The Wildcats take their second trip to the Midwest this season, as they take on the Blue Demons of DePaul University at the Rosemont Arena outside of Chicago on Wednesday evening. This has been a very rough season for the Demons. Many in the Blue Demon Nation believed a more mature nucleus combined with "the answer" at point guard would move DePaul up out of the conference's bottom quartile. Nearly two months into conference play and the Demons are still hunting for their first conference win. An 8-5 start has been buried under an avalanche of 14 consecutive conference losses. Despite a vote of confidence from (DePaul's) AD Jean Ponsetto, Demon Coach Jerry Wainwright has to feel pressure mounting as his team drifts away. Villanova narrowly leads this series (11-8) which dates back to 1939, well before the advent of the Big East Conference. Long runs by each team have given way to a rather too polite exchange of wins. And if the latter trend holds, it is Villanova's "turn" to lose...
Common Opponents, Good Wins, Bad Losses...
DePaul (8-19, 0-14, RPI #190) is in the midst of a spirit-draining 0-14 run which began with conference play. A winning margins comparison, team-by-team might be useful. Or not. Maybe a smaller, RPI-based comparison will highlight the differences...
DePaul does not have any "bad" losses (losses to teams ranked 200 or lower in the RPI), but they have a lot of losses. The worst loss, most likely, was to conference rival Rutgers, who is currently ranked #178 in the RPI...
Lineups, Rotations...
...27 games into the season, and Coach Wainwright is still searching for a workable rotation. Over the past 6 games Coach Wainwright has put between 9 & 11 players (11, 10, 10, 10, 9 & 10) into the game. Generally Between 6 and 9 of those players will get 10 or more minutes. Some lineup/rotation instability can be laid to injury -- senior Jabari Currie (6-4, 215lbs) suffered a seasion-ending injury early this month. As one of my early season posts suggested however, DePaul's problems began even while Currie was healthy.
The Demon staff has started two wings, with or without a point. Sophomore Dar Tucker (6-4, 210lbs) is a program building block who will garner a good deal of attention by All Big East Team voters (and NBA draft mavens?), if the staff can keep him focused and motivated. Tucker has started virtually every game since his freshman year. He is the Demon's leading scorer this season and caught my eye once or twice this season with spectacular individual performances. Starting alongside Tucker will most likely be junior Will Walker (6-0, 180lbs), newly rediscovered this season. Walker started at the point for a good part of his freshman season, gradually working his way to the bench as his shot (and confidence?) went south. He was virtually invisible last season, playing behind Tucker and then senior Drealon Burns. Walker has the body of a point and the mind of a scorer, the perfect wing (if he can get a bit of space to get his shot off). Who plays point depends on which way the staff wants to go. If they are happy with that back court, expect Walker to bring the ball over mid court, but not set up the offense. If the staff wants a "true" point guard, expect either redshirt freshman Mike Bizoukas (6-1, 175lbs) or true freshman Jeremiah Kelly (6-1, 175lbs) to bring the ball up. Given the collective heigth of the players, that backcourt works largely when matched against squads of similar size. At one point or another the staff has tried about every combination (in pairs or trios...) of those 4.
The dynamic in the front court is similar, though without the injury wildcard in play. Sophomore Mac Koshwal (6-10, 240lbs), like Tucker an All Big East Rookie Team member last season will start at the #4/#5. At various times the staff has tapped redshirt freshman Kene Obi (7-2, 260lbs), true freshmen Krys Faber (6-11, 265lbs) and/or Devin Hill (6-9, 210lbs), sophomore Mario Stula (6-7, 210lbs) or senior transfer Matija Poscic (6-10, 235lbs) to start alongside Koswal. No matter who in that cohort starts (lately Faber, Proscic and even Obi have gotten the nod), expect to see most, if not all, in the game for some amount of time. Faber, Hill and Poscic have appeared in at least 24 of DePaul's 27 games, logging at least 200 minutes in the process. Obi and Stula have appeared in 18 and 19 games respectively; Stula has also logged at least 200 minutes in his appearances.
The staff has started Dante Cunningham and Scottie Reynolds in virtually every game this season. Expect that to continue into the DePaul game. Complementing Dante in the front court will most likely be Dwayne Anderson who has started since December (after a rehab period for a foot injury) and Shane Clark. The staff tabbed Clark to start seven games ago (versus Cincinnati) and Shane has justified that confidence by taking over the offensive boards and chipping in a number of well-timed buckets. Hardly a unanimous choice at the time (the 'Cats were coming off an upset of then #3 Pittsburgh), Clark has quieted critics with a series of dominating performances on Villanova's offensive boards. Expect Reggie Redding to start next to Scottie Reynolds in the back court. The Coreys, Fisher and Stokes will see time in the back court (Fish) and wing (Stokes), and given the size of DePaul's front court, I would also expect to see Antonio Pena get time.
By the Numbers, Offense & Defense...
At 66.2 possessions per game (adjusted), DePaul is very close to the D1 average (66.7) for possessions. It is one of the few stats that the Demons can lay claim to the description of "average". Descriptions of their offense and defense tend to be less complementary. The Demons are ranked #214 for offensive efficiency (98.7 adjusted, per Ken Pomeroy), the lowest in the Big East. Looking at the elements that most influence that rating...
The Demon's shooting efficiency (eFG%) is low -- rarely do you find a team's offensive eFG% below their opponent's defensive eFG%. That is not a good sign for DePaul. On it's way towards the Demon's basket, the ball will most likely pass through the hands of Dar Tucker (Shot% 34.1), Will Walker (Shot% 24.4) and/or Mac Koshwal (Shot% 21.5). 80% of DePaul's FGAs will be launched by one of those three if they are on the floor together. That may have proven be a bit too easy for opponents to prepare for, as the other two fellows on the floor (whoever they are...) split that last 20% of the shots (how closely should they be guarded?). Teams have to prepare for three scorers, not five. Walker and Tucker have Shot% (24.4 & 34.1) greater than their Poss% (20.1 & 31.8) and neither has an assist rate higher than 12.0 -- which suggests that once they get the ball, they either lose it, launch it, or go to the line for a free throw attempt -- they don't look for that open teammate. The Demons don't turn the ball over much (their strongest element on offense), most likely because they don't pass much -- their assist rate (assists per FGM) is 48.4, good for a #293 ranking.
The "Four Factors" look at Villanova's offense versus DePaul's defense:
Note the Demons tend to give up a larger portion of the defensive rebounds than the Wildcats normally gather -- and the 'Cats are pretty good (ranked #51) offensive rebounders, while the Demons are pretty bad (ranked #325). If this plays out, expect Shane Clark to have a monster night on the boards. If Shane is in position to putback, he could have a high scoring night. Turnover rates also repeat the anomaly of rebounding and Demon shot offense versus 'Cat shot defense -- the Wildcats don't turn it over much while the Demons don't force many turnovers (confirmed by their Stl% -- a very average 9.8). If the Wildcats offense is on from the tip off, this could be a big night for one or two Nova players...
Want to Beat DePaul? Then...
The leading indicator is again shot efficiency. Translate FGAs into points and the Wildcats should win.
1. Hit your shots -- by far the single most significant factor. The Demon's defensive eFG% is 51.6 -- when their opponent scores at a rate >51.6 the Demons are 1-13. Villanova's offensive eFG% is 52.0 -- the Demons have not won a game this season when the opponent has shot 52.0.
2. Contest their shots -- the 'Cats have given a few poor shooting teams very big nights (Rutgers). Holding down the scoring efficiencies for Tucker, Koshwal and especially Walker (their 3 point shooting wing) can work to close the Blue Demons out early. When DePaul shoots to Villanova's defensive eFG% (47.0) or lower, they are 6-12.
3. Get the 2nd Chance Opportunities -- a secondary marker for DePaul is opponent's rebounding rate. As suggested earlier, the Blue Demons are not especially strong rebounders under the opponent's basket. Villanova's offensive rebounding rate is 36.7 -- when the 'Cats rebound 36.7% or more of their misses, they have a 12-0 record. In games where their opponents have rebounded at Villanova's rate or better, the Demons are 4-14.
Finally...
...When playing on the road the Wildcats have usually let the home team get an early lead. While DePaul has not shown it can close out any opponent in the last six weeks, the Wildcats have climbed back into a game after an early misstep. There should be room for an error early, though it would be disappointing to see the squad let down. This might be a good game for Scottie and Pena to work themselves back into form, and to see if Anderson and Clark can keep their focus. The Demons are in a soul crushing place. They have virtually no chance for post season play, and after being pounded for six weeks, they may even wonder if they can put together two decent halves of the kind of basketball they would like to play.
Per Ken Pomeroy's Villanova Team Page, this game should go for about 67 possessions (average for D1, within the Demon's comfort zone), with Nova taking a 16 point decision. Villanova has had a difficult time winning those "expected to win" games by the projected margin (they save the blowouts for the unexpected games...). I will interested to see if they play up to expectations, or down to the competition.
Other Previews...
The DePaul website has an html-formatted preview and a (much) more detailed pdf-formatted preview.
Nova News produced a game preview.
Common Opponents, Good Wins, Bad Losses...
DePaul (8-19, 0-14, RPI #190) is in the midst of a spirit-draining 0-14 run which began with conference play. A winning margins comparison, team-by-team might be useful. Or not. Maybe a smaller, RPI-based comparison will highlight the differences...
| vs RPI | Conference | ||||||
| RPI | 1-50 | 51-100 | >100 | Overall | Home | Away | |
| DePaul | 190 | 0-10 | 0-4 | 11-8 | 0-14 | 0-7 | 0-7 |
| Villanova | 9 | 5-5 | 5-0 | 15-0 | 10-4 | 6-1 | 4-3 |
DePaul does not have any "bad" losses (losses to teams ranked 200 or lower in the RPI), but they have a lot of losses. The worst loss, most likely, was to conference rival Rutgers, who is currently ranked #178 in the RPI...
Lineups, Rotations...
...27 games into the season, and Coach Wainwright is still searching for a workable rotation. Over the past 6 games Coach Wainwright has put between 9 & 11 players (11, 10, 10, 10, 9 & 10) into the game. Generally Between 6 and 9 of those players will get 10 or more minutes. Some lineup/rotation instability can be laid to injury -- senior Jabari Currie (6-4, 215lbs) suffered a seasion-ending injury early this month. As one of my early season posts suggested however, DePaul's problems began even while Currie was healthy.
The Demon staff has started two wings, with or without a point. Sophomore Dar Tucker (6-4, 210lbs) is a program building block who will garner a good deal of attention by All Big East Team voters (and NBA draft mavens?), if the staff can keep him focused and motivated. Tucker has started virtually every game since his freshman year. He is the Demon's leading scorer this season and caught my eye once or twice this season with spectacular individual performances. Starting alongside Tucker will most likely be junior Will Walker (6-0, 180lbs), newly rediscovered this season. Walker started at the point for a good part of his freshman season, gradually working his way to the bench as his shot (and confidence?) went south. He was virtually invisible last season, playing behind Tucker and then senior Drealon Burns. Walker has the body of a point and the mind of a scorer, the perfect wing (if he can get a bit of space to get his shot off). Who plays point depends on which way the staff wants to go. If they are happy with that back court, expect Walker to bring the ball over mid court, but not set up the offense. If the staff wants a "true" point guard, expect either redshirt freshman Mike Bizoukas (6-1, 175lbs) or true freshman Jeremiah Kelly (6-1, 175lbs) to bring the ball up. Given the collective heigth of the players, that backcourt works largely when matched against squads of similar size. At one point or another the staff has tried about every combination (in pairs or trios...) of those 4.
The dynamic in the front court is similar, though without the injury wildcard in play. Sophomore Mac Koshwal (6-10, 240lbs), like Tucker an All Big East Rookie Team member last season will start at the #4/#5. At various times the staff has tapped redshirt freshman Kene Obi (7-2, 260lbs), true freshmen Krys Faber (6-11, 265lbs) and/or Devin Hill (6-9, 210lbs), sophomore Mario Stula (6-7, 210lbs) or senior transfer Matija Poscic (6-10, 235lbs) to start alongside Koswal. No matter who in that cohort starts (lately Faber, Proscic and even Obi have gotten the nod), expect to see most, if not all, in the game for some amount of time. Faber, Hill and Poscic have appeared in at least 24 of DePaul's 27 games, logging at least 200 minutes in the process. Obi and Stula have appeared in 18 and 19 games respectively; Stula has also logged at least 200 minutes in his appearances.
The staff has started Dante Cunningham and Scottie Reynolds in virtually every game this season. Expect that to continue into the DePaul game. Complementing Dante in the front court will most likely be Dwayne Anderson who has started since December (after a rehab period for a foot injury) and Shane Clark. The staff tabbed Clark to start seven games ago (versus Cincinnati) and Shane has justified that confidence by taking over the offensive boards and chipping in a number of well-timed buckets. Hardly a unanimous choice at the time (the 'Cats were coming off an upset of then #3 Pittsburgh), Clark has quieted critics with a series of dominating performances on Villanova's offensive boards. Expect Reggie Redding to start next to Scottie Reynolds in the back court. The Coreys, Fisher and Stokes will see time in the back court (Fish) and wing (Stokes), and given the size of DePaul's front court, I would also expect to see Antonio Pena get time.
By the Numbers, Offense & Defense...
At 66.2 possessions per game (adjusted), DePaul is very close to the D1 average (66.7) for possessions. It is one of the few stats that the Demons can lay claim to the description of "average". Descriptions of their offense and defense tend to be less complementary. The Demons are ranked #214 for offensive efficiency (98.7 adjusted, per Ken Pomeroy), the lowest in the Big East. Looking at the elements that most influence that rating...
| When DePaul has the ball... | ||||
| FTA | ||||
| eFG% | TO% | OR% | FGA | |
| Demon O | 45.3 | 18.6 | 32.9 | 33.5 |
| Wildcat D | 47.0 | 21.7 | 30.6 | 37.9 |
The Demon's shooting efficiency (eFG%) is low -- rarely do you find a team's offensive eFG% below their opponent's defensive eFG%. That is not a good sign for DePaul. On it's way towards the Demon's basket, the ball will most likely pass through the hands of Dar Tucker (Shot% 34.1), Will Walker (Shot% 24.4) and/or Mac Koshwal (Shot% 21.5). 80% of DePaul's FGAs will be launched by one of those three if they are on the floor together. That may have proven be a bit too easy for opponents to prepare for, as the other two fellows on the floor (whoever they are...) split that last 20% of the shots (how closely should they be guarded?). Teams have to prepare for three scorers, not five. Walker and Tucker have Shot% (24.4 & 34.1) greater than their Poss% (20.1 & 31.8) and neither has an assist rate higher than 12.0 -- which suggests that once they get the ball, they either lose it, launch it, or go to the line for a free throw attempt -- they don't look for that open teammate. The Demons don't turn the ball over much (their strongest element on offense), most likely because they don't pass much -- their assist rate (assists per FGM) is 48.4, good for a #293 ranking.
The "Four Factors" look at Villanova's offense versus DePaul's defense:
| When Villanova has the ball... | ||||
| FTA | ||||
| eFG% | TO% | OR% | FGA | |
| Wildcat O | 52.0 | 18.7 | 36.7 | 44.0 |
| Demon D | 51.6 | 19.0 | 38.3 | 24.7 |
Note the Demons tend to give up a larger portion of the defensive rebounds than the Wildcats normally gather -- and the 'Cats are pretty good (ranked #51) offensive rebounders, while the Demons are pretty bad (ranked #325). If this plays out, expect Shane Clark to have a monster night on the boards. If Shane is in position to putback, he could have a high scoring night. Turnover rates also repeat the anomaly of rebounding and Demon shot offense versus 'Cat shot defense -- the Wildcats don't turn it over much while the Demons don't force many turnovers (confirmed by their Stl% -- a very average 9.8). If the Wildcats offense is on from the tip off, this could be a big night for one or two Nova players...
Want to Beat DePaul? Then...
The leading indicator is again shot efficiency. Translate FGAs into points and the Wildcats should win.
1. Hit your shots -- by far the single most significant factor. The Demon's defensive eFG% is 51.6 -- when their opponent scores at a rate >51.6 the Demons are 1-13. Villanova's offensive eFG% is 52.0 -- the Demons have not won a game this season when the opponent has shot 52.0.
2. Contest their shots -- the 'Cats have given a few poor shooting teams very big nights (Rutgers). Holding down the scoring efficiencies for Tucker, Koshwal and especially Walker (their 3 point shooting wing) can work to close the Blue Demons out early. When DePaul shoots to Villanova's defensive eFG% (47.0) or lower, they are 6-12.
3. Get the 2nd Chance Opportunities -- a secondary marker for DePaul is opponent's rebounding rate. As suggested earlier, the Blue Demons are not especially strong rebounders under the opponent's basket. Villanova's offensive rebounding rate is 36.7 -- when the 'Cats rebound 36.7% or more of their misses, they have a 12-0 record. In games where their opponents have rebounded at Villanova's rate or better, the Demons are 4-14.
Finally...
...When playing on the road the Wildcats have usually let the home team get an early lead. While DePaul has not shown it can close out any opponent in the last six weeks, the Wildcats have climbed back into a game after an early misstep. There should be room for an error early, though it would be disappointing to see the squad let down. This might be a good game for Scottie and Pena to work themselves back into form, and to see if Anderson and Clark can keep their focus. The Demons are in a soul crushing place. They have virtually no chance for post season play, and after being pounded for six weeks, they may even wonder if they can put together two decent halves of the kind of basketball they would like to play.
Per Ken Pomeroy's Villanova Team Page, this game should go for about 67 possessions (average for D1, within the Demon's comfort zone), with Nova taking a 16 point decision. Villanova has had a difficult time winning those "expected to win" games by the projected margin (they save the blowouts for the unexpected games...). I will interested to see if they play up to expectations, or down to the competition.
Other Previews...
The DePaul website has an html-formatted preview and a (much) more detailed pdf-formatted preview.
Nova News produced a game preview.
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