Guest Contributor Ray Floriani -- Preseason NIT Finals

by Ray Floriani

NEW YORK CITY -- The shot chart the last eight minutes of the game showed Syracuse with nine field goals, Kris Joseph hitting five of them. The senior forward was instrumental in the Syracuse's 69-63 victory over Stanford in the Pre-Season NIT championship at Madison Square Garden.

The court at Madison Square Garden

The scores:

Consolation Game...
Virginia Tech	59		57	Oklahoma State

Championship Game...
Syracuse	69		63	Stanford

The possessions and efficiency:

		Off.
	Poss.	Eff.
Stanford	69	91
Syracuse	72	96

Beside Joseph, the victory was predicated on good old full court pressure defense. The Cardinal had an eight point lead with under seven minutes to go and appeared to be in control. Syracuse then went into the press that forced turnovers, created quick scores and accelerated the pace. As Syracuse coach Jim Boeheim pointed out, Stanford was doing a great job controlling the clock with possessions in the 30-35 second range. Down eight that late , it would have been very difficult to come back if the possessions continued at that pace.

Joseph had a game high 18 points, earning Most Outstanding Player honors. Those five field goals in the latter eight minutes came from varying areas. There was a three pointer, two mid range jumpers and two closely defended penetrations in the paint.

MVP Kris Joseph of Syracuse

Syracuse did have an eFg percentage of 51%. Regardless, Boeheim feels his offense or improvement of it, is priority one. The Orange were guilty of 21 turnovers, an extremely high 29% TO rate. The Cardinal struggled even greater in that area with 24 turnovers and an astounding 35% TO mark.

Johnny Dawkins' Pac 12 representatives did pound the boards with a 50% offensive rebounding percentage. Syracuse was close behind with 47% led by Fab Melo with 5 offensive boards, and the versatile Joseph adding four.

Syracuse -- specifically Jim Boeheim -- fans

Stanford's Josh Owens a 14 points per game scorer, struggled with a 4 point (2 of 7 shooting) performance in 31 minutes.

A satisfying tournament for Syracuse. Not only due to taking home the championship but facing two good teams, Virginia Tech in the semis and Stanford in the final. In the latter contest, how Syracuse pulled it out was very gratifying. Now, it's back to the offensive 'drawing board'.

Coaches Johnny Dawkins and Jim Boeheim post game

The consolation gave us a hard fought one possession contest.

The pace and efficiency:

		Off.
	Poss.	Eff.
Oklahoma State	56	102
Virginia Tech	61	97

Two major keys here. Travis Ford's teams like to get out and push the pace. Virginia Tech favors a half court environment and Seth Greenberg's group dictated tempo. Oklahoma State entered the game averaging 72 possessions and were held to 16 less than their norm. On the afternoon, Oklahoma state was limited to two fast break points.

Other big factor was the offensive glass. Virginia Tech started slow looking at an 8-0 deficit after the first four minutes. The Hokies continued to work inside and gradually wore down the Cowboys. Virginia Tech had a 48-37% advantage in offensive rebounding percentage. Dorian Finney-Smith, a 6-8 forward, did appreciable damage for tech with 8 offensive rebounds.

Tech, interestingly, only shot 35% eFG percentage. Given their rebounding edge and a tidy 18% TO rate, it's not a huge surprise they were able to pull this contest out and exit MSG with that well earned split.

The Honors (with their final game Manley efficiency):

MOP	Kris Joseph, Syracuse	22
All Tournament Team:	Dion Waiters, Syracuse	10
	C. J. Fair, Syracuse	12
	Aaron Bright, Stanford	13
	Erick Green, Virginia Tech	11

Markel Brown of Oklahoma State was not selected to the All-Tournament team but did lead the consolation game scorers with 19 points. His Manley efficiency checked in at an impressive 23 (largely due to the sophomore guard's 10 rebounds).

'Stat Stuffer' Melo
Fab Melo, Syracuse's sophomore center drew praise for his play in the final. The seven-footer played 32 minutes and scored 6 points (3 of 6 shooting) with 9 rebounds, 3 blocks and 3 steals. His final Manley efficiency, a very commendable 16. Second on the Orange in the championship game.

Street view from the pressroom,
New York on Black Friday

Rising Sophomores -- Ten to Watch

"Rising Sophomores" or "Rising" Sophomores?
Classes have resumed, these 10 are by class sophomores now. The only "rising" they will do when the 2011-12 games commence in November will be visibility, to their fans (if they are not noted already in a parcel of season previews...) and perhaps to the media when the boxscores are posted. Don't look for Jeremy Lamb here, the Big East All-Conference Rookie Teamer had a pretty good tournament in Latvia this summer (even if Team USA did not medal). The same goes for Sean Kilpatrick, Shabazz Napier, Gilvydas Biruta and Cleveland Melvin...Big East All-Rookies all. Using Pomeroy's classification system as a guide, I am scouting the "Role" or "Significant Contributor" players, players who took about 14%-24% of their team's shots when they were on the floor last season. Sometimes the possessions might be a bit light (*cough* Bryce Cotton), or even the minutes (), but with 2011 teammates moving on the roles will shift for some of the Big East Conference members, and more than a few of these players could grow into "Major Contributor"s over the course of the course of next season -- though most probably won't. Pomeroy discusses growth "probabilities" in "Putting Individual Efficiency into Perspective" over at The Basketball Prospectus back in 2007. Many thanks to Ken Pomeroy for the data at his website.

			On Offense...
Player	Coll	%Min	ORtg	%Poss	%Shots	PPWS
Bryce Cotton	PC	36.8	112.8	12.2	14.3	1.01
Gorgui Dieng	Ville	31.6	112.7	18.5	16.6	1.22
C.J. Fair	Cuse	42.3	109.5	17.6	18.0	1.12
Eric Atkins	NDU	62.5	109.2	15.3	13.1	1.06
Nate Lubick	GTown	48.9	108.9	13.3	10.9	1.17
Dion Waiters	Cuse	39.3	107.6	21.3	24.4	1.05
Talib Zanna	Pitt	23.4	106.7	18.2	16.3	1.10
Roscoe Smith	UConn	62.3	106.2	14.4	15.0	0.98
Fuquan Edwin	Hall	61.4	97.2	17.3	20.1	0.97
Gerard Coleman	PC	71.4	91.5	19.6	20.9	0.92

An unintended consequence of the failed Joseph Young recruitment, then Providence Head Coach Keno Davis found himself picking through the last few "untakens" in August of 2010. A well-regarded off guard Bryce Cotton was still "available", but eligibility issues had severely degraded the Arizona native's value to the BCS-level programs. Signed literally days before the start of classes for the Fall 2010 semester, Cotton was cleared to play by the NCAA, and the Friars had themselves a pretty good guard. Cotton spent a good piece of the season working his way into the rotation (no doubt in large part from his abysmal three point conversion rate, 25.9%), but even Davis could not overlook a decent two point conversion rate (51%) and some defensive skills. Cotton is not a strong breakout candidate, but he should earn more minutes and a larger role (more than the "invisible" 12.2% possession rate from 2011) in the no doubt retooled Friar offense rookie head coach Ed Cooley will unveil for 2012. Short of scholarships and the clear loser in the fight for the #3 spot in the Husky lineup (a brush with the law was no help either...), sophomore Jamal Coombs-McDaniel packed his bags at the end of the spring semester and headed out to Hofstra, leaving Roscoe Smith as the his-to-lose small forward for 2012. Though overshadowed by fellow freshmen Shabazz Napier and Jeremy Lamb, Smith had a promising opening campaign. Smith can help his profile (and no doubt draw more possessions) if he can improve his shot accuracy (note his 43.8% eFG%, due to a 30% conversion rate from beyond the arc, coupled with an underwhelming 43.1% two point conversion rate). Louisville's roster going into the 2011 season was a mess. In addition to the "usual" preseason injury list, the Coach Pitino also lost 5th year senior transfer Roburt Sallie and freshman Justin Coleman due to NCAA eligibility issues. Also among the NCAA-mandated casualties, Gorgui Dieng was, as of October 5, inelibigible to suit up. In Dieng's case Coach Pitino appealed, and in an uncharacteristically good turn of fortune, the Cardinals won and Dieng played the season. Though he played a bit better than 30% of the minutes in the low post, note that he was out five games due to a head injury sustained during the West Virginia game in late January. The injury may have set the center-in-waiting back a bit, but since Terrence Jennings moved on at the end of the spring semester, Dieng will move into the role. While his rebounding (and block rate) numbers are impressive, his offense is efficient enough to warrent a larger role in the offense.

			Four Factors...
						FTA
Player	Coll	%Min	eFG%	OR%	TO%	FGA
Gorgui Dieng	Ville	31.6	61.8	13.2	18.9	47.3
Talib Zanna	Pitt	23.4	56.3	16.3	18.3	59.2
Nate Lubick	GTown	48.9	56.0	7.9	24.1	44.0
C.J. Fair	Cuse	42.3	54.6	10.0	15.4	42.4
Dion Waiters	Cuse	39.3	48.4	2.6	15.2	25.3
Eric Atkins	NDU	62.5	48.3	2.3	20.0	50.7
Fuquan Edwin	Hall	61.4	46.3	3.3	11.7	23.8
Bryce Cotton	PC	36.8	45.3	3.1	8.6	34.9
Gerard Coleman	PC	71.4	44.5	3.2	18.1	31.6
Roscoe Smith	UConn	62.3	43.8	8.5	14.6	33.0

Someone will man the low post for the Panthers this season. Khem Birch may be the flavor of the month in Pittsburgh, but look for either Dante Taylor (one of nine juniors featured in an earllier post) or Talib Zanna to start with the other gathering over 40% of the playing time. Individually either would start for at least half of the teams in the conference. Together they give Coach Dixon 10 fouls and 40 minutes of low domination. And that is bad news for anyone playing Coach Dixon's squad this season. A side-b-side favors Taylor in most respects, and given that both have offensive rebound rates of 16+% is very bad news for opposing centers. Zanna's one advantage is fouls, giving and taking, with very little fall-off in the other offensive categories. With more playing time the sophomore's game should develop to the point where Pitt fans will hardly miss McGhee. Georgetown's Julian Vaughn is gone, leaving the low post up for grabs, sort of. Look for Nate Lubick, who pulled down nearly 49% of the minutes in a forward/center rotation, to split Vaughn's minutes with senior Henry Sims, junior Hollis Thompson and a slew of freshmen forwards. A key for Lubick's progress in 2012 will no doubt be his assist rate, 12.1% last season. As a forward/center in a system that values passing as a principal offensive weapon, should Lubick's assist rate rise to somewhere in the 15-18% range, the fans and staff will take it as a sign that he "gets it". Though very well regarded by the scouting services going into Syracuse, point guard-in-waiting Dion Waiters was supposed to fit in a three guard rotation with Scoop Jardine and Brandon Triche to learn the college game under Coach Beoheim. If the season had gone to script, the three should have formed a potent combination that would have allowed any two on the court for any possession to set the table and run the offense while the other roamed the perimeter. Waiters logged a surprisingly low 39% of the minutes in a season that showed promise but a few false starts. The freshman was his own worst enemy at times, and with Michael Carter-Williams waiting in the wings (the next heir apparent to Jonny Flynn?), this could be a crucial season for the sophomore. Coach Boeheim also brought in a slew of wing/forwards, making a crowded rotation from last season even more competitive. CJ Fair logged solid numbers in his freshman campaign, but even with Mookie Jones consigned to the deep bench, Fair will have to function in a rotation that includes junior James Southerland, senior Kris Joseph and a handful of freshmen hopefuls.

		Miscellaneous...
Player	Coll	Ast%	DR%	Blk%	Stl%
Eric Atkins	NDU	23.6	5.9	0.1	1.5
Dion Waiters	Cuse	17.3	8.0	0.8	4.1
Nate Lubick	GTown	12.1	13.8	1.5	0.8
Gerard Coleman	PC	8.9	7.9	0.5	1.7
Gorgui Dieng	Ville	8.2	18.8	13.7	1.7
Fuquan Edwin	Hall	7.5	11.4	1.7	2.8
Bryce Cotton	PC	5.5	7.8	0.0	2.4
C.J. Fair	Cuse	4.1	13.0	4.8	2.6
Roscoe Smith	UConn	3.3	13.7	4.9	1.2
Talib Zanna	Pitt	3.0	17.5	3.1	1.4

Notre Dame's point guard Eric Atkins, Providence off guard Gerald Coleman and Seton Hall's small forward Fuquan Edwin stepped into larger roles than usually expected of freshmen. For Coleman and Edwin, the minutes were large even if the role was closer to "Role Player" level, but neither produced efficient offensive numbers. Edwin's numbers should improve in his second year with Coach Kevin Willard. For Coleman (and Cotton), the future is a bit less certain, as the Friars replaced the basketball staff in the off season. How those two fit with the system and routines/policies established by Coach Ed Cooley will most likely determine how they do over the next season. Atkins played a limited role in the Irish offense (per his Poss%, 15.3%), confined to largely bringing up the ball and setting up the offense. His assist rate was top 500 (per Ken Pomeroy) 23.6%, confirming that veteran players shouldered the major responsibility for scoring. Expect Atkins to be more assertive in 2012.

What About...?
Syracuse's center and 2011 preseason Rookie of the Year selection Fab Melo saw very limited action, even aa he started most of the Orange's games. Prospects are that he will share the low post with fellow sophomore Baye Moussa Keita. Rebounding aside, neither was essential to the Orange's scoring last season. Marquette off guard Vander Blue had a credible season, but faded near the end. Freshman fatigue perhaps? Center Davante Gardner on the other hand blossomed in the late season, seeing more minutes as the season progressed, becoming almost an equal partner with junior Chris Otule. Gardener may move ahead of Otule this season, as he showed better offensive skills. Gardener's progress should be interesting, Coach Buzz Williams has not had a low post player with Gardener's skills.

Hits and Misses...Last Season's "Rising Sophomores"
Last season's list produced a few (very few...) hits, and more than a few misses. Hollis Thompson increased his minutes, role in Georgetown's offense and his offensive rating in 2011. Not a breakout season, but very solid progress that suggests he will be an All-Conference player this season or next. Others who showed progress last season include Dante Taylor, the Pittsburgh #4/#5 who increased his minutes very slightly, but bumped his offensive rating, suggesting steady growth and continued developement, Mouphtaou Yarou, Villanova's #5 whose minutes and role (Poss% and Shot%) within the offense grew (even if his offensive rating drifted downward a bit) and Peyton Siva, Louisville's point guard who doubled his minutes, bumped his offensive rating while maintaining a "Significant Contributor" role in Louisville's offense. Mookie Jones disappeared to a deep part of Syracuse's bench, DNP for 21 games. Dominic Cheek struggled 2011, though his minutes increased, his offenive efficiency declined and his role remained constant from his freshman season ("Role Player"). Cincinnati's Jaquon Parker, like Jones, did not seem to get his game on track last season, and faded to the deep rotation by season's end. Rakeem Buckles became the last injury casualty in the 2011 season. The then-sophomore was injured several times, missing 17 of the Cardinal's last 22 games. West Virginia's wing Dalton Pepper transferred to Temple at the end of the 2011 season.

Guest Contributor Ray Floriani: A Quick Recap of Syracuse & Marquette

by Ray Floriani

LYNDHURST, NJ - A team that had to explain and justify their very presence is suddenly Newark-bound. The last time Marquette played at the Prudential Center, ‘the Rock’, they walked off the floor 13 point losers to Seton Hall just over two weeks ago. Coach Buzz Williams though, is elated to be back as Marquette earned a Sweet 16 appearance with a 66-62 thriller over Syracuse. The numbers:

		Off.
Team	Poss.	Off.
Marquette	65	102
Syracuse	64	97

* Through the tournament a number of games have seen teams take meticulous care of the ball. Not here. Marquette had a 22% TO rate while Syracuse was even worse at 28%. The last of the Orange turnovers was most detrimental. Dion Waiter, a freshman guard was in the midst of an 18 point (in 23 minutes) evening, when his misguided pass with 51 seconds resulted in a turnover. About half a minute later Darius Johnson-Odom hit the biggest three of his 17 points to send Marquette to New Jersey. Syracuse wasted a 61% eFG effort and 66% mark from two point range. Chalk it up to those 18 turnovers.

2010 Legends Classic -- Six Takaways

Thoughts on the drive home
After blogging the Legends Classic Friday and Saturday for Rush the Court, I crossed over the Atlantic City causeway, merged onto the Garden State Parkway North earlier today and let my mind wander as the South Jersey landscape unfolded...

1. Tim Floyd is complicated -- He landed on my radar during his stint at Iowa State, though he held two D1 head coaching jobs before taking up the first chair in Ames. His drawl shows more west Texas and even big sky than Louisiana, as does his dressing pattern (mostly to brown-tones and flannels). And completely out of step with an image I had of the guy who mixed it up with the OJ Mayo crowd. The Legends folks had a hard time staying on their post game press schedule after the first semi-final game Friday. UTEP had lost a six point half-time lead to Georgia Tech, dropping the decision by 10 points, and twice they advised the press that UTEP was still in a "post game debriefing". The players and coach who appeared for questions were very subdued and used phrases like "poor judgment" and "leadership" throughout their opening statement and Q&A session. Floyd spoke softly, thoughtfully and modestly, that southern/western accent layered over his sentences like sugar frosting on a Hostess Cupcake and emphasized in subtle ways by his choice of phrases and word sequences. Was he as overwhelmed by the circumstances as his players appeared to be? Is this what happened at Southern California -- Country boy thrown under the bus by the sharpies, too modest and selfeffacing to stand up to them? The starting five the next day told a very different story. The coach benched his best candidate for All-CUSA Team and replaced him with a junior who average 4.3 points per game, and at the same time benched his (star) freshman center in favor of a senior who weighed 70 pounds more and averaged 11.0 minutes per game. And it worked. After beating John Beilein's Michigan team by 10 points in the Third Place game, Coach Floyd and his two "benched" starters appeared (on time) for the post game presser, exhibiting very different body language and attitudes about their performances. Randy Culpepper managed to play 30 minutes -- "I'll do what it takes for this team to win. Whatever the coach feels is best. It's not who starts, it's who finishes..." -- and showed the kind of athletic play and shot making that are often associated with players whose time is spent at schools with bigger budgets and better media exposure. The senior guard still took 16 field goal attempts, but he converted three more of them the second day and upped his first day point production (13) by 11 more (24). If he plays as smart for the rest of the season, he will be on more than one All-Conference Team. The freshman scored four more points and grabbed one more rebound than his previous outing.

2. John Beilein is going to have a very long year -- though next season may be more fun. When I saw the probable starters for the second semi-final game Friday I assumed it was a typo. Michigan had three freshmen (two "true" and one "redshirt") starters for their game against Syracuse. The John Beilein I remember from West Virginia (and Richmond) rarely had three freshmen as active players on his squad, much less in his starting five, because he routinely red shirts his freshmen players, having them simply practice with the squad for a year before stepping onto the court to execute his playbook against real competition. There were of course, exceptions like the just graduated Da'Sean Butler from West Virginia, who saw significant playing time, and even a few starts, as a true freshman. But that was how everyone knew Butler would be a special college player. He had to be, Beilein started him as a freshman. Since Canisius Beilein-coached teams have followed on of two possible arcs of development, the Canisius Model in which the team reaches it's highest point of development in the coach's second year, and the Richmond Model in which the team generally improves with each passing season (there are exceptions, but not many). Right now Michigan apprears to be in the Canisius Model, having made the NCAAs in Beilein's second season, and taken a step-back last season (Beilein's third. Three freshmen starters is almost a concession that the season will go for play development and not for conference wins or post season consideration. Too bad, because these Wolverines are talented, but maybe not as wise as other, earlier Beilein-coached teams about breaking down opposing defenses.

3. Memphis may have the players, but UTEP's coach will make CUSA a race -- See #1 above. UTEP has a very competitive roster, and if that squad buys what this coach sells, they should give Memphis all they can handle in conference play. The Miners will have to play road games in Hattisburg (Southern Mississippi), Birmingham (UAB) and Houston (Houston), but the Miners will host Memphis.

4. Tech might find a higher ceiling after Lawal and Favors -- Hewitt passed on the St. John's job last April (to the surprise of many in the New York media) and decided to stay in Atlanta. The reasons may well be named Brian Oliver and Glen Rice Jr. With Favors, Lawal and a lousy break with the conference schedule, Tech could do no better than 7-9 in the ACC last season, but Oliver and Rice should replace the points and keep turnovers down. With a more favorable conference schedule (and a few breaks...), the Jackets may be able to up that to win enough conference games to return to the NCAAs in 2011. Tech beat a good UTEP team and pressured an NCAA-quality Syracuse squad through most of their second game. Brian Oliver shredded the Syracuse 2-3 zone with a 6-11 three point performance. For the weekend games, Oliver converted 18-38 (9-19, 9-19) and 2-2 for an eFG% of 59.2%. He had five turnovers total between the two games. Rice was not as consistent as Oliver, but with Udofia and Shumpert, neither of whom as to be prolific night-in and night-out, the Jackets may, for any given game, ger enough point production to win their share of games.

5. The race for Big East Freshman of the Year is wide open -- Preseason choice, Fab Melo started both games and logged 14 minutes. He scored 0 points on 0-1 and 0-2 shooting. He will be better by season's end, but he will not be "All" Team material for another season, possibly two. Dion Waiters might keep it in the Syracuse family this year, the freshman played for 31 minutes in the two games, shooting 6-12 (1-5, 5-7) and 2-3 to score 15 points. Of course Jeremy Lamb (UConn), Vander Blue (Marquette), JJ Moore (Pitt -- not sure Talib Zanna, a red shirt freshman qualifies...) and Dwayne Polee (St. John's) might have something to say before the season is over. In 2007 Paul Harris was the preseason favorite by a large margin, but the #2/#3 found himself on the bench for large stretches by the end of the season, and Scottie Reynolds of Villanova emerged from a crowded field to take the honor. Would not surprise me if the winner is someone not named earlier (though at this point I think it is between Blue and Waiters).

6. Thanksgiving tournaments are not well attended -- something Ray Floriani noted in a conversation this afternoon. I think Thanksgiving is a family holiday (heaviest travel days of the year), and that takes a toll on attendance. I asked one of the folks from the Michigan Daily why the Wolverines had no cheering squad (UTEP was the only school that seems to have sent a squad), and they replied that the squad went home for the holiday. The games drew between 5,000-6,000 each night, where seating capacity in the Hall is about 13,000-15,000. The crowd looked thin in the upper ring, but was very loud and partisan for the Syracuse game each night, as Orange fans far over-matched fans from their two opponents (Michigan and Georgia Tech). Though the Tech fans, out numbered, did compete on sound level.

The Gazelle Group organized the event and did a great job of making material and the teams available to the press.

2010-11 Preview -- Syracuse Orange

Too Busy for the Details?
The returning numbers look better than they did going intothe 2010 season...the Orange finished #1 in the conference (regular season) and pulled down a #1 seed in the NCAAs. How can they do better than that? They can't. A solid nucleus is back (but not the senior leadership from last season) and the Orange have the preseason conference ROY, but they will not equal the conference win total nor the finish of 2010. But they can come close.  Prognosis -- A 2nd quartile finish.

3 Years At a Glance
Funny how things work out. A far more talented team returned in 2009, but could not do what the Orange of 2010 achieved. Having Wes Johnson practice with the team for an entire year (NCAA transfer rule) certainly made his transition into Coach Boeheim's system a good deal smoother than a (however talented...) freshman or a JUCO. One of those facets I think is overlooked when considering the impact of a newcomer.

	Returning...
	2011	2010	2009
%Min	55.9	44.1	72.5
%Pts	41.7	44.1	49.5
%FGM	53.0	45.1	70.7
%3FGM	38.9	45.3	49.5
%OReb	57.3	47.1	82.9
%DReb	51.0	47.3	72.5
%TReb	53.0	47.2	75.9

Returning a higher percentage of the minutes, field goals made and rebounds (both ends of the court) than last season, but still comparatively low versus other Big East teams. Can the Orange replace scoring and perimeter shot making for the second season running? The 14% difference between returning minutes and returning points scored is a point of concern. Given the role of Wes Johnson and Andy Rautins in the offense, it is more likely that a committee (rather than 1-2 players) will have to step into that role in the offense. Returning players accounted for some very efficient scoring last season, the potential for a larger role in the offense is high, but newcomers will have to step into several critical areas of the offense and defense.

	According to Pomeroy...
	2009-10		2008-09		2007-08
	#	Rank	#	Rank	#	Rank
Off Eff Conf	110.9	4	109.9	4	103.7	9
Def Eff Conf	99.2	1	101.7	6	102.0	6
Eff Diff Conf	11.7	2	8.2	7	1.7	8
Off eFG Conf	53.7	2	54.5	2	50.4	7
Off TOv Conf	20.6	14	20.2	13	21.2	13
Off OReb Conf	38.3	3	35.6	5	36.7	3
Off FTA/FGA Conf	41.2	7	34.9	6	44.8	2

John Gasaway over at the Basketball Prospectus did a great job of using the stats to show why Syracuse had a great season and I would strongly recommend the reader spend the $10 (more or less) to download the 2010-11 (digital) edition and read the excellent analysis provided for all of the 345 Division I teams. The dramatic improvement of the defense (largely Coach Boeheim's trademark 2-3 zone) is clearly the driver that brought the Orange (back) into the conference elite. The guru formerly known as the Big Ten Wonk did a tremendous job breaking down the defensive numbers (Dean Oliver's four factors played a large role...), but he did leave a crumb or two for me to chew on offensively, and share with the reader. While not "the explanation" for why the Orange did so well, something to consider when Syracuse is working the other side of the ball. Shot efficiency improved from 2008 to 2009, the crucial element for the Orange's two rank jump. While Syracuse maintained their #4 rank from 2009 to 2010, the methods employed to maintain that rank varied. Note shot efficiency (eFG) rank stayed constant even though the actual number declined very slightly. The Orange saw an increase (also modest) in their turnover rate (TOv) and a rather dramatic rise in their ability to get to the free throw line (even though they dropped one rank there as well). The improvement in offensive rebounding (credit to Onuaku and Jackson here) offset the declines elsewhere, suggesting that for the Cuse, offensive rebounding was relatively important. Getting to the line to finish a possession, and nabbing the offensive miss to keep the possession alive more than offset the decline in shot conversion and the modes rise in turnovers. Maintaining a dominant defense will be critical to success in 2011. Offensively, can the Orange improve on their turnovers and shoot better than they did in 2010? A backslide in either will have to be offset by an improvement in offensive rebounding (or getting to the line even more...). Both of those stats however, may be, given the players, pretty close to their "ceiling" already.

	For the Record...
	2009-10			2008-09			2007-08
	W	L	Pct.	W	L	Pct.	W	L	Pct.
Overall	30	5	0.857	28	10	0.737	21	14	0.600
Big East	15	3	0.833	11	7	0.611	9	9	0.500
Post Season?	NCAA Rnd #3			NCAA Rnd #3			NIT Rnd #3

The Orange Nucleus
Coach Jim Boeheim had a tremendous squad to coach last season, one he obviously enjoyed working with. Syracuse will return starters and contributors in both the front and back courts; the question is whether a combination of the returnees and newcomers can duplicate the chemistry and replace the scoring (and rebounds) from last season.

On Offense
Player	Min%	Ortg	Poss%	Shot%	eFG%	OR%	PPWS	FTR%
Kris Joseph	69.6	111.1	19.6	18.4	50.8	7.7	1.14	59.8
Rick Jackson	65.7	108.6	19.6	19.0	59.1	12.7	1.16	34.1
Scoop Jardine	55.6	113.6	22.6	20.7	53.4	1.9	1.15	39.5
Brandon Triche	53.4	106.5	20.8	18.5	58.0	3.8	1.19	41.0
Mookie Jones	12.8	118.2	22.4	27.9	63.2	6.3	1.26	19.4
DaShonte Riley	11.2	90.0	11.6	6.6	60.0	6.4	1.14	73.3

Note the Poss% above -- having five efficient players (ORtgs >105) with Poss% in the range of (high-end) Role Player and (low-end) Significant Contributor (Ken Pomeroy's ratings) is a bit unusual. There is "growth" for all, though looking at Possession rates for Johnson (21.4), Rautins (19.0) and Onuaku (19.2), as Gasaway points out in his preview/analysis is a bit deceptive given that Johnson and Rautins saw far more court time than anyone else on the squad. That difference leaves a modest possessions vacuum that a committee (most likely) will have to cover. Many previewers tab forward Kris Joseph as the strongest breakout candidate, but note that junior guard Scoop Jardine and junior bfc Rick Jackson will most likely be called on early (given their seniority) to step up. Sophomore point guard Brandon Triche will most likely earn more time if he can cut down on his turnover rate, high enough to negate his good assist rate. Sophomore Mookie Jones showed (in albeit very limited minutes) the highest efficiency/usage numbers on the squad, but, like the possession-based stats of Rautins and Johnson, probably distorted by (in Jones' case) the comparatively small amount of playing time. He should see more minutes in 2011, but will face stiff competition from the other returning front court players (and the freshmen). Among the post Midnight Madness casualties, DaShonte Riley may red shirt this season, pending the results of foot surgery announced at Syracuse Media Day. The injury is not tracable to a specific incident, may go back to last season. Riley could expect to see his minutes expand with the departure of Arinze Onuaku, but should he decide to sit and rehabilitate this season, Jackson and two freshmen (see below) can expect to fill the gap.

On Defense
Player	Min%	DR%	Ast%	TO%	Stl%	Blk%
Kris Joseph	69.6	13.7	10.2	18.2	1.6	2.8
Rick Jackson	65.7	16.5	11.2	21.2	8.2	2.2
Scoop Jardine	55.6	7.2	32.5	21.4	0.3	3.0
Brandon Triche	53.4	5.3	21.7	25.7	0.3	2.3
Mookie Jones	12.8	10.0	13.0	16.8	2.4	3.8
DaShonte Riley	11.2	11.4	10.2	36.9	11.1	0.7

Everyone of the returning players listed has a double digit assist rate, unusual and a strong sign of the "share and share alike" philosophy in 2010. While the turnover rates were also a bit high (especially freshman point guard Brandon Triche and low post reliever DaShonta Riley), but given the strong efficiency ratings, those turnovers were not a significant drag on Syracuse's overall offensive efficiency (best in conference). Among the other rotation/bench players returning, sophomore front court player James Southerland, Nick Resavy (a Junior), Griffin Hoffmann a sophomore guard, Matt Lyde-Cajust -- a sophomore forward and junior guard Brandon Reese.

Significant Additions
The Orange faithful will see seven new faces at various times this season, six of which belong to freshmen and one to a Division II transfer. Both Fab Melo, a 7-0, 240 pound center "imported" from Brazil and 6-4, 215 pound Dion Waiters figure to make the earliest and most favorable impressions. Expect Melo to start alongside Rick Jackson, giving the Orange one of the tallest (and more block-forward) front courts in the conference. When Waiters is in the back court with either Triche or Jardine, expect him to take the off guard role in the offense. Noted as a scorer, Waiters will have to supply some of the three point firepower provided for (four of the past five years) by Rautins. The wing will see CJ Fair compete with Jones, and Joseph for minutes on the wing. The 6-7, 195 #3 tore an ACL in the summer of his (HS) junior year, and is still developing as a player. More an athlete and transition scorer than a set shooter or low post player, he will be valued for his ability to crash the glass and put back. Well regarded but nevertheless a work in progress, 6-11 210 pound Senegal native Baye Moussa Keita will most likely follow Arinze Onuaku's development path and show shot blocking and rebounding skills before he assumes a more assertive role in the offense. 5-10 point guard Nolan Hart out of Albany, NY and 6-4 back court player Russ DeRemer, son of a Syracuse rower, round out the true freshmen. Junior transfer Matt Tomaszewski, a 6-8 215 pound #3/#4 who logged two seasons at the University of Tampa before coming in and sitting for hte 2009-10 season. He will have two years of eligibility beginning this season and should provide even more front court depth.

Explode If...
1. Find a replacement for Andy Rautins and Arinze Onuaku. Though unacknowledged, the Cuse that played through the first three rounds of the NCAAs was not the team that swept through the Big East (and their out of conference schedule). The two senior leaders anchored the squad, set the tone and provided a lot of confidence to the other five players who made up the "regular" rotation. Onuaku's absence was obvious from the first round on. Both seniors took (at different times) red shirt seasons for injuries, and so were associated with the program for five, rahter than four seasons. They saw good and bad times and set, along with Johnson, an example for unselfish play. Statistically replacing Rautins' threes, Johnson's driving scores and Onuaku's rebounds will not be as difficult as replacing their leadership.
2. Kris Joseph and Rick Jackson have great seasons. Both have shown the abilty to score efficiently in (relatively) smaller offensive roles. They will have to "grow" those roles from (about) a 19% possession rate to about 24% while still able to score efficiently. Jackson, outstanding on the offensive glass is merely very good for defensive boards. He will have to, despite Fab Melo's presence contribute more on toward defensive rebounds as well.
3. Fab Melo and Dion Waiters (and CJ Fair) live up to preseason expectations.

Implode If...
1. Chemistry issues within the squad and individual agendas have historically given the Orange faithful squads whose whole was less than the sum of the individual parts. Last season was the diametric opposite and frankly a pleasure to watch (except when they were pansing the Wildcats in front of a national audience...). Hopefully the returning players learned the lesson and will continue the example this season.
2. Injuries. Though this is a deeper squad (and should run a deeper rotation than 2010), losing key players or a combination of several players from among Joseph, Jardine (who was lost for a season already), Jackson and Triche could spell big problems. Riley is already sidelined for at least some part of (if not the whole) season.

Crucial Run/Bellweather Games
Syracuse's first road trip will be a run down to Atlantic City, NJ for Thanksgiving Weekend at the Legends Classic. The three other teams in the field, Michigan (Syracuse's first opponent), and UTEP or Georgia Tech in the second game, will provide national exposure and experience on a neutral court, but not much by way of competition. The challenge of the out of conference (OOC) will come December 7 in Madison Square (the Jimmy V Classic) against Michigan State. This should be a great game as the Sparten back court should match up well against the Cuse rotation. Something of a baptism of fire for Dion Waiters and Triche/Jardine. 13-0 (hardly pie-in-the-sky) would put the Orange squarely on the national radar going into Big East play. Anything short of 11-2 would suggest a tougher go through the conference than many previews foresee.

Mirrors dealt to the Cuse this time around include traditional rival Georgetown, Villanova (third time in four seasons) and traditional whipping boy, Seton Hall. Play with the Hoyas and Pirates should be very interesting, because preseason projections have clustered those three, and for those who put the Orange in the first quartile, Villanova (and Georgetown?) would be head-to-head quartile rivals. Against Seton Hall, Syracuse will have to continue to dominate to maintain the upper hand in any head-to-head comparisons. Ditto for Georgetown and Villanova. Going 6-0 would be quite a season, but a very remote possibility. 4-2 would be a positive result, though 3-3 might be more realistic. Opening the Big East regular season with a two game homestand (hosting Providence and Notre Dame) should put the Orange up 2-0. The last seven games in January should be telling for Syracuse's prospects. The Orange take to the road for two games, Seton Hall and St. John's...in Queens (Coach Lavin's no fool), return home to host Cincinnati, run down to Pittsburgh for a date with the Panthers (very important, their only meeting with Pitt), back to the Carrier Dome for another two game homestand (Villanova and closeout with mirror Seton Hall) and finally back on the road for three games, the first with Marquette. Going 4-3 or better is mandatory if the Orange harbor visions of finishing in the first quartile (five or fewer losses are typical for double bye teams), because the backend of their schedule will have them play the Hoyas twice, host West Virginia and face Louisville and Villanova on the road. That run in Frebruary will most likely yield a minimum of two losses, and quite possibly one or two additional.