Class of 2009

The four players who will graduate as members of the Class of 2009 were not the four most heralded players to set foot on the Main Line -- not an MDAA among them. But they leave a legacy that will be hard to match. Consider that:
 1. They went 15-1 in the Big 5, compiling an astonishing 0.938 winning percentage, the best in Big 5 history.
 2. The 2006 team (they were freshmen) broke Villanova's single season win record (26) by winning 28 games on their way to an NCAA Elite Eight.
 3. That 2006 team was the Big East regular season co-champion (with Connecticut), posting a 14-2 record in conference play. That 2006 team was the first in over 20 years to earn a regular season conference championship.
 4. As seniors their (2009) team broke that record again by winning 30 games in a season.
 5. Broke the Class of 2008's record for most career wins by a class (96) by winning 102 games during their 4 years on the Main Line.
 6. First class to win more than 100 games during their college career (102).
 7. First class since the class of 1985 to lead their team to the Final Four.
 8. The first time in Villanova history a second consecutive class has won 20 or more games per season every year during their career.
 9. The Class of 2009's winning percentage (.739) is the best since 1972 posted a career winning percentage of .756. That class compiled their record over 3 years.

Some Individual Numbers
The quartet proved to be a very good front court contingent...

Player	FGM	FGA	3FGM	3FGA	Pts
Dwayne Anderson	198	442	68	223	558
Shane Clark	250	563	70	198	716
Dante Cunningham	511	977	1	3	1328
Frank Tchuisi	9	26	0	0	29

...though frankly they were not brought in to provide scoring for the team. Indeed they were supposed to grab rebounds and lock down the lane, forcing shooters/scorers out to the perimeter according to the defense implemented by the coaching staff. Some of their defensive/rebounding numbers from this season...

NAME	GM	MIN	Off	Def	Tot	Ast	Stl	Blk
Dante Cunningham	38	1199	99	185	284	47	47	47
Dwayne Anderson	31	811	70	121	191	43	50	14
Shane Clark	36	705	63	76	139	33	18	10
Frank Tchuisi	23	78	5	11	16	1	0	1

Without context the numbers can be a little deceptive. Applying a possession-based metric, so only those rebounding opportunities when each player is in the game are considered yields these numbers (for rebounding, blocks and steals) for the past season:

				FTA
Player	%Min	OR%	DR%	FGA	%Blk	%Stls
Dante Cunningham	78.6	9.3	17.3	38.3	4.8	2.2
Dwayne Anderson	53.2	9.7	16.7	26.0	2.1	3.5
Shane Clark	46.2	10.1	12.1	40.1	1.7	1.5

The green are top 500 stats; the yellow highlighted stats are top 400 numbers; the blue highlight are top 300 stats; the red are top 200 stats. This group was outstanding at rebounding, outrebounding teams in 28 of their 38 games (28-8-2), more than a few had larger/longer front court players.

What Others Are Saying...
The Villanovan ran a good four page interview with the seniors that included a few off beat questions about the staff and college life. An interesting read for those who want a bit more insight to the individual players.
Publisher over at Villanova Viewpoint is running a series, Class of 2009 Senior Villanova Wildcats Farewells, that takes a look or two or three at the graduating seniors.
The Villanovan Sports Blog tips their hat at the winning class in Nova history, and speculates about the possibilities that either of the next two classes will better that record.

North Carolina Post Game -- Sleeping in the Streets

The Carolina March...
Historically, the Villanova staff has, with 4 days to prepare, come up with some innovative wrinkles to Wildcat game plans. Back in the waning days of 2005 the Four Guard Offense was born in the desperate days between Villanova's win over Florida (at the cost of Curtis Sumpter's ACL) and their Sweet Sixteen date with these same North Carolina Tar Heels. The Wildcats of 2009 were faster and better able to develop plays out of transition. Running with the Heels however, seemed to play right into the Tar Heels strengths. "Shoot 'em up & sleep in the streets" was the creed this team lived by this season. In going with that approach the staff showed tremendous confidence in the team. But on Saturday night, the Wildcats slept in the streets. The breakdown...

Opponent	North Carolina
Pace	77.0
	Offense		Defense
Rating	89.2		107.3
eFG%	36.1		49.2
TORate	15.5		15.5
OR%	38.3		31.6
FTA/FGA	20.3		89.2
FTM/FGA	15.2		35.5
ARate	10.4		10.4
Blk%	8.3		4.8
Stl%	7.8		9.1
PPWS	0.79		1.04
2FG%	40.4		35.0
3FG%	18.5		50.0
FT%	75.0		59.5
%2FG	60.9		33.7
%3FG	21.7		39.8
%FT	17.4		26.5

CBS does not provide a break down by halves; the play-by-play appears to have been provided by a firm more comfortable with the NBA (Dead ball foul on Cunningham?). And the narrative does not match the box score. A regrettable lapse with especialy bad timing. My informal tally taken on game night suggested the 1st half was an offensive shootout (as promised by the Nova staff), while the 2nd half saw significant defensive adjustments. Unfortunately that shot defense worked for both teams. I have not checked the other games (except Michigan-UNC), but 107.3 is the best defense any of Carolina's opponents were able to muster during the Heels' six game run through the NCAA field.

Observations & Notes...
1. Villanova's success through the tournament had been tied to good offensive performances from 2 of Corey Fisher, Dante Cuningham and Scottie Reynolds, with efficient contributions (and occasional domination) from two or more in the second wave (Anderson, Clark, Redding and Stokes). Credit the Tar Heels with their abilty to shut down all three in the first wave (Reynolds had the most efficient night with a PPWS of 0.88), while rendering Stokes and Anderson largely ineffective. The most efficient shooters wearing Blue and White were Clark and Redding, neither of whom were especially prolific scorers.
2. The Wildcats shot a disappointing 40.4% from inside the arc, though it compared favorably to UNC's 35.0% from the same distance. The Tar Heels however shot a fatal 50.0% from beyond the arc (versus Villanova's 18.5%), comparable to converting 2FGAs at a 75% clip. Fatal, absolutely fatal.
3. The 'Cats did a credible job on the boards, their offensive rebounding rate (38.3%) about where it was during the season. They were able to limit 2nd chance points for the Heels as well, but neither was particularly effective as Villanova was down by double digit numbers through much of the night.

Ref Notes
Pat Driscoll, Karl Hess and Scott Thornley ran the crew Saturday night. Driscoll and Hess have supervised (nine) other Villanova games this season, the 'Cats going 7-2 in those tilts. The Wildcats have seen Scott Thornley before -- in the 2007 NCAAs when Villanova lost to Kentucky. The game was a bit high in the number of free throws allocated to the Tar Heels, consistent perhaps with the number UNC typically gets. Free throws for the Wildcats was down...significantly (for them). Though Carolina does not tend to foul. for Villanova, used to seeing 25% or more of their points come from the line, 17.4% was just not enough.

Next Up
The end of the season banquet, April 22 at the Pavilion. The official good bye to the Class of 2009 will be very, very special.

Offensive Ratings -- the Wings

I wanted to take a moment to track Villanova's 3 wings, Shane Clark, Dwayne Anderson and Corey Stokes, much as I did the three back court players. Using the same technique as the back court, I used the individual player ratings Ken Pomeroy has published since late November on each team's Scout Report Page. These numbers were drawn from Villanova's Scout Report Page. For the chart (below) I mapped their weekly ORtgs (individual Offensive Ratings) for the Big East regular season...




Shane Clark and Dwayne Anderson were rehabbing injuries early in the season, and getting back into the rotation through December. As the Big East season progressed the duo pulled minutes from Pena (eventually Shane replaced Antonio in the starting lineup) and to a lesser degree, fellow wing Corey Stokes. By the end of the February/beginning of March Anderson, Clark and Stokes were drawing about equal minutes (in the range of 20...). The relatively high ratings are a bit deceptive; of the three, only Stokes was consistently among the first three options on offense. Clark and Anderson have been a "major contributor" in only a handful of games. In the others each has contributed points efficiently, but not prolifically.

Notre Dame Post Game -- Good Enough.

The breakdown by halves...

Opponent	Notre Dame
	1st	2nd	Game
Pace	33.0	31.8	64.8
	Offense				Defense
	1st	2nd	Game		1st	2nd	Game
Rating	96.9	141.5	118.8		96.9	88.1	92.5
eFG%	42.2	62.5	52.3		51.9	41.1	46.3
TORate	6.1	9.4	7.7		18.2	28.3	23.1
OR%	20.0	41.2	29.7		22.2	45.0	34.2
FTA/FGA	18.8	21.9	20.3		42.3	32.1	37.0
FTM/FGA	15.6	15.6	15.6		19.2	17.9	18.5
ARate	58.3	41.2	48.3		90.9	70.0	81.0
Blk%	6.3	6.3	6.3		7.7	3.6	5.6
Stl%	3.0	6.4	4.7		9.0	15.5	12.2
PPWS	0.92	1.27	1.10		1.02	0.87	0.94
2FG%	37.5	47.8	42.6		46.2	36.8	40.6
3FG%	37.5	66.7	52.9		38.5	33.3	36.4
FT%	83.3	71.4	76.9		45.5	55.6	50.0
%2FG	56.3	48.9	51.9		37.5	50.0	43.3
%3FG	28.1	40.0	35.1		46.9	32.1	40.0
%FT	15.6	11.1	13.0		15.6	17.9	16.7

Defensive Adjustments
A first half-second half swap, similar to a number of Wildcat wins early last month (Cincinnati, Pittsburgh, South Florida, etc.). The 'Cats took the measure of Notre Dame in the 1st half, and adjusted the plan on both sides of the ball to pull away in the second half. I have included highlights for this split, including a few numbers, both offensive and defensive for each half. Very few red you ask? True, it was a really good game overall for the Villanova squad. The two teams posted identical efficiencies in the 1st half, but arrived at their respective 96.9 efficiencies (points per 100 possessions) by different routes. Note that Notre Dame scored pretty efficiently (better than their season average), posting an eFG% of 51.9, but they turned the ball over more than their season average (18.2 vs 14.0) and did not get many 2nd chance opportunities. The Irish got to the line more than expected, 42.3, but those FTA opportunities did not translate into a huge advantage. Note Nova's FTM/FGA was 15.6, while Notre Dame's was 19.2 for the half (and a bit worse for the game). Villanova arrived at their 96.9 with an unimpressive eFG% (42.2), but compensated by reducing their turnovers significantly. This might have been the best turnover game for the 'Cats this season.

Notes...
1. The game plan took Kyle McAlarney completely out of the game. He was 1-1 at the 19:44 mark, and that was his high point for the night. McAlarney would not hit another shot in the 1st half, (going 1-3 in the opening set) and would not take another shot until the 16:44 mark. Kyle went 1-4 in the 2nd half to close out the game with 5 points on 2-7 (1-3, 1-4) and 0-0 shooting.
2. Antonio Pena had 13 very productive minutes, scoring 6 points on 2-4 and 2-2 shooting. He grabbed 3 rebounds (1-2-3), but possibly more importantly, he kept Harangody off the boards. The Irish bf pulled only 7 boards, 4 on offense.
3. Point distributions for the two teams departed from their respective pattern for the season. Villanova usually gets about 50% of their points from 2FGMs, with the other 50% coming from a nearly even divide between FTMs and 3FGMs (lately tilting slightly towards 3FGMs). Against the Irish they just did not get to the line much, but made up for charity line deficit with scoring from near in (a little bit) and beyond the arc (a good deal more). Notre Dame's distribution (2FGM/3FGM/FTM) for the season is 51.0/33.5/15.5. The distribution versus the Wildcats was a skewed 43.3/40.0/16.7 -- near in field goals were not available.
4. The offense went through Cunningham, Clark & Anderson (when the latter two were on the floor). Scottie, Stokes and Fisher stepped back a bit (proportionate to their minutes). Cunningham had a decent night given all the attention he drew. Clark had a very good night, but Anderson & Stokes (and Fisher) struggled. Reynolds scored a team high 25 points, scored very efficiently (eFG% was 91.7, PPWS was 1.78).
5. Corey Fisher had a miserable shooting night. He was also saddled with 4 fouls, 3 in the 1st half alone. Fish did adjust however, something he had trouble doing on those nights last season. He dished 3 assists, had a block and a steal in 20 minutes of play.

Ref Notes
John Cahill, J.D. Collins and John Higgins (not a relation to Tim) whistled the teams for a total of 35 fouls, below the Wildcat's season average for road games, but probably consistent with Notre Dame home games. Notre Dame tends not to foul, nor do they get to the line much. The 'Cats got more foul calls than the Irish, possibly a surprise to Notre Dame fans, but common this season for the 'Cats (Nova got more calls in about half of their away games). Villanova's FTAs were outside of the standard deviation (low), barely noticed given the margin of victory. This was John Higgin's first Villanova assignment this season; Cahill and Collins both have run at least 1 previous Nova game. Villanova has a 5-1 record when those referees were on the crew that called their game.

Preview -- DePaul

The Wildcats take their second trip to the Midwest this season, as they take on the Blue Demons of DePaul University at the Rosemont Arena outside of Chicago on Wednesday evening. This has been a very rough season for the Demons. Many in the Blue Demon Nation believed a more mature nucleus combined with "the answer" at point guard would move DePaul up out of the conference's bottom quartile. Nearly two months into conference play and the Demons are still hunting for their first conference win. An 8-5 start has been buried under an avalanche of 14 consecutive conference losses. Despite a vote of confidence from (DePaul's) AD Jean Ponsetto, Demon Coach Jerry Wainwright has to feel pressure mounting as his team drifts away. Villanova narrowly leads this series (11-8) which dates back to 1939, well before the advent of the Big East Conference. Long runs by each team have given way to a rather too polite exchange of wins. And if the latter trend holds, it is Villanova's "turn" to lose...

Common Opponents, Good Wins, Bad Losses...
DePaul (8-19, 0-14, RPI #190) is in the midst of a spirit-draining 0-14 run which began with conference play. A winning margins comparison, team-by-team might be useful. Or not. Maybe a smaller, RPI-based comparison will highlight the differences...

		vs RPI			Conference
	RPI	1-50	51-100	>100	Overall	Home	Away
DePaul	190	0-10	0-4	11-8	0-14	0-7	0-7
Villanova	9	5-5	5-0	15-0	10-4	6-1	4-3

DePaul does not have any "bad" losses (losses to teams ranked 200 or lower in the RPI), but they have a lot of losses. The worst loss, most likely, was to conference rival Rutgers, who is currently ranked #178 in the RPI...

Lineups, Rotations...
...27 games into the season, and Coach Wainwright is still searching for a workable rotation. Over the past 6 games Coach Wainwright has put between 9 & 11 players (11, 10, 10, 10, 9 & 10) into the game. Generally Between 6 and 9 of those players will get 10 or more minutes. Some lineup/rotation instability can be laid to injury -- senior Jabari Currie (6-4, 215lbs) suffered a seasion-ending injury early this month. As one of my early season posts suggested however, DePaul's problems began even while Currie was healthy.

The Demon staff has started two wings, with or without a point. Sophomore Dar Tucker (6-4, 210lbs) is a program building block who will garner a good deal of attention by All Big East Team voters (and NBA draft mavens?), if the staff can keep him focused and motivated. Tucker has started virtually every game since his freshman year. He is the Demon's leading scorer this season and caught my eye once or twice this season with spectacular individual performances. Starting alongside Tucker will most likely be junior Will Walker (6-0, 180lbs), newly rediscovered this season. Walker started at the point for a good part of his freshman season, gradually working his way to the bench as his shot (and confidence?) went south. He was virtually invisible last season, playing behind Tucker and then senior Drealon Burns. Walker has the body of a point and the mind of a scorer, the perfect wing (if he can get a bit of space to get his shot off). Who plays point depends on which way the staff wants to go. If they are happy with that back court, expect Walker to bring the ball over mid court, but not set up the offense. If the staff wants a "true" point guard, expect either redshirt freshman Mike Bizoukas (6-1, 175lbs) or true freshman Jeremiah Kelly (6-1, 175lbs) to bring the ball up. Given the collective heigth of the players, that backcourt works largely when matched against squads of similar size. At one point or another the staff has tried about every combination (in pairs or trios...) of those 4.

The dynamic in the front court is similar, though without the injury wildcard in play. Sophomore Mac Koshwal (6-10, 240lbs), like Tucker an All Big East Rookie Team member last season will start at the #4/#5. At various times the staff has tapped redshirt freshman Kene Obi (7-2, 260lbs), true freshmen Krys Faber (6-11, 265lbs) and/or Devin Hill (6-9, 210lbs), sophomore Mario Stula (6-7, 210lbs) or senior transfer Matija Poscic (6-10, 235lbs) to start alongside Koswal. No matter who in that cohort starts (lately Faber, Proscic and even Obi have gotten the nod), expect to see most, if not all, in the game for some amount of time. Faber, Hill and Poscic have appeared in at least 24 of DePaul's 27 games, logging at least 200 minutes in the process. Obi and Stula have appeared in 18 and 19 games respectively; Stula has also logged at least 200 minutes in his appearances.

The staff has started Dante Cunningham and Scottie Reynolds in virtually every game this season. Expect that to continue into the DePaul game. Complementing Dante in the front court will most likely be Dwayne Anderson who has started since December (after a rehab period for a foot injury) and Shane Clark. The staff tabbed Clark to start seven games ago (versus Cincinnati) and Shane has justified that confidence by taking over the offensive boards and chipping in a number of well-timed buckets. Hardly a unanimous choice at the time (the 'Cats were coming off an upset of then #3 Pittsburgh), Clark has quieted critics with a series of dominating performances on Villanova's offensive boards. Expect Reggie Redding to start next to Scottie Reynolds in the back court. The Coreys, Fisher and Stokes will see time in the back court (Fish) and wing (Stokes), and given the size of DePaul's front court, I would also expect to see Antonio Pena get time.

By the Numbers, Offense & Defense...
At 66.2 possessions per game (adjusted), DePaul is very close to the D1 average (66.7) for possessions. It is one of the few stats that the Demons can lay claim to the description of "average". Descriptions of their offense and defense tend to be less complementary. The Demons are ranked #214 for offensive efficiency (98.7 adjusted, per Ken Pomeroy), the lowest in the Big East. Looking at the elements that most influence that rating...

When DePaul has the ball...
				FTA
	eFG%	TO%	OR%	FGA
Demon O	45.3	18.6	32.9	33.5
Wildcat D	47.0	21.7	30.6	37.9

The Demon's shooting efficiency (eFG%) is low -- rarely do you find a team's offensive eFG% below their opponent's defensive eFG%. That is not a good sign for DePaul. On it's way towards the Demon's basket, the ball will most likely pass through the hands of Dar Tucker (Shot% 34.1), Will Walker (Shot% 24.4) and/or Mac Koshwal (Shot% 21.5). 80% of DePaul's FGAs will be launched by one of those three if they are on the floor together. That may have proven be a bit too easy for opponents to prepare for, as the other two fellows on the floor (whoever they are...) split that last 20% of the shots (how closely should they be guarded?). Teams have to prepare for three scorers, not five. Walker and Tucker have Shot% (24.4 & 34.1) greater than their Poss% (20.1 & 31.8) and neither has an assist rate higher than 12.0 -- which suggests that once they get the ball, they either lose it, launch it, or go to the line for a free throw attempt -- they don't look for that open teammate. The Demons don't turn the ball over much (their strongest element on offense), most likely because they don't pass much -- their assist rate (assists per FGM) is 48.4, good for a #293 ranking.

The "Four Factors" look at Villanova's offense versus DePaul's defense:

When Villanova has the ball...
				FTA
	eFG%	TO%	OR%	FGA
Wildcat O	52.0	18.7	36.7	44.0
Demon D	51.6	19.0	38.3	24.7

Note the Demons tend to give up a larger portion of the defensive rebounds than the Wildcats normally gather -- and the 'Cats are pretty good (ranked #51) offensive rebounders, while the Demons are pretty bad (ranked #325). If this plays out, expect Shane Clark to have a monster night on the boards. If Shane is in position to putback, he could have a high scoring night. Turnover rates also repeat the anomaly of rebounding and Demon shot offense versus 'Cat shot defense -- the Wildcats don't turn it over much while the Demons don't force many turnovers (confirmed by their Stl% -- a very average 9.8). If the Wildcats offense is on from the tip off, this could be a big night for one or two Nova players...

Want to Beat DePaul? Then...
The leading indicator is again shot efficiency. Translate FGAs into points and the Wildcats should win.
1. Hit your shots -- by far the single most significant factor. The Demon's defensive eFG% is 51.6 -- when their opponent scores at a rate >51.6 the Demons are 1-13. Villanova's offensive eFG% is 52.0 -- the Demons have not won a game this season when the opponent has shot 52.0.
2. Contest their shots -- the 'Cats have given a few poor shooting teams very big nights (Rutgers). Holding down the scoring efficiencies for Tucker, Koshwal and especially Walker (their 3 point shooting wing) can work to close the Blue Demons out early. When DePaul shoots to Villanova's defensive eFG% (47.0) or lower, they are 6-12.
3. Get the 2nd Chance Opportunities -- a secondary marker for DePaul is opponent's rebounding rate. As suggested earlier, the Blue Demons are not especially strong rebounders under the opponent's basket. Villanova's offensive rebounding rate is 36.7 -- when the 'Cats rebound 36.7% or more of their misses, they have a 12-0 record. In games where their opponents have rebounded at Villanova's rate or better, the Demons are 4-14.

Finally...
...When playing on the road the Wildcats have usually let the home team get an early lead. While DePaul has not shown it can close out any opponent in the last six weeks, the Wildcats have climbed back into a game after an early misstep. There should be room for an error early, though it would be disappointing to see the squad let down. This might be a good game for Scottie and Pena to work themselves back into form, and to see if Anderson and Clark can keep their focus. The Demons are in a soul crushing place. They have virtually no chance for post season play, and after being pounded for six weeks, they may even wonder if they can put together two decent halves of the kind of basketball they would like to play.

Per Ken Pomeroy's Villanova Team Page, this game should go for about 67 possessions (average for D1, within the Demon's comfort zone), with Nova taking a 16 point decision. Villanova has had a difficult time winning those "expected to win" games by the projected margin (they save the blowouts for the unexpected games...). I will interested to see if they play up to expectations, or down to the competition.

Other Previews...
The DePaul website has an html-formatted preview and a (much) more detailed pdf-formatted preview.
Nova News produced a game preview.

Syracuse #02 Post Game -- Sweeping Out the Dome

For the second consecutive game the Wildcats went off script on their possessions. And for the second time they won, only this time the Nova Nation did not have to hold it's collective breath as the clock wound down. The official website has the AP wire story & the official box score. The breakdown by halves...

Opponent	Syracuse
	1st	2nd	Game
Pace	34.8	41.2	76.0
	Offense				Defense
	1st	2nd	Game		1st	2nd	Game
Rating	132.1	104.4	117.1		114.9	111.7	113.2
eFG%	62.9	53.3	58.2		65.5	46.3	54.3
TORate	14.4	26.7	21.1		23.0	17.0	19.7
OR%	41.2	38.9	40.0		21.4	44.4	36.6
FTA/FGA	35.5	50.0	42.6		10.3	26.8	20.0
FTM/FGA	22.6	36.7	29.5		6.9	19.5	14.3
ARate	76.5	53.3	65.6		81.3	62.5	71.9
Blk%	12.9	6.7	9.8		3.4	0.0	1.4
Stl%	5.8	9.7	8.0		14.1	9.7	11.7
PPWS	1.27	1.16	1.21		1.31	1.00	1.12
2FG%	54.5	54.2	54.3		83.3	52.6	64.5
3FG%	55.6	33.3	46.7		35.3	27.3	30.8
FT%	72.7	70.0	71.9		85.7	76.2	78.6
%2FG	35.3	57.9	47.2		53.8	39.0	47.3
%3FG	17.6	23.7	20.8		34.6	22.0	29.0
%FT	47.1	18.4	31.9		11.5	39.0	23.7

Half Time Adjustments...
The first half was a horse race, won by the Wildcats, not by more efficient shooting, but by the better turnover differential, getting to the line and offensive rebounding -- 2nd chance opportunities (see table, green highlight). The Wildcat's offensive efficiency, at 132.1, was well above their adjusted efficiency (111.7), even as their defensive efficiency, 114.9, was on schedule to be one of their worst of the season (certainly among those games they won). The interesting shooting stat for Syracuse was 2FGMs (83.3 on 10-12 -- not a typo) versus their 3FGMs (35.3 on 6-17). So why did the Orange keep shooting 3s? I don't know, but that has to go down as one of the great half-time adjustments that was not made, as the Orange came out and did essentially the same thing in the 2nd half -- out of 41 FGAs, 22 were 3s (6-22) and 19 were 2s (10-19). Consider that had they reversed the ratio (with the same accuracy) they would have won the game. By the single point projected by Pomeroy's efficiency differential. Villanova's accuracy from inside the arc was consistent from half-to-half. Unlike Cuse, Nova did shift (very slightly) to take more FGAs inside. It was a good decision as their accuracy from beyond the arc declined rather significantly. Ordinarily Villanova looks for about 1 in 4 points to come from 3FGMs, the distributional shift from 3s to FTMs was due more to not taking the 3FGAs.

Like the Philadelphia tilt, the Orange were down, but not out. They retook the lead with a 19-9 run over the first 7½ minutes of the second half, but could not hold it as the 'Cats outscored them 32-27 over the final 12½ minutes. A final rush over the last 1:14 minutes had the Orange outscore the Wildcats 7-4 in sequence uncomfortably reminescent of Syracuse-Georgetown game of the previous weekend. Except the 'Cats made their shot (though they suddenly could not get the ball over the mid-court stripe...), and the Orange, with 4 missed 3FGAs in the last 10 seconds unable to put the game into overtime. .

Notes
1. On a day when Scottie Reynolds was strangely quiet and Dante Cunningham uncharacteristically inefficient offensively, senior Dwayne Anderson stepped into the breech. Anderson cracked the starting lineup last season when he decided to dial back his 3s in favor of defense and rebounding. Today he dusted off his shot and dropped 22 points on the Orange by shooting 8-14 (4-6, 4-8) & 2-3 in a very balanced attack. Anderson's eFG% was 71.4; his PPWS was 1.43, both very efficient and proficient. Anderson also pulled down 5 rebounds (2-3-5) while dishing 2 assists and grabbing a steal.
2. Shane Clark came within 2 rebs of recording his 2nd double-double of the season as he scored a season high 15 points to pair with his 8 (5-3-8) rebounds. Clark's board contribution nearly overshadowed his scoring, as he again demonstrated his ability to dominate the offensive boards. He logged an outstanding 18.4% of the offensive rebounds. Shane logged an eFG% of 75.0 to go with a PPWS of 1.52. He added 2 assists (and 2 turnovers) in another well-timed productive outing.
3. The Corey Fisher-Jonny Flynn playoff was clearly won by the Wildcat...

	Pts	FGM	FGA	3FGM	3FGA	eFG%	PPWS
Fish	16	5	6	1	1	91.7	1.72
Flynn	12	5	17	2	8	35.3	0.69

Corey F. again scored 16 points in 24 minutes of play. He appeared motivated by the ultra-competitive point guard from Syracuse.
4. Cunningham, Reynolds and Anderson served as the first 3 options on offense, with Corey Stokes a not especially efficient 4th option, followed by the very efficient Clark and Fisher. A very efficient Reggie Redding stepped back, taking only 9% of the available shots he nevertheless scored 11 points on 3-5 (0-1, 3-3) and 5-6 shooting. He also posted an outstanding eFG% (60.0) and PPWS (1.40). Reggie dished a team high 7 assists (against only 1 turnover) and grabbed 6 steals.
5. The minutes distribution was a bit uneven as the staff went with a 9 man rotation. Tchuisi and Pena saw just a bit time (0 and 5 minutes respectively), while four of the other 7 (Anderson, Cunningham, Redding and Clark) took 30+ minutes and Corey Stokes took an unusually low (for him) 13 minutes. The surprise however were the minutes allocated to Reynolds and Fisher. Both took minutes in the low 20s (Reynolds -- 23, Fisher -- 24).

Ref Notes
James Breeding, Ed Corbett and Curtis Shaw comprised the crew on Sunday. Compared to the Center affair, this game was positively gentlemanly, as the teams were whistled for a combined 38 fouls. All three crew members were able to get through the entire game. The 'Cats again benefited from the foul/FTA differential, though their numbers were within the standard deviation. Syracuse might feel shortchanged as their FTAs, at 14, were 10 below the average for home teams this season (just on the low side of the standard deviation).

Other recaps/analysis
Borrowing a leaf from Pete's notebook, Nova News has posted a teaser recap with the promise of more later (an special Oscar edition Tim?).
Before turning the keys to the kingdom back to a traveling Mike, Ed'77 over at VUhoops.com took one last turn with an indepth recap of the game. Good job Ed.
Chris over at IBBW was first to post with a recap/analysis that took note of individual players on both teams. Putting the ball in Scottie's hands at the end of the game is a predictable strategy Chris, even the Orange know the inbounds pass is going to him. Scottie's attempts to dribble through the double team is a calculated risk intended (much like driving the baseline with the clock running down) to draw contact and get the foul call. Sometimes it works and sometimes it doesn't. If the trap is good (those traps were) then the someone has to go to Scottie and take a pass. Preferably someone who can hit a foul shot (because that will come next).
Publisher over at Villanova Viewpoint posted a detailed recap that identified senior Dwayne Anderson, along with junior Reggie Redding as the difference makers.

Marquette #02 Post Game: Gimme an O!

The Wildcats extended their Pavilion-based winning streak to 26 tonight as they downed the Warriors of Marquette University, 102-84. The ESPN recap says the 'Cats Spanked Marquette. I am frankly at a bit of a loss to describe the game. I watched it and have looked over the box score and I don't quite know how to describe the 18 point margin of victory that the 'Cats just posted. Marquette is a good team that matches up well with Villanova. They are lightening quick & when they shoot the lights out they are unstoppable. I know this because I have watched more than a few Marquette games this season. So ESPN's Dana Pennet O'Neil, in her Instant Analysis, said the game was won "in a blur".

The breakdown by halves...

Opponent	Marquette
	1st	2nd	Game
Pace	38.8	38.3	77.1
	Offense				Defense
	1st	2nd	Game		1st	2nd	Game
Rating	128.9	135.7	132.3		116.1	101.8	109.0
eFG%	59.2	84.0	69.0		69.0	51.8	60.5
TORate	10.3	18.3	14.3		23.2	10.4	16.9
OR%	33.3	18.2	28.1		26.7	10.5	17.6
FTA/FGA	21.1	72.0	41.3		34.5	60.7	47.4
FTM/FGA	13.2	40.0	23.8		17.2	35.7	26.3
ARate	47.4	77.8	62.2		68.8	76.9	72.4
Blk%	5.3	4.0	4.8		3.4	10.7	7.0
Stl%	2.6	13.0	7.8		7.7	0.0	3.9
PPWS	1.20	1.55	1.35		1.33	1.08	1.20
2FG%	54.5	70.6	61.5		57.1	50.0	52.9
3FG%	43.8	75.0	54.2		53.3	37.5	47.8
FT%	62.5	55.6	57.7		50.0	58.8	55.6

Halftime Adjustments...
The 1st half started badly as the Golden Eagles hit back-to-back 3s to start the game. After a brief back-and-forth, the Eagles hit a 20-11 run to go up 32-27 on the Wildcats. The 'Cats closed out the half with a 23-13 run to go up by 5 (50-45) going into the locker room. For the Nova Nation there were many things, mostly on the offensive side of the ball, to like -- the 'Cats were hitting their shots, limiting their turnovers. If their offensive rebounding was not up to standard, it was not terrible either. About the only area of concern was free throws, but the Eagles were not hitting their FTs, so the two squads nearly negated the other on the line. The defensive side of the ball however, was a mixed bag. If the Eagles were shooting the lights out, they were not rebounding, giving up the ball, and not getting to the line as frequently as anticipated. As a follow on to the keys to the game portion of the preview note the red highlighted sections in the table (above). The Wildcats needed to keep Marquette's eFG% under 50.0, and they didn't do it in either half. Marquette was unable to supplement their long range shooting with trips to the line -- a good sign for the 'Cats.

The 2nd half may not have been quite to Nova's standards foro defense, it nevertheless reflected a number of adjustments installed at the half. The 'Cats contested the Eagles shooting much better, on both 2 and 3 point attempts (but much better on the 3s), slicing the Eagles' conversion rate by 17%. Coupled with an even tighter grip on their defensive boards (something of a shock to Marquette, which usually rebounds about 35+% of their misses), reducing their second chances to 10.5% of the Eagles' misses, forced a major reduction in Marquette's offensive efficiency. If the Warriors had difficulty keeping up with the 'Cats in the 1st half, they lost contact completely in the 2nd half, dropping behind by nearly 20 several times. If Villanova could not keep Marquette off the line, the Warriors did not help themselves by converting at a <60% rate.

Notes
1. The seniors, Dwayne Anderson and Shane Clark are on a tear. The two played a combined 39 minutes last night, scoring 26 points and nabbing 10 rebounds. They dished 4 assists, committed a single turnover and blocked a shot. Nice way to fill a perceived void in the frontcourt. Shane individually had a supurb game, posting an eFG% of 125.0 (extremely rare, due in large measure to his perfect 6-6 from the field) and equally extraordinary 2.30 PPWS.
2. Scottie Reynolds posted a balanced 27 points in 35 minutes of play. Reynolds sank 4 of 9 FGAs (2 from beyond the arc) to post 11 points in the 1st half. He added another 16 in the 2nd half on 6 of 8 shooting (3 3 pointers). He posted a 73.5 eFG% and a 1.39 PPWS, both strong indications of very efficient scoring. Scottie also had 4 rebounds and an assist.
3. Corey Fisher is really coming on. He scored 21 points in 6-10 shooting (4-6 from beyond the arc) to post an eFG% of 80.0 and a PPWS of 1.58, both outstanding efforts.
4. The Wildcat's offense went through Reynolds (30% of the available shots), then Cunningham (23%), the Anderson/Clark duo (about 20%) and then Fisher (20%) -- not a bad set of scoring threats. Combined they hit 64.7% of their shots. Tough to win against those numbers.
5. In the 1st Marquette post game I noted that James and McNeal provided 30% of the FGAs when they were on the floor with individual eFG%s of >50.0. The 'Cats shut McNeal down. The Marquette guard took 37% of the shots when he was on the floor, but could convert with only a 47.5 eFG%. Junior Lazar Hayward combined with Dominic James to provide solid 2nd and 3rd option scoring. They posted an eFG% of 62.5 and 63.6 respectively. McNeal, on his way to breaking Marquette's 40 year old scoring record (George Thompson, 1,773 points), McNeal seemed more like the player from 1 or 2 seasons ago, rather than the efficient scorer that emerged at the end of last season, and continued to progress this season. Congratulations to Jerel on breaking the record.
6. Reggie Redding stepped back from scoring to dish 6 assists (and 4 turnovers...), grabbed 6 rebounds to go with his block and steal.

Ref Notes
Given the foul fests of the past 2-3 games, this game's crew Jeff Clark, John Gaffney & Karl Hess were almost restrained with their whistles. "Only" 44 total fouls called suggests everyone behaved themselves, except for the double technicals called on Antonio Pena and Lazar Hayward about 5 minutes into the second half. To credit the zebras, the play was getting pretty intense as the 'Cats were holding onto a 10 point lead with the Warriors charging hard to close the gap. Play had stopped when Antonio put a hard (but clean) foul Jimmy Butler to prevent an uncontested putback. The squads had been simmering for most of the game, but the boil started as Pena walked through the Marquette squad to get to the 'Cats assembling at the key. A look at the body language of both squads had the refs blowing whistles and Scottie and another Wildcat stepping between bodies and escorting Tone out of harm's way. The fouls continued as the game, by it's nature, was physical, but the focus was back on the game. The crew and senior leades of both squads defused what could have become an ugly incident. Marquette's FTAs, at 27, was right at the high edge. Had they hit a few more of their free throws (they shot a very ugly 55.6%) they would have broken through the standard deviation.

Roster Report
Senior Dwayne Anderson left the game in the first half with what appeared to be a knee injury. He later returned to the bench with his left knee wrapped with an ice pack. Speculation over the seriousness of the injury stopped when Villanova announced an MRI revealed that the knee had been hyperextended and had suffered a bone bruise. Anderson is not expected to play Friday against West Virginia, and will be evaluated day-to-day as the condition of his knee will be monitored. Speediest of recoveries Dwayne.

Recaps/Analysis
Tim over at Nova News Blog posted an early recap with comments about most of the players.
Pete provides player grades over at Let's Go Nova.
The NBE Blogger posted a game recap.
Chris over at posted a good recap with thoughts about each player.

Syracuse Post Game -- Consistency

For the second consecutive game the Wildcats went off script on their possessions. And for the second time they won, only this time the Nova Nation did not have to hold it's collective breath as the clock wound down. The official website has the AP wire story & the official box score. The breakdown by halves...

Opponent	Syracuse
	1st	2nd	Game
Pace	42.8	39.8	82.6
	Offense				Defense
	1st	2nd	Game		1st	2nd	Game
Rating	123.9	123.1	123.5		88.9	118.1	102.9
eFG%	58.3	61.7	59.8		43.8	47.4	46.0
TORate	11.7	30.1	20.6		30.4	7.5	19.4
OR%	26.3	61.1	43.2		33.3	35.7	34.8
FTA/FGA	38.9	60.0	48.5		104.2	43.6	66.7
FTM/FGA	30.6	40.0	34.8		70.8	25.6	42.9
ARate	78.9	47.1	63.9		66.7	66.7	66.7
Blk%	2.8	0.0	1.5		4.2	7.7	6.3
Stl%	4.7	12.6	8.5		18.7	2.5	10.8
PPWS	1.24	1.27	1.26		1.06	1.00	1.02

Half Time Adjustments...
The first half was eerily similar to last Wednesday's Providence game -- efficient offense and tight defense. The Wildcat's offensive efficiency, at 123.9, was well above their adjusted efficiency (111.7), even as their defensive efficiency, 88.9, was just above their season adjusted efficiency (87.8). The first half was disjointed, a bit chaotic, largely because of the whistles. Nearly 1 in 3 possessions was interrupted with a change of possession due to a called foul. Possibly the undermanned crew felt a need to maintain tighter control over play. Rick Jackson and Andy Rautins between them, took half of Syracuse's FGAs, and a third more than Flynn and Harris combined. That was a bad sign for the Orange. For Villanova meanwhile, FGAs were nearly evenly divided between Anderson, Cunningham (of course) and the Coreys, Fisher & Stokes. A good sign for the 'Cats, and one reason they went to the half up by 15. I have shaded in green the elements that were at or ahead of the season numbers, and in red those that fell short.

While the Orange were able to cut the Wildcat's lead to to 10 or 11 six times during the second half, they were never able to get it into single digits. Every time they made a push, the 'Cats answered with a push back. Five times the 'Cats bumped the lead to 19-21, but the Orange would not fold. The preview posted late last week noted that shooting efficiency (eFG%), pace, getting to the line and offensive rebounding rates (OR%) might serve as keys to a win (or loss). The results were admittedly mixed, but suggest the 'Cats have work to do on the defensive side of the ball, especially when they pile up big leads before the half.

Notes
1. Dante Cunningham matched his season & career high for points scored (31), and came within a rebound of logging another double-double. On a day when Onuaku was limping and Jackson was throttled with fouls, Dante stepped up as the first option on offense. He hit 12 of 15 and added another 7 at the free throw line. Cunningham's FTRate was 80.0, suggesting he got to the line 4 times for every 5 FGAs. No doubt taking some credit for sitting Jackson and sub forward Kristof Ongenaet down.
2. Shane Clark recorded his first double-double of the season as he scored a season high 14 points to go with his 10 (7-3-10) rebounds. Clark's board contribution included those 7 offensive rebounds, an unusual achievement. Clark added 3 assists and 2 blocked shots to the cause.
3. Corey Fisher scored 14 points in 23 minutes of play. He continues his run of tremendous efforts with 5-9 shooting, producing an eFG% of 55.6 & a PPWS of 1.23. Heady play has become the hallmark of his his recent surge. At the 2:55 mark of the 1st half with Villanova leading 43-29, Fisher avoided a mid-court corner trap, crossed the line and passed to Corey Stokes at Nova's 3 point line. As Fisher ran left, Cunningham moved out to the key to set a pick for Stokes, who instead took the ball to his right and headed to the lane and the cup (who said the guy had no handle?). Stokes' missed shot, was rebounded by Onuaku who (having the good sense to stay between Cunningham and the basket) tossed the pass to Flynn on the left side. In stepped Fisher to take that pass and drop the layup through for 2 points & push the lead back out to 16. About 17 seconds later Harris penetrated the Orange lane and kicked the ball back out to Ongenaet waiting at the top of the key to take the three. Again Fisher stepped in to tip the pass, and the spread out on the floor to try and take the now loose ball. He could not gain possession, but did tip it again over to another 'Cat, also laid out on the floor scrambling for the ball. The 'Cats are up by 16 mind you. Villanova basketball. Oh, and he grabbed 4 rebounds and dished 6 assists.
4. Cunningham, Reynolds and Fisher served as the first 3 options on offense, with Shane Clark and Corey Stokes taking an even percentage of the shots (20%). Anderson and Redding stepped back this game, though between them they were 6-11 from the field. The interchangability on offense, with each of those six taking alternate "first wave" roles over the past 4 games has to be encouraging to the staff; and a nightmare for game opponent's game preparation.
5. The minutes were distributed in a surprisingly even fashion, with Stokes and Clark drawing 27 minutes apiece, Redding, Reynolds and Anderson drawing 26 minutes apiece. Fisher logged 23 minutes, and Dante Cunningham took 37 (Pena received a 9 minute run). Though the camera did not pan the bench often, when it did it appeared that all members of the squad were focused on the game. I did not notice any sulking.

Ref Notes
The crew, Jim Haney, Curtis Shaw and Mike Stephens, was a bit undermanned for much of the game as Jim Haney came up gimpy 5 minutes into the 1st half. As it was they had their hands full, whistling the Wildcats for an astonishing 29 fouls, 15 in the first half alone. Were Shaw and Stephens compensating for the absence of Jim Haney? It is hard to know, except that this was by far the most fouls awarded to the Orange this season. If the Providence game had 50 called fouls, this one went 3 better, setting a new season high (one "standard" I hope the 'Cats don't try to exceed). The zebras were not kind to the Wildcats at all, giving the Orange 42 FTAs, by far the most for an opponent all season (and remember the 'Cats have already played Connecticut), and more than Nova has gotten. Indeed the FTAs were well outside the standard deviation for FTAs to an opponents at a home game. No one can suggest the Wildcats had home cooking today. The only other notable was the technical called on Syracuse point guard Jonny Flynn, who was no doubt frustrated by the turn of events.

Other recaps/analysis
Nova News has posted a recap piece. (Good work Tim).
VUhoops.com posted a recap.
Mike Sheridan's post game notes.
Axeman's recap/commentary -- a Syracuse-centric look at the game. A number of good things to say about Villanova.

Post Game: Fordham -- Triple Digit Scoring!

Post titles from the Villanova blogosphere provide a good idea of what happened in the Pavilion earlier this evening...from Tim over at Nova News -- "Villanova Slaughters Rams". The boys over at the I Bleed Blue and White blog -- "Villanova Destroys Fordham 107-68". The official website was a bit more restrained in their lede from the AP wirestory, "Wildcats Easily Win Over Fordham, 107-68". The Villanova post offense led by Dante Cunningham, hammered the Fordham Rams in the Pavilion earlier this evening. Cunningham scored a career high 31 points in 29 minutes of play. This was Dante's third double-double at Villanova, but definitely his most dominant. Fordham forward Chris Bethel never knew what hit him as Dante scored at the 18:14 mark of the first half and didn't stop until Coach Wright removed him (for the last time) at the 7:27 mark of the second half. The official box score is available at official website.The breakdown by halves...

Opponent	Fordham
	1st	2nd	Game
Pace	40.9	32.5	73.4
	Offense				Defense
	1st	2nd	Game		1st	2nd	Game
Rating	136.5	154.2	144.4		93.4	94.2	93.7
eFG%	62.5	66.1	64.2		40.3	43.1	41.5
TORate	12.2	12.1	12.1		9.8	22.0	15.2
OR%	33.3	53.8	42.9		19.2	36.8	26.7
FTA/FGA	59.4	60.7	60.0		33.3	20.7	27.7
FTM/FGA	50.0	50.0	50.0		25.0	17.2	21.5
ARate	72.2	58.8	65.7		41.7	63.6	52.2
Blk%	6.3	0.0	3.3		2.8	3.4	3.1
Stl%	0.0	3.0	1.3		2.5	15.7	8.3

A young Fordham team that pushed the pace at every opportunity was burned...repeatedly. Villanova posted phenominal offensive numbers (the left half of the table above...), the defense however, appeared to be due as much to Rams' inexperience as the 'Cats defense. Villanova defended the perimeter very well, limiting Fordham to a 30.8% shooting percentage. Comparing the defensive stats, first half to second half, it was apparent that Villanova's aggressive defense came out of the half-time talk. Fordham turned over 9.8% of their first half possessions (little pressure on the ball...), up to 22.0% in the second half (more consistent with pressure on the ball). The same half-over-half improvement is present in the Stl% and the Blk% stats. The exception was offensive rebounding. The Rams rebounded their misses at roughtly twice the rate as they did in the first half.

Notes & Observations
1. The attention on Cunningham obscures the phenominal efficiency at which Corey Stokes is scoring. Stokes posted identical 91.7% eFG% rates in the first two games. That's an outstandingly efficient scoring rate. Stokes has scored 30 points over the past two games on 6-7 3 point shooting, and a surprisingly less successful 2-5 at 2 point FGAs. He has been perfect from the line...
2. The Villanova frontcourt rotation (Cunningham, Pena, Tchuisi and Clark) scored 53 of Nova's 107 points on 20-30 shooting from the field. Those four went 13-17 from the line too.
3. All five starters scored double digit points. But unlike the Albany game, only the two Coreys (Fisher and Stokes) saw 30 minutes or more of playing.
4. The staff used ten players again in this game, giving eight of them more than ten minutes apiece.

Ref Notes
The zebra crew, Jeff Clark, Pat Driscoll, and Earl Walton, are a veteran crew that have monitored multiple Villanova games virtually every year. This game saw a good many foul calls, a bit atypical for these three referees (maybe not Driscoll...). What was unusual was the number of calls that went Villanova's way. Driscoll and Walton staffed crews have tended to award more free throws to Villanova's opponents. Not this game.

Roster Notes
1. Shane Clark returned to play just 11 (or so) days after anthroscopic surgery to clear his right knee. Shane played 16 minutes, scoring 8 points while pulling down a rebound. Welcome back Shane!
2. Casiem Drummond dressed but did not play. The staff made a game-time decision not to use him given tenderness in his foot. No word on his status for the Niagara game Wednesday.
3. Dwayne Anderson was DNP. A foot injury sidelined him for the second game. No word on his return.

2007-08 Villanova Inside Out

I used the past two posts to look at 40 of the most "outside" and "inside" Big East players last season. I applied a 35% playing time as a filter. Three Wildcats showed up on those lists -- Corey Stokes, Dante Cunningham and Antonio Pena -- but what of the other nine scholarship players? Four Wildcats (Malcolm Grant, Andrew Ott, Cas Drummond and Frank Tchuisi) did not log enough time (< 35.0% of the available playing time...) to be considered with the other Big East players while the other five (Corey Fisher, Dwayne Anderson, Scottie Reynolds, Shane Clark and Reggie Redding) were ranked by both Pomeroy and Pelton.

						In/Out		Rank
Player	Min	Min%	FGA	3FGA	FTA	KPom	Pelton	Pelton	KPom
Corey Stokes	642	45.9	202	135	42	-46.0	-14.5	7	5
M. Grant	367	26.2	118	73	44	-24.6	-7.9	NA	NA
Corey Fisher	745	53.2	294	124	79	-15.3	-6.0	30	37
D. Anderson	630	45.0	145	66	43	-15.9	-3.7	37	35
S. Reynolds	1139	81.3	398	206	190	-4.0	-1.4	46	46
Shane Clark	713	50.9	180	56	63	3.9	1.0	58	59
R. Redding	723	51.6	140	36	68	22.9	4.4	74	79
Andrew Ott	16	1.1	4	1	2	25.0	6.3	NA	NA
Cunningham	1050	75.0	261	0	116	44.4	11.0	92	93
Drummond	278	19.9	82	0	36	43.9	12.9	NA	NA
Antonio Pena	678	48.4	183	6	96	49.2	13.3	97	97
F. Tchuisi	13	0.9	6	0	4	66.7	30.8	NA	NA

I have the players listed in "Outside to Inside" order, ie, Corey Stokes heads the list because his shot selection & frequency of free throw suggest his is the greatest tendency to play on the wing/back court. The lower in the list the greater the tendency to play on the inside. Note that Andrew Ott and Malcolm Grant transferred out of the program, to Penn State and Miami (Fla) respectively. Ott will be eligible to play at the end of the fall 2008 semester, while Grant will be eligible to play in the 2009-10 season.

Notes & Observations...
1. The Pelton/Pomeroy rankings for the Villanova players are relatively close, unlike Byron Joynes (see the inside players post), with Scottie Reynolds and Antonio Pena hitting dead-on in both lists. The greatest disparity is Corey Fisher, who is listed seven positions apart in the two lists.
2. That the players always rated as outside (a value <0) or inside (a value > 0) is hardly surprising as both formulas subtract 3 point attempts (3FGAs) from free throw attempts (FTAs). In addition to suggesting where the player takes his field goal attempts, the operation also implies something about the amount of contact the player takes as part of his game. The assumption (true for the most part) is that the more the player "works" inside the paint the more frequent the contact (and subsequent free throw attempts). In Villanova's case there are few surprises; the guards & wings tend to have negative values while power/big forwards and centers tend to have positive numbers. Clark's rating of 1.0 is pretty consistent with his role as an inside players who switches between the #3 and #4 depending on who else is on the court too. Reggie Redding's reluctance to shoot 3s (he took about 25% of his FGAs as 3s) stands in stark contrast to back court mates Scottie Reynolds, Corey Fisher, Corey Stokes and Malcolm Grant who took between 42% (Fisher) and 67% (Stokes) of their FGAs as 3s. While Reggie took very few shots from the outside, his reputation as an overall reluctant shooter was sealed last season as his FGAs declined from November to March, from 5.4 in OOC games to 3.6 in Big East play, down to 1.4 in the postseason.
3. Scottie Reynolds (-1.4 on the Pelton Scale) and Shane Clark (1.0 on the Pelton Scale) are the players operating closest to neutral, showing the smallest bias to play either inside (Clark) or outside (Reynolds). Given that each had a 3 point jumper in his offensive repertoire (), disabuses any notions of either being a reluctant shooter. Clark was less involved in the offense than I anticipated during the preseason however. I believed he would assume a "regular/sharter" type role, taking about 20% or so of the available shots when he was playing. And he did during the OOC part of the schedule. But he seemed to again be slowed by a physical condition once the Big East season was under way. The timing was unfortunate as Drummond was sidelined with a foot injury.

Villanova Efficiency Usage -- Thoughts on 2008-09

Looking at the Villanova roster for next season and reading through Pomeroy's "Effective Usage" article naturally brought me to the queston of which players will assume what roles next season. The roster and circumstances offer a rare opportunity, because while the slate of opponents will change (a good deal less than one might imagine, given the 18 game Big East schedule on top of the 4 game round robin format for the City Series...that's 22 games out of 29 that don't change from seaon to season), the team (Malcolm Grant excepted and Acts of God, unknown at this point) will return except where noted, intact. Maurice Sutton will most likely not (exigent circumstances excepted) have much (if any) opportunity to demonstrate he is indeed the Nova Nation's much pined for "man in the middle". The Wildcats will most likely play the hand they were dealt -- from last season.

I have reproduced the rotation (players who logged 10% or more of the available minutes at their position) from last season, along with each player's playing time as a percentage of the available minutes at their position (Min%), the percentage of possessions they had (Poss%) and Offensive Rating (ORtg). The last set of columns ("Avg.", "25-75", "5-95", "Diff?" all ordered under the heading "2008-09 Projected") is drawn from the charts Pomeroy reproduced for his article, "Effective Usage" over at The Basketball Prospectus last October:

	2007-08			|----2008-09 Projected----|
Name	Min%	Poss%	ORtg	Avg.	25-75	5-95	Diff?
Dante Cunningham	75.0	19.0	104.1	19.5	17-21	15-24	No
Shane Clark	50.9	16.8	111.1	17.5	15-18	13.5-22	No
Reggie Redding	51.6	14.2	99.7	15.0	13-16	11-19	Yes (+)
Casiem Drummond	19.9	21.4	104.4	21.5	19-24	16-26.5	Yes (+)
Dwayne Anderson	45.1	15.3	114.9	16.0	15-18	13-22	Yes (-)
Scottie Reynolds	81.4	25.1	105.6	24.5	23-26.5	19.5-30	Yes (-)
Corey Fisher	53.1	25.5	94.1	24.5	23-26.5	19.5-30	NA
Malcolm Grant	26.2	21.6	113.2	NA	NA	NA	NA
Antonio Pena	48.4	21.5	95.4	21.5	19-24	16-26.5	NA
Corey Stokes	45.9	17.6	101.6	18.5	14.5-20.5	14-24	NA

Pomeroy correlated the percentage of possessions a player used in year N by the percentage of possessions he used in year N-1. Determining an "average" percentage of possessions, he was then able to develop the range of possessions (to 50% certainty 25-75, and 90% certainty 5-95) for the same class of players. Assuming his calculations hold for this next season (they seemed to hold for last season, exceptions noted below), then we can anticipate the approximate percentage of possessions for the rotation next season. For Dante Cunningham, who used 19% of the possessions (earning him a "regular/starter" role on last season's Wildcat squad...), we find by looking under the heading "2008-09 Projected" that players using a similar percentage of possessions on average used 19.5% of the possessions the next season. To a 50% certainty they consumed in the range of 17% to 21% of the team's possessions (a marginal starter to solid starter role) and to a 90% certainty they used in the range of 15% to 24% (role player role to borderline go-to guy role) of their team's possessions (when they were in the game...). Pomeroy also detmined possessions for year N+1, based on year N as well. My last column indicates whether the 1 and 2 year charts agree with respect to the particular player (juniors and seniors only), and if not, I indicate whether the average from 3 year chart showed an average higher or lower than the 2 year chart.

Growth in the percentage of possessions (and Shot%, hence the enlarged role within the offense...) is largely due to minutes that become available when players leave (graduate, exhaust eligibility, become injured and move on to the NBA). Few opportunities spontaneously open because someone suddenly got very good in practice. As Pomeroy put it:

...Players do jump from being decoys to go-to guys in one season, and some even regress...Those are the exceptions. By and large, a player's role on his team in one season is a good indicator of his role the following season. It's largely on that principle that the team previews are based...
- Ken Pomeroy, Effective Usage, 10/10/07

The only block of "unclaimed" possessions (and minutes) come from Malcolm Grant's transfer. And while his transfer is disappointing to this Villanova fan, the actual loss quantified is something on the order of about 157 (credited) points scored (out of a total of 2,547 team points) on 137 possessions (out of 2,428 total possessions). Not a lot of opportunities to prove yourself, especially if you are trying to impress the coaching staff and earn more playing time. If the team is to improve on the 2007-08 results, the players who make the rotation will have to use their possessions more efficiently than last season. They will have to score more consistently on the possessions they get.

Rising Juniors
I believe the trendline will hold for Dante Cunningham and Shane Clark. Their Poss% may grow modestly (see the Avg. column above) and they should, as seniors, outperform their ORtgs from this past season.
While Dante Cunningham's growth in possessions from his freshman to sophomore years was just outside (high side) of the 5-95 confidence interval, his growth slowed measurably last sesson, staying in the predicted range. The loss in ORtg was modest, and frankly common when the growth in any player's Poss% is factored in. There is no reason, based on his performance last season, to believe Dante has yet one more "growth spurt" in him.
Shane Clark has garnered about 16% of the possessions in each of the past 2 seasons. As with Cunningham, the trend appears to be pretty much set. The fans have seen the same player start relatively strong in the beginning and fade as the season moves into conference play. Unlike his sophomore season, we did see a resurgence at the end of the 2007-08 season, but the mid-season malaise set the tone for the entire team's slump. A borderline breakout, 95^th percentile growth in role would put Shane at 22% for Poss%, about at Pena's level of involvement, and nowhere near the "go-to guy" role of Scottie or Corey Fisher. If he could maintain his scoring efficiency (with a Poss% of 22), that would constitute a very good season. But given the potential of the other members of the squad, I don't expect it. Last season, with the loss of Sumpter and competition from a freshman and historical bench players, Shane had an opening to make the job (and role) his, but he didn't. He may, like Mike Nardi who had similar durability problems, finish out his career with the numbers of a solid contributor, but his most valuable contribution may be the intangibles, leadership and scrappy play, that don't translate easily into numbers.
Predicting the function Dwayne Anderson will have on next season's team is, given the dramatic change in his function this season, difficult to say the least. Injuries to Clark and Drummond in the days before the start of Big East play took the edge off the team's performance. Early Big East losses added to the (then) growing uncertainty about the team's prospects for the regular and post seasons. The staff turned to the leader of the scout team to inject some energy (and optimism?) into the starting line up and shore up the team's confidence. And Anderson stepped up with a series of steady performances that featured not only timely buckets, but (much needed) rebounding on both ends of the floor and a body-on-the-floor example for the freshmen to rally to. Paradoxically, while his playing time increased (nearly doubled actually) over 2006-07, his Poss% rate declined by just over 5%, even as his efficiency (ORtg) increased. The paradox is resolved by understanding that as a player becomes more selective in his scoring opportunities (and less conspicuous in the consumption of possessions) he greater success at scoring (and thereby more efficient)..The increase in playing time may have arisen frome exigent circumstances, but the staff must have liked what they saw. As for next season, the charts are contradictory. The one year chart indicates that on average, players who had Anderson's Poss% will decline very slightly, dipping to just under 15 (14.5 possibly?), while the two year chart indicates that players who had Anderson's sophomore possession rate (20.1), will, on average, have a Poss% of about 22. The "overlap" in the 2 charts falls in the 18-22 range, or borderline "regular" type possessions. Anderson provided solid rebounding support and a terrific on court example, I would not be surprisd to see him continue gathering 15 or so percent of the possessions ("role player" function) while playing in the 35%-40% range for that quality alone. He will remain a 4^th/5^th scoring option when he is teamed with some combination of the go-to guys (Reynolds & Fisher) and the obvious regulars (Cunningham, Stokes, Pena & Drummond).

Rising Sophomores
The prognosis for The Two Rs (Reggie Redding and Scottie Reynolds) ought to be "more of the same". When Pomeroy wrote about continuity of roles (function) he could have cited Reggie and Scottie as examples. From freshman to sophomore years both progressed almost exactly as averages of the cohort.
Scottie Reynold's Poss% declined slightly just as predicted. His minutes increased even as his possessions declined. The decline in Scottie's ORtg was unexpected and brought a down note to his season. For most players a decline in Poss% usually brings an increase (however slight) in the player's ORtg (see Dwayne Anderson below). The 2007-08 team lacked a second, very efficient "go-to guy" like Curt Sumpter, someone who could draw enough defensive attention to give Reynolds more room to operate.
Reggie Redding took 14.2% of the possessions when he played, in both his freshman and sophomore years. Projections (see the "Avg." column) suggest he will get a few more possessions next year, but I would not be at all surprised to see his Poss% stay very close to 14. When Redding is teamed with Reynolds and Fisher, the 'Cats need someone to set the screen, box out on the shot, or grab the ball...and pass it out to the open man. Reggie did improve his ORtg this season, coming very close to crossing that "one point per possession" threshold that brings credibility to a college player. Experience alone accounts for some of his progress (learning to deal with the nerves; when to shoot, when to pass...), but Reggie's ORtg climbed by 13%, suggesting the improvement may be more than just a year of experience. Another 13% increase next season and Redding will be an efficient role player. While his ORtg though improved, was still below the team ORtg, given the modest number of possessions, any impulse to assign blame for underperformance on Reggie is probably misplaced.
Casiem Drummond, like Dwayne, is an enigma. How he works into the team next season will depend not only on successful rehabilitation (and continued good health) of his foot, but also whether he comes back with the conditioning necessary to play Villanova basketball and if the staff maintains a commitment to utilize post passing and an inside offensive presence. Arriving out of shape his freshman year Cas was able to play only 10% of the available minutes while functioning as a role player within the offense. This past season, properly conditioned from an off season program, he posted break-out type numbers before injuring his foot in early December (late November?). And while he appeared in 13 games after leaving the Temple game (and started three of them), his effectiveness was clearly diminished. If healthy and effective Drum may not take a higher percentage of the possessions than he did this season (see table above), but he will get minutes because he can score consistently near the basket (or get to the line...) and also put up some very nice rebounding numbers, an area of weakness for the Wildcats last season.

Rising Freshmen
Attrition through transfer has already taken two of the five members of the class which started using it's eligibility in 2007. The three remaining were very well regarded coming in, and last season provided opportunities to see each at his best. Recognition and consistency are the key, but this is the group which can have the greatest positive impact on Villanova's ORtg...mostly because their individual ORtgs were low.
Many predicted Corey Fisher would start at #1 from the first game. Ironically Fisher missed the first game (versus Stony Brook), but he was the first in the group to start (versus Penn in early December). He went on to start 21 of the next 25 games before being brought off the bench for the 2 games in the BET and the 3 NCAA games. While Corey F. had some very good games (Penn -- 13 points on 4-9 shooting, DePaul - 23 points on 8-15 shooting; second Syracuse game -- 21 points on 7-15 shooting, etc.), he also had some stinkers (Georgetown -- 4 points on 1-16 shooting, though he did have 4 assists; Connecticut -- 5 points on 1-6 shooting with 4 assists, etc.). And he (along with Scottie Reynolds) showed a lack of maturity by being late to the team bus in Louisville. Coach Wright started neither, and kept Fisher on the bench for all but garbage time, as the 'Cats lost by 14. Fisher, a natural leader and creative passer took too many shots last season and hit far too few of them. Despite some decent assist numbers Fisher logged a 94.1 ORtg while consuming just about 1 in 4 possessions while he played. Scoring about 3.75 points for every 4 possessions while the team as a whole scored 4.16 points every 4 possessions suggests Fisher was a drag offensively on the unit. That he was able to log only 53% of the minutes available in a situation that was tailor-made for his talent and skills, suggests there was a good deal that was not working for Fisher last season. Assuming Corey F. will again be paired with Reynolds next season, look for him to repeat this past season's pattern and function as one of the (2) go-to guys when the team is on offense. Whether his Poss% declines slightly (anticipated outcome -- see Avg above) or grows to 30% (within the 95% certainty range) Fisher must convert his opportunities at a more efficient rate.
Antonio Pena was drafted into the starting rotation because of injuries to Casiem Drummond. Pena performed well, but unevenly as he managed to work himself into the offense as a regular type player, a 2^nd/3^rd option on offense. Whether he starts over Drummond or comes off the bench, Antonio will (if Drum is healthy) have to split the minutes at #5 with Cas and any minutes at #4 with Cunningham (and Anderson?). Like Fisher Pena took too many possessions to score that inefficiently (ORtg was 95.4). Unlike Anderson, Cunningham and Drummond, Pena has not exhibited especially strong rebounding skills for a big man either. Unlike the Villanova teams of 2004-06, last season's version of Wildcats did not feature a strong rebounding backcourt. Don't look for it to suddenly develop next season either. That makes this an essential skill for anyone playing in Villanova's frontcourt.
Corey Stokes looked dazed and confused for a good part of the season. The staff plugged him in and let him play through some pretty terrible games (1-6 versus George Mason, 1-8 versus Penn, 3-9 versus Louisville, 2-9 versus South Florida...), Stokes logged minutes in the mid and upper 30s (percent of the available playing time at his position), rising to about 45 by season's end with Poss% numbers which indicated he was functioning as a borderline regular in the offense. His shooting efficiency and ORtg also rose through the end of the season, both positive signs for this season. If Corey S. can start strong next season (ORtg >120) he may be able to push hard on the 95% confidence limit of 24% possessions. The average growth for a player with Corey's Poss% (17.6) is 18.5. Stokes has the fundamental skills to do better.

With no impact players due on the Mainline in the fall, the burden for growing the offense falls squarely on the shoulders of the returning rotation. Reallocating the playing time will most likely happen as the season progresses, but redistribution of possessions tends to occur only when one (or more) players becomes a lot better, ie the player scores more efficiently than his teammates. Candidates for biggest improvement (most improved ORtg) include Cas Drummond, Corey Fisher and Corey Stokes. One or all of them will have to improve if the Wildcats are to finish higher in the Big East and move deeper in the NCAA tournament.