Syracuse Post Game: Streaks

Bombs Away!
Both Villanova and Syracuse entered the game eager to break the streak each had begun with their last outing. A streak of the losing kind. For both the number stood at one and neither wanted to see it go to two. Villanova played to their offensive and defensive numbers in the first half, establishing an 11 point (40-29) lead going into the intermission. The last 20 minutes, an offensive festival for both (or a clinic on how to deconstruct the other team's defense?), saw the two Top 10 teams match point-for-point to the end of the game, ended at 83-72, with Villanova's 11 point first half cushion intact.

Forward Kris Joseph, back from an injury that sidelined him for Syracuse's loss to Pittsburgh, scored his game-high 23 points on 8-15 overall shooting, and 3-5 from the line. Senior Forward/Center Rick Jackson recorded a double-double (16 points and 15 rebounds) in the losing cause. Villanova was paced by sophomore guard Maalik Wayns, who scored 21 points on 6-11 shooting and 5-5 from the line in a nice bounce-back from his performance in Storrs Monday. The two Coreys, Stokes and Fisher, scored 16 points apiece, while senior forward Antonio Pena, the fourth Wildcats to score 10 or more points, chipped in 10 points and a team-high seven rebounds in the winning effort.

The blogosphere registered a few post games, including "postgame -- Villanova 83 Syracuse 72" from the Nova Blog and VUHoops.com posted their recap with a poll for player grades. Best I can tell the polls are still open, so go over and vote if you are inclined. All's quiet in the Orange blogosphere, a commentary-less series of videos from the Troy Nunes...blog (complemented by a commentary on 3 pointers) and some post game musings from Otto's Army excepted. The Athletic Department website posted the official boxscore and the AP wire story, "No. 7 Wildcats Overpower No. 3 Syracuse, 83-72", led off with Villanova's three point "zone busting" shooting, and followed with the crowd size. There are a handful of good quotes from Corey Fisher as well. The breakdown by halves...

Opponent:		Syracuse University
	1st	2nd	Game
Pace	33.9	32.2	66.1
	Offense				Defense
	1st	2nd	Game		1st	2nd	Game
Rating	118.1	133.6	125.7		85.6	133.6	109.0
eFG%	72.0	50.0	61.0		46.3	55.7	51.6
TORate	20.7	9.3	15.8		25.8	20.7	24.2
OR%	11.1	43.8	32.0		25.0	61.1	44.1
FTA/FGA	16.0	80.0	48.0		22.2	17.1	19.4
FTM/FGA	16.0	72.0	44.0		14.8	11.4	12.9
ARate	64.3	45.5	56.0		80.0	41.2	55.6
Blk%	14.8	4.0	12.0		7.4	2.9	4.8
Stl%	5.7	3.2	6.3		8.6	5.9	7.3
PPWS	1.49	1.25	1.35		0.97	1.14	1.06
2FG%	50.0	57.1	53.8		29.4	63.2	47.2
3FG%	61.5	27.3	45.8		50.0	31.3	38.5
FT%	100.0	90.0	91.7		66.7	66.7	66.7
%2FG	30.0	37.2	33.7		34.5	55.8	47.2
%3FG	60.0	20.9	39.8		51.7	34.9	41.7
%FT	10.0	41.9	26.5		13.8	9.3	11.1

Green highlighting identifies the good elements of Villanova's game yesterday, while red highlighting identifies elements that are below the levels the team has played to to date. Pace was the second surprise. I believed the 'Cats would push at every opportunity, preventing the Orange from getting into the 2-3 zone. 66.1 possessions is a pace Syracuse should have wanted -- it suggests Villanova would have to score out of offensive sets, and not transition. The box score confirms the Wildcats scored four points (only -- all in the second half) on fast breaks, with two coming on Maurice Sutton's jam at the end of the game.

Same Result, Two Paths
The yellow highlighting on the teams' second half ratings and four factors shows how the same efficiency can be attained by different means. Both teams scored 43 points on (about) 32 possessions, but each employed different methods to attain their result. Villanova did not convert shots as efficiently as the Orange (50.0% vs. 55.7% eFG% above), but the Wildcats limited turnovers (9.3% vs. 20.7%) and got to the line more frequently (80.0% vs. 17.1%). Though the Orange "won" in two of the four categories (offensive rebound rate -- 61.1% vs. 43.8% -- was the second category), those two were not enough to outscore the 'Cats in the second half and cut into their first half lead.

8 Minutes & 43 Seconds of the First Half...
At the 14:43 mark of the first half with the score 9-7 Syracuse, the Wildcats put on a run of nearly nine minutes during which they outscored the Orange 27-11 and built a 14 point lead (34-20) on 14 possessions...

	FGM	FGA	FTM	FTA	Pts	Poss	PPP	OReb	TO
Villanova	9	12	2	2	27	14	1.93	0	1
Syracuse	4	9	1	2	11	13	0.85	0	3

The best sequence of possessions for Villanova in the game (1.93 points per possession equates to a 193.0 offensive rating), but actually typical for the entire first half for Syracuse (see "By Halves" table at top). Villanova was a deadly 6-7 from beyond the arc, scoring 21 of the 27 points in the run from that distance, including two streaks of 3-3 from beyond the arc. Though the Orange would outscore the Wildcats 9-6 to close out the first half, they would play virtually the entire second half from a 6-to-14 point hole, sustaining a single rally that cut Villanova's lead to four only once, at the 2:41 mark of the second half.

Records, Next Up...
Villanova upped it's to 17-2 overall, 5-1 in conference, remaining a single game off of Pittsburgh's pace. The Wildcats play their third consecutive road game next Wednesday at Providence. Syracuse dropped it's second game running, putting the Orange at 18-2 overall, and 5-2 in conference play. The Orange will host Seton Hall on Tuesday.

Guest Contributor Ray Floriani: Syracuse at St. John's

by Ray Floriani
NEW YORK CITY- It had the billing of a conference showdown. Fourth ranked and undefeated Syracuse visiting a St. John's team, once again starting to get local attention. In the end the Orange showed why they are a top five team and national contender, posting a 76-59 over St. John's at Madison Square Garden.

Thanks Mother Nature!

Both teams entered in the mid-sixty possession range. Syracuse ignited their transition, found open floor opportunities and especially the latter part of the first half and the entire second, attacked the basket.

Outside MSG on a chilly night

The efficiency numbers:

		Off.
	Poss.	Eff.
Syracuse	70	109
St. John's	71	83

The Four Factors:

		FTA
	eFG%	FGA	OR%	TO%
Syracuse	66	9	32	29
St. John's	39	26	30	23

The Garden, media time out

Interestingly both teams entered with a TO rate under 20%. That was not the case tonight. The two clubs struggled with turnovers. The Syracuse number was exceptionally high. But when you limit the opposition to 39% eFG percentage, that is something of a trade off.

Syracuse kept close watch on St. John's guard Dwight Hardy. He scored 12 points but was 4 of 15 from the floor.

St. John's got inside of the patented Syracuse 2-3 early. Eventually adjustments are made and when the Red Storm was forced to take more perimeter looks they had no answer shooting 2 of 12 from beyond the arc.

Brandon Triche and Kris Joseph did the offensive damage for Syracuse. Triche scored 15 and was effective inside or beyond the arc. The sophomore guard was 6 of 11 from the floor including 3 of 6 from three. Joseph netted 18 points on 8 of 11 shooting and added 5 boards.

Rick Jackson had another solid effort that is distinguishing him as one of the conference's better interior players. Jackson enjoyed a double-double with 12 points 10 rebounds.

Syracuse led 36-32 in points in the paint as most of the Red Storm points were produced there or on the line. Orange held a notable 12-4 edge in transition points.

Jim Boeheim of Syracuse praised his club's defensive effort, especially when the offense took time getting in gear.

Steve Lavin of St. John's was pleased with some of the things the Red Storm did, controlling the first 12 minutes and building a seven point lead. 'Sustain', was the key word as Lavin noted you need a 40 minute effort when battling a number four ranked team with the talent of Syracuse.

Syracuse shot 5 of 8 from the line compared to St. John's 15 of 20. You can't foul what you can't catch. Orange had a number of transition opportunities the second half and were able to get great open inside looks even in half court. As a result, fewer trips to the line

Numbers
Syracuse improved to 17-0 (4-0 Big East). St. John's is still a very respectable 10-5 (3-2). Syracuse had four players in double figures led by Kris Joseph with 18 points. Attendance was 14,440. St. John's was led by Justin Brownlee with 13 points. Dwayne Polee II was the only Storm starter to shoot over 50% from the floor. The freshman forward scored 7 points on 3 of 4 shooting. A good turnout following a storm that dropped 10-15 inches in the tri-state area.

Steve Lavin discusses the game with the media

Preview -- Syracuse at Seton Hall

Inconvenient Timing...
...but is there ever a good time for a visit from the Orange? First year coach Kevin Willard is about to find out why fans love the Big East (and the conference coaches hate it) -- there is never an off night. With players sidelined and those available still seeming to be on holiday, the Pirates nevertheless host the Syracuse Orange Saturday at the Rock. Syracuse is ranked #4 nationally, and puts a 15 game winning streak and a 2-0 Big East record on the line. Questions about who would step into the roles vacated by Wes Johnson, Andy Rautins and Arinze Onuaku have been pushed to the back burner (winning streaks have a habit of doing that) as the current roster has stepped up to mold their own style of play -- somewhere on the good side of the "me next" teams of 2006-2009 and the win-by-committee approach favored last season -- and risen to the top again early in conference play. If the Pirate faithful do not look back wistfully to the maelstrom of former Coach Bobby Gonzalez, it is only because those days especially the last ones, were excruciatingly painful. Give Coach Willard another few weeks and an injury or two more, and a few may well break out in a chorus of "Auld Lang Syne". Watching a new coach try to motivate an experienced (but set in their ways?) roster can be painful, and the Pirate Crew are feeling the pain right now.

	Hall		Cuse
Opponent	W/L	Diff.	W/L	Diff.
Cornell	W (H)	+24	W (H)	+20

Not much to compare via common opponents, but the Cornell result is interesting. The Hall came off a road loss to Temple and pummeled the Big Red. Both teams scored in the same neighborhood against the common opponent. Of course the Hall had a healthy Jeremy Hazell. The Oranges' best OOC win was a 14 point victory (72-58) over Michigan State (Big Ten, 9-4, RPI #35) in Madison Square Garden last month. Their best overall win to date was their last game is a 70-58 (+12) win over conference mate Notre Dame (13-2, 2-1, RPI #12). The Orange won the Legends Classic (covered by Rush the Court Live) over the Thanksgiving Weekend. The Pirates' best outing is their 64-55 win over conference mate South Florida (6-10, 0-3, RPI #102). Their loss to Arkansas in the Big East-SEC Challenge (SEC, 10-4, RPI #142) was painful.

Lineups, Rotations...
...Coach Willard uses an eight man rotation (if a nineth man checks in, it is Anali Okoloji, a 6-8 freshman front court project who shows a lot of enthusiasm), with junior point guard Jordan Theodore (6-0, 174 lbs), along with senior off guard Keon Lawrence (6-2, 177 lbs), freshman wing Fuquan Edwin (6-6, 205 lbs) at the #3, senior Jeff Robinson (6-6, 230 lbs) at the #4 and senior Herb Pope (6-8, 236 lbs) at the #5. Lawrence got the nod over senior transfer Jamel Jackson (6-3, 202 lbs) in the Pirates last outing (a 73-54 loss to Louisville), and it appears Coach Willard will try the senior guard again. Jackson will come off the bench, along with fifth year senior Eniel Polynice (6-5, 220 lbs), who decided to play his last season of D1 ball in South Orange. Patrik Auda (6-9, 225 lbs), a freshman Euro-style #4 will probably come off the bench early to spell Pope or lend more height to the front court.

Coach Jim Boeheim has not tinkered with his starting five, opening with 15 wins for the 3rd time in his 35 year tenure at Syracuse has made him a bit conservative perhaps? Sophomore Branden Triche (6-4, 205 lbs) will start at the point, with junior Scoop Jardine (6-2, 190 lbs) at the #2, junior Kris Joseph (6-7, 210 lbs) at the #3, senior Rick Jackson (6-9, 240 lbs) at the #4 and freshman Fab Melo (7-0, 244 lbs) at the #5. The first to sit will be Melo, and when he does (about five or so minutes into the first half), Coach Boeheim will call one of four numbers for his substition. Generally freshman Dion Waiters (6-4, 215 lbs) gets an early nod, with sophomore forward James Southerland (6-8, 210 lbs), freshman forward CJ Fair (6-8, 204 lbs) or (if Boeheim wants to maintain Melo's heighth along the back line) freshman center Baye Moussa Keita (6-10, 213 lbs) getting the nod. Though 15 games those five have drawn minutes (except Providence, where Fair was a DNP) even in the tight games. If the scoring margin goes beyond 20 or so, look for another four as many as four additional players to check in, led by sophomore forward Mookie Jones (6-8, 220 lbs) who has averaged double digit minutes in eight games this season.

By the Numbers, Offense & Defense...
...Syracuse tends to play for 67.9 possessions, just above the D1 average of 67.8 (adjusted according to Ken Pomeroy's Syracuse Team Page), while Seton Hall prefers to run -- 69.9 (see the Hall's page at Ken Pomeroy's site). Neither team should be uncomfortable with a higher possession rate, and though Pomeroy's 69 possession projection does not surprise, 70+ would not be shocking. A "Four Factors" comparison when Syracuse has the ball...

When Syracuse has the ball...
				FTA
	eFG%	TO%	OR%	FGA
Orange O	53.4	16.3	37.0	38.8
Pirate D	44.4	21.1	30.3	33.3

The Orange have one of the elite offenses nationally, ranked #11, according to Ken Pomeroy's Scouting Report. Syracuse is strong shooting the ball (see their eFG%, ranked #45) and getting second chance opportunities, while they are just average (considering the size and athleticism of their front court, surprising) at getting to the line. Their true strength is turnovers -- they don't. The Hall's defense, while not "elite" is rated strongly (#43) by Pomeroy. Shooting and shot defense (the Hall is ranked #45 in shot defense) should be a strength-on-strength match-up for the two teams. If the Cuse can convert easily, the Hall may have trouble keeping up, and if the Pirates can shut down Orange scoring, look for fewer transition points and more half-court offensive schemes. If Seton Hall can force turnovers, so much the better, as that would negate an Orange advantage. The "Four Factors" look at Seton Hall's offense versus Syracuse's defense:

When Seton Hall has the ball...
				FTA
	eFG%	TO%	OR%	FGA
Pirate O	45.8	18.1	29.8	32.6
Orange D	44.0	22.2	30.4	27.1

The Pirates' lack of offense is central to team woes on the court. Adjusted offense is 103.2 (per Ken Pomeroy), ranked #113 for Division 1. While among the top third of the division, they have problems scoring at crucial times during games, and have suffered through scoring droughts.

Want to Beat Syracuse? Then...
Post it on the web as soon as you figure it out. There are 12 Big East coaches very eager to get that information.
1. Slow it down, take away transition scoring opportunities. When possessions are low(er), the score is close(r). Make Syracuse pass the ball in a half-court set for a few possessions to disrupt their rhythm. Against John Beilein's relatively inexperienced Michigan team, the Orange were held to 61 possessions in a three point (53-50) win.
2. Make them miss. Shooting in college ball, like the NBA, is the strongest single determinant for victory. In the five games where the Orange have shot efficiency (eFG%) held to less than 47% their offensive efficiency was 98.6 and their margin of victory was 7.4 points. In the 10 games where they have converted at better than 47% their offensive efficiency is 121.5 with a margin of victory of 21.4 points.
3. Get physical. Syracuse's FTA/FGA rate is 38.8, at #158 they are ranked close to the mean of Division 1. They convert free throws at a fairly mediocre 66.3% (ranked #243, the bottom third in D1). In the three games where their FTA rate > 50%, their margin of victory is 8.4 points. Overall their average margin of victory is 16.9 points.

Want to Beat Seton Hall? Then...
Make them miss. It is that simple. In games where Seton Hall's eFG% is < 44%, the Pirates are 0-8. In games where the Hall's eFG% is 44.7% or higher they are 7-0. Night and day.

Finally...
...The Orange travel very well. I expect the house will be closer to 65%-35% Seton Hall, unless the fan-base is too discouraged to turn out (hopefully that will not happen). A win would certainly reverse a too long trend of Syracuse wins at Seton Hall (in the last 10 games, the margin is 8-2 Syracuse, 1-4 on the Hall's home court) and re-energize the squad. A competitive showing (Pomeroy projects an eight point Syracuse win), would suggest there are more wins than anticipated in the schedule.

I will be live blogging the game for Rush the Court tomorrow at noon. Drop by and chat if you have the chance.

2010-11 Preview -- Syracuse Orange

Too Busy for the Details?
The returning numbers look better than they did going intothe 2010 season...the Orange finished #1 in the conference (regular season) and pulled down a #1 seed in the NCAAs. How can they do better than that? They can't. A solid nucleus is back (but not the senior leadership from last season) and the Orange have the preseason conference ROY, but they will not equal the conference win total nor the finish of 2010. But they can come close.  Prognosis -- A 2nd quartile finish.

3 Years At a Glance
Funny how things work out. A far more talented team returned in 2009, but could not do what the Orange of 2010 achieved. Having Wes Johnson practice with the team for an entire year (NCAA transfer rule) certainly made his transition into Coach Boeheim's system a good deal smoother than a (however talented...) freshman or a JUCO. One of those facets I think is overlooked when considering the impact of a newcomer.

	Returning...
	2011	2010	2009
%Min	55.9	44.1	72.5
%Pts	41.7	44.1	49.5
%FGM	53.0	45.1	70.7
%3FGM	38.9	45.3	49.5
%OReb	57.3	47.1	82.9
%DReb	51.0	47.3	72.5
%TReb	53.0	47.2	75.9

Returning a higher percentage of the minutes, field goals made and rebounds (both ends of the court) than last season, but still comparatively low versus other Big East teams. Can the Orange replace scoring and perimeter shot making for the second season running? The 14% difference between returning minutes and returning points scored is a point of concern. Given the role of Wes Johnson and Andy Rautins in the offense, it is more likely that a committee (rather than 1-2 players) will have to step into that role in the offense. Returning players accounted for some very efficient scoring last season, the potential for a larger role in the offense is high, but newcomers will have to step into several critical areas of the offense and defense.

	According to Pomeroy...
	2009-10		2008-09		2007-08
	#	Rank	#	Rank	#	Rank
Off Eff Conf	110.9	4	109.9	4	103.7	9
Def Eff Conf	99.2	1	101.7	6	102.0	6
Eff Diff Conf	11.7	2	8.2	7	1.7	8
Off eFG Conf	53.7	2	54.5	2	50.4	7
Off TOv Conf	20.6	14	20.2	13	21.2	13
Off OReb Conf	38.3	3	35.6	5	36.7	3
Off FTA/FGA Conf	41.2	7	34.9	6	44.8	2

John Gasaway over at the Basketball Prospectus did a great job of using the stats to show why Syracuse had a great season and I would strongly recommend the reader spend the $10 (more or less) to download the 2010-11 (digital) edition and read the excellent analysis provided for all of the 345 Division I teams. The dramatic improvement of the defense (largely Coach Boeheim's trademark 2-3 zone) is clearly the driver that brought the Orange (back) into the conference elite. The guru formerly known as the Big Ten Wonk did a tremendous job breaking down the defensive numbers (Dean Oliver's four factors played a large role...), but he did leave a crumb or two for me to chew on offensively, and share with the reader. While not "the explanation" for why the Orange did so well, something to consider when Syracuse is working the other side of the ball. Shot efficiency improved from 2008 to 2009, the crucial element for the Orange's two rank jump. While Syracuse maintained their #4 rank from 2009 to 2010, the methods employed to maintain that rank varied. Note shot efficiency (eFG) rank stayed constant even though the actual number declined very slightly. The Orange saw an increase (also modest) in their turnover rate (TOv) and a rather dramatic rise in their ability to get to the free throw line (even though they dropped one rank there as well). The improvement in offensive rebounding (credit to Onuaku and Jackson here) offset the declines elsewhere, suggesting that for the Cuse, offensive rebounding was relatively important. Getting to the line to finish a possession, and nabbing the offensive miss to keep the possession alive more than offset the decline in shot conversion and the modes rise in turnovers. Maintaining a dominant defense will be critical to success in 2011. Offensively, can the Orange improve on their turnovers and shoot better than they did in 2010? A backslide in either will have to be offset by an improvement in offensive rebounding (or getting to the line even more...). Both of those stats however, may be, given the players, pretty close to their "ceiling" already.

	For the Record...
	2009-10			2008-09			2007-08
	W	L	Pct.	W	L	Pct.	W	L	Pct.
Overall	30	5	0.857	28	10	0.737	21	14	0.600
Big East	15	3	0.833	11	7	0.611	9	9	0.500
Post Season?	NCAA Rnd #3			NCAA Rnd #3			NIT Rnd #3

The Orange Nucleus
Coach Jim Boeheim had a tremendous squad to coach last season, one he obviously enjoyed working with. Syracuse will return starters and contributors in both the front and back courts; the question is whether a combination of the returnees and newcomers can duplicate the chemistry and replace the scoring (and rebounds) from last season.

On Offense
Player	Min%	Ortg	Poss%	Shot%	eFG%	OR%	PPWS	FTR%
Kris Joseph	69.6	111.1	19.6	18.4	50.8	7.7	1.14	59.8
Rick Jackson	65.7	108.6	19.6	19.0	59.1	12.7	1.16	34.1
Scoop Jardine	55.6	113.6	22.6	20.7	53.4	1.9	1.15	39.5
Brandon Triche	53.4	106.5	20.8	18.5	58.0	3.8	1.19	41.0
Mookie Jones	12.8	118.2	22.4	27.9	63.2	6.3	1.26	19.4
DaShonte Riley	11.2	90.0	11.6	6.6	60.0	6.4	1.14	73.3

Note the Poss% above -- having five efficient players (ORtgs >105) with Poss% in the range of (high-end) Role Player and (low-end) Significant Contributor (Ken Pomeroy's ratings) is a bit unusual. There is "growth" for all, though looking at Possession rates for Johnson (21.4), Rautins (19.0) and Onuaku (19.2), as Gasaway points out in his preview/analysis is a bit deceptive given that Johnson and Rautins saw far more court time than anyone else on the squad. That difference leaves a modest possessions vacuum that a committee (most likely) will have to cover. Many previewers tab forward Kris Joseph as the strongest breakout candidate, but note that junior guard Scoop Jardine and junior bfc Rick Jackson will most likely be called on early (given their seniority) to step up. Sophomore point guard Brandon Triche will most likely earn more time if he can cut down on his turnover rate, high enough to negate his good assist rate. Sophomore Mookie Jones showed (in albeit very limited minutes) the highest efficiency/usage numbers on the squad, but, like the possession-based stats of Rautins and Johnson, probably distorted by (in Jones' case) the comparatively small amount of playing time. He should see more minutes in 2011, but will face stiff competition from the other returning front court players (and the freshmen). Among the post Midnight Madness casualties, DaShonte Riley may red shirt this season, pending the results of foot surgery announced at Syracuse Media Day. The injury is not tracable to a specific incident, may go back to last season. Riley could expect to see his minutes expand with the departure of Arinze Onuaku, but should he decide to sit and rehabilitate this season, Jackson and two freshmen (see below) can expect to fill the gap.

On Defense
Player	Min%	DR%	Ast%	TO%	Stl%	Blk%
Kris Joseph	69.6	13.7	10.2	18.2	1.6	2.8
Rick Jackson	65.7	16.5	11.2	21.2	8.2	2.2
Scoop Jardine	55.6	7.2	32.5	21.4	0.3	3.0
Brandon Triche	53.4	5.3	21.7	25.7	0.3	2.3
Mookie Jones	12.8	10.0	13.0	16.8	2.4	3.8
DaShonte Riley	11.2	11.4	10.2	36.9	11.1	0.7

Everyone of the returning players listed has a double digit assist rate, unusual and a strong sign of the "share and share alike" philosophy in 2010. While the turnover rates were also a bit high (especially freshman point guard Brandon Triche and low post reliever DaShonta Riley), but given the strong efficiency ratings, those turnovers were not a significant drag on Syracuse's overall offensive efficiency (best in conference). Among the other rotation/bench players returning, sophomore front court player James Southerland, Nick Resavy (a Junior), Griffin Hoffmann a sophomore guard, Matt Lyde-Cajust -- a sophomore forward and junior guard Brandon Reese.

Significant Additions
The Orange faithful will see seven new faces at various times this season, six of which belong to freshmen and one to a Division II transfer. Both Fab Melo, a 7-0, 240 pound center "imported" from Brazil and 6-4, 215 pound Dion Waiters figure to make the earliest and most favorable impressions. Expect Melo to start alongside Rick Jackson, giving the Orange one of the tallest (and more block-forward) front courts in the conference. When Waiters is in the back court with either Triche or Jardine, expect him to take the off guard role in the offense. Noted as a scorer, Waiters will have to supply some of the three point firepower provided for (four of the past five years) by Rautins. The wing will see CJ Fair compete with Jones, and Joseph for minutes on the wing. The 6-7, 195 #3 tore an ACL in the summer of his (HS) junior year, and is still developing as a player. More an athlete and transition scorer than a set shooter or low post player, he will be valued for his ability to crash the glass and put back. Well regarded but nevertheless a work in progress, 6-11 210 pound Senegal native Baye Moussa Keita will most likely follow Arinze Onuaku's development path and show shot blocking and rebounding skills before he assumes a more assertive role in the offense. 5-10 point guard Nolan Hart out of Albany, NY and 6-4 back court player Russ DeRemer, son of a Syracuse rower, round out the true freshmen. Junior transfer Matt Tomaszewski, a 6-8 215 pound #3/#4 who logged two seasons at the University of Tampa before coming in and sitting for hte 2009-10 season. He will have two years of eligibility beginning this season and should provide even more front court depth.

Explode If...
1. Find a replacement for Andy Rautins and Arinze Onuaku. Though unacknowledged, the Cuse that played through the first three rounds of the NCAAs was not the team that swept through the Big East (and their out of conference schedule). The two senior leaders anchored the squad, set the tone and provided a lot of confidence to the other five players who made up the "regular" rotation. Onuaku's absence was obvious from the first round on. Both seniors took (at different times) red shirt seasons for injuries, and so were associated with the program for five, rahter than four seasons. They saw good and bad times and set, along with Johnson, an example for unselfish play. Statistically replacing Rautins' threes, Johnson's driving scores and Onuaku's rebounds will not be as difficult as replacing their leadership.
2. Kris Joseph and Rick Jackson have great seasons. Both have shown the abilty to score efficiently in (relatively) smaller offensive roles. They will have to "grow" those roles from (about) a 19% possession rate to about 24% while still able to score efficiently. Jackson, outstanding on the offensive glass is merely very good for defensive boards. He will have to, despite Fab Melo's presence contribute more on toward defensive rebounds as well.
3. Fab Melo and Dion Waiters (and CJ Fair) live up to preseason expectations.

Implode If...
1. Chemistry issues within the squad and individual agendas have historically given the Orange faithful squads whose whole was less than the sum of the individual parts. Last season was the diametric opposite and frankly a pleasure to watch (except when they were pansing the Wildcats in front of a national audience...). Hopefully the returning players learned the lesson and will continue the example this season.
2. Injuries. Though this is a deeper squad (and should run a deeper rotation than 2010), losing key players or a combination of several players from among Joseph, Jardine (who was lost for a season already), Jackson and Triche could spell big problems. Riley is already sidelined for at least some part of (if not the whole) season.

Crucial Run/Bellweather Games
Syracuse's first road trip will be a run down to Atlantic City, NJ for Thanksgiving Weekend at the Legends Classic. The three other teams in the field, Michigan (Syracuse's first opponent), and UTEP or Georgia Tech in the second game, will provide national exposure and experience on a neutral court, but not much by way of competition. The challenge of the out of conference (OOC) will come December 7 in Madison Square (the Jimmy V Classic) against Michigan State. This should be a great game as the Sparten back court should match up well against the Cuse rotation. Something of a baptism of fire for Dion Waiters and Triche/Jardine. 13-0 (hardly pie-in-the-sky) would put the Orange squarely on the national radar going into Big East play. Anything short of 11-2 would suggest a tougher go through the conference than many previews foresee.

Mirrors dealt to the Cuse this time around include traditional rival Georgetown, Villanova (third time in four seasons) and traditional whipping boy, Seton Hall. Play with the Hoyas and Pirates should be very interesting, because preseason projections have clustered those three, and for those who put the Orange in the first quartile, Villanova (and Georgetown?) would be head-to-head quartile rivals. Against Seton Hall, Syracuse will have to continue to dominate to maintain the upper hand in any head-to-head comparisons. Ditto for Georgetown and Villanova. Going 6-0 would be quite a season, but a very remote possibility. 4-2 would be a positive result, though 3-3 might be more realistic. Opening the Big East regular season with a two game homestand (hosting Providence and Notre Dame) should put the Orange up 2-0. The last seven games in January should be telling for Syracuse's prospects. The Orange take to the road for two games, Seton Hall and St. John's...in Queens (Coach Lavin's no fool), return home to host Cincinnati, run down to Pittsburgh for a date with the Panthers (very important, their only meeting with Pitt), back to the Carrier Dome for another two game homestand (Villanova and closeout with mirror Seton Hall) and finally back on the road for three games, the first with Marquette. Going 4-3 or better is mandatory if the Orange harbor visions of finishing in the first quartile (five or fewer losses are typical for double bye teams), because the backend of their schedule will have them play the Hoyas twice, host West Virginia and face Louisville and Villanova on the road. That run in Frebruary will most likely yield a minimum of two losses, and quite possibly one or two additional.

Rising Seniors -- Nine to Watch

What I Am Looking For
Austin Freeman won't make this list. Neither will Jimmy Butler nor Tim Abromaitis. They are names already; they made one of the "All Big East" Teams last March. Everybody knows them, and everyone will have them on their "Best in" or "Top" list in the next three months. They are already a bullet on ESPN's "Keys to the Game" pre-game analysis, and will probably continue their bullet status this season. They made their marks during their freshmen or sophomore or junior seasons. Those "name" guys decided to come back and...
a. Finish their education;
b. Improve their draft status;
c. Help their team win a Big East Championship/NCAA Championship;
d. Savor one last year of...before heading out into the world to earn a living;
e. All of the above.

Corey Fisher, Jeremy Hazell and the other recognized junior and senior players, veterans all, make the Big East Conference the best conference for watching basketball. But every season a Hilton Armstrong, or an Andy Rautins, a Jon Wallace or a Dante Cunningham lands in the national press (and picks up a post season Big East award or two) seemingly out of nowhere. Invisible to many except their team's fans, these seniors tend to start somewhere back in that freshman pack, or labor in the vineyards of a low ranking team, but unlike their classmates, they (and their team?) improve quietly every season. By Pomeroy's classification system they may start as a "Role", "Limited Role" or even "Invisible" player, and grow into a "Major" or "Go-to Guy" player over the course of their four years. Pomeroy discusses growth "probabilities" in "Putting Individual Efficiency into Perspective" over at The Basketball Prospectus back in 2007. These guys tend to push at the upper limit of their growth curve each season. The Jon Wallaces and Orinze Onuakus -- are drawing a good share of the minutes at their position going into their senior seasons and they are drawing somewhere between 18% - 20% of the possessions when they are on the floor. They may lurk off the MSM's radar, but their teammates know who they are, look for them on the floor...and trust them with the ball.

			On Offense...
Player	School	%Min	ORtg	%Poss	%Shot	PPWS
Marshon Brooks	PC	66.2	113.9	22.8	25.9	1.10
Scoop Jardine	Cuse	55.6	113.6	22.6	20.7	1.15
Antonio Pena	Nova	61.9	112.3	20.3	18.1	1.22
Chris Wright	GTown	87.8	111.7	23.2	24.4	1.14
Gilbert Brown	Pitt	39.3	110.9	23.2	23.5	1.19
D.J. Kennedy	John's	77.4	110.4	25.8	23.5	1.15
Rick Jackson	Cuse	65.7	108.6	19.6	19.0	1.16
Brad Wanamaker	Pitt	79.6	105.8	24.7	21.0	1.08
Dwight Hardy	John's	48.1	102.4	23.7	28.0	1.06

Marshon Brooks fits the profile, each season his role with the Friars has, for the most part, grown. Securing 22.5% of the possessions and over a quarter of the shots last season would put Brooks on an "All" team if his team finished 0.500 or better in conference play. The Friars didn't, and Brooks will probably put in his last season playing for a team that may well post fewer than the four "W"s they earned in conference play in 2010. Pitt's Gilbert Brown is another outlier. I set 40% as the cutoff for consideration this season, largely on the notion that if the player had not been able to draw that many minutes, there must be some other coach-player issue at work. Brown actually logged about 58.8% of the PT as soon as he became academically eligible. His numbers through what was obviously the toughest part of Pittsburgh's schedule were impressive. Each season Brown has faced a challenge putting in an entire season, and when he could (his sophomore season) there was a logjam at his spot. If he can stay healthy, this might well be the payout year for those among the Pitt faithful who did not falter. Everyone knows Chris Wright out of Georgetown already, but this is one reason I prefer the more traditional, five player "All Team" recognition. Had the voters had 22 slots (instead of 15) to fill, Wright would definitely made it. Rush the Court's Zach Hayes ranks Wright #9 on his Big East Top 20 list. After a red shirt year (injury), and a prolonged un-mentored "orientation" sophomore season Wright's role and efficiency has improved each season. I was not sure about Villanova's Antonio Pena, while his shooting efficiency stats are strong (and his offensive rebounding rate is outstanding) his "share" of shot taking is a little light at 18.1%. That the staff tended to limit his minutes in tight games is not reassuring either. But Pena is a senior, and Villanova's staff tend to hand a good deal of responsibility to their upperclassmen. 'Tone is a solid player who can be very good (when he holds onto the ball). Maybe he needs a little faith...in himself.

			Four Factors...
						FTA
Player	School	%Min	eFG%	OR%	TO%	FGA
Marshon Brooks	PC	66.2	53.1	6.5	14.9	23.1
Scoop Jardine	Cuse	55.6	53.4	1.9	21.4	39.5
Antonio Pena	Nova	61.9	57.7	10.4	20.4	61.4
Chris Wright	GTown	87.8	52.6	2.1	16.5	35.7
Gilbert Brown	Pitt	39.3	56.0	4.7	17.9	50.3
D.J. Kennedy	John's	77.4	52.3	6.2	18.6	49.0
Rick Jackson	Cuse	65.7	59.1	12.7	21.2	34.1
Brad Wanamaker	Pitt	79.6	48.0	6.3	21.3	57.8
Dwight Hardy	John's	48.1	50.6	2.2	15.5	22.8

Check out Rick Jackson's offensive rebounding rate (OR%). The "average" varies by position, and offensive systems can emphasize offensive rebounding (Villanova's) or de-emphasize it (Michigan) depending on the priorities set by the staff. According to Ken Pomeroy 21.4 was the highest in Division 1, 12.8 is Top 100 and 8.7 is Top 500. In any system 10 is very good, and Jackson grabbed 12.7% of the offensive boards when he was in the game. For both Jackson and teammate Scoop Jardine (and Pitt's Brad Wannamaker and Villanova's Pena...) was turnovers. In a low possession system (Pitt/Wannamaker) that can be a killer. For Jardine the redeeming attribute was his assist rate (Top 50 per Pomeroy); for Jackson, it was his rebounding, at both ends of the court.

		Miscellaneous...
Player	School	Ast%	DR%	Blk%	Stl%
Marshon Brooks	PC	10.1	9.8	1.7	2.7
Scoop Jardine	Cuse	32.5	7.2	0.3	3.0
Antonio Pena	Nova	7.5	21.0	2.3	2.2
Chris Wright	GTown	22.6	8.0	0.8	2.5
Gilbert Brown	Pitt	17.9	10.9	1.0	1.3
D.J. Kennedy	John's	21.5	16.3	2.2	2.2
Rick Jackson	Cuse	11.2	16.5	8.2	2.2
Brad Wanamaker	Pitt	31.3	14.0	0.9	2.3
Dwight Hardy	John's	8.7	8.0	0.3	1.8

St. John's duo DJ Kennedy and Dwight Hardy labored long and hard last season. Kennedy has been a Johnny for three seasons, and worked every season to put the Red Storm into the conferences' upper division. Hardy transferred in, sat a season and will play his second and final season in Queens. St. John's fans have valued Kennedy's scoring efficiency and hustle, while lamenting his (occasional) lapses in situational judgement. The problem may be correctable if, with that last timeout in a game, the staff sends the squad back out with a play that has a good chance of success.

Hits & Misses...Last Year's List
A few of last summer's "Nine to Watch" seniors had very good years. Andy Rautins and Orinze Onuaku (& Wes Johnson, &...everyone involved, everyone involved) led the Orange to the top of the conference as the entire team had a breakout season. An untimely injury to Onuaku, their anchor in the low post, derailed what might have been a deep NCCAA Tournament run. Pittsburgh's Jermaine Dixon increased his possession and shot rates dramatically, but his efficiency crashed, and his minutes declined through the season. Villanova's Reggie Redding returned from his fall suspension, and assumed much the same role his senior season as he did his junior season. He finished with about the same percentage of possessions, shots (role player status) and offensive rating (104). The Wildcats were good, but did not appear to get better as they moved through the season. Reggie is playing in Cyprus. Stanley Robinson's role in Connecticut's offense did grow significantly, as the senior took more possessions and shots in the Husky offense. He improved his offensive rating in the process, but as a whole the team stepped back to an 18-16 record and, for the second time in five seasons, NIT status. Robinson was taken by the Orlando Magic in the second round of the NBA draft. Stix Mitchell watched his role with the Pirates disappear when Jeff Robinson became eligible and took an increasingly large role in the Hall's offense and defense. By the end of the season Robinson (and freshman Ferrakon Hall) took most of the available minutes at the #3. Seton Hall's record improved and they received an NIT bid after losing in the quarter-final round of the Big East Tournament. After a Big East Tournament post game outburst however, Mitchell was dismissed from the team, and did not play in the NIT.

Preview 2009-10 -- Syracuse Orange

Too Busy for the Details?
Syracuse said goodbye to three players at the end of last season who seemed to thrive on the drama. Whether it was a 6 overtime win over Connecticut in the Big East Tournament, a dramatic bucket that turned an embarrassing mid-major loss into a win, a dunk at the end of a blowout game or a late evening off campus confrontation with coeds, a late season AWOL just before a big conference road game. Jonny Flynn, Erick Devendorf and Paul Harris could thrill and infuriate the Orange Nation simultaneously...several times a week. Coach Boeheim has 2 red shirts (Mookie Jones and Scoop Jardine), along with a transfer and 3 true freshmen ready to step into the vacated slots. The 2010 edition of the Orange may be a touch less talented, but they will certainly be far more coachable. Prognosis -- A 2nd quartile finish.

3 Years At a Glance
The distribution of minutes and offensive/defensive statistics resemble peaks and valleys for a reason -- the Orange have had problems establishing player continuity since (roughly) 2006. Fans may want to "blame" the talent level -- Green & Flynn left early for the draft, while critics may want to blame the players -- Harris & Devendorf left early for...(Europe)?; Wright left the program; Jardine & Edelen were suspended at points in their careers. Or blame the injuries, as at one time or another Onuaku, Rautins and Jardine have rehabbed injuries to the overall detriment of the team and their own development.

	Returning...
	2010	2009	2008
%Min	44.8	72.5	49.0
%Pts	41.4	70.8	49.4
%FGM	45.6	70.7	46.2
%3FGM	45.3	49.5	56.0
%OReb	47.9	82.9	38.3
%DReb	47.7	72.5	46.9
%TReb	47.8	75.9	44.5

The returning "profile" looks much like the 2008 squad. The big difference is that 2008 team had to replace their forwards and center positions, the 2010 team will have to replace the back court and wing spots (note the differences in %3FGM & offensive rebounding between 2008 and 2010).

	According to Pomeroy...
	2008-09		2007-08		2006-07
	#	Rank	#	Rank	#	Rank
Overall ORtg	117.3	11	114.3	37	113.1	48
Overall DRtg	91.7	29	94.3	65	90.9	28
Big East ORtg	109.9	4	102.7	9	99.6	9
Big East DRtg	101.7	6	102.0	6	95.4	5
Four Factors --
All Off. eFG%	54.4	16	52.7	55	50.6	144
All Off. TOv%	20.6	192	21.6	213	20.8	142
All Off. OReb%	35.6	78	39.0	15	35.7	83
All Off. FTA/FGA	39.3	92	42.0	36	1.7	56
All Def. eFG%	46.7	67	49.2	136	43.7	7
All Def. TOv%	18.8	270	19.8	229	19.8	241
All Def. OReb%	35.5	274	31.9	122	36.7	297
All Def. FTA/FGA	26.2	10	29.5	44	31.1	62
Four Factors --
BE Off. eFG%	54.5	2	50.4	7	49.4	8
BE Off. TOv%	20.2	13	21.2	11	20.4	10
BE Off. OReb%	35.6	5	36.7	3	31.4	13
BE Off. FTA/FGA	34.9	6	44.8	2	38.5	7
BE Def. eFG%	48.4	5	49.1	7	43.5	2
BE Def. TOv%	18.8	8	19.1	11	18.5	10
BE Def. OReb%	37.1	13	30.4	3	36.7	16
BE Def. FTA/FGA	30.0	5	35.5	7	35.1	11
Miscellanious
All Gms Cons	19.4	140	18.7	110	15.9	22
All Gms Luck	+.015	104	-.038	240	-.076	309

If Paul Harris and Jonny Flynn could not persuade the staff to abandon Coach Boeheim's 2-3 zone in favor of man-to-man, this group, as athletic as they are, have no hope at all. Symptomatic of zone defenses, the Orange did not force turnovers, foul much or rebound (defensively) at quite the levels that their talent and athleticism would suggest. The zone is intended to diminish the opponent's offensive effectiveness by taking away easy scoring opportunities inside the arc. To beat the zone an opponent has to attack the zone's specific weak spots (and score) or shoot effectively from the outside, thereby forcing the zone to extend to the point where it falls apart.

	For the Record...
	2008-09			2007-08			2006-07
	W	L	Pct.	W	L	Pct.	W	L	Pct.
Overall	28	10	0.737	21	14	0.600	24	11	0.686
Big East	11	7	0.611	9	9	0.500	10	6	0.625
Post Season?	NCAA/Rnd 3			NIT/Rnd 3			NIT/Rnd 2

The Orange went back to the NCAAs last season after a 2 year "hiatus" in the NIT. Though they put together the wins (conference and OOC) in 2007 & 2008, the slate, combined with the extended early season homestands, undermined their bid. The Orange upgraded their OOC slate last season, and left the confines of the Carrier Dome to take on opponents at neutral sites. This season will see them do the same.

The Orange's Nucleus
Coach Jim Boeheim may find the quiet next fall a little unsettling. While a significant percentage of the minutes, points and rebounds are gone, they go with what had to be one of the highest maintainance group of players ever to pass through his program. Rick Jackson aside, the others (including the red shirted Scoop Jardine) are for the most part complement pieces -- "glue guys", as their possession and shot percentages suggest (< 20 is more consistent with a "role" player on offense), rather than headliner/go-to guys.

On Offense
Player	Min%	Ortg	Poss%	Shot%	eFG%	PPWS	OR%	FTR%
Rautins	67.5	105.6	18.6	21.6	53.3	1.10	1.5	13.6
Onuaku	64.8	107.5	18.2	18.1	66.7	1.21	12.6	46.4
Jackson	53.4	107.2	18.5	18.3	62.3	1.21	11.0	34.5
Joseph	29.2	88.2	16.3	15.5	46.1	0.91	7.0	50.5

Rautins, Onuaku and Jackson all logged good minutes on the court, but were not the 1st or 2nd (or 3rd?) options on offense. Others drew the defense and took the pressure shots. A successful 2010 campaign will depend on how many are able to step into "Major Contributor" roles. If past is prelude, look for Rautins to get more green lights to hoist from beyond the arc. Will he be as successful if he draws additional defensive attention? From possessions and shots, Onuaku and Jackson may also take up more responsibility for the offense, evolving into "Significant Contributors" (about 20-23% of the possessions and shots), though the better bet is Jackson -- if he can avoid foul trouble.

On Defense
Player	Min%	DR%	Ast%	TO%	Stl%	Blk%
Andy Rautins	67.5	10.5	18.0	20.8	0.6	2.8
Arinze Onuaku	64.8	16.6	4.3	17.8	5.3	1.0
Rick Jackson	53.4	16.9	7.9	21.6	7.3	2.3
Kris Joseph	29.2	11.9	6.1	20.2	1.8	3.7

Significant Additions
The departure of Flynn, Devendorf and Harris will be filled (to some degree) with returning players. There are several newcomers who will help. The Orange's big get is 6-7 Wesley Johnson, a #3 transfer from Iowa. Coach Boeheim also has three true freshmen to compete for available spots. 6-3, 210 lb Brandon Triche may be advertised as an off guard, but Coach Boeheim intends to give him the ball early on in the fall. DaShonte Riley, a 6-11 220 lbs #5 out of Detriot, Michigan may be the more heralded of the entering class, but will most likely play behind the senior, Arinze Onuaku and Rick Jackson in the front court rotation. Prep player James Southerland, a 6-7, 190 lb #3 graduate of Notre Dame Prep in Massachusetts will add depth to the wing.

Explode If...
1. Wesley Johnson is as good as advertised & can hit an outside shot. In 2007 Coach Boeheim found himself constantly having to choose between playing Rautins and Harris at the #2/#3. Harris was the more aggressive and skilled defender, and a better slasher on offense. But Rautins was the better passer and could hit the outside shot, and did not embarrass himself in the 2-3 zone employed by the staff. Harris sat. If Johnson can combine the best of Rautins (hit the outside shot and pass well) with the best of Harris (athletic penetrator and good defender), the Orange should be a better team.
2. Scoop Jardine and Brandon Triche take charge. Flynn's value was certainly as a scorer, but the jet quick point guard was a good ball handler and floor general. Jardine will most likely get 1st shot at the point. If he can prove that he can run the team responsably, Triche can learn without pressure.
3. Rick Jackson takes a big developmental step. Jackson has shown promise through 2 seasons. With possessions and shots hanging at 18% (or so), he is poised to grow into a major/significant contributor offensive role this season. The Orange will benefit greatly if he can convert possessions into points efficiently.

Implode If...
1. Chemistry has been an issue the past three seasons. The historic parties are gone this season, but should a new schism develop on the squad, it could doom another season.
2. There will be games when someone will have to take that shot. Faced with that situation 3 games into his freshman season, Jonny Flynn stepped up and did not flinch. Since that game, Flynn and Harris were the leaders (for better or worse). Both are gone, but those games will happen this season, and someone will have to step up. Onuaku is not particularly vocal, he may not call for the ball when the time comes, but does Jardine (or one of the freshmen) have the credibility to rally the team? For this group of returning players, none has had to call for the ball or take that shot. Flynn, Harris and Devendorf were eager to take charge in those situations.

Crucial Run/Bellweather Games
Syracuse will face traditional foe Colgate early in November, and host Albany and Robert Morris in a regional for the 2K Sports Classic before heading down to New York City to face California in the semi-finals. Depending on the result, the Orange will face either North Carolina or Ohio State in the Championship/Consolation game. The Golden Bears are a middling PAC-10 team, but Ohio State or North Carolina should be a good test for the young Syracuse squad on a neutral (sort of...) court. Syracuse will also travel to Tampa, Florida to face Florida in the Big East/SEC Challenge December 10. Those three games, against other power conference teams, should give the Orange Nation a good idea of how the young squad stands going into the Big East regular season. The 2010 schedule reflects Coach Boeheim's more consistent effort to create a mix of OOC games, at home, neutral and away, and with high and mid-major opponents, rather than a steady diet of local cupcakes. A perfect season going into Christmas should suggest a Happy New Year for the Syracuse fan-base. Three or more losses on the other hand, suggest the team will have more work to do in what might become a very challenging Big East schedule.

Syracuse will jump right into the frying pan when they open the Big East regular season with a road game at Seton Hall. The Pirates have hopes as high as the Orange for 2010, a win will fuel someone's March Dreams, though a loss (while it might hurt the pride) would not be fatal to Syracuse's post season prospects. The Orange return to the Carrier Dome for a three game homestand, facing Pittsburgh, Memphis (in their last OOC game) and South Florida. Anything less than 3-0 would be cause for concern. The next road trip, their last three game stint in the Big East regular season, will see the Orange face (in order) Rutgers, West Virginia and Notre Dame. The Scarlet Knights would appear to be the best target of opportunity in the trio, but the humiliation from last season's beating should be good fodder for Rutgers' Coach Fred Hill. The RAC might not be as easy as prior seasons, especially if the Syracuse squad lacks confidence. A 1-2 record would seem "about right", with anything better (3-0? 2-1?) cause for optimism. If Syracuse goes into the last week of January with a Big East record of 3-3, their "path" to a 9-9 (or better) season will rely a good deal on opportunity wins against struggling conference members. 4-2 or better and the Cuse will definitely be in conversations about the post season. At 2-4 or worse, the Orange will have to prevail in four to six of their remaining home games -- a slate that includes Marquette, Georgetown (maybe not as easy as prior seasons), Providence, Connecticut, Louisville, Villanova & St. John's. I count three "probables" in that list...they will need to find another one or two (or so). Among their remaining road games, only their stop in Chicago (1/30)...and maybe Providence 2/23) look like good win opportunities. The balance -- against Cincinnati, Georgetown and Louisville will be tough even for an experienced team.

Rising Juniors -- 10 to Watch

After the Rush
Looking at the rising juniors makes me a bit nervous. How many times am I going to have to write "X" is going to have a breakout season...this time...honest before he actually does? Like other "10 to Watch" postings, I am not going to note the 1st or 2nd All Big East Teamers, I want to look at the guys who have fair-to-good (or better) scoring efficiencies, but are stuck in the "role player" category. They might be on the threshold of a breakout (or more likely solid starter/regular-level) season. The suddenly a stud player doesn't develop every season. Particularly for the four year players, just making progress every season can spell "star" status by the senior season. Villanova's Dante Cunningham is a great example of the constantly progressing player who was good coming in, but became great by his senior season. I am not going to include transfers/JUCOs who enter with upper classmen status (I covered a few of them in a previous post), but rather will look only at those players who have 1-2 Big East seasons under their belts.

On Offense...
Player	Team	%Min	ORtg	%Poss	%Shots	eFG%	PPWS	OR%	FTR%
Butler	MU	48.9	131.2	14.1	10.8	51.4	1.22	12.7	104.7
Stokes	Nova	56.9	115.3	17.5	21.5	55.2	1.18	3.1	24.6
Freeman	GTown	72.5	115.2	19.5	21.7	53.4	1.15	5.2	41.0
Knowles	Ville	41.7	112.9	16.9	21.0	56.3	1.12	5.3	9.9
Brooks	PC	52.5	107.9	22.9	26.4	50.9	1.07	7.0	28.3
Jackson	Cuse	53.4	107.2	18.5	18.3	62.3	1.21	11.0	34.5
Kennedy	John's	86.2	106.1	21.2	20.1	45.6	1.05	5.5	56.2
Wanamaker	Pitt	47.4	103.8	18.0	13.9	54.2	1.18	2.2	49.7
Koshwal	DPU	77.7	100.0	23.5	20.0	52.7	1.08	12.2	45.0
Evans	John's	68.6	96.7	21.9	21.1	51.4	1.04	11.7	44.6

By all accounts Jimmy Butler will pick up more time and possessions. Pomeroy's growth curve suggests the window (to 95% confidence) should be just shy of 20% of possessions next season (or down to about 10%, which would suggest he was benched in favor of someone else...). Butler helped himself with good offensive rebounding (how many of his FGMs were putbacks?) and benefited from playing in a rotation with 4 others who no doubt drew much more defensive attention than he. Like Butler, Louisville's Preston Knowles and Villanova's Corey Stokes start on the low side (16.9 and 17.5 respectively) for possessions, but each is extremely efficient (see their ORtgs) and has an upper edge in their "growth windows" of around 24%. And given the attrition suffered by Louisville and Villanove, each should have an opportunity to get more possessions (and shots).

On Defense...
Player	Team	%Min	%Ast	TO%	%Blk	%Stls	DR%
Jimmy Butler	MU	48.9	6.6	10.0	2.5	1.4	10.8
Corey Stokes	Nova	56.9	8.2	15.0	1.4	1.7	13.6
Austin Freeman	GTown	72.5	14.6	13.9	0.6	1.8	11.3
Preston Knowles	Ville	41.7	10.8	13.8	0.5	3.3	8.2
Marshon Brooks	PC	52.5	12.5	15.0	3.1	2.6	10.9
Rick Jackson	Cuse	53.4	7.9	21.6	7.3	2.3	16.9
D.J. Kennedy	John's	86.2	17.7	17.4	1.3	2.6	16.9
Brad Wanamaker	Pitt	47.4	18.0	29.1	1.3	2.4	17.0
Mac Koshwal	DPU	77.7	12.7	21.5	1.4	2.5	20.8
Sean Evans	John's	68.6	5.0	20.3	1.1	2.2	17.6

UConn big men typically take most of the oxygen out of a discussion of Big East shot blockers. Next season may be Rick Jackson's (and Syracuse's) turn. Brad Wanamaker's %Shot is light (13.9), suggesting he was way down on the priority list in the team's offensive scheme, but he did log 47.4% of the minutes at a guard/forward spot and had a relatively efficient 103.8 ORtg, with a shooting efficiency of 54.2...way too high actually, given his offensive rating. If Wanamaker gets his turnovers under control he will contribute in 2010. With the loss of Blair, Fields and Young, there will be chances for Wanamaker to shoot and score. Given his assist rate, steal rate and (especially) defensive rebounding, Wanamaker is too useful in too many wing spots to leave on the bench. With the loss of Dar Tucker, DePaul's Mac Koshwal will get a lot of touches next season as the Blue Demons will look around for scorers to pick up Tucker's %Poss and %Shot. Koshwal is already among the best in the conference for his rebounding, offensive and defensive. Ready or not he will have to take a larger than 20.0% role (a "major contributor" according to Ken Pomeroy's DePaul Team Report) for scoring too next seaon.

And Then There's...
Jeremy Hazell (All Big East 3rd Team), Dominique Jones (All Big East Honorable Mention) and Corey Fisher (All Big East 6th Man) drew honors last season and will have some visibility (and expectations) going into next season. I struggled with the last three or four spots on the list, leaving off Paris Horne (St. John's), Dion Dixon (Cincinnati) and Antonio Pena (Villanova) in favor of Sean Evans (St. John's), Jimmy Butler (Marquette), Brad Wanamaker (Pittsburgh) and Preston Knowles (Louisville). I am operating under the assumption that incoming recruit Lance Stephenson will clear the NCAA (academics and amateur status) and displace Dixon, if not 5 minutes into Fall practice, then earlier. Given the Villanova staff's preference for playing upper classmen over freshmen, Pena ought to get a long look at #4/#5, as Yarou gets up to speed.

Why?...
The St. John's rising junior cohort -- there are six players total among the 22 (rising juniors) I began with -- is well balanced. They share the ball and shooting responsibilities pretty well, with possessions ranging from 23 (Rob Thomas) down to 17 (Malik Boothe), 4 had right around 20% of the possessions. The shot distribution is wider (25.9 down to 13.9), but again there are 4 who take about 20% of the shots when they are on the floor -- balanced enough to make defense a headache. I included DJ Kennedy and Sean Evans in my Ten to Watch. Paris Horne took 26% of the shots in 2009 when he was on the floor. Lack of other options, may have been one reason for his prolific shooting, though his ability to hit 51% of his FGAs inside the arc was most likely the other. If Horne can significantly improve on his 33% conversion rate from beyond the arc (while maintaining his 26% share of the shooting), he will make one of the All-Big East (not to mention my ooops list) teams next March. As of now however I am looking for candidates on the Red Storm squad who are most likely to "grow" their role in the offense, and Horne already takes a large share of it. Justin Burrell and Malik Boothe share a few of the same problems. They both logged a good number of minutes, but each has problems converting their FGAs into FGMs. Combined with high turnover rates (23.7 & 31.8 respectively -- see Pomeroy's St. John's Team Report), that leaves each with low (<100.0) offensive ratings (ORtg). For Burrell there is the additional problem of playing in the low post. St. John's under Norm Roberts has become known for physical play in the paint, and Burrell, with 4.7 fouls per 40 minutes (which goes with his 4.7 fouled per 40 minutes), continues the tradition. Villanova's Dante Cunningham had problems with being effective until he managed to control his fouling problem. The same may hold for Burrell. The "other forward" playing in tandem with Burrell, Sean Evans, made my list largely because he logged better numbers than Burrell. Whether shot efficiency, rebounding, even fouling, Evans posted more efficient numbers. Opponents may foul him less next season if he makes his free throws more consistently (51% is terrible, and very correctable). And if those opponents are less inclined to foul, Evans may convert more of his FGAs. Rob Thomas is the last of the Johnnies I considered. His numbers are good (%Poss -- 23.0; %Shot -- 25.4; ORtg -- 108.8; eFG% -- 51.1), but his minutes are low, especially relative to the other St. John's players in the rotation. Thomas, coming off a red shirt freshman season, logged far more minutes in 2009 than he did in 2008. He will get more in 2010. His numbers, very promising at 28.9% of the time at his position, will will really help the Johnnies if they stand up when his PT is doubled. Dele Coker, St. John's 7th rising junior, logged a modest 22.7% of the playing time at the #5. If the Burrell-Evans tandem continues to improve, Coker may see even less time next season.