Guest Contributor Ray Floriani: Saint Joseph's at Fordham

by Ray Floriani
EAST RUTHERFORD, NJ - It looked like this might be the day. For a half at least. Fordham jumped out to a 12 point lead at the break before St. Joseph's came back for a 76-70 victory at the Izod Center.

Afternoon at the Izod

The Four Factors:

		FTA
	eFG%	FGA	OR%	TO%
St. Joseph's	57	35	31	12
Fordham	49	54	35	16

The Tale of Two Halves:
The first half...

			Off.
	Poss.	Pts.	Eff.
St. Joseph's	33	31	94
Fordham	32	43	134

The second half...

			Off.
	Poss.	Pts.	Eff.
St. Joseph's	27	45	167
Fordham	32	27	84

The game...

			Off.
	Poss.	Pts.	Eff.
St. Joseph's	60	76	127
Fordham	70	64	109

Have to be impressed the way St. Joseph's came back. With a young team, on the road in the midst of a tough long season, the Hawks showed their will and stayed with it. The possessions show they did not get in a 'helter skelter' affair to rush in trying to cut the deficit. Rather, they took the approach that the final twenty minutes would provide ample opportunities to get the score to a manageable level and then put them in position to make their run.

Three point shooting was a key. The Hawks shot better beyond the arc than inside. The three point shooting came at a 64% rate (7 of 11) the second half. Two point shooting was 5 of 9 (56%). Overall St. Joseph's shot 60% (12 of 20) after going 11 of 31 (36%) the first half.

Both teams cared for the ball very well. Fordham had a slight rebounding edge offensively. Kervin Bristol and Chris Gaston had 10 rebounds each for the Rams.

Beside the increased offensive efficiency on the part of the Hawks, Fordham also struggled the final half as the production of two key players feel a bit. Alberto Estwick had a dozen at the half and Gaston had 8 points 7 boards in the books. The second half saw Estwick garner two points while Gaston had a relatively quiet 6 points 3 boards.

The damage inflicted on Fordham came courtesy of two young guards. Freshman Langston Galloway hit for 25 points while sophomore Carl Jones scored 15. Charoy Bentley, followed a solid performance against UMass, with a solid 14 points (5 of 7 shooting) in 23 minutes of relief. Langston and Jones however, took 43% of their team's shots while producing 53% of the points. They each scored a dozen in that game changing second half.

Fordham huddles before coming out the second half

Crunch Time
The shot chart the last eight minutes (St. Joseph's led 57-55 with eight to go) showed the Hawks scored six field goals. Four were off set offense. Two in transition and the last one on the break came by breaking full court pressure with under two minutes to go. The Rams had four field goals. Two were treys (by Branden Frazier) while the last two were on penetration baskets very late with the Hawks enjoying a two-three possession lead.

Numbers and Notes
Fordham is now 6-17 (0-11 in the A-10). St. Joseph's is 7-17 (2-8). Galloway's 25 points paced all scorers. Frazier and Brenton Butler paced the Rams with 17 points each.

One thing missing from the media room the prior two Fordham games at Izod was coffee. Today it was here, in full glory. Regular or decaf.

Win over Fordham was the Hawks' second straight. They entertain Xavier on Wednesday. Fordham's next game is also with Xavier, on the road February 19th. Win was number 1,500 in St. Joseph's long and tradition rich history.

"At the half I was worried about them (St. Joseph's )
playing harder than us the second half.
And they did." - Fordham coach Tom Pecora

Saint Joseph's Post Game -- Holy War, 2010-11

Holy...Difference of Opinion?
The Hawks of Saint Joseph's held the lead over the Wildcats of Villanova for the first 4:30 of the game, relinquishing the lead briefly to regain it at the 13:53 mark. They would hold it for only 30 seconds more before releasing it for the last time. For the next 33 and half minutes the question was only by how much the Wildcats would win. The answer turned out to be 11, as Villanova won 71-60 and ran their Big 5 record to 2-0 for 2010-11. The Wildcats took a 10 point lead into the break, Mouphtaou Yarou missed a layup at the 0:01 mark that would have given the 'Cats an even dozen.

The second half saw the Wildcats push the lead out to 20 at the 6:38 mark and then go a stone-cold 1-6 from the field with three turnovers to let Saint Joseph's nibble away at the margin on 5-8 shooting.

Mike over at VUhoops.com did the honors with a brief recap. Chris at the Nova Blog ran an open thread, but truth be told even the VUSports Bench Warmers board did not draw many comments. Villanova Viewpoint Publisher has yet to recap, but he did post a detailed history of the series as a preview for tonight's game. Fact over at the Fact on Villanova blog had a completely different take on the series. It is valued only by the over 50 crowd (I confess I did not know the Villanova Viewpoint Publisher was that old...).

The official website posted the official boxscore and the AP wire story, which for the first time in memory offered a mild criticism of the effort with "...Villanova won despite another lousy shooting night and a lackadaisical performance down the stretch. It shot 39 percent, including 7 for 23 on 3s...". The breakdown by halves...

Opponent	Saint Joseph's University
	1st	2nd	Game
Pace	33.9	28.8	62.7
	Offense				Defense
	1st	2nd	Game		1st	2nd	Game
Rating	112.2	114.6	113.3		82.7	111.1	95.7
eFG%	44.4	43.1	43.8		46.6	48.4	47.5
TORate	11.8	24.3	17.6		20.7	10.4	16.0
OR%	39.1	61.9	50.0		22.2	40.0	31.6
FTA/FGA	19.4	41.4	29.2		10.3	12.5	11.5
FTM/FGA	16.7	27.6	21.5		3.4	3.1	3.3
ARate	64.3	90.9	76.0		33.3	38.5	36.0
Blk%	13.9	13.8	13.8		3.4	9.4	6.6
Stl%	2.9	7.0	4.8		12.0	3.5	8.0
PPWS	0.97	0.95	0.96		0.92	0.94	0.93
2FG%	43.5	42.1	42.9		50.0	40.0	44.7
3FG%	30.8	30.0	30.4		27.3	41.7	34.8
FT%	85.7	66.7	73.7		33.3	25.0	28.6
%2FG	52.6	48.5	50.7		64.3	50.0	56.7
%3FG	31.6	27.3	29.6		32.1	46.9	40.0
%FT	15.8	24.2	19.7		3.6	3.1	3.3

The "good" stats get some green highlighting while the "bad" ones get the red treatment. I will go over a few of the high and low points below, but the stat that caught my attention at the break and into the second half (I tracked possessions and Oliver's Four Factors for 10 minutes into the second half) was the pace. At just under 34 possessions for the half the two teams appeared on track (more or less) to get Pomeroy's projected 71 possessions for the game. The second half often yields a few more possessions than the first, especially if the team that is down is capable or pushing the pace. 28-29 possessions was well below the anticipated pace, but consistent with Villanova's very short bench (see Roster Moves at the end) and a strong desire to keep the regular rotation resh at the end of the game. The other stats that jumpted out after the game was the poor shot conversion rate (eFG%) relative to the offensive rating for the team (the Rating -- divide by 100 to compute the points per possession). The paradox is the comparision of those two numbers -- the 'Cats converted shots very poorly "...lousy shooting...", but the nevertheless very strong offensive rating. The heart of the system is shot conversion, so what gives? The next two most important stats, turnover rate and offensive rebounding, are very strong.

Notes & Observations
1. Low PPWSs for the Cats suggest the team was not converting shots nor getting to the line consistently. The low eFG% confirms the low conversion rate, and the lower than expected FTA/FGA in the first half confirms when the 'Cats did not convert from the field, the refs were not bailing them out.
2. The Wildcats had four squad members in double digits, with Corey Stokes leading the team with 19 points on 6-15 (3-9, 3-6) and 2-2 shooting. The senior guard also snagged eight rebounds and accounted for a steal, a block, a dime and an assist.
3. Senior forward Antonio Pena logged his eighth double-double as a Villanovan (and first this season), scoring 14 points on 7-9 (7-9, 0-0) and 0-1 shooting while gathering 14 rebounds (3-11-14) in 34 minutes of play.
4. The second half assist rate (percentage of made field goals came through an assist) was over 90%, extremely high and a radical departure from the days of the "take 'em" offense.

Roster Moves
Sophomore Maurice Sutton is walking with a boot on his right ankle. Official word is that it is sprained, but speculation is that it is fractured. Sophomore Isaiah Armwood was DNP due to back spasms, while freshmen JayVaughn Pinkston was DNQ again. Freshman James Bell warmed up, and followed his minute or two of action in the Tennessee game with 11 minutes of play, off the bench, against the Hawks. Pinkston is apparantly somewhere in an appeals process for his assault citations, though rumors persist that he is done for the year. The rotation tonight was seven players, with everyone of them receiving at least 10 minutes.

Returning Minutes and PWP -- the A-10 Going Into 2011

How Many Bids?
Though speculation at the midpoint of the Atlantic 10's 2010 regular conference season had as many as five, teams "in" or "right side of the bubble" for the NCAA Tournament, only three (Richmond, Temple and Xavier) were eventually invited. Seeded at #5 (Temple), #6 (Xavier) and #7 (Richmond), two of the three exited quickly, but Xavier did manage to go to the Sweet Sixteen where they bowed out to Kansas State after two overtimes. I developed an aerial that mapped the offensive and defensive efficiencies of the conference back in July which strongly suggested the conference had a number of very competitive teams last season. In addition to the three NCAA-bound teams, the conference also sent two to the NITs where Rhode Island ran to the semi-final round (eliminated by North Carolina) and Dayton won it all (beating North Carolina). Two were also invited to the CBI post season tournament, and ironically both were eliminated by the same VCU team that won the championship. George Washington was eliminated in the first round, while St. Louis eliminated three teams (Indiana State, Wisconsin-Green Bay and Princeton) before being eliminated by VCU in the championship series (0-2 in best of three). The aerial below maps returning minutes for the 2011 season each team's overall Pythagorean Winning Percentage (PWP) as determined by their play throughout the season against the conference averages for both. The table below lists the schools alphabetically, with percentage of returning minutes and PWP, along with the difference between the school's percentages and the average for the conference.

	Pct. (n * 100)			Difference (n-Avg)
Team	Min.	PWP		Min.	PWP
Charlotte	72.7	70.7		+7.8	+3.3
Dayton	50.3	91.7		-14.6	+24.6
Duquesne	73.7	56.2		+8.8	-11.1
Fordham	53.2	14.0		-11.7	-53.3
George Washington	75.3	66.5		+10.4	-0.8
La Salle	49.9	52.2		-19.0	-15.1
Massachusetts	78.5	52.1		+13.6	-15.2
Rhode Island	60.7	82.6		-4.2	+15.2
Richmond	68.9	87.5		+4.0	+20.2
Saint Joseph's	53.5	49.4		-11.4	-18.3
St. Bonaventure	58.1	59.6		-6.8	-7.7
St. Louis	82.7	74.4		+17.8	+7.1
Temple	65.9	92.2		+1.0	+25.9
Xavier	69.3	93.7		+4.4	+26.4
Average	64.9	67.3
Std Dev	11.40	22.24

The Atlantic-10's conference-wide PWP average, 67.3, reflects a good out of conference winning percentage versus all opponents. The conference may schedule it's share of cupcakes, but with a conference representative in virtually every early season invitational tournament, not to mention annual home-away series with teams from most of the five "above the red line" conferences, the average PWP is a fair reflection of where the conference ranks in the D1 pecking order. As preparation for a longer look at the A-10's prospects going into the 2011 season, I decided to map each team's PWP and percentage of returning minutes into a scatter chart...

And judging from the distribution of the teams, I would suggest the answer to ESPN's lead-in question (rhetorical most likely, for the headlines) to their Summer Shootaround article (posed again above -- "How many bids?") is "At least as many as 2010, but if not more, then most certainly better seeds" -- if there are no surprises. The scatter chart shows five teams in to the upper right quadrant, where teams that return more than the conference average for minutes and had a higher than conference average PWP last season, are mapped. While the scatter chart is no guarantee of results (everyone still has to play the games, that's the fun of the season, right?), it is a visual that can provide a quantitative perspective as a counterpart to the flurry of predictions. In "above the Red Line" conference, teams in the upper right quadrant generally perform at or better than the previous season (conference record, rank), while teams in the lower left (returning minutes and last season's PWP less than the conference average, a double hit that suggests performance will lag) generally perform at or below their previous season's conference record/rank. The distribution also suggests competition in the Atlantic-10 will be tough next season as so many winning teams return large percentages of their playing time -- teams that won last season return players who know how to win. Questions of talent aside, that should indicate it will be even more difficult for freshmen-led teams to break through next season. There are a number of questions with particular programs...

About Charlotte
When a team that maps into the "Above Average" quadrant has a new coach, it almost always means their former coach moved on to (bigger and better...) things. Not so with the 49ers, who fired the winningest coach in their program's history and turn to a Thad Matta assistant coach to take up the program reins. The fan-base was supportive of AD Judy Rose's decision to terminate Bobby Lutz, and bring in Alan Major as his successor, a response that suggests the desire for change was widespread. That the program suffered no significant post succession transfer losses suggests the players are on board. If Bobby Lutz had moved on to another head coaching job (he landed on the Iowa State staff as an associate head coach, a situation that should benefit both Lutz and newbie Head Coach Fred Hoiberg) and Coach Major had head coaching experience (leading a winning program) before moving over to Charlotte, predicting good things for the 49ers in 2011 would be a no-brainer. As it is, arguments that Charlotte will finish in the A-10's upper division are persuasive. The key for Charlotte will be if Coach Major addresses the 49ers defense (their Achilles Heel last season), find a good successor to the point guard position and avoid the temptation to retool the offense (it was good in 2010).

Dayton & Rhode Island...Coming or Going?
Both teams performed well in the NIT, a tournament commonly believed to be a good stepping stone to the NCAA, especially for the teams that get to New York City. Both programs have, however, seen a good percentage of their rotation minutes (and points) move on. Rhode Island suffered a few disappointments on the recruiting trail, but Coach Jim Baron managed to recoup those losses with a number of mid and late summer recruits. While not a "returning Ram", Dan West does have a year of JUCO ball and should bring a few more points to the back court. Dayton faces a similar loss of (starting & rotation) minutes. Coach Gregory is known for his deep rotation, but having two stellar wings in Chris Johnson and Chris Wright, six additional returning squad members and an MVC transfer guard (Josh Parker from Drake) who practiced with the Flyers last season should make for a good bounce back. The Flyers have additional back court (where they lost quite a few minutes) in Juwan Staten, a freshman who, if recruiting gurus are correct, should be in the thick of the A-10 Rookie of the Year race this season (the Dagger Blog has a worthwhile interview with Staten, if you have the time).

The Situation in St. Louis
Most thought the Billikens dodged a bullet when local prosecutor Jennifer Joyce declined prosecution in a sexual assault case, but a University Judicial Committee has also heard the case and according to reports rendered a decision that the players have appealed. While details of the decision will not be announced until the players appeal has been adjudicated, rumors suggest that the Committee assessed a punishment that included a one year suspension, coupled with a ban from on-campus housing when the players return to school. A school suspension would render the players unavailable in 2011, a huge disruption to the Billiken program, which if true, would drop Coach Majerus' squad into the lower right quadrant with Dayton and Rhode Island.

Saint Joseph's Dream Class
Head Coach Phil Martelli brings the best incoming class of the conference to Hawk Hill this season. Will that group of freshmen be able to reverse the program's fortunes in 2011? They may well be, individually, better than the squad Coach Martelli put on the court last season, but with better competition the Hawks may be hard pressed to match their five conference win mark from 2010.

Observations...
...as I reviewed the table and chart a few points came to mind:
1. The standard deviation for returning minutes was just over 11%. The standard deviation for the PWP was nearly twice that of returning minutes, suggesting there is a rather large gap in the best and worst (as measured by PWP) in the conference. A quick check of the numbers shows that Fordham, at whose variance from the PWP average, -53.3, is more than twice the variance of Xavier's 23.4, the "best" PWP in the conference. Fordham, ranked #304 (out of 347 in Division 1) presents quite a challenge for new Head Coach Tom Pecora. These Rams went 0-16 last season, a mark Coach Pecora should be able to exceed. But Fordham will probably not be competitive for #13 place in the conference.
2. Although he has upped the Bonnies' number of conference wins each year of his tenure, if the conference is as tough as I expect next season, Coach Mark Schmidt may be hard pressed to improve that conference win total (7) in his fourth season in Olean.
3. Massachusetts and George Washington should be interesting conference story lines this season. Both return a lot of minutes in programs that have struggled of late. A more competitive conference race may mean neither team shows improvement in their respective conference won-loss records, though both could actually make progress. Crucial numbers to check would include efficiency differentials (offensive efficiency - defensive efficiency) per Ray Floriani's College Chalk Talk article about efficiency differentials. For the coaching staffs though, the statistic may be too esoteric for results-oriented Athletic Directors.
4. The conference returns an average of (about) 65% of their minutes in 2011, down very slightly from their 2010 returning minutes (about 67%). The standard deviation, at just over 11, was lower than 2010's 13, suggesting there is less variance going into 2011 than there was going into 2010.

Saint Joseph's Post Game: Holy Cow!

'Cats, Hawks...and Zebras
The fans attending the game at the historic Palestra were assured early on that the referees had brought their whistles to the game. The crew flagged the teams collectively for 19 fouls in the 1st half alone. Following common wisdom, Coach Wright pulled players who were whistled for 2 fouls. That strategy put 3 starters, Corey Fisher, Antonio Pena and Maurice Sutton on the bench...along side 6th man Taylor King. The fouls evened out a bit in the 2nd half, though the Joe's outshot Nova from the floor,'Cats went 30-31 at the line to keep pace on scoring.

The official website has the usual AP wirestory, and of course the ever useful boxscore. The breakdown by halves...

Opponent	St. Joseph's
	1st	2nd	Game
Pace	38.2	41.4	79.5
	Offense				Defense
	1st	2nd	Game		1st	2nd	Game
Rating	107.4	135.4	122.0		99.5	123.3	111.9
eFG%	48.6	61.9	53.4		43.5	61.1	51.7
TORate	21.0	19.3	20.1		15.7	24.2	20.1
OR%	48.0	30.0	42.9		26.1	33.3	28.9
FTA/FGA	24.3	147.6	69.0		54.8	77.8	65.5
FTM/FGA	13.5	142.9	60.3		35.5	66.7	50.0
ARate	50.0	72.7	59.3		58.3	84.6	72.0
Blk%	2.7	14.3	6.9		9.7	3.7	6.9
Stl%	16.1	4.9	10.3		12.8	9.5	11.1
PPWS	0.99	1.57	1.26		0.97	1.38	1.17
2FG%	52.2	43.8	48.7		45.0	50.0	46.9
3FG%	28.6	80.0	42.1		27.3	46.7	38.5
FT%	55.6	96.8	87.5		64.7	85.7	76.3
%2FG	58.5	25.0	39.2		47.4	23.5	33.7
%3FG	29.3	21.4	24.7		23.7	41.2	33.7
%FT	12.2	53.6	36.1		28.9	35.3	32.6

The Wildcats don't particularly like playing in the Palestra, despite the collegiate atmosphere and the respect the staff and players have for the traditions of the Big 5. The lighting is tricky and the sightlines can be deceiving at times, almost favoring close-in shoot making to long range shooting. The Historically, shot efficiency at the Palestra has been an issue; seeing an eFG% of 48.6 for the 1st half was not surprising (though a bit above normal), but the 61.9 in the 2nd half was surprising (see orange highlights above). The 'Cats are not usually that efficient at the Palestra. The pace was surprising too. Saint Joseph's averaged 70.4 overall coming into this game. At the Paradise Jam (against BCS competitiion) they took possessions down to 68.5, fairly typical for D1 games so far this season (the average per Ken Pomeroy is 68.6). 79.5 is where Villanova likes to play, leaving little time for Coach Martelli's offense to develop a shot opportunity. The 1st half seemed fairly typical of a Villanova-St. Joseph's game -- offensive/defensive efficiencies were about where one would expect 107.4 vs 99.5 (a good defensive number). Why did the 2nd half turn into a run-n-gun match? After all it did not "feel" like an up-and-down half. I suspect the Palestra may have had a zebra infestation -- quick glance at the FTA/FGA for both teams (see yellow highlight above) shows the Wildcats took about 1.5 free throws per field goal attempt, while the Hawks took 3 free throws for every 4 field goal attempts. The striped ones could not keep those whistles out of their mouths. Note free throws continue to be the second largest component in Villanova's scoring.

Notes & Observations
1. Taylor King logged a career high 20 points, and fell a single rebound short of recording his first double-double. King took a major-impact 38.3% of the squad's shots when he was on the floor, scoring at a very efficient 60.0% rate -- volume and efficiency. He is a sophomore. He is going to be fun to watch the next 3 years. Two first half fouls limited his play to 27 minutes.
2. Antonio Pena missed his 5th double-double by 3 rebounds. Villanova's #4/#5 went 5-8 from the field and 5-6 from the line to score 15 points. He too was limited by 2 1st half fouls, and did a tremendous job on the offensive boards.
3. Reynolds stepped back from volume-shooting, converting 4 of 5 field goals attempts (2-3, 2-2) for an effective field goal rate of 100, but a shot% of only 10.8 -- so how did he record 22 points? The senior guard made Saint Joseph's pay at the line as he went 12-14 from the stripe. Scottie now has, by my very unofficial count, 1765 points. At this pace he should cross the 1800 point line (and pass Gary Buchanan at #10 on the All-Time list) before the end of the month. Expect a "Milestones" sometime in the second week of February, if all proceeds without incident. Savor this time Nova Nation, players like Scottie don't pass this way often. We have been very lucky to have had two in this decade.

Ref Notes
The crew included Tim Higgins, Bryan Kersey and Mike Roberts. The game broke 50 fouls, and challenged the George Mason game for most whistles blown this season, falling 2 short. Some of the fouls called in the last 3:30 (about 5) were change of possession fouls, but made no headway as the 'Cats hit 10 of 10 free throws and maintained their 8 point cushion through the end of the game. In a perverse turn, the crew also called 4 fouls on Villanova during the same 3:30 period. Corey Fisher and Garrett Williamson were DQ'd.

Opposition Research -- An A10 Walkaround

Assessing the Damage
Three members of the Big 5 also share a conference affiliation through the A10, which makes the yearly ebb and flow in that conference of more than passing interest to Wildcat fans (especially the basketball fans). Last season Villanova, by accident of invitational tournaments and scheduling design played nearly ½ of the conference during the OOC part of their season. Along with the 3 Big 5 opponents, Villanova will complete a home-n-home series with Fordham this season, the when and where are still TBD, though November and the CAA Arena in the Meadowlands, NJ have been in circulation for a few weeks. Dayton has been assigned to Villanova's bracket in the Puerto Rico Tip-Off. Though the Wildcats and Flyers are not matched up in their first game, depending on results, the two may meet in their second game. The College Chalk Talk Blog has been running a couple of series of interest in the off season. Their 2 part "Damage Assessment" series provides a quick summary of key losses to each program, packaged with an assessment and explanation. Dayton, Fordham and La Salle are covered in "Part 1". For Dayton (expected to contend for the A10 title this season if Gary Parrish's early summer Top 25 Plus 1, which ranks Dayton at #17 proves accurate) and La Salle losses are "minimal" (smallest impact rating). Dayton, according to the summary, "has arguably the best forward in the league to help make up for..." the departing player. That forward, Chris Wright, was listed among the Honorable Mentions on Dick Vitale's All Rolls Royce Team in July. College Chalk Talk also ran a "5 Questions" style interview with Assistant Coach Jon Borovich. Borovich provided some background on the Flyers' incoming class, a few of Dayton's returning players (with a comment about injured pg Rob Lowry's status) and expectations for the 2010 season. CBSsportsLine's Team Report says Lowry will be back for this season, but the Flyers still need some outside scoring.

The assessment for Fordham is "significant", the return of Jio Fontan, an A10 All-Rookie and All-3rd Team'er the only event that saved the Rams from a "total" (the worst impact rating) damage assessment. As the Rams lost two guards through transfer at the end of the 2009 season, Fordham denied Fontan's request for a release and touched off a controversy that brought comments and press statements from his parents, his High School Coach (Bob Hurley of St. Anthony's), a few Rutgers players (former St. Anthony's teammates, with Rutgers rumored to be his destination) and bloggers from New Jersey and metropolitan New York. Fontan joined the Puerto Rican U19 team (with Rutgers' #2 guard Mike Rosario) and played in the FIBA U19 Championship in New Zealand, giving everyone space to return to their corners and assess their options. The Rams bring in 6 more freshmen this season, in what increasingly looks like -- at best -- a slight improvement over last seasons' 3-25 campaign. Head Coach Dereck Whittenburg has to feel some heat going into this season.

Damage Assessment for the Explorers is also minimal which, combined with the arrival of consensus A10 preseason Rookie of the Year Aric Murray, puts expectations very high for the senior-led team. The summer started with good news (for La Salle) as Philadelphia native Earl Pettis decided to transfer from Rutgers and sit the 2010 season before joining the Explorers for the 2011 season. Senior forward Mekongo Mbala will spend the first part of August competing in the FIBA Africa Championship with the Cameroon National Team.

Damage assessments for the latter part of the A10's alphabet revealed "significant" damage for both St. Joseph's and Temple. The Joe's, coming off of a 17-15 season are, staggered by the loss of A10 (and Big 5) Player of the Year Ahmad Nevins, who will continue his career in Spain next season (the 6-9 forward signed with Manresa in the ACB League) and without a step-in replacement for their front court. Also departed is point guard Tasheed Carr, a transfer who put in his last two years with the Hawks. While the CBS Team Report notes that Coach Phil Martelli may have found replacements, the entering class will replace losses (to some degree), but add no more depth than the Hawks have had for the past several seasons. According to Coach Phil Martelli, who also sat for a "5 Questions" interview, the Hawks will compensate for the loss of Nivins by spreading the shooting responsibility and putting more motion in their offense. With a raw pace of 65.2 the Hawks were ranked #219 out of 344 DI teams by Ken Pomeroy last season. He looks to Garret Williamson and Darrin Govins to step into the leadership vacuum left by Nivins and Carr. Opening their renovated (and expanded) field house to host more on campus games should be a morale booster.

Like St. Joseph's, Temple loses their best (and the A10 champion) scorer, along with a senior center and their point guard. According to CBS' Team Report, Coach Dunphy has some good players coming back and others coming in (even the College Chalk Talk bloggers believe the Owls will finish near the top of next season's A10), but, like the Joe's, Temple may go through the season with a shallow bench. In his 5 Question Interview Coach Dunphy fielded questions about rising sophomore Juan Fernandez, an Argentine pg who has been compared to Temple great Pepe Sanchez. When asked about "the critical stat" for the Owls he answered turnovers. If shooting efficiency does step back from last season (with a team eFG% of 51.5, the Owls were ranked #88 in DI by Ken Pomeroy), limiting turnovers (with a TO% of 18.9%, the Owls, ranked #77 in 2009, are doing pretty well already).

Late Additions
I posted this walkaround on 8/14, but in the meantime, ESPN published an extensive update on the conference on the 19th. A detailed look at the entire conference, it appears that Fran Fraschilla also believes Dayton will dominate the conference. The second game in Puerto Rico, should both the Wildcats and Flyers advance from their first round game, could loom large for later in the season. Fraschilla also sees the Owls and Explorers finishing in the upper division, suggesting those two will provide good games for the 'Cats in December.

Rivalries -- The Big 5

A City Tradition
I first learned about the Big 5 when I was a freshman at Villanova. My roomate, a native of Trenton, New Jersey and a die hard Phillies/Eagles fan, was a huge fan of The City Series. And little wonder. If the rest of the country had difficulty seeing a college basketball outside of the campus gym (NCAA finals & the UCLA/Houston game of 1966 excepted) fans of the Big 5 saw many of their series games televised throughout the Philadelphia media market, one of the innovations introduced with the inception of the series back in the 1950s. The series was approaching its peak years, still flying under the national sports radar. Lacking an "outsider's perspective" may have been a mixed blessing as Philadelphia fans developed a fondness for many of the rivalries' more passionate traditions -- the signs and pranks (good), the chant-counter chants (very good) and the confetti and streamer blizzard that celebrated the first basket of the game (very bad). The "1st Basket Celebration" required a time out to clear the debris off the Palestra floor. The fans stubbornly clung to this tradition until the NCAA instructed referees to assess a technical "delay of game/hazardous playing conditions" on the team whose fans tossed the confetti. Even then one or two "T"s had to be assessed before that "tradition" passed into the ages.

While bound by a renewable contract, the five schools entered into this quasi-conference playing arrangement in an era before the wholesale rise of conferences in the Northeast. Only the University of Pennsylvania belonged to an all sports conference in 1954, though St. Joseph's would join the MAC later in the 1950s.

Series Standings, 1955-2009
I reviewed and compiled these standings, using the records over at the University of Pennsylvania archives and Records Center, in addition to the media guides for the five schools (La Salle, Penn, St. Joseph's, Temple and Villanova). The record, compiled by an unacknowledged archivist, recorded the dates, scores, attendance and a short capsule for every one of the Big 5 games from 1955 (the first season) to 2000. Through the end of the 2008-09 series the teams have played 200 games apiece in the series, the composites:

	La Salle	Penn	St. Joe	Temple	Nova	Wins
La Salle	----	24	20	16	23	83
Penn	26	----	16	17	14	73
St. Joseph's	30	34	----	25	22	111
Temple	34	33	25	----	24	116
Villanova	27	36	28	26	----	117
Losses	117	127	89	84	83

	Composite
	W	L	Pct.
La Salle	83	117	0.415
Penn	73	127	0.365
St. Joseph's	111	89	0.555
Temple	116	84	0.580
Villanova	117	83	0.585

Ironically, Penn owns the worst overall winning percentage in the series, but the Quakers also have the best single decade winning percentage during the full round robin periods -- 0.725, earned for their 29-11 record compiled 1971-80. Over the course of that decade, those Quaker teams went to eight NCAA postseason tournaments, finished #1 in the big 5 six times and won eight Ivy League titles. The late Chuck Daly coached those teams from the 1970-71 season through the 1976-77 season, compiling a 125-38 (0.767) record. Note that Temple posted a 0.792 winning percentage during the period 1991-2000 on a record of 19-5. Most of that decade saw the Big 5 teams play a reduced (2 game) round robin in which the opponents/match ups were rotated. Villanova is however, on the verge of equaling (if not besting) both of those records. The Wildcats teams of 2001-02 through 2009-09 have compiled a 29-7 (0.806) record. If they lose all 4 games (perish the thought) next season, they will do no worse than tie the Quaker's 1971-80 record, while going 3-1 (or better) will translate into a winning percentage of 0.800 (or 0.825). If the Quakers have the lowest winning percentage, it is the Explorers who hold the dubious distinction of holding no advantage among the series rivals. La Salle finds itself on the losing side of each of their Big 5 series. La Salle (see table above) is Penn's saving grace.

Passing the Baton
The Hawks dominated the series in the period 1955-1970, piling up a winning percentage so significant (0.700) that it took nearly 2½ decades of mediocre ball (a 0.450 winning percentages overall) to bring St. Joseph's back to the rest of the field. An o'fer record in series games during the 1994 season opened the door for the Temple Owls & John Chaney to pass the Hawks. Their 0.450'ish winning percentage stalled the Hawks, but Temple under Coach Chaney posted a sizzling 33-11 record from 1982-83 (his first at Temple) to 1993-94 (when the baton passed from Hawk Hill to North Broad), an impressive 0.788 winning percentage. The Owls tenure atop the Big 5 ended this past season, a product of (as much?) rebuilding as the Owls transitioned from the Chaney Era to the Dunphy Era, as Villanova's record setting (2001-09) winning pace.

At a Glance
I have juxtaposed few odds and ends of interest in the tables below...

	Rivalries
	Nemesis				Goat
		W	L	Pct.		W	L	Pct.
La Salle	Temple	16	34	0.320	Nova	23	27	0.460
Pennsylvania	Nova	14	36	0.280	La Salle	28	22	0.560
St. Joseph's	Nova	22	28	0.440	Penn	34	16	0.680
Temple	[1]	24	26	0.480	La Salle	34	16	0.680
Villanova	Temple	26	24	0.520	Penn	36	14	0.720

Note [1] -- Both St. Joseph's and Villanova have 26-24 (0.520) records versus Temple.
As mirror programs, note that La Salle does not have a >0.500 record versus any of the Big 5 members, while Villanova does not have a <0.500 record versus those Big 5 members. Given their standings (and proximity in the Big 5 standings) it is hardly surprising that Villanova is a nemesis to 3 programs and Temple is nemesis to 2 programs. Odd then, that La Salle has had such (relative) success against Nova. The Villanova-Penn series is, by the way, the most lopsided in the City Series.

	Decades
	Best				Worst
		W	L	Pct.		W	L	Pct.
La Salle	[2]	19	21	0.475	1991-00	8	16	0.333
Pennsylvania	1971-80	29	11	0.725	1981-90	8	32	0.200
St. Joseph's	1961-70	25	15	0.625	1971-80	17	23	0.425
Temple	1991-00	19	5	0.792	1971-80	19	21	0.475
Villanova	1981-90	24	16	0.600	1971-80	19	21	0.475

Note [2] -- La Salle recorded an identical 19-21 (0.475) record in both the 1961-70 and 1981-90 decades.
The historical competitiveness of the series is such that each program has had (at least) one <0.500 decade, while also having (La Salle excepted) at least one >0.500 decade. Temple & Villanova can boast of a single sub 0.500 decade each, hardly surprising that their "Worst Decade" (along with St. Joseph's) would coincide with Penn's "Best Decade". St. Joseph's, not quite as fortunate as Temple and Villanova, suffered through a second sub 0.500 decade, 1991-00, albeit given the abbreviated round robin, the Hawks' record (11-13) yielded a 0.458 winning percentage.

Rivalries

We come from St. Olaf, we sure are the real stuff.
Our team is the cream of the colleges great.
We fight fast and furious, our team is injurious.
Tonight Carleton College will sure meet its fate.
Um Yah Yah! Um Yah Yah!
- St. Olaf College fight song

Gasoline...and a Match?
No question the students of St. Olaf consider the (Carlton College) Knights their rival. While I believe the animosity is mutual, I have yet to find a reciprocal set of lyrics in a Carleton fight song. That may be due, however, to the Carleton student body's obsession with securing ownership of a stolen bust of German philosopher Carl Schiller. The Villanova Wildcat's fight song does not single out a particular opponent. Nor as far as I can tell, have any opponents honored the 'Cats with a fight song reference.

Over on the Nova Nation message boards this past spring the subject wandered from rivals to lopsided series. The consensus was that Rutgers might be Villanova's goat, but I was not sure the series was "substantial" enough to warrant the term rivalry. I did however, wonder about that series and others, knowing there has been a long (and one or two) lopsided series among Nova's Big 5 rivals, not to mention a gem or two buried in the history books, after all, Villanova has records going back to 1921. I decided to take a look at the 2008-09 Media Guide...

Familiarity Breeds...(Contempt)?
I began with the thirty or so schools that Villanova has played most. Two facts were apparent as I surveyed the list
1. A few series stretch back to Villanova's earliest days as an NCAA program.
2. Not a lot of games were played in any series. The St. John's series, for example (most games played with Villanova), logs 101 games as of 2009 in a series that goes back 88 (or so) seasons. Oregon over in the PAC-10 conference for example, played (through 2006) 323 games with cross state rival Oregon State (a series that dates back to 1903), and 275 and 266 games with interstate rivals Washington and Washington State respectively (again, both series date back to the early 1990s). Long conference affiliations with Stanford, UCLA and USC have produced series that number 122 (from 1920), 96 (from 1937) and 95 (from 1956) respectively. Big Ten rivals, those in the SEC and the Big 12 have routinely logged series numbers similar Oregon (and their PAC-10 conference mates).

The lack of games is a feature common to many schools in the Northeast. Unlike their counterparts west of the Appalachian Mountains, teams of the Northeast did not affiliate through conferences until relatively late. Until the mid/late 1970s (when CBS paid very large broadcast fees to the NCAA for the exclusive rights to broadcast the tournament, but insisted that all invitees had to accept), most series among Northeastern schools were negotiated as a series of individual home-n-away contracts. Arrangements like the Philadelphia City Series (the Big 5) and the St. Bonventure-Niagara-Canisius (the Little 3) series were the exception, not the rule. Consequently many programs from the Northeast show a similar pattern to their series -- a small number of longstanding (frequently played) series, usually about 1/3 of the school's "most often played" list, with about half of that list made of up schools whose series boasts less than 40 games over 8 or more decades.

	Record				Series
Team	Gms	W	L	Pct.	First	Last	Span
St. John's (NY)	101	43	58	0.426	1923	2009	86
Seton Hall	96	60	36	0.625	1921	2009	88
Providence	83	49	34	0.590	1936	2009	73
Temple	81	42	39	0.519	1921	2008	87
Boston College	77	53	24	0.688	1946	2006	60
Georgetown	66	27	39	0.409	1922	2009	87
St. Joseph's	66	42	24	0.636	1921	2008	87
Syracuse	64	30	34	0.469	1946	2009	63
Connecticut	59	32	27	0.542	1941	2009	68
Pittsburgh	59	32	27	0.542	1960	2009	49
La Salle	58	32	26	0.552	1934	2008	74
Pennsylvania	56	39	17	0.696	1922	2008	86
Duquesne	50	25	25	0.500	1923	1994	71
St. Bonaventure	39	21	18	0.538	1925	1979	54
West Virginia	38	20	18	0.526	1938	2009	71
Princeton	37	22	15	0.595	1943	1991	48
Rutgers	32	24	8	0.750	1932	2009	77
Notre Dame	31	17	14	0.548	1970	2009	39
Niagara	30	20	10	0.667	1923	2008	85
Canisius	29	20	9	0.690	1926	1994	68
Muhlenburg	28	18	10	0.643	1923	1961	38
Loyola MD	24	20	4	0.833	1927	1983	56
Rider	24	23	1	0.958	1936	2006	70
Miami (FL)	23	13	10	0.565	1992	2004	12
Bucknell	22	14	8	0.636	1927	2007	80
Scranton	22	18	4	0.818	1927	1965	38
North Carolina St	22	10	12	0.455	1930	2007	77
St. Francis PA	21	19	2	0.905	1940	2000	60
Manhattan	20	9	11	0.450	1922	2002	80
Xavier	20	16	4	0.800	1952	2006	54

It comes as no surprise that all of the top 12 "most played" teams are current (green) or former (red) members of the Big East Conference or Big 5 (yellow) affiliates. No coincidence that the first twelve teams listed have a current or past affiliation with the Big East Conference or participates in the Philadelphia City Series (the Big 5). The influence of conference is apparent in the Miami (FL) series, a matchup that began and ended with Miami's "just about a decade" membership in the Big East. The teams have not maintained the series, indeed given the distances, the differences in student bodies and institutional missions (and histories), the lack of contact should not surprise.

For Auld Lang Syne...
Villanova's list still reflects a bit of basketball history from the 1940s and 1950s. Muhlenburg and Scranton were early opponents who the Wildcats played more regularly during the late 1930s and throughout the 1940s. This was the same time period when Al Severance, concerned about the growing influence of gamblers in Madision Square Garden and the Philadelphia Convention Center, eschewed playe dates in those venues in favor of campus-based play dates. The consequence was the loss of those opponents (St. John's, Temple, La Salle and St. Joseph's) who used those facilities as a "second" home court. The Muhlenburg Mules were hardly a step down in competition however, having been NIT participants several times during the 1940s. Both Scranton and Muhlenburg left Division 1 during the 1950s/60s as the conferences they belonged to reclassified to D3 and D2 respectively. Villanova and Penn agreed to play a number of double headers in Penn's on campus arena, the Palestra, for the 1950 season. The experiment was successful enough to to catch the eye and interest of the three other city schools, and serve as the precursor to the Big 5. The Dukes, Bonnies, Purple Eagles and Griffens shared a rivalry with the Wildcats that in most cases date back to the earliest days of the program. Those series were sustained over the course of decades, and especially for the Dukes and Bonnies, were competitive throughout. Changing conference affiliations and the growth of D1 basketball spelled the end to those annual matches.

Competitors & Goats
I resorted Villanova's 30 Most Played Opponents (below) by Villanova's series winning percentage. This is one of the few tables where, from a competitive standpoint, being in the middle is better than being at either end...

	Record				Series
Team	Gms	W	L	Pct.	First	Last	Span
Rider	24	23	1	0.958	1936	2006	70
St. Francis PA	21	19	2	0.905	1940	2000	60
Loyola MD	24	20	4	0.833	1927	1983	56
Scranton	22	18	4	0.818	1927	1965	38
Xavier	20	16	4	0.800	1952	2006	54
Rutgers	32	24	8	0.750	1932	2009	77
Pennsylvania	56	39	17	0.696	1922	2008	86
Canisius	29	20	9	0.690	1926	1994	68
Boston College	77	53	24	0.688	1946	2006	60
Niagara	30	20	10	0.667	1923	2008	85
Muhlenburg	28	18	10	0.643	1923	1961	38
St. Joseph's PA	66	42	24	0.636	1921	2008	87
Bucknell	22	14	8	0.636	1927	2007	80
Seton Hall	96	60	36	0.625	1921	2009	88
Princeton	37	22	15	0.595	1943	1991	48
Providence	83	49	34	0.590	1936	2009	73
Miami (FL)	23	13	10	0.565	1992	2004	12
La Salle	58	32	26	0.552	1934	2008	74
Notre Dame	31	17	14	0.548	1970	2009	39
Connecticut	59	32	27	0.542	1941	2009	68
Pittsburgh	59	32	27	0.542	1960	2009	49
St. Bonaventure	39	21	18	0.538	1925	1979	54
West Virginia	38	20	18	0.526	1938	2009	71
Temple	81	42	39	0.519	1921	2008	87
Duquesne	50	25	25	0.500	1923	1994	71
Syracuse	64	30	34	0.469	1946	2009	63
North Carolina St	22	10	12	0.455	1930	2007	77
Manhattan	20	9	11	0.450	1922	2002	80
St. John's (NY)	101	43	58	0.426	1923	2009	86
Georgetown	66	27	39	0.409	1922	2009	87

Interesting that those series where Villanova holds the greatest advantage are the least frequently played. I was surprised to see Villanova held an advantage that large over Xavier. While the two schools played 11 games in the 1950s and 1960s, the last regular season game was the 1973 season-ending matchup at Xavier. The last two meetings were a post season tilt during Villanova's NIT championship run in 1994 and a Wildcat loss to the X-men at the 2006 Paradise Jam. That Rutgers is Villanova's least competitive Big East opponent (South Florida, with 3 losses excepted) is hardly surprising, but Penn, a Top 25 All Time ranked program as Villanova's easiest (by far) Big 5 opponent should trigger a few head scratches.

When Does a Series Become a Rivalry?
1. Locality isn't required, but it helps -- St. Olaf and Carleton are both located in Northfield, MN. Bragging rights for Northfield may seem like small stakes, but in the dead of winter Northfield may seem like the universe. It is only 15 miles from Bethlehem, PA (Lehigh) to Easton, PA (Lafayette College). Is New England big enough for both Providence and Boston College (I gave preference to a conference mate). Notre Dame and USC have managed to stoke a (football) rivalry that stretches halfway across the continent, but it has to be easier if the rival is across town (like USC & UCLA; Cincinnati & Xavier) or within traveling distance (Seton Hall & Rutgers).
2. Contending for something of value raises the stakes -- and the passions. Villanova and Georgetown contended for a National Championship 24 years ago. That single game has become a reference point for both teams (especially when they meet and both squads are contending for conference honors), but the passion has not been sustained over the decades. Like many "failed relationships", it may be a matter of bad timing -- the Hoyas have tended to be down when the 'Cats are up, and visa versa (most of the time). Despite a promising, 7-6 pre-Big East start to their series, Villanova has compiled a passion-dampening 0.409 winning percentage against the Hoyas (worst of any of their Big East conference mates). The Thompsons have been heck on the Wildcats.
3. Sibling Rivalries -- are often the most heated. Our Civil War generated passions for a century after its conclusion, quite unlike World War II, after which the US entered into alliances with Germany, Italy and Japan within a decade after the conclusion of hostilities. Both Carleton College and St. Olaf are ranked in the Top 50 among Liberal Arts colleges (Carleton holds the decided edge in rankings, which may explain why St. Olaf makes the direct reference while Carleton students feign greater interest in a dead German philosopher) and draw their students from the same ethnic groups and geographic areas. The same generally holds for the "L"s in Pennsylvania. The Temple-Villanova series may be, based on winning percentages, the most closely contested of all of the Big 5 series, but it is the Villanova-St. Joseph's series that carries the name "Holy War". A socio-economic breakdown of St. Joes's and Nova's student bodies shows that those two schools draw from largely the same groups in largely the same geographic areas of the Middle Atlantic region. Nothing stings like the taunts from your brother (or sister).

Tracking Ray Floriani...

Frequent guest contributor Ray Floriani is spreading the word about possession-based statistics throughout the world of D1 basketball. Over at the Rush the Court Blog Ray employed a technique developed by Basketball Prospectus blogger John Gasaway to rank the conference's eleven teams by the differential of each team's offensive & defensive efficiency. The posting (titled "Checking in on the...NEC") demonstrates that Mount St. Mary's 11-5 record is no fluke. Sacred Heart may have the better offensive efficiency, but the Mount has the larger differential (and better record). Defense does matter. Rush the Court has, by the way, extensive coverage and analysis on the Providence's upset of Pittsburgh last night.

Ray applied the same technique for an update/analysis posted an update of the Atlantic 10 Conference over at the College Chalktalk Blog. Ray observed that success in the A10 tournament last season was linked to a positive efficiency margin (EM). Which may translate into good news for Villanova's Big 5 brethren Temple and St. Joseph's.

St. Joseph's Post Game: Expectations

Dwayne Anderson's first start in the 2008-09 season has been a shock. Good to see him back and not a moment too soon...

The Official website published Mike Sheridan's Post Game Notes, which are particularly interesting. The box score breakdown by halves...

Opponent	St. Joseph's
	1st	2nd	Game
Pace	29.0	28.5	57.4
	Offense				Defense
	1st	2nd	Game		1st	2nd	Game
Rating	89.7	115.9	102.4		120.8	73.8	97.8
eFG%	46.4	47.5	46.9		66.0	42.5	55.6
TORate	17.2	14.0	15.6		17.3	28.2	22.7
OR%	23.5	25.0	24.1		20.0	20.0	20.0
FTA/FGA	0.0	80.0	33.3		8.0	35.0	20.0
FTM/FGA	0.0	70.0	29.2		8.0	20.0	13.3
ARate	63.6	44.4	55.0		85.7	42.9	71.4
Blk%	10.7	0.0	6.3		8.0	0.0	4.4
Stl%	10.3	3.5	6.9		3.5	14.1	8.7
PPWS	0.93	1.20	1.06		1.35	0.90	1.14

Half-time Adjustments...
The team shot almost as badly in the second half as the first (see above), but they managed to improve their overall offensive rating and beat the Joes. How'd that happen exactly (given how badly they shot the ball...)? The first order of business was to cut the turnovers (but not by much), and then get after the missed shots on their end (again the improvement was marginal). Oh, and get to the line. The Wildcats had no FTAs in the first half. That is very unusual. They improved significantly in the second half. Note that every 5 FGAs translated into 4 trips to the line. And in a game that offered a total of (about) 58 possessions for each team, those trips to the line, though not great in number (16 FTAs) became 14 converted shots and more than 4 times the winning margin.

Observations
1. Offensive rebounding numbers are eye grabbing, but for all the wrong reasons. This might have been the worst offensive rebounding night of the season for the 'Cats. Dante has consistently been a dominant force on the offensive boards (Pena tends to clean up on the defensive boards...), but not against St. Joseph's where he was held to 2 ORebs. Dwayne Anderson, usually great support on the boards, was very quiet too. The defensive boards by contrast, were terrific. Villanova was able to hold St. Joseph's to 1 in 5 misses, possibly the best rebounding percentage of the season.
2. Dwayne Anderson's return to the starting lineup yielded a relatively productive night offensively as he contributed 10 points, an assist, a block and 2 steals in 31 minutes of play. A very nice return.
3. The scoring options were Scottie, Dante and Dwayne. Cunningham and Reynolds split nearly 50% of the shots and possessions among themselves (when they were on the floor together), as Dwayne was the third option. Corey Stokes, normanlly the third option was very quiet, playing only 21 minutes total. The "normal second wave", Shane, Reggie and Antonio were either ineffective though trying (Clark and Redding) or marginalized in the offense (Pena).
4. Fisher struggled again. In a 15 minute run he took 3 shots (all missed) and had 3 turnovers to 2 assists. He chipped in a single rebound, an area where he has improved over the past few games, but committed 2 personal fouls.

Ref Notes
Another low fouling game, complements of the crew of Jim Burr, Karl Hess and Mike Roberts. This is a bit unusual for Burr and Hess, who tend to be tougher on Villanova's opponents in prior seasons. This is the smallest number of fouls called yet this season. Small consolation to the Hawks, who saw Wildcats get to the line amost twice as often as they did (16 vs 9). And given the small number of possessions (ie scoring opportunities) those 14 converted free throws were decisive.

Roster Notes
Villanova -- Nothing negative to report thankfully.
1. Dom Cheek, senior #2 guard out of St. Anthony's Prep in Jersey City, NJ has decided to join Maalik Wayns, Mouph Yarou, and top-15 forward Isiah Armwood to don the Blue and White for Villanova next year in what is likely the best recruiting class in Villanova's history. Add Duke transfer Taylor King and red shirt front court player Maurice Sutton, making next season's Wildcats a team brimming with scoring options and athletic players.

Post Game: St. Joseph's(PA) -- The Hits Keep Coming...

Let's Go Nova's analysis of the St. Joseph's(PA) game, "Implosion", triggered a lively set of exchanges in his comments section. Get over and join in if you have time. As for the rest of the Villanova blogshere, the rage vented post game in the earlier losses is largely expended. After a heartfelt plea to beat the Joes posted on Monday morning, the I Bleed Blue and White Blog, in an episode of psychic disconnect possibly, posted a quick Syracuse game eyewitness report early Tuesday evening. And then went quiet. Hmmm...someone might want to check the dorms and see if those guys are ok. DRE Hoops Blog posted a very long (for the web) essay on his thoughts about the team's 5 game slump. Like the rest of the Nova Nation, he was stunned by the scope and degree of the losses (5 in a row, double digit losses each, quality of the competition) and has begun, as have many other fans, to consider thoughtfully (and without anger) what has gone wrong and why. I appreciate the effort he put into his essay, and hope that the problems, as he suggests, are correctable over time. I just don't know if lack of leadership can explain how a team with three elite point guards can lose 33% of it's possessions in a single half (see below). The breakdown by halves...

Opponent	St. Joseph's(PA)
	1st	2nd	Total
Pace	33.2	27.3	60.5
	Offense				Defense
	1st	2nd	Total		1st	2nd	Total
Rating	78.0	104.3	90.0		136.3	119.2	128.6
eFG%	42.3	48.0	45.1		68.2	54.0	60.6
TORate	33.0	21.6	27.8		18.2	18.6	18.4
OR%	38.9	43.8	41.2		33.3	42.9	38.5
FTRate	26.9	32.0	29.4		86.4	24.0	53.2
FTMRate	15.4	20.0	17.6		68.2	20.0	42.6
ARate	30.0	36.4	33.3		66.7	54.5	60.9
Blk%	19.2	12.0	15.7		9.1	4.0	6.4
Stl%	18.0	0.0	9.8		9.1	7.4	8.4

The first half/second half adjustment is clearly in the stats, but like the Rutgers and Syracuse games, it is too little too late. As with the Syracuse game, it is clear the team did not push the pace in the second half. Catching up is difficult when the number of opportunities is (relatively) smaller from half-to-half. I was a little surprised the 'Cats could not, Cunningham aside, do a better job on the offensive boards right from the beginning. While breaking down the first half gamelog I noticed that Drummond and Cunningham had between them, 2, maybe 3 putbacks. The team however had eleven possession-ending missed field goal attempts. Dante did secure 5 offensive boards for the entire game, and (not coincidentally?) shot 6-8 from the field. That was, by far, the best offensive showing among the 'Cats (eFG 75.0, PPWS 1.50). The Hawks shut both Fisher and Reynolds down as their numbers (eFG% -- 28.6 & 37.5; PPWS -- 0.57 & 0.86, respectively) demonstrate clearly. In addition, Scottie had 3 turnovers while Fisher had 5.

Odds and Ends...
1. Malcolm Grants "official" line was 0:52 in the first half. For the plus/minus conscious, he was -5 over 2 appearances.
2. Dwayne Anderson was (for the first half) the best plus/minus player, who over 8:08 minutes of play (3 separate appearances) was -3.