On Second Thought -- Plotting Trendlines for Big East Teams (pt 3)

Are Slumps Inevitable?
While even Top 5/10 teams seem to hit a point in the season where their performance seems to be below their usual level, will that slump produce a noticible "dip" in their offensive efficiency or a "rise" in their defensive efficiency (signs of a regession in their efficiency)? For Pittsburgh and Notre Dame, the answer in 2011 remarkably was no...neither appeared to register a detectable (per a third order polynomial trendline) regression in their efficiencies. The key is that while each lost multiple games (seven between in total between them), only Notre Dame managed to lose two consecutive games -- to Marquette (79-57) on 1/10 and to St. John's (72-54) on 1/16. Those two, double-digit losses account for neither lost The conference standings/seeds for the Big East Tournament:

	W	L	Pct.
Pittsburgh	15	3	0.833
Notre Dame	14	4	0.776
Syracuse	12	6	0.667
Louisville	12	6	0.667
St. John's	12	6	0.667
Cincinnati	11	7	0.611
West Virginia	11	7	0.611
Georgetown	10	8	0.556
Connecticut	9	9	0.500
Villanova	9	9	0.500
Marquette	9	9	0.500
Seton Hall	7	11	0.389
Rutgers	5	13	0.278
Providence	4	14	0.222
South Florida	3	15	0.167
DePaul	1	17	0.056

(3T #4) Louisville

They worked though the slump early...

The roster Coach Rick Pitino started the 2011 season with could not have been the one he envisioned the preceding April/May. If the Cardinals struggled with an uncertain roster and freshmen playing crucial roles in the offense, the offensive surge through the last half of conference play, coupled with the nearly season-long improvement in defense suggested they were poised for another deep post season run. Louisville finished with a 12-6 conference record and a bye seed. They used the bye to run to the BET Championship Game, losing by three, 69-66, to Connecticut. Their opening round loss to Morehead State, 62-61, six days later was shock and had to be, to the Cardinal Nation, an especially disappointing end to their season. Attributing that faltering finish to Rakeem Buckles' season-ending ACL injury in the Pittsburgh game (#16 on the chart above) maybe be tempting, but inconsistent offensive production from Peyton Siva, Preston Knowles and Kyle Kuric (those three combined for 21 points on 7-23 shooting in Louisville's loss to Morehead State) and freshmen "burnout" of Gorgui Dieng, coupled with season-long uneven contributions from the front court returning contingent is probably a more accurate assessment.

(2 #2) Notre Dame

The offense steadily improved?!

Though the Irish lost four conference games, including three (to Syracuse and two in a row to Marquette and St. John's) in the first third of the season, they were one of two teams -- conference regular season champion Pittsburgh was the other -- whose offensive efficiency trendline never dipped below their defensive efficiency trendline. Despite the three early losses (double-digits, all three) Notre Dame's offensive efficiency improved at a rate sufficient (and a glance at the trendline suggests a constant rate as well) to keep their offensive trendline above their (at that point...) regressing defensive trendline. That offensive caught my eye because it appears to be a nearly continuous rate of improvement (a kind of season-long opposite of Villanova's season-long offensive decline) through the entire conference season. The range of improvement is truly unusual, rising from a 101/102 range at the start of the conference season to finish above 120 (122/123?) by the end. And that rate was adjusted for the competition. If Coach Mike Brey's offensive efficiency is impressive, the rising defensive efficiency through the last third of the conference season may well have provided a hint of the problems that ended Notre Dame's season. Drawing a #2 seed in the Big East Tournament, the Irish could not stop Louisville in the semi-finals, falling by six points after an overtime period on Friday night. A #2 seed in the NCAA Tournament should have given them an easier path to the Swee Sixteen, but a cold shooting night versus Florida State (coupled with an 114.2 defensive efficiency in that 62 possession game...) 71-56, in the second round.

(1 #1) Pittsburgh

The gap between defensive efficiency and offensive efficiency was promising...

Coach Jamie Dixon's squad also registered an offensive trendline that stayed above the defensive trendline all season long, despite losing three games on their way to a #1 seed in the Big East Tournament. Strong, consistent defense managed to help the Panthers weather a mid season offensive slump that bottomed out with Ashton Gibb's injury (and absence through games #11 through #13). Talib Zanna's season-ending injury (he missed the last four games of the regular season and Pittsburgh's three post season games) was not the cause of Pittsburgh's early exit from the BET and NCAAs, but for a squad that played the maximum 31 games in the regular season, Zanna's 10+ minutes in the rotation were crucial to keep McGhee and Robinson fresh. With a combination of experienced players and a deep squad, this was the season seemed to favor Pittsburgh taking a deep NCAA run, with the Final Four a realistic possibility. The Panthers earned a #1 seed (West Region), but ran into a hot Butler squad in the second round, and suffered a one point loss, 71-70, in the second round.

(3T #5) St. John's

The double intersection...but in the wrong direction

Unlike Connecticut, Coach Steve Lavin's Johnnies' "double helix" trendline was curved in the wrong directions through the season. Stumbling into the Big East season with several unexpected out of conference losses, the veteran St. John's squad appeared to "get it" after hitting the bottom in the first half of the conference season (they were 4-5 through the first nine conference games). A strong run through the second half of the conference slate (a single loss Seton Hall in game #17 capped an 8-1 run through the last nine conference games). Though DJ Kennedy had not yet ended his career with an injury, the Johnnies were already showing signs of a late season slump. Dwight Hardy, a wing complement to Kennedy, was already having problems scoring efficiently, relying more on volume shooting to meet his quota for points in the St. John's system. Kennedy's injury hastened the Red Storm's exit from the Big East Tournament (a semi-final loss to Syracuse after eliminating Rutgers in the quarter-final round), and set the stage for a bookend loss to a West Coast Conference team in the first round of the NCAA Tournament. St. John's opened the early season ESPN-sponsored television marathon in November with a televised loss Gonzaga's conference mate, St. Mary's.

(3T #3) Syracuse

Evidence of a mid-season slump...

Few expected the Orange to have a season like 2010, but Coach Beoheim's squad managed to exceed the consensus predictions for their conference record. After a solid 12-6 conference record and pull down a double-bye (a #3 seed) for the Big East Tournament. Having weathered a mid-season slump (their record in games #6 through #14 was 3-6), the Orange seemed to be poised for a deep post season run in the Big East Tournament, if not the NCAAs. Syracuse was eliminated in the semi-final round at Madison Square Garden by a streaking Connecticut team (76-71). The Selection Committee did them no favors in the NCAAs when they matched them with conference mate Marquette in the second round. Despite being favored, the Orange lost by four to Buzz Williams' Golden Eagles, 66-62.

Guest Contributor Ray Floriani: A Quick Recap of Notre Dame & Florida State

by Ray Floriani

LYNDHURST, NJ - To quote a Seventies rock song, ‘another one bites the dust’. Florida State eliminated two seed Notre Dame with a convincing 71-57 victory. The Seminoles advance to the sweet 16 to face VCU. The numbers:

		Off.
Team	Poss.	Off.
Notre Dame	64	89
Florida State	64	111

* The Fighting Irish had another impressive TO rate, 13%. That was about it for the positives. Florida State played the role of aggressor, putting together some impressive ‘Notre Dame-like’ offensive numbers. The Seminoles’ eFG percentage was 55%. Interestingly Leonard Hamilton’s group shot better from three (47%) than two (45%) point range. Notre Dame struggled to find the mark anywhere. They shot 31% on the game. Tim Abromaitis (21) and Ben Hansbrough (18) put points on the board but were a combined 13 of 31 (42%) from the field. No one else on Mike Brey’s club stepped up. Nor did they have an answer for Florida State’s junior forward Bernard James, who turned in an impressive 14 point, 10 rebound, 3 block effort.

Departures -- Louisville Thru Pittsburgh

The Clearing Fog...Part 2 of 4
Before attempting to predict the shape of teams (and the conference) going into next season, I want to catalog the departures (graduating seniors, transfers and NBA draft hopefuls) and then consider the impact the departing players (and coaches) will have on the offense and defense of each program. If I have overlooked or misclassified anyone, please let me know. Identifying academic casualties will have to come later; schools are reluctant to make official announcements about grades (privacy issues), and summer school has yet to run it's course.

Louisville

Player	Class	Pos	Status
Reginald Delk	SR	G	Grad
Edgar Sosa	SR	PG	Grad
Jerry Smith	SR	G	Grad
Samardo Samuels	SO	F	NBA-In

In addition to solid rotation player Reginald Delk, the Cardinals lose three starters from the squad that finished 20-13 (11-7) and went to the NCAAs (eliminated in the first round, 77-62, by California). Were Edgar Sosa and Coach Pitino ever on the same page? Fans may debate whether Sosa is addition by subtraction, but there is near unanimous opinion that Samuels to the draft will hurt the front court. Jerry Smith never seemed to get on track in 2010. I will leave to Louisville fans to speculate whether his and Terrence Jennings' arrest in Jeffersonville, IN proved to be the "one too many distraction" for the team. Terrence Jennings will have the best opportunity to show what he can do in the low post next season, as will rising sophomore Payton Silva at the point. To this point the veterans have been complement players to two very talented classes (2009 and 2010); the staff will no doubt look for leaders from among those who will return next season. Coach Pitino brought in long-time friend and one-time assistant Ralph Willard to reshape the Cardinals' defense. Next season may be the best opportunity to see if the veteran pair still have their touch.

Marquette

Player	Class	Pos	Status
Maurice Acker	SR	G	Grad
David Cubillan	SR	G	Grad
Lazar Hayward	SR	F	Grad
Yousoupha Mbao	FR	C	Trans

Acker and Cubillan have been servicable rotation players, each of whom has had a good game or two to remember in years to come. But Lazar Hayward is a huge loss for the Golden Eagles, as virtually every game last season was a big game for him. Marquette may well continue to be plagued by the absence of a Big East-level low post player, but they will be well stocked with back court players and wings. Coach Buzz Williams has had two very (and, I have to confess, for me very unexpectedly) good seasons. He is a favorite, to fans of Marquette, the administration, and to fans of Big East basketball. The style is constant motion and energetic; Williams has players who will play that style again next season.

Notre Dame

Player	Class	Pos	Status
Tim Andree	SR	F	Grad
Ben Hansbrough	SR	G	Grad
Luke Harangody	SR	F	Grad
Tory Jackson	SR	G	Grad
Jonathan Peoples	SR	G	Grad

Tim Andree emerged to have a solid senior season, while Hanbrough and Peoples were both solid rotation contributors. Tory Jackson and Luke Harangody, four year starters will be hard to replace. Harangody was the Big East POY in 2009, but returned to lead the Irish (with teammate Jackson at the point) back to the NCAAs after a year in the NIT. Coach Mike Brey listened to offers from Oregon in April, but will return to South Bend to retool the team for next season. During his tenure at Notre Dame, Coach Brey has fashioned Notre Dame into one of the most consistently efficient offenses, and toughest home court opponents in the Big East. Expect it again next season.

Pittsburgh

Player	Class	Pos	Status
Chase Adams	SR	G	Grad
Jermaine Dixon	SR	G	Grad

Adams transferred in from Centenary late in August. While Coach Dixon worked him into the rotation, he was, as was understood at the time of his transfer, more an insurance policy than an impact player. Jermaine Dixon was a well regarded contributor, mostly on the wing. Gilbert Brown and others will be available next season. Coach Dixon continues to be one of the "most dropped" names whenever a BCS coaching position opens, and this off season was no different, as ADs from DePaul to Oregon "checked" with him before moving on to their eventual choices. Coach Dixon has a lot returning next season.

Guest Contributor Ray Floriani: Notre Dame at Seton Hall

by Ray Floriani

NEWARK, NJ - Notre Dame had two looks from three point land the final possession. They missed and Seton Hall held on for a 90-87 thriller at the Prudential Center on Thursday.

In a 71 possession game, the Efficiency and Factors:

			FTM
	ORtg	eFG%	FGA	OR%	TO%
Notre Dame	123	64	46	24	20
Seton Hall	127	65	20	19	11

The Defense rests? Well, if you look at the eFG and efficiency figures it appears so. Notre Dame trailed at the half 49-39 and coach Mike Brey will be the first to admit the Irish gave up too many points. They did make it a one possession game the second half and Brey noted it was because they were able to get key stops.

Seton Hall did two things that stood out defensively. They forced the Irish, who entered the game as a possession caring 14% Turnover Rate (TO%) club, into 14 turnovers and a 20% rate. Of greater significance was the Hall’s 20-5 edge in points off turnovers.

The Hall also defended Luke Harangued (25 PPG) in Big East play. Seton Hall coach Bobby Gonzalez used fresh bodies on Harangody in the person of Jeff Robinson, John Garcia and Herb Pope. Harangody left with an ankle injury with about 5 minutes to go but could only manage 13 points on 4 of 10 shooting in 29 minutes.

Jeremy Hazell. What more can you say other than this line?

FG	3FG	FT	REB	PTS	A	TO	Stl	EFF	EFF/MIN
12-16	8-11	3-5	3	35	1	2	4	35	.972

Hazell logged 36 minutes and was in the "shooter’s zone". EFF is the NBA efficiency total. Eff/Min is the minutes divided by efficiency, both numbers were very high. Brey noted that Hazell has a habit of getting the team going momentum wise with his scoring, especially at the Rock. The ND coach also noted that Hazell was coming off a tough 2 point (1 of 7 shooting) night in last week’s loss to Pitt. And the odds of a good shooter coming up with two straight subpar efforts are rare.

The free throws. Hall missed two one and ones the final minute (Pope and Keon Lawrence) and it nearly cost them. ND shot 23 of 27 from the line which greatly aided their effort to hang around. The Pirates were 12 of 19, amazingly enough the exact same numbers (63%) they posted from beyond the arc.

Final Notes.. Tory Jackson led ND with 25 points and Tim Abromatis added 18. Jackson had an outstanding second half consistently getting in the lane and knocking down four treys. Abromatis, a 6-8 junior, can work inside (he had 8 boards) and do damage on the perimeter. He was 12 of 12 from the line.

Jeff Robinson had 14 points and Gonzalez said it was a point of emphasis for the Hall to get a big man in double figures. Eugene Harvey got the starting nod at point and the Pirate senior had a very effective 9 point 10 assist 1 turnover showing in 28 minutes.

Seton Hall is 13-9, 4-7 in conference and hosts DePaul on Sunday. Notre Dame is 17-8, 6-6 and hosts St.John’s on Sunday. Brey spoke about the Red Storm’s big win over Louisville at MSG and that he is not too excited about facing them. Late breaking news is Harangody will miss Sunday’s game.

God and Notre Dame. There’s ‘Touchdown Jesus’ at South Bend and legend and lore claims ND is under the watchful divine eye of the Lord. Well a Seton Hall priest (pictured) was taking no chances. About 20 minutes prior to the game he was chatting with officials Tim Higgins (background) and Ed Hightower (right).

“If I write a book it will be ‘My Life on the Bubble’. But it’s better to be on the bubble than not.” - Notre Dame coach Mike Brey

“It was an important win especially coming off three straight losses. We made shots when we had to.” - Seton Hall coach Bobby Gonzalez

A Seton Hall Official Providing Spiritual Guidance
to Referees Ed Hightower & Tim Higgins

Preview 2009-10 -- Notre Dame Fighting Irish

Too Busy for the Details?
Overestimating Kyle McAlarney's offensive production while undervaluing Rob Kurz's defensive contributions yielded a massive miscalculation of Notre Dame's 2009 prospects. Will observers make the same mistake two years running? Can Coach Mike Brey find those (improved/better) perimeter scorers and front court rebounders on his bench and/or among the transfers accepted back in the summer of 2008? I don't think so, but then I have been wrong about the Irish. Twice in a row. Two years running. Prognosis -- A 3rd quartile finish.

3 Years At a Glance
A quick look at returning percentages suggest the Fighting Irish have a few mainstays to replace. The officially acknowledged 3 starters (Kyle McAlarney, Ryan Ayers and Zach Hillesland) looks about right. Luke Zeller, a rotation player of whom much was expected but little developed, chipped in some 3s and rebounds.

	Returning...
	2010	2009	2008
%Min	47.0	84.8	67.7
%Pts	53.2	83.2	60.5
%FGM	55.7	85.3	61.3
%3FGM	19.7	84.7	35.9
%OReb	67.2	81.9	84.7
%DReb	59.2	79.5	73.5
%TReb	61.6	80.2	77.0

Returning numbers hint strongly at the role Harangody (returning) and McAlarney (graduated) have played in Notre Dame's system for the past three seasons -- large percentages of points and rebounds are coming back, but very little of the perimeter game. Coach Brey's task has been to find shooters to fill McAlarney's (and previously graduated Colin Falls'...) shoes.

	According to Pomeroy...
	2008-09		2007-08		2006-07
	#	Rank	#	Rank	#	Rank
Overall ORtg	115.2	19	116.4	22	119.0	10
Overall DRtg	97.2	85	92.4	42	93.0	49
Big East ORtg	108.2	5	110.1	2	106.9	3
Big East DRtg	108.1	13	103.6	10	99.3	8
Four Factors -- Overall
All Off. eFG%	50.0	131	52.2	78	53.5	42
All Off. TOv%	13.7	1	18.2	30	18.1	30
All Off. OReb%	31.1	235	35.5	75	36.1	77
All Off. FTA/FGA	27.0	338	34.1	240	40.3	79
All Def. eFG%	47.8	105	46.7	40	47.2	59
All Def. TOv%	14.4	344	17.1	330	20.9	181
All Def. OReb%	30.5	78	30.3	67	31.2	70
All Def. FTA/FGA	27.2	14	23.0	4	30.9	58
Four Factors -- Big East
BE Off. eFG%	49.7	9	52.4	3	50.8	5
BE Off. TOv%	14.2	1	18.2	6	17.9	5
BE Off. OReb%	30.9	13	33.7	8	32.1	11
BE Off. FTA/FGA	26.5	15	37.1	10	37.9	8
BE Def. eFG%	49.2	9	48.0	4	47.8	8
BE Def. TOv%	12.9	16	15.5	15	19.1	8
BE Def. OReb%	31.4	3	32.8	7	34.2	9
BE Def. FTA/FGA	31.4	7	23.4	1	31.6	5
Miscellanious
All Gms Cons	26.0	332	24.0	291	24.7	304
All Gms Luck	-.042	262	+.034	65	-.025	213

Reviewing Notre Dame's Big East "Four Factors", it is striking that while the Irish offense has "drifted" downward the past 2 seasons, their defense collapsed in 2009. The culprits? Look to a declining shot defense (eFG%), a nasty rise in the foul-to-FGA rate (FTA/FGA) and an chronic lack of on-ball defense (their TOv% -- turnover rate) that just got worse. If the Irish did a slightly better job in denying their Big East opponents second chance field goal opportunities, they more than gave it back with slightly worse shot defense and allowing opponents to get to the free throw line. For those who point to the drop off in Notre Dame's offense (specifically their decline in 3 point conversions), consider that had the Irish played even "average" defense last season (about 104 or 1.04 points per possession) they would have finished with a 10-8 record instead of an 8-10 record. And 10-8 would have given the Irish a 19-11 record going into the Big East Tournament; they would have been poised with 1-2 more wins, to go back to the NCAAs.

	For the Record...
	2008-09			2007-08			2006-07
	W	L	Pct.	W	L	Pct.	W	L	Pct.
Overall	21	15	0.583	25	8	0.758	24	6	0.800
Big East	8	10	0.444	14	4	0.778	11	5	0.688
Post Season?	NIT/Rnd 4			NCAA/Rnd 2			NCAA/Rnd 1

Notre Dame's Nucleus
Coach Mike Brey has Luke Harangody in the middle and pg Tory Jackson at the point. That is as good a start as any can expect.

On Offense
Player	Min%	Ortg	Poss%	Shot%	eFG%	PPWS	FTR%
Tory Jackson	84.4	100.7	20.6	17.6	46.0	0.97	30.9
Luke Harangody	80.6	109.2	34.0	35.5	47.0	1.04	35.1
Jonathan Peoples	35.2	97.5	15.7	14.8	45.0	0.92	13.4
Tyrone Nash	26.6	115.7	16.2	12.0	50.7	1.04	68.5

On Defense
Player	Min%	OR%	DR%	Ast%	TO%	Blk%	Stl%
Tory Jackson	84.4	3.7	9.8	25.6	19.4	0.4	2.0
Luke Harangody	80.6	10.6	25.4	14.1	9.1	2.5	1.5
Jonathan Peoples	35.2	6.1	10.7	14.6	18.9	0.9	1.7
Tyrone Nash	26.6	13.7	19.1	10.2	12.1	1.5	2.3

Jackson and Harangody will serve as the bookends, but will senior Jon Peoples or junior Tyrone Nash be ready to supply (and surpass...) the missing 3 pointers and rebounds Ayers, McAlarnye, Hillesland and Zeller took when they left the program? From his numbers Nash appears to be the more promising prospect, but his playing time (26.6% of the minutes at his forward position) suggest his rebounding, block and steal rate numbers may be distorted (they rest well at the high end for DI players). With a Shot% of 12.0 he was clearly not the 1st or 2nd (or 3rd or 4th) option on offense...so those very efficient numbers may also be overstated. He and Peoples will obviously see more time this season and have an excellent opportunity to establish their claim to starting jobs (or higher positions in the rotation). Deeper on Mike Brey's bench, juniors Tim Abromaitis (forward), Carleton Scott (forward) and Tom Kopko (guard), along with senior Tim Andree (forward), will be available for playing time.

Significant Additions
Notre Dame will introduce 4 true freshmen (assuming no one redshirts) this season, but, Jack Cooley aside for a moment, the biggest impact from new players will come from Notre Dame's incoming transfer, 6-3 shooting guard Ben Hansbrough, a senior (with 2 years of eligibility left) transfer from Mississippi State. Scott Martin, a 6-8 junior (with 3 years of eligibility left) guard/forward who transferred in from Matt Painter's Purdue program, but will sit a second consecutive season (2009-10), as he tore his ACL in an early fall team workout. Scott will be missed this season, as he logged 700 minutes in 32 games for the Boilermakers in the 2008 season. While Scott was assertive on offense (%Poss & %Shot were > 23.0), he was not particularly efficient (eFg% < 50.0), he showed aggression with the ball, getting to the line nearly once for every two FGAs. Better still were his contributions on defense. Pomeroy ranked Martin in his Top 500 in block and steal rates (steals in particular would be especially valued by the Irish), and his rebounding, while not top 500 worthy (lacking minutes to be ranked), Martin's rebounding numbers, comparable to departed Zach Hillesland's, would have helped to shore up Notre Dame's presense in the paint.

Ben Hansbrough played over 1800 minutes in his two seasons in Rick Stansbury's program, averaging 10.8 points per game his sophomore season (2008). While not the 1st (or 2nd) option in the Bull Dog offense, Hansbrough was a very efficient scorer (PPWS 1.16), largely from the perimeter. He took nearly 60% of his FGAs from beyond the arc, hitting 35.8% of the time. Using Pelton's inside/outside stat, Hansbrough scored a -43.2 -- decidedly outside. Hansbrough will step into McAlarney's role, patrolling the perimeter, looking for an opening (and a kickout from Harangody?) to take a shot. Hansbrough will help with assists, but given his turnover rate, this part of his game was a wash for his first 2 seasons. His contributions on the defensive side of the ball may be minimal if his history with Mississippi State holds through his tenure at South Bend.

Incoming power forward Jack Cooley (Glenbrook South HS, Glenview, ILL) heads the incoming class of four true freshman. He is, according to scouting evaluations, the best of the lot. Others include 6-5, 205 lb #3 Joey Brooks out of Strake Jesuit College Prep (TX), Mike Broghammer, another 6-8 #4 out of Minnesota and Thomas Knight, a 6-8 wide body (260 lbs) #5 from Maine.

Explode If...
1. Coach Brey can find a pair of sharp shooters who can replace the departed McAlarney and Colin Falls. Best candidates are Jon Peoples and Ben Hansbrough, but with conversion rates in the mid 30s, both will have to become more accurate, even as they become more prolific.
2. Coach Brey can find a Rob Kurz clone in Tyrone Nash or Jack Cooley (or any of the others). There is a chance, with defensive eyes focused on Harangody, for a less than completely polished forward to operate, converting on interior passes and grabbing rebounds.


Implode If...
It is a little difficult, with Harangody and Jackson on board and a half-way decent McAlarney replacement (Hansbrough? Peoples?) roaming the perimeter, to see a floor much lower than where the Irish landed last season. What would have to go wrong for Notre Dame to lose ground on their 8-10 2009 finish?
1. Harangody and Jackson cannot run the offense by themselves. When an opponent shut down (and frustrated) Harangody the Irish foundered looking for shots and second chance opportunities.
2. Take either Jackson or Harangody out of the picture and the Irish are in trouble. Really bad trouble.

Crucial Run/Bellweather Games
The Chicago Invitational Challenge, along with the long standing series with UCLA, appear to be the most challenging parts of Notre Dame's OOC. The Irish will host 2 mid/low major Chicago Invitational participants, Kennesaw State (Atlantic Sun) and Liberty (Big South) before heading out to Chicago to face Northwestern (Big Ten) in the semi-finals. Northwestern returns virtually all of their roster from 2009, and should be in the conversation for an NCAA bid in March 2010. The second game in Chicago will match Notre Dame with either Iowa State (Big 12) or St. Louis (A10), both of whom will be middling teams in their respective conferences. UCLA however, will most likely be Notre Dame's highest regarded opponent. Before the Big East schedule gets underway. The entire OOC may not be set at this point, but of the 6 teams they will face that have not been identified, 3 had RPIs >= 295 last season, while 2 others had RPIs > 200. Of the 12 known games, taking a 10-2 record into the Big East season may not be reason for optimism.

Few Big East teams are as bi-polar in their home-away play as Notre Dame. The Irish have done 0.500 or better on the road only twice in the last six Big East seasons, while they have run their home Big East slate twice over the same period, and finished as low as 0.500 only once. January will be the month for Irish road games as they play 5 of their games before 1/31 (Connecticut, South Florida, Cincinnati, Villanova and Rutgers in that order). 2-3 (or better) in those games would be good news in South Bend, as they will likely pick up another road win (Louisville? Marquette?) before they head off to Madison Square Garden and the BET. Notre Dame will play only four home games during that stretch (12/30 - 1/30) -- having a 0.500 record (+ or - one) on February 1 would be very good news for the Golden Domers. A 3-6 record (but no worse) would not preclude their getting to 9-9 by season's end, as they open their 2nd half with a two game homestand of Cincinnati followed by South Florida. But they would have to sweep those two games, pick a road win and while holding serve at home, to squeeze six wins out of the second half of the season.