The Big East's 2012 Mirrors

Pairing Up for 2012
Looks like the Big East schedule maker earned his (her?) pay, as the pairs for 2012 do indeed reflect changes based on the 2011 conference results and the coaches poll taken in May. The 2012 release was actually a bit later in the off season than the 2011 schedule. Though I have been writing about other events over the last 2+ weeks, I developed a profile of each team's home, away and mirror opponents, looking for a moment to review the results and post an analysis. Mirror games constitute 33% of each team's 18 game schedule. These pairings can provide a team with a an advantage (or disadvantage) in conference standing. And a make or break should a team find itself on the bubble...

		BET	Mirror
	PWP	Seed	Opponents
Connecticut	0.611	6.0	NDU, SHU, Cuse
West Virginia	0.610	5.3	NDU, Pitt, RU
Rutgers	0.575	7.0	NDU, SHU,WVU
Cincinnati	0.563	8.7	MU, St. John's, Nova
DePaul	0.555	6.7	Ville, St. John's, SHU
Louisville	0.551	7.0	DPU, Pitt, Cuse
Marquette	0.549	8.0	Nati, GTown, Nova
South Florida	0.543	8.3	Pitt, PC, Nova
Pittsburgh	0.504	8.3	Ville, USF, WVU
Syracuse	0.487	8.7	UConn, Ville, PC
Notre Dame	0.485	9.7	UConn, RU, WVU
Villanova	0.476	10.7	Nati, MU, USF
Providence	0.468	9.0	GTown, USF, Cuse
Georgetown	0.467	10.0	MU, PC, St. Johns
St. John's	0.399	10.0	Nati, DPU, GTown
Seton Hall	0.307	12.7	UConn, DPU, RU
Average	0.509	8.5
Std Dev.	0.080	1.89

Note the table contains each team's mirrors. I averaged the Pythagorean Winning Percentage (PWP) and Big East Tournament seed for each team's mirror opponents.

Observations
When developing the schedule, the conference polls the coaches for their conference ranking, as usually a first step to organize the conference into tiers. ESPN and CBS will typically weigh in with ideas for televized games and the conference has a standing commitment (which varies from year-to-year) to maintain traditional rivalries. Coaches poll results are not made public until Basketball Media Day (usually the third week in October), though occasionally a coach may reveal parts of his ballot early. On paper the objective of the mirrors is balance (the mix of mirrors should produce a "middling opponent"), the potential for more TV eyeballs can leave that

While the conference schedule maker preserved a few of historic rivalries ("The Backyard Brawl" -- Pittsburgh and West Virginia, "The Battle of New Jersey" -- Rutgersand Seton Hall...), others have been put on hiatus...for next season anyway. Cincinnati's and Louisville's annual home-and-home dating back to their CUSA (and Metro Conference?) days is gone. And the Orange Nation and Hoya Faithful seem torn between apoplexy and mild indifference (not a strong opponent) that Georgetown and Syracuse will meet only once (in the Dome) in 2012. The single game drew (generally unfavorable) reactions from several mainstream media sources. Syracuse travels well, probably the best in the conference, encountered severe problems getting tickets, above the visiting team allotment, to the Verizon Center (Georgetown's home court) for last season's game as the Hoya Athletic Department made a concerted effort to sell out the arena to the Georgetown fanbase.

Connecticut seems to have drawn the short straw for mirros next season, appropriate given their National Championship (not to mention Big East Tournament title) in 2011. Given that Coach Calhoun can anticipate about 60.8% of his 2011 minutes back in 2012 (the conference average right now is 56%), perhaps it is justice. Or maybe not, as the Huskies will return only 53% of their scoring. Among the Huskies' mirrors Notre Dame brings back 49% of their minutes (ouch...), Seton Hall brings back 61% and Syracuse brings back nearly 71%. The Orange have to be favored for the regular season title next season; the Hall will return Herb Pope and Jordan Theordore. Despite Notre Dame's lack of experience next season, the Huskies hardly have a walk over in their mirror slate.

Seton Hall's favorable draw (from a PWP standpoint...) may go unexploited given the Pirates lost Jeremy Hazell, Jeff Robinson, Eniel Polynice (graduation/exhausted eligibility) and Jamel Jackson (transfer). They do bring back enough that should Patrik Auda make progress and the bigs recruited by Coach Willard develop, the Pirates could go 3-3 against that slate.

St. John's presents and interesting case study for next season. The Johnnies return <5% (not a typo) of the minutes from the 2011 squad that stormed back into the conference elites with a 12-6 conference record (good for a threeway tie for third place, though the Johnnies took the #5 seed in the BET). Advice to the Johnnies' mirrors (Cincinnati, DePaul and Georgetown) -- get them early (before they gel) or late (freshman fatigue).

If, as I suspect, the Cardinals, Panthers and (mostly) the Orange are the class of the conference, Louisville's Coach Rick Pitino may again be barking at the schedule maker. Louisville is slated to meet both Syracuse and Pittsburgh next season (that is four ready-for-TV matchups), while Syracuse and Pittsburgh will meet only once (at the Dome). The Orange do have to face Connecticut, while the Panthers drew traditional foe West Virginia, as their second mirror. The Mountaineers bring back all of 33.9% of their minutes for 2011, however. The Backyard Brawl may well turn out to be less competitive than previous seasons.

Expect DePaul to improve their record next season, but Coach Oliver Purnell's squad has struggled against the better competition offered in their mirror draw. The opponents they drew, on paper, look like one of the more competitive sets in the conference going into this season. The Blue Demons will better their 1-15 conference record from 2011, but do not be shocked/disappointed if they go 0-6/1-5 against Louisville, St. John's and Seton Hall. 2-4 would be very good; 3-3 a signal that DePaul is ready to compete in the conference.

Many in the Nova Nation looked at Villanova's slate as a step back from some of the elite draws the program has gotten in the past 4-5 seasons. This particular mixed bag of mirrors could easily put the Wildcat at 5-1 or 1-5. Those three posted a collective conference record of 19-35, but all three should be better by the start of the season. The Wildcats have had success (outside of the Big East Tournament...) against Marquette, butthat could change. Expect South Florida to post a better record than 2011. Cincinnati has played tough at home but faltered on the road.

Guest Contributor Ray Floriani: Longwood at Seton Hall

by Ray Floriani
NEWARK, NJ - Coming off an impressive win at UMass on Saturday, Seton Hall made it two straight with a 78-51 win over Longwood at the Prudential Center.

Outside the Rock
on a very chilly night

Pre-Game Shootaround:
Longwood, an independent, entered the game with a 3-7 record. Thy average a brisk 78 possessions per game with an efficiency margin, -7, what you would expect of a team with their record. On offense their efficiency is 104, on the opposite end the defensive efficiency is a problematic 111. Despite their fast pace their TO rate is only 19%.

Seton Hall, at 4-4 comes off an outstanding offensive effort, a 104-79 win on Saturday at UMASS. Their OE of 127 in that game was a season high. The Hall averages 71 possessions per game with a healthy +8 efficiency margin (100 on offense and 92 on defense). Kevin Willard's group has also valued the ball with an impressive 18% turnover rate.

Pace & Efficiency:

		Off.
	Poss.	Eff.
Longwood	73	70
Seton Hall	73	107

The Four Factors:

		FTA
	eFG%	FGA	OR%	TO%
Longwood	45	12	10	30
Seton Hall	46	20	36	12

Turnover rates were discussed pre-game and the Hall took excellent care of the ball offensively while forcing the Lancers into an uncharacteristically poor turnover-plagued evening. The Pirates took advantage of those Longwood mistakes, enjoying a 28-8 edge in points off turnovers.

Flagman during a time out

Observations:
Several are called but one was 'chosen' -- Running the break the player we want to see in possession of the ball is Jordan Theodore. He sees the floor, can orchestrate the pace of the break and has the ability to dish to the right cutter or finish if needed.

With Jeremy Hazell out coach Kevin Willard has asked Theodore to be more of a scoring point guard. The last two outings the 6-foot junior scored a career high 24 in the Arkansas loss then followed up with a 17 point 8 assists outing at UMASS. Coming into tonight's game Theodore's usage was 19% and he attempted 16% of the Pirate shots. All while averaging 12.4 points per game, the leader among the active squad (Hazell's 24.0 average still paces the club).

Herb Pope, 4 points in 14 minutes -- tried to get more involved offensively. He had a few nice moves wind up with shots rimming and falling out. Conditioning is still an issue as Pope tries to 'get his legs' and become more a factor in the offense.

Defense -- Longwood had a few easy looks the first half. Antwan Carter, the Lancers' 6-6 center, was played from behind in the post and had a lot of opportunities on the blocks. Carter finished with a team leading fifteen points but teammate contributions were few and far between.

Turnovers Feed Fast Breaks -- forced turnovers helped fuel the Hall break as the Pirates went on a tear in the latter part of the half and opened a 46-29 lead at intermission. The second half the pirates were never really threatened. Longwood did cut the deficit to nine roughly midway through the final half. The last 12 minutes the Lancers scorer 8 points and the Hall ran away with it.

Let Your Light so Shine -- a noticeable bright spot was the play of Fuquan Edwin. The freshman swingman scored a career high 17 points while adding 9 boards. Against the Longwood zone, Edwin was able to get inside the gaps of the zone and attack on the baseline. "Fu (Edwin) is understanding what a good shot is and what isn't," Seton Hall coach Kevin Willard said. "We want him to be a slasher than shoot threes not the other way around."

Patrik Auda's nine point effort has also to encourage Pirate fans. The 6-9 Pirate freshman was coming off a 10 point performance at UMass. "We call Patrik our All-American practice player," Willard said. "He kills them in practice then goes into a passing game out there. He is a good compliment to who we have on the floor and he (Auda) is starting to understand what we need from him."

Having players as Auda and Edwin continue to gain experience and fins a comfortable role will only pay dividends come Big East play.

Keep Shooting -- Longwood was 5 of 21 from three. No problem per coach Mike Gillian. Entering the game 35% of the Lancer offense came from downtown. Gillian wants his team to fire away. He would like the shots to go in, If they don't keep shooting. "The three helps us a great deal," he said. "Just taking them opens up the inside for Carter and spreads the defense for penetration. We will keep shooting them (threes)." And for their sake, making more than the 24% they shot tonight.

Longwood mentor Mike Gillian
explains his three point shooting theory

Finishing:
Longwood is 3-8, Seton Hall 5-4. Edwin and Theodore shared the game scoring honors with 17 points each.