The Big East's 2012 Mirrors

Pairing Up for 2012
Looks like the Big East schedule maker earned his (her?) pay, as the pairs for 2012 do indeed reflect changes based on the 2011 conference results and the coaches poll taken in May. The 2012 release was actually a bit later in the off season than the 2011 schedule. Though I have been writing about other events over the last 2+ weeks, I developed a profile of each team's home, away and mirror opponents, looking for a moment to review the results and post an analysis. Mirror games constitute 33% of each team's 18 game schedule. These pairings can provide a team with a an advantage (or disadvantage) in conference standing. And a make or break should a team find itself on the bubble...

		BET	Mirror
	PWP	Seed	Opponents
Connecticut	0.611	6.0	NDU, SHU, Cuse
West Virginia	0.610	5.3	NDU, Pitt, RU
Rutgers	0.575	7.0	NDU, SHU,WVU
Cincinnati	0.563	8.7	MU, St. John's, Nova
DePaul	0.555	6.7	Ville, St. John's, SHU
Louisville	0.551	7.0	DPU, Pitt, Cuse
Marquette	0.549	8.0	Nati, GTown, Nova
South Florida	0.543	8.3	Pitt, PC, Nova
Pittsburgh	0.504	8.3	Ville, USF, WVU
Syracuse	0.487	8.7	UConn, Ville, PC
Notre Dame	0.485	9.7	UConn, RU, WVU
Villanova	0.476	10.7	Nati, MU, USF
Providence	0.468	9.0	GTown, USF, Cuse
Georgetown	0.467	10.0	MU, PC, St. Johns
St. John's	0.399	10.0	Nati, DPU, GTown
Seton Hall	0.307	12.7	UConn, DPU, RU
Average	0.509	8.5
Std Dev.	0.080	1.89

Note the table contains each team's mirrors. I averaged the Pythagorean Winning Percentage (PWP) and Big East Tournament seed for each team's mirror opponents.

Observations
When developing the schedule, the conference polls the coaches for their conference ranking, as usually a first step to organize the conference into tiers. ESPN and CBS will typically weigh in with ideas for televized games and the conference has a standing commitment (which varies from year-to-year) to maintain traditional rivalries. Coaches poll results are not made public until Basketball Media Day (usually the third week in October), though occasionally a coach may reveal parts of his ballot early. On paper the objective of the mirrors is balance (the mix of mirrors should produce a "middling opponent"), the potential for more TV eyeballs can leave that

While the conference schedule maker preserved a few of historic rivalries ("The Backyard Brawl" -- Pittsburgh and West Virginia, "The Battle of New Jersey" -- Rutgersand Seton Hall...), others have been put on hiatus...for next season anyway. Cincinnati's and Louisville's annual home-and-home dating back to their CUSA (and Metro Conference?) days is gone. And the Orange Nation and Hoya Faithful seem torn between apoplexy and mild indifference (not a strong opponent) that Georgetown and Syracuse will meet only once (in the Dome) in 2012. The single game drew (generally unfavorable) reactions from several mainstream media sources. Syracuse travels well, probably the best in the conference, encountered severe problems getting tickets, above the visiting team allotment, to the Verizon Center (Georgetown's home court) for last season's game as the Hoya Athletic Department made a concerted effort to sell out the arena to the Georgetown fanbase.

Connecticut seems to have drawn the short straw for mirros next season, appropriate given their National Championship (not to mention Big East Tournament title) in 2011. Given that Coach Calhoun can anticipate about 60.8% of his 2011 minutes back in 2012 (the conference average right now is 56%), perhaps it is justice. Or maybe not, as the Huskies will return only 53% of their scoring. Among the Huskies' mirrors Notre Dame brings back 49% of their minutes (ouch...), Seton Hall brings back 61% and Syracuse brings back nearly 71%. The Orange have to be favored for the regular season title next season; the Hall will return Herb Pope and Jordan Theordore. Despite Notre Dame's lack of experience next season, the Huskies hardly have a walk over in their mirror slate.

Seton Hall's favorable draw (from a PWP standpoint...) may go unexploited given the Pirates lost Jeremy Hazell, Jeff Robinson, Eniel Polynice (graduation/exhausted eligibility) and Jamel Jackson (transfer). They do bring back enough that should Patrik Auda make progress and the bigs recruited by Coach Willard develop, the Pirates could go 3-3 against that slate.

St. John's presents and interesting case study for next season. The Johnnies return <5% (not a typo) of the minutes from the 2011 squad that stormed back into the conference elites with a 12-6 conference record (good for a threeway tie for third place, though the Johnnies took the #5 seed in the BET). Advice to the Johnnies' mirrors (Cincinnati, DePaul and Georgetown) -- get them early (before they gel) or late (freshman fatigue).

If, as I suspect, the Cardinals, Panthers and (mostly) the Orange are the class of the conference, Louisville's Coach Rick Pitino may again be barking at the schedule maker. Louisville is slated to meet both Syracuse and Pittsburgh next season (that is four ready-for-TV matchups), while Syracuse and Pittsburgh will meet only once (at the Dome). The Orange do have to face Connecticut, while the Panthers drew traditional foe West Virginia, as their second mirror. The Mountaineers bring back all of 33.9% of their minutes for 2011, however. The Backyard Brawl may well turn out to be less competitive than previous seasons.

Expect DePaul to improve their record next season, but Coach Oliver Purnell's squad has struggled against the better competition offered in their mirror draw. The opponents they drew, on paper, look like one of the more competitive sets in the conference going into this season. The Blue Demons will better their 1-15 conference record from 2011, but do not be shocked/disappointed if they go 0-6/1-5 against Louisville, St. John's and Seton Hall. 2-4 would be very good; 3-3 a signal that DePaul is ready to compete in the conference.

Many in the Nova Nation looked at Villanova's slate as a step back from some of the elite draws the program has gotten in the past 4-5 seasons. This particular mixed bag of mirrors could easily put the Wildcat at 5-1 or 1-5. Those three posted a collective conference record of 19-35, but all three should be better by the start of the season. The Wildcats have had success (outside of the Big East Tournament...) against Marquette, butthat could change. Expect South Florida to post a better record than 2011. Cincinnati has played tough at home but faltered on the road.

Marquette at Seton Hall: Senior Night at the Rock

Questions & Answers...
The 8,347 fans, largely Seton Hall faithful, who turned out to see Jeremy Hazell's last game at the Rock were expectant. The Pirates had stunned the Johnnies on Thursday night with an 84-70 upset, putting the Red Storm's bye seed to the Big East Tournament in doubt; the fans sensed what this squad could do, had come so close to doing all season long. Without their gunner they had rocked Dayton and Richmond for a half, but the shallow bench and inexperience had cost them in the end as their opponents had patiently chipped away and finally broken through at the end. They had stunned St. John's. Could they do it again...do it consistently? Saturday night at the Rock the Pirates came out shooting, and they did not stop all game long. They hit more threes than they had before in conference play; they sunk just enough free throws to keep their cushion. After stunning the Marquette team with a 20-8 run to start the game, the Pirates survived the see-saw of the last 32 minutes of play to secure their 85-72 win over Marquette.

The Warriors needed this win very, very much. Securing a #10 seed and stepping over the staggering Villanova Wildcats was only the most immediate benefit accrued by a win. The longer term goal was to limit the latest losing streak, started Wednesday night against Cincinnati in their own Senior Night, and to show the NCAA Selection Committee that they would not wilt at the end of the season. They left perhaps with fewer answers than when they arrived. Porous shot defense, a flaw that has sabotaged their efforts in their games with Pittsburgh, Louisville, their first games with Notre Dame & Connecticut, Georgetown and St. John's seemed to be "solved" in their three game run that included strong wins over Connecticut (in Storrs) and Providence was back again against the Hall. The first half in particular was damaging. The Pirates were able to set screens for Jeff Robinson and Jeremy Hazell that their Marquette defenders could not run through. Time and again Jordan Theodore was able to drive the lane and draw Robinson's defender off of the senior wing. With enough separation Robinson was able to take the pass, set his feet and shoot. The Pirates' 61.8% completion rate from beyond the arc was equivalent to hitting 92.7% of their two point attempts. Fatal.

The breakdown by halves...

	1st	2nd	Game
Pace	32.9	34.8	67.7
	Seton Hall				Marquette
	1st	2nd	Game		1st	2nd	Game
Rating	148.8	103.5	125.5		106.3	106.4	106.3
eFG%	70.3	44.7	60.8		47.9	50.0	49.0
TORate	6.1	23.0	15.4		20.8	18.9	20.7
OR%	35.3	35.7	35.5		33.3	27.8	30.3
FTA/FGA	28.1	115.8	60.8		66.7	53.6	59.6
FTM/FGA	12.5	100.0	45.1		50.0	32.1	40.4
ARate	76.5	37.5	64.0		66.7	33.3	47.6
Blk%	4.2	5.9	7.8		12.5	3.6	7.7
Stl%	0.0	3.1	3.1		8.9	10.8	9.9
PPWS	1.35	1.22	1.29		1.11	1.05	1.08
2FG%	42.9	43.8	43.3		33.3	44.4	40.0
3FG%	61.1	33.3	57.1		41.7	40.0	40.9
FT%	44.4	86.4	74.2		75.0	60.0	67.7
%2FG	24.5	38.9	30.6		22.9	43.2	33.3
%3FG	67.3	8.3	42.4		42.9	32.4	37.5
%FT	8.2	52.8	27.1		34.3	24.3	29.2

The pace was one both squads could live with, though it seemed as if Seton Hall marginally benefited with a 4-2 scoring advantage on fast breaks. The pace was deceiving, as play stopped frequently for video reviews, foul calls and foul stoppages that became timeouts.

Halftime Adjustments
Seton Hall held a clear, 14 point advantage going into the intermission. By virtue of their torrid shooting spree, combined with a two turnover (versus seven for Marquette) half, the Pirates held a significant 32-24 field goal attempted advantage over Marquette. With the eight additional FGAs, the Hall was able to tease a 17-9 shot conversion advantage over the Golden Eagles, and a shocking 11-18 conversion rate for three point attempts. The Warriors played from behind from the opening tip, and never once held a lead.

Notes and Observations
1. There were 22 total fouls called in the first half alone, with Seton Hall allocated the large portion of the calls. Five Hall players had at least two fouls, including starters Hazell and Herb Pope. Two Pirates, starter Jeff Robinson and bench center Aaron Geramipoor holding three fouls before the intermission. Willard was gambling on Robinson, and the senior forward was called for a cheapie (tangled arms) with just over a minute to go in the half. The second half was even worse, with the team racking up a stunning 53 total fouls. Marquette's strategy was apparent; down by double digits for most of the game, they had to foul to regain possession. The strategy, one that had worked in the Dayton and Richmond games (and others no doubt), failed tonight because the Hall players hit enough free throws in the second half (19-22 0.864) to make the trade-off prohibitive. Robinson scored nine points in seven minutes of first half play. He picked up foul #4 15 seconds into the second half and logged only another seven minutes in that half as well. Geramipoor played a total of 13 minutes, took no shots from the field, went 0-4 from the charity stripe and committed a single turnover in 13 minutes of play.
2. The Hall got quality minutes out of both Geramipoor and Patrik Auda, two freshman forwards whose play to date has not earned them vast amounts of playing time this season. Auda in particular scored 10 points, going 3-4 from three point land and picking up an additional point at the free throw line.
3. Marquette's point guard Junior Cadougan struggled for large portions of the game. The red shirt sophomore had three assists offset by three turnovers, shot 2-6 from the field (no three pointers). Coach Buzz Williams substituted freshman Vander Blue in several times, the most critical portion of his playing time came late in the second half, when Blue had to deal with a rare Pirate press. Robinson guarded the inbounder Blue, and taunted him relentlessly. The strategy worked, as Blue became so rattled that he threw the pass away at one point. Odd coaching decision at that critical juncture of the game.
4. Marquette coach Buzz Williams took over an hour to "meet the press". The Rock has one of the larger, more accessable press lounges in the conference, yet despite Willard's eight minute stint before the assembled ink and elecronic media, the Marquette coach took over an hour to emerge and give an impromptu interview outside the Marquette locker room. When he emerged, it was clear he had showered and exchanged his suit and tie for a pair of sweats. A St. Benedict's player waited patiently with the press. When Williams emerged, he embraced the player and they talked for several minutes before the coach turned to engage the few media people left (a fraction of the number who covered the game).

Because This is a Villanova Blog...
Despite losing by 10 to Pittsburgh, Marquette's loss gives the BET's #10 seed to Villanova. The Wildcats face South Florida Tuesday at Madison Square Garden.

Numbers...Next...
Seton Hall finishes the regular season at 13-17, 7-11 in conference play. The Pirates, the #12 seed, will play #13 seed Rutgers Tuesday at 2:00pm. This is the rubber game for 2011. The teams boast records of 1-1 against each other. Marquette which finished the regular season with an 18-13 overall record and a 9-9 record in conference play, draws the #11 seed to the BET, and will play #14 Providence at 9:00pm Tuesday night.

Signs of the Off Season 2010 #3: Where Are They Now?

What Have Been
I was over at Ken Pomeroy's website looking for a good explanation of leverage which I plan to use in another post, when I saw a great list, assembled by Pomeroy's research Nic Reiner-Parra, of transfers who become eligible this season. I recognized a number of names from Big East or Atlantic-10 rosters, both incoming and outgoing, with a few recruiting targets thrown in for good measure. While a few of the names have been mentioned elsewhere this off season, others have been noted only in passing, possibly last summer (or earlier). A number of names brought a smile, and sometimes a sigh of relief knowing the player landed on his feet (hopefully)...

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Name	Pos	Year	From	To
Gaby Belardo	G	So	South Florida	Canisius
Trey Blue	SG	So	Fordham	Illinois St.
Mike Davis	C	Jr	Seton Hall	St. Francis NY
Greg Echenique*	PF	So	Rutgers	Creighton
Eladio Espinosa	PF	So	South Florida	Marshall
Jio Fontan*	PG	So	Fordham	Southern Cal
Scottie Haralson	SG	So	Connecticut	Tulsa
Patrick Hazel	F	Jr	Marquette	Boston U.
Alex Kellogg	PF	Jr	Providence	Ohio
Travis King	PG	Sr	George Washington	UMBC
Justin Leemow	PG	Jr	South Florida	NC Central
Jeronne Maymon*	PF	So	Marquette	Tennessee
Liam McMorrow	C	So	Marquette	Tennessee Tech
N. Meshcharakov*	PF	Jr	Georgetown	Wake Forest
Mike Moore	G	Jr	Fordham	Hofstra
Josh Parker	PG	Jr	Drake	Dayton
Darryl Partin	G	Jr	La Salle	Boston U.
Earl Pettis	G	Jr	Rutgers	La Salle
Eniel Polynice	G	Sr	Mississippi	Seton Hall
Lamar Thomas	F	So	Fordham	Houston Baptist
Quintrell Thomas	PF	So	Kansas	UNLV
Phil Wait	C	So	St. John's	Monmouth
Omar Wattad	F	Jr	Georgetown	Chattanooga
Brandon Walters	PF	Jr	Seton Hall	Siena
Kraidon Woods	SF	Jr	Binghamton	Drake

* -- marks those players due to be eligible after the end of the fall semester.
Trey Blue, Jio Fontan, Mike Moore and Lamar Thomas were just a single wave of players who left Fordham in Dereck Whittenburg's last year as head coach. There were four more players who left at the end of the 2010 season. Tom Pecora has a massive rebuilding job ahead, though Chris Gaston is a good place to start. Gaby Belardo, Eladio Espinosa and Justin Leemow were also an outbound wave, leaving South Florida and Coach Stan Heath's program, at the conclusion of the 2009 season. All three were freshmen who, though drawing playing time at various points in the season, did not seem to be able to work themselves into the regular rotation. At the end of the fall 2009 semesster Greg Echenique left Rutgers for Tulsa after an eye injury curtailed his season (he rationalized he was leaving Rutgers anyway, so there was little need to stay the year). Creighton coach Dana Altman left the Lincoln, Nebraska school during the 2010 off season to take the head coaching job at Oregon State. Maybe he should have stayed. Both Travis King of George Washington and Eniel Polynice of Mississippi are taking advantage of the fifth year rule that allows graduated seniors with a year of eligibility left to transfer and play immediately. The Big East should benefit when Polynice suits up for Seton Hall, and King should provide some leadership for the UMBC program.

Impact Players...Maybe?
Well-regarded recruit Jeronne Maymon had barely unpacked his bags at Marquette and he was off again, this time to play for Bruce Pearl at Tennessee. He attributed his quick departure to crossed wires over promises of playing time, so it will be interesting to see how much time he draws in Volunteer games, when he becomes eligible for the spring 2011 portion of the season. Earl Pettis was pretty effective when he suited up for Fred Hill at Rutgers. He should have a positive impact on the Explorer program when he starts play this season. Jio Fontan was an impact player for Fordham in the A-10. A prolific shooter, he was the Rams' chief (only?) offensive weapon through much of the 2009 season, who proved to be valuable as a recruiting attraction as well. USC Coach Kevin O'Neil is looking at NCAA-imposed penalties that will impact the Trojans' for next two to three seasons, and has to thank his stars that Fontan is in the fold. Quintrell Thomas was a one-time recruiting target for Villanova and other Big East schools, who listened to the siren song of Joe Dooley and Bill Self, packed his bags and headed to Kansas. When the Morris twins hit the lineup Thomas found playing was very scarce. He will try his hand at UNLV this season, hoping to make a place for himself. Phil Wait was a late off season pick up for Norm Roberts when he coached St. John's. Though 7-0, Wait was unable to get much court time with the Johnnies. He should do much better at Monmouth in the NEC. If he were better known, Kraidon Woods would definitely earn a spot on Dick Vitale's All-Marco Polo Team. Woods verballed to Villanova his senior year in high school, but caught in a numbers game (scholarships), Woods decided to prep a year at the Hill School in Pottstown, PA., and reopened his recruitment during his year at Hill after Villanova signed their 2011 that included Corey Stokes, Malcolm Grant, Corey Fisher and Antonio Pena. He committed to Coach Sendek's Arizona State program but -- numbers again -- spent two seasons on the Sun Devils bench before transferring to Binghamton in the American East conference. He unpacked his bags and the program fell apart amid a series of Players Behaving Badly incidents that motivated the administration to first clear out most of the team, suspend, then terminate then-coach Kevin Broadus and bring in an interim coach, Mark Macon, to begin the rebuilding process. After sitting the required year, Woods decided to move to Drake and applied for an eligibility waiver. Having been granted, the 6-9 #3/#4 will have two more seasons of Division 1 play. Best of luck to Kraidon, we hope this move is everything you want it to be.

Many thanks to Ken Pomeroy and Nic Reiner-Parra for putting together the list.

2011 Transfers/JUCOs -- Nine to Watch

Another Effect of the 2009 Recession?
During the economic uncertainties in the spring of 2009 it seems a number of ADs held off on coaching decisions only to take decisive action during the 2010 season, as the economy began to improve. The large influx of transfers from the summer of 2008 slowed to a trickle in the summer of 2009; five of the nine listed this post are JUCOs who will be eligible immediately, and two others, both transfers from other Division 1 programs, are expected to qualify immediately under existing rules. Which leaves only two who did sit for (at least) a season.

	Who, What, Where...
Player	Pos.	Hgt	Wgt	From	To
Ron Anderson	4	6-8	225	Kansas State	South Florida
Jae Crowder	3	6-6	225	Howard College	Marquette
Tyree Graham	2	6-0	190	Brunswick CC (NC)	Rutgers
Shedrick Haynes	1/2	6-0	185	Lackawanna College	South Florida
Scott Martin	2/3	6-8	200	Purdue	Notre Dame
Eniel Polynice	2	6-5	220	Mississippi	Seton Hall
Jawanza Poland	2	6-4	195	Cowley CCC	South Florida
Hugh Robertson	2/3	6-5	195	Tallahassee CC	South Florida
Roburt Sallie	1/2	6-5	186	Memphis	Louisville

A quick check on transfers (but not JUCOs) this summer shows that nearly 450 Division 1 basketball players will change schools. Of that cohort, most -- but not all -- who will find another D1 program will sit for a season before gaining eligibility. From the group listed here, Eniel Polynice and Roburt Sallie should gain eligibility immediately. For the players who left a Division 1 program, assembling the statistics of their play at their previous stop was fairly easy, (many...) thanks to Ken Pomeroy. For six of the players, I have provided a mix of possession-based stats and shooting efficiency stats based either on their last season with a Division 1 team, or, where sufficient data was available, their JUCO stats...

		On Offense...
Player	%Min	ORtg	%Poss	%Shots	PPWS
Eniel Polynice	57.9	93.4	24.5	21.5	0.94
Scott Martin	51.1	97.9	23.8	23.2	0.98
Hugh Robertson	79.4	103.2	21.4	19.1	1.51
Tyree Graham	14.1	81.5	20.6	19.0	0.85
Ron Anderson	46.4	107.1	16.8	11.2	1.05
Roburt Sallie	76.9	117.3	16.6	17.3	1.20

For Polynice, Martin, Graham, Anderson and Sallie, the stats are from their last D1 stop, Mississippi, Purdue, Texas Tech, Kansas State and Memphis respectively. Graham played for Texas Tech in his freshman season. He then left to play a year at Study (NC) Brunswick Community College. I have some shooting efficiency stats available from Brunswick, which may shed a bit more light on Graham's value to the Rutgers. Statistical data from Tallahassee CC was complete enough to compute some rough possession-based numbers for Hugh Robertson. So I included him in this group, even though the Community College population is even less uniform that Division 1. If Robertson's Tallahassee numbers cannot be a particularly good predictor for his success at Rutgers, it does give us an idea of how well he functioned within the Tallahassee system.

		Four Factors...
					FTA
Player	%Min	eFG%	OR%	TO%	FGA
Eniel Polynice	57.9	43.4	4.3	24.2	28.7
Scott Martin	51.1	43.1	7.0	17.2	49.8
Hugh Robertson	79.4	57.1	4.7	16.9	39.9
Tyree Graham	14.1	35.8	3.6	25.6	28.3
Ron Anderson	46.4	52.2	13.6	17.7	103.5
Robert Sallie	76.9	57.3	4.1	14.7	42.3

Roburt Sallie and Eniel Polynice, with three seasons of Division 1 stats on the books are probably the two easiest to assess for potential impact. Sallie goes to a Louisville team that needs what he offers, maturity, efficient scoring and (possibly...hopefully) leadership. The possibly that he will transform from a mid-level "Role Player" into a "Go-to Guy" type offensive machine (>28% of the possessions and/or shots) are slim. That he will grow into a "Significant Contributor" (about 20-24% of the possessions and shots) while maintaining his shot efficiency is possible. Assuming he is coachable and plays defense, Louisville will find him minutes. Polynice on the other hand is somewhat problematic. A high-volume scorer, he is a more athletic, less efficient version of the Hall's senior off guard, Jeremy Hazell. Folks who wondered how Hazell, Pope and Keon Lawrence were going to share the ball in 2010, have to wonder how it will work with those three back in South Orange, and joined by Polynice. With a single season of eligibility remaining for Lawrence, Hazell and Polynice, it will be interesting to see how those pieces fit together. If Coach Willard can get and keep them on the same page, the Hall may take a giant step up into the second quartile of the conference. Ron Anderson will join a well-stocked front court rotation that includes (in no particular order) Gus Gilchrist, Jarrid Famous, As for the shot efficiency stats for the JUCOs, this is far from complete, but lacking minutes played, it is the best information we can get about how the player shot the ball

			FTA
Player	eFG%	PPWS	FGA	InOut
Jae Crowder	52.0	1.13	39.8	7.7
Tyree Graham	56.9	1.21	31.9	-10.6
Shedrick Haynes	53.2	1.14	27.9	-24.3
Jawanza Poland	53.8	1.19	50.3	33.1

While he does not appear to be the most efficient scorer among the "pure" JUCOs, Jae Crowder is probably the most anticipated. Marquette needs bodies for front court play, and at 6-6 225, Crowder will definitely see time beside Marquette wing Jimmy Butler. Coach Williams has a habit of finding Texas-based diamonds in the rough, and Crowder may well be his next find. Tyree Graham, an undersized #2 from Texas Tech by way of Supply Brunswick CC in North Carolina, will be one of those Coach Rice looks at closely as a replacement for departed (via transfer) Mike Rosario. Graham has two seasons of eligibility left, and will no doubt be used at both back court spots during the 2011 season. His freshman numbers are consistent with many freshman D1 players, and his minutes are low in part because he left the team during the season to return home and address family issues. Coach Stan Heath's back court was a ghost town on April 5. Dominique Jones and Chris Howard were set to graduate, while Jordan Dumars and Justin Leemow were transfers themselves -- out of Tampa. Working the JUCO circuit, the coach managed to land Shedrick Haynes, Hugh Robertson and Jawanza Poland, to go with several "true" freshmen. Robertson had the fourth highest offensive rating on his Tallahassee CC team, serving as a "Significant Contributor" on a squad that had a single "Go-to Guy" type player and three (Robertson included) "Significant Contributors". Shedrick Haynes played his last year at Lackawanna College in Pennsylvania, showing a decided "outside" tendency in his play (note the -24.3 rating above). Haynes took 52.3% of this field goal attempts from beyond the arc, converting those attempts at a 42.2% rate. Hit at anywhere near that rate for the Bulls, and he will take a lot of pressure off of USF's low post scorers. Jawanza Poland is a good example of the well-traveled player. He enrolled at Crowley County Community College and played there his freshman year, stopping in late January (for not particularly obvious reasons). The Crowley coach moved over to Hutchinson CC for the 2010 season and a number of his players followed him, Poland included. Crowley however, did not release Poland from his commitment, so the wing sat last season awaiting eligibility. And then he transferred to South Florida to join Coach Heath's squad. The numbers above, are two years old, and the last organized ball Poland played. He appears to be a slasher, a wing who goes to the basket (note his inside/outside stat is in the low 30s, and his FTA/FGA is >50, more characteristic of a front court, rather than a wing, player) and scores efficiently.

Hits and Misses...Last Season's Transfer/JUCOs
Wesley Johnson was the definition of an impact player. While the Syracuse team was the model for team play, the Iowa State transfer was the early season face of the resurgent Syracuse program. The Orange blew through the conference regular season, taking the title and #1 seed in the Big East Tournament, bringing Coach Jim Boeheim his fourth Conference Coach of the Year award and Johnson the Big East Player of the Year award. Despite an injury to senior bfc Arinze Onuaku that clearly diminished the team's inside presence, the NCAA seeded the Orange #1 in the West Region, where they fell to Butler in the Sweet Sixteen. Johnson, a consensus All-American waived his last season of eligibility and was drafted by the Timberwolves as the fourth selection in the NBA draft. Notre Dame looked to Ben Hansbrough for his outside shot, and the 6-3 off guard obliged with an efficient (if not dominant) contribution. Hansbrough, who completed his academic work and graduated last May, had a single season of eligibility left. Going into structured practices after the start of the Fall Semester, Darius Johnson-Odom was listed behind true freshman Junior Cadougan at the #1 and fellow JUCO Dwight Buycks and senior David Cubillan at the #2. Cadougan suffered a severe ankle injury and senior Maurice Ackers rejoined the team to man the point, but despite an injury of his own in September, Johnson-Odom rehabbed quickly and went on to be one of the most dangerous three point shooters in the conference last season. Both Dwight Buycks and Johnson-Odom will return to the Golden Eagles this season. James Beatty logged 63.7% of the playing time for Rutgers last season. An assist leader and very efficient scorer, his role in the offense (as measured by possession and shot rates) was limited. Perhaps with the change in coaching, that will change this season. Seton Hall's transfer duo Keon Lawrence and Herb Pope ran afoul of the "law". For Lawrence, the transgression was civil, and occured at the end of the exhibition season. Lawrence was suspended from team activities for about seven weeks, and re-instated at the beginning of the Big East season. Pope sucker punched a Texas Tech player early in the Hall's NIT game in March. He was ejected from the game and Seton Hall went on to lose that game 87-69. Bobby Gonzalez, SHU's coach, was fired the next day. Pope and Lawrence will return to South Orange this season to play for the Pirate's new head coach Kevin Willard. Forward Taylor King started very strong for Villanova, pulling down important rebounds and providing the Wildcats with a consistent perimeter threat. As the season progressed King's minutes declined. He was one of three players suspended at various points during the latter part of the season, not playing in the Wildcats' last regular season game, and used very sparingly in Villanova's last three games. King left the program in June, moved back to California and committed to play for Southern California in July. He now appears headed to NAIA Division 1 Concordia College in California. Scott Martin appears for the second consecutive season. Martin tore up his ACL before the 2009 season, had surgery to repair his knee and has engaged in a year's worth of rehabilitation.

Post Script
Coach Rick Pitino announced that Roburt Sallie would not be eligible to play for Louisville in 2011. Sallie sought a waiver to the one year sit rule because he had finished his undergraduate studies at Memphis and was enrolled in a Louisville graduate program not offered at Memphis. Though rumored for several days, Coach Pitino provided confirmation in a radio interview early Friday (8/27) morning.

2011 To Watch Lists
Rising Seniors to Watch
Rising Juniors to Watch
Rising Sophomores to Watch