Preview -- Towson

The Wildcats and Tigers meet in the semifinal round of their bracket in the 2008 edition of The Philly Hoops Classic. The game will be played in the Palestra, home court for the Penn Quakers and the "neutral" site used for years to host all Big 5 games. Villanova and Towson have played three games in a series that dates back to 1981. This is the first time, however, they have met in the Palestra. Villanova holds a 3-0 edge. Nova won their last meeting (2001) by a 87-75 score. The Towson program is guided by Pat Kennedy, a veteran D1 head coach whose career spans 27 years and includes stops at Iona College (NY), Florida State, (fellow Big East conference member) DePaul and Montana where he has compiled a 449-367 record. Coach Kennedy's personal record versus Villanova is 0-1 (a 67-66 loss at the Red Lobster Classic, Orlando, FLA, in 1988-89).

What Others Say...
...Blue Ribbon gives the backcourt a B, the frontcourt a A and the bench/depth a B. Blue Ribbon Yearbook (Mike Litos author) picked Towson to finish #7 in the 12 member Colonial Athletic Association (CAA). Jeff Borzello over at March Madness All Season Blog lists Towson among "Rounding Out the Pack" (lowest category) in his CAA Preview. Joel Welser over at CHN ranked the Tigers #289 out of 341 (#12 of 12 in the CAA) for his 144 Teams Project. The CAA coaches picked Towson to finish #9 in conference play at their annual Media Day Celebration. The team over at Rush the Court Blog picked Towson to finish #10 in their CAA Conference Preview. Most of the preview is devoted to the conference elites (VCU, George Mason, etc.), so there is little written about the Tigers.

Why Everyone Believes...
...Coach Pat Kennedy seems to specialize in rebuilding programs. The Tigers moved up to the CAA two years before he arrived and struggled to be competitive at the CAA level. Coming off of the floor (a 6-23 record) his first season at the helm, the Tigers have been able to get double digit wins in each of the last 3 seasons. The progress has been uneven, but generally upward. Senior forward Junior Hairston was selected to the All-CAA 2nd Team by the CAA coaches.

So Far...
...Towson (CAA, 3-1, RPI #66) brings a 3-1 record to this match. Notable (i.e. only) wins by the Tigers -- Navy (Pat 3-1, #135), Hampton (MEAC, 1-2, #117) and NJIT (ind, 0-3, #150). The 'Cats and Tigers have both played Niagara (another Philly Hoops Classic participant) this month:

	VU		Towson
Niagara	W	+15	L	-17

The 'Cats enter this game sporting a 4-0 record - their most recent effort, against the Monmouth Hawks (fellow Philly Hoops Classic participant), had the Wildcats hit the locker room at the half up by 32, and cruise through the second half for a 23 point win (71-48). The 'Cats closest game, against Niagara, was a 15 point win.

Frontcourt vs frontcourt...
...The front court begins with senior forward Junior Hairston (6-8, 205lbs), a College of Charleston transfer who started every game for Towson last season (his first in the CAA). Hairston led the Tigers in 4 categories last season, including points scored (360), field goal percentage (0.438) and rebounding (9.1). Other returnees include seniors Tony Durant (6-7, 245lbs) & Tommy Breaux (6-8, 210lbs), along with sophomores Robert Nwankwo (6-8, 220lbs) and David Brewster (6-6, 205lbs). Durant started 23 of Towson's 31 games last season, but after an early suspension, has found himself behind a couple of newcomers by way of transfer. Coach Kennedy has taken the transfer route to build up his front court. The incoming transfers who qualify to play this season include, junior Calvin Lee (6-7, 200lbs) and sophomore Jarrel Smith (6-7 200lbs) who are joined by redshirt freshman Ricardo Brown (6-5, 215lbs). Jarrel Smith has gotten all 4 starts so far, with the other starter split between Lee and Nwankwo. Other front court players in the rotation include Hairston who returned against Niagara, and Brewster.

Villanova will counter with senior Dante Cunningham and sophomore Antonio Pena, both starters for all four games in the 2008-09 season. Senior Shane Clark and junior Casiem Drummond should also be present in the rotation. Senior Frank Tchuisi will provide end of half relief if needed.

Backcourt vs backcourt...
...Coach Kennedy's philosophy of building through transfers extended into the back court last season as junior Georgetown transfer Josh Thornton (6-2, 175lbs) who began play last January. Joining him are returning seniors Rocky Coleman (6-3, 180lbs), 3 point shooter Tim Crossin (6-1, 175lbs) and backup point guard Vernon Carr (6-2, 200lbs) who started 8 games at the #1 last season. Sophomore transfers Jimmy Smith (6-4, 180lbs), brother of Jarrel and Brian Morris (6-5, 171lbs) who moved over from Richmond appear ready to join the rotation. True freshman Troy Franklin (5-11, 160lbs) has started the Tigers first four games at the #1. The Smith brothers transferred in from Colorado State. Manning the deep bench are redshirt sophomore Caleb McClary (6-0, 175lbs) and senior (former walk-on) Ryan Kannegieter (5-11, 172lbs). Coach Kennedy has started Thornton, Morris and Franklin, while divvying up the remaining minutes (during various games) among Crossin, Coleman and Carr. Unless he wants to go bigger versus Villanova, Coach Kennedy will most likely stay with the Thornton, Morris, Franklin trio.

Villanova will counter with Reynolds, Fisher and Stokes. Reynolds and Fisher had terrible outings against the Monmouth Hawks. Scottie scored 9 points on 1-6 (0-3, 7-8) shooting, his lowest scoring output since Villanova lost at Louisville last March. Fisher has now had two games of relatively inefficient output. In the Niagara game however he was able to compensate for poor shooting by grabbing 6 rebounds and dishing 5 assists. His off the ball production verseus Monmouth was a bit more modest. A bounce-back game would be reassuring to the fans. Stokes keeps rolling along. The additional foot has not affected his scoring touch from distance. His eFG% remains (well) North of 50.0 (77.6) while he continues to contribute with assists and boards.

Towson By the Numbers...
Over the past 5 years Towson's RPI has swung in a 150 rank range, from a high of #156 to a low of #302. Last season the Tigers finished ranked #278. Towson is a little higher than average pace team this season (69.9 possessions, adjusted, via Ken Pomeroy's Towson Scout Page which ranks the Tigers #133 out of approx. 344 - the current average for pace is 68.7). A Four Factors comparison of Towson's offense versus Villanova's defense (complements of Ken Pomeroy's Scouting Report for Towson and Villanova) looks like this...

When Towson has the ball...
				FTA
	eFG%	TO%	OR%	FGA
Tiger O	46.6	20.7	35.7	30.1
'Cat D	44.3	24.0	27.3	34.9

Towson's eFG% is a weakness for them. They are ranked at about #233 in that category. The culprit is 2 point shooting, likely given Junior Hairston's suspension and Josh Thornton's minislump. The front court has been relatively productive, but Towson's back court has been a bit uneven in point production. The other stat of interest is the turnover rate. Villanova's defense forces them (that 24.0 translates into an #85 rank), while Towson's offense tends to give them up (their rank is #143). The Tigers were especially careless against Hampton (average backcourt, but first game) and Niagara (aggressive back court). Shutting down Thornton and forcing turnovers could well stall out the Tigers. Turning around to look at the Four Factors from the other side of the ball...

When Villanova has the ball...
				FTA
	eFG%	TO%	OR%	FGA
'Cat O	56.9	17.7	39.8	39.0
Tiger D	43.2	22.4	40.6	21.6

The Wildcats have been especially strong on field goal efficiency (despite the minislump from Fisher and Reynolds...), ranking #29 overall in eFG%. Nova's strongest point has been 3 point shooting (thank you Mr. Stokes...), an area of strength for Towson as well. This should be a good indicator of the Wildcat's fortunes -- if the 'Cats can hit the long ones consistently, then they should roll. Towson is pretty average on 2 point defense (ranked #233 on 44.8). This could be an opening for another big night by senior Dante Cunningham. Dante has been on a tear lately, putting up an average of 18.5 ppg through the 'Cats first four games. 'Te has maintained an impressive eFG% of 63.0 with a PPWS of 1.31, suggesting he is very efficient when scoring. He has also maintained "go-to guy" level possessions and shots (>26.0), indicating he is overpowering the competition so far. Antonio Pena has also provided efficient scoring, but has assumed more a "role player/regular/starter" level possessions and shots (15% < 22%). Towson's area of vulnerability is rebounding -- they are ranked #318 overall for limiting opponent's offensive rebounds. Villanova by contrast is very good at offensive rebounding (ranked #47 overall), largely due to Cunningham and Pena. This could be a mismatch that Coach Kennedy will have to take steps to address.

Final Thoughts...
Both teams will likely utilize front court rotations dominated by 'tweeners -- Towson's entire contingent weighs in at less than 245 (Tony Durant) and heights ranging from 6-5 to 6-8. Villanova's regulars (Casiem Drummond excepted) have similar dimensions -- all fall in the 6-6 to 6-8 range, with Cunningham the "heavy weight" at 235lbs. Considering 2 point defense (and Nova's recent decent production from the frontcourt) coupled with offensive rebounding stats, suggest the frontcourt matchups could be very competitive. Both Cunningham and Pena have been especially vulnerable to fouls however, having played less than 25 minutes each in the Niagara game (and subsequently fouling out). Pena took an early exit from the Monmouth game. Villanova's second line (Drummond, Tchuisi and Clark) while contributors all so far, have proved less efficient & prolific at scoring, and less aggressive at rebounding. The Wildcats hold a distinct advantage in back court matchups. The Tigers have started freshman Troy Franklin for a reason. Josh Thornton is the best of the contingent, with Brian Morris searching for a role in the offense. This might be a good game for Reynolds and Fisher to regain some confidence.

The staff has maintained a 10 man rotation despite injuries to core members of the squad. They have doled out double digit minutes to a consistent group of 7-8 players (the starters plus 2-3 from Clark, Drummond, Redding and Tchuisi).

The game should be played for about 66 possessions; Villanova has shown little aptitude for controlling the pace this season, so they may be vulnerable to playing closer to Towson's preferred pace (Coach Kennedy likes to push the offense...the Tigers would probably prefer possessions in the 70s). According to adjusted offensive and defensive efficiencies the Wildcats should take this game too, by a margin in the range of 20 or so points (likely a bit less).

Roster Notes...
Villanova --
1. Dwayne Anderson is due to have his ankle checked next week. He will not be available for the game.
2. Casiem Drummond, having served a one game suspension, is due to return for Townson, and should be available to play.
Towson --
1. This will be Junior Hairston's second game since returning from a 3 game suspension imposed by Coach Kennedy on 11/7/08 for violating team policies.
2. Freshman Ricardo Brown, a 6-5 forward out of Harrisburg, PA was suspended for violating team policies at the same time as Junior Hairston. Brown's suspension, for five games, is due to be lifted for Towson's last Philly Hoops Classic game on Saturday.

The 2008 Philly Classic -- Fleshing Out the Details

The A10 conference released many of their member schedules en mass yesterday, which, aside from confirming circulating rumors of a game with the Fordham Rams (scheduled for 11/17 in the Pav) and fixing the date for Villanova's Big 5 game against St. Joseph's (scheduled for 12/11), confirmed rumors circulating among Rhode Island Ram fans from last month. The Rams announced they will open their Philly Classic run against Monmouth on the road and then host Hartford before heading down to the Palestra to play rounds 3 and 4. Along with the Purple Eagles of Niagara (out of the MAAC), who also released their OOC schedule yesterday, much of the speculation about the brackets and preliminary round games have been confirmed. The eight team field has been divided into two brackets of four teams each...

Bracket A:		Bracket B:
Hartford		Penn State
Monmouth		Rhode Island
Niagara		Towson
NJIT		Villanova

Preliminary round games (two of them) are scheduled to be hosted by some of the teams in the field and played at sites (largely campus) outside of Philadelphia. The third round will be played in the Palestra on Friday November 28. Round 4 games (round 3 winners vs winners, losers vs losers) will be played on Saturday November 29. The schedule for the preliminary rounds games...

Home	Visitor	Date
Niagara	Towson	11/16/2008
Penn State	NJIT	11/17/2008
Villanova	Niagara	11/19/2008
Monmouth	Rhode Island	11/20/2008
Penn State	Hartford	11/20/2008
Towson	NJIT	11/24/2008
Rhode Island	Hartford	11/25/2008
Villanova	Monmouth	TBA

Between Hartford and Rhode Island we can tease out the November 28 games at the Palestra as well. Rhode Island announced the Rams will face the Nittany Lions of the Big Ten. The Hartford Hawks schedule shows their round 3 opponent will be the NJIT Highlanders. That means Monmouth and Niagara will face-off in the other "Bracket A" game, while Villanova and Towson will play the other "Bracket B" game.

Philly Classic Update: Three's the Charm

The University of Hartford website released the Hartford Hawk's 2008-09 Out of Conference (OOC) schedule. The Hawk's two preliminary games are, as suggested in my July 30 post, a road game with Rhode Island and a road game with Penn State. Since Hartford is the third member of the eight team field to release their match-ups, this pretty much confirms that Villanova will host preliminary round games against Niagara University and Monmouth University. Aside from a broad window of after November 14 and before November 28, days & times are only speculation.

Hartford also revealed their first opponent at the Palestra (11/28) will be NJIT, thus confirming that Niagara and Monmouth will play in the other game in the bracket. If this comes to pass, then the final in that bracket ought to have some local fan appeal as both Niagara and Hartford have ties to Philadelphia. The Hartford head coach, Dan Leibovitz, was an assistant coach at Temple University, under John Chaney. The Purple Eagle squad from Niagara will feature three players from the Philadelphia area. Senior guard Charron Fisher hails from Pennsauken, NJ and played ball at Roman Catholic in Philadelphia. Sophomore guard Tyrone Lewis lived in Levitown, PA and played ball at Truman HS. Bilal Benn, a junior guard played high school ball at Cardinal Dougherty HS in Philadelphia along side of Villanova great Kyle Lowry. Benn later rejoined Lowry and played 2 years at Villanova before transferring to Niagara.

Philly Classic Update: Another One Down

The NJIT Highlanders have released a tentative schedule which confirms their date with Penn State, but also projects a match-up with Towson University, another Philly Classic participant, to be played on November 24. The NJIT schedule suggests the Tigers will visit the Highlanders in Newark, which means Towson will take 2 road games before heading into Philadelphia. I suspect that will not happen, and that NJIT will travel twice. As for the first two rounds, the matchups so far are what I projected in my July 30 post.

2008 Philly Classic -- Possible Matchups

The initial scoop by Jeff Goodman, discussed my earlier post, "The 2008 Philly Classic", identified the Philly Hoops Classic field for the 2008 tournament. Goodman announced the field of eight teams would include Hartford, Niagara, NJIT, Monmouth, Penn State, Rhode Island, Towson and Villanova. I speculated that the two 4 team brackets (I call them "Bracket A" and "Bracket B" for now) would be...

Bracket A:		Bracket B:
Hartford		Niagara
Monmouth		Penn State
NJIT		Rhode Island
Towson		Villanova

Some detective work by a Villanova message board poster, a preseason news story at the Providence Journal, and finally an official announcement from PSU, provides enough information for me to tease out a bit more about the tournament and the first two rounds. If the posters over at the Niagara message board and the Rhode Island message board are correct (note the Niagara poster wrote his/her entry about two months before Goodman wrote his piece...), then we can deduce that the brackets will be...

Bracket A:		Bracket B:
Hartford		Penn State
Monmouth		Rhode Island
Niagara		Towson
NJIT		Villanova

We know from last season's Philly Classic that two teams from one bracket (Seton Hall & Virginia) played their round 1 and round 2 games at home, while two teams from the other bracket (Howard & Loyola College) played their round 1 and round 2 games on the road. The other four teams (Drexel, Navy, Penn & Robert Morris) played one game at home and the other on the road. Teams from one bracket played only teams from the other bracket in those first 2 rounds.

Penn State announced that it will host two games (NJIT and then Hartford) and Rhody has leaked that it will play a home game followed by a road game. A Rhody message board poster identified the home opponent as Hartford and the road opponent as Monmouth. Further, the Niagara poster identified Towson (in Niagara) and Villanova (at the Pav) as the Purple Eagles' two opponents -- that means that the Wildcats will get the first two rounds at home and Towson will have a road followed by a home game. If the posters correctly identified the sequence, then Villanova should play their first round game against Monmouth in the Pav, sometime (early?) in the week of 11/16-11/22. The second game (versus Niagara) would have to be played sometime in the window of 11/20 through 11/25. The Palestra rounds (3 & 4, as pointed out by Deal in his comment to my first post...) will be played on Friday 11/28 and Saturday 11/29. With the caveat that the data provided is correct, the preliminary round matchups look like this:

Round #1			Round #2
Home		Visitor	Home		Visitor
Niagara	vs	Towson	Monmouth	vs	Rhode Island
Penn State	vs	NJIT	Penn State	vs	Hartford
Rhode Island	vs	Hartford	Towson	vs	NJIT
Villanova	vs	Monmouth	Villanova	vs	Niagara

Having a confirmed schedule from Penn State, combined with a pretty good idea from Rhody means all that is needed is a third participant's official schedule to confirm the matchups for rounds 1 & 2.

The 2008 Philly Classic

While scanning a message board last week I ran across a thread that linked to a story posted on Jeff Goodman's Good 'n Plenty Blog. The Villanova-related nugget was located near the bottom of post (why don't some of the Gang of 500 do their Big East Roundup stories in reverse alphabetical order once in awhile?), "Big East Offseason Roundup". Goodman located the field (and dates) for the 2008 Philly Classic, the exempt tournament that Villanova was rumored to have committed to play in for the 2008-09 season. Although Goodman posted last Thursday, I held off on this because the field had been the subject of an Aprils Fools joke on the Penn State athletic department website. The prankster formatted an official-looking announcement that identified (along with Penn State and Villanova...) Duke as one of the eight participating teams. The "announcement" was pulled later that day, but rumors of a Villanova-Duke game persisted for weeks afterward. I have not been able to independently confirm the field that Goodman announced, so the actual field may have other changes before the season opens in November. Goodman list, sorted by RPI, turns out to be:

		Record			Ranking
Team	Conf.	W	L	Pct.	RPI	KenPom
Villanova	BE	22	13	0.629	51	43
Rhode Island	A10	21	12	0.636	107	82
Niagara	MAAC	19	10	0.655	116	153
Penn State	B10	15	16	0.484	157	108
Hartford	AE	18	16	0.529	177	245
Towson	CAA	13	18	0.419	235	229
Monmouth	NEC	7	24	0.226	295	301
NJIT	Indy	0	29	0.000	341	341

Like last season, this year's tournament field has a decidedly local flavor, as all teams are located in the Northeast and New England. While the Palestra no doubt offers the tournament a certain historical cachet, lack of a television contract and a venue with large seating capacity have probably worked to hold down the tournament budget, which in turn has probably worked to limit the pool of potential participants. According to discussions during last year's tournament, the hosting responsibilities will rotated among members of the Big 5.

The original exempt tournaments of the 1980s and 1990s, brought 8 teams to a host facility and played 4 games over a 4 - 5 day period. The Philly Classic follows the format favored by later exempt tournaments like the Legends Classic (and the CBE, etc.). The eight team field will play two rounds at host school locations before coming into Philadelphia to play the last 2 rounds, to be played at the Palestra, over the 4 day Thanksgiving Weekend. Unlike the Legends format results from the preliminary rounds will not affect the seeding of the later rounds. In the inaugural Philly Classic, the organizers seeded the higher ranked (by RPI?) teams, along with Big 5 host Penn, together in the "Independence Bracket", while the other four teams were seeded in the "Liberty Bracket". Liberty Bracket teams played Independence Bracket teams in the preliminary games. Six of the eight preliminary round games were hosted by Independence Bracket teams. If the organizers decide to use the same format for this year's Classic, expect Villanova, Rhode Island, Penn State and Niagara to be bracketed together for the Friday and Sunday games, while Hartford, Monmouth, Towson and NJIT will be bracketed together for their last two rounds.

I think the 2 preliminary round teams that would do the least violence to Villanova's SOS would be Hartford and Towson. Too bad the 'Cats played Hartford last season, a rematch with Leibovitz might be interesting (and given Leibovitz's tenure as an Assistant Coach at Temple) a great idea for local appeal in getting fans out to games in the other bracket...). Monmouth might be a good choice. The (Monmouth) Hawks were 7-24 last season with, like Villanova, a "senior-less" team. They are bound to improve this season. NJIT should be avoided, the Highlanders will be (at best...) only modestly better than last season. Even with improvement however, they will still have an RPI in the 300s.

A point of interest for Villanova fans is that two of the teams in the field, Penn State and Niagara, have former Wildcats on their rosters. Depending on the seeding and results of the first game in Philadelphia, Villanova may well face Andy Ott's (Penn State) and Bilal Benn's (Niagara) new teams. Andy Ott will not dress for any fall games, as he does not become eligible until the end of the fall semester. Nevertheless I am sure Ott and his former teammates will enjoy catching up on old times.