Guest Contributor Ray Floriani: Quarterfinals at the A10

by Ray Floriani

ATLANTIC CITY, NJ- Go with the favorites , The Atlantic Ten quarterfinals at Boardwalk Hall in Atlantic City saw three of the higher seeds move on to the semis. Fifth seed Rhode Island provided the only upset, a mild one, in the day/night action.

Quarterfinal Scores
Team	Score		Team	Score
Temple	69		St.Bonaventure	51
Rhode Island	63		St.Louis	47
Xavier	78		Dayton	73
Richmond	77		UMass	72

The game of the day was the 6:30 matchup between Dayton and Xavier. Two rivals in the conference post season tournament with Dayton fighting for it’s NCAA hopes, gave the potential for an intense ballgame. The pre-game buildup did not disappoint.

In a 75 possession game, the four factors:

			FTM
	ORtg	eFG%	FGA	OR%	TO%
Dayton	97	52	32	26	24
Xavier	104	45	66	41	24

Right from the tap this was a virtually frantic pace. Transition, three pointers, attacking the basket, physical play were the norm. Not a whole lot of half court sets , especially in the opening half. Dayton had a fifteen point lead with just under 12 minute to play. The Flyers could not hold off late charging Xavier , especially Terrell Holloway (22 points) and Jordan Crawford (20 points).

Offensive rebounding percentage told a significant story. In planning for this quarterfinal, Xavier coach Chris Mack emphasized rebounding as the priority. The Musketeers got the job done in resounding fashion.

The disparity in free throw rate can be attributed in part to Dayton’s late game fouling when they trailed and needed to get the ball back. A closer look can attribute part of that FT Rate advantage to the job Xavier did on the offensive glass. Second shots very often give better scoring opportunities and make the defense more susceptible to fouling. For the game Xavier shot better than Dayton from two point range. Xavier was 18 of 35 (51%) to Dayton’s 16 of 34 (47%). Again, offensive rebounding was a contributing factor.

Xavier's tempo-free grad assistants

Notes on the other contests. Richmond-UMass was a 71 possession game more to UMass’ liking. Richmond prevailed because they knocked down 11 treys (11-20) for a nice, 52% eFG percentage.

St. Louis had their 54 possession tempo, but Rhode Island did a great job on the defensive end. They forced the normally careful Billikens into a 24% Turnover rate and also enjoyed a marked 47-25 Offensive Rebounding percentage advantage.

Temple established a 56 possession tempo an was impressive in both phases of their offense. The Owls offensive efficiency was 127, the highest of any team in the quarterfinals, as Fran Dunphy’s club knocked down six treys and shot 60% (24 of 40) inside the arc.

Xavier is tempo free. Our press row seat behind the bench gave great close up insight. For the Dayton-Xavier game we were behind the Xavier bench. After each time out an assistant asked a quick question , of two young men seated behind us keeping charts, such as ‘how many post touches the last four minutes?’ Near the end of one time out I asked the two men if they were coaches. Turns out they are grad assistants and the one said, “we are breaking down offensive efficiency.” Naturally yours truly said it was thrilling to hear that. The legions of tempo free followers is growing.

“(Jordan) Crawford and (Terrell) Holloway made the plays we needed in the stretch.” - Xavier coach Chris Mack

“For 32 or so minutes we played pretty darn good. When we needed the key stops we didn’t get them.” - Dayton coach Brian Gregory.

Officials (Joe DeMayo center) confer
with coaches Brian Gregory of Dayton (L) and Xavier's Chris Mack (R) over a ruling

Providence Post Game -- Pace

A trip to Friartown and a game at the Dunkin Donuts Center has always been an honest barometer for the Wildcats. If they can play the Friars there without losing focus, not to mention the game, I have taken as a good sign. The team is making progress. The 'Cats won last night, 94-91 in one of those games that had a strange rhythm throughout. In an earlier season (2002 perhaps?) the 'Cats would have lost that game. In an earlier game this season, the Wildcats did struggle at the line late, not quite able to put an opponent away. Not last night. Faced with that sense of inevitability one feels when an opponent heaves a prayer from 3 feet this side of the midcourt line that hits nothing but net, and then follows with a rebound that pops out of your best rebounder's hands with a half dribble out the arc, barely square to the basket with another heave that falls, the 'Cats exhaled, and then hit the free throws they had to. The official website has the usual AP wire story & the official box score. The breakdown by halves...

Opponent	Providence
	1st	2nd	Game
Pace	41.2	42.8	84.0
	Offense				Defense
	1st	2nd	Game		1st	2nd	Game
Rating	118.9	105.2	112.0		82.5	133.3	108.4
eFG%	60.0	40.9	50.7		44.8	56.3	51.4
TORate	21.8	23.4	22.6		29.1	14.0	21.4
OR%	40.0	54.5	47.6		30.0	38.5	34.8
FTA/FGA	31.4	66.7	48.5		44.8	42.5	43.5
FTM/FGA	20.0	54.5	36.8		27.6	30.0	29.0
ARate	35.3	38.5	36.7		50.0	47.1	48.1
Blk%	2.9	6.1	4.4		0.0	2.5	1.4
Stl%	9.7	16.9	13.3		19.4	2.3	10.6
PPWS	1.22	1.04	1.12		0.97	1.19	1.09

Half Time Adjustments...
The first half went according to script. As the table above suggests, Nova's offensive efficiency was 118.5, above their adjusted efficiency (111.5), even as their defensive efficiency, 82.5, bettered their season adjusted efficiency (87.3). The first half was a series of three runs, two by the 'Cats that served as bookends to a run by the Friars. Scottie Reynolds fueled the first spurt, a 12-2 run that put the 'Cats up by 10. The Friars stormed back with an 18-8 run that knotted the game at 20 somewhere around the 8:37 mark. The 'Cats responded with one last 29-14 run to take a 15 point (49-34) lead into the locker room. That last run was sparked by consecutive 3 point conversions by spark plug Dwayne Anderson, who stroked a third 3 later in the run. Unlike the first run, 4 players contributed points in ways that highlighted the squad's offensive potential. The first half pace, 41.2, was unusually high, possibly the highest number of possessions in a half this season. VMI and North Carolina play at that pace.

While the 'Cats were able to push the scoring differential out to 19/20 twice during the 2nd half (at the 14:00 mark and later at the 11:00 mark), the Friar's guard corp, Jeff Xavier, Weyinmi Efejuku, Marshon Brooks, Brian McKenzie and Sharaud Curry unleashed a barrage of 3 point attempts (24!), an uncomfortably large number of which (11) found the net. The preview posted earlier this week noted that shooting efficiency (eFG%) and offensive rebounding rates (OR%) might serve as keys to a win (or loss). The red & green highlighted sections in the table (above) monitor how well Villanova performed in those categories, relative to season-long numbers. The sea of red that covers virtually every defensive category in the 2nd half bears testament to Nova's need for improvement, particularly 3 point defense and forcing turnovers. Coming into the game Providence was the #58 ranked team for offensive efficiency (per Ken Pomeroy's Stats Page) with a rating of 108.4 (raw) and 109.3 (adjusted). The Friars played offense to their efficiency, largely by converting 3FGMs and a great 2nd half effort on the boards. 133.3 is not the Wildcat's worst half of defense this season by the way -- that honor goes to the 1st half of the UConn game (not obvious because the 'Cats also posted one of their best offensive halves, making the effort a wash).

Notes
1. Scottie Reynolds broke out of his offensive slump, posting an eFG% of 50.0 and a PPWS of 1.23, while scoring 31 points in 35 minutes of play. Scottie lived at the line in the 2nd half, hitting 10 of 11 FTAs to seal the win. Putting the ball in his hands for the Wildcat's last possessions has become the strategy in games of 3 or less possessions. He forces a Hobbsian on Nova's opponents -- foul him and virtually concede the 2 points, or guard him closely as the clock winds down and make him force the play. Largely unrecognized was Scottie's contribution on the offensive boards, where he grabbed a very impressive 10.2% of the OBoards when he was on the court.
2. Dwayne Anderson recorded his first double-double of the season as he scored a season high 19 points to go with his 10 (3-7-10) rebounds. Dwayne uncharacteristically took 4 of his 11 FGAs as 3s, going 3-3 on 3s in the first half. Anderson came to Villanova with the reputation as a 3 point shooter, but had dialed that back last season to concentrate on rebounding and defense (and scoring inside the arc).
3. Dante Cunningham logged his 7th double-double of the season, going 5-5 from the field on his way to a 12 point, 11 (4-7-11) rebound night. Dante's efficiencies, eFG% (100.0) and PPWS (1.63 -- his 2nd highest of the season) are again very impressive. Cunningham took only 8.7% of the team's FGAs when he was on the floor (85% of the game). I am not sure why his teammates did not look for him more, though the 'Cats unusually low assist rate (36.7 for the game), coupled with a very high turnover rate (23.4 in the 2nd half), suggest the Friar made denying an entry pass to the low post a priority. Dante was whistled for 4 fouls, breaking his streak of 4 consecutive halves without a foul.
4. Corey Fisher is becoming an impact player for the 'Cats. Corey F logged only 16 minutes before fouling out, but took 36.8% of the team's FGAs during that period, scoring 12 points on 5-10 (1-4, 4-6, 1-1) shooting. Fisher was both prolific and efficient, posting an eFG% of 55.0 & a PPWS of 1.15. This was the second (of nine) Big East games that Corey F has fouled out of, the third in which he has been whistled for 4 or more fouls.
5. Reggie Redding posted his 2nd double-double of the season, on a quiet 12 points, complements of 6-11 (0-3, 6-8, 0-0) shooting and 11 (4-7-11) rebounds.
6. The offense, based on Shot%, appears to have gone through Fisher, Reynolds and Stokes. Reynolds and Fisher had relatively efficient nights, and were backed by a 2nd wave of scorers -- Dwayne Anderson and Reggie Redding.

Ref Notes
The crew was manned by veterans Tim Higgins, Ed Hightower and Paul Janssen. This was Hightower and Janssen's first Wildcat game this season. The game was physical, with a total of 50 fouls (24 against Nova, 26 against Providence) called. The number called against the Friars was more than the average called on Nova's away opponents and the 'Cats did get to the line more (above the standard deviation) than usual for an away game. The number of points scored at the line was, however, consistent with the proportion of points free throw shooting typically contributes to Nova's point total.

Other recaps/analysis
IBBW has posted 2 recap/reaction pieces and a highlight clip. (Good work Chris).
VUhoops.com posted a recap.

Friar for a Day

A friend who is a Providence alum was kind enough to invite me along to see the Friars-Johnnies game today. This was not a jump into the Garden, but rather a trek out to the Louie Carnesecca Arena on the Queens campus (an "old style" wooden bleecher gym-type facility that seats about 6,500). After trailing by 5 to finish the first half the Friars put on a furious rally to go up by 7 with about 6 minutes to go. Unfortunately they could not maintain the momentum, and dropped a heart breaking 64-62 decision. Jeff Xavier hit about 5 3's while Geoff McDermott and Randall Hanke handled the Johnnies inside.

After the game I commiserated with the Friar faithful at a reception nearby. Though dealing with the disappointment of the recent loss they showed this Wildcat a very good time, wit and humor matched by consideration and hospitality in a way that reminded me of the family atmosphere at Villanova.

Thank you and best of luck the rest of the way...except for March 8.