Rising Seniors -- Eight to Watch

What I Am Looking For
Last March's "All-Big East'rs" Ashton Gibbs, Darius Odom-Johnson and Kris Joseph won't make this list. Neither will Kevin Jones or Tim Abromaitis. Everybody knows them, and everyone will have them on their "Best in" or "Top" list in the next two and a half months. The Big East coaches and AP writers will vote them to a variety of "All" preseason teams. They have already been a bullet on ESPN's "Keys to the Game" pre-game analysis, and will probably continue their bullet status this season. They made their marks during their freshmen or sophomore or junior seasons. Those "name" guys decided to come back and most will reap the rewards of returning to finish their education and eligibility. But every season a Hilton Armstrong, or an Andy Rautins, a Jon Wallace or a Dante Cunningham lands in the national press (and picks up a post season Big East award or two) seemingly out of nowhere. Invisible to many except their team's fans, these seniors tend to start somewhere back in that freshman pack, or labor in the vinyards of a low ranking team, but unlike their classmates, they (and their team?) improve quietly every season. By Pomeroy's classification system they may start as a "Role", "Limited Role" or even "Invisible" player, and grow into a "Major" player or "Go-to Guy" over the course of their four years. Pomeroy discusses growth "probabilities" in "Putting Individual Efficiency into Perspective" over at The Basketball Prospectus in 2007. These guys tend to push at the upper limit of their growth curve each season. The Jon Wallaces and Orinze Onuakus -- are drawing a good share of the minutes at their position going into their senior seasons and they are drawing somewhere between 18% - 20% of the possessions when they are on the floor. They may lurk off the MSM's radar, but their coaches and teammates know who they are, look for them on the floor...and trust them with the ball.

			On Offense...
Player	School	%Min	ORtg	%Poss	%Shot	PPWS
Jae Crowder	MU	68.8	120.1	19.8	22.6	1.13
Dion Dixon	'Nati	66.8	112.7	22.4	24.6	1.08
Chris Smith	'Ville	63.8	110.0	19.7	18.9	1.12
Yancy Gates	'Nati	67.2	108.8	22.9	24.3	1.07
Jason Clark	GTown	76.1	107.4	20.5	22.1	1.20
Nasir Robinson	Pitt	54.8	103.5	21.9	20.5	1.10
Scott Martin	NDU	73.0	101.0	18.5	20.1	1.03
Jordan Theodore	Hall	75.0	98.6	22.8	20.3	1.05

Dion Dixon fits the profile, each season (except for Lance Stevenson's single year in the Queen City...) his role with the Bearcats has grown. Securing 22.4% of the possessions and just under a quarter of the shots last season should have put Dixon on an "All" team if not for a slew of seniors (with better name recognition?) ahead of him in line. And also a Bearcat or two who drew conference and media attention. For Cincinnati to rub shoulders with the conference elites (seeds #1-#4) in 2012, Dixon and Gates (and rising sophomre Sean Kirkpatrick along with a few others...) will have to have very good seasons. And while we are in southeastern Ohio, Yancy Gates is another name that will appear on a preseason list or two. Gates, whose self-made demons held him back for a couple of seasons made significant strides last season. This time around the forward/center should do even better. vbtn is firmly in the pro-Gates Line this preseason. Marquette's Jae Crowder is another Buzz Williams JUCO/transfer the fourth year coach has a habit of pulling out of thin air (or so it seems). Two seasons of conference play may not be enough to turn heads among the conference's large media following, but every one of Marquette's conference opponents know they will have to account for him in their gameplans. Given Coach Pitino's penchant for stockpiling players are certain positions, Chris Smith has been victimized a bit by competition with rising junior Mike Mara and fellow rising senior Kyle Kuric. If Smith, whose shot and possession rates (Shot% & Poss%) are on the high side of "role player" will probably need more playing time and opportunities to score to grow into a major contributor or significant contributor level player. Preston Knowles is gone, but freshman Wayne Blackshear will press him for playing time at the #2. .

			Four Factors...
						FTA
Player	School	%Min	eFG%	OR%	TO%	FGA
Jae Crowder	MU	68.8	54.9	9.5	8.6	38.3
Dion Dixon	'Nati	66.8	49.1	5.1	13.0	38.4
Chris Smith	'Ville	63.8	53.4	6.7	18.9	33.6
Yancy Gates	'Nati	67.2	51.7	9.3	12.7	42.0
Jason Clark	GTown	76.1	57.2	4.7	21.0	25.9
Nasir Robinson	Pitt	54.8	54.8	9.5	19.8	54.3
Scott Martin	NDU	73.0	49.1	4.0	16.8	32.0
Jordan Theodore	Hall	75.0	47.5	2.6	22.4	33.6

An offensive rebounding rate of 9.3 and higher is a Top 500 ranking per Ken Pomeroy -- Gates, Crowder and Pittusburgh's small forward Nasir Robinsin are reasons their teams rank in the upper half of the conference for rebounding. Robinson's offensive rating is hurt by his turnovers (and lack of playing time due to an absent three point shot?) a byproduct of his close-to-the-basket play, but with more mobile front court mates and versatile forwards, Robinson should see more time this season. Crowder's and Gate's lack of turnovers, despite their play in the front court is encouraging, especially when considered with their offensive rebounding, each presents some strong scoring opportunities for their teams. For Jordan Theodore to garner more favorable recognition in the conference, he will need to dampen his turnover rate, as will Georgetown wing Jason Clark, whose outstanding shot efficiency (eFG% -- 57.2%) is tempered by his tendency to lose the ball.

		Miscellaneous...
Player	School	Ast%	DR%	Blk%	Stl%
Jae Crowder	MU	11.4	18.7	3.3	2.7
Dion Dixon	'Nati	15.0	8.3	0.1	2.4
Chris Smith	'Ville	18.0	13.3	0.4	2.0
Yancy Gates	'Nati	10.3	21.1	5.1	1.8
Jason Clark	GTown	11.7	11.2	0.7	2.9
Nasir Robinson	Pitt	10.5	13.7	0.4	1.2
Scott Martin	NDU	12.2	13.8	1.0	1.0
Jordan Theodore	Hall	30.4	8.6	0.2	2.5

Scott Martin had to sit a year as a Purdue transfer. The rising senior suffered an injury on the eve of the 2010 season, and came into 2011 off of a two year layover. Though he was rusty last season, as his rebounding suggested, and fitting into a rotation that had Ben Hansbrough and Tim Abromaitis available offensively no doubt limited his scoring oppportunities, Scott has another year to condition and as Hansbrough has graduated, should see a larger role in Notre Dame's offense. Theordore's assist rate is impressive and his defensive rebounding rate is not too shabby for a point guard. Now if he can get the turnovers under control and improve his shooting, the Hall will benefit immensely in conference play.

Hits & Misses...Last Year's List
Marshon Brooks exploded offensively and became one of the few bright spots (along with a win over Villanova...) in Providence's otherwise lackluster season. Brooks was named to the All-Big East First Team, along with "vbtn Watch List" mate Dwight Hardy from St. John's (who also took home the Big East's "Most Improved Player" award). Most of the Johnnies' limelight however, shone on "vbtn Watch List" member DJ Kennedy, who hit a runner at the buzzer against Pittsburgh in the Garden that put St. John's back into the Top 25 (and sealed their invitation to the Dance?). A season-ending injury three weeks later sidelined Kennedy and took a bit of wind out of the Red Storm. Rick Jackson and Brad Wannamaker made the All-Big East Second Team, with Jackson earning the "Defensive Player" award and Wannamaker honored with the conference's "Sportsmanship" award. Though Chris Wright was named to the All-Big East Third Team, the Hoyas' season sputtered at the end, giving Wright no opportunities for heriocs. The same can be said for Villanova's Antonio Pena, also named to the "vbtn Watch List". Though the bfc started the entire season, the Wildcats looked in vain for low post offense when their perimeter players were slowed (or sidelined) with nicks and dents. The Wildcats were trapped in a death spiral as the regular season slipped into the post season. Scoop Jardine decided to take all of his eligibility and return for a fifth year. Gilbert Brown had a decent season, though he did not have the breakthrough that fans predicted each of the four seasons he spent with the Panthers. Caught covering Butler's Shawn Vanzant late in their second round game, Brown could not prevent Vanzant's pass to Adam Smith whose bucket put Butler up for good, and sent Pittsburgh home in the first weekend.

2010-11 Preview -- Notre Dame Fighting Irish

Too Busy for the Details?
The Irish might be the most volatile program in the conference, since 2006 Notre Dame has finished #12, #4, #3, #10 and #7. Luke Harangody and Tory Jackson have moved on, and the modest uptick of 2010 over 2009 may not be sustainable. A lot depends on the 2010 bench players, rehabbed Scott Martin and an influx of freshmen back court players. Lots of questions, not many answers.  Prognosis -- A 3rd quartile finish.

3 Years At a Glance

	Returning...
	2011	2010	2009
%Min	59.2	47.0	84.8
%Pts	62.4	22.3	83.5
%FGM	55.8	55.7	85.3
%3FGM	66.7	19.7	84.7
%OReb	68.1	67.2	81.9
%DReb	59.8	59.2	79.5
%TReb	62.3	61.6	80.2

Returning minutes may be just below the conference-wide average, but the Irish do return 62.4% of their points (surprising perhaps given Harangody's role in the offense), higher than the conference average (58.9%). That from the #4 ranked (for points scored) team has to be cause for hope among the Notre Dame fan-base. Defensive rebounding rates, a strength for Notre Dame for the past three or so seasons, is just below the conference-wide average of 60.9%.

	According to Pomeroy...
	2009-10		2008-09		2007-08
	#	Rank	#	Rank	#	Rank
BE Off Eff.	113.5	1	108.2	5	110.1	2
BE Def Eff	109.7	13	108.1	13	103.6	10
BE Def eFG%	50.2	T11	49.2	9	48.0	4
BE D TOv%	14.9	16	12.9	16	15.5	15
BE Def Reb%	68.4	2	68.6	3	67.2	2
BE Def FTR	32.7	5	31.4	7	23.4	1

Notre Dames defense consistently ranks in the bottom third (or quarter) of the conference, which leaves their elite offense (consistently ranked in or near the top quarter of the conference) with little margin for error. Compare their efficiency numbers (conference games only, above) for 2008-09 with the seasons before and after. Count on Notre Dame ranking #6 or higher in conference offense. The question is where will the Irish defense come from. While lack of fouling is generally considered "good", note that Notre Dame also ranks at the bottom of the conference in forcing turnovers. That combination strongly suggests a passive defense with little on-the-ball defense. Should Coach Brey get no more than a #13 or #14 ranked defense from the South Benders, a step back on offense would be fatal.

	For the Record...
	2009-10			2008-09			2007-08
	W	L	Pct.	W	L	Pct.	W	L	Pct.
Overall	23	12	0.657	21	15	0.583	25	8	0.758
Big East	10	8	0.556	8	10	0.444	14	4	0.778
Post Season?	NCAA Rnd #1			NIT Rnd #4			NCAA Rnd #2

Notre Dames Nucleus
Coach Brey used a seven man rotation in 2010 that included three seniors (Harangody, Jackson and Jon Peoples) and a transfer. Although his freshmen class numbered four deep and featured three front court players, the Coach did not get much play out of that contingent last season. The first 2010 freshman off the bench, Jack Cooley (a 6-9 244 pound forward), logged only 111 minutes, or about 7% of the available playing time. Even during Harangody's four game absence Cooley's playing time tripled, to about 22% of the available minutes, but was still low enough to suggest the staff favored senior Jon Peoples and junior Tyrone Nash and others with most of Harangody's playing time.

On Offense
Player	Min%	Ortg	Poss%	Shot%	eFG%	OR%	PPWS	FTR%
Tim Abromaitis	78.0	127.8	21.2	24.3	60.4	4.8	1.30	36.2
Ben Hansbrough	87.7	119.8	18.2	16.6	57.2	2.9	1.21	45.4
Tyrone Nash	65.2	111.6	18.1	13.9	54.2	10.5	1.13	75.1
Carleton Scott	45.3	114.0	15.1	15.6	56.2	8.6	1.16	15.2

The remaining four of Notre Dame's seven man rotation contain only Tim Abromaitis as a "Significant Contributor" option on offense (possession rate, "p", 19.9% < p < 25%). Look for Ben Hansbrough, the 6-3 wing transfer from Mississippi, to see his role grow in the offense, as either part of the wing rotation that will include senior Carleton Scott and rehabilitated (hopefully) Scott Martin, a Purdue transfer who tore his ACL in the 2010 preseason, or in the back court as the point guard. 6-5 sophomore Joey Brooks will compete with an entering freshman or two for some minutes on the wing as well.

On Defense
Player	Min%	DR%	Ast%	TO%	Stl%	Blk%
Tim Abromaitis	78.0	12.8	9.8	11.1	1.1	1.0
Ben Hansbrough	87.7	9.9	22.6	17.3	1.9	0.4
Tyrone Nash	65.2	13.0	11.7	17.8	1.8	1.6
Carleton Scott	45.3	20.1	10.6	18.5	6.1	1.6

Look for the front court rotation to include graduate student Tim Abromaitis, who returns to complete his eligibility, to team with senior Tyrone Nash, and most likely, sophomore Jack Cooley. Cooley and Nash are the two best returning rebounders available. Should the staff want to go deeper, sophomore Tom Knight, a 6-9 251 pound bfc, will be available.

Significant Additions
If 2010 was the year of the front court recruit, the 2011 entering contingent is heavy with back court recruits, and none too soon, given Tory Jackson's graduation. While 6-4 wing Jerian Grant, out of De Matha HS in Washington DC may be the best regarded among the entering guard contingent, 6-1, 170 pount Eric Atkins will, as the presumed heir to Tory Jackson's role at the point, most likely see court time before Grant. Alex Dragcevich, another 6-6 wing (Coach Brey likes to collect wings...) may see PT if he makes progress.

Atkins is a penetrator who can either finish or draw and kick to the perimeter. Coach Brey will most likely experiment early with a line-up that starts both Hansbrough (who has some point skills himself) alongside Atkins in an offensive scheme that could use both interchangably. Atkins and Hansbrough, along with wings Scott & Abromaitis, with Nash in the paint, will most likely be the starting line-up early. Filling out the rotation, Cooley, Martin, Grant will most likely emerge with consistent minutes, with Brooks, Knight, sophomore Mike Broghammer, senior Tom Kopko and Dragicevich getting the call to clean up.

Explode If...
Believing Coach Brey will embrace a defense-first philosophy is out of the question, but ND's performance in the Mike Brey Era has consistently shined when the squad can post decent (ie Top 100) level defensive numbers. Better finishes follow better defensive showings, while poorer showings follow middling offensive showings (compare the "According to Pomeroy" and "For the Record" tables above).
1. Cooley works himself into the regular rotation and can team with Nash to establish a strong low post presence. Most likely both will have to show better offensive presence than they did last season, but should they provide the level of defense the Irish have lacked since Harangody's freshman year, Notre Dame can make a very big jump in the Big East.
2. Atkins proves he can handle the point, and can play well in tandem with Hansbrough. Atkins won't have to be an offensive "engine", as Hansbrough, Abromaitis and Scott should be effective from the wing and into (say) 10 feet or so. But Atkins does have to shoot (and penetrate) enough to require a defender. His passing may be the most valued asset this season.
3. Abromaitis proves that 2010 was not a fluke. If the Euro-style forward can continue to hit from the outside and also come in enough to rebound (at both ends of the court), the Irish could find themselves with three competent rebounders on the floor at the same time. That would be especially helpful for the offense (which does not miss much to begin with).

Implode If...
1. Atkins needs an extra year to mature and Hansbrough has to take the point consistently. While that would create another opening on the wing (Grant perhaps?), it would also wear down ND's most efficient scorer. Hansbrough is not a consistent penetrator, so any low post attack would have to come from passes 10 or more feet out.
2. The offense does not get out of "stand and watch" mode. Harangody provided nearly 35% of the shooting when he was on the court. The returning players, Hansbrough excepted, served as extrememly efficient complement scorers to an offense that revolved around Harangody (and Hansbrough). This season the attention will be squarely on Abromaitis, Scott, Nash (the complementary contingent) and Hansbrough. If they cannot maintain their efficiency even as their offensive roles grow, the Irish will struggle to score. And the staff will have to look to the freshmen (and deep bench) for answers. That could take time.


Crucial Run/Bellweather Games
The high notes on Notre Dame's early out of conference (OOC) schedule include an opening round game versus Georgia at the Old Spice Classic. The Bulldogs, the first of two SEC teams Notre Dame sees this season, are considered (by some) a Top 25 team going into the season, which if true, would give the Irish a good neutral court test early in the season. The Old Classic second round could match NDU with either Temple, favored to win the A-10, or California, a lower division finisher in the underachieving Pac-10 last season. The third game opponent will come from a pool that includes Boston College, Texas A&M, (tournament favorite?) Wisconsin and (tournament host) Manhattan. If the Irish run the table in Orlando, throw this preview in the trash...a 2-1 record, with wins over Georgia and their second round opponent (most likely Temple) would be a very good outcome. Notre Dame meets Kentucky (the Big East-SEC Invitational) at semi-away Freedom Hall in Louisville, followed 48 hours later with a visit from perennial WCC-power Gonzaga at the Joyce Center. Those five games should give the fans a good idea of where the Irish are headed going into the Big East season (which starts early with a December tilt versus Georgetown). An OOC record of 10-2 or better will hint at a resurgent Notre Dame program in the Post Harangody Era, while a record of 8-4 (or worse) would suggest there are kinks still to work out. Debugging the line-up while the program is "running" is not the best of situations.

Notre Dame in the Brey Era tends to win at home and lose on the road. Last season the Irish were 7-2 at home and 3-6 on the road. An "off script" home-road record would suggest a good/great season (some unexpected road wins) or a poor/terrible season (unexpected home losses). Their first six games are evenly divided between home and away, with two games against mirror opponent St. John's, and (other) home games against Georgetown (their conference opener) and Connecticut and (other) road games against Syracuse and Marquette. A 3-3 record would suggest a middle of the conference finish. Notre clears half of their conference schedule by the end of January (five home, four road games), with an especially home-road pair (Marquette followed by Pittsburgh) going into the far turn. A 5-4 record would track with a 0.500 or so finish, but even 4-5 would not be cause for great concern. A 3-6 or worse record should set off alarm bells, while a 6-3 record should have folks talking about the "Ewing Theory" as they speculate on the BET and NCAA seeds for Coach Brey's squad. Notre Dame's longest road trip, taken in mid-February, will include stops in South Florida, West Virginia and Providence. If the Irish are on script, that should yield a 2-1 record. Anything lower could spell trouble.

2011 Transfers/JUCOs -- Nine to Watch

Another Effect of the 2009 Recession?
During the economic uncertainties in the spring of 2009 it seems a number of ADs held off on coaching decisions only to take decisive action during the 2010 season, as the economy began to improve. The large influx of transfers from the summer of 2008 slowed to a trickle in the summer of 2009; five of the nine listed this post are JUCOs who will be eligible immediately, and two others, both transfers from other Division 1 programs, are expected to qualify immediately under existing rules. Which leaves only two who did sit for (at least) a season.

	Who, What, Where...
Player	Pos.	Hgt	Wgt	From	To
Ron Anderson	4	6-8	225	Kansas State	South Florida
Jae Crowder	3	6-6	225	Howard College	Marquette
Tyree Graham	2	6-0	190	Brunswick CC (NC)	Rutgers
Shedrick Haynes	1/2	6-0	185	Lackawanna College	South Florida
Scott Martin	2/3	6-8	200	Purdue	Notre Dame
Eniel Polynice	2	6-5	220	Mississippi	Seton Hall
Jawanza Poland	2	6-4	195	Cowley CCC	South Florida
Hugh Robertson	2/3	6-5	195	Tallahassee CC	South Florida
Roburt Sallie	1/2	6-5	186	Memphis	Louisville

A quick check on transfers (but not JUCOs) this summer shows that nearly 450 Division 1 basketball players will change schools. Of that cohort, most -- but not all -- who will find another D1 program will sit for a season before gaining eligibility. From the group listed here, Eniel Polynice and Roburt Sallie should gain eligibility immediately. For the players who left a Division 1 program, assembling the statistics of their play at their previous stop was fairly easy, (many...) thanks to Ken Pomeroy. For six of the players, I have provided a mix of possession-based stats and shooting efficiency stats based either on their last season with a Division 1 team, or, where sufficient data was available, their JUCO stats...

		On Offense...
Player	%Min	ORtg	%Poss	%Shots	PPWS
Eniel Polynice	57.9	93.4	24.5	21.5	0.94
Scott Martin	51.1	97.9	23.8	23.2	0.98
Hugh Robertson	79.4	103.2	21.4	19.1	1.51
Tyree Graham	14.1	81.5	20.6	19.0	0.85
Ron Anderson	46.4	107.1	16.8	11.2	1.05
Roburt Sallie	76.9	117.3	16.6	17.3	1.20

For Polynice, Martin, Graham, Anderson and Sallie, the stats are from their last D1 stop, Mississippi, Purdue, Texas Tech, Kansas State and Memphis respectively. Graham played for Texas Tech in his freshman season. He then left to play a year at Study (NC) Brunswick Community College. I have some shooting efficiency stats available from Brunswick, which may shed a bit more light on Graham's value to the Rutgers. Statistical data from Tallahassee CC was complete enough to compute some rough possession-based numbers for Hugh Robertson. So I included him in this group, even though the Community College population is even less uniform that Division 1. If Robertson's Tallahassee numbers cannot be a particularly good predictor for his success at Rutgers, it does give us an idea of how well he functioned within the Tallahassee system.

		Four Factors...
					FTA
Player	%Min	eFG%	OR%	TO%	FGA
Eniel Polynice	57.9	43.4	4.3	24.2	28.7
Scott Martin	51.1	43.1	7.0	17.2	49.8
Hugh Robertson	79.4	57.1	4.7	16.9	39.9
Tyree Graham	14.1	35.8	3.6	25.6	28.3
Ron Anderson	46.4	52.2	13.6	17.7	103.5
Robert Sallie	76.9	57.3	4.1	14.7	42.3

Roburt Sallie and Eniel Polynice, with three seasons of Division 1 stats on the books are probably the two easiest to assess for potential impact. Sallie goes to a Louisville team that needs what he offers, maturity, efficient scoring and (possibly...hopefully) leadership. The possibly that he will transform from a mid-level "Role Player" into a "Go-to Guy" type offensive machine (>28% of the possessions and/or shots) are slim. That he will grow into a "Significant Contributor" (about 20-24% of the possessions and shots) while maintaining his shot efficiency is possible. Assuming he is coachable and plays defense, Louisville will find him minutes. Polynice on the other hand is somewhat problematic. A high-volume scorer, he is a more athletic, less efficient version of the Hall's senior off guard, Jeremy Hazell. Folks who wondered how Hazell, Pope and Keon Lawrence were going to share the ball in 2010, have to wonder how it will work with those three back in South Orange, and joined by Polynice. With a single season of eligibility remaining for Lawrence, Hazell and Polynice, it will be interesting to see how those pieces fit together. If Coach Willard can get and keep them on the same page, the Hall may take a giant step up into the second quartile of the conference. Ron Anderson will join a well-stocked front court rotation that includes (in no particular order) Gus Gilchrist, Jarrid Famous, As for the shot efficiency stats for the JUCOs, this is far from complete, but lacking minutes played, it is the best information we can get about how the player shot the ball

			FTA
Player	eFG%	PPWS	FGA	InOut
Jae Crowder	52.0	1.13	39.8	7.7
Tyree Graham	56.9	1.21	31.9	-10.6
Shedrick Haynes	53.2	1.14	27.9	-24.3
Jawanza Poland	53.8	1.19	50.3	33.1

While he does not appear to be the most efficient scorer among the "pure" JUCOs, Jae Crowder is probably the most anticipated. Marquette needs bodies for front court play, and at 6-6 225, Crowder will definitely see time beside Marquette wing Jimmy Butler. Coach Williams has a habit of finding Texas-based diamonds in the rough, and Crowder may well be his next find. Tyree Graham, an undersized #2 from Texas Tech by way of Supply Brunswick CC in North Carolina, will be one of those Coach Rice looks at closely as a replacement for departed (via transfer) Mike Rosario. Graham has two seasons of eligibility left, and will no doubt be used at both back court spots during the 2011 season. His freshman numbers are consistent with many freshman D1 players, and his minutes are low in part because he left the team during the season to return home and address family issues. Coach Stan Heath's back court was a ghost town on April 5. Dominique Jones and Chris Howard were set to graduate, while Jordan Dumars and Justin Leemow were transfers themselves -- out of Tampa. Working the JUCO circuit, the coach managed to land Shedrick Haynes, Hugh Robertson and Jawanza Poland, to go with several "true" freshmen. Robertson had the fourth highest offensive rating on his Tallahassee CC team, serving as a "Significant Contributor" on a squad that had a single "Go-to Guy" type player and three (Robertson included) "Significant Contributors". Shedrick Haynes played his last year at Lackawanna College in Pennsylvania, showing a decided "outside" tendency in his play (note the -24.3 rating above). Haynes took 52.3% of this field goal attempts from beyond the arc, converting those attempts at a 42.2% rate. Hit at anywhere near that rate for the Bulls, and he will take a lot of pressure off of USF's low post scorers. Jawanza Poland is a good example of the well-traveled player. He enrolled at Crowley County Community College and played there his freshman year, stopping in late January (for not particularly obvious reasons). The Crowley coach moved over to Hutchinson CC for the 2010 season and a number of his players followed him, Poland included. Crowley however, did not release Poland from his commitment, so the wing sat last season awaiting eligibility. And then he transferred to South Florida to join Coach Heath's squad. The numbers above, are two years old, and the last organized ball Poland played. He appears to be a slasher, a wing who goes to the basket (note his inside/outside stat is in the low 30s, and his FTA/FGA is >50, more characteristic of a front court, rather than a wing, player) and scores efficiently.

Hits and Misses...Last Season's Transfer/JUCOs
Wesley Johnson was the definition of an impact player. While the Syracuse team was the model for team play, the Iowa State transfer was the early season face of the resurgent Syracuse program. The Orange blew through the conference regular season, taking the title and #1 seed in the Big East Tournament, bringing Coach Jim Boeheim his fourth Conference Coach of the Year award and Johnson the Big East Player of the Year award. Despite an injury to senior bfc Arinze Onuaku that clearly diminished the team's inside presence, the NCAA seeded the Orange #1 in the West Region, where they fell to Butler in the Sweet Sixteen. Johnson, a consensus All-American waived his last season of eligibility and was drafted by the Timberwolves as the fourth selection in the NBA draft. Notre Dame looked to Ben Hansbrough for his outside shot, and the 6-3 off guard obliged with an efficient (if not dominant) contribution. Hansbrough, who completed his academic work and graduated last May, had a single season of eligibility left. Going into structured practices after the start of the Fall Semester, Darius Johnson-Odom was listed behind true freshman Junior Cadougan at the #1 and fellow JUCO Dwight Buycks and senior David Cubillan at the #2. Cadougan suffered a severe ankle injury and senior Maurice Ackers rejoined the team to man the point, but despite an injury of his own in September, Johnson-Odom rehabbed quickly and went on to be one of the most dangerous three point shooters in the conference last season. Both Dwight Buycks and Johnson-Odom will return to the Golden Eagles this season. James Beatty logged 63.7% of the playing time for Rutgers last season. An assist leader and very efficient scorer, his role in the offense (as measured by possession and shot rates) was limited. Perhaps with the change in coaching, that will change this season. Seton Hall's transfer duo Keon Lawrence and Herb Pope ran afoul of the "law". For Lawrence, the transgression was civil, and occured at the end of the exhibition season. Lawrence was suspended from team activities for about seven weeks, and re-instated at the beginning of the Big East season. Pope sucker punched a Texas Tech player early in the Hall's NIT game in March. He was ejected from the game and Seton Hall went on to lose that game 87-69. Bobby Gonzalez, SHU's coach, was fired the next day. Pope and Lawrence will return to South Orange this season to play for the Pirate's new head coach Kevin Willard. Forward Taylor King started very strong for Villanova, pulling down important rebounds and providing the Wildcats with a consistent perimeter threat. As the season progressed King's minutes declined. He was one of three players suspended at various points during the latter part of the season, not playing in the Wildcats' last regular season game, and used very sparingly in Villanova's last three games. King left the program in June, moved back to California and committed to play for Southern California in July. He now appears headed to NAIA Division 1 Concordia College in California. Scott Martin appears for the second consecutive season. Martin tore up his ACL before the 2009 season, had surgery to repair his knee and has engaged in a year's worth of rehabilitation.

Post Script
Coach Rick Pitino announced that Roburt Sallie would not be eligible to play for Louisville in 2011. Sallie sought a waiver to the one year sit rule because he had finished his undergraduate studies at Memphis and was enrolled in a Louisville graduate program not offered at Memphis. Though rumored for several days, Coach Pitino provided confirmation in a radio interview early Friday (8/27) morning.

2011 To Watch Lists
Rising Seniors to Watch
Rising Juniors to Watch
Rising Sophomores to Watch

2010 Transfers/JUCOs -- 10 to Watch

Changing Times
The Big East (with a few institutional exceptions) has been slow to embrace transfers & JUCO players. A new coach eager to rebuild quickly or a veteran coach looking for that last piece of the puzzle (Andrew Gaze of Seton Hall/PJ Carlesimo and Walter Berry of St. John's/Louie Carnesecca come to mind). The expansion of 2006 however, may have changed everything. Cincinnati and St. John's, both recovering from disastrous coaching transitions reached early and often into the JUCO ranks to restock quickly (with different levels of success). Coaching transitions at South Florida and and Marquette have sent Stan Haith and Buzz Williams to 2 year schools all over the Great Plains and East Coast for players who will fill gaps created by transfers, graduations and decommitted High School bballers. The trend is not limited to rebuilding programs or new coaches, over the period 2008-2010, nearly 30 JUCO/transfers, at least one for every team in the conference will suit up to play. Even Connecticut's Jim Calhoun, sensing that junior Hasheem Thabeet was ready last season inked 7-1, 255 lbs Charles Okwandu from Harkum Junior College, and Georgetown's John Thompson III, attempting to staunch the outward flow of players, brought in 2 DI transfers over the course of his tenure (Patrick Ewing from Indiana & Julian Vaughn from Florida State). Okwandu will team with entering 6-8 freshman Alex Oriakhi to anchor the low post.

Ten to Watch...
Success for the ten here will, I suspect, translate into success for their new teams.

Name	Pos.	Hgt	Wgt	From	To
James Beatty	1	6-3	190	Miami-Dade CC	Rutgers
Dwight Buycks	2	6-2	180	Indian Hills	Marquette
Jarrid Famous	5	6-10	240	Westchester	South Florida
Ben Hansbrough	2	6-3	205	Mississippi St.	Notre Dame
Wesley Johnson	3	6-7	198	Iowa State	Syracuse
Darius Johnson-Odom	1/2	6-2	200	Hutchinson	Marquette
Taylor King	3/4	6-6	230	Duke	Villanova
Keon Lawrence	1	6-2	175	Missouri	Seton Hall
Scott Martin	2	6-8	200	Purdue	Notre Dame
Herb Pope	4	6-8	235	New Mexico State	Seton Hall

Statistics for JUCOs are very uneven; I have located baseline numbers for only Jarrid Famous (Westchester CC) and Darius Johnson-Odom (Hutchinson CC). A quick look at those numbers...

				FTA
Player	%Min	eFG%	PPWS	FGA
Jarrid Famous	88.3	59.3	1.25	66.4
Darius Johnson-Odom	81.3	55.5	1.22	55.0

Jarrid Famous will man the low post alongside senior Alex Sanchez, becoming the latest in a line of South Florida #5s who stretch back to the Bull's 1st season in the Big East. Gus Gilchrist will step out to face the basket as a #4, giving South Florida an inside presence as imposing as Cincinnati (or Connecticut in the 1990s). Scoring will come from rising sophomore) Dominique Jones (among others), so Famous will not have to become a "go-to guy" right away, a luxury Marquette's point guard-in-waiting, Darius Johnson-Odom, will be pressed to avoid. No doubt returning #4 Lazar Hayward and incoming JUCO Dwight Buycks, out of Indian Hills CC in Iowa, but after returning junior Jimmy Butler, the Golden Eagles will need to find both another scoring option, and a good point guard to set the table. Johnson-Odom comes in with true freshman Junior Cadougan, who (no doubt the point guard of the future) may be ready to split the duties next season. Buycks was the Warriors (Indian Hills, but maybe the same will be said for Marquette next season) high scorer in 2009, named to the to the All-Region first team. Rutgers lost the services of reliable (if unspectacular) Anthony Farmer with the close of the 2009 season. Coach Hill's 2008 experiment using (rising sophomore) Corey Chandler was not successful. In the event that (rising sophomore) Mike Coburn is not able to step up effectively, Miami-Dade CC's James Beatty, a late signee for the Scarlet Knights, should do fine. Coach Hill is not looking for a shoot-first pg, he has (rising freshman) Mike Rosario to fill it up. What he needs is an assist-oriented pg who can find an open man (or Rosario if all else fails), and Beatty should be able to do that (and take a shot once in a while himself).

Stats for DI transfers is much easier to come by. And if the transfer played more than 10% of the time at his position before transferring out, Ken Pomeroy has extrapolated the raw data to develop possession-based stats for the players as well...

Player	%Min	ORtg	%Poss	%Shots	eFG%	PPWS	OR%	FTRate
Pope	27.4	88.4	27.7	26.8	46.2	0.94	8.7	39.2
Johnson	56.2	96.1	27.0	29.6	47.7	1.03	5.8	26.7
King	24.2	111.9	24.0	30.2	55.6	1.12	7.6	19.1
Martin	51.1	97.9	23.8	23.2	43.1	0.98	7.0	49.8
Lawrence	72.0	99.0	20.3	21.2	49.3	1.04	3.1	21.5
Hansbrough	73.1	113.8	15.5	16.8	54.7	1.16	2.3	30.1

The players are presented in "%Poss" order, suggesting the role they assumed at their previous stop. Their %Poss should be taken with "%Min" to develop a fairly good perspective on how significantly the player functioned within the former team's framework. Notre Dame needs a 3 point shooter to step into Kyle McAlarney's shoes. Actually they need two -- no one really flled Colin Fall's shoes last season. Scott Martin and Ben Hansbrough, along with several returning Irish players, will get an opportunity to show what they can do. Of the two, Martin might be the better candidate (though his 3 point production on the 2007 Purdue team was comparable to Tory Jackson's production on the 2009 Notre Dame team. Martin's playing time (51.1% of the minutes on the Boilermaker wing), coupled with his possessions and shots suggest he can play a 2nd/3rd option on offense. Hansbrough, more efficient scorer when he played at Mississippi State than Martin was at Purdue, will have to adjust to playing a more prominant role in the offense. As a Bull Dog Hansbrough operated (and excelled) as the 4th/5th option on offense. Can he do as well if the defense knows he is likely to get the ball? The Irish fortunes may well hang on how well those two can convert their opportunities into points. The path for Seton Hall's and Syracuse's seems far more certain. Both were "significant contributors" at their last stop (New Mexico State and Iowa State repsectively) and well regarded coming out of High School. Since taking the reins in South Orange, Pirate head coach Bobby Gonzalaz has watched his undersized but quick and speedy defense-oriented teams come out of the gate strong to begin the Big East season, only to fade by late February. Pope promises both size (and an inside threat to match wing guard Jeremy Hazell) and stamina. Syracuse also lacked size at the #3. Guard/forward Paul Harris was too good to sit, but possessed a skill set completely at odds with what the Orange needed. Johnson will fit better, his skills and personality should be oil (rather than sand) in the Syracuse machine.

Player	%Min	DR%	ARate	TORate	Blk%	Stl%
Herb Pope	27.4	21.6	13.4	24.9	3.1	2.3
Wesley Johnson	56.2	10.9	13.4	17.6	1.5	2.0
Taylor King	24.2	14.9	8.2	12.8	3.8	1.8
Scott Martin	51.1	14.7	13.4	17.2	3.6	2.6
Keon Lawrence	72.0	9.7	14.3	19.3	1.8	1.7
Ben Hansbrough	73.1	9.1	14.0	17.7	0.2	1.8

The path for Seton Hall's Keon Lawrence and Villanova's Taylor King is less certain, as each finds others starting ahead of them. Lawrence, the 3rd leading scorer for Missouri back in 2008, may find his time rotating on to the court when either (rising junior) point guard Eugene Harvey or (rising sophomore) Jeremy Hazell need to rest. For King, the road to the starting 5 may come as much from circumstances (he, unlike the true freshmen, has had a year of practice to learn Coach Wright's defensive system) and events (Reggie Redding...). While reknowned for his shot (see his eFG% and PPWS above), King may learn the fastest way to the staff's heart (and the court) is to learn to use his height (6-6+) and body (230 lbs) to become a rebounding demon. With an offensive rebounding rate of 7.6 and a defensive rebounding rate of 14.9, King is very close to being there. The Wildcat's will need rebounders who can hit their shots (not shooters who rebound whenever they can get around to it...).

And Then There is...
Not listed among the ten, but nevertheless worth noting include Casey Mitchell late of Chipola JC who will continue his career at West Virginia under Bob Huggins. Mitchell, a scoring machine for the Indians, was recognized as the JUCO Player of the Year in 2009, but will most likely split time on the wing with Devin Ebanks and D'Sean Butler, unless suspended guards Joe Mazzulla and Truck Bryant are not re-instated. Then Mitchell (along with the Ebanks and several "deeper rotation" players) may garner some consideration for handling the point guard duties. St. John's-bound Dwight Hardy, a 6-2, 170 lbs Indian Hills CC teammate of Dwight Buycks was the Warrior's 2nd scoring option and known for several 3 point eruptions in 2009. He may, if he can break into a Red Storm wing rotation that will include sophomore Quincy Roberts and juniors Paris Horne and DJ Kennedy, have an opportunity to do the same for the Johnnies. Hardy did a stint or two at the point for Indian Hills, so he may find some time spelling Maalik Boothe. Keno Davis took over a program dominated by graduating seniors and he led them back to the NIT in 2009. The 2010 Friars have needs to fill however, so Russ Permenter, a 6-9, 229lb #3 (out of Temple College, TX) and Kyle Wright, a 6-6 guard out of Monroe JC (by way of Stony Brook and Colorado) should get their opportunity to help Providence next season.

The Bearcat logjam in the front court will be a bit worse next season as heralded 4/5 Ibrahima Thomas, a 6-11 sophomore out of Oklahoma State comes to the Queen City. Thomas, perhaps unnerved by Coach Travis Ford's intense approach to his players and the prospect of always playing with his back to the basket, decided to leave Cowboy country for the banks of the Ohio River. Coach Cronin will run a rotation through the 4/5 that includes Anthony McClain, Yancy Gates, Steven Toyloy and Rashad Bishop, will also have to find time for Thomas.

Possession-based stats were gleaned from Ken Pomeroy's website, an invaluable resource. Stats for Jarrid Famous and Darius Johnson-Odom are based on stats gleaned from their previous schools (Westchester CC and Hutchinson JC).