Between Patrick & Joseph -- Villanova's Record on March 18

The Pause Between the Feasts...
While folks have mulled the subject of Villanova's record on St. Patrick's Day and even lately (ok here) the Wildcats' record on St. Joseph's Day, the day that separates the two has gone largely undocumented. Late enough in March to consist entirely of post season games, in fact Villanova's first post season tournament, the inaugural NCAA tournament in 1939, was played over this two day time period. While the Wildcats were victorious on St. Patrick's day 1939, defeating Brown 42-30, when they moved on to the first National Semi-Final, they were eliminated by Ohio State, 36-53, on the Palestra floor the following night.

After that first NCAA appearance, Villanova and March 18 went on a 29 year hiatus. Villanova continued to play in the post season, and March 18 continued to serve as a play date for the NCAA and NIT. The twain just didn't meet again until 1968 in the NIT quarter-finals, when Villanova lost to Kansas, 49-55, at Madison Square Garden. Since "breaking the ice", the Wildcats have played on March 18 seven more times in the ensuing 43 years.

March 18 by the Numbers...
Villanova has played nine post season games on March 18, going 4-5 (0.444) on the Day Between the Feasts. The record...

Year	Opponent	Location	Score	W/L	Tourn.
1939	Ohio State	Palestra	39-53	L	NCAA
1968	Kansas	Madison Square Garden	49-55	L	NIT
1971	Fordham	Raliegh NC	85-75	W	NCAA
1972	South Carolina	Morgantown, WV	78-90	L	NCAA
1988	Arkansas	Cincinnati, OH	82-74	W	NCAA
1992	Virginia	Pavilion	80-83	L	NIT
2003	Siena	Albany	59-74	L	NIT
2005	New Mexico	Nashville, TN	55-47	W	NCAA
2010	Robert Morris	Providence, RI	73-70	W	NCAA

The abundace of losses, especially when compared to St. Patrick (6-6) and St. Joseph (6-1) is intriguing as Villanova has a winning record in both the NCAA (49-31, 0.613) and the NIT (24-17, 0.585). The timing -- March 18 was the date for second and later round games (in both tournaments) through 1972. Which explains, to some degree, Villanova's less than stellar 1-3 record through that period. Note the games from 1988 through the present, played on March 18, are opening round games. Villanova's record through that period is 3-2. Let's hope the Wildcats can continue the opening round winning trend, and even the record in 2011.

Any Culture Changers at Villanova?

Program Changers Defined
Over on a stats blog -- SR/College Basketball (CBB Blog) -- Neil Paine posted (back in March) a list of 120 coaches, "program changers", whose influence, he suggested, were responsible for "Changing the Culture" of their respective programs. Fans of the Big East will recognize more than a few of the names (the Big East portion of the list is reproduced below), especially given the large write-up he devoted to Louie Carnesecca of St. John's. Filtering his results to focus on those who coached at least 120 games in a program that had played at least 120 games before he arrived, Paine presented his list of 120 culture changeing coaches (based on their winnig percentages versus their predecessor's winning percentage). Among Big East programs, the list includes (note a few predate the creation of the Big East conference)

			Record Before...				Coach's Record
Coach	FinalYr	School	Gms	W	L	Pct.	Gms	W	L	Pct.	Pct Diff
Peck Hickman	1967	LOU	438	189	249	0.432	626	443	183	0.708	0.276
James Freeman	1936	STJO	381	219	162	0.575	208	177	31	0.851	0.276
Al McGuire	1977	MARQ	950	505	445	0.532	375	296	79	0.789	0.258
Jamie Dixon	2010	PITT	2237	1249	988	0.558	242	188	54	0.777	0.219
Ed Jucker	1965	CIN	1009	589	420	0.584	141	113	28	0.801	0.218
Fred Schaus	1960	WVU	891	525	366	0.589	183	146	37	0.798	0.209
Edmund Dollard	1924	SYRA	137	70	67	0.511	210	151	59	0.719	0.208
George Smith	1960	CIN	799	435	364	0.544	210	154	56	0.733	0.189
John Thompson	1998	GTWN	1221	661	560	0.541	822	589	233	0.717	0.175
Hugh Greer	1963	CONN	553	298	255	0.539	386	274	112	0.71	0.171
Tom Young	1985	RUTG	1079	551	528	0.511	355	239	116	0.673	0.163

Pitt's Jamie Dixon may surprise a few, but Pitt fans know he has not only sustained the winning mentality instilled by his mentor Ben Howland, but has managed to maintain a high level of performance for nearly a decade. [Note -- I revised Dixon's numbers to reflect results in 2010].

Citizens of the Nova Nation may wonder why the Mainline is so under represented -- zero Wildcat coaches made the list. I was, so I compiled the records of Villanova's coaches going back to the program's first season of record (1921), and applied the same criteria as blogger Paine. My numbers look like this...

		Record Before...				Coach's Record
Coach	Final Yr	Gms	W	L	Pct.	Gms	W	L	Pct.	Diff
Michael Saxe	1926	0	NA	NA	NA	94	64	30	0.681	NA
Rube Cashman	1929	94	64	30	0.681	47	21	26	0.447	-0.234
Doc Jacobs	1936	141	85	56	0.603	118	62	56	0.525	0.079
Alexander Severence	1961	259	147	112	0.568	614	413	201	0.673	0.147
Jack Kraft	1973	873	560	313	0.641	333	238	95	0.715	0.042
Rollie Massimino	1992	1206	798	408	0.662	596	355	241	0.596	-0.119
Steve Lappas	2001	1802	1153	649	0.640	284	174	110	0.613	0.017
Jay Wright	2010	2086	1327	759	0.636	302	203	99	0.672	0.060

And there, at the beginning of the list, is the answer -- Michael Saxe -- Villanova's first men's basketball coach set the tone for his successors by compiling a 0.681 winning percentage. Had the program maintained a 0.681 winning percentage through it's history, the 'Cats would rank #7 on the All-time list by winning percentage. Through seven successors, only one managed to tally a losing record (and his tenure lasted three seasons) while five managed winning percentages within 100 points (+/-) of Coach Saxe. Having eight coaches over 90 (or so) seasons is uncommon (though not extraordinary); having a single coach in that period with a losing record is unusual.

How to Classify?
The Big Blue News blogger used three categories, "game changer", "solid former assistant..." and "rock bottom" to describe the cycles at Kentucky and how they fit within Neil Paine's original framework. Villanova does not appear to follow the Kentucky pattern. Lack of losing records, or even a pronounced (or prolonged?) downward regression did not really happen in the period after Coach Severence. Doc Jacobs seemed to have steared the program (back) into proper direction, with Coaches Severence and Kraft building on the foundation re-established by Jacobs. Coach Severence, on the other hand, comes very close to the "culture changer" described by Neil Paine, though he falls just short of the 0.160 percentage bump identified in the SR/Blog posting. Coach Kraft logged a winning percentage of nearly 0.072 above the program winning percentage when he took over, the second highest among Villanova's eight coaches, as he led the Wildcats to the post season in 11 (six NCAAs & five NITs) of his 12 seasons. Coach Massimino's winning percentage ranks him #6 out of Villanova's eight coaches, but he is ranks considerably higher in the Nova Nation because he delivered the National Championship that eluded his two predecessors. Coach Lappas may be even more of an enigma than Coach Massimino. Though he notched a winning percentage better than Coach Mass, while bringing Villanova a Big East Tournament Championship (the only one earned in Villanova's 29 years in the conference) and an NIT Championship, making Villanova one of 18 Division 1 programs to have earned both an NIT and NCAA Championship. Though he did not match Coach Kraft's winning percentage, Coach Lappas led Villanova to seven post season tournaments (four NCAAs & three NITs) in his nine seasons, nearly matching Coach Kraft's post season efficiency. Through nine seasons, Coach Wright has a winning percentage that nearly matches Coach Severence's. 25 seasons may be much to ask, but Coach Wright has been running a very hot streak since 2005, compiling a 151-53 record, good for a 0.740 winning percentage, approximately 25 points above Coach Kraft's mark for his Mainline tenure.

What is in Store for February?

The Best Start Ever
After concluding the best January of Coach Wright's tenure at Villanova, I wondered what February might have in store. How did February compare historically to January in the Coach Wright era? A trip to the archives yielded a compilation with one or two factoids...

	Summary
	W	L	Pct.
November	33	7	0.825
December	48	7	0.873
January	45	29	0.608
February	38	27	0.585
March	33	21	0.611
April	0	1	0.000

The Wildcats will play eight games during the month. If they play to historic averages, expect a 5-3 record for the month. The first 3-4 seasons were a disaster for Villanova; the last four had the Wildcats log a 0.719 winning percentage for the month. If Villanova plays to that winning percentage, expect a 6-2 record for the month. A 24-4 or a 25-3 record going into March would exceed the team's 2006 record (22-3) and their 2009 record (23-6), and certainly match some historic bests for the program (historically, March has been a much better month for the coach).

In Coach Wright's first three seasons February was a less productive month than January. Through the last five seasons the team's record in February improved over their January results. Coming off of a perfect January (8-0), it would be hard to see how February's results could better that record. At this point Ken Pomeroy is predicting a 5-3 record for the month.

Chicken Counting 2010, part I

Villanova's All Time Scoring Leader...Reviewing the Numbers
The all-time leading Wildcat scorer is Kerry Kittles (1992-96), who scored 2,243 points over a 4 year career that saw Villanova win the NIT for the 1st time (becoming 1 of 18 programs to win both the NCAA and the NIT) in his sophomore season, and the Big East Tournament in his junior season. Kerry scored his 2,243 points over the course of 122 games, averaging 18.4 points per game. Scottie currently ranks #15 in the list, just above Tom Inglesby (1970-73, 1,616) with 1,620 points, scored over the course of 105 games. There are two elements (health aside...) to factor in determining if Scottie can match (or exceed) Kerry Kittle's record...

1. How many points does he need?  and
2. How many games will he have to score them?

As to the first question -- 624 points, as posed in the title to a thread posted over at Villanova's VUSport's board last week is the answer. 623 points will tie Kittles' lifetime scoring record, 624 and the record is Scottie's alone. Scoring 600 points in a season has been accomplished only 19 times by (only) 15 players (yes, for the record Howard Porter & Keith Herron scored > 600 points twice during their careers on the Main Line; Kerry Kittles did it three times). The last player to score over 600 points in a season was Dante Cunningham in 2009. Dante scored 612 points in his senior season, leading the Wildcats to a #3 seed in the NCAAs ending in the Final Four. Dante was, by the way, only the third player of the Jay Wright Era to score 600 points -- Randy Foye in 2006 (his senior season) scored 677 points and Alan Ray, with 604 points in his sophomore season (2004) -- are the other two. Should Scottie reach the 600 point mark, it would be only the 5th time since 1950-51 that Villanova teams would have had 600+ point scorers in back-to-back seasons. And only the second time that the feat would have been accomplished by two different players.

Will Scottie have enough games? This is the least certain factor. We know that the Wildcats will play at least 31 games; 30 in the "regular season" and (at least) one Big East Tournament game -- and Scottie is virtually certain to play in (if not start) every one of those games. The math suggests he would have to average at least 20.1 points per game, a scoring pace comparable to Randy Foye's 20.5 ppg in 2006 (and Mike Bradley's 20.8 ppg in 2001), but not as demanding as Kerry Kittles' 21.4 average in 1995 (Kerry scored 706 points in 33 games that season) to have a chance of breaking Kittles' record. If however the 2010 squad plays about the same number of games as the past few seasons, count on Reynolds having between 33 and 35 (maybe more?) games with which to work. At 35 games Scottie will have to average better than 17.8 ppg, comparable to Doug West's 1989 season (17.9 -- he scored 608 points in 34 games) or Chris Ford's 1972 season (also 17.9 -- he scored 500 points in 28 games). With the lack of inside scoring early for the Wildcats Reynolds may have a few early season opportunities to build a good ppg, but best outcomes for the team would be healthy point production from a number of squad members, both in the low post and out on the perimeter.

Milestones & Guide Posts
Even if he has at best a small chance of breaking or even getting close to Kerry Kittles' record, chances are excellent Scottie will pass the 2,000 point career mark and become only the eighth Villanovan in that exclusive club. Alan Ray joined the group in 2006, and Kerry Kittles before Ray. Needing 380 points, a point total Reynolds has exceeded in each of his three preceding seasons, expect (if he plays all games next season and averages 15-16 points per game -- his average currently is 15.2) Scottie to pass the 2,000 mark about 2/3s of the way through the Big East regular season -- sometime in the second/third week of February. For the counters -- if Scottie's ppg > 15.2, move the "record game" up; if his ppg < 15.2, move the "record game" back. In any event, should the Wildcats play 33 or more games in 2010 and should Scottie appear in all of them, he will have tied or broken the record for most games played, 138, shared by Gary Massey and Doug West (both 1985-89).

Rivalries -- The Big 5

A City Tradition
I first learned about the Big 5 when I was a freshman at Villanova. My roomate, a native of Trenton, New Jersey and a die hard Phillies/Eagles fan, was a huge fan of The City Series. And little wonder. If the rest of the country had difficulty seeing a college basketball outside of the campus gym (NCAA finals & the UCLA/Houston game of 1966 excepted) fans of the Big 5 saw many of their series games televised throughout the Philadelphia media market, one of the innovations introduced with the inception of the series back in the 1950s. The series was approaching its peak years, still flying under the national sports radar. Lacking an "outsider's perspective" may have been a mixed blessing as Philadelphia fans developed a fondness for many of the rivalries' more passionate traditions -- the signs and pranks (good), the chant-counter chants (very good) and the confetti and streamer blizzard that celebrated the first basket of the game (very bad). The "1st Basket Celebration" required a time out to clear the debris off the Palestra floor. The fans stubbornly clung to this tradition until the NCAA instructed referees to assess a technical "delay of game/hazardous playing conditions" on the team whose fans tossed the confetti. Even then one or two "T"s had to be assessed before that "tradition" passed into the ages.

While bound by a renewable contract, the five schools entered into this quasi-conference playing arrangement in an era before the wholesale rise of conferences in the Northeast. Only the University of Pennsylvania belonged to an all sports conference in 1954, though St. Joseph's would join the MAC later in the 1950s.

Series Standings, 1955-2009
I reviewed and compiled these standings, using the records over at the University of Pennsylvania archives and Records Center, in addition to the media guides for the five schools (La Salle, Penn, St. Joseph's, Temple and Villanova). The record, compiled by an unacknowledged archivist, recorded the dates, scores, attendance and a short capsule for every one of the Big 5 games from 1955 (the first season) to 2000. Through the end of the 2008-09 series the teams have played 200 games apiece in the series, the composites:

	La Salle	Penn	St. Joe	Temple	Nova	Wins
La Salle	----	24	20	16	23	83
Penn	26	----	16	17	14	73
St. Joseph's	30	34	----	25	22	111
Temple	34	33	25	----	24	116
Villanova	27	36	28	26	----	117
Losses	117	127	89	84	83

	Composite
	W	L	Pct.
La Salle	83	117	0.415
Penn	73	127	0.365
St. Joseph's	111	89	0.555
Temple	116	84	0.580
Villanova	117	83	0.585

Ironically, Penn owns the worst overall winning percentage in the series, but the Quakers also have the best single decade winning percentage during the full round robin periods -- 0.725, earned for their 29-11 record compiled 1971-80. Over the course of that decade, those Quaker teams went to eight NCAA postseason tournaments, finished #1 in the big 5 six times and won eight Ivy League titles. The late Chuck Daly coached those teams from the 1970-71 season through the 1976-77 season, compiling a 125-38 (0.767) record. Note that Temple posted a 0.792 winning percentage during the period 1991-2000 on a record of 19-5. Most of that decade saw the Big 5 teams play a reduced (2 game) round robin in which the opponents/match ups were rotated. Villanova is however, on the verge of equaling (if not besting) both of those records. The Wildcats teams of 2001-02 through 2009-09 have compiled a 29-7 (0.806) record. If they lose all 4 games (perish the thought) next season, they will do no worse than tie the Quaker's 1971-80 record, while going 3-1 (or better) will translate into a winning percentage of 0.800 (or 0.825). If the Quakers have the lowest winning percentage, it is the Explorers who hold the dubious distinction of holding no advantage among the series rivals. La Salle finds itself on the losing side of each of their Big 5 series. La Salle (see table above) is Penn's saving grace.

Passing the Baton
The Hawks dominated the series in the period 1955-1970, piling up a winning percentage so significant (0.700) that it took nearly 2½ decades of mediocre ball (a 0.450 winning percentages overall) to bring St. Joseph's back to the rest of the field. An o'fer record in series games during the 1994 season opened the door for the Temple Owls & John Chaney to pass the Hawks. Their 0.450'ish winning percentage stalled the Hawks, but Temple under Coach Chaney posted a sizzling 33-11 record from 1982-83 (his first at Temple) to 1993-94 (when the baton passed from Hawk Hill to North Broad), an impressive 0.788 winning percentage. The Owls tenure atop the Big 5 ended this past season, a product of (as much?) rebuilding as the Owls transitioned from the Chaney Era to the Dunphy Era, as Villanova's record setting (2001-09) winning pace.

At a Glance
I have juxtaposed few odds and ends of interest in the tables below...

	Rivalries
	Nemesis				Goat
		W	L	Pct.		W	L	Pct.
La Salle	Temple	16	34	0.320	Nova	23	27	0.460
Pennsylvania	Nova	14	36	0.280	La Salle	28	22	0.560
St. Joseph's	Nova	22	28	0.440	Penn	34	16	0.680
Temple	[1]	24	26	0.480	La Salle	34	16	0.680
Villanova	Temple	26	24	0.520	Penn	36	14	0.720

Note [1] -- Both St. Joseph's and Villanova have 26-24 (0.520) records versus Temple.
As mirror programs, note that La Salle does not have a >0.500 record versus any of the Big 5 members, while Villanova does not have a <0.500 record versus those Big 5 members. Given their standings (and proximity in the Big 5 standings) it is hardly surprising that Villanova is a nemesis to 3 programs and Temple is nemesis to 2 programs. Odd then, that La Salle has had such (relative) success against Nova. The Villanova-Penn series is, by the way, the most lopsided in the City Series.

	Decades
	Best				Worst
		W	L	Pct.		W	L	Pct.
La Salle	[2]	19	21	0.475	1991-00	8	16	0.333
Pennsylvania	1971-80	29	11	0.725	1981-90	8	32	0.200
St. Joseph's	1961-70	25	15	0.625	1971-80	17	23	0.425
Temple	1991-00	19	5	0.792	1971-80	19	21	0.475
Villanova	1981-90	24	16	0.600	1971-80	19	21	0.475

Note [2] -- La Salle recorded an identical 19-21 (0.475) record in both the 1961-70 and 1981-90 decades.
The historical competitiveness of the series is such that each program has had (at least) one <0.500 decade, while also having (La Salle excepted) at least one >0.500 decade. Temple & Villanova can boast of a single sub 0.500 decade each, hardly surprising that their "Worst Decade" (along with St. Joseph's) would coincide with Penn's "Best Decade". St. Joseph's, not quite as fortunate as Temple and Villanova, suffered through a second sub 0.500 decade, 1991-00, albeit given the abbreviated round robin, the Hawks' record (11-13) yielded a 0.458 winning percentage.

Rivalries

We come from St. Olaf, we sure are the real stuff.
Our team is the cream of the colleges great.
We fight fast and furious, our team is injurious.
Tonight Carleton College will sure meet its fate.
Um Yah Yah! Um Yah Yah!
- St. Olaf College fight song

Gasoline...and a Match?
No question the students of St. Olaf consider the (Carlton College) Knights their rival. While I believe the animosity is mutual, I have yet to find a reciprocal set of lyrics in a Carleton fight song. That may be due, however, to the Carleton student body's obsession with securing ownership of a stolen bust of German philosopher Carl Schiller. The Villanova Wildcat's fight song does not single out a particular opponent. Nor as far as I can tell, have any opponents honored the 'Cats with a fight song reference.

Over on the Nova Nation message boards this past spring the subject wandered from rivals to lopsided series. The consensus was that Rutgers might be Villanova's goat, but I was not sure the series was "substantial" enough to warrant the term rivalry. I did however, wonder about that series and others, knowing there has been a long (and one or two) lopsided series among Nova's Big 5 rivals, not to mention a gem or two buried in the history books, after all, Villanova has records going back to 1921. I decided to take a look at the 2008-09 Media Guide...

Familiarity Breeds...(Contempt)?
I began with the thirty or so schools that Villanova has played most. Two facts were apparent as I surveyed the list
1. A few series stretch back to Villanova's earliest days as an NCAA program.
2. Not a lot of games were played in any series. The St. John's series, for example (most games played with Villanova), logs 101 games as of 2009 in a series that goes back 88 (or so) seasons. Oregon over in the PAC-10 conference for example, played (through 2006) 323 games with cross state rival Oregon State (a series that dates back to 1903), and 275 and 266 games with interstate rivals Washington and Washington State respectively (again, both series date back to the early 1990s). Long conference affiliations with Stanford, UCLA and USC have produced series that number 122 (from 1920), 96 (from 1937) and 95 (from 1956) respectively. Big Ten rivals, those in the SEC and the Big 12 have routinely logged series numbers similar Oregon (and their PAC-10 conference mates).

The lack of games is a feature common to many schools in the Northeast. Unlike their counterparts west of the Appalachian Mountains, teams of the Northeast did not affiliate through conferences until relatively late. Until the mid/late 1970s (when CBS paid very large broadcast fees to the NCAA for the exclusive rights to broadcast the tournament, but insisted that all invitees had to accept), most series among Northeastern schools were negotiated as a series of individual home-n-away contracts. Arrangements like the Philadelphia City Series (the Big 5) and the St. Bonventure-Niagara-Canisius (the Little 3) series were the exception, not the rule. Consequently many programs from the Northeast show a similar pattern to their series -- a small number of longstanding (frequently played) series, usually about 1/3 of the school's "most often played" list, with about half of that list made of up schools whose series boasts less than 40 games over 8 or more decades.

	Record				Series
Team	Gms	W	L	Pct.	First	Last	Span
St. John's (NY)	101	43	58	0.426	1923	2009	86
Seton Hall	96	60	36	0.625	1921	2009	88
Providence	83	49	34	0.590	1936	2009	73
Temple	81	42	39	0.519	1921	2008	87
Boston College	77	53	24	0.688	1946	2006	60
Georgetown	66	27	39	0.409	1922	2009	87
St. Joseph's	66	42	24	0.636	1921	2008	87
Syracuse	64	30	34	0.469	1946	2009	63
Connecticut	59	32	27	0.542	1941	2009	68
Pittsburgh	59	32	27	0.542	1960	2009	49
La Salle	58	32	26	0.552	1934	2008	74
Pennsylvania	56	39	17	0.696	1922	2008	86
Duquesne	50	25	25	0.500	1923	1994	71
St. Bonaventure	39	21	18	0.538	1925	1979	54
West Virginia	38	20	18	0.526	1938	2009	71
Princeton	37	22	15	0.595	1943	1991	48
Rutgers	32	24	8	0.750	1932	2009	77
Notre Dame	31	17	14	0.548	1970	2009	39
Niagara	30	20	10	0.667	1923	2008	85
Canisius	29	20	9	0.690	1926	1994	68
Muhlenburg	28	18	10	0.643	1923	1961	38
Loyola MD	24	20	4	0.833	1927	1983	56
Rider	24	23	1	0.958	1936	2006	70
Miami (FL)	23	13	10	0.565	1992	2004	12
Bucknell	22	14	8	0.636	1927	2007	80
Scranton	22	18	4	0.818	1927	1965	38
North Carolina St	22	10	12	0.455	1930	2007	77
St. Francis PA	21	19	2	0.905	1940	2000	60
Manhattan	20	9	11	0.450	1922	2002	80
Xavier	20	16	4	0.800	1952	2006	54

It comes as no surprise that all of the top 12 "most played" teams are current (green) or former (red) members of the Big East Conference or Big 5 (yellow) affiliates. No coincidence that the first twelve teams listed have a current or past affiliation with the Big East Conference or participates in the Philadelphia City Series (the Big 5). The influence of conference is apparent in the Miami (FL) series, a matchup that began and ended with Miami's "just about a decade" membership in the Big East. The teams have not maintained the series, indeed given the distances, the differences in student bodies and institutional missions (and histories), the lack of contact should not surprise.

For Auld Lang Syne...
Villanova's list still reflects a bit of basketball history from the 1940s and 1950s. Muhlenburg and Scranton were early opponents who the Wildcats played more regularly during the late 1930s and throughout the 1940s. This was the same time period when Al Severance, concerned about the growing influence of gamblers in Madision Square Garden and the Philadelphia Convention Center, eschewed playe dates in those venues in favor of campus-based play dates. The consequence was the loss of those opponents (St. John's, Temple, La Salle and St. Joseph's) who used those facilities as a "second" home court. The Muhlenburg Mules were hardly a step down in competition however, having been NIT participants several times during the 1940s. Both Scranton and Muhlenburg left Division 1 during the 1950s/60s as the conferences they belonged to reclassified to D3 and D2 respectively. Villanova and Penn agreed to play a number of double headers in Penn's on campus arena, the Palestra, for the 1950 season. The experiment was successful enough to to catch the eye and interest of the three other city schools, and serve as the precursor to the Big 5. The Dukes, Bonnies, Purple Eagles and Griffens shared a rivalry with the Wildcats that in most cases date back to the earliest days of the program. Those series were sustained over the course of decades, and especially for the Dukes and Bonnies, were competitive throughout. Changing conference affiliations and the growth of D1 basketball spelled the end to those annual matches.

Competitors & Goats
I resorted Villanova's 30 Most Played Opponents (below) by Villanova's series winning percentage. This is one of the few tables where, from a competitive standpoint, being in the middle is better than being at either end...

	Record				Series
Team	Gms	W	L	Pct.	First	Last	Span
Rider	24	23	1	0.958	1936	2006	70
St. Francis PA	21	19	2	0.905	1940	2000	60
Loyola MD	24	20	4	0.833	1927	1983	56
Scranton	22	18	4	0.818	1927	1965	38
Xavier	20	16	4	0.800	1952	2006	54
Rutgers	32	24	8	0.750	1932	2009	77
Pennsylvania	56	39	17	0.696	1922	2008	86
Canisius	29	20	9	0.690	1926	1994	68
Boston College	77	53	24	0.688	1946	2006	60
Niagara	30	20	10	0.667	1923	2008	85
Muhlenburg	28	18	10	0.643	1923	1961	38
St. Joseph's PA	66	42	24	0.636	1921	2008	87
Bucknell	22	14	8	0.636	1927	2007	80
Seton Hall	96	60	36	0.625	1921	2009	88
Princeton	37	22	15	0.595	1943	1991	48
Providence	83	49	34	0.590	1936	2009	73
Miami (FL)	23	13	10	0.565	1992	2004	12
La Salle	58	32	26	0.552	1934	2008	74
Notre Dame	31	17	14	0.548	1970	2009	39
Connecticut	59	32	27	0.542	1941	2009	68
Pittsburgh	59	32	27	0.542	1960	2009	49
St. Bonaventure	39	21	18	0.538	1925	1979	54
West Virginia	38	20	18	0.526	1938	2009	71
Temple	81	42	39	0.519	1921	2008	87
Duquesne	50	25	25	0.500	1923	1994	71
Syracuse	64	30	34	0.469	1946	2009	63
North Carolina St	22	10	12	0.455	1930	2007	77
Manhattan	20	9	11	0.450	1922	2002	80
St. John's (NY)	101	43	58	0.426	1923	2009	86
Georgetown	66	27	39	0.409	1922	2009	87

Interesting that those series where Villanova holds the greatest advantage are the least frequently played. I was surprised to see Villanova held an advantage that large over Xavier. While the two schools played 11 games in the 1950s and 1960s, the last regular season game was the 1973 season-ending matchup at Xavier. The last two meetings were a post season tilt during Villanova's NIT championship run in 1994 and a Wildcat loss to the X-men at the 2006 Paradise Jam. That Rutgers is Villanova's least competitive Big East opponent (South Florida, with 3 losses excepted) is hardly surprising, but Penn, a Top 25 All Time ranked program as Villanova's easiest (by far) Big 5 opponent should trigger a few head scratches.

When Does a Series Become a Rivalry?
1. Locality isn't required, but it helps -- St. Olaf and Carleton are both located in Northfield, MN. Bragging rights for Northfield may seem like small stakes, but in the dead of winter Northfield may seem like the universe. It is only 15 miles from Bethlehem, PA (Lehigh) to Easton, PA (Lafayette College). Is New England big enough for both Providence and Boston College (I gave preference to a conference mate). Notre Dame and USC have managed to stoke a (football) rivalry that stretches halfway across the continent, but it has to be easier if the rival is across town (like USC & UCLA; Cincinnati & Xavier) or within traveling distance (Seton Hall & Rutgers).
2. Contending for something of value raises the stakes -- and the passions. Villanova and Georgetown contended for a National Championship 24 years ago. That single game has become a reference point for both teams (especially when they meet and both squads are contending for conference honors), but the passion has not been sustained over the decades. Like many "failed relationships", it may be a matter of bad timing -- the Hoyas have tended to be down when the 'Cats are up, and visa versa (most of the time). Despite a promising, 7-6 pre-Big East start to their series, Villanova has compiled a passion-dampening 0.409 winning percentage against the Hoyas (worst of any of their Big East conference mates). The Thompsons have been heck on the Wildcats.
3. Sibling Rivalries -- are often the most heated. Our Civil War generated passions for a century after its conclusion, quite unlike World War II, after which the US entered into alliances with Germany, Italy and Japan within a decade after the conclusion of hostilities. Both Carleton College and St. Olaf are ranked in the Top 50 among Liberal Arts colleges (Carleton holds the decided edge in rankings, which may explain why St. Olaf makes the direct reference while Carleton students feign greater interest in a dead German philosopher) and draw their students from the same ethnic groups and geographic areas. The same generally holds for the "L"s in Pennsylvania. The Temple-Villanova series may be, based on winning percentages, the most closely contested of all of the Big 5 series, but it is the Villanova-St. Joseph's series that carries the name "Holy War". A socio-economic breakdown of St. Joes's and Nova's student bodies shows that those two schools draw from largely the same groups in largely the same geographic areas of the Middle Atlantic region. Nothing stings like the taunts from your brother (or sister).

Class of 2009

The four players who will graduate as members of the Class of 2009 were not the four most heralded players to set foot on the Main Line -- not an MDAA among them. But they leave a legacy that will be hard to match. Consider that:
 1. They went 15-1 in the Big 5, compiling an astonishing 0.938 winning percentage, the best in Big 5 history.
 2. The 2006 team (they were freshmen) broke Villanova's single season win record (26) by winning 28 games on their way to an NCAA Elite Eight.
 3. That 2006 team was the Big East regular season co-champion (with Connecticut), posting a 14-2 record in conference play. That 2006 team was the first in over 20 years to earn a regular season conference championship.
 4. As seniors their (2009) team broke that record again by winning 30 games in a season.
 5. Broke the Class of 2008's record for most career wins by a class (96) by winning 102 games during their 4 years on the Main Line.
 6. First class to win more than 100 games during their college career (102).
 7. First class since the class of 1985 to lead their team to the Final Four.
 8. The first time in Villanova history a second consecutive class has won 20 or more games per season every year during their career.
 9. The Class of 2009's winning percentage (.739) is the best since 1972 posted a career winning percentage of .756. That class compiled their record over 3 years.

Some Individual Numbers
The quartet proved to be a very good front court contingent...

Player	FGM	FGA	3FGM	3FGA	Pts
Dwayne Anderson	198	442	68	223	558
Shane Clark	250	563	70	198	716
Dante Cunningham	511	977	1	3	1328
Frank Tchuisi	9	26	0	0	29

...though frankly they were not brought in to provide scoring for the team. Indeed they were supposed to grab rebounds and lock down the lane, forcing shooters/scorers out to the perimeter according to the defense implemented by the coaching staff. Some of their defensive/rebounding numbers from this season...

NAME	GM	MIN	Off	Def	Tot	Ast	Stl	Blk
Dante Cunningham	38	1199	99	185	284	47	47	47
Dwayne Anderson	31	811	70	121	191	43	50	14
Shane Clark	36	705	63	76	139	33	18	10
Frank Tchuisi	23	78	5	11	16	1	0	1

Without context the numbers can be a little deceptive. Applying a possession-based metric, so only those rebounding opportunities when each player is in the game are considered yields these numbers (for rebounding, blocks and steals) for the past season:

				FTA
Player	%Min	OR%	DR%	FGA	%Blk	%Stls
Dante Cunningham	78.6	9.3	17.3	38.3	4.8	2.2
Dwayne Anderson	53.2	9.7	16.7	26.0	2.1	3.5
Shane Clark	46.2	10.1	12.1	40.1	1.7	1.5

The green are top 500 stats; the yellow highlighted stats are top 400 numbers; the blue highlight are top 300 stats; the red are top 200 stats. This group was outstanding at rebounding, outrebounding teams in 28 of their 38 games (28-8-2), more than a few had larger/longer front court players.

What Others Are Saying...
The Villanovan ran a good four page interview with the seniors that included a few off beat questions about the staff and college life. An interesting read for those who want a bit more insight to the individual players.
Publisher over at Villanova Viewpoint is running a series, Class of 2009 Senior Villanova Wildcats Farewells, that takes a look or two or three at the graduating seniors.
The Villanovan Sports Blog tips their hat at the winning class in Nova history, and speculates about the possibilities that either of the next two classes will better that record.

Beyond the Numbers...St. Joseph

Setting Down the Calculator...
The subject of St. Patrick's Day and how Villanova fares on that day has been the subject of more than a few discussions on the Nova Nation message boards (Bench Warmers & the subscriber-only Nova Nation board) over the years. Actually the discussions usually begin right around this time, as those saint days normally fall within the the window of the post season tournaments. Villanova's first post season, in the inaugural NCAA tournament, was played on St. Patrick's day of 1939 in the Palestra on the University of Pennsylvania campus. The Wildcats beat Brown 42-30 to advance to the national semi-final game against Ohio State. Little wonder then that Villanovans often believe there is a special connection between their Wildcats and the patron saint of Ireland, a notion encouraged no doubt by the fact that many immigrant families from the Emerald Isle sent their sons (and daughters) to be educated on the Main Line.

Less well known is the Feast of St. Joseph, celebrated on March 19th, two days after the Feast of St. Patrick. St. Joseph, spouse of the Blessed Virgin Mary is especially honored in Sicily, having been credited with delivering the island from a famine in the Middle Ages.

And Picking up the Calendar...
The Wildcats and Eagles will tangle on March 19, the Feast of St. Joseph. Villanova will play the game in the Wachovia Center in Philadelphia, the downtown pro arena they frequently use use to host the marquee opponents on their schedule. While it is well known that NCAA rules prohibit a team from playing a tournament game in a facility where they have played more than 3 "home" games during the season, a lesser known rule also requires a college (or conference) be named the "official host" for each facility used in the tournament. And that rule also prohibits a (men's) team from playing in the facility when they are the host school. Villanova had the foresight to cap at 3 the number of games they played in the Wachovia Center this season (a 4th downtown game was scheduled into the Spectrum, due to be demolished later this year) even though few thought the Wildcats would be seeded high enough to warrant deference when assigning pods and sites. As for the official host of the Wachovia Center? Fellow Big 5 member St. Joseph's University offered to be host when the bid was prepared. So Villanova will play American University in a downtown arena hosted by St. Joseph's University on...St. Joseph's Day.

The Feast of St. Joseph by the Numbers...
Villanova has played 6 post season games on St. Joseph's Day, going 5-1 (.833) on the Patron Saint of Sicily's feast day. The record...

Year	Opponent	Location	Score	W/L	Tourn.
1966	Army	Madison Sq	76-65	W	NIT
1978	Duke	Providence RI	72-90	L	NCAA
1982	Memphis	Raliegh NC	70-65	W	NCAA
1983	Lamar	Houston TX	60-58	W	NCAA
2002	Louisiana Tech	Pavilion	67-64	W	NT
2006	Arizona	Wachovia	82-78	W	NCAA

1966 was the first post season game played on St. Joseph's Day, a resounding win over a Bobby Knight coached Army team in the NIT semi-finals. The last was against Arizona in the Wachovia Center, the 2nd round game in the 2006 NCAA Tournament. The lone loss was at the hands of Duke in an NCAA regional final game played in Providence, RI in the 1978 NCAA Regional Finals. And St. Patrick? Despite the promising beginning, the Patron Saint of Irish has been a bit less benevolent over the years, as the Wildcats have a 6-6 record in games played on St. Patrick's Day.

Milestones

If the Nova Nation seemed to collectively exhale when the Wildcats beat the Providence Friars last Thursday, that was not the product of an overactive imagination. I was certainly relieved that the 'Cats posted a second consecutive strong outing on the heels of the Irish road trip. Muted, almost overlooked in the celebration of securing the #4 seed in the Big East Tournament and speculation over how well the team would be seeded in the NCAAs and where they might play their first round game was the hat trick turned that night. The team won 25 regular season games for the first time in 57 years, even as the Class of 2009 notched their 97th win, the highest total for a 4 year class and the team logged the program's 1,500th win since the program first kept records in 1921.

Not Since the Days of Arizin
While the men's team has won 25 or more games 7 times since 1938, 2009 was the first time since the 1951 season (and only the fourth time in the program's history) that the team won 25 games during the regular season. Those first three 25 win regular seasons occurred when legendary Alexander Severance (1936-61) was at the helm. The 1937-38 team, Severance's second team at Villanova, went 25-5 with wins over some familiar opponents (Rutgers, Providence, Temple...) and losses to a few unexpected ones (St. Francis of NY, Fordham, St. John's...). Severance would post two more 25 win regular seasons during his tenure, the second coming in Paul Arizin's last season on the Mainline (1949-50) and the last came a year later, with the 1950-51 team that saw another legendary forward, Larry Hennessy, log his first season with the Wildcat varsity. Arizin's 1949-50 team went 25-4 but, oddly, did not compete in a post season tournament. Arizin was, however honored as an All-American and Player of the Year, as he scored 735 points, the most scored by a Wildcat in a single season (that single season record would stand for only 3 campaigns -- Bob Schafer would smash it by scoring 836 points in the 1953-54 season, a mark that stands to this day). That 1950-51 team by the way was invited to two post season tournaments (the NCAAs, and a short-lived affair named the National Campus Tournament), and participated in both -- but failed (in 2 tries) to win another game. That team, having gone 25-5 in the regular season, finished with a 25-7 record.

In the 57 years since that 1951 team, four more Wildcat teams, those from 1984-85 (the National Championship team), 1994-95, 1995-96 and 2005-06, won 25 or more games. Each of those squads logged win number 25 during the post season. The record for most wins (28) is held by the 2005-06 team that featured seniors Jason Fraser, Randy Foye and Allan Ray, along with juniors Mike Nardi and Bump Sheridan and sophomore Kyle Lowry. And a trio freshmen named Dwayne Anderson, Shane Clark and Dante Cunningham.

97 and Counting
The Class of 2009 broke their tie with the Class of 2008 with that last win. With up to three games in the Big East Tournament and another six in the NCAAs, this class could be the first in the program's history to win 100 games during their four years. The caveat however, is that the tournaments are one-and-done affairs. Winning therefore, especially in the BET, increases the probabilities the team can do it without a run to the Final Four (...of course a run to the Final Four would be nice, wouldn't it?). Gross wins are certainly one way to measure what each class has contributed. Since 1983 (I believe the 1st class allowed to play freshmen on the varsity squad) 7 classes have graduated with 90 or more wins (1983, 1985, 1986, 1997, 2007, 2008 and 2009). Note three of those 7 occurred over the last 3 seasons, another hint at how well the staff has recruited and developed talent on the Mainline. Classes earlier than 1983 however did not have the benefit of an additional season of play. How to compare teams and classes from different decades (and rules books...)? Winning percentages might provide another, effective way to evaluate classes.

I looked at classes going back to Al Severance's first years as coach (1935-36), and considered classes from 1938 and later. The first thing that jumped out was the winning percentages for a number of those pre World War II teams. From the 1937-38 season through the 1941-42 season, every team won at least 80% of their games. 55-10 may not seem terribly impressive, but consider that the Class of 1941 (their record) won 84.6% of their games. Their predecessors, the Class of 1940 won 84.8% of their games. That record has not been bested, though there are several single seasons where the team has won better than 80% of their games (the squad from 1942-43 won 90.5% of their games, compiling a 19-2 record) under Coaches Severance, Kraft and Wright. The last class to have a career mark of 80% or better was the Class of 1951; which benefited from 2 years of Pitchin' Paul and one of Larry Hennessy. Coach Kraft's teams from the 1963-64, 1964-65 and 1968-69 all won more than 80% of their games (the George Leftwich, Jim Washington, Johnny Jones, Wali Jones, Bill & Bob Melchionni Eras which spanned the 1960s...), but the Class of 1971 (Howard Porter, Clarence Smith, John Fox) compiled the best winning percentage over the course of their careers, 78.6% with a record of 66-18. In the era of four year players, the best class for nearly all of the period was, ironically, the first -- the Class of 1983 which compiled a 72.2 winning percentage on a 91-35 record. The Class of 2008 eclipsed that mark with a 72.4 winning percentage on a 96-36 record. The Class of 2009 incidentally, has won 74.0% of their games so far.

The First One Thousand Five Hundred
The Wildcats began the season ranked #28 on the Top 50 Wins list. They are currently #27, having inched past Missouri State from the Missouri Valley Conference. The Bear's season, no doubt disappointing at 11-20, ended with a 1st round loss in the Missouri Valley Conference Tournament, at the hands of Wichita State. The key for gross number of wins (winning records, excellence aside...) is sheer longevity -- Villanova is only 1 of 3 among those 50 teams that has logged less than 90 seasons of D1 ball. And only 1 of 11 teams that has logged less than 100 seasons of D1 ball. 1500 wins over 88 seasons means Nova has averaged 16.8 wins per season, good for a tie at #7 with Sun Belt Conference member Western Kentucky (another team with less than 100 seasons of D1 ball). Three of Villanova's Big 5 mates, Temple (currently ranked #6 with 1708 wins), Penn (#9, 1657) and St. Joseph's (#34, 1476) share Top 50 ranking with Villanova. Big East teams dominate this list -- the conference has 10 members (Syracuse, St. John's, Notre Dame, Louisville, Cincinnati, West Virginia, Villanova, Connecticut, Georgetown and Marquette) listed among the Top 50. At 20% of the list they outweigh the next nearest conference (the PAC 10 with 7 members or 14% of the list). With 62.5% of the conference represented, they nearly match the PAC 10's 70% representation.

If number of wins says something about longevity, winning percentage should say something about quality. In that list, Villanova with a winning percentage of 63.9%, currently ranks #20 (sandwiched between fellow Big 5 mates Temple and Penn -- the only other Big 5 teams ranked). Using this measure the Big East truly stands out among the conferences, as the conference places 12 schools among the Top 50 programs. To the previously listed 10, add DePaul and Providence. That means that the Big East 75% of the conference's members are ranked in the Top 50, and that 24% of the list is made up of Big East schools. The nearest conference, the SEC, places 4 teams (8% of the list, 33.3% of the conference) on the list.

Senior Night -- Looking Back & Looking Ahead

The last entry for the Class of 2009 has yet to be written. For these Wildcats there is still another 4-6 (hopefully just a bit more than 6...) weeks left on this season. This however, is the night set aside to honor the class; a moment to reflect on accomplishments and consider the possibilities seems, therefore, appropriate. The Class of 2008 (Sumpter, Nardi, Sheridan) holds the record for most victories, 96. That record may well be eclipsed by the Class of 2009: There are 6 more games left (counting Rutgers) in the regular season. Consider that the Wildcats will play a minimum of 1 game in the BET and 1 in a tournament after the BET. The season then has at least 8 more games. If this squad plays just .500 ball from here on out (4-2 in the regular season, with 1st round losses in the BET and NCAA), the Class of 2009 will tie 2008 for most wins. Surely this class will do better than .500 ball going out. Can they be the first Villanova class to win 100 games over their four year run on the Mainline? Ken Pomeroy's projection suggests either a 4-2 (Pythagorean wp) or 5-1 (individual games, Off/Def efficiencies) finish, important less for the BET seed (virtually certain to be 5th seed) than for getting to 100 wins.

At 4-2, the 'Cats would need 6 more wins, problematic in that there are few paths to 100 wins,with little room for misjudgements. They would need a run to the BET final (2-1, 3-0), followed by at least a run to the Elite Eight (3-1 or 4-0 and on to the Final Four!). A 5-1 run to finish the regular season would give an inch of breathing room.

The 15 classes with the most wins over their 4 year time at Villanova...

Class	Senior Season				Overall
of...	W	L	Pct.		W	L	Pct.
2008	22	13	0.629		96	37	0.722
1997	24	10	0.706		95	37	0.720
1985	25	10	0.714		92	38	0.708
2007	22	11	0.667		92	41	0.692
2009	20	5	0.800		92	34	0.730
1983	24	8	0.750		91	35	0.722
1986	23	14	0.622		91	44	0.674
1984	19	12	0.613		87	39	0.690
1998	12	17	0.414		87	42	0.674
1972	20	8	0.714		86	26	0.768
1971	23	6	0.793		85	27	0.759
2006	28	5	0.848		85	46	0.649
1980	23	8	0.742		84	40	0.677
1982	24	8	0.750		82	40	0.672
1981	20	11	0.645		81	41	0.664

Note the Class of 2009 (highlighted in green) is already tied for 3rd with the Class of 1985 (Dwayne McClain, Gary McLain, Ed Pinckney and Dwight Wilber) and the Class of 2007 (Ross Condon, Mike Nardi, Bump Sheridan and Curt Sumpter) -- not bad company at all. Beat Rutgers and they are ranked #3. The Classes of 1971 and 1972 are listed here as well, although rules then prohibited freshmen from playing on the varsity squads. Howard Porter was not a member of the 1967-68 squad. Note that while those squads won 86 & 85 games respectively, their winning percentages (.768 & .759) are well above the winning percentages of the other squads. The 1971 squad ran to the Final Four, losing to UCLA in the Championship Game.