Oh Canada! -- A Look at Saint Louis' Exhibition Tour

The Billikens' Northern Country Sojourn
Coach Rick Majerus decided to cash in his foreign tour chip on a six day (August 22 - 27), five game tour of Ontario Province, Canada. The Billikens took benefit of the NCAA-sanctioned 10 days of off season practice to prepare for the tour, conducting 15 full-team practices on 10 separate days between August 1 and August 19. The Saint Louis Men's basketball website did post box scores for three of the five games, along with write-ups/recaps for virtually every game. Unfortunately those were pulled down at some point on September 1. I located a box score of the uncompleted game, the Billikens' fourth game, (their first game) against the Carleton University Ravens, on the Carleton University website. St. Louis compiled a 3-2 record for the five games, routing Windsor University (98-57), the University of Western Ontario (88-59) and the University of Ottawa Gee-Gees (80-61) before falling twice to Carleton University 80-56 and 78-73 on successive nights. While the Canadian teams that make up the CIS have been variously described as comparable to Division 2 or Division 3 NCAA teams, CIS Hoops blogger Marc Wacyk wrote a background piece for vbtn last September, which suggested the top CIS schools were probably comparable to mid-level Division 1 schools. The Carleton Ravens team that beat Saint Louis twice logged a 34-1 record last season on route to their seventh CIS Championship in the last nine years, and would probably rank somewhere in the #120-#200 range in the RPI. The Ravens were "fully stocked" for the Billikens, by the way, having the services of 6-6 guard Cole Hobin and 6-8 forward Tyson Hynes, both of whom played for the Silver medalist Canadian WUG team in China earlier in the month. Those were two players not available to Raven Coach Dave Smart when Carleton played St. Louis' conference mate La Salle back on August 9. I compiled the box scores to develop an "possess-based overview" of the tour...

						FTA
	Pace	PPP	eFG%	OR%	TOV%	FGA	PPWS
Offense	66.8	1.08	56.9	29.3	21.3	31.7	1.15
Defense		1.00	57.3	19.5	25.6	40.6	1.22

Note the data includes box scores from four of the five games. Saint Louis' record for those four games was 2-2. The pace is a bit deceptive as the Bills and their opponents logged 73 (Windsor), 65 (Ottawa), 64 (Carleton) and 64 (Carleton) -- adjusted for a 40 minute game -- in the four games. The pace in the last three games suggests the Bills were rounding into form for the season, as Majerus-coached teams are typically among the lowest 15% in Division 1. PPP is short for points per possession, an estimate (derived from "points scored/possession") of the possession-based rate at which the team scored or allowed, points. Explanations for the other stats can be found here on Pomeroy's explanation for his Team Pages. Look for his explanation for Oliver's Four Factors.

Mid-season Form?
Keeping in mind these were exhibition games, some of the numbers suggest St. Louis is farther along than they have been at the start of practice the past few seasons. If the pace suggests the team is settling into the deliberate offensive rhythm Coach Majerus prefers, the offensive production (1.08 ppp) has to be gratifying as well. Billiken teams since Majerus' arrival have been offensively challenged, frequently posting offensive ratings (ppp *100) of less than 100. In the team's best season offensively, 2009, they registered an Offensive Rating of 100.1. Shot efficiency, and Points per Weighted Shot (PPWS) indicate the team converts when they are able to get off an attempt. Of the other offensive stats, turnover rate (TOR%) is the most troubling. St. Louis, with a possession rate in the low 60s cannot turnover one-in-five possessions and continue to convert in a relatively efficient (>1.00 ppp) manner. Controlling turnovers will no doubt make the Fall Practice "To Do List" (second only to shot defense -- check out the eFG% under defense).

A glance at the defensive numbers suggests there is more work to do on that side of the ball. Especially troubling is the possession rate (1.00), the shot efficiency and PPWS, all of which suggest an uncharacteristically porous defense. The Billikens under Majerus have been "defense first" teams (typically posting defensive ratings in the 90.8 - 98.2 range -- about 0.91 - 0.98 points per possession) that limit opponents' scoring by closing out on the shooter, limiting second chance opportunities (OR%) and keeping opponents off the line.

A Look at the Players
Compiling stats for the individual players may be able to give us a sense of where the Billikens' offense will come from in 2012...

									FTA
	Min%	Poss%	Shot%	ORtg	eFG%	PPWS	OR%	TOV%	FGA
Mitchell	46.6	27.4	24.5	108.8	76.9	1.56	2.8	28.0	7.7
McCall	67.2	26.6	26.8	116.9	64.6	1.34	1.3	10.0	31.7
Loe	43.6	25.2	26.2	68.0	28.8	0.68	10.0	6.5	15.4
Jett	45.4	24.6	19.3	104.5	52.5	1.17	1.9	16.0	60.0
Conklin	45.4	23.8	20.3	92.5	61.9	1.21	7.6	23.1	38.1
Evans	63.0	23.3	19.5	100.1	50.0	1.11	6.9	21.9	39.3
Ellis	57.5	22.1	23.6	102.2	59.7	1.17	7.5	8.4	22.6
Remekun	38.7	17.4	11.3	103.4	60.0	1.25	11.2	21.1	110.0
Manning	26.6	15.7	11.5	101.1	28.6	0.94	9.8	0.0	142.9
Barnett	55.7	15.5	14.2	65.5	33.3	0.69	1.6	16.6	11.1
Glaze	10.3	6.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.00	0.0	0.0	0.0

Kyle Cassity, Jimmy Remke and Emmanuel Tselentakis logged no minutes on the trip. Brian Daly saw less than a minute in the last game (versus Carleton). The players are presented in order by the percentage of the possessions they took when they were on the court, which should give us an indication of each squad member's impact on the offense and game. The minutes played (Min%) is a secondary consideration.

Kwamain Mitchell showed the rust accumulated by a season's inactivity (see his turnover rate and possession rate, both are too high), but with more play he will again be a force in Atlantic-10 conference play. The red shirt junior was injured in the first Carleton game (which led to the game being called at the 36+ minute mark) and did not play in the fifth game. A follow up report indicated no fractures were detected in a post game examination in an Ottawa hospital. Follow up evaluations are expected. The possession and shot rates suggest St. Louis' offense will be initiated and driven by the back court (Mitchell, Mike McCall, Jordair Jett and A-10 ROY Dwayne Evans) with help from the wings (Cody Ellis and Brian Conklin). Among the front court/low post players Rob Loe was active, but plagued by horrible shooting run (6-26 ovreall, 3-13 on three's and an identical 3-13 for two point attempts) negated his offensive board work. John Manning and Cory Ramekun, the balance of the front court contingent, played limited roles in the offense (see Poss% and Shot%). Manning compensated for some horrible shooting by getting to the line (see his FTA/FGA), while Remekun posted high conversion rates (and the ability to get to the line to finish) in a limited offensive role. Both showed offensive rebounding ability, a virtue that should persuade Majerus to use them throughout the season.

False Positives & Other Thoughts
These were exhibition games, and had St. Louis finished with a 5-0 record tempered expectations would still be in order. Teams that beat Carleton do not always go on to have great seasons (ask St. John's...), but teams that lose to Carleton tend to struggle (see Illinois in 2008 among others...). That is the background we need to use when evaluating St. Louis' two losses to Carleton. Though the Bills put forth a better effort in the second game (1.07 ppp vs. 1.12 ppp for the Ravens), they still lost by five, 73-78. The second cautionary note (third if you count Kwamain Mitchell's injury in the first Carleton game) is defense. Majerus-coached teams do not give up points, but this Bills team ceded more than 1.00 ppp in both Carleton losses, and 0.93 to the Gee-Gees in game three. The team will have to do better to have the kind of season that will warrent post season consideration. Look for St. Louis to follow a traditional Majerus trajectory -- get better as the season progresses. If SI's Andy Glockner's survey of Luck is correct, 2012 is the season Billiken fans have been looking forward to ever since Majerus took the helm.

Guest Contributor: Ray Floriani on Pitts Pace and Efficiency

by Ray Floriani

NEW YORK CITY - Over at the Siena Saints blog (an excellent location to visit for all things Siena and the MAAC) Ryan Restivo did an analysis of every Siena possession in their loss earlier this week at Minnesota. The analysis was focused on the length of each possession. Restivo found that Siena possessions under 15 seconds were a great deal more successful than those that lingered until the waning moments of the shot clock.

This study brought to mind a discussion I had with Dayton assistant Jon Borovich during the NIT Final Four last March. We discussed tempo free concepts, specifically the length of possessions. While he was not ‘trigger happy’ Dayton mentor Brian Gregory often stressed in coaching meetings to NOT allow the possession time to significantly increase. Gregory, as Borovich noted, believed a longer possession meant more passes and a greater chance of turning the ball over.

The 'Road to the Coaches vs. Cancer Final Four'
began with NJ transit in Lyndhurst

During game one at the Coaches vs. Cancer semis (Pitt vs.Maryland) at Madison square Garden, a breakdown of the Pitt possessions was recorded. The breakdown, similar to Restivo’s, grouped possessions as 15 seconds or more and under 15 seconds. The results, field goal percentage, times fouled and turnovers were also the same as the Siena breakdown.

Pitt entered the contest averaging 70 possessions per game with a 130 offensive efficiency. The Panthers defeated Maryland 79-70 in a hard fought game. The following tables show a breakdown of Pitt’s number of possessions, turnovers and field goal shooting for each. The first table deals with possessions ended before 15 seconds elapsed on the shot clock.

Pitt's Breakdown
	Possessions		Field Goal
	<15 Seconds	Turnovers	Shooting
1st Half	26	5	6-18 33%
2nd Half	31	9	10-15 67%
Game	57	14	16-33 49%

The next chart shows possessions that ran for 15 or more seconds.

Pitt's Breakdown
	Possessions		Field Goal
	>=15 Seconds	Turnovers	Shooting
1st Half	15	1	3-12 25%
2nd Half	12	1	6-9 67%
Game	27	2	9-21 43%

A note on the possession ‘bookkeeping’. The tempo free numbers per formula yielded 73 possessions. The charting counted 84. This is a work in process but to be consistent, I began counting common fouls as a new possession (which is not the case on the tempo free formula) . On offensive rebounds I extended the same possession as we do in tempo free studies. That last point accounts for several possessions breaking 15 seconds, as the Panthers grabbed 15 offensive boards on the night.

Good officiating friend Brian Dorsey (R)
worked his first MSG game

Despite my record keeping imperfection it is quite evident from the numbers, Pitt is labeled a ‘grind it out team’ but the breakdown shows Jamie Dixon’s club will run and attack early in a possession if an opportunity is there. That ‘grind it out label’ is more appropriate for the defensive reputation.

Jamie Dixon meets the media

	Pitt	Md
Possessions	73	73
Offensive Efficiency	108	96

Pitt placed five in double figures and was paced by 6-9 freshman Talib Zamma (14 points 12 boards).

Cliff Tucker led Maryland with 17 points while 6-10 sophomore Jordan Williams (a player to watch) added 14 points and 8 rebounds.

The key stat in the four factors was offensive rebounding percentage where the Panthers owned a ridiculously irregular 41-18% advantage.

Back with more coverage following the finals.

Ray poses for
the obligatory shot with
the Maryland cheering squad

Oh Canada! Cincinnati - McGill Post Game

Found a Servicable Boxscore...Let's Get Down to Business
The official boxscore has surfaced over at the McGill website as part of a game recap, but take it with a grain of salt. I have converted the Bearcat individual stats to possession-based efficiency ratings below. I pretty much trust what was recorded for the Bearcats, as much of it is confirmed via other postings, both at the Cincinnati website and by eyewitnesses. The Redmen numbers are suspect, particularly the "unknown player". I massaged their totals a bit -- field goals made and attempted particularly and rebounding -- to arrive at place where I can run the numbers for possessions and rebounding rates, and feel comfortable I am close to an accurate account. The totals by quarters first...

	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	Total
Cincinnati	16	26	23	24	89
McGill	20	14	11	13	58

Trailing coming out of the first quarter, the Bearcats managed to tie the game at the 4:00 minute mark of the second quarter, then put on an eight point burst to take (and hold) the lead, 42-34, going into the half. Several recaps note the Cincinnati, taking note of the eight second back court rule, began to press earlier in the possession to force McGill to dribble/pass through pressure. The scoring differential through the last three quarters (also noted in most recaps) was a striking 73-38 margin. CIS blogger Mark Wacyk noted in his recap, that McGill shooting in the first quarter was especially accurate and effective. The efficiencies and Oliver's four factors:

		Off				FTA
	Pace	Eff	eFG%	TO%	OReb%	FGA	PPWS
Cincinnati	63.0	141.2	60.2	4.8	30.8	40.7	1.26
McGill		92.0	51.1	17.5	10.7	30.4	1.10

63 possessions in an exhibition game, particularly where there is a gap in the scoring/athleticism/skill (note the Offensive Efficiency of each team and the 31 point scoring differential), is unusually low. That rate is more consistent with Northwestern (Princeton Offense), St. Louis (Coach Majerus' deliberate 4-out 1-in motion) and Pittsburgh, and lower, by about three-to-four possessions, than Cincinnati played to last season. The Bearcats, having lost Deonta Vaughn and Lance Stephenson, are, according to pre-tour interviews with Coach Cronin, intent on using the tour to develop a instinct for offense and develop a few basic ideas of how to score when they have the ball. In that context (looking for scorers and shooters), the lower possession rate makes sense. If the offensive rating (points per 100 possessions) is a dazzling 141.2, it is not predictive of great things coming in the 2011 season. It does suggest however, that there are offensive weapons on the roster...players who can score (at least against lower-level competition).

							FTA
Player	%Min	Poss%	Shot%	ORtg	eFG%	PPWS	FGA
Cashmere Wright	32.5	41.6	41.3	59.9	25.0	0.50	0.0
Eddie Tyree	7.5	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.00	0.0
Dion Dixon	55.0	24.0	18.3	98.6	66.7	1.16	66.7
Alex Eppenseine	7.5	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	2.27	0.0
Larry Davis	35.0	17.9	14.4	105.5	33.3	1.03	66.7
Darnell Wilks	57.5	12.2	8.8	133.1	83.3	1.80	66.7
Rashad Bishop	47.5	21.6	21.2	153.2	75.0	1.55	16.7
Sean Kilpatrick	57.5	23.4	26.3	153.4	77.8	1.56	0.0
Kelvin Gaines	15.0	26.7	11.2	209.7	100.0	2.13	200.0
Mugg McBride	2.5	63.3	67.1	0.0	0.0	0.00	0.0
Anthony McClain	32.5	15.3	10.3	113.7	50.0	1.04	100.0
Ibrahima Thomas	42.5	20.0	7.9	189.9	75.0	1.90	250.0
Yancy Gates	40.0	25.6	25.2	127.2	66.7	1.31	33.3
Jaquon Parker	62.5	32.1	32.2	99.6	58.3	1.16	16.7

While it very premature to draw broad conclusions based on a single exhibition game (or a three game tour for that matter), possession and shot rates suggest that the staff may use this tour as an audition for the next wave of Bearcat scorers and playmakers. The rotation went 15 deep, in part no doubt, due to the 31 point scoring margin, but possibly because the staff wanted to see a variety of player combinations as well. Jaquon Parker, Darnell Wilks, Dion Dixon and red shirt freshman Sean Kilpatrick appear (from the time allocation) to have gotten a very long look from the staff. Wilks remained invisible (note his 8.8% shot rate -- he was the 5th option on offense when he was on the floor), while Dixon pretty much played to where he has in the offense over the past two seasons, somewhere between a high-end "Role Player" (about 18-19% of the possessions and shots...possibly the 3rd option on offense) and a "Significant Contributor" (about 20-23% of the possessions and shots...possibly a 2nd option on offense if a more dominant offensive player is not on the court). Kilpatrick, a 6-4, 215 pound off guard, had a very good outing against McGill. Premature to be sure, but Kilpatrick, if he continues to score both efficiently and prolifically, may be one of the pieces for the team's offensive nucleus in 2011. A look at the assist rates and rebounding...

	Ast%	OR%	DR%	TO%	Blk%	Stl%
Cashmere Wright	11.0	11.8	22.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
Eddie Tyree	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
Dion Dixon	6.8	0.0	13.0	12.0	0.0	0.0
Alex Eppenseine	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
Larry Davis	9.2	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
Darnell Wilks	0.0	0.0	0.0	22.6	0.0	2.8
Rashad Bishop	8.2	8.1	7.5	0.0	0.0	3.3
Sean Kilpatrick	8.0	6.7	18.6	0.0	6.2	2.8
Kelvin Gaines	0.0	51.3	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
Mugg McBride	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
Anthony McClain	0.0	11.8	11.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
Ibrahima Thomas	14.9	18.1	33.6	0.0	0.0	0.0
Yancy Gates	10.4	0.0	17.9	0.0	0.0	0.0
Jaquon Parker	0.0	0.0	28.6	7.9	0.0	0.0

The board domination is led by rising sophomores Dante Taylor and Talib Zanna, two front court players who had less impact than many expected their first year out. I will be interested to see how Coach Dixon works them into the rotation.

Notes and Observations...
1. Rashad Bishop is back on the roster, an unexpected development as Bishop ran afoul of the Coach at the end of the 2010 season and was suspended for some part of the spring and summer. His re-instatement was accomplished with no fanfare/announcement. His offensive capabilities are at a premium this season. Hopefully he will embrace this opportunity to elevate the team's offense.
2. Jaquon Parker was identified as the "point guard", but the sophomore had no assists. Parker, who showed an ability to score efficiently as a freshman, may be more of a pg in the Deonte Vaughn mold, a scorer who seems more comfortable scoring off the bounce. He took a very large share of the possessions and shots (over 32%, comparable to a Luke Harangody, even more than Jordan Crawford...) when he was on the floor. Given his team-high 16 points, and that he logged the largest share of the minutes, suggests he may be auditioning for Vaughn's role in the Bearcat offense for 2011.
3. I was interested to see how Ibby Thomas does. This first game is mixed showing. When he took the ball McGill seemed content to foul and put him on the line, where he was 5-5. But in 20 minutes of action he took only two FGAs, virtually invisible in the offense, he functioned as the #5 option on offense. Not a good sign if Gates is going to be effective as a #1/#2 option on offense. His progress on this tour may be one of the early indicators on where the Bearcat offense will come from this season.

Next...
Cincinnati will play the Carleton University Ravens at the Scotiabank Place Arena in downtown Ottawa on Saturday night, 6:00pm. The game will be streamed live.

Carleton University has been to the CIS (Canada's counterpart to the NCAA) what Kentucky and North Carolina have been to the NCAA. The Ravins normally go into the CIS basketball season as the presumptive favorites to take the CIS Championship. Comparing teams from the two organizations is a challenge, but generally the Canadian teams would probably perform comfortably in mid/low-level NCAA D1 conference, like the MAC, NEC and Southern Conferences. Carleton will most likely provide the Bearcats with their sternest test on the tour.