What is in Store for February?

The Best Start Ever
After concluding the best January of Coach Wright's tenure at Villanova, I wondered what February might have in store. How did February compare historically to January in the Coach Wright era? A trip to the archives yielded a compilation with one or two factoids...

	Summary
	W	L	Pct.
November	33	7	0.825
December	48	7	0.873
January	45	29	0.608
February	38	27	0.585
March	33	21	0.611
April	0	1	0.000

The Wildcats will play eight games during the month. If they play to historic averages, expect a 5-3 record for the month. The first 3-4 seasons were a disaster for Villanova; the last four had the Wildcats log a 0.719 winning percentage for the month. If Villanova plays to that winning percentage, expect a 6-2 record for the month. A 24-4 or a 25-3 record going into March would exceed the team's 2006 record (22-3) and their 2009 record (23-6), and certainly match some historic bests for the program (historically, March has been a much better month for the coach).

In Coach Wright's first three seasons February was a less productive month than January. Through the last five seasons the team's record in February improved over their January results. Coming off of a perfect January (8-0), it would be hard to see how February's results could better that record. At this point Ken Pomeroy is predicting a 5-3 record for the month.

Mississippi Post Game: Jay Wright's Flying Circus

Once Upon a Time in San Juan...
On a night when the Wildcat offense (again) did not get going until late, the defense showed up and smothered the Rebels enough to put the Wildcats back in the game. Recaps are available elsewhere, but for those interested in the numbers, there is no better place to look than the Wildcat's home. For those who prefer quick hits, try Mike Sheridan's game notes; they are a great way to get key information and statistics without wading through the paragraphs. The Wildcats were locked up in a nip & tuck stuggle (+- 5 points) with the Rebels until the 14:13 mark of the 2nd half. The 'Cats began to break it open, slowly (and that's about the only place in this analysis I can use that word...), opening their lead out to double digits (on a j by Corey Stokes) at about the 7 minute mark. The 'Cats managed to maintain the margin for another 9 possesions (per team), when a pair of 3s by Chris warren and 2 free throws by Reggie Buckner brought the Rebs to within 9 points, 63-72. The Rebels however, had about 94 seconds in which to work, and fouling Villanova, a team that is converting at a 70.5% clip right now, is not a winning strategy. Villanova pulled away again, pushing the margin out to 12 as time expired.

The breakdown by halves...

Opponent	Mississippi
	1st	2nd	Game
Pace	39.8	43.6	83.4
	Offense				Defense
Rating	67.8	119.3	94.7		57.8	101.0	80.3
eFG%	36.4	53.1	44.6		33.3	51.4	43.7
TORate	35.2	18.4	26.4		32.6	22.9	27.6
OR%	34.8	50.0	41.5		26.1	26.1	26.1
FTA/FGA	12.1	71.9	41.5		37.0	30.6	33.3
FTM/FGA	9.1	56.3	32.3		18.5	19.4	19.0
ARate	27.3	31.3	29.6		37.5	43.8	41.7
Blk%	9.1	9.4	9.2		3.7	13.9	9.5
Stl%	17.1	4.8	10.9		7.7	6.6	7.1
PPWS	0.77	1.21	1.02		0.72	1.07	0.92
2FG%	39.1	53.8	46.9		33.3	45.8	40.5
3FG%	20.0	33.3	25.0		22.2	41.7	33.3
FT%	75.0	78.3	77.8		50.0	63.6	57.1
%2FG	66.7	53.8	58.2		52.2	50.0	50.7
%3FG	22.2	11.5	15.2		26.1	34.1	31.3
%FT	11.1	34.6	26.6		21.7	15.9	17.9

The 2nd half offensive explosion was fueled by each of Oliver's four factors (see green highlighted stats under Offense above). The 'Cats converted their 2 point attempts at a much higher rate, marginally improved their 3 point conversion rate, took care of the ball (reduced their turnover rate), took full possession of the boards (both ends, but I am talking about offensive boards right now) and did a much better job getting to the charity stripe (end-game fouling fluffed those numbers a bit). The offensive efficiency that was lacking for the first two games on the island showed up, just a little late. Reynolds and Stokes accounted for 100% of the 3FGMs while taking 56.3% of the 3FGAs. Collectively they converted their 3FGAs at a 44.4% rate. Stokes in particular, had a very good night, logging a 1.65 PPWS (82.5 True Shot) to go with his 66.7% eFG%.

The defensive efficiency slipped, half-over-half, but note the 1st half defensive efficiency, 57.8 is ridiculously low (see orange highlight above), there is no reason to expect that the 'Cats could limit the Rebs to a half a point per possession for an entire game, and the only number that slipped into the mediocre range was field goal defense (eFG% under defense, note the red highlight).

Notes & Observations
1. Antonio Pena logged his 3rd double-double of the 5 game-old season as he scored (a personal best of the season) 17 points while securing 16 (6-10-16) rebounds. His 6 offensive rebounds are especially impressive, as he posted a ?% offensive rebounding rate for the game. Pena missed a double-double in Villanova's opener against Fairleigh Dickinson by a single point. He is averaging a double-double (12.2 ppg, 11.0 rpg) so far.
2. Villanova defense is well ahead of Villanova offense this season, something of a surprise frankly. The 'Cats have held their opponents to < 1.0 points per possession (ppp) in every game this season. They have held opponents to < 0.90 ppp in 3 of their 5 games so far. I will post more on the tournament shortly, with additional numbers.
3. In the absence of Mouphtaou Yarou, Maurice Sutton has stepped in to start 2 games and play 55.8% of the minutes at the #5. Sutton's line includes 11 points on 4-8, 3-5 shooting. He has grabbed 17 (7-10-17) rebounds while dishing 1 assist and committing 7 turnovers with 4 blocked shots.
4. 3 point shooting in the Mississippi game aside, Taylor King put together a very impressive effort. Despite going 0-4 from beyond the arc, King scored 9 points on 3-9 (0-4, 3-5) and 3-4 shooting. For the 2nd consecutive game King missed his 1st collegiate double-double by 1 -- in this game it was a point; in the Dayton game it was a rebound. King also dished 1 assist, committed 2 turnovers and had 2 steals in 29 minutes of play. For the tournament King secured 24 rebounds while scoring 31 points in the 3 games.
5. For the 3rd consecutive year Villanova has played in the championship game of their early season invitational, and for the 2nd consecutive season they have won that game. Congratulations Wildcats!

Ref Notes
Terry Moore, Gerry Pollard and Kelly Self ran the game, the 2nd Villanova tournament game for Pollard who also refereed the George Mason whistle-fest. The game was well within the standard deviation for fouls called, on both Villanova and their opponent. Self is a new face to the Nova Nation. He has refereed for 14+ seasons, mostly in the CUSA and Big 12 conferences. From the stats over at StatSheet.com, Self appears to be more a "let 'em play" type zebra. Gerry Pollard is also a new face to Wildcat fans. Pollard refs out of the Missouri Valley and Big 12 conferences.

North Carolina Post Game -- Sleeping in the Streets

The Carolina March...
Historically, the Villanova staff has, with 4 days to prepare, come up with some innovative wrinkles to Wildcat game plans. Back in the waning days of 2005 the Four Guard Offense was born in the desperate days between Villanova's win over Florida (at the cost of Curtis Sumpter's ACL) and their Sweet Sixteen date with these same North Carolina Tar Heels. The Wildcats of 2009 were faster and better able to develop plays out of transition. Running with the Heels however, seemed to play right into the Tar Heels strengths. "Shoot 'em up & sleep in the streets" was the creed this team lived by this season. In going with that approach the staff showed tremendous confidence in the team. But on Saturday night, the Wildcats slept in the streets. The breakdown...

Opponent	North Carolina
Pace	77.0
	Offense		Defense
Rating	89.2		107.3
eFG%	36.1		49.2
TORate	15.5		15.5
OR%	38.3		31.6
FTA/FGA	20.3		89.2
FTM/FGA	15.2		35.5
ARate	10.4		10.4
Blk%	8.3		4.8
Stl%	7.8		9.1
PPWS	0.79		1.04
2FG%	40.4		35.0
3FG%	18.5		50.0
FT%	75.0		59.5
%2FG	60.9		33.7
%3FG	21.7		39.8
%FT	17.4		26.5

CBS does not provide a break down by halves; the play-by-play appears to have been provided by a firm more comfortable with the NBA (Dead ball foul on Cunningham?). And the narrative does not match the box score. A regrettable lapse with especialy bad timing. My informal tally taken on game night suggested the 1st half was an offensive shootout (as promised by the Nova staff), while the 2nd half saw significant defensive adjustments. Unfortunately that shot defense worked for both teams. I have not checked the other games (except Michigan-UNC), but 107.3 is the best defense any of Carolina's opponents were able to muster during the Heels' six game run through the NCAA field.

Observations & Notes...
1. Villanova's success through the tournament had been tied to good offensive performances from 2 of Corey Fisher, Dante Cuningham and Scottie Reynolds, with efficient contributions (and occasional domination) from two or more in the second wave (Anderson, Clark, Redding and Stokes). Credit the Tar Heels with their abilty to shut down all three in the first wave (Reynolds had the most efficient night with a PPWS of 0.88), while rendering Stokes and Anderson largely ineffective. The most efficient shooters wearing Blue and White were Clark and Redding, neither of whom were especially prolific scorers.
2. The Wildcats shot a disappointing 40.4% from inside the arc, though it compared favorably to UNC's 35.0% from the same distance. The Tar Heels however shot a fatal 50.0% from beyond the arc (versus Villanova's 18.5%), comparable to converting 2FGAs at a 75% clip. Fatal, absolutely fatal.
3. The 'Cats did a credible job on the boards, their offensive rebounding rate (38.3%) about where it was during the season. They were able to limit 2nd chance points for the Heels as well, but neither was particularly effective as Villanova was down by double digit numbers through much of the night.

Ref Notes
Pat Driscoll, Karl Hess and Scott Thornley ran the crew Saturday night. Driscoll and Hess have supervised (nine) other Villanova games this season, the 'Cats going 7-2 in those tilts. The Wildcats have seen Scott Thornley before -- in the 2007 NCAAs when Villanova lost to Kentucky. The game was a bit high in the number of free throws allocated to the Tar Heels, consistent perhaps with the number UNC typically gets. Free throws for the Wildcats was down...significantly (for them). Though Carolina does not tend to foul. for Villanova, used to seeing 25% or more of their points come from the line, 17.4% was just not enough.

Next Up
The end of the season banquet, April 22 at the Pavilion. The official good bye to the Class of 2009 will be very, very special.