I ran a log5 calculation using the Pythagorean Winning Percentages for Big East games only and came up with a probability of 54-46 in favor of Syracuse. When I ran a scoring/pace projection using Pomeroy's adjusted stats (season long) I have a pace of 74 possessions for the game with an adjusted score of 74-72 in favor of Villanova.
In both games Villanova had an offensive efficiency of about 102+. The difference was defense (or Syracuse offense if you are an Orange fan...). In the first game Nova's defensive efficiency was 89.4. In the second it was 122.0. Ouch. Which team shows up today?
Best of luck to the Wildcats!
[update at 4pm EDST] Apparently not! From a very quick look at the ESPN box scores it appears the 'Cats rained 3s and grabbed control of the boards. When the official box is posted I will be back with a few more thoughts. Georgetown is next!
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