Rivalries -- The Big 5

A City Tradition
I first learned about the Big 5 when I was a freshman at Villanova. My roomate, a native of Trenton, New Jersey and a die hard Phillies/Eagles fan, was a huge fan of The City Series. And little wonder. If the rest of the country had difficulty seeing a college basketball outside of the campus gym (NCAA finals & the UCLA/Houston game of 1966 excepted) fans of the Big 5 saw many of their series games televised throughout the Philadelphia media market, one of the innovations introduced with the inception of the series back in the 1950s. The series was approaching its peak years, still flying under the national sports radar. Lacking an "outsider's perspective" may have been a mixed blessing as Philadelphia fans developed a fondness for many of the rivalries' more passionate traditions -- the signs and pranks (good), the chant-counter chants (very good) and the confetti and streamer blizzard that celebrated the first basket of the game (very bad). The "1st Basket Celebration" required a time out to clear the debris off the Palestra floor. The fans stubbornly clung to this tradition until the NCAA instructed referees to assess a technical "delay of game/hazardous playing conditions" on the team whose fans tossed the confetti. Even then one or two "T"s had to be assessed before that "tradition" passed into the ages.

While bound by a renewable contract, the five schools entered into this quasi-conference playing arrangement in an era before the wholesale rise of conferences in the Northeast. Only the University of Pennsylvania belonged to an all sports conference in 1954, though St. Joseph's would join the MAC later in the 1950s.

Series Standings, 1955-2009
I reviewed and compiled these standings, using the records over at the University of Pennsylvania archives and Records Center, in addition to the media guides for the five schools (La Salle, Penn, St. Joseph's, Temple and Villanova). The record, compiled by an unacknowledged archivist, recorded the dates, scores, attendance and a short capsule for every one of the Big 5 games from 1955 (the first season) to 2000. Through the end of the 2008-09 series the teams have played 200 games apiece in the series, the composites:

	La Salle	Penn	St. Joe	Temple	Nova	Wins
La Salle	----	24	20	16	23	83
Penn	26	----	16	17	14	73
St. Joseph's	30	34	----	25	22	111
Temple	34	33	25	----	24	116
Villanova	27	36	28	26	----	117
Losses	117	127	89	84	83

	Composite
	W	L	Pct.
La Salle	83	117	0.415
Penn	73	127	0.365
St. Joseph's	111	89	0.555
Temple	116	84	0.580
Villanova	117	83	0.585

Ironically, Penn owns the worst overall winning percentage in the series, but the Quakers also have the best single decade winning percentage during the full round robin periods -- 0.725, earned for their 29-11 record compiled 1971-80. Over the course of that decade, those Quaker teams went to eight NCAA postseason tournaments, finished #1 in the big 5 six times and won eight Ivy League titles. The late Chuck Daly coached those teams from the 1970-71 season through the 1976-77 season, compiling a 125-38 (0.767) record. Note that Temple posted a 0.792 winning percentage during the period 1991-2000 on a record of 19-5. Most of that decade saw the Big 5 teams play a reduced (2 game) round robin in which the opponents/match ups were rotated. Villanova is however, on the verge of equaling (if not besting) both of those records. The Wildcats teams of 2001-02 through 2009-09 have compiled a 29-7 (0.806) record. If they lose all 4 games (perish the thought) next season, they will do no worse than tie the Quaker's 1971-80 record, while going 3-1 (or better) will translate into a winning percentage of 0.800 (or 0.825). If the Quakers have the lowest winning percentage, it is the Explorers who hold the dubious distinction of holding no advantage among the series rivals. La Salle finds itself on the losing side of each of their Big 5 series. La Salle (see table above) is Penn's saving grace.

Passing the Baton
The Hawks dominated the series in the period 1955-1970, piling up a winning percentage so significant (0.700) that it took nearly 2½ decades of mediocre ball (a 0.450 winning percentages overall) to bring St. Joseph's back to the rest of the field. An o'fer record in series games during the 1994 season opened the door for the Temple Owls & John Chaney to pass the Hawks. Their 0.450'ish winning percentage stalled the Hawks, but Temple under Coach Chaney posted a sizzling 33-11 record from 1982-83 (his first at Temple) to 1993-94 (when the baton passed from Hawk Hill to North Broad), an impressive 0.788 winning percentage. The Owls tenure atop the Big 5 ended this past season, a product of (as much?) rebuilding as the Owls transitioned from the Chaney Era to the Dunphy Era, as Villanova's record setting (2001-09) winning pace.

At a Glance
I have juxtaposed few odds and ends of interest in the tables below...

	Rivalries
	Nemesis				Goat
		W	L	Pct.		W	L	Pct.
La Salle	Temple	16	34	0.320	Nova	23	27	0.460
Pennsylvania	Nova	14	36	0.280	La Salle	28	22	0.560
St. Joseph's	Nova	22	28	0.440	Penn	34	16	0.680
Temple	[1]	24	26	0.480	La Salle	34	16	0.680
Villanova	Temple	26	24	0.520	Penn	36	14	0.720

Note [1] -- Both St. Joseph's and Villanova have 26-24 (0.520) records versus Temple.
As mirror programs, note that La Salle does not have a >0.500 record versus any of the Big 5 members, while Villanova does not have a <0.500 record versus those Big 5 members. Given their standings (and proximity in the Big 5 standings) it is hardly surprising that Villanova is a nemesis to 3 programs and Temple is nemesis to 2 programs. Odd then, that La Salle has had such (relative) success against Nova. The Villanova-Penn series is, by the way, the most lopsided in the City Series.

	Decades
	Best				Worst
		W	L	Pct.		W	L	Pct.
La Salle	[2]	19	21	0.475	1991-00	8	16	0.333
Pennsylvania	1971-80	29	11	0.725	1981-90	8	32	0.200
St. Joseph's	1961-70	25	15	0.625	1971-80	17	23	0.425
Temple	1991-00	19	5	0.792	1971-80	19	21	0.475
Villanova	1981-90	24	16	0.600	1971-80	19	21	0.475

Note [2] -- La Salle recorded an identical 19-21 (0.475) record in both the 1961-70 and 1981-90 decades.
The historical competitiveness of the series is such that each program has had (at least) one <0.500 decade, while also having (La Salle excepted) at least one >0.500 decade. Temple & Villanova can boast of a single sub 0.500 decade each, hardly surprising that their "Worst Decade" (along with St. Joseph's) would coincide with Penn's "Best Decade". St. Joseph's, not quite as fortunate as Temple and Villanova, suffered through a second sub 0.500 decade, 1991-00, albeit given the abbreviated round robin, the Hawks' record (11-13) yielded a 0.458 winning percentage.

Big East Walkaround -- Pre NBA Draft

The NBE Report tracked down two good off season reports in the past two days. Slam Online's Joey Whelan posts a very nice capsule on each Big East team's incoming class. He nominates Connecticut's class of four recruits (two each for the front court and back court) as "arguably the top recruiting class in the conference this season". The school the Huskies will argue with is Villanova, which also welcomes four freshmen recruits. Like UConn, Nova will bring in two for the front court (Yarou & Armwood) and two for the back court (Cheek and Wayns). Whelan also singled out Pittsburgh's four man class (three for the front court) for special mention, suggesting that with the additions of Dante Taylor (to whom he devotes some of his strongest praise), JJ Richardson and Talib Zanna, "...The Panthers may have assembled the rebounding recruiting class in the conference for next season..."

Jeff Goodman over at Foxsports also assembled a conference rundown, much in the same vein as a number of rundowns he has penned for other conferences. Goodman's is especially valuable because he identifies not only the outbound transfers (if any) that each team sustained since the end of the season, but also the staff changes. This has been an particularly volatile off season for Big East staffs as both South Florida and Villanova have lost assistant coaches to head coaching job searches, but Jerry Wainwright, under pressure from AD Jean Ponsetto, replaced his entire staff of 3 assistant coaches. A very unusual move for a Head Coach. Goodman also catalogs each team's invitational tournaments and noteworthy OOC games.

The NBE blogger reproduced Goodman's rundown and added his own notes/comments. The blogger's supplement identifies a number of the critical/impact transfers due to gain eligibility before and during the season and in a few cases, provides some background on the program. Goodman's presentation was a bit tighter, but the NBE post is worth the 5-7 minutes extra after you finish Goodman's piece.

The Courier-News' Rutgers beat writer Jerry Carino produced a couple of posts for his New Jersey Hoops Haven Blog last week. The first, "'Big Ten' reasons..." takes a look at reasons why Rutgers would do better by staying in the Big East. His second post "The Good, the Bad and the Ugly", touches two topics I have written about over here, Scottie Reynolds and the NBA (Carino labels "The Good") and several recent coaching changes -- long time FDU head coach Tom Green's unexpected (and late) termination ("the Bad") and Tim Floyd's unexpected (but not shocking) resignation as the NCAA closes in on some alleged violations in the USC basketball program ("the Ugly").

Rivalries

We come from St. Olaf, we sure are the real stuff.
Our team is the cream of the colleges great.
We fight fast and furious, our team is injurious.
Tonight Carleton College will sure meet its fate.
Um Yah Yah! Um Yah Yah!
- St. Olaf College fight song

Gasoline...and a Match?
No question the students of St. Olaf consider the (Carlton College) Knights their rival. While I believe the animosity is mutual, I have yet to find a reciprocal set of lyrics in a Carleton fight song. That may be due, however, to the Carleton student body's obsession with securing ownership of a stolen bust of German philosopher Carl Schiller. The Villanova Wildcat's fight song does not single out a particular opponent. Nor as far as I can tell, have any opponents honored the 'Cats with a fight song reference.

Over on the Nova Nation message boards this past spring the subject wandered from rivals to lopsided series. The consensus was that Rutgers might be Villanova's goat, but I was not sure the series was "substantial" enough to warrant the term rivalry. I did however, wonder about that series and others, knowing there has been a long (and one or two) lopsided series among Nova's Big 5 rivals, not to mention a gem or two buried in the history books, after all, Villanova has records going back to 1921. I decided to take a look at the 2008-09 Media Guide...

Familiarity Breeds...(Contempt)?
I began with the thirty or so schools that Villanova has played most. Two facts were apparent as I surveyed the list
1. A few series stretch back to Villanova's earliest days as an NCAA program.
2. Not a lot of games were played in any series. The St. John's series, for example (most games played with Villanova), logs 101 games as of 2009 in a series that goes back 88 (or so) seasons. Oregon over in the PAC-10 conference for example, played (through 2006) 323 games with cross state rival Oregon State (a series that dates back to 1903), and 275 and 266 games with interstate rivals Washington and Washington State respectively (again, both series date back to the early 1990s). Long conference affiliations with Stanford, UCLA and USC have produced series that number 122 (from 1920), 96 (from 1937) and 95 (from 1956) respectively. Big Ten rivals, those in the SEC and the Big 12 have routinely logged series numbers similar Oregon (and their PAC-10 conference mates).

The lack of games is a feature common to many schools in the Northeast. Unlike their counterparts west of the Appalachian Mountains, teams of the Northeast did not affiliate through conferences until relatively late. Until the mid/late 1970s (when CBS paid very large broadcast fees to the NCAA for the exclusive rights to broadcast the tournament, but insisted that all invitees had to accept), most series among Northeastern schools were negotiated as a series of individual home-n-away contracts. Arrangements like the Philadelphia City Series (the Big 5) and the St. Bonventure-Niagara-Canisius (the Little 3) series were the exception, not the rule. Consequently many programs from the Northeast show a similar pattern to their series -- a small number of longstanding (frequently played) series, usually about 1/3 of the school's "most often played" list, with about half of that list made of up schools whose series boasts less than 40 games over 8 or more decades.

	Record				Series
Team	Gms	W	L	Pct.	First	Last	Span
St. John's (NY)	101	43	58	0.426	1923	2009	86
Seton Hall	96	60	36	0.625	1921	2009	88
Providence	83	49	34	0.590	1936	2009	73
Temple	81	42	39	0.519	1921	2008	87
Boston College	77	53	24	0.688	1946	2006	60
Georgetown	66	27	39	0.409	1922	2009	87
St. Joseph's	66	42	24	0.636	1921	2008	87
Syracuse	64	30	34	0.469	1946	2009	63
Connecticut	59	32	27	0.542	1941	2009	68
Pittsburgh	59	32	27	0.542	1960	2009	49
La Salle	58	32	26	0.552	1934	2008	74
Pennsylvania	56	39	17	0.696	1922	2008	86
Duquesne	50	25	25	0.500	1923	1994	71
St. Bonaventure	39	21	18	0.538	1925	1979	54
West Virginia	38	20	18	0.526	1938	2009	71
Princeton	37	22	15	0.595	1943	1991	48
Rutgers	32	24	8	0.750	1932	2009	77
Notre Dame	31	17	14	0.548	1970	2009	39
Niagara	30	20	10	0.667	1923	2008	85
Canisius	29	20	9	0.690	1926	1994	68
Muhlenburg	28	18	10	0.643	1923	1961	38
Loyola MD	24	20	4	0.833	1927	1983	56
Rider	24	23	1	0.958	1936	2006	70
Miami (FL)	23	13	10	0.565	1992	2004	12
Bucknell	22	14	8	0.636	1927	2007	80
Scranton	22	18	4	0.818	1927	1965	38
North Carolina St	22	10	12	0.455	1930	2007	77
St. Francis PA	21	19	2	0.905	1940	2000	60
Manhattan	20	9	11	0.450	1922	2002	80
Xavier	20	16	4	0.800	1952	2006	54

It comes as no surprise that all of the top 12 "most played" teams are current (green) or former (red) members of the Big East Conference or Big 5 (yellow) affiliates. No coincidence that the first twelve teams listed have a current or past affiliation with the Big East Conference or participates in the Philadelphia City Series (the Big 5). The influence of conference is apparent in the Miami (FL) series, a matchup that began and ended with Miami's "just about a decade" membership in the Big East. The teams have not maintained the series, indeed given the distances, the differences in student bodies and institutional missions (and histories), the lack of contact should not surprise.

For Auld Lang Syne...
Villanova's list still reflects a bit of basketball history from the 1940s and 1950s. Muhlenburg and Scranton were early opponents who the Wildcats played more regularly during the late 1930s and throughout the 1940s. This was the same time period when Al Severance, concerned about the growing influence of gamblers in Madision Square Garden and the Philadelphia Convention Center, eschewed playe dates in those venues in favor of campus-based play dates. The consequence was the loss of those opponents (St. John's, Temple, La Salle and St. Joseph's) who used those facilities as a "second" home court. The Muhlenburg Mules were hardly a step down in competition however, having been NIT participants several times during the 1940s. Both Scranton and Muhlenburg left Division 1 during the 1950s/60s as the conferences they belonged to reclassified to D3 and D2 respectively. Villanova and Penn agreed to play a number of double headers in Penn's on campus arena, the Palestra, for the 1950 season. The experiment was successful enough to to catch the eye and interest of the three other city schools, and serve as the precursor to the Big 5. The Dukes, Bonnies, Purple Eagles and Griffens shared a rivalry with the Wildcats that in most cases date back to the earliest days of the program. Those series were sustained over the course of decades, and especially for the Dukes and Bonnies, were competitive throughout. Changing conference affiliations and the growth of D1 basketball spelled the end to those annual matches.

Competitors & Goats
I resorted Villanova's 30 Most Played Opponents (below) by Villanova's series winning percentage. This is one of the few tables where, from a competitive standpoint, being in the middle is better than being at either end...

	Record				Series
Team	Gms	W	L	Pct.	First	Last	Span
Rider	24	23	1	0.958	1936	2006	70
St. Francis PA	21	19	2	0.905	1940	2000	60
Loyola MD	24	20	4	0.833	1927	1983	56
Scranton	22	18	4	0.818	1927	1965	38
Xavier	20	16	4	0.800	1952	2006	54
Rutgers	32	24	8	0.750	1932	2009	77
Pennsylvania	56	39	17	0.696	1922	2008	86
Canisius	29	20	9	0.690	1926	1994	68
Boston College	77	53	24	0.688	1946	2006	60
Niagara	30	20	10	0.667	1923	2008	85
Muhlenburg	28	18	10	0.643	1923	1961	38
St. Joseph's PA	66	42	24	0.636	1921	2008	87
Bucknell	22	14	8	0.636	1927	2007	80
Seton Hall	96	60	36	0.625	1921	2009	88
Princeton	37	22	15	0.595	1943	1991	48
Providence	83	49	34	0.590	1936	2009	73
Miami (FL)	23	13	10	0.565	1992	2004	12
La Salle	58	32	26	0.552	1934	2008	74
Notre Dame	31	17	14	0.548	1970	2009	39
Connecticut	59	32	27	0.542	1941	2009	68
Pittsburgh	59	32	27	0.542	1960	2009	49
St. Bonaventure	39	21	18	0.538	1925	1979	54
West Virginia	38	20	18	0.526	1938	2009	71
Temple	81	42	39	0.519	1921	2008	87
Duquesne	50	25	25	0.500	1923	1994	71
Syracuse	64	30	34	0.469	1946	2009	63
North Carolina St	22	10	12	0.455	1930	2007	77
Manhattan	20	9	11	0.450	1922	2002	80
St. John's (NY)	101	43	58	0.426	1923	2009	86
Georgetown	66	27	39	0.409	1922	2009	87

Interesting that those series where Villanova holds the greatest advantage are the least frequently played. I was surprised to see Villanova held an advantage that large over Xavier. While the two schools played 11 games in the 1950s and 1960s, the last regular season game was the 1973 season-ending matchup at Xavier. The last two meetings were a post season tilt during Villanova's NIT championship run in 1994 and a Wildcat loss to the X-men at the 2006 Paradise Jam. That Rutgers is Villanova's least competitive Big East opponent (South Florida, with 3 losses excepted) is hardly surprising, but Penn, a Top 25 All Time ranked program as Villanova's easiest (by far) Big 5 opponent should trigger a few head scratches.

When Does a Series Become a Rivalry?
1. Locality isn't required, but it helps -- St. Olaf and Carleton are both located in Northfield, MN. Bragging rights for Northfield may seem like small stakes, but in the dead of winter Northfield may seem like the universe. It is only 15 miles from Bethlehem, PA (Lehigh) to Easton, PA (Lafayette College). Is New England big enough for both Providence and Boston College (I gave preference to a conference mate). Notre Dame and USC have managed to stoke a (football) rivalry that stretches halfway across the continent, but it has to be easier if the rival is across town (like USC & UCLA; Cincinnati & Xavier) or within traveling distance (Seton Hall & Rutgers).
2. Contending for something of value raises the stakes -- and the passions. Villanova and Georgetown contended for a National Championship 24 years ago. That single game has become a reference point for both teams (especially when they meet and both squads are contending for conference honors), but the passion has not been sustained over the decades. Like many "failed relationships", it may be a matter of bad timing -- the Hoyas have tended to be down when the 'Cats are up, and visa versa (most of the time). Despite a promising, 7-6 pre-Big East start to their series, Villanova has compiled a passion-dampening 0.409 winning percentage against the Hoyas (worst of any of their Big East conference mates). The Thompsons have been heck on the Wildcats.
3. Sibling Rivalries -- are often the most heated. Our Civil War generated passions for a century after its conclusion, quite unlike World War II, after which the US entered into alliances with Germany, Italy and Japan within a decade after the conclusion of hostilities. Both Carleton College and St. Olaf are ranked in the Top 50 among Liberal Arts colleges (Carleton holds the decided edge in rankings, which may explain why St. Olaf makes the direct reference while Carleton students feign greater interest in a dead German philosopher) and draw their students from the same ethnic groups and geographic areas. The same generally holds for the "L"s in Pennsylvania. The Temple-Villanova series may be, based on winning percentages, the most closely contested of all of the Big 5 series, but it is the Villanova-St. Joseph's series that carries the name "Holy War". A socio-economic breakdown of St. Joes's and Nova's student bodies shows that those two schools draw from largely the same groups in largely the same geographic areas of the Middle Atlantic region. Nothing stings like the taunts from your brother (or sister).

Reynolds Returns

The Nova Nation received good news this morning as rising senior Scottie Reynolds announced he will return to the Mainline for his last season to earn his degree and finish his college career. Welcome back Scottie!

Coaching Carousal Part 5: Last Turns?

Expecting the Unexpected
As of the close of the Spring signing period (May 15 this off season) only the Texas Pan-American's head coaching job was unfilled. The Broncs drew from the DII ranks and hired Ryan Marks, head coach of St. Edwards University (TX) to head up the men's basketball program on May 27th. That should have closed the book on coaching changes this off season...but for the inevitable, but unexpected, turn. This off season saw a twist similar to the St. Louis job turnover in 2007. The Billikens "released" Brad Soderberg two days into the Spring signing period (April 17) and replaced him 10 days later with Rick Majerus, surprisingly late in the cycle. This off season Fairleigh Dickinson University fired their coach of 26 years, Tom Green (as gracious as the press release was worded, AD David Langford did say the decision was his, not Green's & he had decided "...there needed to be a change months ago..."). Langford cited the fiscal calendar as the determining factor, a tacit acknowledgment that the economy may be having an impact not only on the decision(s) to retain (other) coaches, but it may also affect the timing of the changes. Bret Campbell's resignation as head coach of the Tennessee-Martin Skyhawks on June 4 was more typical (though very regrettable) for coaching changes at this point in the off season. Campbell decided to resign after an internal audit revealed he had co-mingled funds from the Tennessee-Martin off season basketball camp with personal funds in violation of the school's policy.

By the Numbers
The 28 turnovers (8.1%) in DI coaching circles this off season represents the lowest point in a two year trend. The 2007 off season saw 60 coaching (17.9% of the DI coaching positions) turnovers, while 2008 saw 43 (12.6%) turnovers. Consistent with the past two seasons, the period of the NCAA tournament was the most active for turnovers. This year, possibly reflecting the economic downturn, over 57% of the vacancies were created during the three week period of the Tournament. An unsettling trend over the past two seasons has been the turnover during the season -- in both 2008 and 2009 approximately 15% of the vacancies have been created during the regular basketball season. An overwhelming 10 of the 12 turnovers (83.3%) in those seasons was employer-initiated. The lagging economy represents unfamiliar ground this off season. Couple the contracting economy with the expanding ranks of DI basketball (144 teams in 2008-09, up from 136 in 2006-07 -- a 6% expansion over 2 seasons, with more to come), and we may have a few more coaching vacancies both during this off season, and in the season to come.

Signs of the 2009 Off Season #3 -- Big East Breakup

We Have All Been Here Before...
Basketball historians often credit Dave Gavitt, Providence basketball coach cum Athletic Director (followed by Big East Commissioner...and finally, Boston Celtics GM), with creating the original "basketball first" conference when, in 1979, he convinced the 7 charter members of the Big East (Boston College, Providence College, University of Connecticut, St. John's University, Syracuse University, Seton Hall University and Georgetown University) to forego their previous conference commitments and forge the Big East Conference. Those historians forget the marquee sport in the Atlantic Coast Conference was basketball, and the principal motivation for the secession of the ACC's seven charter members from the old (and prestigious) Southern Conference back in 1953 was post season play. The ACC was the original "basketball first" conference, and until formation of the BCS, the ACC appeared to weigh most decisions in light of the impact on men's basketball.

The formation of the BCS back in the 1990s has posed a constant challenge for the Big East. Historically about half of the conference members did not field a D1-A football team, and the original conference made no provisions to underwrite a BCS-level football conference. Expansion into BCS football in 1992 brought, over time, new members in three flavors -- "all sport" (Miami & Va. Tech), "all but football" (Notre Dame) and "football only" (Temple & Rutgers). The unique half-n-half makeup of the membership has, over time, disturbed third party observers and mainstream media sportswriters far more than the conference fans. Expanding the 8/9 member conference to accommodate an 8 member BCS-worthy football conference was, inevitably, lamented (NYT's George Vescy commentary is a good example) by many in college basketball circles, but accepted by others (see Kevin McNamara's 2005 background piece from the Providence Journal) as the price for keeping the basketball component together. And triggered speculation over further realignments that have grown into a cottage industry. The early mega-conference detractors (Mike DeCourcy among the earliest and loudest) authored commentaries that, at times, seemed to reflect equal parts anger and skepticism. Despite having early (negative) speculations about the conference refuted, DeCourcy has allowed skepticism over the conference's future bias his analysis of conference sports. Size and the hybred nature of the Big East has the capacity to drive some critics to distraction...not to mention fuzzy logic. Jay over at the GameJabs Blog takes the award for the most obnoxious suggestion however, as he declares the Catholic (basketball-only) contingent rename themselves the Metro Conference (capitalizing on the basketball reputation of the old Metro Conference), but, he adds, the schools should substitute the "t" in Metro with a crucifix. Wow, dude...

In the aftermath of "The Raid" in 2004, I have wondered once or twice, if the ACC's expansion was motivated as much by the desire to break up the Big East and thereby destroy their biggest basketball competitor as it was by their publicly stated desire to form a twelve team conference and reap the financial benefits of a championship football game (and a possible increase in BCS Bowl invitations). The subsequent reformation of the Big East (the addition of 5 schools from CUSA) has, ironically, only fueled speculation over the Big East's future.

The Latest Turn
If the speculation is annual, the catalyst changes. This off season Penn State's football coach, Joe Paterno, kicked off the latest round of speculation with a May 1 interview during which he restated his desire to have the Big Ten play a football championship game, a move that requires a twelfth team. Who can blame Paterno, whose Nittany Lions anchor the eastern "flank" of the Big Ten Conference, for looking eastward at the NYC media market as he named his preferred candidates (Syracuse or Pittsburgh or Rutgers)? The speculation has, despite repudiation by Big Ten Commissioner, lingers on, opening the door to a variety of realignment scenarios in recent weeks...a few involving, directly and indirectly, several Big East teams.

For the conference realignment, fantasy-league contingent, check out Matt Peloquin's massive "Conference Realignment Grid" in which he identifies (literally) at least 5 dozen different schools and realignment scenarios. Peloquin also produced a very long analysis of the conference's finances (mostly TV contracts and allocation of the post season appearance monies), with an (over?) on the recent successes of the conference's BCS members. Though he provides an interesting if flawed analysis of the state of the conference (one way to "save" the Big East is to expand it to 18 teams?! Really?), he does provide two important dates for the Big East fan to consider:
1. 2010 is the last year the football schools can exit without paying an exit fee. They also get to keep their accumulated shares of the basketball post season revenues.
2. 2013 is the year the ESPN's TV contract is up. Peloquin suggests the football schools alone could command a combined contract that would substantially increase the revenues to their programs.

Final (for now) Thoughts...
This was a very successful season for Big East basketball. The Garden sold out for 5 consecutive nights, with fans provided outstanding basketball games at least three times a week from January to early April (I'm counting the post season here). Despite post Raid concerns the football has prospered and the basketball has blossomed. The conference has sent 13 of it's 16 members to at least one post season basketball tournament. The ACC, expanded to accommodate their "football first" members, has yet to reap the supposed benefits of their expansion. Their 2nd place basketball team (and winner of their post season tournament) was blown off the court by the Big East's fourth place team. The all-Big East Regional Final produced one of the three best NCAA games in this decade. As long as the Big East members value community and quality of competition, "The Split Issue" is a non-issue.

Big East Efficiencies -- an Arial View of 2009

I was pulling together the numbers for the Big East conference games early last month, but it seemed that the stats from Ken Pomeroy's site were not behaving. An midseason look at the conference offensive and defensive efficiencies showed the "mid point" was 104.5. The offensive/defensive ratings I was getting at the end of the season did not "agree" (a test for validity -- offensive and defensive efficiencies should be equal for a closed set of games among a closed set of teams...), which made me very reluctant to develop/post an arial view of conference's teams. I resolved the problem earlier today -- and developed the season's end scatter chart. It turns out the end of the season efficiency reflected a bare 0.48% decline (104.0) from the midseason efficiency. Using 104.0 at the 0,0 point yields the chart:



In order to place each team in the "appropriate quadrant" (I confess my Cartesian bias is Northern Hemisphere-centric), I subtracted each team's offensive rating (points scored per 100 possessions) from the average of all conference games (104.0) and the conference average from each team's defensive rating (points yielded per 100 possessions). No arial would be complete without the data points, which I have formatted here:

	Rating		Diff. (104.0)
Team	Offense	Defense	Offense	Defense
Cincinnati	102.9	110.6	-1.1	-6.6
Connecticut	108.1	92.7	4.1	11.3
DePaul	92.0	117.0	-12.0	-13.0
Georgetown	101.4	102.9	-2.6	1.1
Louisville	106.3	92.4	2.3	11.6
Marquette	112.1	103.7	8.1	0.3
Notre Dame	108.2	108.1	4.2	-4.1
Pittsburgh	117.7	101.6	13.7	2.4
Providence	106.2	108.6	2.2	-4.6
Rutgers	91.8	106.4	-12.2	-2.4
Seton Hall	103.1	107.7	-0.9	-3.7
St. John's	94.3	105.2	-9.7	-1.2
South Florida	93.6	106.3	-10.4	-2.3
Syracuse	109.9	101.7	5.9	2.3
Villanova	110.0	101.0	6.0	3.0
West Virginia	106.3	98.1	2.3	5.9
Average	104.0
Standard Dev	7.4	6.1

Each team is linked to their corresponding Scouting Report page over at Ken Pomeroy's website. As always, many thanks to Ken Pomeroy for making the data available.

(Re)stating the Obvious
The top 7 teams in the conference (Louisville, Connecticut, Pittsburgh, Villanova, Marquette, Syracuse and West Virginia) were all positioned in the "Good Offense; Good Defense" quandrant. That is a modest departure from last season, when Upper Division finishers Pitt, Notre Dame and Villanova all landed in quadrants other than "GO/GD". Having established good offense however, two of the top 4 finishers (Pitt & Nova excepted), showed a strong(er) hand at defense. West Virginia appears to be the outlier among the Upper Division teams. Coach Huggins' team showed a high sensitivity to road/home games, possibly reflecting the lack of experience at several crucial positions (Bryant stepped into the #1 when Joe Mazzulla injured his shoulder). The strong defensive finish, coupled with the return of 76.8% of the minutes from last season's squad, suggest the Mountaineers should be among the conference elites next season. The conference's efficiency average moved suggested a stronger offense again this season, even stronger than last season's 102.7. Like last season, the standard deviation again suggested a greater gap between the best and worst conference offenses.

The Rich Get Richer?
Striking that thirteen of the conference's sixteen teams fall into either the "Good/Good" or the "Bad/Bad" quadrant. Does the bifurcation, 7 teams in the G/G quadrant, 6 teams in the B/B quadrant, suggest a growing gap between teams at the top of the conference and those at the bottom of the conference? Note that in the 2007-08 Arial six teams are located in the "Good/Good" quadrant and four teams are located in the "Bad/Bad" quadrant (Providence, located nearly on top of the Y-Axis had an offensive rating of -0.1, 0.1 below the conference average). Six teams, or 37.5% of the conference (or 43.8% if you count Providence) placed somewhere between "G/G" and "B/B". Three of those 'tweeners (Pitt, Notre Dame and Villanova) received NCAA invitations (one "G/G" team -- Syracuse -- did not), and one (Notre Dame) drew a bye in the Big East Tournament. Cincinnati (positioned just inside the "B/B" quadrant) also received a post season invitation. Those same 'tweener teams finished with conference records of .500 or better. One 'tweener team (St. John's) finished #14 in the standings.

Misc. Notes and Observations
1. If in this season Providence proved the exception to the rule, the corollary appears to be that "Good offense is preferred to good defense". Note that the bottom quartile finishers, St. John's, South Florida, Rutgers and DePaul all finished (irrespective of their defense), at that lowest end of the offense.
2. If the arial view is a guide to Georgetown's fall from grace in 2008-09, the indicators show that the Hoyas took a large step back from the 2007-08 season in both offense and defense. The most significant decrease however occured on the offensive side of the ball. The bloggers over at the Hoya Prospectus Blog began a painful review of the data last March/April. After a preliminary look at the relationship between Pace and Turnovers, the bloggers focused on Shot Accuracy, noting the steady decline of 3 point shooting (who knew that fast and point guard prototype Chris Wright would be a step back from slow but steady shooting Jon Wallace? Patience has it's virtue...) was the main culprit. The irony here is that Coach Thompson's Princeton Offense was providing the same shooting opportunities (per their Part 3 post, "Shot Selection"), but this past season's cast, Freeman, Sapp and Wright in particular, were not getting the shots to drop (except at Villanova...).
3. Notre Dame's decline seemed to be equal parts offense and defense. If the Irish under Coach Brey have never claimed defense as their strong suit, their ability to provide "just enough" defense to prevent their games from turning into horse races. They approached "neutral" last season, thus sustaining their status as a member of the Big East elites, but the 2008-09 saw a nearly equal (numeric) decline on both sides of the ball. Their defensive decline may have been a matter of time, but their offensive decline, particularly with the return of both Luke Harangody (inside) and Kyle McAlarney (outside) was a surprise. Zach Hillesland and Ryan Ayres proved to be a less effective complement to Harangody on the inside than Hillesland and Rob Kurz were last season.
4. Providence finished 2007-08 with a 6-12 record. Their offense was "nearly neutral" (-0.1 below the Big East conference average), while their defense was "below average" (-5.9 -- see last season's Arial View). The four game swing this season (10-8) was dramatic, but clearly reflected in the solid improvement in the Friar's offensive efficiency (+2.2), coupled with improvement (not as dramatic, but solid nevertheless) on defense (-5.9 to -4.6). Coach Davis saw many long time starters, especially in the front court, graduate this spring, and can expect to return only about 36.8% of 2009's minutes. 2010 could be a very grim time in Friartown.