Program Changers Defined
Over on a stats blog -- SR/College Basketball (CBB Blog) -- Neil Paine posted (back in March) a list of 120 coaches, "program changers", whose influence, he suggested, were responsible for "Changing the Culture" of their respective programs. Fans of the Big East will recognize more than a few of the names (the Big East portion of the list is reproduced below), especially given the large write-up he devoted to Louie Carnesecca of St. John's. Filtering his results to focus on those who coached at least 120 games in a program that had played at least 120 games before he arrived, Paine presented his list of 120 culture changeing coaches (based on their winnig percentages versus their predecessor's winning percentage). Among Big East programs, the list includes (note a few predate the creation of the Big East conference)
Pitt's Jamie Dixon may surprise a few, but Pitt fans know he has not only sustained the winning mentality instilled by his mentor Ben Howland, but has managed to maintain a high level of performance for nearly a decade. [Note -- I revised Dixon's numbers to reflect results in 2010].
Citizens of the Nova Nation may wonder why the Mainline is so under represented -- zero Wildcat coaches made the list. I was, so I compiled the records of Villanova's coaches going back to the program's first season of record (1921), and applied the same criteria as blogger Paine. My numbers look like this...
And there, at the beginning of the list, is the answer -- Michael Saxe -- Villanova's first men's basketball coach set the tone for his successors by compiling a 0.681 winning percentage. Had the program maintained a 0.681 winning percentage through it's history, the 'Cats would rank #7 on the All-time list by winning percentage. Through seven successors, only one managed to tally a losing record (and his tenure lasted three seasons) while five managed winning percentages within 100 points (+/-) of Coach Saxe. Having eight coaches over 90 (or so) seasons is uncommon (though not extraordinary); having a single coach in that period with a losing record is unusual.
How to Classify?
The Big Blue News blogger used three categories, "game changer", "solid former assistant..." and "rock bottom" to describe the cycles at Kentucky and how they fit within Neil Paine's original framework. Villanova does not appear to follow the Kentucky pattern. Lack of losing records, or even a pronounced (or prolonged?) downward regression did not really happen in the period after Coach Severence. Doc Jacobs seemed to have steared the program (back) into proper direction, with Coaches Severence and Kraft building on the foundation re-established by Jacobs. Coach Severence, on the other hand, comes very close to the "culture changer" described by Neil Paine, though he falls just short of the 0.160 percentage bump identified in the SR/Blog posting. Coach Kraft logged a winning percentage of nearly 0.072 above the program winning percentage when he took over, the second highest among Villanova's eight coaches, as he led the Wildcats to the post season in 11 (six NCAAs & five NITs) of his 12 seasons. Coach Massimino's winning percentage ranks him #6 out of Villanova's eight coaches, but he is ranks considerably higher in the Nova Nation because he delivered the National Championship that eluded his two predecessors. Coach Lappas may be even more of an enigma than Coach Massimino. Though he notched a winning percentage better than Coach Mass, while bringing Villanova a Big East Tournament Championship (the only one earned in Villanova's 29 years in the conference) and an NIT Championship, making Villanova one of 18 Division 1 programs to have earned both an NIT and NCAA Championship. Though he did not match Coach Kraft's winning percentage, Coach Lappas led Villanova to seven post season tournaments (four NCAAs & three NITs) in his nine seasons, nearly matching Coach Kraft's post season efficiency. Through nine seasons, Coach Wright has a winning percentage that nearly matches Coach Severence's. 25 seasons may be much to ask, but Coach Wright has been running a very hot streak since 2005, compiling a 151-53 record, good for a 0.740 winning percentage, approximately 25 points above Coach Kraft's mark for his Mainline tenure.
Over on a stats blog -- SR/College Basketball (CBB Blog) -- Neil Paine posted (back in March) a list of 120 coaches, "program changers", whose influence, he suggested, were responsible for "Changing the Culture" of their respective programs. Fans of the Big East will recognize more than a few of the names (the Big East portion of the list is reproduced below), especially given the large write-up he devoted to Louie Carnesecca of St. John's. Filtering his results to focus on those who coached at least 120 games in a program that had played at least 120 games before he arrived, Paine presented his list of 120 culture changeing coaches (based on their winnig percentages versus their predecessor's winning percentage). Among Big East programs, the list includes (note a few predate the creation of the Big East conference)
Record Before... | Coach's Record | ||||||||||
Coach | FinalYr | School | Gms | W | L | Pct. | Gms | W | L | Pct. | Pct Diff |
Peck Hickman | 1967 | LOU | 438 | 189 | 249 | 0.432 | 626 | 443 | 183 | 0.708 | 0.276 |
James Freeman | 1936 | STJO | 381 | 219 | 162 | 0.575 | 208 | 177 | 31 | 0.851 | 0.276 |
Al McGuire | 1977 | MARQ | 950 | 505 | 445 | 0.532 | 375 | 296 | 79 | 0.789 | 0.258 |
Jamie Dixon | 2010 | PITT | 2237 | 1249 | 988 | 0.558 | 242 | 188 | 54 | 0.777 | 0.219 |
Ed Jucker | 1965 | CIN | 1009 | 589 | 420 | 0.584 | 141 | 113 | 28 | 0.801 | 0.218 |
Fred Schaus | 1960 | WVU | 891 | 525 | 366 | 0.589 | 183 | 146 | 37 | 0.798 | 0.209 |
Edmund Dollard | 1924 | SYRA | 137 | 70 | 67 | 0.511 | 210 | 151 | 59 | 0.719 | 0.208 |
George Smith | 1960 | CIN | 799 | 435 | 364 | 0.544 | 210 | 154 | 56 | 0.733 | 0.189 |
John Thompson | 1998 | GTWN | 1221 | 661 | 560 | 0.541 | 822 | 589 | 233 | 0.717 | 0.175 |
Hugh Greer | 1963 | CONN | 553 | 298 | 255 | 0.539 | 386 | 274 | 112 | 0.71 | 0.171 |
Tom Young | 1985 | RUTG | 1079 | 551 | 528 | 0.511 | 355 | 239 | 116 | 0.673 | 0.163 |
Pitt's Jamie Dixon may surprise a few, but Pitt fans know he has not only sustained the winning mentality instilled by his mentor Ben Howland, but has managed to maintain a high level of performance for nearly a decade. [Note -- I revised Dixon's numbers to reflect results in 2010].
Citizens of the Nova Nation may wonder why the Mainline is so under represented -- zero Wildcat coaches made the list. I was, so I compiled the records of Villanova's coaches going back to the program's first season of record (1921), and applied the same criteria as blogger Paine. My numbers look like this...
Record Before... | Coach's Record | |||||||||
Coach | Final Yr | Gms | W | L | Pct. | Gms | W | L | Pct. | Diff |
Michael Saxe | 1926 | 0 | NA | NA | NA | 94 | 64 | 30 | 0.681 | NA |
Rube Cashman | 1929 | 94 | 64 | 30 | 0.681 | 47 | 21 | 26 | 0.447 | -0.234 |
Doc Jacobs | 1936 | 141 | 85 | 56 | 0.603 | 118 | 62 | 56 | 0.525 | 0.079 |
Alexander Severence | 1961 | 259 | 147 | 112 | 0.568 | 614 | 413 | 201 | 0.673 | 0.147 |
Jack Kraft | 1973 | 873 | 560 | 313 | 0.641 | 333 | 238 | 95 | 0.715 | 0.042 |
Rollie Massimino | 1992 | 1206 | 798 | 408 | 0.662 | 596 | 355 | 241 | 0.596 | -0.119 |
Steve Lappas | 2001 | 1802 | 1153 | 649 | 0.640 | 284 | 174 | 110 | 0.613 | 0.017 |
Jay Wright | 2010 | 2086 | 1327 | 759 | 0.636 | 302 | 203 | 99 | 0.672 | 0.060 |
And there, at the beginning of the list, is the answer -- Michael Saxe -- Villanova's first men's basketball coach set the tone for his successors by compiling a 0.681 winning percentage. Had the program maintained a 0.681 winning percentage through it's history, the 'Cats would rank #7 on the All-time list by winning percentage. Through seven successors, only one managed to tally a losing record (and his tenure lasted three seasons) while five managed winning percentages within 100 points (+/-) of Coach Saxe. Having eight coaches over 90 (or so) seasons is uncommon (though not extraordinary); having a single coach in that period with a losing record is unusual.
How to Classify?
The Big Blue News blogger used three categories, "game changer", "solid former assistant..." and "rock bottom" to describe the cycles at Kentucky and how they fit within Neil Paine's original framework. Villanova does not appear to follow the Kentucky pattern. Lack of losing records, or even a pronounced (or prolonged?) downward regression did not really happen in the period after Coach Severence. Doc Jacobs seemed to have steared the program (back) into proper direction, with Coaches Severence and Kraft building on the foundation re-established by Jacobs. Coach Severence, on the other hand, comes very close to the "culture changer" described by Neil Paine, though he falls just short of the 0.160 percentage bump identified in the SR/Blog posting. Coach Kraft logged a winning percentage of nearly 0.072 above the program winning percentage when he took over, the second highest among Villanova's eight coaches, as he led the Wildcats to the post season in 11 (six NCAAs & five NITs) of his 12 seasons. Coach Massimino's winning percentage ranks him #6 out of Villanova's eight coaches, but he is ranks considerably higher in the Nova Nation because he delivered the National Championship that eluded his two predecessors. Coach Lappas may be even more of an enigma than Coach Massimino. Though he notched a winning percentage better than Coach Mass, while bringing Villanova a Big East Tournament Championship (the only one earned in Villanova's 29 years in the conference) and an NIT Championship, making Villanova one of 18 Division 1 programs to have earned both an NIT and NCAA Championship. Though he did not match Coach Kraft's winning percentage, Coach Lappas led Villanova to seven post season tournaments (four NCAAs & three NITs) in his nine seasons, nearly matching Coach Kraft's post season efficiency. Through nine seasons, Coach Wright has a winning percentage that nearly matches Coach Severence's. 25 seasons may be much to ask, but Coach Wright has been running a very hot streak since 2005, compiling a 151-53 record, good for a 0.740 winning percentage, approximately 25 points above Coach Kraft's mark for his Mainline tenure.
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