had Beavers on the ropes at the 4:00 minute mark, and let them go. The second half of Saturday's game followed a pattern similar to the first half, the Horns again established an edge going into the last four minutes (complements of a 13-6 scoring edge from the 11:50-4:00 mark), but lost focus again, scoring six points in their last eight possessions (0.75 ppp) to Oregon State's 12 points over eight possessions (1.50 ppp). The Horns shot 3-9 from the floor and 9-12 from the line in those two four minute slices, with no assists. Coach Robinson's squad shot 6-14 (with six assists) and 7-8 from the line.

Monday night's Consolation Game with North Carolina State had a similar pattern emerge with respect to "the last four", at least in the first half. Up by 13 at the 4:00 minute mark, the Horns scored their last five points in the half using six possessions (0.83 ppp), shooting 1-6 from the field with a single assist and 2-4 from the line.


NC State Coach Mark Gottfried can only watch
as Texas center Alexis Wangmene stuffs a putback
in first half of the Consolation Game


The Wolfpack scored eight points on seven possessions (1.14 ppp) on 1-2 shooting from the field (on an assist) and 5-6 from the line. Coach Barnes identified fouling as one of the areas the staff had to continue to address with the young team. J'Covan Brown's technical (and fifth foul) as a reaction to his fourth foul became a central theme in the post game presser. Coach Rick Barnes, reflecting on Brown offered "...That's where he gotta grow up. He's been in the program for three years and he's at different role now where these guys are looking for a lot from him...and he just can't do that. This has happened too much and sooner or later he's going to have to figure out that's what's going to keep him from where he wants to be and more importantly, it's a team game, and...he's got to realize it is not about him, there's more to it than scoring points...there's a lot that goes into being a part of a basketball team" Speaking with that gentle Southeastern drawl that tends to soothe the untrained Yankee ear, the coach continued "...he's come a long way...but he's, he ought to have it figured out by now...". In response to a later question about the impact of the technical on the team, Barnes responded "...I'm concerned for J'Covan. We're going to be fine. We've got enough guys who will work...the concerning part is for him. He's a junior, he's been here long enough and he ought to know...but for the team, if he doesn't do what he needs to do we'll move without him. We don't want to do that...everyone likes him...he's worked harder than he's ever worked in his life...but there's more to it...there's a mental side to it; there's a team component side to it...". Acknowledging that the technical "put them back on their heels..." was a mild statement.


Texas Coach Rick Barnes responded
to reporters' questions
but did he have any answers?


Leading 65-52 when Brown was T'ed up, the Horns could score only nine points on their last 16 possessions of the game (0.56 ppp), going 2-12 (no assists) from the field and 5-7 from the line. The Wolfpack scored 21 points on their last 16 possessions (1.56 ppp), converting 6-9 (four assists) from the field to go with 7-11 from the line.


Missing Saturday's semi-final with a rolled ankle
Wolfpack forward Scott Wood
provided outside scoring to complement State's inside game


4. Three For the Post Season? -- I left the 2010 Legends convinced that three of the four teams would play in the post season somewhere (in a tournament that starts with an "N"). Three did, though I was surprised at the details. I am not sure if three of the four teams I saw Saturday and Monday will go to the post season this time. Tournament winner Vanderbilt is the easy pick, assuming they do not hit anymore "Ezeli Bumps" (see Notre Dame's Tim Abromaitis), but which among the others will draw a bid? If Oregon State, the other finalist Monday does finish in the top 3/4 of the Pac-12 they will probably be tabbed. The win over Texas would help if there is any doubt, but Jared Cunningham has to show up. The Texas squad was not impressive, especially in the second loss to North Carolina State. But then neither was Michigan last season, and the Wolverines managed a bid as Coach Beilein's squad did mature and gel as the season progressed. North Carolina State did not impress in their semi-final game with Vanderbilt, but C. J. Leslie was back for his first game and Scott Wood was a DNP. The wing was solid, even on a shaky ankle, in the Wolfpack's win over Texas. And Leslie looked more comfortable than in his first game. Project (by Ken Pomeroy subscription) to tie for sixth in the Atlantic Coast Conference this season, North Carolina has an experienced squad. With Mark Gottfried at the helm and a staff that includes Bobby Lutz and Rob Moxley, the Wolfpack is better prepared to succeed than any of the past five years.


Texas freshman guard
Sterling Gibbs (#13) saw action in
the Consolation Game Monday


Wednesday, November 23, 2011

Guest Contributor Ray Floriani -- Legends Classic

by Ray Floriani

East Rutherford, NJ - The attendance on both nights of the Ticketcity Legends Classic was, to put it politely, sparse. Too bad. There were four close games that got sloppy at times, remember it is not even Thanksgiving, but were not short on excitement coming down to the wire.


outside the Izod Center

The Scores:

Semifinal Games...
Vanderbilt86 79North Carolina State
Oregon State100 95Texas


Consolation Game...
North Carolina St.77 74Texas


Championship Game...
Vanderbilt64 62Oregon St.

We will look at the final evening's consolation and championship games from the Izod Center.

The possessions and efficiency:

Off.
Poss.Eff.
Texas67111
North Carolina St.68113

For the second straight night the Longhorns showed an efficiency that should win you a basketball game. But came up short. Unfortunately that was the case in each of Texas' games here. On Saturday they posted a gaudy 117 OE only to generously allow a 127 OE to Oregon State in that overtime affair. Both teams shot the ball well (Texas 52% eFG, NC State 50%) and cared for the ball rather well. Texas had a 19% TO rate while the Wolfpack of the ACC came in at 16%. Both numbers are what you would love to have in March, and are ecstatic about in November. Achilles heel for Texas, and it was noted by coach Rick Barnes, was the persistent fouling. NC State had an off the chart 75% FT rate. They shot 33 of 44 from the line.

NC state came back from 18 points down. They made the decisive run the latter part of the second half after Texas' J'Covan Brown fouled out. With the Texas lead guard exiled on fouls, the Longhorns were a different team. And one who could not hold off the surging Wolfpack.

Leading scorers:

Manley
PointsEfficiency
CJ Leslie, NCSU1713
Sparked Wolfpack off the bench each game
J'Covan Brown, Texas1717
Shot 7-14, 1 turnover & 7 assists


Championship Game

Off.
Poss.Eff.
Vanderbilt6993
Oregon State State7187

Resilience was the key. Vanderbilt by as much as nine but in a game with nine ties and lead changes, Oregon State was determined not to go away. The decision was sealed in the final seconds on a jumper by Vanderbilt's Brad Tinsley. Chalk it up to Oregon State's persistence coupled with Vanderbilt's 'bull in a china shop' care of the basketball. The Commodores were guilty of 22 turnovers, translated, a ridiculously high 32% TO rate. Oregon State wasn't much better with a 24% TO mark. The SEC representatives also outshot Oregon State from the field with a 54-45% eFG mark. In a one possession outcome that is a big factor.

John Jenkins' 14 points for Vanderbilt, included a huge three pointer in the stretch. Jared Cunningham of Oregon State, entered the game with a 26 ppg scoring average, was held to nine points but did have seven steals.

Vanderbilt is a very good club at this juncture. One would be safe to assume, they will be even better when 6-11 Festus Ezeli returns from a knee injury and rejoins the Commodores in a few weeks.

Leading Scorers:

Manley
PointsEfficiency
Devon Collier, Oregon St1925
John Jenkins, Vanderbilt146



Upper press view of the Izod Center court

Jenkins' Manley number was affected by 5 of 13 shooting from the field, no assists and three turnovers. Make no mistake though, Jenkins' came up big both nights for coach Kevin Stallings and Vanderbilt.


Official Jim Burr and Vanderbilt coach Kevin Stallings
share a lighter moment



MVPJohn Jenkins, Vanderbilt
All Tournament Team:C.J. Leslie North Carolina St.
Sheldon McClellan, Texas
Jared Cunningham, Oregon St.
Jeffrey Taylor, Vanderbilt



Vanderbilt raises the championship trophy



And Then There is...
--   Good officiating friend Guy Pagano, who lives in Northern New Jersey, worked the final with Jim Burr and Mike Stephens.

--   Had the pleasure of meeting and chatting with one of the tempo-free 'Gods', John Gasaway. John was covering with Basketball Prospectus colleague Andrew Cannon.

Saturday, November 19, 2011

A Look at the Legends Classic

Breaking Out the log5...
I noticed Ken Pomeroy ran a few log5 calculations for destination invitationals running this weekend. The four teams competing in the Legends Championship Bracket this weekend were not included, so I decided to run the numbers and see who is favored. Note, the log5 calculation is an exercise in conditional probability, not a Nostradamus-inpired quatrain. log5 measures probabilities of a set of outcomes relative to each other, and should not, therefore, be taken as an absolute prediction of the future...but hey, it's fun and I am going to be doing a live blog for Rush the Court, so this is a good preparation for the double header (Vanderbilt vs. North Carolina State at 6:30, followed by Texas vs. Oregon State at about 8:30) on Saturday night and the playoff round (winners vs. winners, losers vs. losers) on Monday night.

FinalChamp
Texas78.820.8
Vanderbilt67.518.1
No. Carolina State32.52.2
Oregon State21.20.03

Though Vanderbilt is the only ranked team (#20 in the Coaches Poll) in the field, Texas, by virtue of the easier semi final opponent, gets a slight nod in the final. Counter intuitive no doubt, but with the NCAA-mandated seven game suspension of Vandy's 6-11 scoring and rebounding machine Festus Ezeli, the Long Horns might be the favored choice...on potential anyway.

How They Got Here (Secaucus, New Jersey)
Though some (mostly birds migrating North in the spring and South in the fall...) might believe the Meadowlands of New Jersey is an exotic destination, the Legends is not a "destination" tournament like the Old Spice Classic or Paradise Jam. Each team headed to the IZOD Center for Saturday's showdown hosted two teams in preliminary play. Unlike the NIT Tip-Off however, the host, who may not be a preliminary round winner, advances to the Championship Bracket in Secaucus.

Texas breezed by Boston University 82-46 on 11/13, then down Rhode Island by 10, 100-90, on 11/15. Vanderbilt lost their first preliminary round game, 58-71, to Cleveland State on 11/13, but beat Bucknell 80-68, on 11/15. North Carolina State hammered Morehead State 91-61 on 11/13, then squeaked by Princeton 61-58 on 11/14. The last team in the Championship bracket, Oregon State, barely broke a sweat disposing of Division II West Alabama, 93-60, then faced a slightly tougher test as they downed Hofstra by 10, 82-72 on 11/16.

Vanderbilt versus North Carolina State
The Commodores bring a junior and senior dominated squad to the IZOD. Even with Ezeli sidelined, the 'Dores will start five upperclassmen, starting with senior point guard Brad Tinsley and SEC scoring champion John Jenkins in the back court. Senior Jeffrey Taylor will start at the wing, while seniors (and New Jersey native) Lance Goulbourne and Steve Tchiengang will start as duel forwards. Stallings has used between 10 and 12 players in each of the Commodores' first three games, though he felt the reserves were effective only in Vandy's last game (versus Bucknell). First year (at Raleigh) coach Mark Gottfried will counter with experienced starters, CJ Leslie's NCAA-mandated suspension should be completed by the Vanderbilt game. If he does not start at the #3/#4 he will come off the bench pretty quickly. Sophomore Lorenzo Brown will start at the point with freshman CJ Williams at the #2. The front court spots will be filled by junior Scott Wood, with two of Richard Howell, Leslie, DeShawn Painter or Jordan Vendenberg, the last two considered legitimate centers. Though Gottfried emptied the bench in the Wolfpack's only blowout (a 30 point win over Morehead State), he seems more comfortable with his first eight-to-nine players.

Texas versus Oregon State
The Long Horns lost their entire starting lineup in the off season, but Coach Rick Barnes has earned his reputation as one of the Big 12's strongest recruiters. Barnes has junior J'Coven Brown, a McDonald's All American as a high schooler, available to start this season. Senior Alexis Wangmene has started twice at the $4/#5, with three of his prized freshmen, Jon Holmes, Myck Kabongo and Julien Lewis starting and giving the Horns a three guard/two forward lineup. Barnes used a nine and ten man rotation in Texas' two games, suggesting that a few more members of his seven man freshman class (Sterling Gibbs, Sheldon McClellan and Jaylen Bond) will get regular minutes for the time being. Barnes has also called senior Clint Chapman's number often. Coach Craig Robinson has settled into his starting five, starting with Jared Cunningham at the off guard and Ahmed Starks at the point. Both Cunningham and Starks have 1-2 years of experience. Juniors Joe Barton and Angus Brandt will hold down the #4/#5 spots, with sophomore Devon Collier at the #3. Kevin McShane (senior forward), Roberto Nelson (sophomore guard), Calle Barton (true freshman, guard) and Eric Moreland (red shirt freshman, forward) saw minutes in each Oregon State's games so far.

The View From Here
Expect Vandy and Texas to meet in the finals Monday, with the States, North Carolina and Oregon to meet in the consolation game. Of the underdogs, Gottfried's Wolfpack might have the better shot at an upset, as Vandy has a habit of unexpectedly freezing up on occasion. CJ Leslie might be the unknown factor Saturday, but the 'Dores are very deep and experienced, with or without Ezeli. I will be running a live blog courtside for Rush the Court, starting around 6:30 Saturday night. Drop by for a courtside perspective if you have the time.

Monday, November 22, 2010

Guest Contributor Ray Floriani: Coaches vs Cancer Finals


by Ray Floriani

NEW YORK CITY -- The championship of the Coaches vs. Cancer final at Madison Square Garden, came down to the final possession. Down two, Texas tossed, or should it be said forced, an on the run prayer that missed by a wide margin and Pitt emerged victorious 68-66. The Scores:

Consolation
IllinoisMaryland
8076


Finals
PittsburghTexas
6866


Madison Square Garden
on a Friday afternoon

The Four Factors in the consolation:

FTA
eFG%FGAOR%TO%
Maryland47194722
Illinois55233117

The game was played for 72 possessions. The offensive efficiency for each team computed to:

IllinoisMaryland
Off. Efficiency111106

In one night Maryland improved dramatically in the rebounding department. Terrapins had a significant 20-11 edge on the offensive glass. Illinois' ability to care for the ball, even facing some full court and three quarter court pressure was significant. They shot very well, going 10 of 19 from beyond the arc. Leading the way from downtown were Demetri McCamey (3-3 from three) 20 points and D.J. Richardson (3-6 from three) 9 points. Maryland's Jordan Williams did not score and had 2 boards in nine first half minutes but came alive after intermission finishing with 15 points 13 rebounds.

The tale of Jordan Williams' two halves by efficiency...

Half
1st2ndGame
Efficiency-12221

Recorded Maryland's first half possessions by time with the following chart showing the results:

TimePoss.TOsPtsPPP
<15 seconds216211.00
=> 15 seconds133151.15
Total349361.06
[Note -- Poss. is possessions, TOs is turnovers and PPP is points per possession computed as Pts/Poss.]
Normally as possessions progress the chances of turnovers are greater. In Maryland's case they committed most of the TOs early on. Chalk that up to a few transition opportunities that ended without a shot. Interestingly, Gary Williams' club was more efficient after the 15 second mark. Partially due to the fact as the clock winds down they have a special set(s) to ensure a good attempt from the field. And they are actually more cautious as the shot clock winds down.


Your VBTN contributor was not invited

The Four Factors for the final:

FTA
eFG%FGAOR%TO%
Texas48363926
Pittsburgh48233617

The championship game was played for 66 possessions; the offensive efficiencies were...

PittsburghTexas
Off. Efficiency103102


Scoreboard tells it all

The telling rate was in the turnover category. The Longhorns did everything else, out rebound Pitt (which few teams do), got to the line and shot a percentage that matched their opposition. But 17 turnovers in a 65 possession contest is a killer. Especially in a one possession game. In the dreaded TO category it seems Rick Barnes' club 'shared the wealth'. Cory Joseph and Jordan Hamilton led with three each but everyone of the nine players Texas used, had at least one. In Hamilton's defense the 6-7 sophomore swingman led all scorers with 28 points and proved to be an inside/outside matchup problem all night long.

Talib Zanna had an impressive semifinal but the Pitt frosh had only 2 points and 6 boards in a 15 minute foul plagued final. These things will happen but the impressive thing is Pitt has a number of players who can step up on the given night. Ashton Gibbs led the Panthers with 24 points (19 in the second half) while running mate Travon Woodall added 7 points 5 assists. The Panthers will capitalize on opposition errors and can beat you in many different ways.

Recorded the Pitt possessions by time once again. In the breakdown I just limited it to turnovers, points and points per possession. For calculating purposes an offensive rebound was an extension of the possession. Pitt had only seven offensive boards, so a great deal of their 'extended' possessions of 15 seconds or more were due to the Texas defense.

The First Half...
TimePoss.TOsPtsPPP
<15 seconds213221.05
=> 15 seconds13390.69
Total346310.91
[Note -- Poss. is possessions, TOs is turnovers and PPP is points per possession computed as Pts/Poss.]

The Second Half & Totals
TimePoss.TOsPtsPPP
<15 seconds222251.14
=> 15 seconds143120.86
2nd Half365371.03
Game7011680/97

The number of possessions sometimes deviates from the formula. Many times the formula for possessions is right on the money or one or two off. Still, it is a great way to calculate the possessions if you do not chart every one the 'long hand' method. Also in charting, the person charting can make a clerical error, or two.

As the chart shows, the Panthers' points per possessions was more effective when the possession ended prior to 15 seconds. Those sequences include transition opportunities that were converted and good looks in the early offense. Pitt had a number of those the first ten minutes before Texas dug in and forced the opposition to make the extra passes and extend each Pitt trip down the floor.

In the post game presser Rick Barnes said the first 10 minutes were the key. "We came out a little stagnant especially on defense." With a young club, getting to the final with a strong showing against the nation's number four team was significant."

Jamie Dixon noted how the Travon Woodall-Ashon Gibbs (both NJ products with Woodall from St. Anthony's and Gibbs Seton Hall Prep) backcourt was very effective in the second half. Dixon also was impressed with the Panthers' balance. "We have 11 guys who contribute," he said. "One night someone will break out another night it could be someone else."


Ashton Gibbs receives the MVP award

Dixon was asked by Lenn Robbins of the NY Post to comment on critics contention that Pitt 'wins ugly'. "They are probably looking at me," Dixon quipped. The Panthers mentor went on to note how Pitt has been one of the most offensively efficient teams around the last few years. In '09 the average possessions for Pitt in Big East play was 67. Last season, with a lot of new faces, the pace slowed a bit to 64. Entering the Texas game Pitt averaged 71 possessions for their first four contests. If the break or early offense shot is there they will take it. You can chalk the slower paced games, especially in the Big East, as a product of their suffocating defense. The only 'ugly' in Pitt is what opponents see in having to face that trademark defense. Dixon summed it best saying, "better to win ugly than lose pretty."

Both nights at the Garden the Panthers won. And it was pretty impressive.

All Tournament
Team
Ashton Gibbs (MVP)Pittsburgh
Trevon WoodallPittsburgh
Jordan HamiltonTexas
Jordan WilliamsMaryland
Demetrius McCameyIllinois



Pitt Panthers celebrate

Wednesday, December 10, 2008

Guest Contributor: Ray Floriani from the Jimmy V Classic

NEW YORK CITY – A good deal of the statistical breakdown regarding last night’s game is already addressed. Here are a few other press row observations.
* Villanova needs to locate the shooters. A.J. Abrams (game high 26 points) ran off post screens, curled and got a number of good looks off ball reversals. He hit some huge perimeter shots in the stretch that allowed the Longhorns to pull away.
* Free throws. Nova got to the line but 16 of 25 from the charity stripe is unacceptable against marquee opponents . And the Big East will provide a number of them.
* Stops. The deficit was four points for the Wildcats for what seemed like minutes midway through the second half. Each time Texas was able to convert on their end and keep the Cats from making it a one possession game. Digging in and getting key stops when needed is a priority.
* Late game, have to commend Rick Barnes of Texas for his strategy. After Abrams and Damion James buried a few perimeter shots , the Longhorns saw the outside shooters were getting more attention so they opted to penetrate and dish inside.
* Nova got another solid effort from Dante Cunningham. He led the Cats in scoring and rebounding with a 23 point 12 board effort. Overall Texas’ big men were not the most skilled but with three 6-10 physical players in the rotation, they presented a challenge. Dwayne Anderson chipped in with 9 boards in relief for Nova. He will be counted on for similar contributions for Jay Wright’s club on a regular basis once the Big East schedule unfolds.
* Stat that stood out…TO rate. Texas with a19% figure was a bit more careful than Nova at 27%.

First game notes…Stephan Curry put a show on the final four minutes with four clutch shots in Davidson’s 86-65 win over West Virginia. Curry finished with a game high 27 points, 10 assists. The breakdown:


 PossEff
Davidson6999
West Virginia6896


Stats of note…West Virginia owned the glass with a 59% OFF REB Rate (to Davidson’s 29%). The Mountaineers had a 58-32 rebounding edge overall. How did Bob Huggins’ team lose? The eFG% provides a clue. Davidson checked in at 48%, a fair figure but a good deal better than WVU’s paltry 36%. Turnovers again reared their ugly head...


 TO Rate
Davidson17
West Virginia25


Quotable of the night: “We have to continue to do the things we did tonight like defend, rebound and be efficient on offense.” - A.J. Abrams of Texas. With a nice tempo free reference at the end.

Sunday, December 7, 2008

Preview -- Texas

The Wildcats and Longhorns meet up as the overcard for the Jimmy V Classic in Madison Square Garden. This is the third time in four seasons the 'Horns and 'Cats face off, as they concluded a home-n-home series in the Wachovia Center back in 2007. The series is tied 1-1, as each team took the home game, so this game, on a neutral court, will be the tie breaker. Until they meet the next time...

What Others Say...
...Blue Ribbon gives the backcourt a A-, the frontcourt a A- and the bench/depth a B+. The BRY goes on to note --

"...The job Rick Barnes has done at Texas is impressive because the Longhorns have been consistently good under his watch. He's dominated recruiting in his talent-rich home state and managed to land the occasional out-of-state star...Every year, the Longhorns seem to just reload, despite losing key players to the NBA...And that's more or less the case once again...The Longhorns are one of those teams that will have a chance to win the national championship..."
-- Blue Ribbon Yearbook

ESPN Magazine picked the Longhorns to win the Big 12 Conference. Rob Dauster over at the Ballin is a Habit Blog projected Texas as the #10 team in D1 while noting...

"...The core of this Texas team is very talented - Abrams, Mason, James, and Atchley are as good as anyone. But, like last year's team, depth will be the issue, especially at guard as Mason, Abrams, and Augustin were really the only three guys that played (each averaged over 33 mpg, and Texas blew a lot of teams out)..."
-- No. 10 Texas:  2008-2009 Team Preview

Why Everyone Believes...
...AJ Abrams, Damion James, Connor Achley, Rick Barnes...

So Far...
Texas (Big 12, 6-1, RPI #37) has a number of notable wins & losses so far, including wins -- St. Joseph's (A10, 3-3, RPI #92) and UCLA (PAC 10, 4-2, RPI #94)  losses -- Notre Dame (Big East, 5-1, RPI #77). The game will be a benchmark for Villanova going forward, as the 'Cats will eventually face both St. Joseph's and Notre Dame. Villanova enters the game with an 7-0 record, gathered largely against mid/low major competition. Solid wins against Niagara (MAAC 5-2, RPI #53) and Rhode Island(A10 6-3, RPI #31) are encouraging.

Frontcourt vs frontcourt...
...Senior #4/#5 Connor Atchley (6-10, 228lbs), along with juniors #5 Dexter Pittman (6-10, 295lbs) and Damion James (6-7. 222lbs), man the 'Horns front court. Per the Longhorn's pregame notes, Atchley, Pittman and James will get the starting nod. James combines with Abrams and Mason to form a reliable scoring trio for Texas. Pittman starts but tends to get little PT; he averaged about 7 mpg for the last 4 games. Sophomore Gary Johnson (6-6, 233lbs) will be the next guy off the bench. Typically he gets 20 or so minutes and a few shots, manning the #4 he allows Atchley to slide over to cover the center spot.

The Wildcats will start Dante Cunningham and Antonio Pena at the #4/#5. Shane Clark is averaging about 17 minutes a game so far, contributing about 6 points and 3 rebounds per outing. Reggie Redding, the team's "utility man" & may well see time as a #4 if circumstances demand. Senior Frank Tchuisi has provided spot duty in each of Nova's first eight games. Dwayne Anderson may see some court time also.

Backcourt vs backcourt...
...The Athletic Department's "complete notes" publication predicts that Coach Rick Barnes will start senior DJ Abrams (5-11, 161lbs), alongside junior Justin Mason (6-2, 194lbs). Sophomore Dogus Balbay(6-0, 176lbs) and freshman Varez Ward (6-2, 190lbs) will see between 8 and 16 minutes apiece, but have not shot or scored (or rebounded or assisted, etc.) much during their time.

Scottie Reynolds and Corey Fisher will most likely start, with Corey Stokes playing the wing. Reynolds hit his season high in scoring in the Houston Baptist game. Fisher has shown a good deal of progress this season, especially in the Philly Hoops Classic and the games that have followed. Reggie Redding will no doubt get the call if AJ Abrams goes off. Dwayne Anderson saw some court time versus Penn.

Texas By the Numbers...
Over the past 5 years Texas' RPI has been as high as #4 and as low as #109. Four of those seasons has seen the 'Horns ranked #34 or higher (3 in the top 10). Texas runs at very close to average on pace this season. The 'Horns take about 68 (68.1 actually, adjusted) possessions, according to Ken Pomeroy's Texas Scout Page, the D1 average is 68.2, which ranks the Longhorns #145 out of approx. 343 D1 teams. Texas's Offensive Rating (adjusted...), 106.6, ranks them at a respectable (but not elite-level) #83. The defense however, at 77.3 (good for an elite-level #5 ranking...) should make Coach Wright, no defensive slouch himself, very envious. Comparing each team's Four Factors...

When Texas has the ball...
 FTA
eFG%TO%OR%FGA
'Horn O51.219.939.420.9
'Cat D43.323.827.436.6


While Texas is a bit more efficient with their 3 point shooting, their offense takes about 75% of their FGAs inside the arc. With a set of 6-10 front court players complemented by Damion James, makes the decision to go inside a no brainer. Abrams takes about 55% of his FGAs as 3s, so this will be a test for the Wildcat's perimeter defense. Historically 'Cats shot defense has been suspect. This year's improvement may well be confirmed (or disproved?) by the 'Horns. Given their tendency to go inside offensively, they most likely will try to exploit their size advantage versus Cunningham and Pena.

When Villanova has the ball...
 FTA
eFG%TO%OR%FGA
'Cat O53.917.942.034.7
'Horn D40.823.332.529.2


The profiles for the two teams is virtually the same. Their strengths are nearly identical. The Wildcats have compensated for poor shooting by maximizing possessions (limiting turnovers) and second chance opportunities (offensive rebounding). Those are two strong points for Texas defense. And Texas' shot defense is a bit better than Villanova's. Interesting.

Finally...
...This game will match two teams with similar approaches to winning -- value the ball, force turnovers and grab rebounds. On a poor shooting night that will increase the team's odds for winning. Which team will execute their game plan better?

Coach Wright has typically used 9 - 11 players in his rotation, but has shortened the rotation (and bench) to allocate double digit minutes to the first 7 players when the game has been competitive. This may well be the case against Texas. Whether Dwayne Anderson sees time will most likely depend on the condition of his foot and the progress of the game.

Both team's offensive/defensive ratings and pace numbers suggest this will be a virtual tossup game. They will play for about 65 or so possessions (a bit lower than Texas may like?), with the scores, favoring Texas, about a point apart.

Roster Notes, etc.
Villanova
1. Dwayne Anderson appeared briefly in Villanova's game with Penn. Spectators noted post game that he was limping noticably after the game. No word on his availability for Texas.

Texas
1. The Longhorns provide a game preview at their web site.