Guest Contributor Ray Floriani: Champions Classic Recap

by Ray Floriani

NEW YORK CITY -- A very attractive way to start the season. The first Madison Square Garden doubleheader, in the newly renovated arena, featured four 'Fortune 500' programs. The Scores:

Duke	74		69	Michigan State
Kentucky	75		65	Kansas

The under card (Duke vs. Michigan State) was a drag-it-out two and a half hour affair. Duke opened a double digit lead in the second half but had to withstand a late Michigan State surge. The Blue Devils never lost the lead in the stretch and gave coach Mike Krzyzewski his 903rd win, a mark that broke his mentor Bobby Knight's record.

#903 in the books
Coach K meets the press

Possession and efficiency:

	Duke	Mich. St.
Possessions	72	80
Offensive Efficiency	103	86

Why eFG is important (to really know what is happening). Duke shot 41% from the floor. Not a very good showing. Calculating their eFG the Blue Devils were 56%. Quite a difference. The breakdown shows Duke was 7 of 18 (39%) from two point range but 10 of 21 (48%) from three. The hottest hand belonged to Andre Dawkins, 6 of 10 beyond the arc, en route to a game high 26 points.

Blue Devil ft rate (ftm/fga) was off the charts. Duke was 30 of 41 from the line giving them a FTR of 77%. Thirty free throws made to 17 field goals made for the Blue Devils. It was that type of night.

Duke's Ryan Kelly was impressive. He scored 14 points in 30 minutes with perfection as a shooter. Kelly was 3 of 3 from the field (2 for 2 from three) and 6 for 6 from the charity stripe. The 6-11 junior also did a fine defensive job on Draymond Green of Michigan State. Green scored 10 points but committed 5 turnovers and shot 4 of 15 from the field.

Michigan State was paced by sophomore guard Keith Appling with 22 points. Appling provided the offensive surge allowing the Spartans to make a late run.

The Spartans still must assess and address the turnovers situation. They had 21 for a ridiculously high 26% TO rate. "Duke's defense pressures you," Michigan State coach Tom Izzo said. "But some of those turnovers were our own doing."

Numbers also included 19,979. That was the attendance -- a sellout.

Kentucky players take the floor
getting well wishes
from their adoring fans

The Over Card
The Kentucky-Kansas battle was the proverbial tale of two halves. The Wildcats did a lot of good things defensively but the story of the game was their explosion on the offensive end. The following chart breaks down the efficiencies of the halves and ultimately the game.

	Efficiency by...
	1st	2nd	Game
Kentucky	76	121	99
Kansas	80	100	90

The final possession total saw Kentucky with 76 and Kansas 72. A rather brisk pace indeed. Wildcats had a 25% turnover rate but did shoot the ball well (58$ eFG percentage) while limiting Kansas to a paltry 37% mark. Doron Lamb led Kentucky with 17 points and was 3 of 5 beyond the arc. Wildcats used some good ball movement the second half to give perimeter shooters some uncontested looks. Tyshawn Taylor of Kansas led all scorers with 22 points. Taylor penetrated well and got to the line. The junior guard did his damage on the line going 15 of 17. From the field he was only 3 of 13. Kansas, in fact, did a good job of penetrating but had virtually no mid-range or deep perimeter game to speak of.

John Calipari's club shared the wealth as five Kentucky players were in double figures. In addition , 56% of their 26 field goals were assisted.

Block Party...
Kentucky rejected 13 Jayhawk attempts with 6-10 freshman Anthony Davis leading the way with 7. The blocked shots doesn't even consider the attempts not sent back but altered.

The season is underway.
Ray and the Kansas cheerleaders
in the first shot of the season

Between Patrick & Joseph -- Villanova's Record on March 18

The Pause Between the Feasts...
While folks have mulled the subject of Villanova's record on St. Patrick's Day and even lately (ok here) the Wildcats' record on St. Joseph's Day, the day that separates the two has gone largely undocumented. Late enough in March to consist entirely of post season games, in fact Villanova's first post season tournament, the inaugural NCAA tournament in 1939, was played over this two day time period. While the Wildcats were victorious on St. Patrick's day 1939, defeating Brown 42-30, when they moved on to the first National Semi-Final, they were eliminated by Ohio State, 36-53, on the Palestra floor the following night.

After that first NCAA appearance, Villanova and March 18 went on a 29 year hiatus. Villanova continued to play in the post season, and March 18 continued to serve as a play date for the NCAA and NIT. The twain just didn't meet again until 1968 in the NIT quarter-finals, when Villanova lost to Kansas, 49-55, at Madison Square Garden. Since "breaking the ice", the Wildcats have played on March 18 seven more times in the ensuing 43 years.

March 18 by the Numbers...
Villanova has played nine post season games on March 18, going 4-5 (0.444) on the Day Between the Feasts. The record...

Year	Opponent	Location	Score	W/L	Tourn.
1939	Ohio State	Palestra	39-53	L	NCAA
1968	Kansas	Madison Square Garden	49-55	L	NIT
1971	Fordham	Raliegh NC	85-75	W	NCAA
1972	South Carolina	Morgantown, WV	78-90	L	NCAA
1988	Arkansas	Cincinnati, OH	82-74	W	NCAA
1992	Virginia	Pavilion	80-83	L	NIT
2003	Siena	Albany	59-74	L	NIT
2005	New Mexico	Nashville, TN	55-47	W	NCAA
2010	Robert Morris	Providence, RI	73-70	W	NCAA

The abundace of losses, especially when compared to St. Patrick (6-6) and St. Joseph (6-1) is intriguing as Villanova has a winning record in both the NCAA (49-31, 0.613) and the NIT (24-17, 0.585). The timing -- March 18 was the date for second and later round games (in both tournaments) through 1972. Which explains, to some degree, Villanova's less than stellar 1-3 record through that period. Note the games from 1988 through the present, played on March 18, are opening round games. Villanova's record through that period is 3-2. Let's hope the Wildcats can continue the opening round winning trend, and even the record in 2011.

Guest Contributor Ray Floriani: The 2010 Jimmy V Classic

by Ray Floriani
NEW YORK CITY - The Jimmy V Classic gave us another one of those March-like evenings in December. Four nationally ranked teams. A charged up atmosphere. A sellout (19,391) crowd filling Madison Square Garden. And all in the name of a wonderful cause.

The scores:

Kansas	81	Memphis	68
Syracuse	72	Michigan State	58

A sell out crowd
at Madison Square Garden

Memphis-Kansas
The Pace & Efficiency:

		Off.
	Poss.	Eff.
Memphis	75	91
Kansas	74	110

Oliver's Four Factors:

		FTA
	eFG%	FGA	OR%	TO%
Memphis	41	11	33	16
Kansas	63	20	45	30

The first four minutes were played at a 90 possession pace, too fast for either team to operate efficiently. Entering the game Kansas and Memphis both averaged possessions per game in the seventies. But the teams were over anxious, perhaps from the "large stage" provided by Madison Square Garden and ESPN, and it showed in their play. KU led 5-4 but had twice as many turnovers (4) as field goals. As the half progressed the tempo stayed fast but a little more reasonably paced.

About the only area Memphis had an edge was in turnover rate. Kansas coach Bill Self discussed those dreaded TOs as lost opportunities where his offense failed to capitalize. Going beyond the raw numbers we see the Jayhawks went from the 14:02 to 6:55 mark of the second half without a turnover. During that time they built a double digit lead that proved to be insurmountable for the Tigers to overcome. Kansas' shooting from the floor was not surprising considering their easy access to the paint where they enjoyed a 46-35 edge in scoring. They also spread the wealth with four players in double figures paced by Markieff Morris with 16 points. About the only place they did not shoot well was from the line (11 of 19 for 58%). The young Tigers, suffering their first loss, struggled on both ends. The defensive end was most upsetting and of immediate concern for Memphis coach Josh Pastner.

Memphis coach Josh Pastner
during an interview

Offensively, a good part of the Memphis offense was 'gift wrapped' by Kansas, as the Tigers enjoyed a 29-18 edge in points off turnovers.

No love for Memphis
from these Kansas fans (and Santa?)

Syracuse-Michigan State:
The Pace & Efficiency:

		Off.
	Poss.	Eff.
Syracuse	69	108
Michigan State	69	84

The Four Factors:

		FTA
	eFG%	FGA	OR%	TO%
Syracuse	46	41	36	16
Michigan State	45	17	26	25

Observations:
Tom Izzo was none too pleased. The Michigan State coach called it "gut check time" for his Spartans following the loss to Syracuse. The thing that had Izzo most perturbed was "we got our butts kicked". Specifically they were dominated to a 42-24 edge by the Orange in points in the paint. "That has never happened to us." Izzo said. "Nor will it happen again." Rick Jackson of Syracuse was the main inside threat for the Orange with 17 points 16 rebounds.

The offensive rebounding percentage and free throw rate reflect how Syracuse owned the paint. Orange had fifteen first half field goals and fourteen were in the paint. Besides Jackson's inside work Scoop Jardine (19 points) was effective on penetration. Jardine finished with 6 of 6 shooting (7 of 9 overall) from two point range.

Another highly regarded team falls to the 2-3 zone of Syracuse. Big East teams seem to fare a little better because they face it at least once a year. If you are out of the region, as Michigan State, you probably see some zones but none as tough and difficult to beat like that of Syracuse. Reviewing it on tape just doesn't do the zone justice. Athletic, quick and long defenders move, close the gaps and deflect passes in the Syracuse 2-3.

Izzo's Spartans struggled so much with the zone they reverted to what he called a "sissy jump shooting game". One that netted 7 of 24 (29%) shooting from three point range.

For those who argue zones are too passive we submit the TO rate figure. That is one quarter of Michigan State's possessions ending in a TO.

Michigan state did make a nice run to get it to a one possession game midway through the final half. Syracuse went on a run at that point to close it out. The run was aided by only two Spartan field goals from the 12 minute mark until 90 seconds remained and the issue settled.

Michigan State's best success game on late first half lobs over the back of the zone. An adjustment on the back line (being more cognizant on the baseline) by the Orange at the half ended that threat.

Jim Boeheim made the observation that he 'never had a team struggle like this in the early season." Not a bad sign given the Orange are 8-0 despite some bumps in the road.

The Syracuse mentor did note his club's offense is the area that needs some improvement. The defense has been good to date.

Durrell Summers, a 6-5 senior, led Michigan State with 18 points and was the most effective and versatile Spartan. He finished a few 'alley oops' inside and was 4 of 9 from three.

Numbers weren't eye catching but Boeheim was pleased with the play of freshmen C.J. Fair, Fab Melo and Baye Moussa Keita. A 7-foot center, Melo, "was very active," per Boeheim. "We just have to cure him of taking jump shots," Boeheim added with a touch of humor. Saddled by foul trouble Melo handed out two assists in thirteen minutes.

Special mention to Scott Peterman who runs the mensbasketballhoopscoop.blogspot.com web site. Proceeds for any e-book sold this weekend from his site, were donated to the V Foundation for cancer research.

Finishing:
Kansas put four players in double figures and Markieff Morris of the Jayhawks led the way with 16 points. Kansas is 8-0, Memphis is now 7-1.

Syracuse advanced to 8-0 while Michigan State is 6-3. Scoop Jardine led all scorers with 19 points.

It was Kansas' first win in three trips to the V Classic. Jayhawks' other two appearances were losses to Atlantic Ten and Big Five schools, Temple in 1995 and St.Joesph's just five years ago.

Jim Boeheim meets the media

Coaching Carousal Part 4: Butterfly Effect

Dominos -- Don Monson "Resigns" as a Gopher & Gregg Marshall Becomes the Head Shocker
Don Monson was the very successful Head Coach of the Gonzaga Bulldogs. The University of Minnesota needed a head coach and enticed Don Monson east in the 1998 off season. Monson coached at Minnesota for nearly 7 seasons, taking the Gophers to an NCAA in 2005 and 4 NITs. By 2006 however the AD wanted a change and Monson was tired enough to "resign" 7 games into the 2006 season. The AD named Monson's assistant Jim Molinari the interim coach and opened a quiet, season-long, coaching search. That administrative decision set in motion a sequence of coaching changes (commonly called the Coaching Carousal), which resembles the tumbling motion of domino tiles. Monson out; Tubby Smith leaves Kentucky to take the Minnesota job. Billy Gillispie leaves Texas A&M to take the Kentucky job. Mark Turgeon leaves Wichita State to take the TAMU job. Gregg Marshal leaves Winthrop to take the Wichita State job. Assistant Coach Randy Peele is promoted to the head coaching job. The Minnesota-->Kentucky-->TAMU-->Wichita State-->Winthrop sequence from the 2007 off season is one of the longer sequences in recent years, but a good illustration of the direct, A-to-B-to-C, nature of head coaches changing jobs. The longest head coaching sequence this off season, strangely enough, was triggered when Virginia fired Dave Leitao (former assistant at Connecticut and head coach at DePaul). That move set off two more head coaching changes, the second at Washington, when Tony Bennett moved over to take the Cavalier job, and at Portland State, when Ken Bone moved over to take the Wassou job. That 3 coach shift took just over 4 weeks to complete -- Leitao was fired on March 16; Viking Assistant coach Tyler Geving was promoted to the Head Coaching job on April 13.

Butterflies -- Billy Clyde Gets Fired & Born Ready Becomes a 'Cat (or a Tiger?)
Watching the recruiting process is a bit like watching a field of butterflies. Too many clustered around a single clump of clover and the others will drift off looking for another cluster. A single butterfly meanders off on a completely different course; four circle aimlessly as if lost or waiting. While few or none of them meander over to a particular part of the field in view. What influences the choices for butterflies? Ask a recruit why he chose a particular school and he may talk about anything from the location, the programs of study, the traditions (sports or otherwise), the opportunity to play, to go to the NCAA or even pursue a career in the NBA. Any given recruit might mention any combination of those reasons. Rarely does the recruit say his other choices were terrible. He wanted to go to the University of X but they didn't have a scholarship, or the coach was a feuding with his family/AAU coach/HS coach, and so on. Is D1 recruiting less predictable than the weather?

Coaches recruit the players. While an assistant coach may set up contact with the recruit and his family, the Head Coach often serves as the closer in the process. When the high schooler signs his (or her) National Letter of Intent (NLI), it is sent to the college/university where the Coach works. Coaches recruit players, but recruits "sign" to play for a school. Luke Winn's April 20 article for Sports Illustrated reviews the consequences of Billy Gillispie's firing from the University of Kentucky and John Calipari's much covered decision to take the job with the most obesssive fans in D1 basketball. Gillispie had a class of his own signed to play in the Blue Grass next season (not to mention the returning squad that featured Patrick Patterson and Jodie Meeks). Calipari left a handful of recruits at Memphis. As UK's recruits examined their options and waited to talk with Calipari, the Memphis recruits reviewed their options (and asked for their releases). SI's Andy Staples notes that recruits, particularly at mid-major schools, are pushing for side agreements to their NLI which, though not recognized by the NCAA, would allow them to be released should the coach leave for another job. Calipari's move affected more than the incoming classes at Kentucky and Memphis. Lance Stephenson, Scout Inc.'s #12 seemed bound for Kansas and Bill Self, but Caplipari's move meant Xavier Henry, a guard Self recruited hard during the fall and winter, was again "on the market". Self put Stephenson on hold while he pursued Henry, who he managed to sign last week. Meanwhile Maryland and St. John's, who had pursued Stephenson (as their 1st choice) through the same fall and winter, find they still have to wait on Stephenson. The self-styled "Born Ready" is still not ready to make a decision about college. Memphis and Arizona, both of whom lost coaches in the past month, are looking for late spring recruiting pickups.

Villanova fans remember Scottie Reynolds came to the Main Line as a result of spring coaching changes. Back in 2007 Mike Davis left Indiana (he eventually took the UAB job), and the Hoosiers hired Kelvin Sampson, then Head Coach at Oklahoma. Sampson had signed Scottie Reynolds out of Herndon, Viginia during the Fall signing period, but Reynolds was reluctant to go to Norman and play for an as yet unknown coach. He received his release and was pursued by Michigan and Villanova. Though he had been recruited the previous year by Michigan Head Coach Tommy Amaker, Reynolds chose Villanova and Coach Wright. He may well have been influenced by speculation that Amaker's job was in jeopardy. Amaker was fired the following off season, and currently heads up the men's basketball program at Harvard.

By the Numbers
With just under 2 weeks left in the Spring signing period, there have been a total of 26 vacancies. Through this time last off season there were 42 (of a 43 total vacancies). Projecting forward, there may be another 1-2 vacancies (all things equal...), most likely from circumstances unforeseen. Like the previous two offseasons, the period of heaviest turnover was during the NCAAs, where this season nearly 50% of the vacancies were created during the 3 week tournament.

Post Game: Kansas -- Last Call

The ever-reliable Nova News Blog, written by Tim, is again "first to press" with his game recap. Tim kept a running diary of the game, and when it was over, edited and molded it into a recap, "Kansas Ends Nova's Season". The Villanova Viewpoint Blog weighs in with combined post game and season retrospective. Catch it at "Kansas 72, Villanova 57". The I Bleed Blue and White Blog also posted during the game...not so much a an online diary but an emotional response to early developments, "We Don't Deserve It". No one over there has posted in today...should we send someone over to check on Jamie, Mark and Chris? The Let's Go Nova Blog has not posted either, but I am sure both I Bleed Blue and White and Let's Go Nova will be up with recaps shortly. The official Athletic Department site posted an AP story about the game, "Villanova's Tournament Runs Ends..." to go with the official box score -- which, I might add, was not posted until the middle of Saturday afternoon, slower than normal. And of course the Philadelphia press has published stories about the loss. You can check them out over at philly.com -- sports. The breakdown by halves...

Opponent	Kansas
	1st	2nd	Total
Pace	33.9	32.2	66.0
	Offense				Defense
	1st	2nd	Total		1st	2nd	Total
Rating	65.1	106.9	85.6		120.8	98.3	109.9
eFG%	30.0	46.6	38.1		72.2	47.2	62.2
TORate	29.6	12.2	21.0		26.5	28.5	27.5
OR%	41.7	29.4	36.6		33.3	30.8	31.8
FTA/FGA	26.7	34.5	30.5		7.4	100.0	44.4
FTM/FGA	13.3	27.5	20.3		7.4	77.8	35.6
ARate	37.5	15.4	23.8		68.8	62.5	66.7
Blk%	6.7	10.3	8.5		7.4	0.0	4.4
Stl%	17.8	6.1	12.0		14.7	15.8	15.3

I had to go back to the LSU game to find a half where the offense was as inefficient as Villanova's 65.1 first half ORtg versus Kansas. The Jayhawks however, had a far more efficient (and prolific) first half than the Tigers (120.8 vs 100.7). LSU obliged the Wildcat's second half surge (116.5) with a collapse of their own (83.9). The Jayhawks did cool off (to 98.3), but the Wildcat's defense would have had to take another 15-20 points off of their offense (where is John Brady when you need him?) to make this game competitive. The first-to-second-half progression (for both offense and defense...) is a pattern fans have seen more than a few this season. The team PPWS, 0.84, was the worst since the first Georgetown game (0.76). The Georgetown game was less obvious because Villanova's defense was a bit more effective against the Hoyas. Another measure of field goal efficiency I have used, eFG% was 38.1, also one of the lowest posted this season. Villanova has played 6 games this season where they have had an eFG% below 40.0. They are 2-4 in those games (if you guessed LSU as one of Nova's wins, you are correct; the first Pittsburgh game was the other). The lowest eFG% posted by this Wildcat squad was 27.2 -- in the first Georgetown game.

The defensive rating (DRtg%) posted against KU was fourth worst (in efficiency) to those posted by (in order...) the Hawks of St. Joseph's (136.3), the Scarlet Knights (127.3) and the Blue Demon's game (122.3). Of course the 'Cats were 0-3 in those games, the deficit was just too large to close. And so it was with the Jayhawks.

Odds and Ends...
1. While Shane Clark and Dante Cunningham put up very similar numbers -- 10 points and 7 rebounds, their efficiencies were very different. Shane notched a PPWS of 1.00 and an eFG of 50.0, while Dante's offensive numbers were 0.92 and 37.5 (PPWS & eFG). Nod to Shane as these were the kinds of efficiencies he was posting earlier in the season. He has been on the Mainline now since 2005-06, but has not had a full, healthy season yet.
2. Dwayne Anderson and Corey Stokes, the more consistent second options on offense lately were a bit less effective last night. Dwayne's PPWS was a pedestrian 0.84 while Corey S. stood a bit better with a 1.01 (higher than the team average last night, but lower than the season long team PPWS -- 1.07). Dwayne put up eFG numbers slightly better than Clemson (one of his worst outings since becoming a starter), but at 44.4, it was off his season long pace of 58.5 (a very good eFG by the way, borderline Top 100 level). Stokes did a bit better than Anderson, posting 50.0. But Corey S. played only 55.0% of the available minutes and took only 15.4% of the available shots. Stokes was not a first or second option last night.
3. Last night's assist rate, 23.8, was the worst since Rutgers (22.7). The extremely tight defense put on the guards (reflected in Scottie's numbers...among his lowest this season) no doubt cut off passing lanes. During the slump the team had a tendency to divolve into 3-4 individuals attempting one-on-one breakdowns. That appeared to happen a few times last night as well. While the team had an assist rate of 36.4 versus Clemson last week, an assist rate below 40.0 tends to be more associated with losses (Cincinnati -- 34.6; Rutgers -- 22.7; St. Joseph's -- 33.3) than wins...
4. The 'Cats got most of their points from 2 point FGMs, about 63.2%, far higher than any other tournament (BET or NCAA) game. Villanova averaged about 29.6% of their points from 3s, and another 27% from the free throw line. Last night those numbers were 15.8 and 21.1 respectively.

Referee Notes...
The crew was manned by Patrick Evans, Doug Shows and Ted Valentine. Contrary to some pregame speculation (by Jayhawk fans...), Ed Hightower was not in the building (or at least not on the court...). The game was, especially for a neutral court game, one of the least whistled games in memory. This crew called a total of 35 fouls and sent both teams to the line for a total of 38 free throw attempts. Both are well on the "lite" side for Villanova games this season. The Wildcat's FTAs, 18, fell below the standard deviation for FTAs on neutral courts. This was the first Villanova game for Evans and Valentine, going back to the 2004-05 season anyway. Doug Shows refereed one other Nova game this season -- the LSU game.

Playing With the House's Money...

There is a near unanimous opinion outside of the Nova Nation that this game is a slam dunk (literally?) for the Kansas Jayhawks. And why not? According to Pomeroy (on Villanova's Schedule Page...) the Wildcats and Jayhawks will play for about 71 possessions and that KU will win by 16 (81-65). Pomeroy gives the 'Cats about a 7% probability for an upset. Nasty. If you are looking for a preview (it's pretty late you better get going), then you might want to head over to the Villanova Viewpoint Blog where the blogger has a preview, "Sweet 16 Kansas" available. One of the better "Keys to a Win" posts I have read this week comes from the DRE Hoops Blog -- head over to catch "Villanova - Kansas Preview" if you have time (there is hope Toto!). And the bloggers over at Let's Go Nova have, in addition to a traditional "Keys to Victory"-type preview, also have a running dialog with a Kansas fan in the "Questions from a Kansas Fan" posting.

Best of luck to the Wildcats!