Guest Contributor Ray Floriani: At the NIT -- The Last Waltz?

by Ray Floriani

NEW YORK CITY - It was championship number three. Dayton defeated North Carolina 79-68 to win the 73rd NIT at Madison Square Garden. The Flyers previously won in 1962 and ‘68.

Madison Square Garden, NYC
The skies may have been Carolina Blue...
...but the sun shined on Dayton

The factors and numbers from a 70 (UNC 72 Dayton 68) possession game:

			FTM
	ORtg	eFG%	FGA	OR%	TO%
North Carolina	94	49	13	27	21
Dayton	116	58	17	32	16

Dayton had an outstanding offensive showing but the staples of defense and poise were crucial for the Atlantic Ten representatives. The Tar Heels were solid from the perimeter shooting 8 of 20 (40%) from beyond the arc. Junior forward Will graves did appreciable damage with a game high 25 points punctuated with a 7 of 13 performance from downtown. In the stretch when Dayton finally achieved game winning separation, the percentages from the perimeter caught up with UNC, a 26% three point shooting team in four prior NIT contests. Flyers did a significant job inside the arc limiting the Tar Heels to a 44% (18 of 41) night on two point field goals.

Turnovers, those forced by Dayton, was a significant factor. Brian Gregory’s club forced 10 first half TOs (a 26% rate) en route to a 45-32 halftime lead. Carolina cared for the ball better the final twenty minutes (only 5 turnovers) which helped get them back in it. A 7-0 opening run the first two minutes after intermission was very significant as well.

In the end that Dayton offensive efficiency was supported by a creditable 35% from three and of greater note, 62% (18 of 29) from two point range as the Flyers attacked the basket with a vengeance.

At the half UNC enjoyed a 38%-21% edge in offensive rebounding percentage. Dayton hit the boards harder the second half limiting the Tar Heels to two offensive boards the final 20 minutes and securing the edge on the offensive glass.

The double figure scorers and efficiency. The Martin Manley and NBA efficiency model adds points, rebounds, made shots, blocked shots, steals, and assists while subtracting turnovers and missed shots.

		Efficiency
Dayton	Pts.	Rtg	Min.
Marcus Johnson	20	16	0.533
Chris Johnson	14	18	1.06
Chris Wright	14	21	0.750
Paul Williams	16	17	0.654

		Efficiency
North Carolina	Pts.	Rtg	Min.
Will Graves	25	17	0.567
Deon Thompson	13	18	0.581
Larry Drew II	12	11	0.333
Tyler Zeller	11	5	0.217

Dayton numbers were solid across the board. Chris Johnson’s efficiency per minute metric was on a ’superstar’ level. Johnson added 9 boards in a 17 minute outing that was limited due to a hip injury suffered in the game. Drew II of UNC had 8 assists but his 6 turnovers were detrimental. Tyler Zeller, the tar Heels 7-foot soph who came on strong in the NIT, scored in doubles but his efficiency was hurt by a shutout in the rebounding department in a 23 minute evening.

Not in the box score. Deon Thompson set an NCAA record in the final. It was the UNC senior’s 152nd career game breaking the record shared by Kentucky’s Wayne turner (1996-99) and Walter Hodge of Florida (2006-09).

Not in the Box Score Part Two. Dayton led 17-8 in second chance points. A key stat considering rebounding was a Flyer concern entering the final.

The last...waltz? With talk of NCAA expansion to 96 teams the idea the NIT might have seen its last tournament was a topic of discussion. Both coaches felt the NIT being phased out would be unfortunate. As Brian Gregory said, “Dayton built its national brand name (years ago) here in the NIT at Madison Square Garden.”

Dayton is tempo free. Dayton assistant Jon Borovich said the Flyers study tempo free statistics closely. “Coach (Brian) Gregory will bring them up in staff meetings citing turnover rates and points per possession,” Borovich said before Tuesday’s semifinal. “We chart possessions on the bench as a staff and points per possession and other (tempo free) stats we pay close attention to.”

All Tournament...
Delroy James	Rhode Island
Will Graves	North Carolina
Deon Thompson	North Carolina
Marcus Johnson	Dayton
Most Outstanding Player - Chris Johnson Dayton

“You can’t measure heart and this team had the biggest heart of any team I coached” - Dayton coach Brian Gregory

“We just didn’t finish the job….I thought Brian’s (Gregory) team was so active, you just have to congratulate them.” - UNC coach Roy Williams

Dayton players greet their fans

The Fans. “It was like a home game,” Gregory said,” our fans are absolutely great and we put them through a lot this year.” Dayton players truly appreciated their outstanding and passionately devoted followers. Part of the celebration saw the players recognize the band and cheerleaders for their great support. They then went into the stands at the Garden to personally say thanks to their fans. The exclamation point on a wonderful night for Dayton and its faithful.

Flyer squad poses with
the Dayton Cheering Squad

Guest Contributor Ray Floriani: At the Coaches vs Cancer

by Ray Floriani

NEW YORK CITY – The first one was a rout. The nightcap looked like one was in the works. In the end North Carolina was left to sweat out a 77-73 decision over Ohio State in the Coaches vs.Cancer semis at Madison Square Garden.

The scores and TEMPO FREE Breakdown:

			Offens
	Score	Poss.	Effncy
Syracuse	95	80	119
California	73	81	90
North Carolina	77	76	101
Ohio State	73	75	97

Syracuse entered the game averaging 84 possessions a game. The Orange imposed their will pace wise and defensively. Cal could not solve the patented 2-3 zone of Syracuse. Often the possession, after several passes, would end in a three pointer. Cal (44 per cent eFG) shot 6 of 20 from three point land. Cal was without (injured) three point threat Ryan Roberson, an 18 ppg scorer, but coach Mike Montgomery refused to let that be an excuse.

‘STUDY’ THOSE TOs:
Both teams had solid turnover rates, Syracuse at 15% and Cal at 19%. Actually Montgomery was very concerned over the 15 turnovers his team committed because they led to 19 Syracuse points. A closer look shows Syracuse had 10 steals so at least two thirds of the Cal turnovers were very damaging types leading to Syracuse transition opportunities.

Scoop Jardine led the Orange with 22 while Cal’s Jerome Randle, getting a good look by NBA scouts, paced all with 25 points.

The night cap was a tale of two halves. At the break it was 38-24 North Carolina and the Buckeyes (31 % eFG) had to be thankful it was that ‘close’. The second half saw the Big ten reps find the range, especially beyond the arc . The Buckeyes shot an eFG pct of 65% and made it too close for Roy Wiliams & Co.

Certainly, there were breakdowns on the Carolina side. but Ohio state found a late game rhythm and hit a succession of treys in the final two minutes to turn a 3-4 possession contest into a one possession affair. The late jim Valvano used to discuss how shooters facing a double digit deficit often loosten up , relax and start to hit shots. When the game is close they tend to tighten up. Carolina was consistent efficiency wise for their two halves. The Tar Heels posted a 103 mark the first half en route to a 101 finish. Ohio State was dramatically different.

	Efficiencies
	1st Half	2nd Half	Game
Ohio State	67	126	97

North Carolina, led by Deon Thompson’s 17 points, had 4 players in double figures. OSU’s Evan Turner (I almost typed Evan Turnover) had an interesting line. Turner led all scorers with 23 points, pulled down 11 boards but had 10 turnovers.

OSU meets Cal in the consolation with an interesting ACC-Big East battle, North Carolina and Syracuse set for the championship.

WUG 2009 -- USA Downs Greece by 31; Serbia Next

It Was Close...for About 25 Minutes
The USA and Greece were locked in a 5 point shootout (44-39) going into the locker room at half time. Team USA came out in the 2nd half and exploded. Literally. The Greeks matched their 1st half production, notching 38 points in the 2nd half. Team USA dropped 64 2nd half points on the hapless Greeks to pull away. The 3rd quarter was decisive, as the USA doubled the Greek offensive production 31-15 to blow their 5 point margin out to 21. The discouraged Greeks lost the 4th quarter by another 10 points, leaving the final margin at 31.

Five players (Deon Thompson, Lazar Hayward, Quincy Pondexter, James Anderson and Da'Sean Butler) scored in double figures as all 12 squad members put points on the board. Thompson scored a team high 17 points with Big East player (Marquette's) Lazar Hayward and Quincy Pondexter of Washington contributed 13 points each on (collectively) 6-11 (4-6, 2-5) shooting from the field to go with Pondexter's 9-12 from the line. The USA dominated the Greeks on the boards, pulling down 40% of their own misses and virtually denying the Greeks 2nd chance opportunities by grabbing nearly 85% of the Greek's misses. The game was relatively turnover free, as both squads kept turnover rates under 13%, but that should not imply a "no touch" game. Collectively the teams were whistled for 46 fouls, nearly equally sharing the guilt (22-24 in favor of the Greeks), but the Greeks converted FTAs at a sizzling 81.5% rate, while the USA left points on the table, converting only 70.4% of theirs (improving, but still well behind their European counterparts). The four factors breakdown:

On...	Eff	eFG	PPWS	OReb	DReb	TReb	TOR%	AST%	BLK%	STL%
Offense	135.6	63.6	1.31	40.7	84.2	125.0	11.3	54.8	3.2	1.3
Defense	96.7	43.7	1.02	15.8	59.3	75.0	12.6	30.8	0.0	7.5
Pace	79.7

This effort exceeded the USA's game with Finland for offensive efficiency, while matching the South Korean game's rather impressive PPWS of 1.31 (suggesting the USA squad converted FGAs efficiently, but also hit their FTAs). The assist rate (54.8) bested their previous high of 47% versus the South Koreans, indicating the players are beginning to rotate the ball through the post players more consistently than in earlier games. Quotes from squad members (see Butler's response to questions about team chemistry). Individual player efficiency stats...

Player	%PT	eFG	PPWS	Shot%	Ast%	OReb	DReb
Anderson, James	30.0	62.5	1.25	38.1	0.0	10.1	8.8
Battle, Talor	47.5	40.0	0.79	15.0	20.1	0.0	5.5
Booker, Trevor	22.5	66.7	1.28	19.0	0.0	0.0	11.7
Brackins, Craig	40.0	62.5	1.43	14.3	6.0	15.2	32.9
Butler, Da'Sean	50.0	83.3	1.67	17.1	19.0	18.2	21.1
Fisher, Corey	52.5	58.3	1.15	16.3	13.6	5.8	10.0
Hayward, Lazar	42.5	61.1	1.31	30.3	0.0	21.4	18.6
Hummel, Robbie	52.5	50.0	1.00	21.8	18.1	0.0	30.1
Pondexter, Quincy	47.5	40.0	1.25	15.0	10.0	0.0	5.5
Thompson, Deon	55.0	80.0	1.63	26.0	0.0	0.0	19.1
Turner, Evan	30.0	66.7	1.45	14.3	39.7	10.1	26.3
Varnado, Jarvis	30.0	100.0	2.00	14.3	0.0	0.0	8.8

The starters are highlighted in green. Coach Ryan returned to his three most consistent starters, Da'Sean Butler (West Virginia), Corey Fisher (Villanova) and Deon Thompson (North Carolina). Lazar Hayward, the last of the Big East trio and Purdue's Robbie Hummel rounded out the starting five, though from each player's %PT, it is clear the staff distributed the time fairly evenly through the squad. The starters received 51% of the PT. Hayward, Butler and Craig Brackins (Iowa State) all registered impressive rebounding rates on the offensive boards.

The Greeks attempted only 1 in 4 FGAs from beyond the arc, a stunning change of strategy from their three previous games, punched the ball inside to 6-9 center Savas Tzougkarakis who converted more efficiently than any Greek not named Verginis, going 6-12 from the field (all 2FGAs) and 9-11 at the line to provide secondary support for Verginis with 21 points. Point guard Dimitrios Verginis hit a sizzling 9-17 (0-1 from 3s) and 7-8 from the line to carry Greece with a game high 25 points. The rest of the Greek squad shot an appalling 30.6% from the field (8-21, 3-15). Their saving grace was the free throw line, where the Greek squad (minus Verginis and Tzougkarakis) 5 of 6 FTAs for 85% conversion rate. The Greek's 2nd and 3rd scoring threats in this tournament, guard Dimitrios Kompodietas and forward Sotirios Manolopoulos, were simply not a factor in this game, going a collective 2-9 (2-5, 0-4) from the field and 2-2 from the line.

What's Next?
In an odd seeding quirk, the USA squad will play Serbia in the second game of Preliminary Round #2. The game is set for 7/7 at 8:00pm Belgrade time (2:00pm EDT). Serbia defeated Finland 82-70 today (Monday 7/6), so there is no chance of a three-way tie in Group I. The USA and Serbia are competing for seed in the quarter final round, as they both will advance, irrespective of the outcome of their second tilt. Tomorrow's winner will get the 2nd place finisher from Group L, the loser of the Bulgaria-Turkey game, the loser will draw the Group L winner (the winner of Bulgaria-Turkey). From the quotes page, West Virginia's Da'Sean Butler (Newark, NJ) on round #2 with Serbia...
Q:  Are you looking forward to playing Serbia again?
A:  Definitely. I feel like they got us the first time. They have been playing together for a while, and we are starting to get the hang of playing with each other and knowing what people's weaknesses and strengths are. I think it will be a better match up than last time.

Let's hope the boys are rested and ready.

Additional Links
The AP wire story posted at USA Basketball.
The box score in .pdf format.
Some additional post game quotes.

WUG 2009 -- USA Over Finland

Blow Out
The USA dominated the scoring, defense and boards on both ends of the floor, as they doubled the point production of the Fins, 87-40. This performance should not be confused with a cure to the problem areas exposed by the Serbs and Canadians. The USA squad is simply better than anything the Fins can put on the court. Their next Group H opponent, South Korea, will most likely produce a similar result. Oliver's Four Factors (table below) confirms the USA excelled in every facet of the game...

On...	Eff	eFG	PPWS	OReb	DReb	TReb	TOR%	AST%	BLK%	STL%
Offense	123.0	57.9	1.19	44.4	73.1	117.5	17.0	46.9	10.9	12.7
Defense	56.6	26.6	0.55	26.9	55.6	82.5	19.8	53.3	3.1	8.5
Pace	70.7

Even as the team turned in a defensive performance similar to (but much better than) the one versus the Russian squad they blew up offensively, posting the most efficient point production (123.0, or 123 points per 100 possessions) of their four efforts to date -- the next closest was 99.9 in their losing effort versus the Serbs. The pace (70.7 -- about 71 possessions per team for the game) was the lowest possession game yet. While it may be the most deliberate game yet played by the USA squad, it is still higher than most D1 games. Only James Anderson (Ok State) and Deon Thompson, who hails from North Carolina, might feel comfortable playing at 70+ possessions per game, virtually all of the players (and Coach Bo Ryan) are used to a more deliberate offense.

The player breakdown shows marked improvement by virtually every member of the squad.

Player	%PT	eFG	PPWS	Shot%	Ast%	OReb	DReb
Anderson, James	22.5	83.3	1.61	21.2	27.8	17.8	8.5
Battle, Talor	40.0	137.5	2.24	15.9	15.6	0.0	14.4
Booker, Trevor	40.0	50.0	1.22	15.9	7.8	15.0	4.8
Brackins, Craig	47.5	78.6	1.52	23.4	6.6	12.6	24.3
Butler, Da'Sean	35.0	100.0	2.00	13.6	0.0	0.0	22.0
Fisher, Corey	57.5	62.5	1.22	22.1	5.4	7.0	6.7
Hayward, Lazar	47.5	16.7	0.43	20.1	13.2	4.2	28.3
Hummel, Robbie	45.0	62.5	1.25	28.2	13.9	0.0	12.8
Pondexter, Quincy	45.0	28.6	0.76	24.7	6.9	8.9	8.5
Thompson, Deon	50.0	42.9	0.91	22.2	6.3	8.0	19.2
Turner, Evan	52.5	25.0	0.50	12.1	11.9	3.8	14.7
Varnado, Jarvis	17.5	50.0	1.38	18.1	0.0	0.0	0.0

The starters are again highlighted in green. The staff stayed with the basic three (Butler, Fisher and Thompson) they have started in the three previous games. To the trio, Evan Turner got his second consecutive start (the staff rewarded his rebounding in the Russian game?) and again turned in a strong rebounding performance (1-4-5). Trevor Booker, a front court starter in the Serb-USA exhibition game also drew his second start. Especially efficient offensive efforts from Talor Battle (Penn State), Craig Brackins (Iowa State), Da'Sean Butler (West Virginia), Corey Fisher (Villanova) and Deon Thompson (North Carolina). Butler and Fisher are developing some much needed offensive consistency, converting well from the court and at the line. Fisher turned in a good performance, though his rebounds (he picked up both offensive and defensive rebounds) and assists were tempered with 3 turnovers.

Additional Links
AP wire story posted on USA Basketball.
The official box score (pdf format).
Additional post game quotes from the coaches and selected players (Corey Fisher's quotes included).