Saint Louis Post Game: Deja Vu

Take Me Home, Country Roads
The first seven possessions went like clockwork, 13 points on 5-8 shooting with three made three point field goals as Villanova jumped out to a 13-5 lead on St. Louis. Then the Billinkens calmed down and began to work their offensive sets. The game tightened up as the Bills took a 12-10 run over the next six minutes to trim two points off of the Wildcats' lead. Then Mouphtao Yarou headed to the bench with his sesond foul of the half, and the wheels fell off of the wagon. Coach Rick Majerus' squad launched a 22-10 onslaught over the last 9:30 of the first period that wiped out Villanova's lead and sent Saint Louis into the lock room with a four point, 38-34 lead. And firm control on the game.

Watching Villanova's defense try to trap and press St. Louis reminded me of a badly played game of keep-away. By the mid point of the second half the relative youth (and indiscipline?) of the Wildcats showed with a series of flairing elbows and flagrant foul calls. Walking a fine line between tough, Big East defense and chippy basketball, the 'Cats found themselves under an unwelcomed refereeing microscope. The irony was that Villanova's offense was not terrible, as in lose-the-game terrible. With a 52.9% eFG% and turnover rate of 18.5%, how could Villanova be losing, and by double digits (the game was in the second half...) at that? The game reminded me of the West Virginia teams under John Beilein. Most of the time the Wildcats got much of what they wanted offensively, but would still lose to a Mountaineer team that understood what plays to run to exploit the Wildcats' help defense. As Blue and White defenders collapsed on the Billiken with the ball driving the lane (or at the elbow), the pass would go into the area just vacated by the "help" defender...to a Billiken flashing to the basket or set for a quick three. The Bills converted 14 of 27 three point attempts, far, far to high for any opponent to overcome. It was a game where high rebounding numbers and low turnover rates were marginalized by the extraordinary efficiency offered by the other team.

The bloggers over at VUHoops.com offered a brief recap with player grades while the Nova Blog posted a recap followed by a detailed player critique later. The University site posted their AP wire story. The official boxscore is also posted. The breakdown by halves

Opponent	St. Louis
	1st	2nd	Game
Pace	32.4	31.9	64.3
	Offense				Defense
	1st	2nd	Game		1st	2nd	Game
Rating	105.1	106.5	105.8		117.5	131.6	124.5
eFG%	56.3	50.0	52.9		68.5	60.4	64.7
TORate	15.5	21.9	18.7		12.4	9.4	10.9
OR%	6.7	37.5	22.6		0.0	31.3	17.2
FTA/FGA	41.7	25.0	32.7		7.4	83.3	43.1
FTM/FGA	29.2	21.4	25.0		3.7	54.2	27.5
ARate	75.0	30.8	52.0		64.3	41.7	53.8
Blk%	4.2	7.1	5.8		0.0	4.2	2.0
Stl%	6.1	9.3	7.7		0.0	6.3	3.2
PPWS	1.18	1.09	1.13		1.36	1.25	1.30
2FG%	56.3	52.4	54.1		45.5	53.8	50.0
3FG%	37.5	28.6	33.3		56.3	45.5	51.9
FT%	70.0	85.7	76.5		50.0	65.0	63.6
%2FG	52.9	64.7	58.8		26.3	33.3	30.0
%3FG	26.5	17.6	22.1		71.1	35.7	52.5
%FT	20.6	17.6	19.1		2.6	31.0	17.5

Half Time Adjustments
An anemic 6.7% offensive rebounding rate in the first half was "corrected" to 37.5% in the second half. Realistically that was probably the only way to boost an already good 56.3% eFG%. Ironically the rebounding improved -- but the conversion rate still dropped. A 52.9% eFG% coupled with a 1.13 PPWS should be good enough offensively to chalk up the win. The Billikens however, sliced up Villanova's defense to the tune of a 64.7% eFG% and 1.30 PPWS, numbers that should draw a comment from Ken Pomeroy and others who track those numbers. Villanova's "help defense" was it's own worst enemy in this game. And the frustration manifested by a number of second half chippy fouls (and Darrun Hilliard's quick exit after his fourth foul) suggests the players knew their best efforts were useless to shut down the offense they faced.

Notes & Observations
1. The assist rate drop from first to second half (75.0 to 30.8) is clear evidence that the offense went away from dribble drive to one-on-one breakdown as a response to being down double digits for much of the perod.

2. Maalik Wayns took a whopping 44% of the shots when he was in the game. Given he played 87.5% of the available minutes at one of the guard positions, his high shooting percentage was not a distortion of the minutes. His 49% possession rate, however, tends to reduce Villanova's offense to one dimension. Stop Wayns and the Wildcats stall.

3. James Bell emerged as a legitimate second option on offense. The sophomore wing took 26.5% of the shots when he was on the floor, with a comparable percentage of the possessions. Now one (or both?) of Mouphtaou Yarou or Dominic Cheek must establish themselves as legitimate second/third scoring options. For Yarou that means staying in the game (and game flow). For Cheek it means shooting/scoring more consistently.

4. The staff used a 10 man rotation again. Minute distribution ranged from five (Ty Johnson to 35 (Wayns) minutes, with eight drawing 10 or more minutes.

5. St. Louis was paced by sophomore guard Jordair Jett who came off of the bench to score 19 points on 7-8 (2-2, 5-6) shooting from the floor and 3-6 from the line. Kwamain Mitchell (32.1% Shot%), Cody Ellis (23.5% Shot%) and Rob Loe (43.6% Shot%) were, along with Jett, the offensive mainstays for St. Louis. Mitchell did not convert efficiently however, and Loe played only nine minutes (taking five field goal attempts in that time span).

Up Next... -- Santa Clara will face Villanova in the 3rd place game on Sunday.

Oh Canada! -- A Look at Saint Louis' Exhibition Tour

The Billikens' Northern Country Sojourn
Coach Rick Majerus decided to cash in his foreign tour chip on a six day (August 22 - 27), five game tour of Ontario Province, Canada. The Billikens took benefit of the NCAA-sanctioned 10 days of off season practice to prepare for the tour, conducting 15 full-team practices on 10 separate days between August 1 and August 19. The Saint Louis Men's basketball website did post box scores for three of the five games, along with write-ups/recaps for virtually every game. Unfortunately those were pulled down at some point on September 1. I located a box score of the uncompleted game, the Billikens' fourth game, (their first game) against the Carleton University Ravens, on the Carleton University website. St. Louis compiled a 3-2 record for the five games, routing Windsor University (98-57), the University of Western Ontario (88-59) and the University of Ottawa Gee-Gees (80-61) before falling twice to Carleton University 80-56 and 78-73 on successive nights. While the Canadian teams that make up the CIS have been variously described as comparable to Division 2 or Division 3 NCAA teams, CIS Hoops blogger Marc Wacyk wrote a background piece for vbtn last September, which suggested the top CIS schools were probably comparable to mid-level Division 1 schools. The Carleton Ravens team that beat Saint Louis twice logged a 34-1 record last season on route to their seventh CIS Championship in the last nine years, and would probably rank somewhere in the #120-#200 range in the RPI. The Ravens were "fully stocked" for the Billikens, by the way, having the services of 6-6 guard Cole Hobin and 6-8 forward Tyson Hynes, both of whom played for the Silver medalist Canadian WUG team in China earlier in the month. Those were two players not available to Raven Coach Dave Smart when Carleton played St. Louis' conference mate La Salle back on August 9. I compiled the box scores to develop an "possess-based overview" of the tour...

						FTA
	Pace	PPP	eFG%	OR%	TOV%	FGA	PPWS
Offense	66.8	1.08	56.9	29.3	21.3	31.7	1.15
Defense		1.00	57.3	19.5	25.6	40.6	1.22

Note the data includes box scores from four of the five games. Saint Louis' record for those four games was 2-2. The pace is a bit deceptive as the Bills and their opponents logged 73 (Windsor), 65 (Ottawa), 64 (Carleton) and 64 (Carleton) -- adjusted for a 40 minute game -- in the four games. The pace in the last three games suggests the Bills were rounding into form for the season, as Majerus-coached teams are typically among the lowest 15% in Division 1. PPP is short for points per possession, an estimate (derived from "points scored/possession") of the possession-based rate at which the team scored or allowed, points. Explanations for the other stats can be found here on Pomeroy's explanation for his Team Pages. Look for his explanation for Oliver's Four Factors.

Mid-season Form?
Keeping in mind these were exhibition games, some of the numbers suggest St. Louis is farther along than they have been at the start of practice the past few seasons. If the pace suggests the team is settling into the deliberate offensive rhythm Coach Majerus prefers, the offensive production (1.08 ppp) has to be gratifying as well. Billiken teams since Majerus' arrival have been offensively challenged, frequently posting offensive ratings (ppp *100) of less than 100. In the team's best season offensively, 2009, they registered an Offensive Rating of 100.1. Shot efficiency, and Points per Weighted Shot (PPWS) indicate the team converts when they are able to get off an attempt. Of the other offensive stats, turnover rate (TOR%) is the most troubling. St. Louis, with a possession rate in the low 60s cannot turnover one-in-five possessions and continue to convert in a relatively efficient (>1.00 ppp) manner. Controlling turnovers will no doubt make the Fall Practice "To Do List" (second only to shot defense -- check out the eFG% under defense).

A glance at the defensive numbers suggests there is more work to do on that side of the ball. Especially troubling is the possession rate (1.00), the shot efficiency and PPWS, all of which suggest an uncharacteristically porous defense. The Billikens under Majerus have been "defense first" teams (typically posting defensive ratings in the 90.8 - 98.2 range -- about 0.91 - 0.98 points per possession) that limit opponents' scoring by closing out on the shooter, limiting second chance opportunities (OR%) and keeping opponents off the line.

A Look at the Players
Compiling stats for the individual players may be able to give us a sense of where the Billikens' offense will come from in 2012...

									FTA
	Min%	Poss%	Shot%	ORtg	eFG%	PPWS	OR%	TOV%	FGA
Mitchell	46.6	27.4	24.5	108.8	76.9	1.56	2.8	28.0	7.7
McCall	67.2	26.6	26.8	116.9	64.6	1.34	1.3	10.0	31.7
Loe	43.6	25.2	26.2	68.0	28.8	0.68	10.0	6.5	15.4
Jett	45.4	24.6	19.3	104.5	52.5	1.17	1.9	16.0	60.0
Conklin	45.4	23.8	20.3	92.5	61.9	1.21	7.6	23.1	38.1
Evans	63.0	23.3	19.5	100.1	50.0	1.11	6.9	21.9	39.3
Ellis	57.5	22.1	23.6	102.2	59.7	1.17	7.5	8.4	22.6
Remekun	38.7	17.4	11.3	103.4	60.0	1.25	11.2	21.1	110.0
Manning	26.6	15.7	11.5	101.1	28.6	0.94	9.8	0.0	142.9
Barnett	55.7	15.5	14.2	65.5	33.3	0.69	1.6	16.6	11.1
Glaze	10.3	6.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.00	0.0	0.0	0.0

Kyle Cassity, Jimmy Remke and Emmanuel Tselentakis logged no minutes on the trip. Brian Daly saw less than a minute in the last game (versus Carleton). The players are presented in order by the percentage of the possessions they took when they were on the court, which should give us an indication of each squad member's impact on the offense and game. The minutes played (Min%) is a secondary consideration.

Kwamain Mitchell showed the rust accumulated by a season's inactivity (see his turnover rate and possession rate, both are too high), but with more play he will again be a force in Atlantic-10 conference play. The red shirt junior was injured in the first Carleton game (which led to the game being called at the 36+ minute mark) and did not play in the fifth game. A follow up report indicated no fractures were detected in a post game examination in an Ottawa hospital. Follow up evaluations are expected. The possession and shot rates suggest St. Louis' offense will be initiated and driven by the back court (Mitchell, Mike McCall, Jordair Jett and A-10 ROY Dwayne Evans) with help from the wings (Cody Ellis and Brian Conklin). Among the front court/low post players Rob Loe was active, but plagued by horrible shooting run (6-26 ovreall, 3-13 on three's and an identical 3-13 for two point attempts) negated his offensive board work. John Manning and Cory Ramekun, the balance of the front court contingent, played limited roles in the offense (see Poss% and Shot%). Manning compensated for some horrible shooting by getting to the line (see his FTA/FGA), while Remekun posted high conversion rates (and the ability to get to the line to finish) in a limited offensive role. Both showed offensive rebounding ability, a virtue that should persuade Majerus to use them throughout the season.

False Positives & Other Thoughts
These were exhibition games, and had St. Louis finished with a 5-0 record tempered expectations would still be in order. Teams that beat Carleton do not always go on to have great seasons (ask St. John's...), but teams that lose to Carleton tend to struggle (see Illinois in 2008 among others...). That is the background we need to use when evaluating St. Louis' two losses to Carleton. Though the Bills put forth a better effort in the second game (1.07 ppp vs. 1.12 ppp for the Ravens), they still lost by five, 73-78. The second cautionary note (third if you count Kwamain Mitchell's injury in the first Carleton game) is defense. Majerus-coached teams do not give up points, but this Bills team ceded more than 1.00 ppp in both Carleton losses, and 0.93 to the Gee-Gees in game three. The team will have to do better to have the kind of season that will warrent post season consideration. Look for St. Louis to follow a traditional Majerus trajectory -- get better as the season progresses. If SI's Andy Glockner's survey of Luck is correct, 2012 is the season Billiken fans have been looking forward to ever since Majerus took the helm.