2010-11 Preview -- Villanova Wildcats

Too Busy for the Details?
The 2010 season started off with a bang. Taking the Puerto Rico Tip-Off even after abruptly sending freshman Mouphtaou Yarou home for an eight week treatment, losing a single out of conference game to eventual A-10 champion (and Big 5 rival) Temple suggested great things were in store when the conference schedule was underway. The 'Cats ran out to a 20-1 (9-0 conference) record and a #2 ranking in the polls before the wheels fell off the wagon. A 4-6 finish and second round exit has not dampened the Nova Nation's enthusiasm for 2011. Will 2011 be the bounce back season, or another not-quite-there effort? The squad seems to be on the same page, and ready to prove 2010 was a fluke and not a trend.  Prognosis -- A 1st quartile finish.

3 Years At a Glance

	Returning...
	2011	2010	2009
%Min	66.0	63.1	90.6
%Pts	51.6	79.6	89.5
%FGM	63.5	57.1	89.6
%3FGM	50.8	81.4	86.0
%OReb	72.7	38.4	86.1
%DReb	65.9	50.7	90.9
%TReb	68.1	46.7	89.3

Though not quite the rebuilding job Coach Wright faced last fall, when the Coach had to replace all but one member of the front court rotation, the Wildcats will have to replace quite a few points (note the 14% difference between returning minutes and returning points). Don't let the (relatively) high rebounding percentages fool you, this season's squad will have to better last season's squad to control the boards as the class of 2009 had.

	According to Pomeroy...
	2009-10		2008-09		2007-08
	#	Rank	#	Rank	#	Rank
BE Off Eff	112.3	3	110.0	3	100.3	12
BE Def Eff	103.9	8	101.0	4	100.2	5
BE Off eFG%	53.5	3	51.9	6	46.7	13
BE OReb%	37.0	T5	35.4	7	34.6	5
BE Off FTRate	34.5	2	44.9	1	37.4	8
BE Def eFG%	47.7	3	49.5	10	49.9	9
BE Def TOv%	20.3	4	21.8	2	22.8	2
BE DReb%	33.5	6	32.8	7	32.8	8
BE Def FTRate	53.0	16	39.7	13	51.4	16

The defensive numbers are more interesting going into this season because despite mediocre shot defense (see BE Def Eff and BE Def eFG% above, focus on conference rankings for a moment) the Wildcats nevertheless were a "first quartile" (or near first quartile) defensive unit. Until 2010. The strong improvement in shot defense was overlooked as Villanova's defensive efficiency dropped down to "mid conference" level. Strange right? The theories abounded in the 2011 previews. John Gasaway decried (follow on to his blog post during last season) the high foul rate, a subject he returned to in his preview in the 2011 College Basketball Prospectus (available now -- click on the link -- and a very good read), while Dan Hanner looks to defensive rebounding (in his conference preview) to explain the decline. Dan and the Wonk are certainly have good points to make, but defensive rebounding (by rank) actually improved last season and fouling on the defensive side of the ball has been a marker for Villanova defense (as many Rivals board posters have noted) for a number of years now. Compare the foul rate from 2008 to that of 2010...about the same. The Wildcats have to cut down on the fouling, but if we consider the foul rate difference (Off FTRate - Def FTRate), the fouling problem of 2010 becomes a bit clearer...

	2010	2009	2008
Off FTRate	34.5	44.9	37.4
Def FTRate	53.0	39.7	51.4
FTRate Diff	-18.8	5.2	-14.0

The FTRate difference was (only?) slightly worse than that of 2008, but the 2008 squad, even with poorer shot defense and defensive rebounding, had a (slightly) stronger defensive ranking than the 2010 squad. The difference? Turnover rates and that difference (an admittedly hastily assembled metric that only crudely measures the advantage given opponents). Turnover rates have declined across D1 last season, even as shot defense improved.

One of the less explored topics in the Big East is the increase in offensive rebounding. Not only does it offset bad shooting (compare Villanova's offensive offensive efficiency, eFG% and OReb% for 2008 above), but it can provide a bump for offensive efficiency because it "prolongs" the team's possession. Georgetown lived on good shooting but great offensive rebounding during Roy Hibbert's playing days.

The bounce-back pattern noted from 2008 to 2009 is promising as it could occur again in 2011.

	For the Record...
	2009-10			2008-09			2007-08
	W	L	Pct.	W	L	Pct.	W	L	Pct.
Overall	25	8	0.758	30	8	0.789	22	13	0.629
Big East	13	5	0.722	13	5	0.722	9	9	0.500
Post Season?	NCAA Rnd #2			NCAA Rnd #5			NCAA Rnd #3

The Wildcats' Nucleus
Coach Jay Wright will have a squad balanced in experience between his front court and back court, as the first fall practices give way to the regular season. There are a lot of points to replace, but at least three of the returning players, Cheek, Pena and Yarou are poised to "grow" into a "Significant Contributor" role with the squad. Wayns and Fisher are poised to grow into "Go-to Guy" (dominant) roles on offense. Providing the staff with many possibilities for where those points (and more) will come from. If the 2010 squad did not deliver rebounding in quite the volume as 2009, at least there are more returning players who should be better with experience.

On Offense
Player	Min%	Ortg	Poss%	Shot%	eFG%	OR%	PPWS	FTR%
Corey Fisher	67.1	116.2	24.2	22.8	51.0	3.1	1.15	58.0
Corey Stokes	62.5	117.7	15.8	19.4	54.0	5.5	1.15	23.1
Antonio Pena	61.9	112.3	20.3	18.1	57.7	10.4	1.22	61.4
Maalik Wayns	37.2	102.8	23.3	24.0	48.3	2.3	1.09	40.0
Dominic Cheek	33.5	109.9	18.2	19.5	50.4	10.0	1.07	40.6
Isaiah Armwood	24.1	102.6	11.8	11.2	48.1	8.2	1.02	47.2
Mouphtaou Yarou	23.7	109.3	16.3	12.9	58.3	12.7	1.23	56.7
Maurice Sutton	20.1	83.1	13.9	10.4	41.5	12.0	0.89	53.7

Reviewing the numbers for Corey Fisher, Corey Stokes and Antonio Pena, it appears that Fisher may have little room for (usage) "growth" without a serious decline in his efficiency (ORtg). The Poss% ceiling for Pena may be somewhere around 25% (think a Cunningham-like role in the offense), while Stokes could grow into a consistent third option (Poss% around 20%) is possible, but little beyond that level. . The Basketball Prospectus acknowledged when assessing returning squad members, it undervalued those players who contributed were only modest minutes (Min% < 40%) to the game. Of the sophomore class, no question that Maalik Wayns, tabbed by Luke Winn as break out candidate, will definitely "grow" in the offense. Others have identified Dom Cheek as another breakout, but considering a 95% confidence interval, will probably grow to a "Major Contributor"-level role. He could be a strong second option on offense, especially if, when combined with Stokes, he hits from the outside. As an inside threat, projecting Mouphtaou Yarou as a budding star is probably a year off. The key for Mouph will be how much growth the fans see this season. If Mouph can get his Poss% rate up to about 20%+, he will be in good shape for 2012. Right now his upside is rebounding and shot blocking. Inside scoring will come Pena and guard penetration. A best scenario for Isaiah Armwood and Maurice Sutton would be usage growth to about 16-18% this season, which would position them nicely for another jump in 2012. If the 'Cats are going to gain dominance on the boards again this season, Armwood and Sutton (and Yarou and Pena) will have to step up.

On Defense
Player	Min%	DR%	Ast%	TO%	Stl%	Blk%
Corey Fisher	67.1	8.7	27.5	17.3	0.8	2.6
Corey Stokes	62.5	11.8	6.1	14.6	2.0	1.4
Antonio Pena	61.9	21.0	7.5	20.4	2.3	2.2
Maalik Wayns	37.2	8.7	16.2	21.4	0.2	2.3
Dominic Cheek	33.5	10.9	5.8	14.9	2.1	1.6
Isaiah Armwood	24.1	13.4	3.1	18.9	4.0	2.2
Mouphtaou Yarou	23.7	14.7	6.7	25.6	7.8	0.9
Maurice Sutton	20.1	12.8	1.8	31.0	10.9	0.8

Significant Additions
The significance of the newcomers may be understood in time, but neither James Bell, a 6-5, 225 pound guard/forward born in Plainfield, NJ and raised in Orlando, Florida, and 6-7, 235 pound 'tweener Jayvaughn Pinkston, an alum of Curtis Sumpter's high school, Bishop Laughlin, in New York City, is considered a Top 10 recruit. Bell verballed in the summer of 2008, before he hit the recruiting radar. Fast and athletic, especially dangerous in transition, Bell is projected as a #3. A series of stress fractures in both legs have sidelined the freshman. Medical red shirt this season is a distinct possibility. Pinkston, New York State's McDonald's All-American used his strength to dominate in the low post for Bishop Loughlin. Pinkston should be able to contribute with rebounding and defensive duties early, but will most likely need to develop consistency in his shooting range, to contribute carve a playing role larger than spot minutes.

Explode If...
1. Fisher can dominate and be efficient. But Corey alone cannot push the 'Cats to the highest spot in the conference. Pena and Stokes will have to become even more efficient (and assertive in the offense). But one of the sophomores will have to have a breakout as well.
2. Get the defensive fouls under control. Gasaway's analysis has value. If his assertion that fouls cost the Wildcats points and ultimately games is a bit obvious, the underlying notion, that (late game possession fouls aside) excessive fouling benched needed players and allowed teams that should have had difficulty staying with the 'Cats to stick around.
3. Reestablish defensive dominance. Maintain shot defense while forcing turnovers (and getting rebounding under control). Had Villanova had the 2009 defense with the 2010 offense, they would have logged their second Final Four last April.

Implode If...
1. Team chemistry gets out of hand. There has been a good deal of speculation about how well last season's squad got along. The common wisdom suggests that everyone does not have to be bffs, but the key to great teams is that the players enjoy their time together and care about each other. Locker room drama is a rankings killer.
2. Improvement requires concentration and focus. Off court distractions are a momentum killer. The latest incident will not sabotage the season, but when considered as the latest in a string of embarrassing moments over the past two-plus seassons, a pattern of distracting incidents that can wear out a squad.

Crucial Run/Bellweather Games
The out of conference (OOC) schedule features (guaranteed) tilts with Top 25 (and Big 5 rival) Temple and Maryland, projected to finish in the middle of the ACC. The Big 5 series produces at least one scare per season for the Wildcats as a reminder that the national ratings can matter little in a local rivalry. The NIT Tip-Off (should Villanova survive pod play) offers at least one RPI booster in the field (Tennessee, UCLA) that gets to New York City.

The Wildcats drew Rutgers, Pittsburgh and Syracuse as mirrors. According to most projections, that means the 'Cats get two First Quartile opponents (and some relief from Rutgers). A 4-2 (or better) from that trio would be encouraging. 3-3 or worse would suggest the 'Cats will struggle this season, and projections from the Basketball Prospectus (12-4 and a fourth place finish) would be more accurate. The 2010 Big East schedule was back-loaded with most of the more challenging opponents lined up for the last three-plus weeks of the season. This season will be similar, as January's most challenging sequence will come near the end of the month with a six game run that starts after the Maryland game (1/15) and sees the Wildcats take three games in a row on the road (Connecticut on 1/17, Syracuse on 1/22 and Providence on 1/26) followed by a three game "Murder's Row" homestand that brings in Georgetown on 1/29, Marquette on 2/2 and West Virginia on 2/5. Villanova should be 4-0 (no worse than 3-1) going into those six games, and should emerge no worse than 9-1/8-2 to have a good chance to finish in the top 2/3 in conference. The last half (minus one) portion of the confernce schedule matches the 'Cats with Pittsburgh (home on 2/12 and on the road 3/5), Seton Hall (road 2/15), Syracuse (home 2/21), St. John's (home 2/26) and Notre Dame (road 2/28). The two game, season-ending road trip (Notre Dame and Pittsburgh) could be especially brutal should the Wildcats be riding a 4-4 record going in. Best case through the last eight games should be a 6-2/7-1 record.

Roster Moves -- Eve of Fall Practice, 2010

Schools is Back, How About the Players?
Classes are back in session and supervised workouts (small groups only) have been running for nearly a month. There are a number of new injuries and transcript issues to note as the teams prepare for Midnight Madness...

Cincinnati -- Rashad Bishop was officially re-instated on the squad and his scholarship was restored according to Cincinnati.com blogger and sportswriter Bill Koch. The senior forward played with the squad during their Labor Day Weekend Tour of Canada.

DePaul -- The Blue Demon roster lists power forward Cleveland Melvin, Coach Purnell's first signee last May. [edit] Cleveland did not spend the summer in Chicago and get a jump on classes as a number of incoming freshmen tend to do, and could not be added to the roster until he registered for courses, thus explaining his earlier absence from the public roster. Still missing is Ryan Siggins, a 6-1 walk-on guard who scored 39 points in 140 minutes of play last season. Siggins, who appeared in 10 games, had his best outing in a 31 minute run at Villanova. Siggins was one of four walk-ons added to the squad last October. Two other walk-ons, Jimmy Drew and Joe Belcaster, are listed, while the third walk-on, Nate Rogers, transferred after last season.

Louisville -- Coach Rick Pitino lost another incoming player when 6-0 guard Russ Smith broke a bone in his right foot which will sideline him for an estimated six-to-eight weeks. That puts a return out to early-mid December at the earliest. The coach also announced at the Annual Louisville Tipoff Luncheon that freshman Gorgui Dieng from Senegal was ruled ineligible after being told (by the Dieng's prep school principal) that "...the NCAA approved his courses". Louisville, who according to the report will appeal the decision, though the Clearinghouse has not indicated whether Dieng's Senegal or his Huntington, WVA coursework was in question. Coach Pitino also announced that junior forward Jared Swopshire will not be available until the opening game versus Butler, due to a "sports hernia-type injury", reducing the squad to 11 healthy (qualified) bodies. Associate Coach Ralph Willard also stepped aside to be Director of Basketball Operations, allowing Mark Lieberman, hired in June, to move into a full-time Assistant Coach position.

Seton Hall -- In what might be considered the Final Act in the Bobby Gonzalez drama, Athletic Director Joe Quinlan announced he would resign October 8, his replacement would be chosen after a nationwide search. Quinlan, who held the job for five years, was an early opponent of the Gonzalez hire, and after a power struggle, was superseded by Law School Dean Patrick Hobbs during the summer of 2009, but survived the basketball coach who was fired in March of 2010.

Villanova -- With a redshirt becoming the most likely outcome for freshman James Bell, Villanova welcomed graduate student and former walk-on Russell Wooten back for one last season. Economics being the mother of circumstance, Wooten graduated last May, found no work in his native Southern California, and decided to tuck himself into a graduate school and earn an advanced degree while the economy works itself out. The Villanova School of Business was happy to take Wooten, and the post graduate will use his last year of eligibility with the Wildcats.

Assessing the Impact
Bishop's return is good news for the point-starved Bearcats. If the senior was a bit mercurial, hopefully the suspension and the regemine he had to follow to be re-instated will give him pause to think going forward.

Coach Purnell needs players, Melvin's presence can only help.

The news for Louisville is just all bad right now. This is shaping up to be the thinnest squad since the Cardinals' 2006 team. And given the resurrection of the Kentucky program, the timing for a dip in the program could not come at a worse time. Swopshire's injury was described as something similar to the one suffered by Tarquan Dean. That injury severely reduced Dean's effectiveness, even after the guard returned to active play. With 11 members, the staff may have (barely) enough bodies for squad-wide scrimmages, but they will have to be careful to keep everyone healthy. Dieng's appeal may be approved (not entirely plausible, but who knows?), but he will not be able to practice with the squad until it is official. The worst case for Dieng and Louisville is that as someone who took courses in the school prior to being disqualified, Dieng, should his appeal be denied, would be barred from ever playing for Louisville.

Though the Athletic Directorship is an administrative job (and therefore should have no direct effect on what happens on the floor), Seton Hall's athletic has drawn negative conference office comments recently for cutting back on several programs, most notable the track programs. While DePaul and St. John's opened their wallets to attract top-level veterans to fill their head coaching openings, Seton Hall opted to go the below the "Red Line" route when hiring a replacement for Bobby Gonzalez. A similar decision when selecting the next Athletic Director may be interpreted in the conference front office that the country's oldest diocesan university is insufficiently committed to funding and supporting a full slate of (male and female) athletic programs. Word that the search process may take an entire academic year cannot be welcomed by the Powers That Be in the Big East Offices.

Wooten, a walk-on forward will enjoy the very unusual experience of being honored twice on Senior Night, but may see very few minutes during the season.

North Carolina Pregame -- Grasping at Straws?

I will try to post a few numbers before game time. For most of the week I have been looking around for some positive press about Villanova. And there are quite a few feel good stories about the squad, the staff and the school. I could probably put together a separate post for each team member, chock full of links to stories. But not many analysis that suggest the Wildcats have more than a very remote possibility of beating the Tar Heels.

But there are one or two. For the Villanova fans out there who have had problems finding them...

Steve Ginsburg writing for Reuters posted a "looking back at 1985" piece that featured how the traditions set by the earlier teams have bolstered the confidence of the current team. There are 4 generations of Villanova players taking the back of the guys on the court.

ESPN conducted a round table with four of their principal college basketball writers (Pat Forde, Andy Katz, Dana O'Neil and Mark Schlabach). The four engaged in a conversational breakdown of the Final Four teams, bounded by a series of eight questions. Only Dana O'Neil (DPO to her fans) picked the 'Cats to win their game with North Carolina. A writer for the Philadelphia Daily News for a number of years, during which she worked as the Villanova beat writer (basketball), DPO has been far from a homer for the 'Cats since moving over to ESPN. Her nod to Coach Wright and the team was something of a surprise. Mark Schlabach tabbed Scottie as "one player most important to his team's success", but DPO tabbed Ty Lawson. Nova's game plan may well involve taking Lawson out of his game.

Pete Thamel over at the NYT did a 100 word breakdown on the semi-final match ups that gives a nod to each team. He mentioned the physical play, but also the speed of the Villanova squad as factors that may neutralize the Tar Heels' size and perimeter shooting.

Todd Rosiak long time Marquette Golden Eagle beat writer for the Journal Sentinel wrote a complementary break down of the surviving Big East teams. The piece featured comments from Jerel McNeal, Marquette's outstanding combo guard.

"Most definitely," McNeal said. "I don't think a lot of people gave them a chance against Pitt. It's a situation where Villanova's a scrappy team. They're going to play as hard as anybody that's left in the tournament, and they have the talent, athleticism and guard play to do it. Cunningham is a lot better than people think...


"All those guys are playing at a high level and playing as hard as they do, and playing together, they have a chance to beat anybody."

I will take that.

AccuScore, a simulation service hosted over at ESPN this season does predict a North Carolina win (going out on a limb...), but Stephen Oh did write a short essay on the characteristics of a Villanova win. According to Oh, Villanova will have to defend the 3 while shooting at least 38% from beyond the arc. They will also have to out rebound the Heels. The Wildcats, according to Oh, will have to keep turnovers down, below their season average, but do not need to have fewer than North Carolina. While article is subscription only (linked here), the Fact on Villanova Sports blog has reproduced a number of the tables. Interesting material, even if Fact's headline ("AccuScore Likes 'Nova's Chances") is not exactly accurate.

Over at the Basketball Prospectus stats maven John Gasaway takes his own "numbers first" look at the semi-final match-ups. The backcourt's ability to penetrate the lane may pose a bigger problem for the Tar Heels than some imagine -- it did early in the Tar Heels' ACC schedule -- have the Heels learned to defense it better? In the end however, Gasaway believes height -- or lack of it vis a vis the Tar Heels -- will spell the difference.

Also over at the Basketball Prospectus, Ken Pomeroy posted for only the 2nd time this season. His latest essay, "Transition Game", looks at the effect of pace (numbers of possessions) on North Carolina's game (or more specifically, their chances of winning). While Pomeroy does not think a lower paced game will diminish UNC's chances of beating Villanova, I noted in my look at those numbers that the Tar Heels' offensive and defensive efficiencies suffered (albeit not by large numbers) when possessions are limited.

Preview American University -- NCAA 1st Round

Background...
The Wildcats, #3 seed in the East Region, meet the #14 seeded Eagles of American University in the 7:30pm game, Wachovia Center in the Philadelphia pod of this season's NCAA Tournament. The Eagles, winners of the Patriot League Tournament last week come into the Wach riding a 13 game winning streak. This is only the second time in recent memory that the 'Cats have been seeded #3. The last time was 1995 when the 'Cats met the Monarchs of Old Dominion University in a 1st round game in Albany, NY. The Wildcats and Eagles have played 8 times in a series that dates back to 1932, with 3 games played between 1991 and 1993 (a 2-for-1 deal?). Villanova holds an 8-0 margin.

Common Opponents, Good Wins, Bad Losses...
The 'Cats and Eagles shared two common opponents -- a team from each other's conference -- during the past season...

	Nova		Am U
Opponent	W/L	Diff.	W/L	Diff.
Navy	W(H)	+10	W(H)	+5
Navy			W(A)	+1
Georgetown	L(H)	-2	L(A)	-24

American University (Patriot League, 24-7, 16-1, RPI #74) is 0-4 versus the RPI Top 50 with losses to Georgetown, Maryland, Oklahoma and Fairfield. Maryland (#10 seed, West Region) and Oklahoma (#2 seed, South Region) are in the NCAA Tournament. Best win for the Eagles was over the Dolphins of Jacksonville University (Atlantic Sun, 18-13, RPI #142), the Atlantic Sun Conference Champion who lost to East Tennessee State in their conference tournament and are a #8 seed in the NIT. Their worst loss came against George Washington University (A10, 10-18, RPI #203). The Eagles are riding a 13 game winning streak coming into Thursday's game.

Offense, Defense, by the Numbers...
American runs one of the lowest paced teams in D1 ball, going for about 61.2 possessions per game (adjusted), about 8% fewer than the D1 pace (66.5), and about 10.5% lower than Villanova. The 'Cats are not comfortable playing at the lower pace (think Georgetown, DePaul and Rutgers) lately; whether they will be able to push the Eagles to accellorate their play may well rest with transition points and defensive rebounding. The Eagles are better than average for offensive efficiency and defensive efficiency. Coming out of a conference whose efficiencies largely (but not universally) register below average in D1, gives the Eagles some separation between themselves and the rest of the conference, as the efficiency margins below suggest...

			Eff.
Team	PPP	Op PPP	Margin
American	1.08	0.89	0.19
Holy Cross	1.03	0.91	0.12
Navy	0.98	0.96	0.02
Bucknell	0.93	0.98	-0.05
Lehigh	0.90	0.95	-0.06
Army	0.87	0.94	-0.07
Colgate	0.92	0.99	-0.08
Lafayette	0.94	1.04	-0.10

American was the class of the Patriot League this season and it was not (from an efficiency perspective) very close. How does American's offense measure up with Villanova's defense? The numbers show a few places where it could get very competitive...

When American has the ball...
				FTA
	eFG%	TO%	OR%	FGA
Eagle O	53.8	20.9	32.0	32.8
Wildcat D	47.4	21.9	30.6	37.9

Villanova's 3 point defense will tested yet again. The Eagle's low pace combined with high 3FGA-to-All FGAs percentage (about 37.6%, ranked #69 in D1) suggests the Wildcats will be in a Thompson or Beilein type game, with Eagles (most likely their guards Derrick Mercer and Garrison Carr -- especially Carr -- and Nick Hendra) running off screens and back cuts to see open looks on the perimeter. American hits a decent enough percentage of their 3s (37.7%, #40) to be dangerous. Brian Gilmore, a 6-8 senior forward/center plays a role much like Dante Cunningham, provide an inside threat good enough to prevent a 3 point line type defense. Gilmore, along with backups Brian Lumpkin (freshman, 6-8, 210lbs) and Frane Markusovic (senior transfer from USF, 6-10, 240lbs) are efficient from inside the arc, but tend to, either from PT or possessions, get few opportunities to score. A point of interest may well be turnovers. American is not especially careful with the ball, racking up a mediocre turnover rate of 20.9 to go with their average offensive rebounding rate of 32.0. These are not terrible numbers, just average/below average numbers. Nova will press them a bit in both areas. The Eagles don't get to the line often, a mixed blessing to be sure. While they won't rely on points from the stripe to feed their offensive production, lack of aggression also means Nova's best players will most likely be available throughout the game, something of a problem in the closer games the 'Cats have played this season.

Looking at Villanova's offense versus American's defense, we find a few of the same points of competition...

When Villanova has the ball...
				FTA
	eFG%	TO%	OR%	FGA
Wildcat O	51.4	18.9	36.0	42.7
Eagle D	44.9	20.2	29.0	35.2

According to the numbers Villanova should find their shots contested rather vigorously by the American starting lineup. American has however, one of the shortest lineups in D1 ball; Pomeroys computes their average height at 74.9 inches (#335) with an effective height of -1.1 (#240) low to very low for D1 ball. While Pomeroy does cite mitigating circumstances when considering height, the conclusion is long enshrined among the truisms -- height powers defenses. In American's case the height deficit has been mitigated by experience, the squad is ranked #2 in D1 for experience (Villanova by contrast is ranked #65). Villanova is more than a little familiar with that combination. Will the 'Cats exploit the height advantage while negating American's experience? This may be one of the few times when the fans will be able to see both Scottie and Fish put in extended time together in the back court.

Keating, Pomeroy, Pythagoras, Tiernan...
The log5 probabilities show Villanova has a 90% chance of taking this game. The teams will probably play for about 62 possessions, below D1 average, but low enough to disrupt the Wildcat's gameplan and offensive flow? Pomeroy's efficiency comparison projects a 13 point Wildcat win. According to Pete Tiernan's PACE system, there are 4 factors present in most (non-power conference) Cinderellas...
1. The squad is dominated by seniors. Check. American as noted before is one of the most experienced in D1 ball.
2. The squad is dominated by guards. Check. There are articles by the ream about Carr and Mercer. Not to mention senior backups Frank Borden, Bryce Simon and Jordan Nichols. Lots of experience in the back court and wings.
3. A solid starting unit that has accumulated a lot of solid wins. Check. Three members of the starting 5 have logged >80% of the minutes at their positions, the next 3 have 50% or better of the minutes as well. And American was the regular season and conference tournament champions in the Patriot League.
4. Meeting the favorite on a truly neutral court (not too close to the favorite's home). Ahhh, nevermind.

Jordan Brenner and Peter Keating, analysts for ESPN this season, who developed the "Vulnerable Giants & Giant Killer" approach to upset analysis, identified 2 vulnerabilities exhibited by Villanova...
1. Nova's 3 point defense is suspect (and American shoots it pretty well).
2. The Wildcats rely on free throw points for a large(r) part of their point production. Free throw points comprise nearly 25% of the 'Cats total points.
But they suggest the Eagles are not strong enough across the board to pull the upset (possible, but not probable...). Noteworthy as a counter point to the Giant theories, the 'Cats give up a lot on fouls (a weakness), but the Eagles, by offensive style (many POT characteristics), are in no position to exploit that weakness. A paradox about Nova's 3 point defense (not obvious unless you look at both the percentage taken and the rate at which their opponents convert...) is that opponents don't convert at an especially high rate (33.9%, earning Nova a rank of #149 -- in the upper division of D1-- the average is 34.2), but what those do is take a lot of 3s relative to the total number of FGAs taken (about 41%), thus translating their converted 3s into 34.7% of their point production. It appears that the 'Cats do a mediocre job of defending the 3, but opposing teams take those 3FGAs because relative to the available 2FGA opportunities, the 3FGA translates to a better point yield. The conversion rate for opposing 2FGAs is 45%, ranking Villanova #62 in D1. The Wildcat defense works to shut down the inside, if the 'Cats can clamp down enough on American's 2FGAs to force the Eagles outside (and given their propensity to shoot the 3, the Wildcats may not have to twist their ah...wings too hard to push them beyond the arc...), the dimensions of the Wachovia Center may be enough to throw their shooting off. If the projected pace holds, putting up more than 70 points should seal it (given that the 70 points are scored by Villanova...) for the 'Cats. More than 75 points will most likely spell blowout.

What Others Say
Looking around for more previews? Try...
Tim over at the Nova News Blog penned a good background piece on the game.
The Villanova Viewpoint Publisher wrote a three part essay examining American's Non conference schedule and results, American University's Patriot Conference Results, with the latest installment covering American's rotation & gameplan. All three installments contain links to American Univrsity blogs and sources for an Eagle-based perspective.

A New Blog: Fact on Villanova

When Pete over at Let's Go Nova mentioned there was another Villanova blog out there, I looked around but could not find them. The DePaul seems to have brought everyone out.

Fact and Blueman jump with both (all 4?) feet in this latest addition to the Nova Blogospher, Fact on Villanova Sports. The author(s) promise their blog will offer lots of opinion, editorials and information about the Villanova sports world beyond men's basketball. Welcome to the Nova Blogosphere fellas.