Preview -- Pittsburgh #2...Not Here

The Wildcats and Panthers know each other pretty well by now, having played 9 times in the Wright-Dixon Era (2003-2009). Villanova's tally during that period -- 4-5. Everybody who follows either (or both) of the teams has a pretty good idea of what each must do in order to win. And make no mistake, either team can win this game, despite what the simulations and analysts might say. So how are the experts calling this one?

The ink media homies say...
The game has NCAA, Big East, but ultimately state-level rivalry implications that dig into the psychie of each of Pennsylvania's two largest cities...
Joe Juliani over at the Philadelphia Inquirer thinks the game will focus on defense -- consistent with the shared history and each staff's "defense first" philosophy. Juliano looks to Cunningham, Reynolds and Fisher to power the Wildcats, while Young, Blair and Fields will headline for the Panthers.
The Post-Gazette's Ray Fittipaldo believes the Panthers' rocky start in the tournament is behind them as their win over Xavier Thursday gets them over that Sweet Sixteen hump. The Panthers are looking to return to the Final Four for the first time since 1941. Fittipaldo's material is drawn mostly from yesterday's press conferences.
The PDN's Mike Kern believes the momentum gathered through Nova's 1st three tournament games will be essential if the Wildcats are to prevail today. Kern does a nice job of juxtaposing coaching records/backgrounds and records, paths to the Elite Eight and "To Do" Lists. He too foresees the basketball equivalent of a Sumo wrestling match.
The Tribune-Review's John Grupp puts his analysis on the sidebar and gives senior guard Levance Fields center stage. The Panther Nation looks at this as the biggest game in Pitt basketball history, and Fields wants to win it for Head Coach Jamie Dixon. Keys to the game according to Grupp include (for Villanova...) containing Young and distribute the scoring, and (for Pittsburgh) keeping Blair on the court and out of foul trouble, valuing the ball and hit their outside shots, so the 'Cats will not be able to collapse on Blair and shut down the passing lanes.

The national media say...
ESPN links to an anonymous preview from the AP, though Andy Katz does kick in two pieces, the first a close-up recap of Pitt's tight win over Xavier; the second a compare/contrast piece on Dixon & Wright, two coaches, Katz suggests, who will make up the new hierarchy in the Big East (assuming each stays put).
Over at CBS Sportsline, former assistant and current HC Joe Jones and Jason Horowitz do a video preview. Jones likes Villanova as Pitt has been inconsistent so far. Over at the regional coverage they posted a side-by-side comparison of the Panthers and Wildcats. Authored by "The Sports Xchange", it suggests Blair has to avoid foul trouble and Scottie is Nova's go-to guy. CBS stringer Mike Freeman, doing his best Gregg Doyel cover, finger wags at Pittsburgh for their string of close wins through the first three rounds of the tournament. He also does a pretty good side-by-side profiles of Blair and Cunningham, suggesting this is going to be a battle on the inside.

Alex Wolff over at Sports Illustrated starts out with a profile on DeJuan Blair, works in the improbability storyline (well mined) on Blair, before finishing up with a spoonful of interstate rivalry (Pittsburgh vs Philadelphia), topped with a large helping of class rivalry (Pittsburgh is working class with dirty air, the Main Line is toney...). Bring your Alka-Seltzer.

What the Bloggers say...
The NBE Blogger calls this one for Pitt, 73-67. That is a bit more than most others.
Over at the Bleacher Report a committee of writers favors Pitt, 3-2. A few basic stats to look at for those who are interested. Frequent Nova writer ? puts together a "...By the Numbers" breakdown of the two teams, on his way to teasing you into yet another click on the Bleacher Reports web site. Sorry I didn't go the extra click, so I don't know who he picked (but I'm gonna guess it might be Villanova).
The Nova Nation Blogosphere is unusually quiet this weekend. Everyone in Boston (I see Chris over at IBBW posted a quick note from Bean town, indicating that the VUAA reception is overbooked to the point where they have had to rent a second bar...some things never change)? Preparing "Regional Final/Off to the Final Four!" posts? It seems that only Let's Go Nova, VUhoops.com and the Villanovan Sports Blog have posted pregame reviews. VUHoops.com posted the latest in their pregame series, "Game 37 vs #1 Pittsburgh", which gives a run down on what has changed since their last meeting in January. Their second post, "Comparing Stats with Pitt", is more a Tale of the Tape post as they take a statistical look at the two teams. LGN's Pete posted that this might be the first of the four NCAA games so far where the Wildcats may be at a disadvantage on the interior. Meanwhile David over at the Villanovan Sports Blog seems to close the circle from the senior's freshman year, when the team ran to the Regional Finals in Minneapolis only to fall to Florida to this season, when these seniors want to take the next step.


What Pomeroy and Pythagoras Say...
Largely overlooked in the 1st few rounds of the tournament, the Wildcat's Offensive and Defensive adjusted ratings have "crossed over" into the elite territory associated with Final Four teams. The The game will be played for about 68 possessions, with the Panthers taking a 74-72 decision.

Bloggers Roundtable -- On Second Thought...

Pico over at the East Coast Bias Blog organized an end of the season round table for bloggers from 14 of the 16 Big East members (Cincinnati & South Florida do not have many/any? bloggers). Pico sent out a 6 question questionnaire the results of which he published in "Big East Bloggers Roundtable: Pre-Conference Tourney Q and A". I enjoyed participating, and hopefully a number of readers will get over to East Coast Bias to catch all of the responses. After reading through Pico's compilation, I had a few more thoughts (I know, I had a lot of thoughts already...)...

Not asked, but volunteered here -- my vote for POY is Jerel McNeal. Granted you can make an argument for Blair (John Gasaway over at Basketball Prospectus did earlier today...), but consider the Haragody/Hibbert precedent which practically dictates that an underclassman named as POY should jump to the NBA in the off season. McNeal has performed well all season long, has clearly helped his team improve over last season and is a senior (which in my opinion, encourages the underclassmen to stay and hone their game before jumping to the league). For me, the 1st Pittsburgh -- Connecticut, in which Blair completely dominated Thabeet in the paint (that flip-over-the-back move appeared to intimidate the Husky center) ended the UConn's Thabeet-for-POY boomlet (Big East or elsewhere).

I believe the "OY"s should come from upper division teams, or provide the kind of help that markedly improves their team's standing from the previous season. They should be a reason why the team did well. And that's the problem with Mike Rosario and Greg Echenique -- Rutgers was worse this year than last year. Rutgers won 3 conference games in 2008; the Scarlet Knights won 2 in 2009. Their offensive/defensive efficiency difference was -0.170 in 2008, it was -0.146 in 2009. That is an "improvement" of 0.024. I don't put this at Mike Rosario's feet, clearly he is a talented player and deserves to be named to the All-Rookie Team. And should the Scarlet Knights learn to win next season (or the one after), Rosario can share the rewards (assuming he contributes) consistent with that accomplishment. The 2009 edition of the Rutgers men's basketball team has not shown that it is better than the 2008 edition.

Most overrated home venue -- The RAC at Rutgers. I know a few other bloggers had other overrated venues (the Carrier Dome seemed to draw a lot of attention...), but RAC has not provided any advantage for Rutgers in a long time (5 years?) -- this is not a one (a two) season phenomena. The table I put together to illustrate the point makes a pretty strong case. Those teams have been at the bottom of the conference for a few seasons...

School	W	L	Pct.
DePaul	10	16	0.385
South Florida	8	17	0.308
Rutgers	5	21	0.192

As recently as 2002 the RAC was touted as house of horrors by sports writers. By contrast St. John's, who finished #13 this season, had a 14-12 0.538 home record over the past 3 seasons -- and the Johnnies split their home court between Carnesecca Arena in Queens and Madison Square Garden.

Preview -- Pittsburgh

The Wildcats host the Panthers of Pittsburgh in the last game to be played in the Philadelphia's Spectrum on Wednesday night. The Wildcats-Panthers first played in 1960 (Nova won 76-49), the series promoted to "state rivalry" status when both schools joined the Big East. Villanova holds a 30-27 edge in the series...

Common Opponents, Good Wins, Bad Losses...
The 'Cats and Panthers faced three common opponents so far. All three, St. John's, Louisville and South Florida, are conference mates:

	Nova		Pitt
Opponent	W/L	Diff.	W/L	Diff.
St. John's	W (H)	+19	W (H)	+23
South Florida	W (A)	+9	W (H)	+13
Louisville	L (H)	-1	L (A)	-6

Pittsburgh (Big East, 17-1, 6-1, RPI #2) has had a slew of notably good wins. Their best win was on the road against Georgetown (Big East, 12-6, 3-4, RPI #13), but other notable conference wins include at home win over Syracuse (16-4, 5-3, RPI #16) and a road win against Backyard Brawl rival West Virginia (12-4, 3-3, RPI #18). Notable OOC wins include a home win over Siena (MAAC, 16-5 RPI #20) and a road win over Florida State (ACC, 16-4, RPI #17). Pittsburgh's only loss, the road game versus Louisville (above) is not, given Louisville's RPI #9 & the road venue, is not damaging. Except in the polls...

Lineups, Rotations...
...Coach Jamie Dixon will start, barring exigent circumstances, senior Levance Field (5-10, 190lbs) at the #1, junior transfer Jermaine Dixon (6-3, 190lbs) at the #2, senior Sam Young (6-6, 215lbs) at the #3, junior Tyrell Biggs (6-8, 240lbs) at the #4 and sophomore DeJuan Blair (6-7, 265lbs) at the #5. These five started the Panther's first game (an 86-63 win over Fairleigh Dickenson) and every game since. These five have typically received between 60% and 75% of the playing time during the Panther's OOC schedule, typically above 70% against the more competitive opponents on Pitt's schedule (Akron, Florida St, Texas Tech and Washington State. The average playing time of the five has risen to 72.1% for their Big East slate.

Blair was a co-ROY last season. Young was named to the preseason All Big East Team. Biggs was a well regarded HS prospect out of New Jersey's Don Bosco Prep. Young takes about 32% of the team's shots when he is on the court. Those FGAs can come from inside or outside, though he is a better 2 point shooter than a 3 point shooter. Blair takes 26% of the shots, so expect when the two play together that any shots hoisted will come from either. Biggs is valued for his rebounding, and, though an efficient scorer, functions as the 4th/5th option on offense. When Blair (of the 3 front court players he logs the least amount of time, most likely given his tenddency to foul) or any of the others sits, expect to see redshirt sophomore Gilbert Brown (6-6, 200lbs), senior transfer Gary McGhee (6-10, 255lbs) or freshman Nasir Robinson (6-5, 210lbs) to log some time. If it's Blair, then (unless McGhee comes in...) Biggs plays up a position while Brown or Robinson logs the time.

Fields and Dixon hold down the back court spots. But expect to see sophomore Bradley Wanamaker (6-4, 205lbs), or freshmen guards Travon Woodall (5-11, 190lbs) or Ashton Gibbs (6-2, 190lbs) on the court. Wanamaker, a graduate of Philadelphia's Roman Catholic HS has seen his PT rise to about 50% of the available time over the course of Big East play. Gibbs has appeared in nearly all of the Panther's games this season, providing very efficient (though very occasional) offense.

Dante Cunningham, Antonio Pena, Dwayne Anderson and Scottie Reynolds will start for the Wildcats. The last spot will likely go to junior Reggie Redding, the 5th starter for the South Florida last Saturday and had a pretty good outing. Redding posted a 1.01 PPWS with an eFG% of 55.6, hitting 5 of 9 FGAs. The two Coreys (Fisher or Stokes), along with senior Shane Clark, his wrist still secured in a flexible cast, will definitely see time as well. Cunningham, Pena and Redding all had foul trouble against the Bulls, a troubling trend for all three players, that has developed over the past two games. This game promises to be physical as well, so the staff may again call on senior reserve Frank Tchuisi to put in some time. . Pena logged a strong game on the boards versus the Huskies; the 'Cats will need him to do the same against the Panthers.

By the Numbers, Offense & Defense...
Pitt plays for about 65.7 possessions, ranking it just abit below average (67.1) for D1 teams. Their (adjusted) offensive/defensive rating, 121.9/81.6 (per Ken Pomeroy's Team Page, ranks them among the D1 elites. Their offense is #1, making this a particularly difficult game for the Wildcats. A look at the "numbers underneath" give us an idea of how they do it.

When Pitt has the ball...
				FTA
	eFG%	TO%	OR%	FGA
Panther O	52.5	17.5	43.1	30.8
Wildcat D	44.9	21.9	29.3	37.9

Pitt hits their shots (eFG% at 52.5 is ranked #57), limits their turnovers (ranked #20) and rebounds misses as nearly the best in D1 (ranked #2), which explains how they convert their possessions into points so efficiently. Their one point of vulnerablility appears to be getting to the charity stripe, with a 30.8% rate (they get to the line about 3 times for every 10 FGAs), ranks them a very low #285, but when everything else is hitting on all cylinders, points from the free throw line may not be necessary. About 29% of their FGAs are 3s, but only 1 in 4 of their points comes from made 3s. Their strategy is pretty straightforward, punch the ball inside to either Young or Blair, who will convert or kick out to a wing. Or have Fields penetrate and, depending on where the help comes from, pass it out to the wing or down to the low post. Simple. Stopping them however, is quite a bit trickier. Outside threats include Fields and Wanamaker (most likely by percentage) or Young (by virtue of the fact he is Pitt's 1st scoring option & takes about 1 in 3 of his FGAs from beyond the arc). Expect a battle under the Panther's basket. Nova is performing at a near elite (ranked according to Ken Pomeroy's Scouting Report (#48) level while rebounding their opponent's misses. The "Four Factors" look at Villanova's offense versus Pitt's defense:

When Villanova has the ball...
				FTA
	eFG%	TO%	OR%	FGA
Wildcat O	50.6	18.4	36.3	42.3
Panther D	43.8	21.3	30.9	28.8

Like the Panthers, the Wildcats get their points inside the arc. They rely on the 3 for about 1 in 4 points (like Pitt), but look for points from the line for a bit more of their offensive production than do the Panthers. , ...

Want to Beat the Panthers? Then...
Shooting dominates as a critical factor for both squads. But for Pitt, their ability to limit their turnovers may also be critical. Villanova secondary factors appears to include effectively limiting opponent's second chance points
1. Defend their shooting -- The Panther's eFG% was 42.9 when they lost to Louisville (an ugly affair in which neither team shot particularly well). In 2 other games they shot less than 40%. Their winning margins in those games were +14 (Washington St.) and +8 (Florida St.).
2. Hit your shots -- Nova's record when they have converted at 44.0 or better is 14-2.
3. Force turnovers -- The Panthers worst game for turnovers was their loss to Louisville. When they turn the ball over on 22% or more they are 3-1. Their winning margins, +8 (Florida St.), +27 (Duquesne -- the Dukes had a terrible shooting night & lost over a third of their own possessions) and +14 (Belmont -- an even worse shooting night than Duquesne...).
4. Limit their 2nd chances -- The Panthers rebound about 43.1% of their misses. Nova has not allowed an OR% that high this season. They are 2-3 when they have allowed opponents offensive rebounding to go 34.5% or higher.

Finally...
...The two teams are very similar, though Villanova's numbers suggest it is less proficient at converting possessions to points (and stopping opponents from doing the same). Limiting Blair's effectiveness, while simultaneously containing Young is probably the Wildcat's biggest challenge to date.

According to calculations, this game should go for about 65 possessions, with Pittsburgh taking a 3 point decision. The margin is interesting as it suggests the game may well come down to a single possession. And the Panther's FGM, at 64.8%, is among the worst in D1 (ranked #289). Villanova by contrast, converts at nearly a 75% (I know, that is a spotty performance...), a good contrast if it turns into a free throw shooting contest at the end.

All Big East Teams -- OOC Strong Showings

The Big East preseason All-Big East Team had, as I noted, a few underachievers coming out of the OOC. No doubt they have more than enough time to turn their season around, but there is a long queue of All-Big East players-in-waiting. With three All Big East teams, 11 members each, to fill, one would think the conference would be close to scraping the bottom of the barrel somewhere around the third team. But in the Big East I suspect the arguments will go long and hard over who is and who is not, included.

Pushing for the First Team?...
Should any of the eleven on the preseason first team falter (and there are several early possibilities), one of the five below would most likely step up.

								FTA	FTM
Player	Coll	Pos.	Class	Min%	Shot%	eFG%	PPWS	FGA	FGA
Cunningham	Nova	F	Sr	78.8	34.4	58.0	1.22	41.3	29.4
Dar Tucker	DPU	G/F	So	78.1	33.7	47.1	1.04	42.2	30.5
DeJuan Blair	Pitt	F	So	59.8	32.9	63.3	1.25	39.4	22.0
Jeremy Hazell	SHU	G	So	84.9	31.8	54.4	1.18	38.9	30.6
Mac Koshwal	DPU	F/C	So	69.6	29.3	59.8	1.20	55.7	32.0

Data has been sorted by Shot% (percentage of shots taken by the player when he is on the court), as an indication of the role each plays with respect to his team's offense. Note that all of the players (with the exception of Blair) are getting 70% or more of the playing time, so the pattern of the offense is set with respect to each player's role. how heavily the team relies on the individual's contribution. Four were on the All Rookie Team last season, it is good to see they continue to develop.

A Few Words...
Dante Cunningham...has improved with each season. On a team noted for guards and an offensive scheme that looks for offense to originate out of the back court, Cunningham has worked himself into the offensive scheme, often as the 1st or 2nd scoring option. He most likely will miss out on First Team honors, because Scottie Reynolds made the preseason First Team (& will provide enough offense and leadership for the Wildcats to make the post season First Team) and the voters might be reluctant to place two from the same squad on the First Team, unless of course that team dominates the conference play. See Notre Dame (Harangody & McAlarney) last season.
Dar Tucker & Mac Koshwal...see Cunningham/Reynolds. The stronger of the two candidates is probably Tucker. A poor finish by DePaul may actually help Tucker as the voters seem to prefer a Noah's Ark-type (one of each...) team, and will most likely be on the lookout for outstanding players among the bottom finishing teams. Tucker has a number of very strong games on his resume coming out of December (as noted in a previous post). So second team seems pretty much assured (pending continued progress), and a move up the to the First Team is not out of the question. Koshwal has also put together a number of impressive outings, a recent outing, versus Notre Dame's Luke Harangody in DePaul's first conference game (a 92-82 loss) included 26 points and 11 rebounds in 36 minutes of play, serves as a good example.
Jeremy Hazell...has put together a number of very good games. The Hall's last OOC game (versus Fairleigh Dickenson University) saw Hazell post 35 points (6 rebounds, 2 steals) in 38 minutes of play. Think the competition was too easy? In his first two Big East games (versus Syracuse and West Virginia) Hazell posted 23 and 29 points respectively. Like Tucker, Seton Hall's finish may work to Hazell's advantage.
DeJuan Blair...continues to be a strong contributor to the Panther's offense and defense. Blair is productive on a team of very productive players (Sam Young, Levance Fields). His positive disposition combined with his unconventional dimensions, make him a quirky, but easy-to-like choice for conference honors.

All Big East Teams, Returning Players, Lists on my Mind

A recent listing endeavor brought me back to the whole idea of lists & ranks. This seems to be The Summer of Lists and Ranks, whether Mike Miller's Greatest Programs List over at the Beyond the Arc Blog, ESPN's Elite Programs 1985-2008 List, Joel Welser's annual preview "144 Teams in 144 Days" over at College Hoops Net (CHN) or doctordunk's efforts over at Cards Hoops Blog. So how does one decide which (or who) is the "best" program/player/team of 2008/the 1990s/all time? One of the reasons I like the NCAA tournament (and D1 basketball for that matter) is the way the annual champion is decided -- on the court. You might complain about the circumstances of the decision (referees, the time keeper, the decals covering the court -- indeed even the surface of the court -- the view from your seat, the arena amenities...), but not the decision itself. The decision stands, you accept it and move on to the next game, the next season.

But what about players? How does one decide who ought to be the Player of the Year (POY) or Rookie of the Year (ROY)? For an individual it seems the Potter Stewart Test will suffice most times. Unless it is 2008, in the Big East, with the question pending "Who was the best Rookie?" -- then you make Dominique Jones and DeJuan Blair share it.

I have already looked at the Rookie Team from last season (and offered another Six or so rising Freshman To Watch), another group of players to look at is the All Big East Teams from last season. Of the 26 players (a POY plus 10 1^st Team members, 10 2^nd Team members and 5 Honorable Mentions) honored, fully 18, including the POY, Luke Harangody of Notre Dame, are returning to play next in the 2009-10 season. Data for the players, largely gleaned from Ken Pomeroy's information base, is presented in three tables, each ordered by %Poss (declining).

Name	Coll	Yr	Team	Pos	%Min	%Poss	%Shot
*Harangody	NDU	So.	1st	#5	72.3	32.9	35.6
McNeal	Marq	Jr.	2nd	#2	74.9	27.5	27.8
Vaughn	Nati	So.	1st	#2	82.9	27.3	27.6
Mason	John’s	Jr.	HM	#4	55.5	26.9	30.8
Young	Pitt	Jr.	1st	#4	79.7	26.7	29.0
Reynolds	Nova	So.	2nd	#1/#2	81.4	25.1	24.3
James	Marq	Jr.	2nd	#1/#2	75.2	24.9	25.5
Blair	Pitt	Fr.	HM	#5	64.6	24.4	22.2
Jones	USF	Fr.	HM	#2	87.1	24.0	25.9
*Price	UConn	Jr.	1st	#1/#2	79.7	23.9	24.4
Hayward	Marq	So.	2nd	#4	63.0	23.6	25.4
Adrien	UConn	Jr.	1st	#4	83.8	23.4	21.9
Harris	Cuse	So.	2nd	#3	90.0	22.1	18.4
Flynn	Cuse	Fr.	HM	#1	88.5	21.7	22.7
Williams	Ville	Jr.	2nd	#2/#3	89.5	21.1	19.7
McDermott	PC	Jr.	HM	#4	86.6	20.9	15.1
McAlarney	NDU	Jr.	1st	#2	88.9	18.4	21.4
Thabeet	UConn	So.	2nd	#5	77.0	16.1	13.1

All stats explained on possession-based posts on the left of the page. Click on school to link to Ken Pomeroy's Scout Report for that team. Note that Harangody and AJ Price (asterisked) were 2 of the 4 unanimous selections to the 1^st Team. If these players were crucial to their respective team's success last season it seems logical to consider the function they played with respect to their team's offense & possessions. Harangody's presence as the first player listed is consistent with his role on the Fighting Irish squad. While playing about 70% of the available time at the #5, he accounted for 35% of Notes Dame's possessions and 3.5 of every 10 FGAs the Irish took (when he was in the game). Those are definitely MVP-level numbers. Even in this group of Big East All Stars those are "head of the class" numbers. If %Min, %Poss and %Shot give us a sense of the individual's role with respect to the team, how to explain Hasheem Thabeet of Connecticut? He functioned as a role player (4^th, maybe 5^th option on offense) for the Husky offense -- compare his %Poss & %Shot percentages to teammates AJ Price and Jeff Adrien above (yellow highlight) -- note that Price and Adrien between them took just under half of the possessions (47%) and shots (46%) when they were on the floor together. Put a third player who consumes possessions & shots at about Price and Adrien's rate (Robinson? Dyson? Wiggins?) and Thabeet is pretty much reduced to setting screens and grabbing misses. %Poss and %Shot reflect a bit about the quantity of the individual's role on offense (and a little bit about transition of defense to offense...), but say little about efficiency on offense, and nothing at all about defense. Wondering about Thabeet? Patience. Along the same lines as Thabeet, Adrien and Price, consider also Kyle McAlarney and the aforementioned Luke Harangody (green highlight). Like the Husky players, McAlarney and Harangody split quite a few of the possessions and shots when they are on the court together, though the ratio of touches decidedly favored Harangody. I suspect McAlarney got a few more shots when Harangody rested on the bench.

Name	ORtg	eFG%	PPWS	FTRate	ARate
*Harangody	110.2	50.3	1.10	38.2	13.7
McNeal	104.4	49.7	1.05	30.2	24.9
Vaughn	109.5	55.5	1.18	31.4	30.9
Mason	95.3	48.7	1.01	19.4	20.2
Young	110.1	54.7	1.14	33.3	8.3
Reynolds	105.6	51.1	1.14	47.7	20.8
James	104.7	45.5	0.98	33.6	28.6
Blair	109.2	53.7	1.12	47.6	7.3
Jones	111.3	53.0	1.15	42.1	18.1
*Price	114.4	50.8	1.10	38.8	36.1
Hayward	109.8	53.6	1.17	35.7	4.9
Adrien	101.2	50.4	1.11	66.4	7.6
Harris	105.0	48.5	1.11	69.1	15.9
Flynn	112.9	52.6	1.13	34.1	26.8
Williams	98.0	48.0	0.99	29.6	23.4
McDermott	99.4	50.9	1.08	54.5	25.7
McAlarney	115.0	57.7	1.20	17.5	17.8
Thabeet	115.3	60.3	1.28	89.4	2.2

The table above shows the offensive rating (ORtg), shooting efficiency (eFG%), scoring efficiency (PPWS), ability to get to the line (FTRate) and assists per 100 possessions (ARate -- tendency to involve teammates?). When offensive efficiency is factored in, the value added by Thabeet and McAlarney becomes more obvious. They may not have scored as prolifically as their respective teammates, but each took advantage of the opportunities presented. And each in his own way (McAlarney on the outside, Thabeet on the inside) made their opponent's defense work that much harder.

Now factor in the defensive elements...

Name	OR%	DR%	TO%	%Blk	%Stls
*Harangody	13.3	24.2	13.5	2.8	1.5
McNeal	6.0	12.4	19.5	1.5	4.2
Vaughn	1.7	8.7	21.1	0.2	1.8
Mason	5.2	11.8	19.6	1.2	2.0
Young	7.7	14.5	16.5	3.8	2.1
Reynolds	1.7	9.6	21.5	0.1	2.6
James	3.3	6.7	16.5	0.8	3.4
Blair	16.6	23.2	18.2	4.6	3.9
Jones	4.5	10.0	16.0	0.8	2.6
*Price	2.7	8.3	17.5	0.3	2.3
Hayward	8.4	20.8	17.4	1.6	2.5
Adrien	8.9	18.4	19.4	3.3	0.8
Harris	8.9	15.2	22.8	2.3	2.5
Flynn	2.0	6.0	19.1	0.5	2.3
Williams	4.6	17.5	22.8	2.3	2.2
McDermott	7.4	19.8	28.5	3.6	2.5
McAlarney	0.7	5.1	17.1	0.1	1.2
Thabeet	10.9	15.2	20.0	12.9	0.5

And what of Harangody's honor? Clearly deserved as the guy was, in addition to the offense he generated, a monster around the basket. Those rebounding numbers are Top 100 caliber. I was also impressed with his assist rate (ARate, second table). Compare it not to the guards, but the front court players. Having pulled down the offensive board, Harangody was far more inclined than (about twice as likely...) Adrien, Blair or Young, and (about three time as likely...) Hayward, to pass the ball to a teammate for an open shot. Early off season enthusiasm over Connecticut's prospects next season are, Price's successful rehabilitation notwithstanding, well founded. Thabeet, assuming he can carve out a larger role in the offense while maintaining his Hibbert-like efficiency, will easily find himself in the lottery next June. With Wiggins transfer and Stanley Robinson engaged in a one year (academic) rehabilitation of his own, there are possessions and shots available. Thabeet will have to take them as they come.

Scottie Reynold's number show he belongs in this group. Scottie was honored as the ROY in 2007, and a few Nova Nation members wondered if his efficiency was more time and place rather than skill and ability. If there is any disappointment in his numbers, it is in the lack of progress on efficiency. Scottie's ORtg last season was, despite the slight decline in %Poss and %Shot, about the same as 2007. Consider the relatively high turnover rate (TO% -- 21.5) and relatively low (for a guard...) ARate (20.8) as areas for improvement next season.

Caveats, trivia, errata...
1. The other 2 players voted unanimously to the 1^st team were Roy Hibbert of Georgetown and David Padgett of Louisville, the often injured, but very skilled Cardinal center.
2. Syracuse freshman Donte Greene, the preseason co-favorite (along with teammate Jonny Flynn) for ROY was voted to the All Big East 2^nd Team, while co-winners of the ROY award, Dominique Jones of South Florida and DeJuan Blair of Pittsburgh were All Big East Honorable Mentions. Strange.

Big East Freshmen: The 2008 All-Rookie Team

Why would I want to revisit last season's rookies so far removed from last season...well a few of these ten (minus Donta Greene -- departed for the NBA) will be team leaders next season. But even those returning to "well stocked" teams will be expected to show progress over their freshman production. I put together 2 tables, the first looks at possession-based offensive numbers (Poss%, Shot%, ORtg, eFG% and FTRate), along with PPWS, a stat thats gives us an idea of how effective a player is once he gets his shot off. Besides, these were, in the opinion of the press and conference coaches, the eleven best freshmen in the conference, and I was curiuous to see if the numbers supported those opinions.

Player	Coll	%Min	ORtg	%Poss	%Shot	eFG%	PPWS	FTRate
Greene	Cuse	89.2	105.4	23.2	28.2	50.5	1.07	25.5
Flynn	Cuse	88.5	112.9	21.7	22.7	52.6	1.13	34.1
Jones	USF	87.1	111.3	24.0	25.9	53.0	1.15	42.1
Burrell	SJU	78.5	84.4	22.5	23.0	42.9	0.95	33.3
Koshwal	DPU	78.0	101.2	20.3	18.2	50.0	1.05	43.1
Hazell	Hall	67.0	111.7	20.4	24.6	51.1	1.09	28.1
Blair	Pitt	64.6	109.2	24.4	22.2	53.7	1.12	47.6
Freeman	GTown	63.5	115.0	18.4	20.2	60.3	1.25	21.9
Tucker	DPU	56.8	107.4	28.1	31.7	51.1	1.07	28.0
Chandler	RU	54.7	87.6	31.3	31.6	46.6	0.96	34.1
Fisher	Nova	53.1	94.1	25.5	27.5	42.3	0.93	26.9

Statistics were drawn from Ken Pomeroy's web site, the last update (usually the April 7 version) of each team's "Scouting Report" Page. Click on the College beside any player to scroll to his college's Scouting Report.

The players are ordered by playing time (percentage of available minutes they actually played). While playing times may have varied greatly, note that possessions and shots (ie role within their respective team's offense...) showed a good deal less variaton. Virtually everyone of them was a first (Chandler, Tucker), second or third option on offense. Austin Freeman's possessions may seem light compared to the others, but consider that Georgetown had a very balanced offense last season -- Freeman's Poss% and Shot% numbers were almost identical to senior Jon Wallace's numbers. Compared to the 2007 All Big East Rookie Team, the 2008 edition seemed a bit less efficient offensively as well. Of the three whose ORtgs were <100, Rutgers' Corey Chandler and St. John's Justin Burrell seemed conspicuously out of place -- I cannot recall finding a player on an All conference team with an ORtg < 90. Consider the circumstances of each however. St. John's, like Rutgers a "scoring challenged" team in 2007, lost a good deal of it's scoring punch in the off season with graduations and transfers. Going into the season with a class of 7 freshmen to fill out the roster around a couple of upper classmen, the Johnnies found themselves starting the season without their best returning scorer, Anthony Mason Jr. Li'l Mase ended up missing a total of eight games over the course of the season, and Burrell, the most heralded of the incoming class, shouldered a good deal of the scoring burden, quite possibly more than he may have taken on had Mason been healthy in November. Burrell, who finished the season as the Johnnies high scorer, drew a good deal of attention from opposing defenses throughout the season. Corey Chandler of Rutgers faced a similar situation going into the season. Though no significant contributor on the Scarlet Knight's roster was injured, there was actually no "significant contributor" on the roster in the first place. Rutgers, lacking a go-to guy since Quincy Douby entered the NBA draft early in the 2007 off season, had limped through Coach Fred Hill Jr's inaugural season with a team offense (ORtg) ranked at #291 out of 336 in 2006-07. Forward JR Inman took more shots and scored more points, but Chandler, despite missing 3 games near the mid-point of the Big East regular season, drew a good deal of attention from the defenses. He was very capable of having a big night, as many Wildcat fans know all too well.

I grouped the rebounding and some of the defensive stat together for the table below. Anyone having trouble understanind why Mac Koshwal was on the Rookie Team need look no farther than his OR% and DR% for an answer...

Player	Coll	OR%	DR%	%Blk	%Stl
Donte Greene	Cuse	5.5	15.7	4.8	2.0
Jonny Flynn	Cuse	2.0	6.0	0.5	2.3
Dominique Jones	USF	4.5	10.0	0.8	2.6
Justin Burrell	SJU	6.6	15.8	2.4	0.8
Mac Koshwal	DPU	12.0	18.0	2.2	2.3
Jeremy Hazell	Hall	3.1	6.2	0.6	2.9
DeJuan Blair	Pitt	16.6	23.2	4.6	3.9
Austin Freeman	GTown	4.9	8.7	0.3	2.1
Dar Tucker	DPU	8.7	14.1	0.9	2.4
Corey Chandler	RU	6.2	9.5	1.9	3.9
Corey Fisher	Nova	1.6	8.0	0.0	2.8

Co-ROY Dominique Jones may have put up some gaudy numbers for the Bull's offense, but a look at the rebounding numbers for DeJuan Blair of Pittsburgh more than explains why he shared the ROY honors with Jones. DeJuan's OR% and DR% are Top 100 (#6 and #59 respectively), surprising when I realized he was also Top 500 offensively (ORtg). I confess when I first reviewed Blair's dimensions I doubted he would be tall enough and mobile enough to compete in the Big East. He proved to be both. No wonder Cassiem Diggs transferred out after a single season.

The Good Surprises...
DeJuan Blair & Dominique Jones (am I starting to sound like a broken record?). Blair may have had a local reputation coming into Pittsburgh, but he was under appreciated by media and fans nationally. His coming out party at Madison Square Garden, complements of Duke, was marred only by the season-long loss of Mike Cook. Blair went on to share ROY honors with South Florida's Dominique Jones. Something of a practice phenom, Jones got the starting nod over better known redshirt freshman Dante Curry and veteran Solomon Bozeman (both of whom subsequently transferred...) and scored 13 points in his first outing. Near the end of the Bull's out of confernce schedule Jones had a 3 game scoring jag of 30, 30 and 25 against Central Florida, Richmond and Alabama-Birmingham, respectively. That got everyone's attention. Jones went on to score 20 or more points, including a career high 31 against Seton Hall, during his inaugural Big East season. Accomplihsments may pale when measured against Blair and Jones, but Seton Hall's Jeremy Hazell was, for me at least, another pleasant surprise. I had expected Nutter and Laing, along with Harvey, to provide the offensive punch for the Pirates this past season. While the Seton Hall back court seemed crowded (and talented), Hazell proved there is always room on Coach Gonzalez's roster for a scorer.

The Bad Surprises...
While virtually no one tabbed McDonald's All American and Villanova freshman Corey Stokes as the preseason ROY (ok, maybe I did...), not making the All big East Rookie Team was a letdown. Despite some strong exhibition outings, as the season started, the freshman struggled to find his spot in the offense. Stokes adjusted, he learned to play Villanova Defense and began to come on at the season's end. Georgetown's Chris Wright, a very heavily recruited point out of DC, was injured just before the beginning of the Big East regular season and despite a series of post season appearances, ultimately appeared in less than ½ of the Hoyas games, logging < 300 minutes total. Despite some promising numbers (56.4 eFG%, 1.12 PPWS), Wright had virtually no impact on the team and the games he appeared in.

No Surprise (thankfully)...
Mac Koshwal and Dar Tucker, both out of DePaul, were as good as advertised. Unfortunately aside from senior Draelon Burns, the balance of Demons team was worse than advertised. As disappointing (maddenly inconsistent) as the 2007-08 Demons were Burns, Koshwal and Tucker were not. And that kept a season that was extremely disappointing and frustrating from becoming far, far, far worse. Though Syracuse's Jonny Flynn did not, as predicted by the preseason prognosticators, take share the ROY award with teammate Donte Greene, he was every bit as good as most thought he would be. And he will be back in 2008-09.

Vinny Pezzimenti Moment -- Week 17

Villanova closed out the regular season winning games they had to win -- last Tuesday against South Florida and then on the road at Providence to put the Friars onto "The Big East Tournament Bubble" DePaul's loss to Pitt Sunday afternoon put the Friars back into the BET field. At this point it appears that the Wildcats will face the Orange again, this time on the floor at Madison Square Garden. This will make for an interesting symmetry for the season. Nova and Cuse have played mirror games (each winning on the other's home court), so it is fitting I guess that these two, blessed with much heralded freshmen classes, projected in the preseason to be Top 25 teams, but now on the bubble (stuff happens...) will meet for the rubber game that will most likely knock the loser off the bubble and into the NIT. Another season in the Big East...

The composite results can be found over at the New Big East Report, filed under "Power Poll (3/10/08)". My ballot for the Big East Blogger Poll this week:

1 - Georgetown
2 - Louisville
3 - Notre Dame
4 - Connecticut
5 - Marquette
6 - West Virginia
7 - Pittsburgh
8 - Villanova
9 - Syracuse
10 - Cincinnati
11 - Seton Hall
12 - Providence
13 - DePaul
14 - St. John's
15 - South Florida
16 - Rutgers

Who's Up...Who's Down...
Georgetown and Louisville met for their close out game. The Hoyas won and are rewarded with the regular season championship and the #1 seed in New York City. The Hoyas have been playing pretty good basketball after their mid-season funk. As for the next the rest, I have arranged them pretty much according to their seeds for the tournament. The schedule may not be completely balanced, but it is a good deal more balanced than the years going back to the last expansion. Going with the seed order meant I had to swap Pittsburgh and West Virginia (yet again). I know this is inconsistent with the result of their last head-to-head (earlier in the week no less...) but consistent with their finish in the conference. Levance Fields, despite being back, has to "recondition" on the fly, a difficult proposition at best, and along with the pressure on freshman DeJaun Blair, maybe responsible with the inconsistent Panther play down the stretch. Ugly road losses at Marquette, Notre Dame (who other than the Irish has not played ugly in South Bend this winter?) and West Virginia have marred an otherwise respectable (but not, since December anyway, especially remarkable) resume. Cincinnati is another team that has struggled through the last 2+ weeks of the season. The Bearcats have lost the last four games, their 45 point collapse in the delayed game Sunday had to be, for Mick Cronin and the Bearcat faithful, a very disappointing conclusion to a season that started with a road win in Louisville. I moved them down to the #10 spot, and moved Villanova and Syracuse up one to fill the gap. A 2 point win over cross-state rival Seton Hall that had Coach Fred Hill pumping his fist and openly celebrating in the face of Bobby Gonzalez, the Pirate coach notwithstanding, I left Rutgers holding down the #16 spot. The Scarlet Knights' RPI has been South of 200 for much of the season, climbing into the 170s only in the past week and a half. There is obviously separation between them and #15 South Florida. The on-the-court antics of Pirate HC Bobby Gonzalez and Scarlet Knights HC Fred Hill were apparently outrageous enough to draw several scathing pieces from New Jersey newspaper sports columnists, including the Star Ledger's Steve Politi and the The Record's John Rowe. The Courier News' Jerry Carino also alluded to the antics in his 3/9/08 blog entry, "Shot to the Heart", but more illuminating possibly, are the fan comments at the end of his piece.

This week's OWs...
I was impressed with Joe Alexander's 61 point scoring outburst over the past week's 2 games. That the 'Eers went 2-0 over the span was not a drawback at all. Alexander scored 32 points (10-16, 0-1, 12-15) against Pittsburgh on Monday night and then came back to socre another 29 against the Johnnies (8-19, 0-1, 13-15) Saturday night. His PPWS (1.36 & 1.11) was above his season average in both games. His eFG (62.5 & 42.1) may have been down for the NYC game, but it was tempered by his double-double (10 rebounds). My ROW is an old reliable, DeJuan Blair of Pittsburgh. Blair.