Oh Canada! -- A Look at Saint Louis' Exhibition Tour

The Billikens' Northern Country Sojourn
Coach Rick Majerus decided to cash in his foreign tour chip on a six day (August 22 - 27), five game tour of Ontario Province, Canada. The Billikens took benefit of the NCAA-sanctioned 10 days of off season practice to prepare for the tour, conducting 15 full-team practices on 10 separate days between August 1 and August 19. The Saint Louis Men's basketball website did post box scores for three of the five games, along with write-ups/recaps for virtually every game. Unfortunately those were pulled down at some point on September 1. I located a box score of the uncompleted game, the Billikens' fourth game, (their first game) against the Carleton University Ravens, on the Carleton University website. St. Louis compiled a 3-2 record for the five games, routing Windsor University (98-57), the University of Western Ontario (88-59) and the University of Ottawa Gee-Gees (80-61) before falling twice to Carleton University 80-56 and 78-73 on successive nights. While the Canadian teams that make up the CIS have been variously described as comparable to Division 2 or Division 3 NCAA teams, CIS Hoops blogger Marc Wacyk wrote a background piece for vbtn last September, which suggested the top CIS schools were probably comparable to mid-level Division 1 schools. The Carleton Ravens team that beat Saint Louis twice logged a 34-1 record last season on route to their seventh CIS Championship in the last nine years, and would probably rank somewhere in the #120-#200 range in the RPI. The Ravens were "fully stocked" for the Billikens, by the way, having the services of 6-6 guard Cole Hobin and 6-8 forward Tyson Hynes, both of whom played for the Silver medalist Canadian WUG team in China earlier in the month. Those were two players not available to Raven Coach Dave Smart when Carleton played St. Louis' conference mate La Salle back on August 9. I compiled the box scores to develop an "possess-based overview" of the tour...

						FTA
	Pace	PPP	eFG%	OR%	TOV%	FGA	PPWS
Offense	66.8	1.08	56.9	29.3	21.3	31.7	1.15
Defense		1.00	57.3	19.5	25.6	40.6	1.22

Note the data includes box scores from four of the five games. Saint Louis' record for those four games was 2-2. The pace is a bit deceptive as the Bills and their opponents logged 73 (Windsor), 65 (Ottawa), 64 (Carleton) and 64 (Carleton) -- adjusted for a 40 minute game -- in the four games. The pace in the last three games suggests the Bills were rounding into form for the season, as Majerus-coached teams are typically among the lowest 15% in Division 1. PPP is short for points per possession, an estimate (derived from "points scored/possession") of the possession-based rate at which the team scored or allowed, points. Explanations for the other stats can be found here on Pomeroy's explanation for his Team Pages. Look for his explanation for Oliver's Four Factors.

Mid-season Form?
Keeping in mind these were exhibition games, some of the numbers suggest St. Louis is farther along than they have been at the start of practice the past few seasons. If the pace suggests the team is settling into the deliberate offensive rhythm Coach Majerus prefers, the offensive production (1.08 ppp) has to be gratifying as well. Billiken teams since Majerus' arrival have been offensively challenged, frequently posting offensive ratings (ppp *100) of less than 100. In the team's best season offensively, 2009, they registered an Offensive Rating of 100.1. Shot efficiency, and Points per Weighted Shot (PPWS) indicate the team converts when they are able to get off an attempt. Of the other offensive stats, turnover rate (TOR%) is the most troubling. St. Louis, with a possession rate in the low 60s cannot turnover one-in-five possessions and continue to convert in a relatively efficient (>1.00 ppp) manner. Controlling turnovers will no doubt make the Fall Practice "To Do List" (second only to shot defense -- check out the eFG% under defense).

A glance at the defensive numbers suggests there is more work to do on that side of the ball. Especially troubling is the possession rate (1.00), the shot efficiency and PPWS, all of which suggest an uncharacteristically porous defense. The Billikens under Majerus have been "defense first" teams (typically posting defensive ratings in the 90.8 - 98.2 range -- about 0.91 - 0.98 points per possession) that limit opponents' scoring by closing out on the shooter, limiting second chance opportunities (OR%) and keeping opponents off the line.

A Look at the Players
Compiling stats for the individual players may be able to give us a sense of where the Billikens' offense will come from in 2012...

									FTA
	Min%	Poss%	Shot%	ORtg	eFG%	PPWS	OR%	TOV%	FGA
Mitchell	46.6	27.4	24.5	108.8	76.9	1.56	2.8	28.0	7.7
McCall	67.2	26.6	26.8	116.9	64.6	1.34	1.3	10.0	31.7
Loe	43.6	25.2	26.2	68.0	28.8	0.68	10.0	6.5	15.4
Jett	45.4	24.6	19.3	104.5	52.5	1.17	1.9	16.0	60.0
Conklin	45.4	23.8	20.3	92.5	61.9	1.21	7.6	23.1	38.1
Evans	63.0	23.3	19.5	100.1	50.0	1.11	6.9	21.9	39.3
Ellis	57.5	22.1	23.6	102.2	59.7	1.17	7.5	8.4	22.6
Remekun	38.7	17.4	11.3	103.4	60.0	1.25	11.2	21.1	110.0
Manning	26.6	15.7	11.5	101.1	28.6	0.94	9.8	0.0	142.9
Barnett	55.7	15.5	14.2	65.5	33.3	0.69	1.6	16.6	11.1
Glaze	10.3	6.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.00	0.0	0.0	0.0

Kyle Cassity, Jimmy Remke and Emmanuel Tselentakis logged no minutes on the trip. Brian Daly saw less than a minute in the last game (versus Carleton). The players are presented in order by the percentage of the possessions they took when they were on the court, which should give us an indication of each squad member's impact on the offense and game. The minutes played (Min%) is a secondary consideration.

Kwamain Mitchell showed the rust accumulated by a season's inactivity (see his turnover rate and possession rate, both are too high), but with more play he will again be a force in Atlantic-10 conference play. The red shirt junior was injured in the first Carleton game (which led to the game being called at the 36+ minute mark) and did not play in the fifth game. A follow up report indicated no fractures were detected in a post game examination in an Ottawa hospital. Follow up evaluations are expected. The possession and shot rates suggest St. Louis' offense will be initiated and driven by the back court (Mitchell, Mike McCall, Jordair Jett and A-10 ROY Dwayne Evans) with help from the wings (Cody Ellis and Brian Conklin). Among the front court/low post players Rob Loe was active, but plagued by horrible shooting run (6-26 ovreall, 3-13 on three's and an identical 3-13 for two point attempts) negated his offensive board work. John Manning and Cory Ramekun, the balance of the front court contingent, played limited roles in the offense (see Poss% and Shot%). Manning compensated for some horrible shooting by getting to the line (see his FTA/FGA), while Remekun posted high conversion rates (and the ability to get to the line to finish) in a limited offensive role. Both showed offensive rebounding ability, a virtue that should persuade Majerus to use them throughout the season.

False Positives & Other Thoughts
These were exhibition games, and had St. Louis finished with a 5-0 record tempered expectations would still be in order. Teams that beat Carleton do not always go on to have great seasons (ask St. John's...), but teams that lose to Carleton tend to struggle (see Illinois in 2008 among others...). That is the background we need to use when evaluating St. Louis' two losses to Carleton. Though the Bills put forth a better effort in the second game (1.07 ppp vs. 1.12 ppp for the Ravens), they still lost by five, 73-78. The second cautionary note (third if you count Kwamain Mitchell's injury in the first Carleton game) is defense. Majerus-coached teams do not give up points, but this Bills team ceded more than 1.00 ppp in both Carleton losses, and 0.93 to the Gee-Gees in game three. The team will have to do better to have the kind of season that will warrent post season consideration. Look for St. Louis to follow a traditional Majerus trajectory -- get better as the season progresses. If SI's Andy Glockner's survey of Luck is correct, 2012 is the season Billiken fans have been looking forward to ever since Majerus took the helm.

Oh Canada! La Salle's North Country Tour, part 1

Why Canada?
Though initiated by Duke as a weekend whirlwind tour of Ireland scheduled to fill in a university-scheduled mid-semester break, the idea of a four game, 3-5 day barnstorming excusion did not catch on until 9-11 caused more than a few Division 1 members to reconsider the traditional 10 to 14 day tour to Europe (or Australia). At one point nearly 30 Division 1 programs per year squeezed through the loophole developed by Coach K. Local destinations like Canada, along with the Bahamas and Mexico, became popular Labor Day weekend destinations that allowed full squad practices without closing off the possibility of taking a longer foreign tour within the four year window. The NCAA banned these in-semester excursions as of the fall of 2009, and nearly banned foreign tours altogether. Cooler heads prevailed however and foreign tours were spared. Canada remains a popular destination for schools that want the full squad practices, but may not want to spend the time or the money on an intercontinental junket. The Carleton University Ravens, by consensus the most dominant basketball team in the Canadian Interuniversity Sport (CIS -- the Canadian equivalent of the NCAA) organization, has seized the opportunities presented and turned these tours into a cottage industry, hosting eight Division 1 teams this summer alone.

La Salle University headed north for a three game (plus a closed scrimmage) four day run to the Ontario Province city of Ottawa, home of the CIS Champion Carleton University Ravens and the The University of Ottawa Gee-Gees late last week (August 6). La Salle is one of two Atlantic 10 conference teams who will make the trek north in August. The Explorers began with a closed scrimmage with Carleton University on Saturday (8/6), and followed with a 75-61 win over the Gee-Gees on Sunday night. The possession-based breakdown...

						FTA
Team	Pace	Eff.	eFG%	TOV	OR%	FGA	Ast%	PPWS
La Salle	73.1	1.03	52.4	16.4	36.7	22.2	41.4	1.08
Ottawa		0.83	45.4	26.0	20.6	37.0	95.0	0.96

73.1 possessions is high even for La Salle, and given the horrific shoot conversion rate (eFG% was 45.4) of the Gee-Gees, combined with their very low offensive rebound rate (20.6%), suggests the Ottawa squad had too many one-and-done trips. La Salle did a nice job on the boards, the Gee-Gees clearly were not able to compete for missed shots. Other positives for the Explorers include....
1. Despite losing scoring from Aaric Murray, Ruben Guillandeaux and Jerrell Williams, La Salle nearly matched their overall offensive efficiency from 2011 (1.04) while holding the Gee-Gees to an impressive 0.83 points per possession (ppp).
2. Ottawa's assist rate (95%), combined with their 35.5% two point shooting rate (and board domination) suggests La Salle shut down the inside completely, Ottawa's guards were not getting into the lane much at all and their bigs were not able to finish. Though the Explorers allowed a 39% completion rate from the three point line (the equivalent of a 58.7% completion rate inside the arc), it did not hurt them because they essentially kept pace on the arc, hitting eight of their own.
3. Dr. Giannini used a starting line up of Tyreek Duren (pg), Tayor Dunn (#2#/3), Sam Mills (#2#/3), Jerrell Wright (#4) and Steve Zack (#5), giving those five 50% of the time. He used an 11 man rotation, allocating double digit minutes to five.
4. Ottawa's Gill Vikas paced all scorers with 20 points on 7-11 shooting from the field (6-10, 1-1). Earl Pettis led the Explorers with 15 points on 5-10 (2-4) shooting from the floor and 2-2 from the line, in 18 minutes of play. Steve Zack grabbed a game-high six rebounds, with Williams and Pettis taking five apiece.

1-1 After 2 Games
The Carleton Alumni Team edged the Explorers, 80-77, in their Monday night game, also played at the Ranven's Nest on the Carleton University campus. Though leading by seven at the 35:00 mark, the Explorers could not hold off a closing rush by the Carleton Alums, a tieing three point attempt at the buzzer missed. The possession-based breakdown...

						FTA
Team	Pace	Eff.	eFG%	TOV	OR%	FGA	Ast%	PPWS
La Salle	69.4	1.11	57.5	15.9	26.9	45.3	25.9	1.20
Carleton A's		1.15	55.3	17.3	32.4	45.6	50.0	1.15

Though La Salle had good offensive stats and compared favorably in shooting categories (eFG%, PPWS), the Carleton Alumni Team controlled the Explorers' backboards and, using their possessions more efficiently, squeezed out a more efficient 1.15 ppp to La Salle's 1.11 ppp. The alumni team, made up of several professional ball players (Osvaldo Jeanty, Neal Dawson, Stu Turnbull, etc.), were due to give La Salle a more competitive game than the University of Ottawa, but beating the Explorers is not a good sign for the coming season. These tours tend to show false positives, rather than false negatives. Teams that sweep up north may not necessarily have great seasons (see St. John's 2009 tour), but teams that lose games do tend to struggle in the regular season. Jeanty posted a game-high 34 points on 11-17 (8-13, 3-4) shooting from the field to go with a 4-5 night from the line. Jerrell Wright paced the Explorers with 19 points on a perfect 7-7 night from the floor to go with a 5-7 run at the line. Three other Explorers, Sam Mills (14 points), Tyreek Duren (10 points) and Devon White (10 points) logged double digit points. Mills also grabbed a game-high seven rebounds. The teams played for about 69 possessions, closer to the NCAA Division 2011 average of 66.7 than the exhibition-level 73 possessions versus Ottawa.

Next...
La Salle closes out their junket with an exhibition game against their host, Carleton University, tonight at 7:00 pm. Ravens starters Tyson Hinz and Cole Hobin, currently rostered with the Canadian World University Games Men's Team and in China, will not be available for tonight's game.

Further Reading
A background piece on the CIS by Mark Wacyk, who blogs about Canadian basketball on the CIS Hoops.ca blog.
The Ottawa game recap and box score.
The Carleton Alumni Team game recap and box score.

Oh Canada! Cincinnati 79-57 Over Ottawa to Sweep Tour 3-0

A Perfect Weekend
Several websites, including the University of Ottawa news site and the CIS Hoops.ca Blog, are reporting a 79-57 score to the Bearcat-Gee-Gees match-up this afternoon in Montpetit Hall on the Gee-Gees campus. Mark Wacyk reports the game was close through the second quarter when the Bearcats took a 17-7 run to end the half, taking a 40-31 lead into the locker room. Wacyk also suggests the Gee-Gees were the most athletic of the three Canadian teams to play Cincinnati this weekend. The game recap on the University of Cincinnati website reports the 17 points apiece scored by both sophomore Cashmere Wright and Sean Kilpatrick was the high for the game. For Kilpatrick, This is the second double digit scoring game this trip for Kilpatrick. For Wright, who was forced to take a red shirt year with an ACL injury, and had minor surgery on the same knee this off season, the opportunity to score double digits had to be a welcomed sign. Yancy Gates posted a double-double. No box score yet posted over at the University of Ottawa website, but their game recap does provide a scoring breakdown by quarter...

	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	Total
Cincinnati	21	19	18	21	79
uOttawa	19	12	5	21	57

As in the previous two games, it appears the Bearcats seized control late in the second quarter, then used the third quarter to build an insurmountable lead. Unlike the first two games, Cincinnati did not concede a quarter to the opposition, though the Gee-Gees did draw the fourth quarter. The Cincinnati recap also indicates the Bearcats out rebounded the Gee-Gees by 4, 36-32, another atypically close margin for Cincinnati. The 'Nati recap also reports the Bearcats had 16 assists on 29 field goals, which yields an assist rate of 55.2%, a good sign that the squad is sharing the ball and looking for team scoring opportunities. I will be interested to know who dished the assists in this game, as Wright, Parker and Dixon took turns as leaders in the first two games. I will provide another possession-based analysis when (if?) the box score becomes available. Congratulations to the Bearcats, and get home safely.

Oh Canada! St. John's North Country Tour

A Very Quick Preview
The NCAA banned these excursions as this fall, St. John's, having signed the contract to play before the ban, is exempt. The Johnnies may be one of the last universities to head North to get an early start on season with an extended exhibition. St. John's is scheduled to play a pair of "double headers" with 4 CIS university squads, McGill University, University of Quebec at Montreal, Carleton University and Ottawa University, over a two day period. Though technically these games are not double headers (St. John's will travel from McGill to UQAM's gym on Saturday, and from Carlton's facility to Ottawa's on Sunday), the schedule is fairly strenuous, and the staff will be forced by circumstances, to reach deep into the bench to keep pace. Between the two days, Sunday's schedule should be the more challenging, as the Johnnies face the Carleton University Ravens, winners of the CIS Championship in 6 of the last 7 seasons. The CIS (Canadian Interuniversity Sports) is the Canadian counterpart to the NCAA, and like the NCAA, they sponsor a nationwide post season tournament to determine a "national" champion. Carleton's coach, Dave Smart, has coached the Canadian National team for a number of years, leading them in a number of international competitions. The Ravens have been a regular stop for high-major teams heading North for the Labor Day Weekend, Coach Smart's squad has faced Villanova and Louisville out of the Big East in prior tours, defeating Alabama and playing Illinois of the Big Ten very closely.

The University of Ottawa Gee Gees are most likely the second most difficult stop on the tour. The Gee Gees finished 2nd in their conference (the OUA - East Division...not sure about the OUA abbreviation) to Carleton last season, and placed 5th in the CIS Tournament. The Johnnies will face the Gee Gees about 6 hours (and a cross town trip) after they complete their game with Carleton. The University of Quebec at Montreal (UQAM) Citadins (roughly translated, "townies" or "urbans") finished with an 8-8 record in their conference last season (the Quebec Conference), but did not compete in the CIS Tournament. McGill finished in a last place tie in the Quebec Conference in 2009, though the Redmen did have 17-15 record overall.

There is no reliable way to compare teams from the two organizations, but in the past Carleton has been described as a mid-major level program (RPI in the 70-110 range?), while the others scale down accordingly.

The Red Storm Beats...the Redmen?!
In an unusual case of nom deja vu (no pun intended...ok, maybe), the Red Storm defeated the McGill University Redmen, 90-55, this afternoon in Montreal. The game was competitive for the first quarter as the Redmen led the Red Storm 20-12, but St. John's turned on the burners in the second quarter to take a 52-26 lead into the locker room at the half. McGill never got back into it -- walk-on Kevin Clark was the last of 12 Red Storm players to whom the staff allocated minutes. McGill's website posted a recap of the game. Anthony Mason did not make the trip, the staff is playing it safe after he tweaked a hamstring in Thursdays practice. Only Dele Coker did not see action. Processing the box score (.pdf format) yielded these efficiency stats for the teams...

						FTA
Team	Pace	ORtg	eFG%	TOV	OR%	FGA	Ast%	Stl%	PPWS
St. John's	84.2	107.0	59.0	19.0	35.7	22.4	23.7	22.6	1.21
McGill	84.2	65.4	42.1	33.3	9.4	22.8	52.4	5.9	0.87

The pace, 84.2, tags this as an exhibition game. Among the high-majors, only North Carolina (and a few others) play routinely for that many possessions. Some of the good news...
1. The Red Storm logged an offensive rating of 107.0, one of the best offensive performances they have had in Coach Roberts' tenure. Check the PPWS -- at 1.21 the Johnnies were efficient from the floor, but also finished at the line when they were fouled.
2. Turnovers (TOV) and field goal efficiency (eFG%) showed improvement over last season.
3. Limiting McGill to an offensive rating (points per 100 possessions) of 65.4 is strong. It suggests that St. John's defended the shot well (indeed, note the Redmen's eFG% -- 42.1 is borderline stymied), provided very few 2nd chance opportunities (OR% of 9.4 is crushing on the defensive boards), and forced an extraordinarily high number of turnovers (TOV -- at 33.3 means McGill lost 1 in 3 possessions, most likely without getting a shot off).

A few areas of concern for the staff might include an offensive rebound rate of 35.7 and an assist rate of 23.7. In Big East snagging 35.7% of their misses would be very good, but given the Red Storm's absolute control of the defensive boards, I would have expected something over 40%, most likely in the range of 45-55. Strong shooting (except 3 pointers) may account for level of offensive rebounding. A "good" assist rate tends to depend on the type of offense the staff implements. Traditional half court sets and many (but not all) motion-oriented offenses rely on pick and roll, penetration and kick-out, or screens with catch-and-shoot plays. Frankly I am not familiar with the offense Coach Roberts runs. But whatever it is, it is not designed to have players shooting 18.8% from beyond the arc. The breakouts for the players...

							FTA
Players	Min%	Poss%	Shot%	eFG%	PPWS	ORtg	FGA	OR%	DR%
Hardy	65.0	18.9	23.0	40.0	0.80	77.3	0.0	0.0	4.8
Stith	65.0	11.7	6.9	66.7	1.54	140.5	200.0	5.5	24.0
Lawrence	57.5	18.0	18.2	42.9	0.86	68.7	0.0	6.2	21.7
Horne	52.5	14.2	17.1	75.0	1.50	143.7	0.0	0.0	17.9
Roberts	50.0	16.8	20.9	64.3	1.29	127.2	0.0	0.0	6.3
Brownlee	47.5	27.9	22.0	50.0	1.13	80.7	28.6	0.0	19.7
Kennedy	47.5	22.3	25.1	50.0	1.06	112.2	37.5	15.0	26.3
Boothe	37.5	24.0	15.9	100.0	1.84	132.0	75.0	9.5	16.7
Evans	35.0	28.7	34.1	50.0	1.00	94.8	0.0	30.6	35.7
Burrell	20.0	38.8	29.9	100.0	1.79	122.5	25.0	35.7	15.6
Thomas	17.5	18.5	25.6	66.7	1.33	147.1	0.0	0.0	0.0
Clark	5.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.00	0.0	NA	0.0	0.0

I sorted the table by Min%, though the starting lineup was Burrell, Boothe, Roberts, Horne and Kennedy, those five did not get the largest allocation of minutes. The starters in fact logged about 42% of total minutes, again consistent with exhibitions (particularly those which are over by half-time). Along with the familiar faces on offense (Burrell, Kennedy and Evans), it appears that JUCOs Dwight Hardy and Justin Brownlee will bring something to the table. Hardy however, will have to do better than 0-5 from 3 point range if the Johnnies offense is to have a credible perimeter game. Otherwise it just becomes too easy to concentrate on the front court players and shut the Reds' offense down.

The latest word from Montreal has St. John's beating UQAM by 40, 102-62. I will post the breakdown later.