Random Thoughts After First Friday

As I Was Scanning the Scoreboard, Twitter, Messageboards, etc
A progessional obligation kept me away from the TV set (ie ESPN) as Division I resumed with a vengance Friday night. Though the season "started" with a dribble of games -- mostly campus site games for early season invitational tournaments -- Friday brought a whopping 131 games. I have not checked to see if all those games involved two D I opponents, we can guess that nearly 246 of Division I's 348 teams (69.5%) saw action. After streaming the Villanova-Monmouth game (a 106-70 rout) I started a wider search for comments/scores. Sifting through the scoring summaries and catching a few tweets, I found a handful of games that caught my eye...

What a Difference a Year Makes (part 1)
Big 5 fans followed the progress of Saint Joseph's freshmen class from a very uneven start in 2010-11 to a brief florish close the season. Western Kentucky, a Sun Belt Conference power over the years, thumped the Hawks 98-70 to open last season at the Hagan. This season the Hawks opened in Western Kentucky and returned the favor as they beat the Hilltoppers by 11, 72-61 in Bowling Green, KY. Guards Carl Jones and Langston Galloway did their thing (16 and 19 points respectively with three assists and five steals), but not seeing sophomore forward Ron Roberts in the starting lineup was a bit surprising (Hofstra transfer Halil Kanacevic got the nod and logged eight minutes before fouling out). Roberts did get a 31 minute run, recording his first double-double of the season -- 10 points and 11 rebounds. The really good news was C. J. Aiken's 35 minutes. The 6-9 center blocked five shots, scored 12 points, and drew only three fouls. Coach Martelli's charges will see Georgia Tech Thursday night in the Charleston Classic. This will be a reunion of sorts, as the Yellow Jackets are now coached by former Dayton head coach Brian Gregory. It should be a great opportunity for the Hawks to draw some national attention.

Oops, Wrong First Impressions...
An extremely enthusiastic tweet from Chris DiSano of College ChalkTalk about Rhode Island's freshman forward Jon Holton (and a follow up about senior guard Jamal Wilson's awesome 38 point outburst) sent me on a search for the Rhodi-George Mason boxscore. The game went into overtime with the Runnin' Rams dropping a two point (90-92) decision on the road. My first check on possessions had the game (overtime included) at around 92 possessions. I was wrong (I'll blame the unofficial box score for that...yeah, that's the ticket, it was the unofficial box score...), the calculation from the official box score puts the possessions at 87...which means my first thought -- Rhode Island needs more offense -- was off base. The Runnin' Rams gave up 1.06 points per possession to the Patriots, and handed the CAA another win over the A-10 (a problem come Selection Sunday). Granted Coach Baron is going to have a reliable second and third option, Wilson is not going to shoot 13-22 (1-2, 12-20) to go with an 11-12 from the line every night, but he has options now in his front court with senior Orion Outerbridge and sophomore Nikola Malesevic if the two forwards can exercise better judgement on their three point attempts. Combined they hit 3-14 from beyond the arc (nine points on 14 attempts), while shooting a combined 4-8 inside (eight points on eight attempts). Wilson by the way, posted a 61.4% eFG with a 1.39 PPWS, both will be noted elsewhere when I file my first report. Holton will need to work on his shot (2-11 from the field, 7-10 from the line), but he will see minutes because he is a rebounding monster -- he snagged a stunning 34.7% of the available defensive rebounds when he was on the court. URI might be able to get a bit more offense when Auburn transfer Andre Malone and Virginia transfer Billy Baron become eligible late next month. For now Coach Baron may have to rely on freshman Mike Powell to handle the point guard duties. For Powell GMU was something of a baptism of fire as he shot an underwhelming 3-11 from the field while handing out six dimes (nearly negated by five turnovers).

Wow, What a Difference...(part 2)
Saint Louis fans suffered through a multitude of basketball-related problems in 2010-11. I wondered going into the season how the Billikens would react to the log jam in the back court and whether they would find an offense to go their their lock-down defense (the Billikens were ranked #47 by Ken Pomeroy last season). Majerus is not reputed to be an especially "user friendly" coach, so losing one or more of the freshmen back court players before the season started would not have been too surprising (sophomore Christian Salecich did transfer out during the summer). The Bills struggled against the Carleton Ravens on their Canadian Tour this summer, losing red shirt junior guard Kwamain Mitchell at the end of their fourth exhibition, not the best sign going into the fall semester. Friday night they demolished Tennessee State of the Ohio Valley Conference, 71-37 (yup, the defense is back) before 6,400+ fans at Chaifetz. My numbers (unadjusted) show a 61 possession game (typical of Majerus), which means the defense is in mid-season form -- they held Tennessee State to a measly 0.60 points per possession), but the offense is still a work in progress. Mitchell started and coupled a horrific 3-11 outing with 40% shot rate in his 27 minute (66.7% of the playing time) run. Mitchell will get better (or take a seat on the bench, Majerus is not the most patient coach) to be sure. Conklin, along with sophomores Mike McCall and Jordair Jett compensated with very efficient shooting nights (combined they went 10-15 from the field). Limiting a team to 37 points is impressive. Saint Louis is headed off to the 76 Classic later this month, with a matchup versus Villanova a distinct possibility.

Speaking of Defensive Showcases
Buzz Williams' Marquette squad shut down Mount St. Mary's Friday night too, handing the Mountaineers a 54 point loss (91-37) to open the season. The offensive/defensive display was impressive, as the two played for about 71 possessions, thereby scoring about 1.28 points per possession, while limiting Mount St. Mary's to 0.58 PPP. The starting five Jae Crowder, Chris Otule, Darius Johnson-Odom, Vander Blue and Junior Cadougan (note the three guards?) did a nice job of distributing shots and possessions, which reminded me a bit of the Syracuse team from 2010. Blue in particular struggled late last season, but had an efficient outing (a 62.5% eFG on 5-8 shooting from the field, which computes to a 1.25 PPWS). Cadougan struggled a bit with his shot (4-9, 44.4% eFG), but made his double-double the hard way, 10 points to go with 10 dimes in 24 minutes of play.

Amidst the Blowouts
The Big East finished off their eight opponents -- home games all -- Friday night by an average of 25.3 points. Two exceptions to the exhibition of BCS muscle-flexing came in Morgantown and Piscataway. True West Virginia led from the opening tip, but Coach Bob Huggins' squad had to withstand a furious closing rush by the Golden Eagles to perserve a 78-71 win. The Scarlet Knights, like West Virginia, broke on top early, but needed free throws at the end to hold off Big Green. Coach Mike Rice's squad struggled on offense, converting possessions-to-points at a 0.98 rate (about 62.7 possessions). The shot conversion (50.0% eFG%) was fine, but turnovers (a 25%+ rate) undermined the effort. A 40.9% assist rate was not especially impressive either. If this is a representative game (at least until the freshmen catch up), expect the front court, powered by junior Dane Miller and sophomore Gilvyda Baruta to provide the points. Among the freshmen two guards, Jerome Seagears and Eli Carter posted nine points apiece on relatively efficient shooting. West Virginia played a predictably high 73 possession game with seniors Kevin Jones and Darryl Bryant providing a good deal of the offense. Surprisingly the staff started freshman Jabari Hinds at the point, and the 5-11 spark plug did not disappoint, scoring nine points to go with five assists. Freshman forward Miles Keaton also got the starting nod (a message to Kevin Noreen?) and snagged two rebounds and five steals in 21 minutes of play.

A New Blog: Secondary Break

Chris DiSano over at College ChalkTalk has spun out a less structured version of his basketball gazette called Secondary Break. The blog has a handful (about 15 actually) of ongoing contributors, including frequent vbtn contributor Ray Floriani. Ray posted the second in his series about possession-based stats -- points per possession with both an explanation on how to calculate the stat and why that is more reliable than a per capita stat like average points per game, for identifying potent offenses.

As the name suggests, Secondary Break specializes in quick takes on "just behind the news cycle" topics ranging from player spotlights to team backgrounds, from stats and analysis to below-the-surface looks at recent news. A link for Secondary Break will go into the "Notable Blogs..." list at the left, and I intend to check in regularly with those guys.

Balancing an Unbalanced Schedule -- A10 Conference Opponents 2011

Conference Match-ups, Agendas & Objectives
In the days before 14 and 16 team super conferences, a typical conference had no less than eight and no more than 10 members. The "regular conference" season consisted of each team playing every other conference member twice, once at home and once on the road (at the other member's home). These were often referred to as "balanced schedules" because (at least in theory) each team played every other team in the least and most favorable circumstances. As 11 and larger conferences became the norm schedule makers were faced with the challenge (or opportunity?) to develop schedules that met objectives other than "balance" (each team plays every other team twice, etc.). The schedules invariably involve play at least one game with every other team in the conference, and often two (mirror) games with one or more opponents. The mirror games provide the conference with opportunities to...
1. Develop attractive TV packages. Conference elites are matched to provide good TV story lines and interest beyond conference/team fan-bases. The 2006 Big East mirrors (the first season with 16 teams) matched Connecticut, Louisville and Villanova in a mini-round robin that was supposed to settle the #1, #2 and #3 seeds for the Big East Tournament. Louisville however lost three starters to injury and was hammered by their mirror opponents.
2. Preserve traditional rivalries. As Chris De Santis over at College Chalk Talk pointed out in his article "Win, lose or draw: A look at the A-10 pairings..." from last month, "... schools and coaches are not allowed to request partners. Schools are permitted to 'protect' one rival...", which allows Dayton and Xavier (cited by Chris) to renew their annual series, even as the conference's Big 5 Trio (La Salle, Saint Joseph's and Temple) typically have multiple home-away games, with the game that counts in the City Series (until recently) played in the "neutral" Palestra (Penn's home court).
3. Limit travel. The northeastern-based conferences (the Atlantic 10 & Big East in particular) have very large footprints. For the A10 Conference, which relies largely on D1 basketball to underwrite the varsity championships awarded by the conference in 21 separate (men's and women's) sports, stretches across eight states and the District of Columbia, from New England, south to Charlotte, North Carolina and west to St. Louis, Missouri, travel expenses are a considerable part of the Athletic Department budget. Biasing toward nearby opponents for mirror games can limit travel, especially during the winter months.

Atlantic 10 Announces Conference Opponents...Early?
Having covered the A10 for Rush the Court last season, a posted note over at Soft Pretzel Logic drew my attention. A bit early for schedule announcements perhaps, but I thought with more than a season's worth of comparative data, and a history of fair predictive capabilities using the Pythagorean Winning Percentage (among other stats), I wanted to see if applying a few quantitative measures might provide insight into the match-ups and how the regular season might play out. I also wanted to try out a variation of the Pythagorean Winning percentage that filtered for home games only and away games only.

The Mirrors -- Welcome to the A10 Alan Major
Reviewing the mirrors, it occurred to me that travel and distance may have been a criteria, since mirror games account for 37.5% of the conference schedule. Richmond has George Washington and Charlotte (and a Philadelphia-based team). Rhode Island has Massachusetts, a Philadelphia-based team and St. Bonaventure. Dayton has X, St. Louis and Duquesne, and so on. I averaged Pomeroy's adjusted efficiency ratings, and sorted from the highest Pythagorean winning percentage (most difficult -- on average -- opponents) to lowest (least difficult -- on average -- opponents) the match-ups sorted out in a decidedly "unbalanced" way...

	Pythag WP
	Mirrors	Repeats?
Charlotte	0.826	Same as 2009
St. Louis	0.805	Day & Duq
Xavier	0.789	Dayton only
Fordham	0.781	URI & Bona
Saint Joseph's	0.773	TU & UMass
Duquesne	0.752	Same as 2009
Dayton	0.748	Same as 2009
La Salle	0.703	Same as 2009
George Washington	0.701	Same as 2009
Richmond	0.621	Char & GWU
Massachusetts	0.613	Same as 2009
St. Bonaventure	0.509	Duq & FU
Rhode Island	0.419	FU & UMass
Temple	0.384	LSU & SJU
Average	0.673

Pomeroy's conference-wide average for the A10 last season was 0.7114, so 0.673 suggests the schedule maker came fairly close to balancing the mirrors conference-wide, but the standard deviation (0.139...) from most difficult (Charlotte) to easiest (Temple),suggests that travel may have taken priority over balance. Temple's Fran Dunphy will no doubt include this schedule maker on his Christmas card list for 2011, as all of Temple's mirror opponents, Fordham, La Salle and Saint Joseph's, are not only very close but, having logged a collective conference record of 9-39, struggled in conference play. I have no doubt (regression to the mean...) that Fordham will be good enough to win at least one conference game next season. I suspect it won't be one of those games with Temple. Perhaps the scheduler believes the 55 year old City Series rivalry between La Salle, Saint Joseph's and Temple will make their games with Temple more competitive than the Hawks' and Explorer's collective 9-23 record suggest. The large number of all-repeat mirrors is surprising -- six conference teams (43% of the conference members) will play the same three opponents as 2009. If the bias is distance, the repeats make sense. Tannenwald's lamented "...Still, I wonder if someone in Newport News could have figured out a way to get all the Big 5 teams to play each other twice." could be solved by the three Big 5 Brethren without the active intervention of the schedule maker if each used their single "protected opponent" option (per Chris DiSano) in a round robin fashion. La Salle "protects" Saint Joseph's; Saint Joseph's "protects" Temple; Temple "protects" La Salle.

Home & Away Opponents -- Different Strategies & Circumstances
An elite conference team would most likely want to host their single meeting with other elite teams, and take the weakest conference opponents on the road if possible. For those teams a higher Pythagorean WP for home opponents would make sense. A team struggling to break the conference upper division however would most likely prefer to have it most "beatable" opponents at home and largely concede games with the elite teams by taking them on the road. An "activist" scheduler might want to use home-road game pairings to "rebalance" the schedule from the mirror games, and give a truer picture of the relative strengths/weaknesses of the members. Or the conference may simply flip the home-away opponents from the previous season (home opponents become road opponents, etc.)...

Team	Home	Away
Charlotte	0.210	0.680
Dayton	0.391	0.538
Duquesne	0.499	0.424
Fordham	0.320	0.681
George Washington	0.439	0.639
La Salle	0.309	0.706
Massachusetts	0.518	0.554
Rhode Island	0.436	0.710
Richmond	0.415	0.532
Saint Joseph's	0.406	0.551
St. Bonaventure	0.369	0.739
St. Louis	0.233	0.538
Temple	0.463	0.659
Xavier	0.314	0.616
Average	0.380	0.612
StDev	0.090	0.087

I used the raw efficiencies to calculate a Pythagorean winning percentage for home and away games. Charlotte will host Dayton, Fordham, La Salle, Saint Joseph's and Massachusetts next season, in addition to their mirrors. Of that group, only Dayton had a Pythagorean Winning Percentage above 0.500 for it's conference road games last season. The 49'ers road slate by contrast, will be fairly challenging, as they face Duquesne, Rhode Island, St. Bonaventure, St. Louis and Temple (in addition to their mirror), all of whom, excluding St. Bonaventure, had a >0.500 Pythagorean winning percentage in their home conference games. Massachusetts drew the most challenging set of guests (Dayton, Duquesne, George Washington, Richmond and Temple -- 0.518), though Duquesne (Charlotte, George Washington, Rhode Island, Temple and Xavier -- 0.499) and Temple (Charlotte, Rhode Island, Richmond, St. Bonaventure and St. Louis -- 0.463) It does not appear the schedule maker simply flip home and road games however, as only Dayton, Duquesne and La Salle have no repeat home/road opponents. Every other team has at least one (Rhode Island has four, George Washington, St. Louis and Xavier have three) repeat home/away opponent. For the teams that will compete for top seeds in Atlantic City next March (Dayton? Richmond? St. Louis? Temple? Xavier?) the strong guest/weak host match-ups are not there, though for teams that may celebrate a middle seed in Atlantic City (Fordham? La Salle? St. Bonaventure?) the weak guest/strong host match-ups appear to be in place.

Limitations, Exclusions & Exceptions...
The conference received three bids to the NCAA Tournament, two bid to the NIT (both Rhode Island and Dayton advanced to the Final Four, Dayton won) and three bids to the CBI (St. Louis advanced to the Finals), a good (but not great...) season relative to the conference's history. Regression to the mean suggests that Temple, Xavier and Richmond will not be quite as good, nor Fordham and La Salle quite as bad. Sequence matters too, La Salle was better in December, when Ruben Guillandeaux, Yves Mekongo Mbala and Kimmani Barrett were healthy, than in February.

Thanks to Jonathan Tannenwald over at Soft Pretzel Logic for his post on the A10's home/away opponents for next season late last month. Jon's interest, largely all matters Big 5, writes for Philly.com and blogs about Big 5 and Ivy League sports.

A New Blog: A10 By the Numbers

Hmmm, That Sounds Familiar
The bloggers over at College Chalk Talk decided to "go national" with their site (though they have assured readers they will maintain an A10 "perspective"), which seems to have created a niche for the NIT-ology blogger (apologies ahead of time Mike if I have your last name wrong...), Mike Scullin to start up a side project -- A10 by the Numbers. The blogger promises "statistical analysis of atlantic 10 conference basketball", a topic I have also had a growing interest in this season. Mike has put up 4 posts this month, 2 on the post season odds for A10 teams and 2 on team-specific issues (Duquesne and Saint Joseph's) that are particularly good.

If your interests run to the A10 and stats, A10 by the Numbers is worth a long look.

Opposition Research -- An A10 Walkaround

Assessing the Damage
Three members of the Big 5 also share a conference affiliation through the A10, which makes the yearly ebb and flow in that conference of more than passing interest to Wildcat fans (especially the basketball fans). Last season Villanova, by accident of invitational tournaments and scheduling design played nearly ½ of the conference during the OOC part of their season. Along with the 3 Big 5 opponents, Villanova will complete a home-n-home series with Fordham this season, the when and where are still TBD, though November and the CAA Arena in the Meadowlands, NJ have been in circulation for a few weeks. Dayton has been assigned to Villanova's bracket in the Puerto Rico Tip-Off. Though the Wildcats and Flyers are not matched up in their first game, depending on results, the two may meet in their second game. The College Chalk Talk Blog has been running a couple of series of interest in the off season. Their 2 part "Damage Assessment" series provides a quick summary of key losses to each program, packaged with an assessment and explanation. Dayton, Fordham and La Salle are covered in "Part 1". For Dayton (expected to contend for the A10 title this season if Gary Parrish's early summer Top 25 Plus 1, which ranks Dayton at #17 proves accurate) and La Salle losses are "minimal" (smallest impact rating). Dayton, according to the summary, "has arguably the best forward in the league to help make up for..." the departing player. That forward, Chris Wright, was listed among the Honorable Mentions on Dick Vitale's All Rolls Royce Team in July. College Chalk Talk also ran a "5 Questions" style interview with Assistant Coach Jon Borovich. Borovich provided some background on the Flyers' incoming class, a few of Dayton's returning players (with a comment about injured pg Rob Lowry's status) and expectations for the 2010 season. CBSsportsLine's Team Report says Lowry will be back for this season, but the Flyers still need some outside scoring.

The assessment for Fordham is "significant", the return of Jio Fontan, an A10 All-Rookie and All-3rd Team'er the only event that saved the Rams from a "total" (the worst impact rating) damage assessment. As the Rams lost two guards through transfer at the end of the 2009 season, Fordham denied Fontan's request for a release and touched off a controversy that brought comments and press statements from his parents, his High School Coach (Bob Hurley of St. Anthony's), a few Rutgers players (former St. Anthony's teammates, with Rutgers rumored to be his destination) and bloggers from New Jersey and metropolitan New York. Fontan joined the Puerto Rican U19 team (with Rutgers' #2 guard Mike Rosario) and played in the FIBA U19 Championship in New Zealand, giving everyone space to return to their corners and assess their options. The Rams bring in 6 more freshmen this season, in what increasingly looks like -- at best -- a slight improvement over last seasons' 3-25 campaign. Head Coach Dereck Whittenburg has to feel some heat going into this season.

Damage Assessment for the Explorers is also minimal which, combined with the arrival of consensus A10 preseason Rookie of the Year Aric Murray, puts expectations very high for the senior-led team. The summer started with good news (for La Salle) as Philadelphia native Earl Pettis decided to transfer from Rutgers and sit the 2010 season before joining the Explorers for the 2011 season. Senior forward Mekongo Mbala will spend the first part of August competing in the FIBA Africa Championship with the Cameroon National Team.

Damage assessments for the latter part of the A10's alphabet revealed "significant" damage for both St. Joseph's and Temple. The Joe's, coming off of a 17-15 season are, staggered by the loss of A10 (and Big 5) Player of the Year Ahmad Nevins, who will continue his career in Spain next season (the 6-9 forward signed with Manresa in the ACB League) and without a step-in replacement for their front court. Also departed is point guard Tasheed Carr, a transfer who put in his last two years with the Hawks. While the CBS Team Report notes that Coach Phil Martelli may have found replacements, the entering class will replace losses (to some degree), but add no more depth than the Hawks have had for the past several seasons. According to Coach Phil Martelli, who also sat for a "5 Questions" interview, the Hawks will compensate for the loss of Nivins by spreading the shooting responsibility and putting more motion in their offense. With a raw pace of 65.2 the Hawks were ranked #219 out of 344 DI teams by Ken Pomeroy last season. He looks to Garret Williamson and Darrin Govins to step into the leadership vacuum left by Nivins and Carr. Opening their renovated (and expanded) field house to host more on campus games should be a morale booster.

Like St. Joseph's, Temple loses their best (and the A10 champion) scorer, along with a senior center and their point guard. According to CBS' Team Report, Coach Dunphy has some good players coming back and others coming in (even the College Chalk Talk bloggers believe the Owls will finish near the top of next season's A10), but, like the Joe's, Temple may go through the season with a shallow bench. In his 5 Question Interview Coach Dunphy fielded questions about rising sophomore Juan Fernandez, an Argentine pg who has been compared to Temple great Pepe Sanchez. When asked about "the critical stat" for the Owls he answered turnovers. If shooting efficiency does step back from last season (with a team eFG% of 51.5, the Owls were ranked #88 in DI by Ken Pomeroy), limiting turnovers (with a TO% of 18.9%, the Owls, ranked #77 in 2009, are doing pretty well already).

Late Additions
I posted this walkaround on 8/14, but in the meantime, ESPN published an extensive update on the conference on the 19th. A detailed look at the entire conference, it appears that Fran Fraschilla also believes Dayton will dominate the conference. The second game in Puerto Rico, should both the Wildcats and Flyers advance from their first round game, could loom large for later in the season. Fraschilla also sees the Owls and Explorers finishing in the upper division, suggesting those two will provide good games for the 'Cats in December.

A New Blog: Big Ten Geeks

Villanova by the Numbers guest poster Ray Floriani dropped me a note Monday (Bonnies fans be sure to check out Ray's post, "Statistical Analysis: St. Bonaventure" over at the College Chalktalk Blog) about a new Big Ten Conference basketball blog, Big Ten Geeks.

Back in 2005 blogger John Gasaway cranked up the Big Ten Wonk Blog with the promise to produce a (nearly) daily report (during the season of course) on the state of the Big Ten basketball conference. Alternating straight reporting with analysis powered by Dean Oliver's possession-based statistics and occasionally adapting John Holloway's NBA stats to the NCAA, filtered with a perspective that many admire but few can emulate, Gasaway kept the party going for three seasons. The Wonk shuttered his blog officially on April 3, 2007 as he moved on to a series of collaborations with Ken Pomeroy over at The Basketball Prospectus. Josh & Mike picked up the torch last month and have rekindled the BT Wonk's mission to provide statistical insight on the teams of the Big Ten. They may not have Gasaway's flare (who does?), but they definitely have the numbers. I have been reading Josh's team-by-team previews and come away impressed with his grasp of the details and his ability to work with the stats to provide insight. Those Wildcat (Villanova here, not Northwestern...) fans who are interested in a good heads-up on the Nits, a possible opponent in The Philly Classic next November might want to check out The Geek's take at "2008-09 Preview: Penn State".

I have added these guys to my "Notable Blogs" sidebar, and I wish them the best of luck!