Departures -- Cincinnati Thru Georgetown

The Clearing Fog...Part 1 of 4
I do not understand how, with the air thick with rumors (and news) of coaching changes, underclassmen putting in for the NBA draft or of transferring, analysts can make a projection of next season's Top 25. Even if the roster is inert -- staff and players stay in place and no new faces in the rotation for next season -- player development and life altering events remain the variables in the team dynamics.

The deadline has passed for pulling out of the NBA draft, and (for now) all head coaching positions in the Big East are staffed. A pause, to enumerate those departed and consider the changes, may in order. I have listed the losses to each team (seniors and NBA draft hopefuls, academic casualties and late-breaking coaching turnovers may affect each team's standing.

Cincinnati

Player	Class	Pos	Status
Lance Stephenson	FR	F	Draft-In
Steve Toyloy	SR	C	Grad
Deonta Vaughn	SR	G	Grad

Vaughn and Toyloy were known, but the loss of Stephenson, especially after he announced he would return for his sophomore year, was surprising and a frankly disappointing. Vaughn was a scoring point guard who tended to be more efficient when someone else (Jamal Warren for example) ran the point and let him come off screens. Cashmire Wright should get a long look at the #1, but someone (or a combination of someones) will have to supply the instant offense that Vaughn and Stephenson did last season. Coach Mick Cronin finished his fourth season and touts a 61-68 (0.473) record, with two trips to the (non-NCAA) post season to show for his tenure. Any in the Bearcat Nation looking for a speedy bounce back from the aftermath of Huggins/Kennedy have to be disappointed now.

Connecticut

Player	Class	Pos	Status
Jerome Dyson	SR	G	Grad
Gavin Edwards	SR	F/C	Grad
Alex Hornat	SR	F	Grad
Jonathan Mandeldove	SR	C	Grad
Stanley Robinson	SR	F	Grad

The first time in three (off) seasons the program has not had an early entry into the NBA draft...a good sign. The second time in the past four seasons the Huskies have not made the NCAAs either...a bad sign. The program is under investigation over the Nate Miles recruitment. The specifics, though undisclosed, have warranted the (additional) expense of a Kansas City law firm that specializes in NCAA-related offenses, retained to represent the program as they work to answer the charges. The fees, according published reports, will exceed $300,000. Coach Calhoun, who has missed games in each of the last three seasons, has recently signed a new contract that promises to keep him in Storrs through the 2014 season. Though he will be 73 in that contract's last year, the new contract was welcomed as a sign to potential recruits, that the long-time coach expects to continue. Whispers from the staff suggest the senior losses are addition by subtraction, and Coach Calhoun raved about the incoming class, generally regarded as second in the conference to Syracuse's, at a recent press conference.

DePaul

Player	Class	Pos	Status
Mac Koshwal	JR	F/C	Draft-In
Will Walker	SR	G	Grad

Walker and Koshwal were the team's most reliable/prolific scorers. The Demons come through a tumultuous season, one that saw five year head Coach Jerry Wainwright fired in December, and the interim coach, Terry Webster, not retained when Clemson Head Coach Oliver Purnell, took over in early April. Reaction to Oliver's hire and Webster's termination was (at best...) very mixed, with some area Public League coaches appreciative of early telephone contact, and AAU coaches unhappy about Webster's fate. Purnell's offense system is very different from Wainwright's, hopefully DePaul's administration and fan-base are not expecting a quick recovery.

Georgetown

Player	Class	Pos	Status
Greg Monroe	SO	C	Draft-In

The Hoyas have no graduating seniors and lose Greg Monroe to the NBA draft. Coach Thompson signed a contract extension last season, and though Georgetown took an unexpected quick exit from the NCAAs (97-83 first round loss to #14 seed Ohio University), continues to have the confidence of the administration and fans. The Hoyas are penciled into a few preseason Top 25s and a watch list or two.

Seton Hall - Cincinnati Post Game: Closing Out

Live Bloggin'...Impressions
It is interesting to sit on press row and watch the arena fill up. I like to arrive early as a "fan", sit in the stands and watch the rest of the crowd show up as the players go through their pre-game warmups. How team members interact and work together during the "prep time"; how the fans arrive and interact as they take their seats, can sometimes tell me things about the team and their fans. The Rock's lower bowl was filled to capacity for West Virginia (a bit surprising given the timing -- the day after Christmas) and the weather (Northeast dreary, wet and dark, typical of late December in the New York to Boston Corredore). Indeed, the 12/26 Hall fan-base was out in force, though they seemed somewhat tentative. These were not rowdy New Jersey fans out for what they knew would be a good time, but rather more like seekers. Travelers who themselves were in search of answers to questions. How would the taem do? How did they look? Maybe it was the opponent; maybe it was the games running up to this Big East opening of openings. I don't know, but the post Christmas crowd was strangely quiet for just under 10,000 assembled New Jerseyans.

When I arrived for the Cincinnati game I again looked around for crowd signs. Frankly the signs seemed worse for Saturday's game. The crowd was smaller, fewer turned out (confirmed by the official box score), even though this promised to be the best match-up of the first four/five home games. And boy were they quiet, almost mournful. From the pre-game to the first 10 minutes of the 1st half the loudest crowd responses came for the young fellow who sang the National Anthem (he did do an absolutely terrific job btw), and the announcement that the Jets led the Bengals by a 14-7 score (that came during the 1st timeout of the half). The arena became almost morgue-like as the Bearcats pushed their early lead out to 12 about midway through the 1st half.

The official web site has the wire story and the box score. The breakdown by 4 minute sequences...

		Scores by...
		Sequence			Overall
Time		Hall	Nati		Hall	Nati	Margin
1st Period
16:00		9	14		9	14	-5
12:00		5	8		14	22	-8
8:00		9	4		23	26	-3
4:00		8	2		31	28	3
0:00		8	2		39	30	9
2nd Period
16:00		13	8		52	38	14
12:00		8	10		60	48	12
8:00		8	5		68	53	15
4:00		3	4		71	57	14
0:00		12	19		83	76	7

Through the first eight minutes of the 1st period the Hall went down by eight points (22-14), a slow start problem Coach Gonzalez commented on during his post game press conference. The Pirates however, were not victimized by cold shooting -- they were 6-12 (2-4, 4-8) -- they did not appear to be contesting shots (very well) through that time span. Cincinnati was red hot from the field converting seven of nine FGAs (3-5, 4-4). The turnaround started around the 8:00 minute mark, though it was not obvious from the score (check the margin). Pirate shooting was not necessarily more accurate (they went 3-7 from the field), but they started getting to the line -- 3-3 accuracy from the line not only cut into the margin, but also vested the Hall with a bit of confidence. And the Bearcats took their turn dealing with a cold streak, as they shot 2-9 from the field (both made field goals -- 2s by the way -- were assisted). SHU's scortching 16-4 run to close out the last eight minutes of the 1st half cannot be attributed to suddenly better shot accuracy (they went 5-12 & 0-3, 5-9 over the time period), but rather the fact that they got to the line and converted at a 6-6 clip. Other keys...
1. No turnovers over the span -- the Hall held a 8-0 takeaway-giveaway edge over the last eight minutes, noted several times by Coach Cronin during post game interviews. Coach Cronin, shaking his head indicated that beating the Hall's press had been a point of emphasis in Cincinnati's preparations, but had broken down during this period.
2. An ice cold run by the Bearcats. Cincinnati went 2-7 (note five fewer FGAs than SHU, the product of turnovers), 0-3 and 2-4, with no trips to the line during that eight minutes stretch.

Half-time Adjustments
The Pirates won the crucial 1st four minutes, 13-8 with what was their most accurate four minute sequence of the game, going 5-5 from the field (4-4, 1-1) and 2-2 from the line. Cincinnati's own 3-4 efficiency (along with 2-2 from the line) was negated and overcome by strong performances from Garcia, Pope and Hazell (who chipped in 5 points on 2-2 shooting). Nunu was particularly effective with 2 assists and 2-2 from the line. Cincinnati's last rally was triggered (in part) by Cashmire Wright insertion in to the back court. The pass-first point guard set up field goals by Vaughn and Gates with great passes. Wright really pushed the tempo, getting the ball over mid court to get Cincinnati's offense sets going before the Pirates could get their defense set.

Closing Out
Cashmire Wright changed the dynamic for the Bearcats, putting a much faster team on the court (one that better matched the Pirates?). Over the last eight minutes of the game Wright set the offense with five assists (Vaughn chipped in an assist too) as the Bearcats took 15 FGAs, 10 in the last four minutes, hitting 10-15 (3-7, 7-8) and no FTAs (much to the Pirates' credit). If SHU did not take nearly as many shots, five FGAs over the last eight minutes (why would they, up by 15 at the 8:00 mark, their strategy, entirely appropriate, was to work the shot clock & maximize the time for each of their remaining possessions), they did hit their free throws, going 9-10 from the line as Cincinnati committed 6 "change of possession" fouls in the last four minutes. Credit the Pirates for knowing how to close out the game.

Post Game Comments Coach Gonzalez (a Summary)
1. Coach mentioned the storylines coming into the game -- that the Pirates were struggling and were underdogs for the game. This must have bothered him because he specifically pointed out that the Pirates had taken two of their last three against the Bearcats. The comment has been relayed in a number of outlets, but his tone, earnest though not adament, has not been noted anywhere. He has taken notice of the press treatment.
2. He spoke about closing out games and opponents, in particular making free throws in the last few possessions. He noted with pleasure how Herb Pope was making his FTs.
3. The first half turnaround came up, and Coach Gonzalez credited the press and the turnovers it forced. He was especially happy with the guard play, going out of his way to cite all three of his point guards (Harvey, Lawrence and Theodore). He noted how he liked have two pgs on the court at the same time. Someone asked about Lawrence getting the start over Harvey, and the coach indicated that with the consecutive losses he was looking for a way to change the rhythm of the team and get them to refocus. He was very pleased with Harvey's work and suggested he would most likely start the next game.
4. He talked at length about Jordan Theodore, suggesting the sophomore had played an outstanding game. He called him "the pg of the future...Harvey is now, Lawrence is now and next season, Theodore is the future". He returned to Jordan's effort 3 separate times during the course of the press conference.
5. He was impressed (and very happy) with "how smart" Jeremy Hazell played. He was impressed with Hazell's shot selection and game awareness.

Post Game Coach Cronin Comments (a Summary)
The press room had emptied, most of the reporters left to interview the players in the Hall locker room. I stayed behind to finish comments for the live blog and shut down the machine. When I turned around to leave I realized there were two reporters interviewing someone standing to the side of the first row of chairs. At first I thought Coach Gonzalez had returned to the Press Room, but as I focused I recognized Coach Cronin.
1. He spoke in a low tone, his body language almost shy, quite unilke his demeanor on the court. I was able to hear him barking directions to his Bearcats throughout much of the two halves, even when the crowd was noisy.
2. He mentioned Vaughn's early struggles this season, but noted the junior guard's work ethic had really picked up in practice, and was one of the reasons the team had started strongly. Coach is a believer in the effort in practice reflecting/preparing the team for game situations. He felt Vaughn was really turning it around.
3. Coach Cronin credited the Hall press for forcing Cincinnati turnovers and playing themselves back into the game. He indicated that it frustrated his team because they had prepared for it, but still could not "solve" it during the game. This was a point he returned to several times, that despite preparing for it, the Bearcats could not match the speed. He liked Theodore too, was very impressed with the sophomore's play.
4. Thinks to Big East is too difficult. Clearly he respects the conference (and likes the competitiveness of the programs), but might be a bit weary with the pressure that comes with every game.

Big East Game Preview -- Cincinnati at Seton Hall

The Pirates of Seton Hall will host the Bearcats of Cincinnati at the Rock in Newark, NJ tomorrow night. With 16% of the conference schedule in the books is it too early to label a game "Must Win"? The Pirates are reeling from a four game losing streak, three coming complements of their Big East schedule. West Virginia, Syracuse and a mid winter road trip to Storrs, Connecticut...followed by a visit from (possibly) the most physical front court in the conference & Born Ready...who did Coach Gonzalez tick off? The Seton Hall/Cincinnati series goes back to 1955 and is knotted at 5. The Hall holds a 3-1 edge in Big East play.

Common Opponents, Good Wins, Bad Losses...
The Hall & 'Nati shared an opponent this year -- Connecticut:

	Hall		'Nati
Opponent	W/L	Diff.	W/L	Diff.
UConn	L (A)	-8	W (H)	+2

Home court might account for a few points (Pomeroy seems to go with around 4 to the home team), but this looks very close. For Cincinnati, good wins include the aforementioned Connecticut game (BE, 11-3, 2-1, #6 RPI), Vanderbilt (SEC, 10-3, #47 RPI) and Maryland (ACC, 8-4, #94 RPI). Cincinnati is saddled with four losses, none are counted as bad though. Seton Hall beat Cornell (Ivy, 11-3, #24 RPI) in Cornell. The Pirates have five losses, none counted as bad.

Lineups, Rotations
Coach Cronin will most likely start Deonta Vaughn (senior pg), Larry Davis (junior off guard), Lance Stephenson (freshman, wing/sf), Ibrahima Thomas (junior transfer, pf) and...the coach has conducted a mini-tryout the past four or so games for the #5. So far Yancy Gates (sophomore), Anthony McClain (junior) and Steven Toyloy (senior) have had one start apiece in Cincinnati's three Big East conference games. Who starts against the Pirates? Gates had a mediocre 10 minutes versus CS Bakersfield, after posting a double-double in the Pittsburgh game. Toyloy has been a very reliable (if somewhat pedestrian) in his 15 games (and 7 starts) this season. He averages 4.1 points and 4.3 rebounds. When Coach Cronin went 'tweener against Cal State Bakersfield, he started Rashad Bishop (junior, #3) and brought Davis in off the bench. In all, eight players -- five mentioned above Vaughn, Stephenson, Gates, Toyloy and Bishop, plus Cashmire Wright (red shirt freshman pg), Dion Dixon (sophomore #2) and Darnell Wilks (junior forward) -- have appeared in all 15 of Cincinnati's games this season. Thomas has appeared in every game for which he was eligible, and Larry Davis (a sometime starter) has appeared in 14 of 15 games, giving Coach Cronin a deep bench and a rotation of (at least) ten players. That does not include situational substitutes like reserve center Anthony McLean who, like Davis, started at least one game this season.

Coach Gonzalez will (according to game notes) start Keon Lawrence (junior transfer from Missouri) at the #1, Jeremy Hazell (junior) at the #2, Jeff Robinson (junior transfer from Memphis) at the #3, Herb Pope (junior transfer from New Mexico) at the #4 and John Garcia (senior) at the #5. Lawrence started at Connecticut after coming off the bench and Robinson has received minutes in virtually every game since becoming eligible after sitting a year per NCAA transfer rules. Both officially joined the roster before the Hall's 12/19 game with Temple (a 71-65 loss). Also certain to see minutes, Eugene Harvey (senior), a starter at the #1 for virtually his entire career, Jordan Theodore (sophomore combo guard), Jamel Jackson (junior JUCO, #2 guard), Robert "Stix" Mitchell (junior small forward) and Ferrakohn Hall (freshman #3/#4). Each has appeared in every Hall game this season. If Coach Gonzalez needs more than ten players, he can bring in Mel Oliver, a 6-10, 340 pound center and walk-ons Matt Cajuste or Darnell Gatling, a 5-9 pocket rocket. This is the deepest (and most talented) squad Coach Gonzalez has assembled during his 4 years at the Hall.

By the Numbers, Offense & Defense...
Cincinnati lacked a consistent scoring threat last season. Deonta Vaughn is very good, but no one else was consistent enough to draw serious attention. With the game on the line everyone knew who would get the ball and take the last shot. That Cincinnati did not have a true point guard (Cashmire Wright was injured before the season and applied for a red shirt) only complicated matters for Coach Cronin (though it simplified matters for the Bearcats' opponents, Vaughn was not going to run around a screen for a catch-and-shoot...he was the one with the ball). Cincinnati's eFG% has improved slightly over last season, Stephenson brings prolific scoring even as he draws defensive attention.

When the Bearcats have the ball...							FTA
	eFG%	Rnk	TO%	Rnk	OR%	Rnk	FGA	Rnk
'Nati O	49.1	159	20.0	123	38.0	42	29.2	317
Hall D	44.7	51	20.2	200	33.2	179	32.1	80

Vaughn however, still saddled with ball handling responsibilities, has a modest slump with his 3 point shooting. Vaughn is not a point guard, and has struggled with turnovers throughout his career. Concerns about Vaughn and Stephenson being able to share the ball appear to this point, to be unfounded as both are ranked in Pomeroy's top 500 for assist rates (maybe they pass to each other...). Offensive rebounding is crucial to Cincinnati; if the Bearcats miss the shot, chances are very good they will get a 2nd chance. For an offense that is not converting at a 50% or better rate, 2nd chance opportunities are important. While Cincinnati is "fairly average" at taking care of the ball, Seton Hall, with ball hawks like Paul Gause having moved on, is not particularly aggressive with take-aways.

The "Four Factors" look at Seton Hall's offense versus Cincinnati's defense:

When the Pirates have the ball...							FTA
	eFG%	Rnk	TO%	Rnk	OR%	Rnk	FGA	Rnk
Hall O	49.8	134	14.8	2	38.3	36	36.6	175
'Nati D	43.1	20	19.6	230	28.3	31	34.5	126

Note the contrasts -- The Hall shoots pretty well, but Cincinnati defends very well. The game may turn on whether the Bearcats can shut down Seton Hall's shooters (Jeremy Hazell and Herb Pope). There will be a war under the Hall's basket. The Pirates are a good offensive rebounding team (which makes their shooting even more effective), but the Bearcats are equally well-regarded as a defensive rebounding team.

Want to Beat the Bearcats? Then...
1. Get a hand in their face. When Cincinnati shoots worse than 45% (eFG%) they are 3-3. When they shoot better than 45% (eFG%) they are 8-1. When the Pirates allow their opponents a conversion rate better than 45% (eFG%) they are 3-5.
2. No second chances -- if the Bearcats miss, get the caroom. Cincinnati is ranked #6 in conference for offensive rebounding rates (38.3% overall). The Bearcats are 3-3 when opponents limit them to <39.0% of their misses. This is not a point of emphasis for the Pirates, as they are ranked #10 for defensive rebounding rates (32.5%), though only one opponent (Syracuse) has rebounded better than 39% against them (one of the Hall losses).
3. Keep them off the line. The Bearcats get to the line about 3 times for every 10 FGAs. When their FTA/FGA is < 30.0, they are 4-4 (& 7-0 when they get there =>30). This is another problem area for the Pirates, as they, on average, put their opponent on the line about once for every three FGAs (the stat maybe inflated by change-of-possession fouls).

Want to Beat the Hall? Then...
1. Make them miss. The Pirates record when held to Cincinnati's defensive eFG% or less is 1-4, when they shoot to their average or better, their record is 7-1. Their offense will most likely go through Jeremy Hazell, the Pirates' junior wing. Hazell gets about 28% of the Hall's possessions when he is on the court, and will take 34.6% of the shots when he is on the floor. For those who think Hazell is a ball hog, consider that he scores about 1.19 points per possession, better than the team's 1.11 conversion rate, an extremely unusual situation, particularly for a high-possession player. Herb Pope will be the second option, as the transfer will take about 25% of the possessions and 21% of the shots when he is on the floor. If Pope and Hazell are in together, the chances are excellent one of the two will have the ball in his hands (and will take a shot).
2. No 2nd chances. When the Hall is held to their offensive rebounding rate (or less), they are 2-4. When they exceed their average they are 7-1. Given that Cincinnati is very good at limiting 2nd chance opportunities, this will be the battle to watch.

Finally...
...This game will pit strengths against strengths - shooting versus shot defense, offensive rebounding versus defensive rebounding. Who calls this game could be very important. A "Let 'em play" crew would probably favor the Bearcats (those rebounding wars...Herb Pope is a terrible free throw shooter 38.2% conversion rate...that's not a typo, he hits less than ½ of his FTAs). Ken Pomeroy gives the Pirates a slight (3 point) nod -- that's less than the homecourt advantage.

I will be blogging live from the game at the Rock for the Rush the Court Blog. Stop over (I will launch a few minutes before the 6:00 tip off) and join the chat.

Other Sources
Game Notes from Cincinnati.

Preview 2009-10 -- Cincinnati Bearcats

Too Busy for the Details?
Coach Cronin returns a solid nucleus of players, including combo guard Deonta Vaughn, center Steven Toyloy, bf/c Yancy Gates and wing Rashad Bishop. Red shirt freshman Cashmire Wright should be ready to take over the ball handling responsibilities that will allow Deonta Vaughn to roam and find the open area. To that mix add Top 15 recruit Lance Stephenson out of New York City -- assuming he clears the NCAA Clearing House (among others), and, if the Bearcats can shake off memories of their season-closing 4 game slide, this squad should be ready to make a big (upward) move. Prognosis -- A 2nd quartile finish.

3 Years At a Glance
The 3 year table (below) is a great illustration of the effect of JUCOs. A good deal of experience available every other year, but a disquieting underachievement with that experience. The returning minutes this season come less from transferring juniors (or JUCO seniors) who bring a single season of DI experience to the table, but rather sophomores (1 year) and true juniors and seniors (2-3 years of experience).

	Returning...
	2010	2009	2008
%Min	77.9	45.5	74.9
%Pts	77.5	51.3	82.1
%FGM	78.0	49.8	81.4
%3FGM	79.8	69.7	88.2
%OReb	61.5	36.4	74.7
%DReb	71.3	35.5	74.8
%TReb	67.6	35.8	74.8

Returning minutes are among the highest in the conference this season, giving observers and fans a reason to expect a move to the conference's upper division. On the offensive side of the ball everything is pointing up, returning points, field goals made and rebounds all suggest the Bearcats can expect to be even stronger this season. The defense has been a big problem in prior seasons, as Cincinnati has ranked near the bottom in overall defensive performance. Looking at Oliver's four factors, the problem areas have centered on shot defense (eFG%) and allowing opponents to get to the line. For all of their aggression, the Bearcats allowed opponents to take 4 free throw attempts for every 10 field goal attempts. That is uncomfortably close to a 1:2 ratio of FTAs to FGAs. The aggression did not produce many turnovers either. I expect defensive rebounding will be among the best next season, the key for the Bearcats will turn on whether they can step up their field goal defense (in conference...overall did not seem to be much of a problem), defensive rebounding and force turnovers.

	According to Pomeroy...
	2008-09		2007-08		2006-07
	#	Rank	#	Rank	#	Rank
Overall ORtg	107.6	78	104.6	132	103.7	139
Overall DRtg	97.9	104	95.3	72	97.2	98
Big East ORtg	102.9	11	98.1	14	96.1	12
Big East DRtg	110.4	15	103.1	8	106.3	16
Four Factors -- Overall
All Off. eFG%	48.4	197	47.1	275	45.9	292
All Off. TOv%	20.4	179	20.8	172	18.9	58
All Off. OReb%	40.0	10	35.0	89	35.3	95
All Off. FTA/FGA	30.3	311	32.8	258	29.7	310
All Def. eFG%	47.3	88	49.2	134	52.0	252
All Def. TOv%	18.8	268	18.1	307	22.4	91
All Def. OReb%	34.2	237	30.2	64	32.4	111
All Def. FTA/FGA	35.4	150	46.1	321	37.9	198
Four Factors -- Big East
BE Off. eFG%	48.9	10	47.1	12	45.2	15
BE Off. TOv%	18.5	7	20.9	12	20.0	7
BE Off. OReb%	35.6	6	35.2	4	34.4	7
BE Off. FTA/FGA	29.3	12	31.9	15	30.4	12
BE Def. eFG%	51.8	13	48.8	6	55.2	16
BE Def. TOv%	17.1	13	18.4	12	21.0	6
BE Def. OReb%	34.4	10	30.9	4	33.1	6
BE Def. FTA/FGA	40.8	15	48.5	14	30.6	12
Miscellanious
All Gms Cons	24.9	321	19.3	133	21.4	201
All Gms Luck	+.023	78	-.019	193	-.041	260

Losing a slew of JUCOs (and transfers) at the end of the 2008 season took a toll on the team's consistency in 2009 (not to mention the Bearcat's defensive showing in conference). The JUCOs & transfers recruited in the aftermath of the Huggins/Kennedy changeover were replaced last season with freshmen (and a JUCO center named Steven Toyloy), two of whom played significant minutes last season. The two season lifespan of JUCOs and transfers over the past 3 seasons is also reflected in the Bearcats' record...

	For the Record...
	2008-09			2007-08			2006-07
	W	L	Pct.	W	L	Pct.	W	L	Pct.
Overall	18	14	0.563	13	19	0.406	11	19	0.367
Big East	8	10	0.444	8	10	0.444	2	14	0.125
Post Season?	BET/Rnd 1			CBI/Rnd1			No

Had they taken their 1st round game in the BET (versus DePaul), the Bearcats may have worked themselves into a post season tournament (NIT? Most likely another tilt in the CBI) for the second post season running. Very desirable when trying to build a contending team.


The Bearcats' Nucleus
Coach Cronin will no doubt work this group of players for all they can produce offensively. The entire cohort could have used another consistent scorer...

On Offense
Player	Min%	ORtg	Poss%	Shot%	eFG%	PPWS	OR%	FTR%
Vaughn	88.5	104.8	24.7	24.1	49.0	1.07	1.9	30.1
Bishop	64.8	96.6	14.8	14.1	45.9	0.93	5.0	17.0
Gates	57.5	103.1	24.6	28.2	48.0	0.99	13.6	27.1
Dixon	54.1	104.1	19.2	20.5	45.4	0.97	6.4	33.3
Davis	53.4	101.3	18.0	21.9	46.6	0.94	4.1	9.6
Toyloy	39.5	98.4	15.5	10.6	59.0	1.06	8.6	79.5

When the shot went up last season, you could bet that either Deonta Vaughn or Yancy Gates (if they are on the floor) was the last to touch it. And that was a problem as the Bearcats could have really used a 3rd (consistent) option. If the Bearcats entered the 2010 season status quo ante, either Dion Dixon or Larry Davis would be good candidates to step into that 3rd (and/or 4th) scoring option. Both, hovering 19+ percent of the possessions and 20+ Shot% last season, hovers at the boundary of "Regular Guy" status in the offense. The key will be shot accuracy, at hitting their shots consistently was a problem for both last season. Stephenson, should he pass muster with the NCAA, will dramatically change that dynamic.

On Defense
Player	Min%	DR%	Ast%	TO%	Stl%	Blk%
Deonta Vaughn	88.5	10.9	27.3	23.1	0.0	2.3
Rashad Bishop	64.8	12.5	18.3	24.5	1.0	2.7
Yancy Gates	57.5	16.3	4.5	13.7	4.6	1.2
Dion Dixon	54.1	9.7	12.5	16.3	0.8	1.4
Larry Davis	53.4	5.7	14.0	17.2	0.6	1.8
Steve Toyloy	39.5	18.3	8.6	27.8	1.7	0.7

Significant Additions
Ranked #12 in the Class of 2009, 6-5, 225lbs wing Lance Stephenson supplies what could be the missing piece to a Bearcat squad that struggled at times last season. Stephenson, a much heralded stud out of Abraham Lincoln HS on Coney Island, NYC brings confidence and credibility to Coach Cronin's squad. Stephenson will almost certainly play DI ball for a single season. And he will spend that season in Cincinnati. Given the tumult of the past 3 seasons, Cincinnati did not need a lot of replacements this season, so recruits Jaquon Parker, a 6-4 PG out of Suffolk, VA and Sean Kilpatrick, a 6-5 SG out of White Plains, NY (by way of Notre Dame Prep in Massachusetts), will have time to develop. If redshirt freshman Cashmire Wright does not develop as anticipated, Parker may see some playing time. Kilpatrick is an accomplished outside shooter who (I suspect) Cronin anticipated developing to eventually step into (Dion) Dixon and (Larry) Davis' wing spot. The addition of Stephenson should motivate the trio to work harder.

Explode If...
1. Lance Stephenson clears the NCAA (transcrips, finances, etc.) and blends into a team offense that will look for Vaughn 1st and Stephenson 2nd. "Born Ready" joins an established squad that is missing a consistent offensive option. This is not a squad built around him, but rather one he must fit into.
2. Toyloy and Gates cut down on turnovers under the Bearcat basket while and build up their rebounding presence their opponent's basket. Gates will have to learn to defer to Stephenson (and Vaughn) on offense, and wait his turn as the 3rd/4th option.
3. The Bearcat defense gets tougher, but cleaner. Cincinnati ranked near the bottom of the conference in shot defense (2FGAs especially), forcing turnovers and allowing opponents to get to the line. Points will come (one way or the other), but Bearcats have to stop their opponents.


Implode If...
If Stephenson does not play a minute in the Queen City this season, Cincinnati would still post a better record. The squad is experienced with several solid contributors ready to take the next step. With Stephenson the Bearcats can take a big jump...or a big fall. The question is how quickly (and how well) Coach Cronin can get this squad to play together. And play the game his way.

Crucial Runs
In the 3rd week of November the Bearcats will head to Hawaii, to play in the EA Maui Invitational, which will most likely provide them with their toughest tests in the OOC portion of the schedule. Cincinnati drew the Commodores of Vanderbilt in the 1st round, to be followed by either Maryland or host Chaminade. The Commordores, out of the SEC, return most of their minutes from 2009, including those posted by big man AJ Ogilvy, an Aussie who measures 6-10 and weighs in at 260 pounds. Vandy is projected by ESPN's Fran Fraschilla to finish 3rd in the SEC East and will surely be no worse than a bubble team. ESPN identified this matchup as one of the "10 Nonconference Games We Can't Wait To See" for good reason. Depending on the outcome the Bearcats will face Maryland, projected to be an upper tier team in the ACC this season (and Villanova's matchup in the BB&T Classic in December) or DII host Chaminade. 'Nati's 3rd round opponent will come from the pool of Arizona, Colorado, Gonzaga or Wisconsin. The likeliest candidates 'Zona or the Zags. Three solid games would be very encouraging. A 2-1 or better record against the field will bring some good press for the team. The Bearcat's cross-town game with the X-men will be one of those bellweather games in the OOC. Xavier, having lost Coach Sean Miller to Arizona in the off season, will most likely take a step back in 2010, providing Cincinnati with a good chance to beat a higher (lately) profile opponent. The Bearcats will also face traditional rival Miami of Ohio out of the MAC and the Red Hawks' conference mate, Toledo. Other tests include a road game with UAB out of Conference USA. While the Blazers, 22-12 in 2009, returns a fraction of minutes (and even less of the scoring) of that 22-10 team, they still hold the home court advantage. This one may have less to do with beating a fellow bubble team (and choking off the competition) as it does with winning in a hostile environment. How the team handles this test should, along with Maui and the local rivalries, give the Bearcat Nation some indication of how the squad will fare when the curtain rises in the Big East.

The 2+ week (12/30 - 1/16) stretch that opens the Big East regular season will be a good opportunity for the Bearcats to make a statement. They host Connecticut and Notre Dame as bookends to a run that includes road trips to Rutgers, Seton Hall and St. John's interspersed among home games with Pittsburgh and California State at Bakersfield. 7-0 would garner notice around the conference and in the national media, but at minimum if Cincinnati is to fulfill expectations for an upper division conference finish they will have to beat inferior squads (Rutgers, Cal State), even as they exploit the home court advantage against similarly regarded opponents (Pitt and Notre Dame). The east coast road swing through Seton Hall and St. John's should yield some insight on the pecking order for those three teams. Each program's fan-base has expectations for their squad, and should the Bearcats go 2-0 or even 1-1 (with competitive games) in that swing, their fans would have have to feel optimistic about the rest of the season. Cincinnati fans would have to feel good should their team go 5-2 through that stretch (4-2 in conference). The end of the Big East regular season also holds a tough run as the Bearcats journey to Morgantown to face West Virginia, return to Fifth Third to host the Wildcats, then hit DC for season closer with Georgetown. Cincinnati collapsed at the end of the 2009 season, dropping the last 4 games of the regular season, then tacking 1 last loss (BET) to the end of that dreadful run. If Cincinnati is on the bubble, that 3 game run could be a dream-killer.

Cincinnati Post Game -- Getting It

Not ready to letdown after the win against #3 Pittsburgh on Wednesday, the Wildcats hosted the Cincinnati Bearcats at the Pavilion, their on campus arena. The Wildcats showed no hospitality as they dumped Cincinnati 71-50 with another stunning second half performance. Mike Sheridan's always-well written post game notes tallies the Pavilion home game winning streak at 25 games. The Official website) also offers an AP wire story and the official box score.

The breakdown by halves...

Opponent	Cincinnati
	1st	2nd	Game
Pace	31.3	32.5	63.8
	Offense				Defense
	1st	2nd	Game		1st	2nd	Game
Rating	95.8	126.1	111.3		92.7	64.6	78.4
eFG%	45.5	59.3	53.1		51.9	22.7	35.6
TORate	28.8	18.5	23.5		28.8	27.7	28.2
OR%	41.7	46.2	44.0		37.5	46.4	43.2
FTA/FGA	59.1	40.7	49.0		11.5	24.2	18.6
FTM/FGA	45.5	33.3	38.8		7.7	18.2	13.6
ARate	30.0	46.7	40.0		72.7	50.0	64.7
Blk%	4.5	7.4	6.1		3.8	18.2	11.9
Stl%	12.4	3.1	7.8		9.9	9.1	9.5
PPWS	1.06	1.27	1.18		1.06	0.57	0.78

Half Time Adjustments...
...the 'Cats led by a point going into the locker room. The first half offense was a bit shaky as each team logged an ORtg < 100.0 which suggested this could well shape up as a defensive struggle. The Wildcats were lower than their "rating expectations" (92.7 vs 89.3), but not significantly off track; they needed to . Their offensive rating however, was terribly off of their season-long rating (95.8 vs 110.7). What is not obvious in the splits above (though hinted at given their eFG% of 45.5) is that the Wildcats were blanked from beyond the arc. And they took nearly 30% of their FGAs from that distance. From 2 point range Nova was shooting a very impressive 62.5%. The Bearcats were concentrating their efforts in shutting down the Wildcat's long range shooting and leaving the mid-range jumpers (i.e. Dante Cunningham) free to shoot away. Note that Villanova converted with passable efficiency (eFG% -- 45.5; the 3FGA shutout noted), but had an atrocious turnover rate (TORate) of 28.8, neutralized in part by the Bearcat's own turnover rate of 28.8. Both teams conceded defensive rebounding. Nova had pinched Cincinnati's principal scorers, Deonta Vaughn & Yancy Gates, by limiting their FGAs and "holding" them to 50% shooting (combined 5-10), taking only 38.5% of Nati's FGAs. The secondary scorers, Dion Dixon, Steven Toyloy, Alvin Mitchell and Larry Davis were forced to take 53.8% of Cincinnati's FGAs, hitting 6 (4 of which were 3s...that kept them in the game).

Villanova has made a habit of second half transformations over the past 3 - 4 games. The Bearcats were the latest victim of the trend. The 'Cats went with what worked in the first half -- inside shooting and lots of it. They tabled 3FGAs, taking only 6 of their 27 FGAs from the 3 point line (21.4%, well below their 30+% season average). In sharp contrast to Deonta Vaughn's 0-10 exercise in shot futility, motivated apparently by the need to fill the Cincinnati scoring void (despite his problems in the first half), Nova's Scottie Reynolds dialed it back and let the second wave (plus a proficient Dante Cunningham) take their licks. The Wildcats, in the form of the two Coreys, Dwayne Anderson and Shane Clark, did not disappoint. Those four shot a combined 9-16 (only 2 3FGMs). Those 16 FGAs were 59.2% of the total FGAs taken.

Ref Notes
Jeff Clark, Tony Greene and Mike Stuart ran the game. Nova fans should be familiar with Clark and Stuart, as this was their third game this season (the 'Cats are 3-0 in games where those two have officiated). This was Tony Greene's first Wildcat game this season, though he has officiated games in prior years. While the whistles and FTAs were very close to average, the Bearcats got to the line only 11 times, far below the average (and outside, low, of the range of the standard deviation). The difference (5 FTAs) were not significant to the outcome of the game however.

Preview -- Cincinnati

Villanova hosts Cincinnati at the Pavilion for the second time since Cincinnati joined the Big East. The teams first met (in Cincinnati) in 1947, Villanova the 70-68. Villanova holds a 3-1 edge in the series...

Common Opponents, Good Wins, Bad Losses...
The 'Cats and Bearcats faced three common opponents so far. All three, St. John's, Louisville and South Florida, are conference mates:

	Nova		Nati
Opponent	W/L	Diff.	W/L	Diff.
St. John's	W (H)	+19	W (A)	+11
Marquette	L (A)	-7	L (A)	-34
Connecticut	L (A)	-6	L (H)	-9

Cincinnati (Big East, 13-7, 4-4, RPI #59) has 4 wins against Top 100 competition. Their best win was their last game, a home win against Georgetown (Big East, 12-7, 3-5, RPI #19), but other notable wins include home wins over UAB (CUSA, 13-8, RPI #46) & Mississippi St. (SEC, 13-6, RPI #88), and a road win against UNLV (MWC, 16-4, RPI #45). While Cincinnat has not been tagged with a "bad loss", they did drop both ends of their home-n-away with Providence (14-6, 6-2, RPI #61). I am not sure how that will affect standings in case of a tie breaker, but note that Villanova too has a home-n-away with Providence this season...

Lineups, Rotations...
...Like virtually every Big East team this season, Head Coach Mick Cronan has had to shuffle his rotation in the face of injuries. For the Bearcats the loss of well regarded freshman point guard Cashmire Wright just before the start of the season meant he had to shift junior Deonta Vaughn (6-1, 195lbs) back to the point. Vaughn had moved over to the #2 when Jamal Warren stepped in to pick up the ball handling tasks last season. The combination worked well and Cronan had hoped to continue the system with Wright. Instead Vaughn handles the ball while Cronan gives either sophomore Larry Davis (6-3, 180lbs) or freshman Dion Dixon (6-3, 180lbs) the nod at the #2. Davis has started over Dixon in the Big East games (so far), but Dixon gets his minutes, lately ranging upwards of 30 minutes. Vaughn is the 1st option on offense. He will take 1 in 4 of the Bearcat's shots when he is on the court (and he is on > 80% of the time). Dixon and Davis have both posted multiple double digit outings, though Dixon appears to have the hot hand of late. While both are classified on Ken Pomeroy's Team Page as role players, they are efficient (but not extremely efficient) scorers. They are about equally likely to take a 3FGA, Davis is a touch more accurate.

Coach Cronan will start red shirt senior transfer Mike Williams (6-7, 240lbs) and sophomore Rashad Bishop (6-6, 220lbs) in the frontcourt. Coach Cronan has tinkered with the last starting spot. For the past four games he has started junior JUCO Steven Toyloy (6-8, 255lbs) at the #5, but he has also started freshman Yancy Gates (6-9, 225lbs) in that spot. No matter which starts, the other will get between 15 & 25 minutes. Cronan seems to favor a rotation of 9 to 10 players (usually 9), and those last two spots have conisently gone to two sophomores, Alvin Mitchell (6-5, 215lbs) and Darnell Wilkes (6-7, 195lbs). Any more time to divvy up, and Wildcat fans may see senior guard Brandon Miller (6-4, 195lbs). But that would most likely mean either team is in bad, bad trouble.

Dante Cunningham, Antonio Pena, Dwayne Anderson and Scottie Reynolds will start for the Wildcats. The last spot will likely go to junior Reggie Redding, the 5th starter for the South Florida & Pittsburgh games. Redding led the team in points scored versus Pitt (18) while posting a 1.67 PPWS with an eFG% of 66.7, hitting 4 of 6 FGAs & a perfect 10-10 from the line. The 'Cats will need that type of accuracy from the line as Nati is reputed to be a physical team. The two Coreys (Fisher or Stokes), along with senior Shane Clark, his wrist still secured in a flexible cast, will definitely see time as well. Cunningham & Pena avoided foul trouble against Pittsburgh, despite the Panthers physical style of play. This game promises to be physical as well, so the staff may again call on senior reserve Frank Tchuisi to put in some time. Clark and Redding led the team in rebounds against the bigger Panther squad.

By the Numbers, Offense & Defense...
Nati plays for about 65.6 possessions, ranking it just abit below average (67.1) for D1 teams. Their (adjusted) offensive/defensive rating, 106.3/94.1 (per Ken Pomeroy's Team Page, ranks them well above average among the D1 teams. Their defense (ranked #63) is a bit ahead of their offense (ranked #92). They are good, but the 'Cats are a better at both ends of the floor. A look at the "numbers underneath" give us an idea of what Cincinnati does well (and why they are ranked where they are).

When Cincinnati has the ball...
				FTA
	eFG%	TO%	OR%	FGA
Bearcat O	48.4	21.4	42.4	31.0
Wildcat D	44.9	22.1	29.6	37.6

The Bearcats are a bit below average at converting FGAs efficiently (eFG% is ranked #188), they are mediocre at protecting the ball (TO% is ranked #216) and not especially strong at getting to the line (FTA/FGA is ranked #280), but they are among the D1 elites at rebounding under their basket (OR% is ranked #4). And that skill masks their conversion rate by providing a host of 2nd (and 3rd?) opportunities for scoring. Given that Nova is not too shabby at defensive rebounding (OR% is 29.6, ranked #50), expect another battle under the (Bearcat's) basket. Cincinnati takes about 31% of their FGAs as 3s, a bit higher than the average D1 squad. They are not adept, however, at hitting either their 2s or their 3s, converting about 47.5% of their 2FGAs, and about 1 in 3 of their 3FGAs. That is where their rebounding helps them. Turnovers should be interesting. Nova has not pressed much lately, but the Bearcats, given that Vaughn has a somewhat mediocre TO% of 22.7 (significant because he handles about 1 in 4 possessions) and of Nati's two backcourt alternatives only Dixon is clearly better. From the rotation, only Gates (at 13.8 he is ranked among the Top 250), Dixon (16.3) and Williams (19.1) lose fewer than 1 in 5 of their possessions. The Wildcats have forced turnovers a bit better than the average D1 defense (ranked #104), suggesting they may have some success against Cincinnati. The only The "Four Factors" look at Villanova's offense versus Cincinnati's defense:

When Villanova has the ball...
				FTA
	eFG%	TO%	OR%	FGA
Wildcat O	50.6	18.4	35.7	42.9
Bearcat D	46.3	20.6	33.5	32.5

The Wildcats will look for their points inside the arc, which the Bearcats have proven a littly better at defending than beyond the arc. The Wildcat's proficiency at getting their own misses has declined steadily over the course of their Big East play. The Bearcats are an "average" team at defensive rebounding. The 'Cats rely on points from the line for about 1 in 4 of their total, while the Bearcats are used to yeilding only 1 in 5 of their opponent's points from the charity stripe...

Want to Beat the Bearcats? Then...
Shooting emerges as a critical factor for both squads. But the Bearcats appear to be sensitive to turnovers as well. Villanova secondary factors appears to include effectively limiting opponent's second chance points
1. Defend their shooting -- When the Bearcats shoot to an eFG% of 44.9 (Nova's defensive eFG%) they are 1-5. When they shoot to less than 50.0% they are 5-6.
2. Hit your shots -- Nova's record when they have converted at 44.0 or better is 15-2. When the Bearcat's opponents convert at 50.6 or better (Nova's eFG%), they are 2-3.
3. Force turnovers -- When their turnover rate is 22.1 or worse, the Bearcats were 6-5. When they lost more than a quarter of their possessions they were 1-3.
4. Value the ball -- When the Bearcat's opponents' TO% was 18.1 or less, the Bearcats were 5-4. When the 'Cats had a TO% of 20.6 or lower they were 10-2.
5. Limit 2nd Chance Opportunities -- When the Bearcats were limited to less than their average (42.4), they went 6-7.

Finally...
...Unlike Villanova, Cincinnati is very deep on size and front court players, but a bit thin in the back court. Their play, it follows, is physical and controlling, but with Vaughn, Davis and Dixon to shoot 3s, this should be more than just a low post wrestling match. Pena and Cunningham will need to stay on the court for the Wildcats to have all elements of their offense and defense available.

According to calculations, this game should go for about 65 possessions, with Villanova on top by 11 points. The margin and confidence level (85%) suggests this is a game the 'Cats are expected to win. The similar records (Nova is 4-3 and Nati is 4-4), suggest Villanova needs a win to push Cincinnati away, and lend credibility to their win over Pitt.

All Big East Preseason -- Fall Report Card

The Big East named a preseason All-Big East Team at the conference's Media Day back in October. I was curious to see how these 11 (big conference, big all-star team...) players were doing through the end of their OOC schedules. The data was drawn from ESPN's team stats during Christmas week...

								FTA	FTM
Player	Coll	Pos	Clss	Min%	Shot%	eFG%	PPWS	FGA	FGA
Flynn	Cuse	G	So.	86.1	22.3	58.0	1.25	65.9	48.6
McAlarney	NDU	G	Sr.	85.9	21.8	63.9	1.32	10.2	10.2
Vaughn	Nati	G	Jr.	82.1	21.3	48.7	1.07	29.5	24.2
Williams	Ville	F	Sr.	80.0	19.0	46.7	0.97	36.2	20.0
Reynolds	Nova	G	Jr.	79.4	20.6	48.1	1.11	46.9	39.2
McNeal	Marq	G	Sr.	78.1	31.5	55.5	1.17	23.8	18.9
Young	Pitt	F	Jr.	73.8	35.6	55.8	1.16	32.8	22.2
Thabeet	UConn	C	Jr.	72.4	25.7	67.4	1.37	81.4	54.7
Summers	GTU	F	Jr.	67.7	28.2	65.2	1.36	59.8	43.9
Price	UConn	G	Sr.	64.3	16.5	48.9	1.00	23.3	13.3
Harangody	NDU	F	Jr.	63.9	35.3	51.7	1.13	43.6	33.6

Data has been sorted by Min% (percentage of playing time at a position taken by the player), as an indication of how heavily the team relies on the individual's contribution. Note that Luke Harangody has been slowed by pneumonia in December, missed two games at the beginning of the month, and has played reduced minutes through the end of the month. Harangody logged 87.5% of the minutes at his position in Wednesday night's game versus DePaul.

Right on Schedule...
Jonny Flynn, Kyle McAlarney continue to be very efficient through the OOC. Not surprising though neither is the primary offensive option for their respective teams (Syracuse and Notre Dame). Flynn runs the point for the Orange and has brought them to a 13-1 record through their 1st Big East game (a win over Seton Hall). Flynn's assist rate (as of 1/2/09) is 27.9, good for a Top 200 ranking. McAlarney shoots 3s, prolifically and proficiently. Wednesday versus DePaul McAlarney was 4-11 (3-9 from beyond the arc & 2-2 from the free throw line), good for a PPWS of 1.09 (below his average) and an eFG% of 50.0.

The Early POY Field...
If Harangody plays to last season's numbers (and from all appearances, pneumonia aside, it looks as if he will), beating him for POY will require an extraordinary set of numbers (and a lot of publicity) from a group of players who are seen as his peers. An early field would have to include Marquette's Jerel McNeal, Pittsburgh's Sam Young, Connecticut's Hasheem Thabeet and Georgetown's DaJuan Summers. All, like Harangody, provide a POY profile -- his team's 1st/2nd option on offense (Shot% >25.0), efficient scoring (eFG% > 50.0; PPWS >1.10, etc.) and a number of Top 500-level performance in one or more primary (Min%, Poss%, Shot%, eFG%, ORtg) or secondary (OR%, DR%, FTRate, ARate, TORate, Blks%, Stl%) categories per Ken Pomeroy's team Scouting Reports (each player links to his team's current scouting report).

Player	Top 10	Top 50	Top 100	Top 250	Top 400	Top 500
Jerel McNeal	NA	NA	NA	1/1	3/1	1/0
Sam Young	NA	1/0	1/0	1/0	1/2	NA
Hasheem Thabeet	0/1	1/2	1/1	NA	NA	0/1
DaJuan Summers	NA	1/0	NA	0/2	NA	1/0
Luke Harangody	0/1	0/1	1/0	1/1	0/2	NA

Note the breakdown above lists primary/secondary within the ranking category. Thabeet's credentials may have tarnished a bit from his matchup with Georgetown's freshman Greg Monroe, (4 points, 7 rebounds and 7 blocks in 37 minutes versus 16 points, 3 rebounds, 4 assists and 3 steals in 27 minutes). Jerel McNeal on the other hand faces a challenged from teammate Wes Matthews for Marquette's team POY. Two of Marquette's talented guard trio (Dom James, McNeal and Matthews) has already had his time in the spotlight. This season may well be Matthew's turn.

Struggling Right Now...
Terrence Williams' role in the offense has diminished from last season. His efficiencies, never especially dazzling, are well off of last year's as well. The Cardinal team has struggled with the graduation of red shirt (and transfer...) David Padgett and Williams, variously described as a big guard and point forward, has always been plagued with a less than stellar proficiency beyond the arc, is struggling with even worse numbers this season. Connecticut's AJ Price, taken down with a torn ACL in the first game of the NCAAs last season, has yet to hit his stride.

Big East 2007-08 -- Inside/Outside

Can the inside/outside formula be effective for identifying a team's playing style and offense? And which is more effective at expressing that style? I applied both Pomeroy's & Pelton's variations to the teams of the Big East conference...

					Rating		Rank
Team	Min	FGA	3FGA	FTA	KPom	KPelt	KPom	KPelt
Connecticut	6650	1880	465	905	23.40	6.62	1	1
Syracuse	7025	2071	558	870	15.07	4.44	2	2
South Florida	6225	1705	504	734	13.49	3.69	3	3
St. John's	6025	1625	472	569	5.97	1.61	4	4
Marquette	7050	2082	697	794	4.66	1.38	5	5
Pittsburgh	7450	2185	671	768	4.44	1.30	6	6
Villanova	7000	2013	703	783	3.97	1.14	7	7
Rutgers	6250	1721	538	597	3.43	0.94	8	8
Seton Hall	6525	2006	677	736	2.94	0.90	9	9
West Virginia	7500	2169	743	782	1.80	0.52	10	10
Notre Dame	6625	2015	677	687	0.50	0.15	11	11
Louisville	7225	2011	778	734	-2.19	-0.61	12	12
Providence	6275	1802	631	582	-2.72	-0.78	13	13
Cincinnati	6450	1783	635	585	-2.80	-0.78	14	13
DePaul	6025	1827	645	562	-4.54	-1.38	15	15
Georgetown	6850	1744	701	593	-6.19	-1.58	16	16

The formulas produce identical rankings, though the actual values vary in magnitude. Hardly surprising. The rankings look "about right" -- that is, Connecticut, a team with a reputation for inside play produces the highest "inside" value, and it clearly relies more on inside play (and does it rather better than the other "inside-oriented" Big East teams) than other Big East teams. And that consistent with most analysis of Connecticut's style of play. And Georgetown as the "most outside" team in the conference (but not too outside) also seems consistent with the consensus of Georgetown's play and style.

I was surprised less by where Villanova came in from the calculations. I believe, from tracking the Wildcat's front court players over the past 4 seasons, that the staff has made more of an effort to get the ball to players in the paint for "better" scoring opportunities. I will post the results for the seasons 2004-05 through 2007-08 shortly.

Surprise, surprise...
If pressed I would have identified Notre Dame, or possibly Seton Hall as the "next most" outside team(s) in the Big East. Neither was anywhere near Georgetown. The Fighting Irish were "nearly neutral", if one where to assume that a rating of 0.0 suggests the team favors neither inside nor outside play. That outside shooting does not predominate in the Irish attack is a tribute to the roles played by Luke Harangody and Rob Kurz. Looking at 2008-09, will Zach Hillesland and/or Ryan Ayers provide the strong inside play characterized by Kurz? As for Seton Hall, mad bombers perhaps by reputation, Jamar Nutter and Jeremy Hazell did not dominate over Harvey, Gauss, Laing and Garcia. I knew that Syracuse's outside game would take a hit when Andy Rautins tore his ACL in August of 2007, followed by Devo's injury only two weeks into the season, but the computed score provides yet more proof that the Orange offense was too one dimensional for Big East play.

Notes & Observations...
1. Kentrell Gransberry has graduated and most likely taken most of South Florida's inside game with him. The Bull's Dominique Jones, Chris Howard and Jesus Verdejo return, but they are all back court/wing players. Gus Gilchrist's waiver application may be the most significant predictor for success this coming season.
2. Cincinnati's score was more puzzling than surprising. The Bearcats had, with a contingent of John Williamson, Adam Hrycanuik, Anthony McClain and Kenny Belton, an undeniable inside presence last season. So how did they end up with a -2.8 (Pomeroy) rating? Scoring guard Deonta Vaughn, who took (according to Ken Pomeroy's Cincinnati Scouting Report) nearly 28% of the team's shots when he was on the court, had an FTARate of about 31%, suggesting he did not get to the line "enough".
3. Optimism about Louisville's prospects may be well founded. The Cardinals rated at -2.19 (Pomeroy) last season lost only inside players -- David Padgett, Telo Palacios and Derrick Caracter. With a rookie front court next season, that outside tendency may become even more pronounced this season.
4. Those who remember the influence of Troutman, Taft, Aaron Gray and Levon Kendall may believe 4.44 (Pomeroy) may understate Pittsburgh's inside game. They forget that Jaime Dixon has very deliberately brought outside shooters like Keith Benjamin, Ron Ramon and Antonio Graves into the program and gave them the opportunity to shoot the ball.