Big East Freshmen: The 2008 All-Rookie Team

Why would I want to revisit last season's rookies so far removed from last season...well a few of these ten (minus Donta Greene -- departed for the NBA) will be team leaders next season. But even those returning to "well stocked" teams will be expected to show progress over their freshman production. I put together 2 tables, the first looks at possession-based offensive numbers (Poss%, Shot%, ORtg, eFG% and FTRate), along with PPWS, a stat thats gives us an idea of how effective a player is once he gets his shot off. Besides, these were, in the opinion of the press and conference coaches, the eleven best freshmen in the conference, and I was curiuous to see if the numbers supported those opinions.

Player	Coll	%Min	ORtg	%Poss	%Shot	eFG%	PPWS	FTRate
Greene	Cuse	89.2	105.4	23.2	28.2	50.5	1.07	25.5
Flynn	Cuse	88.5	112.9	21.7	22.7	52.6	1.13	34.1
Jones	USF	87.1	111.3	24.0	25.9	53.0	1.15	42.1
Burrell	SJU	78.5	84.4	22.5	23.0	42.9	0.95	33.3
Koshwal	DPU	78.0	101.2	20.3	18.2	50.0	1.05	43.1
Hazell	Hall	67.0	111.7	20.4	24.6	51.1	1.09	28.1
Blair	Pitt	64.6	109.2	24.4	22.2	53.7	1.12	47.6
Freeman	GTown	63.5	115.0	18.4	20.2	60.3	1.25	21.9
Tucker	DPU	56.8	107.4	28.1	31.7	51.1	1.07	28.0
Chandler	RU	54.7	87.6	31.3	31.6	46.6	0.96	34.1
Fisher	Nova	53.1	94.1	25.5	27.5	42.3	0.93	26.9

Statistics were drawn from Ken Pomeroy's web site, the last update (usually the April 7 version) of each team's "Scouting Report" Page. Click on the College beside any player to scroll to his college's Scouting Report.

The players are ordered by playing time (percentage of available minutes they actually played). While playing times may have varied greatly, note that possessions and shots (ie role within their respective team's offense...) showed a good deal less variaton. Virtually everyone of them was a first (Chandler, Tucker), second or third option on offense. Austin Freeman's possessions may seem light compared to the others, but consider that Georgetown had a very balanced offense last season -- Freeman's Poss% and Shot% numbers were almost identical to senior Jon Wallace's numbers. Compared to the 2007 All Big East Rookie Team, the 2008 edition seemed a bit less efficient offensively as well. Of the three whose ORtgs were <100, Rutgers' Corey Chandler and St. John's Justin Burrell seemed conspicuously out of place -- I cannot recall finding a player on an All conference team with an ORtg < 90. Consider the circumstances of each however. St. John's, like Rutgers a "scoring challenged" team in 2007, lost a good deal of it's scoring punch in the off season with graduations and transfers. Going into the season with a class of 7 freshmen to fill out the roster around a couple of upper classmen, the Johnnies found themselves starting the season without their best returning scorer, Anthony Mason Jr. Li'l Mase ended up missing a total of eight games over the course of the season, and Burrell, the most heralded of the incoming class, shouldered a good deal of the scoring burden, quite possibly more than he may have taken on had Mason been healthy in November. Burrell, who finished the season as the Johnnies high scorer, drew a good deal of attention from opposing defenses throughout the season. Corey Chandler of Rutgers faced a similar situation going into the season. Though no significant contributor on the Scarlet Knight's roster was injured, there was actually no "significant contributor" on the roster in the first place. Rutgers, lacking a go-to guy since Quincy Douby entered the NBA draft early in the 2007 off season, had limped through Coach Fred Hill Jr's inaugural season with a team offense (ORtg) ranked at #291 out of 336 in 2006-07. Forward JR Inman took more shots and scored more points, but Chandler, despite missing 3 games near the mid-point of the Big East regular season, drew a good deal of attention from the defenses. He was very capable of having a big night, as many Wildcat fans know all too well.

I grouped the rebounding and some of the defensive stat together for the table below. Anyone having trouble understanind why Mac Koshwal was on the Rookie Team need look no farther than his OR% and DR% for an answer...

Player	Coll	OR%	DR%	%Blk	%Stl
Donte Greene	Cuse	5.5	15.7	4.8	2.0
Jonny Flynn	Cuse	2.0	6.0	0.5	2.3
Dominique Jones	USF	4.5	10.0	0.8	2.6
Justin Burrell	SJU	6.6	15.8	2.4	0.8
Mac Koshwal	DPU	12.0	18.0	2.2	2.3
Jeremy Hazell	Hall	3.1	6.2	0.6	2.9
DeJuan Blair	Pitt	16.6	23.2	4.6	3.9
Austin Freeman	GTown	4.9	8.7	0.3	2.1
Dar Tucker	DPU	8.7	14.1	0.9	2.4
Corey Chandler	RU	6.2	9.5	1.9	3.9
Corey Fisher	Nova	1.6	8.0	0.0	2.8

Co-ROY Dominique Jones may have put up some gaudy numbers for the Bull's offense, but a look at the rebounding numbers for DeJuan Blair of Pittsburgh more than explains why he shared the ROY honors with Jones. DeJuan's OR% and DR% are Top 100 (#6 and #59 respectively), surprising when I realized he was also Top 500 offensively (ORtg). I confess when I first reviewed Blair's dimensions I doubted he would be tall enough and mobile enough to compete in the Big East. He proved to be both. No wonder Cassiem Diggs transferred out after a single season.

The Good Surprises...
DeJuan Blair & Dominique Jones (am I starting to sound like a broken record?). Blair may have had a local reputation coming into Pittsburgh, but he was under appreciated by media and fans nationally. His coming out party at Madison Square Garden, complements of Duke, was marred only by the season-long loss of Mike Cook. Blair went on to share ROY honors with South Florida's Dominique Jones. Something of a practice phenom, Jones got the starting nod over better known redshirt freshman Dante Curry and veteran Solomon Bozeman (both of whom subsequently transferred...) and scored 13 points in his first outing. Near the end of the Bull's out of confernce schedule Jones had a 3 game scoring jag of 30, 30 and 25 against Central Florida, Richmond and Alabama-Birmingham, respectively. That got everyone's attention. Jones went on to score 20 or more points, including a career high 31 against Seton Hall, during his inaugural Big East season. Accomplihsments may pale when measured against Blair and Jones, but Seton Hall's Jeremy Hazell was, for me at least, another pleasant surprise. I had expected Nutter and Laing, along with Harvey, to provide the offensive punch for the Pirates this past season. While the Seton Hall back court seemed crowded (and talented), Hazell proved there is always room on Coach Gonzalez's roster for a scorer.

The Bad Surprises...
While virtually no one tabbed McDonald's All American and Villanova freshman Corey Stokes as the preseason ROY (ok, maybe I did...), not making the All big East Rookie Team was a letdown. Despite some strong exhibition outings, as the season started, the freshman struggled to find his spot in the offense. Stokes adjusted, he learned to play Villanova Defense and began to come on at the season's end. Georgetown's Chris Wright, a very heavily recruited point out of DC, was injured just before the beginning of the Big East regular season and despite a series of post season appearances, ultimately appeared in less than ½ of the Hoyas games, logging < 300 minutes total. Despite some promising numbers (56.4 eFG%, 1.12 PPWS), Wright had virtually no impact on the team and the games he appeared in.

No Surprise (thankfully)...
Mac Koshwal and Dar Tucker, both out of DePaul, were as good as advertised. Unfortunately aside from senior Draelon Burns, the balance of Demons team was worse than advertised. As disappointing (maddenly inconsistent) as the 2007-08 Demons were Burns, Koshwal and Tucker were not. And that kept a season that was extremely disappointing and frustrating from becoming far, far, far worse. Though Syracuse's Jonny Flynn did not, as predicted by the preseason prognosticators, take share the ROY award with teammate Donte Greene, he was every bit as good as most thought he would be. And he will be back in 2008-09.

Big East Freshmen: Three Weeks and Counting

I pulled Ken Pomeroy's individual stats from each Big East team's Scouting Page to compile the numbers. Most are from February 17, so this is the look with about 3 weeks of regular season play left. I have organized the data as I did for the mid January look, by shooting-related -- percentages of possessions and shots, offensive rating, field goal efficiency and PPWS (not Pomeroy's stat...), and nonshooting-related -- rebounding percentages, FTRate (FTA/FGA), assist rate and turnover rate (turnovers per 100 possessions). I am presenting those players who have logged at least 35% of the time at their positions (Min% > 35.0), as I suspect that, barring a last minute rush, that individuals in that group are probably the ones who will get serious looks. Somehow I suspect a coach who has limited (severely?) the playing time for a freshman would have a problem lobbying hard for the player at the end of the season. The offensive data:

Name	Coll.	Min%	%ORtg	%Poss	%Shots	eFG%	PPWS
Gilbert Brown	Pitt	55.0	116.4	14.6	14.5	50.8	1.11
Jeremy Hazell	Hall	63.7	114.6	20.7	25.7	53.1	1.12
A. Freeman	GTown	64.6	113.6	18.6	21.1	57.1	1.20
D. Jones	USF	85.4	112.8	22.8	23.8	54.8	1.17
Jonny Flynn	'Cuse	87.8	112.6	21.9	22.6	52.0	1.12
DeJuan Blair	Pitt	64.6	108.9	24.3	23.2	51.3	1.07
Dar Tucker	DePaul	53.3	108.2	28.5	33.1	50.2	1.04
Donte Greene	'Cuse	88.0	107.7	23.4	28.4	50.7	1.08
Mac Koshwal	DePaul	77.8	100.4	20.4	18.1	51.9	1.07
Rashad Bishop	'Nati	55.2	96.7	15.8	15.0	45.5	0.99
Corey Fisher	Nova	57.2	96.5	25.8	28.9	44.9	0.95
D J Kennedy	John's	65.1	96.4	18.7	16.5	46.1	1.03
Mike Coburn	Rutgers	67.4	93.6	19.6	19.1	43.6	0.98
Scoop Jardine	'Cuse	44.9	90.5	16.8	15.0	45.1	1.01
Corey Stokes	Nova	38.3	90.3	15.6	18.8	39.7	0.89
Justin Burrell	John's	83.0	88.0	22.4	23.3	43.0	0.96
Corey Chandler	Rutgers	56.0	87.1	30.8	31.5	45.3	0.96
Paris Horne	John's	35.5	85.9	20.1	20.1	48.4	1.08
Orane Chin	USF	50.3	85.8	15.8	15.3	40.1	0.84
Malik Boothe	John's	47.0	80.1	15.5	12.8	35.9	0.82

Note the cutoff provides a pool of 20 candidates, from which a Rookie of the Year and an All Big East team of 11 would be drawn. I suspect there may be some last season rushes (see last paragraph, below). But by-and-large I have to believe the ROY and most, if not all, of the All Rookie Team is present in the data above (and immediately below). Top 500 stats in a category is highlighed with a lime green background, while Top 100 stats in a category is lightlighted with a yellow background. Note that Pomeroy uses a cutoff of 40% Min% when ranking ORtg, Poss%, Shots%, OR%, DR%, Assists and Turnovers, but ups the cutoff mark to 60% of Min% when ranking FTRate and eFG%. The non-shooting categories:

Name	Coll	Min%	OR%	DR%	FRate	ARate	TORate
DeJuan Blair	Pitt	64.6	16.9	24.2	41.5	7.0	17.1
D J Kennedy	John's	65.1	8.6	19.1	52.9	10.5	23.0
Mac Koshwal	DePaul	77.8	11.8	17.5	41.7	6.7	20.5
Justin Burrell	John's	83.0	7.1	16.0	34.3	4.2	22.1
Donte Greene	'Cuse	88.0	6.1	15.4	29.1	9.9	16.5
Dar Tucker	DePaul	53.3	9.9	14.1	26.7	11.0	10.1
Corey Stokes	Nova	38.3	4.1	14.1	13.7	6.9	18.9
Paris Horne	John's	35.5	4.2	13.3	23.7	8.8	28.7
Orane Chin	South Fla	50.3	6.0	11.8	46.8	8.1	20.5
Rashad Bishop	'Nati	55.2	5.5	11.3	34.5	13.5	21.5
Corey Chandler	Rutgers	56.0	5.7	11.3	33.6	15.6	22.3
Gilbert Brown	Pitt	55.0	4.6	10.0	36.1	13.6	16.3
Dominique Jones	South Fla	85.4	4.6	9.8	45.2	18.3	16.8
Austin Freeman	GTown	64.6	5.4	8.8	20.1	11.7	17.0
Mike Coburn	Rutgers	67.4	2.7	8.4	38.7	18.8	21.4
Malik Boothe	John's	47.0	1.5	7.1	38.5	24.3	29.8
Corey Fisher	Nova	57.2	1.8	7.0	21.4	23.8	19.4
Jeremy Hazell	Hall	63.7	2.9	6.8	23.9	5.9	9.4
Scoop Jardine	'Cuse	44.9	1.5	6.7	30.4	19.8	30.6
Jonny Flynn	'Cuse	87.8	1.8	6.2	38.7	26.2	19.3

The data is sorted by defensive rebounding percentage. Not a coincidence that most (but not all...) guards are listed near (or at) the bottom of the table. Had I sorted by assist rate most point guards would have been listed at or near the top.

Rookie of the Year...
The preseason choice was a tie between Syracuse's Donte Greene and Jonny Flynn. While most of the top half of the tables could and may well, receive votes, historically there have been a number of biases at work for the regular season Rookie of the Year honor...
1. ROYs tend to come from teams that finish in the top half of the conference (and are most likely going to a post season tournament).
2. The ROYs tend to come directly over from the preseason list...so unless the preseason favorite implodes during the season (see Syracuse's Paul Harris last year) or otherwise falls seriously short in expectations, he (or they) have to be considered favorites for the regular season honor. The ROY tends in most cases, to affirm the judgement of the preseason voters, but may not necessarily be the player who had the best season.

So the question, properly phrased, should be, "Were Flynn and/or Greene's numbers/season good enough to reaffirm as Rookies of the Year?" Another Villanova blogger suggested they may again share the award, but I suspect that Flynn alone will be honored in the award runnup to the Big East Tournament. No one could have anticipated that Eric Devendorf would sustain a season-ending injury and that Josh Wright would leave the team, but both events came to pass, even on the heels of Andy Rautins' season-ending injury in August. Flynn and Greene have had to assume larger scoring roles than may have been originally envisioned. Syracuse may not be having the year the Blue Ribbon Yearbook folks imagined when they ranked Syracuse #20 in their preseason Top 25, but the two freshmen, along with fellow (though less heralded) freshmen Rick Jackson and Scoop Jardine, sophomore Paul Harris and junior Arinze Onuaku (and transfer Kristof Onegaet) have fashioned a very respectable record under the circumstances. And they are in good stead for NCAA consideration. Flynn's numbers, both shooting-related (ORtg, eFG and PPWS) and nonshooting-related (assist rate, FTA/FGA), are among the strongest in the conference and D1, freshman or no. Greene has been burdened from the preseason onward, by comparisons to Syracuse great Carmelo Anthony. Fairly or no, he has come up short.

Very Good But...
I would be shocked if the ROY voting unanimously affirmed the preseason honorees (either or both...), but while the following freshmen are certainly, in my opinion, worthy and will most likely receive some votes, each will fall short (but be most likely recognized by placement on the All Rookie Team).
Dominique Jones -- if winning the most Rookie of the Week honors was the criteria, then the South Florida #2 guard would be neck and neck to the wire with one or two others (see below). But recognition came after the preseason Media Day festivities. And the Bulls may not even get to New York City. A lock for the All Rookie Team though. Coach Heath has been very good with the guards he recruited to Arkansas, and I expect the same will be true at USF. Jones should do very well over the next 2 - 3 years.
DaJuan Blair -- Pittsburgh fans knew what was in store for the Big East, as Blair went to high school locally. For the rest of us the Duke game in mid December was the early notice. Blair by and large has lived up to expectations, despite having to function without a true point guard to feed him post passes. The Panthers are in good shape, despite some losses over the past two weeks, to dance next month. Blair's numbers have tailed off the past 3 or so weeks. Freshman fatigue? Fields' injury? I am not sure, but he has time to recover and help the Panthers take a post season run. Another All Big East Rookie Team lock.
Mac Koshwal -- the DePaul forward/center continues to have a strong season. But the Blue Demons are struggling and may not even get to New York City. I think both he and fellow Blue Demon freshman Dar Tucker are also locks for the All Big East Rookie Team.
Jeremy Hazell -- has earned a few Rookie of the Week honors with some eye-popping scoring numbers. Seton Hall is moving into the middle of the conference, and is positioned (should the Pirates run the table with the rest of their Big East schedule...) for post season discussions. Like Blair, Hazell can stake claim to consideration as a difference-maker for the Pirates. All Big East Rookie Team recognition may be all he gets however.

And Then There is...
Their numbers and recognition may not match the first list, but this list has a few All Big East Rookies as well.
Austin Freeman -- the Georgetown wing has been good enough to send Patrick Ewing Jr. to the bench, but a rookie on arguably one of the two best teams in the conference (notice that Louisville's Preston Knowles is no where to be seen...) provides Freeman with little opportunity for those "difference-maker" moments. His numbers however are solid and I would be very surprised if he misses the cutoff for All Big East Rookie Team. He should have a very good career with the Hoyas.
Justin Burrell -- The St. John's forward has had a productive season statistically, but the Johnnies are really struggling. As part of a line-up/rotation that includes too many freshman, Burrell and freshmen teammates DJ Kennedy, Paris Horne, Malik Boothe and (not listed) Sean Evans will provide their fans with more than a few good times and memories. Starting next season. Most likely one, probably Burrell, will make the Rookie Team.
Gilbert Brown -- His numbers top the chart, but with possessions and shots (%Poss, %Shots) in the mid teens, he is not really a first or second option on offense. Cook's injury provided him an oppportunity to step into a larger role with the Panthers, but six weeks later he is still splitting time with upper classman Keith Benjamin as fellow freshman Blair takes a good deal of the media attention. With his scoring as efficient as it is, I would not be surprised if he makes the All Big East Rookie Team. But with his impact as small as it has been in Cook's absence (and Blair's emergence), I would not be surprised if he doesn't.
Rashad Bishop -- Cincinnati, like St. John's, brought in a bunch of newcomers, JUCOs and freshmen, to take up spots on the roster. Center Anthony McClain has received consistent, if very small amounts, of playing time. Only Bishop has consistently pulled down double digit minutes and for a time, earned a spot in the starting lineup. Coach Cronin has moved him back to the bench lately, but he continues to get PT. Might be a good candidate for the All Rookie Team if he finishes strong.
Corey Fisher -- the most consistent of the three freshmen Villanova brought in this year. While Malcolm Grant has earned some Rookie of the Week recognition for his early season heroics and MDAA Corey Stokes has begun to round into form, Fisher has been the most consistent from early season to the past week. While none has had, to this point, the season the Nova Nation may have anticipated, an All Big East Team without (at least...) one of them is a little tough to imagine. My guess at this point is only one will make it, and the strongest of the group so far has been Fisher.
Corey Chandler -- the Scarlet Knights also brought in a promising group of freshmen and Chandler was the recognized leader of their contengient. After an up and down OOC Chandler suffered a stress fracture and was sidelined for about 3 weeks. Mike Coburn moved into the starting lineup in the point guard spot. Chandler has been back about a month but Coburn continues to start. Chandler, Coburn and junior Anthony Farmer rotate roles and time in the backcourt in a system that seems to provide all three with opportunities to alternately direct the team and score. Rutgers has not won enough to establish either Coburn and/or Chandler as difference-makers, but one (Chandler?) will most likely get a spot on the All Rookie Team. Of the other freshmen, Earl Pettis, a wing out of Philadelphia who prepped a year before joining the Scarlet Knights, has joined Chandler and Coburn in Coach Hill's rotation.