NCAA East Region -- Looking Ahead While Looking Back

What have We Learned?
Five hours of basketball matching the four best teams in the East Region leaves the fans in Newark looking at the last two standing in a field of sixteen that included five regular season conference champions, the Big Ten Tournament champion and #1 team in Division 1, the the Southeast Conference Tournament Champion. The evening started with a gutty, but doomed comeback attempt by Marquette that was the very personification of their coach, and as the clock struck midnight in New Jersey, Ohio State, the third #1 seed in this tournament, fell and a Kentucky team as paradoxical as it is young, stepped up to be the last contender, opposite North Carolina, for the last ticket to Houston.

X's and O's, Lacking Jimmys and Joes?
Marquette's Head Coach Buzz Williams approached the dais in the interview room on Thursday to Meet the Press..."What did you say? I was joining you on what?" he asked the moderator in an accent that was neither "true Southern" nor "true Western", the drawl and twang spoken and understood best in the northern and eastern corners of Texas and eastern Oklahoma. "The dais". "How do you spell it?". "D-a-i-s" and as the assembled media chuckled, Buzz slipped comfortably into an Awwww Shucks personna I suspect he assumes everyone east of the Mississippi believes folks from Texas and Oklahoma to be. On the third question however he slipped ever so temporarily out of that role. In response to a question about how the Golden Eagles would deal with the Tar Heels' athletes, Buzz threw off another self-deprecating line about not knowing. Perhaps his ego got the better of him at that point however, and in a slightly lower tone he rattled off a series of statistics that confirmed to anyone paying attention, that he had given the problem of besting North Carolina quite a lot of thought. "I think our offense has to help our defense, similar to how we had play against Syracuse...". If North Carolina took only two more possessions per game than Marquette, the Golden Eagles scored more efficienctly. Smart offense "Live ball turnovers end up being dunks...quick long shots end up being dunks...", would limit North Carolina breakouts and keep Marquette defenders in front of North Carolina runners...

Marquette's Coach Buzz Williams Can Only Watch
As North Carolina deconstructs his defense

I doubt that any of the 17,000+ assembled fans, a cohort that included a healthy sample of Marquette gold, anticipated the 40-15 Tar Heel blitz that blew the Golden Eagles out of the tournament. As Ray Floriani noted (Semi-Finals Recap), Marquette converted at a nightmarish, 0.44 points per possession, rate. To comeback, Marquette would need more than an offensive blitz of their own, they would also have to shut the Heel offense down as well. Extremely difficult to do both without active cooperation by the opponent. Offensively, the Golden Eagles made a game run that saw them post 48 points of their own, but defensively they made no progress at all, yielding 41 points, one more than in the first half, to the UNC juggernaut. Who, outside of the Tar Heel back court, can shutdown the Tar Heel front court?

North Carolina's Runnin' Frontcourt
"I love the way (Roy) Williams uses Barnes" shouted the writer next to me midway through the first half "he can play him anywhere from the #2 to the #4, with his length and speed...". Indeed, all three of the Tar Heel front court starters, 6-8 freshman Harrison Barnes, 6-10 sophomore John Henson and 7-0 Tyler Zeller are fast enough to play to play one spot down while long enough to play one spot up, covering anywhere from the #2 to the #5. If Roy Williams wants to go taller he can move Barnes into the back court (wing) -- as the freshman's 3-7 shooting from beyond the arc hints -- and insert a beefier front court player. Or move Barnes to the low post and...

Justin Knox (25) and Harrison Barnes (40) finish at the rim

...let him go to the cup. John Henson has the length to play the #4, but can also fade to the perimeter and take a three point attempt...

Though he missed the shot this time
forward John Henson (31) has the
requisite form to hit from that distance

The sophomore "utility" front court player logged a double-double (14 & 12) while switching between Jae Crowder and Jimmy Butler on defense.

Note the eye contact between Henson (31 holding the ball)
who gathers the rebound as guard Dexter Strickland (1 far left)
prepares to sprint the length of the floor. The guard finished at the rim

At 7-0 Tyler Zeller can also dominate on the backboards, but is comfortable facing the basket as he shoots. His 1.18 PPWS on 10-19 shooting from the field (all two point attempts) and 7-8 from the line suggest he can be accurate. The Euro-style forward logged a double-double (27 & 12) while dishing four assists and gathering three steals.

Marquette's freshman Davante Gardiner (42) uses his
arms and legs to box out Zeller (44) effectively
A physical player may be needed to neutralize
Zeller's length and mobility

Who the ?/#@!$#$! Is That Player?
From Coach John Calipari's 1:00 am post game press conference...

I think it was November he (#55 Kentucky forward Josh Harrellson) twittered some stuff about me, and I about threw him off the team...I thought better of it and...said, 'You are going to condition for 30 minutes before every practice and then you are going to practice or you can quit.' He worked so hard and all of a sudden his body changed. It's not what I did, it's what he did. His body changed. The extra work got his skills better. And it also got him to think differently. I tell players all the time, if you're going to do the same thing over and over and then expect a different result, that's the definition of insanity. You have to change, your habits, your work habits, your mentality...

Ohio State Coach Thad Matta pleads ineffectually
for a miss as Harrellson releases
his free throw attempt. No such luck Coach

When everyone else on the Kentucky squad was still warming to the task of shutting down Jared Sullinger's Party in the USA, Harrellson's 12 first half points kept Kentucky in the game. The senior supplied ½ of Kentucky's made field goals before the intermission, offsetting a huge advantage (12 vs. 4 made FTs) the Buckeyes gathered at the free throw line. Harrellson finished with 17 points and 10 rebounds, just a tick behind OSU's stud Jared Sullinger's 21 and 17.

OSU's Jared Sullinger (00 left) and UK's Josh Harrellson (55 right)
exchange play lists as they separate under the OSU basket?

The Myth of Youth
Kentucky's heralded freshmen class, Terrence Jones, Brandon Knight and Doron Lamb went a combined 8-25 (5-12, 3-13) and 2-2 from the line to contribute 23 points to the Wildcats' winning effort, while veterans Harrellson, DeAndre Liggins and 6-7 sophomore guard Darius Miller combined for 39 points on 14-23 (1-5, 13-18) shooting and 10-12 from the line. Brandon Knight hit the game winner, a jumper from 12 feet with 9.5 seconds left in regulation. "...they are not freshman anymore at this point..." -- John Diebler, Ohio State.

(Left to right) Brandon Knight (fr), Josh Harrellson (sr) & DeAndre Liggins (jr) break curfew...in front of a roomful of witnesses no less

Between them, these two programs have won 12 National Championships. Can Kentucky keep up with North Carolina? Can Liggins, Jones, Eloy Vargas (6-11 junior) and Harrellson neutralize the Tar Heel front court? The two teams met earlier this season, North Carolina taking a two point decision 75-73 (in a 76 possession game) in Chapel Hill in December. The teams have met 33 times, North Carolina holding an 22-11 edge, and twice in the NCAAs, again North Carolina holding a 2-0 edge.

Ray Floriani and I will be live from the Rock as Rush the Court will host live blogs from San Antonio, TX and Newark, NJ tomorrow.

Guest Contributor Ray Floriani: NCAA East Region Semi-Finals

by Ray Floriani

NEWARK, NJ - Probably fitting with a city of Newark's long history there will be a regional final between two programs with a lengthy, stored tradition of their own. Kentucky will face North Carolina Sunday for the right to go to Houston.

The Nasto's stand at the Fanfest.
Received a complimentary reginette (it is very good) from the staff.

The scores...

Team	Score			Team
North Carolina	81		63	Marquette
Kentucky	62		60	Ohio State

The game one pace and possessions saw the Tar Heels stepped things up and dictate a tempo more in their favor. Only a strong second half salvaged any offensive efficiency for Marquette. At intermission their OE was an almost unprintable 44.

Marquette players at the anthem

The pace and efficiency:

tr>td>North Carolina

		Off.
	Poss.	Eff.
Marquette	73	86
69	117

The Four Factors:

		FTA
	eFG%	FGA	OR%	TO%
Marquette	48	24	41	25
North Carolina	51	19	48	10

A tale of two halves. A first half 19-0 run by the Tar Heels basically opened up the game and was a deciding factor. Marquette trailed 40-15 at the half. In addition they had 12 turnovers, 6 field goals, zero assists and a 35% TO rate. The second half they shot and defended better but never seriously challenged North Carolina. That 25 point spot midway was too much to overcome.

the packed Rock

North Carolina owned a 29-15 edge in points off turnovers, the damage done mostly the first half. They also outscored Marquette 46-32 in points in the paint. In somewhat of a stat oddity, Marquette led 42-5 in bench points. Two reasons. Non-starters, Davante Gardner (16 points) and Jae Crowder (11) were two of Marquette's better point producers. Secondly, Roy Williams used a short, in numbers, rotation with six players getting 21 or more minutes.

Buzz Williams in the post game press conference
More questions than answers...

The Second Game
Game two, no surprise in the pace. These teams were content to grind this one out.

		Off.
	Poss.	Eff.
Kentucky	59	105
Ohio State	60	100

The Four Factors:

		FTA
	eFG%	FGA	OR%	TO%
Kentucky	52	25	26	19
Ohio State	38	29	39	12

The obligatory cheer shot.
Yours truly with the North Carolina cheer squad

Brandon Knight was 2 for 10 when he tried to come off a pick and roll, was defended, and opted for a mid-range jumper instead. The shot found the bottom of the net and proved to be the difference in the Kentucky victory. The late season maturity of Knight cannot be measured statistically. On the game he was 3 of 10 (1 of6 from three) for nine points. But in the stretch the freshman guard stepped up to hit a big trey before the game winner. Don't forget, he scored two points, again the game decider in the first round win over Princeton. With Knight, it's quality not quantity.

Kentucky was hit hard on the offensive glass. Normally they give up a 30% OREB percentage to their opposition. Ohio State put up above average numbers on the offensive glass, largely due to Jared Sullinger's 8 offensive boards.

The Wildcats, though , compensated with a strong showing on defense, limiting turnovers and having Brandon Knight on the floor in the clutch.

Notes
Attendance was 18,343...North Carolina was led by Tyler Zeller with 27 points 12 boards. John Henson teamed with Zeller to form a tough inside game. Henson added 14 points, a dozen rebounds and 5 blocks...Marquette finishes at 22-15.…Marquette's perimeter threat Darius Johnson-Odom struggled through a 2 of 9 shooting night finishing with 7 points…Jared Sullinger led all scorers in game two with 21 points…Josh Harrellson paced Kentucky with 17...Some Manley numbers:

	Manley
	Efficiency
Tyler Zeller, UNC	35
Josh Harrellson, UK	27
Jared Sullinger OSU	26
DeAndre Liggins, UK	21
John Henson, UNC	20
Harrison Barnes, UNC	20
Davante Gardiner, Marquette	17

On a per minute basis, Zeller's efficiency was an off the charts 1.30. Zeller played 27 minutes. Jimmy Butler of Marquette had a solid 16 efficiency. Johnson-Odom struggled, as noted, with a -2 metric. Kentucky's Brandon Knight had only a 4 efficiency. No complaints, I'm sure, from coach Cal, given the outcome.

The Rock about 1:30 am after a long but enjoyable evening

Guest Contributor Ray Floriani: NCAA East Region From the Rock

by Ray Floriani

NEWARK, NJ - In this piece we will look at that efficiency margins of the four teams in the Newark Regionals. Efficiency margin is the difference between offensive and defensive efficiency. Obviously, the larger the number the better.

Yours truly, the coffee 'addict'
A Newark favorite near the Rock

Among the four schools, Ohio State is the leader in EM (efficiency margin). The numbers:

	Efficiency
Team	Off.	Def.	Net
Ohio State	121	98	+28
Kentucky	114	96	+18
North Carolina	107	94	+13
Marquette	111	101	+10

Looking at the first two rounds of the tournament, Ohio State is still the leader with a very impressive number. The average EM of the four through two rounds:

	EM
	Avg.
Ohio State	+49.0
Marquette	+12.0
North Carolina	+10.0
Kentucky	+7.5

Downtown Newark, Broad Street on Thursday

Ohio state was +50 in their first round win over 16 seed UTSA. Buckeyes, expected to be challenged by George Mason were +48 in the second round rout over the Patriots.

Kentucky, Marquette and North Carolina's EM were affected by close contests. John Calipari's club was +3 in that squeaker over Princeton in round one. Carolina's narrow win over Washington in round two saw the Heels post a +4.

Ohio state's Jared Sullinger signing autographs after practice

Marquette had two tough games en route to Newark. Their win over Syracuse was a +6 EM. The Xavier game in round one, was competitive ( a 66-55 Marquette decision) but their EM was a healthy +18.

The NCAA tournament provides tougher competition and sterner tests, even in the early rounds. Ohio State, given their numbers, enters the Prudential Center playing at a very high level on both ends of the floor.

The rock during UNC practice

Got to chat with Marquette assistant Scott Monarch. Head coach Buzz Williams and the Marquette staff buy into and use tempo-free statistics a great deal. We discussed the cutoff rate (20%) of turnover rate or percentage. Monarch agreed Marquette's TO rate was too high 22% against Syracuse. The deciding factor though, was the Orange's TO problems with a 28% showing. At any rate, always great to discuss tempo-free with a fellow follower of the study.

Looking towards the Rock from Branford Place
A church, one of Newark's many historic buildings,
is in the foreground

greyCat adds -- Both Ray and I will be covering the East Region Friday night and Sunday. I will be a panelist for the Live Blog event over at Rush the Court Ray and I will provide post game analysis over here at Villanova by the Numbers. Drop in to the Live Blog tomorrow night & check back here for post game thoughts on the East Region.

Between Patrick & Joseph -- Villanova's Record on March 18

The Pause Between the Feasts...
While folks have mulled the subject of Villanova's record on St. Patrick's Day and even lately (ok here) the Wildcats' record on St. Joseph's Day, the day that separates the two has gone largely undocumented. Late enough in March to consist entirely of post season games, in fact Villanova's first post season tournament, the inaugural NCAA tournament in 1939, was played over this two day time period. While the Wildcats were victorious on St. Patrick's day 1939, defeating Brown 42-30, when they moved on to the first National Semi-Final, they were eliminated by Ohio State, 36-53, on the Palestra floor the following night.

After that first NCAA appearance, Villanova and March 18 went on a 29 year hiatus. Villanova continued to play in the post season, and March 18 continued to serve as a play date for the NCAA and NIT. The twain just didn't meet again until 1968 in the NIT quarter-finals, when Villanova lost to Kansas, 49-55, at Madison Square Garden. Since "breaking the ice", the Wildcats have played on March 18 seven more times in the ensuing 43 years.

March 18 by the Numbers...
Villanova has played nine post season games on March 18, going 4-5 (0.444) on the Day Between the Feasts. The record...

Year	Opponent	Location	Score	W/L	Tourn.
1939	Ohio State	Palestra	39-53	L	NCAA
1968	Kansas	Madison Square Garden	49-55	L	NIT
1971	Fordham	Raliegh NC	85-75	W	NCAA
1972	South Carolina	Morgantown, WV	78-90	L	NCAA
1988	Arkansas	Cincinnati, OH	82-74	W	NCAA
1992	Virginia	Pavilion	80-83	L	NIT
2003	Siena	Albany	59-74	L	NIT
2005	New Mexico	Nashville, TN	55-47	W	NCAA
2010	Robert Morris	Providence, RI	73-70	W	NCAA

The abundace of losses, especially when compared to St. Patrick (6-6) and St. Joseph (6-1) is intriguing as Villanova has a winning record in both the NCAA (49-31, 0.613) and the NIT (24-17, 0.585). The timing -- March 18 was the date for second and later round games (in both tournaments) through 1972. Which explains, to some degree, Villanova's less than stellar 1-3 record through that period. Note the games from 1988 through the present, played on March 18, are opening round games. Villanova's record through that period is 3-2. Let's hope the Wildcats can continue the opening round winning trend, and even the record in 2011.

Guest Contributor Ray Floriani: The 2010 Maggie Dixon Classic

by Ray Floriani
NEW YORK CITY- The Maggie Dixon Classic gave the fans four elite teams. The games did not turn out as competitive gems. Regardless, it was a special day. A history making day and a day to celebrate the life and legacy of Maggie Dixon and women's basketball.

The classic on the Garden scoreboard

The scores:

Texas A&M	79	Rutgers	50
UConn	81	Ohio State	50

The Four Factors from the TAMU-Rutgers opener:

		FTA
	eFG%	FGA	OR%	TO%
Texas A&M	52	23	47	23
Rutgers	27	49	46	38

In a 73 possession game Rutgers saw the extreme at both ends. A moderate to average offensive team entering the game (102 offensive efficiency), coach C. Vivian Stringer's club had defended well (84 defensive efficiency). Until today. The edge was close on the boards but that was about it. Rutgers had no answer for 6-2 Danielle Adams with 24 points 12 rebounds in 36 minutes. Adams hit from outside (2 for 6 from three) but did appreciable damage in the paint with a 50% (7 of 14 mark). In fact the paint was owned by the visiting Aggies with an absurdly high 34-10 edge on points in that area. Another stat that jumped off the page was TO rate. Specifically that of Rutgers with a ridiculously high 38% (27 total). Again, those turnovers spelled points as Texas A&M enjoyed a 38-7 margin in points off turnovers. Coach Gary Blair's group had a nice inside/outside mix. They hit 7-17 (41%) from three and 22-45 (49%) inside the arc. Rutgers was 0-8 from three and 13-41 (42%) from two.

The Efficiency numbers from the nightcap:

		Off.
	Poss.	Eff.
UConn	82	99
Ohio State	87	58

Pace was a little quick as UConn entered averaging in the high 60s (possessions) while Ohio State was in the mid 70s. Pushing the pace was by design. "We wanted to rebound and get out and run," said UConn junior guard Tiffany Hayes.

West Point Glee Club
performed the National anthem

The Four Factors:

		FTA
	eFG%	FGA	OR%	TO%
UConn	54	19	33	26
Ohio State	33	13	26	24

About the only area Geno Auriemma will look back in disdain on is turnovers. Fueled by 21 miscues the Huskies posted a TO Rate that could hurt them in a close game. Part of that TO number could be construed to a game plan that emphasized getting out in transition. On that end UConn held a 21-7 edge in transition points. Ever the perfectionist, Auriemma will address the turnovers as early as next practice, if not before.

Added Observations:
UConn did a great job on 6-4 center Jantel Lavender. She tied Tyler Hill for Buckeye scoring honors with 14 points but was forced into a 7 of 21 night from the floor. The nation's leading scorer was held 12 below her regular average.

The Garden scoreboard tells the score
and notes other streaks

Freshman center Stefanie Dotson had a 'stat stuffer' of a day for UConn. She scored just four points but added five rebounds and three blocks. In fact she was one of UConn's and the game's top three efficiency leaders, and the leader on a per minute basis:

	Efficiency
	Overall	per Min
Tiffany Hayes	28	0.800
Maya Moore	26	0.765
Stefanie Dotson	22	0.880

What if?
Roster sheets in the press room had Maya Moore listed on both UConn and Ohio state. Buckeye coach Jim Foster would certainly have been willing to add Moore to his 10th ranked team.

Coaches unanimously agree the first four minutes of each half are vital. Ohio State opened the game with a pair of three point field goals by Brittany Johnson to take a very early 6-0 lead. Thoughts of a potential upset were soon ended as the Huskies ran off 11 straight points to enter the 16 minute mark ahead 11-6. The numbers of the first four minutes saw UConn nine possessions (1.22 PPP) while Ohio State with the same possession total checked in at .67 PPP.

At the half UConn led 40-26. The first four minutes of the final half saw each team with 8 possessions. UConn scored 11 points (1.38 PPP) while Ohio State checked in with six (.75 PPP). That put the score at 51-32 UConn at the 16 minute mark and the outcome all but finalized.

Such was the UConn dominance inside (a 48-22 point in the paint edge) the first 8 minutes of the final half, the Huskies eight field goals and the 'longest' was a five footer in the lane.

Ball distribution was solid for the Big East representatives as well. UConn handed out 18 assists on 32 field goals showing 56% of their field goals assisted. Ohio State assisted on 8 of 18 (44%) field goals.

Closing the Book:
Rutgers is 7-5 while Texas A&M is 9-1. The Aggies' Danielle Adams' 24 points led all scorers in the first contest.

UConn is 10-0 while Ohio state fell to 8-2. Tiffany Hayes of UConn led all scorers with 26 points.

With 88 straight in the books, UConn hosts Florida Sate on Tuesday. Record crowd to see a women's game, 15,232, at Madison Square Garden was on hand. Pitt mentor Jamie Dixon was in attendance. His Panthers defeated Maryland Easter Shore the night before in Pittsburgh.

"When I was last here (as an assistant at Louisiana Tech) the major papers sent fashion editors to cover our game. Now I look at all of you out there in the media in this room and that is proof women's college basketball has arrived." - Texas A&M coach Gary Blair.

"It is different times but there are similarities to both teams (UConn women and UCLA men). The two teams shared a level of competitiveness. A level of expectations above that of anyone else." - UConn's Maya Moore on the 88 game win streak.

"I am not doing anything different than other (coaches). The stuff I do I 'stole' from other people" Geno Auriemma on his coaching philosophy.

"We prepared and went about our routine the same way. I did let the players know it was a different week. A chance to get into the history books" - Geno Auriemma on the preparation for the Ohio state game.

The UConn women celebrate their historic moment
at center court, Madison Square Garden

Guest Contributor Ray Floriani: At the Coaches vs Cancer

by Ray Floriani

NEW YORK CITY – The first one was a rout. The nightcap looked like one was in the works. In the end North Carolina was left to sweat out a 77-73 decision over Ohio State in the Coaches vs.Cancer semis at Madison Square Garden.

The scores and TEMPO FREE Breakdown:

			Offens
	Score	Poss.	Effncy
Syracuse	95	80	119
California	73	81	90
North Carolina	77	76	101
Ohio State	73	75	97

Syracuse entered the game averaging 84 possessions a game. The Orange imposed their will pace wise and defensively. Cal could not solve the patented 2-3 zone of Syracuse. Often the possession, after several passes, would end in a three pointer. Cal (44 per cent eFG) shot 6 of 20 from three point land. Cal was without (injured) three point threat Ryan Roberson, an 18 ppg scorer, but coach Mike Montgomery refused to let that be an excuse.

‘STUDY’ THOSE TOs:
Both teams had solid turnover rates, Syracuse at 15% and Cal at 19%. Actually Montgomery was very concerned over the 15 turnovers his team committed because they led to 19 Syracuse points. A closer look shows Syracuse had 10 steals so at least two thirds of the Cal turnovers were very damaging types leading to Syracuse transition opportunities.

Scoop Jardine led the Orange with 22 while Cal’s Jerome Randle, getting a good look by NBA scouts, paced all with 25 points.

The night cap was a tale of two halves. At the break it was 38-24 North Carolina and the Buckeyes (31 % eFG) had to be thankful it was that ‘close’. The second half saw the Big ten reps find the range, especially beyond the arc . The Buckeyes shot an eFG pct of 65% and made it too close for Roy Wiliams & Co.

Certainly, there were breakdowns on the Carolina side. but Ohio state found a late game rhythm and hit a succession of treys in the final two minutes to turn a 3-4 possession contest into a one possession affair. The late jim Valvano used to discuss how shooters facing a double digit deficit often loosten up , relax and start to hit shots. When the game is close they tend to tighten up. Carolina was consistent efficiency wise for their two halves. The Tar Heels posted a 103 mark the first half en route to a 101 finish. Ohio State was dramatically different.

	Efficiencies
	1st Half	2nd Half	Game
Ohio State	67	126	97

North Carolina, led by Deon Thompson’s 17 points, had 4 players in double figures. OSU’s Evan Turner (I almost typed Evan Turnover) had an interesting line. Turner led all scorers with 23 points, pulled down 11 boards but had 10 turnovers.

OSU meets Cal in the consolation with an interesting ACC-Big East battle, North Carolina and Syracuse set for the championship.