An Atlantic 10 - Big East Challenge? Already Happening

The Under Reported Conference Challenge
"Something I'd love to see moving forward in the non-conference portion of schedules? A Big East-Atlantic 10 Challenge." I caught that tweet from a hungry -- yet humble -- sports writer several Sundays ago as I monitored my twitter feed while watching Massachusetts take Fordham behind the shed to the tune of 90-52. ESPN, CBS and Fox Sports, through the power of made for television events (power conference challenges, early season invitational tournaments and gimmick-inspired match-ups like the "Aircraft Carrier" and now-defunct "Bracket Buster Weekend" games), have transformed the out conference portion of the season from untelevised David and Goliath games in which an "above the red line" host pummels a "below the red line" visitor (and then settles the penalty clause for breaking the NCAA-mandated home-away contract with a check) into a series of games that capture the excitement of the post season in the weeks before conference play begins.

I wrote about this organic rivalry several years ago, and though conference realignment has changed the details, the general points remain the same...
1. The conferences share a common geographical footprint that stretches from Rhode Island (URI and PC) in the east, south to the Washington DC metro area (Georgetown, George Washington, Richmond and VCU) and west (through the Rust Belt) to the Mississippi River Valley and it's tributaries (St. Louis and Creighton).
2. Many of the teams continue historic rivalries initiated because of their shared geography. While there are exceptions (*cough* Georgetown *cough*), most, as the table below confirms, continue to play their neighbors even though conference commitments take a large portion of their schedules.
3. Many of those schools located in the upper mid-west and south share conference affiliations.
4. Early season invitational tournaments have brokered matches that two neighbors have not, on their own, created. The two conferences had 30 members who played 37 games back in 2010 (and 50+ games, including the post season, in the snapshot I took in 1975) when I wrote about the rivalry last. Conference realignment has reshaped both conferences. Today they have between them 23 teams (10 in the Big East, 13 in the Atlantic 10) that include four entirely new faces (Creighton, Butler, George Mason and Virginia Commonwealth) and 11 teams departed (Charlotte, Cincinnati, Connecticut, Louisville, Notre Dame, Pittsburgh, Rutgers, South Florida, Syracuse, Temple and West Virginia), but the table below suggests that number of games played aside, the power relationship remains unchanged.

	But	Cre	DPU	GTU	MU	PC	SHU	SJUNY	Nova	XU	A10
Day
Duq
Fdm								SJUNY			0-1
GMU
GWU		GWU			MU						1-1
LSU						PC			VU		0-2
UMass						UMass					1-0
URI						PC					0-1
Rich
SBU
SJUPA		Cr							VU		0-2
SLU
VCU				GTU							0-1
BE		1-1		1-0	1-0	2-1		1-0	2-0

The number of common games has declined as the membership of each conference has changed, but the trend over the past five years (and the snapshot from 1975 seems to affirm), that the Big East schools tend to win the larger portion of the games; 2011 excepted (of the 21 games played the Big East record was 11-10 or 0.524) the Big East tends to win at least 60% of the games. 2013-14 is an outlier only in the smaller-than-usual sample and the high winning percentage (10 games, 8-2 so far). Of course the post season will yield at least one-to-two additional matchups.

Observations:
1. If the last three invitations are any indication, A-10 Commissioner Bernadette McGlade's realignment strategy will have the conference expand to the south. With the addition of Xavier, Butler and Creighton, the Big East appears open to moving westward should Commissioner Val Ackerman and the membership decide to expand beyond 10.
2. The regions into which each conference expands will decide whether their pool of common games grows or diminishes.
3. When the Hoyas joined the Big East in 1979-80, they allowed three of their most active local rivalries, with American (1938-39), George Washington (1906-07) and Maryland (1907-08) to lapse. George Washington (1981-82) and Maryland (1979-80) were discontinued in the early 1980s, while the American series continued until 1986-87 before taking a 20 year hiatus. Restarting the series with George Washington, relatively competitive at 54-39, would likely raise DC interest in college basketball. Reviving the Maryland rivalry would give the Big East an annual game with the Big Ten.
4. As the rankings and head-to-head records suggest, both conferences would be better served with conference challenge showcases with better matched conferences. Fans may find a Big East-Pac-12 challenge more competitive for both conferences while the Atlantic 10, clearly at the head of that group of conferences consisting of the C-USA, Mountain West, West Coast and Missouri Valley might be better served with a conference challenge with the West Coast Conference, a showcase that could give both conferences exposure on the other coast.

Wash, Rinse, Repeat (pt 2) -- The 2012 Atlantic-10 Home and Away Slate

Flipping 2011 Home/Away Opponents
In addition to carrying the mirror opponents (home/away series opponents) from 2011, the Atlantic-10 schedule maker reversed the venues for the single game opponents. Charlotte visited Duquesne, Rhode Island, St. Bonaventure, Saint Louis and Temple in 2011. The 49ers will host those teams as single game opponents in 2012. Does this balance their schedule over the two season period? Remember that virtually no teams return their entire rosters season-over-season. The average of returning minutes in the A-10 next season (to this point) is about 66%.

Home & Away According to Pythagoreas & Seed...
I decided to take the average of the home and away Pythagorean Winning Percentage (PWP) -- conference games only -- for each team's set of opponents. I excluded mirror opponents (covered in the previous post) for this the compilation to focus on those match-ups that would not allow a return engagement (in the 2012 regular season). I also took the average A-10 conference tournament seed for each set of opponents, to determine if each team was facing an "average" set of opponents in the home or away setting -- the conference has 14 members, the "average seed" is 7.5...

	Non-Mirror Opps.
	Home		Away
Team	PWP	Seed	PWP	Seed
Charlotte	0.522	4.9	0.358	7.8
Dayton	0.341	7.4	0.531	6.8
Duquesne	0.319	9.3	0.614	6.6
Fordham	0.438	6.5	0.587	6.8
George Washington	0.526	7.3	0.565	8.5
La Salle	0.436	6.8	0.488	7.1
Massachusetts	0.334	9.3	0.711	6.3
Rhode Island	0.555	7.8	0.546	8.4
Richmond	0.370	9.1	0.710	7.4
Saint Joseph's	0.236	8.8	0.691	4.6
St. Bonaventure	0.538	6.8	0.555	8.5
Saint. Louis	0.477	5.5	0.379	7.9
Temple	0.557	7.9	0.553	9.5
Xavier	0.497	8.0	0.500	9.0
Avg.	0.439	7.5	0.556	7.5
Std.	0.099	1.3	0.103	1.2

As the table suggests, there is a sharp contrast in the PWPs among visiting teams and hosts. George Washington, Rhode Island, St. Boanventure and Temple appear to have the strongest slate of non-mirror opponents, and Temple looks as if their slate of road opponents may be marginally easier than their slate of visitors (though the Owls did catch a huge break on their mirror opponents). Looking over the PWPs for road games, it appears that Massachusetts, Richmond and Saint Joseph's have their work cut out for them. For the Minutemen and Spiders, this could be problematic, as the UMass returns 60% of their 2011 scoring (points) and Coach Chris Mooney's squad returns just over 31% of theirs.
Different Strategies for Different Circumstances
A common wisdom approach to scheduling strategy might want to schedule the stronger opponents into the home arena, thereby using the home court advantage to maximum effect, while taking the weaker opponents on the opponents' home court with the notion they could be beaten in either location. For teams whose objective is to break out of the conference's lower division (or cellar...) however a counter intuitive strategy might be the better choice. Hosting weaker opponents would maximize the chances of winning conference games, while conceding the road loss to the conference's stronger teams. Very few coaches would embrace a strategy that concedes losses even before the season even starts, but as a practical approach to accumulating wins, programs like Charlotte and Fordham have few options, at least until they rebuild their programs. How do the non-mirror match-ups compare when looking at those two different approaches?

Looking for Wins...Any Wins
Rookie Coach Archie Miller may have caught a break from the schedule maker. Dayton graduated All Conference forward Chris Wright, while also losing freshmen Juwan Staten (West Virginia) and Brandon Spearman (Indian Hills CC) to transfer. The depleted Flyers return 58.4% of their minutes and 58% of their scoring. Drawing hosting duties for Charlotte, George Washington, La Salle, Massachusetts and Rhode Island without having to return the favor. Rhode Island at this point, is in line to return less than 25% of their 2011 minutes in 2012. Miller should be able to post a winning home record among these five opponents. The seed versus PWP spread for the opponents visiting the UD Arena in 2012 is interesting, about average for seed, but a comparatively low road PWP. The spread suggests those teams did not travel well in 2011.

Richmond, like Rhode Island, will have only 40% of 2011's minutes available going into 2012, a (mirrors excluded) home slate of Dayton, Fordham, La Salle (again!), Massachusetts (ditto!) and Temple should help build some confidence (and post wins) for the Spiders of tomorrow. Their (non-mirror) road slate however, should be a bit more challenging -- Duquesne, Rhode Island, St. Bonaventure, Saint Louis and Xavier. Should Coach Mooney's squad post a winning record versus those five, Richmond will be in a good position for post season consideration.

Massachusetts slumped at the end of their 2011 conference schedule, dropping their last regular season game to winless (in conference play) Fordham and then losing their A-10 first round game to Dayton. Lining up Charlotte, Fordham, Saint Louis, St. Bonaventure and Xavier for home dates should help to establish a winning home record in conference play. True as visitors the Minutemen will be hard pressed to win more than one game from their road slate -- Dayton, Duquesne, George Washington, Richmond and Temple -- but if they hosted those five would they win more than (say...) two?

Fordham's home slate -- Charlotte, Dayton, George Washington, La Salle and Xavier -- should provide the Rams with a few more winning opportunities than their road slate -- Duquesne, Massachusetts, Richmond, Saint Joseph's and Saint Louis. Returning a nucleus of Chris Gaston, Branden Frazier and Alberto Estwick provides Coach Tom Pecora with an opportunity to up Fordham's conference win total in 2012.

Making a Statement
St. Bonaventure has bettered their conference record in each of Coach Mark Schmidt's four seasons, finishing in the upper division 2011. With Andrew Nicholson a rising senior in 2012, the future maybe now, and the Bonnies drew a fairly balanced (in a PWP sense...) slate of (non-mirror) home and away opponents. Assembling a winning record at both home and on the road against those opponents would certainly serve notice the Bonnies are back, and probably put them in the conversation for a post season bid, preferably to a tournament whose name starts with an "N".

On paper George Washington appears ready to shop for more permanent digs in the A-10's upper division. Next season's (non-mirror) home and away slate seems fairly balanced per the average PWP (and note the average seed is consistent with the PWP). The question is whether new Coach Mike Lonergan can motivate the squad to perform in the face of a challenging road slate.

Temple drew the only slate that would fit the bill for an elite team -- face better teams (Dayton, Duquesne, George Washington, Massachusetts and Xavier) at home, lesser teams (Charlotte, Rhode Island, Richmond, St. Bonaventure and Saint Louis) on the road. The seed versus PWP contrast for the road opponents suggests that lineup, like George Washington's, were stronger in front of the home crowd than on the road.

Counter Programming?
On the heels of an unexpectedly good (slump at season's end excepted) season, Duquesne would probably have been better served with a stronger slate of visiting teams than Fordham, La Salle, Massachusetts, Richmond and Saint Joseph's. While there may be a measure of home crowd entertainment value in running up the score on Fordham or Massachusetts, but wide margins may (again?) obscure weaknesses in the Duke program.

Xavier drew a surprisingly balanced slate of single game opponents for both home (Fordham, George Washington, La Salle, Massachusetts and Temple) and the road (Duquesne, Rhode Island, Richmond, Saint Joseph's and St. Bonaventure). Note the home slate has an average seed within the standard deviation, while the road slate seed is just below the range established by the standard deviation (suggesting the Musketeers' hosts are better at home than on the road).

Caveat Emptor
Consider that...
1. The rosters are still taking shape -- at this point it appears that Saint Louis will return 92.8% of their minutes from the 2011 season (plus Kwamain Michell). Last June the Billikens were projected to return 82.7% of their minutes, but only 54% were on the roster when the season started. There are a variety of reasons why players, post NBA draft deadline, do not return to school, and every Atlantic-10 team has lost experienced minutes in June and later in the off season.
2. Timing can make a difference -- Duquesne ran up an 8-0 record through the first half of their 2011 A-10 slate against teams that finished the season with a collective 50-78 (0.391) conference record. Only two of those teams (Temple and George Washington) finished on the upside of 0.500 in their conference games.
3. Coaching changes can affect team dynamics, or not -- Charlotte's Alan Major had a rough rookie season as head coach, while rookie head coach Chris Mack's Xavier squad won the Atlantic-10 regular season title in 2010. George Washington's Coach Lonergan has six years of experience directing Vermont's program (and seven directing D3 Catholic University) before taking over at George Washington; the Colonials should show improvement over their 2011 conference record (health providing...). Dayton's Archie Miller, a long-time assistant, but looking at his first season in charge of a Division 1 program, may have problems matching departed coach Brian Gregory's 7-9 record.

Wash, Rinse, Repeat -- The 2012 Atlantic-10 Conference Pairs

The Flip Side of 2011
Though at least one fan blog hinted at the pairings for the 2012 Atlantic-10 Conference regular season back on June 1, the conference did not officially release the pairings until June 6. Rather than build the conference mirror opponents and home/away games from scratch for 2012 (or roughly based on the 2011 conference results), the schedulemaker apparently decided to keep the 2011 mirror opponents and flip each team's 2011 home and away opponents for 2012 -- Saint Louis played Fordham, George Washington, Richmond, St. Bonaventure and Temple on the road in 2011, so they will host those teams at Chaifetz Arena in 2012. Was this a backhanded attempt at a balanced (over a two year period) schedule? For those interested in the complete listing, visit the Conference announcement here.

Fair and Balances?
I had noted last June when looking over the Atlantic-10 conference pairings that a balanced schedule may be only one of many objectives a conference schedulemaker may have satisfy...and a lower priority objective at that. Since the conference kept the same mirror opponents for 2012 as 2011 for each team, I decided to take the average of the conference Pythagorean Winning Percentage (PWP) for each team's mirros and compare them. Mirror games constitute 37.5% of each team's 16 game schedule. These pairings can provide a team with a big advantage (or a huge challange)...

	Mirror Opponents
	PWP	Team
Charlotte	0.735	GWU, Rich, XU
St. Louis	0.726	Day, Duq, XU
Dayton	0.724	Duq, SLU, XU
Saint Joseph's	0.670	Mass, Rich, TU
Fordham	0.612	URI, Bonas, TU
La Salle	0.582	GWU, Mass, TU
Duquesne	0.475	Day, Bonas, SLU
St. Bonaventure	0.453	Duq, Ford, URI
George Washington	0.438	Char, LSU, Rich
Xavier	0.380	Char, Day, SLU
Massachusetts	0.353	LSU, URI, SJU
Rhode Island	0.308	Ford, Mass, Bonas
Richmond	0.305	Char, GWU, SJU
Temple	0.208	Ford, LSU, SJU
Avg.	0.498
Std. Dev..	0.171

"Protecting" a rival clearly still holds for the coming season, as Xavier and Dayton will renew their in state rivalry, Temple will face both Big 5 rivals (La Salle and Saint Joseph's), while Massachusetts and Rhode Island will extend their regional (New England) rivalry with another home & away series this season. Travel appears to have played a role as well, as Charlotte, Richmond and George Washington have all managed another season with mirror games. Television match-ups, Xavier/Dayton aside, appears to be a minor consideration. Looking at the average of the PWPs, it may seem the schedule maker created a "balanced" set of mirrors conference-wide, the standard deviation (and a visual inspection of the list highest to lowest) would strongly suggest otherwise.

Notes & Observations
A blend of regional rivals may help Charlotte's travel budget, but George Washington was stronger than anticipated last season, and with new coach Mike Lonergan at the helm in place of the departed Karl Hobbs combined with the return of well regarded (but red shirted last season) Lasan Kromah, the Colonials should be an even tougher challange in 2012. The Spiders lost Kevin Anderson and Justin Harper (and Dan Geriot), but Coach Chris Mooney has a deep squad at Richmond, which suggests the 49ers will again post a losing record in these six games.

Duquesne and Xavier account for Dayton's high PWP average for 2011, but Coach Rick Majerus returns over 90% of the minutes from the Bills' 2011 squad, and also bring back suspended Kwamain Mitchell, an All-Conference player in 2010. If Duquesne can regain their early 2011 momentum, Dayton may be hard pressed to come away from that six game set with even one win.
Xavier's mirrors seem to be a good balance of rivals and travel, but Saint Louis may be a tougher opponent this time around.

St. Bonaventure may benefit from a down year at Rhode Island and continued slow progress at Fordham. Like Xavier, the Bonnies appear to have drawn a traditional rivals schedule (Fordham and Duquesne) with travel (Rhode Island) as a consideration too. Coach Schmidt's squad went 4-2 against those three in 2011, and, given the 25% returning minutes at Kingston in 2012, may do even better in 2012.

Massachusetts, like St. Bonaventure, earned a 4-2 record against their mirror opponents in 2011, but if Saint Joseph's, the beneficiary of a an above average percentage of returning minutes (69%), improves as anticipated, Coach Derek Kellogg may be pressed to repeat that record in 2012. For a coach already feeling a bit of heat, that may well be the tipping point in his tenure.

Coach Jim Baron will see only 24% of his 2011 minutes return for 2012, so even with a rather light set of mirror opponents, the Runnin' Rams may take a step back from their 2011 3-3 mirror record.

Temple's 6-0 mirror record last season was due, in large measure, to the weakness of their three opponents who managed a collective 11-37 record in conference play last season. Collectively Fordham, La Salle and Saint Joseph's will absolutely improve their record next season, but expect Coach Fran Dunphy's squad to post another 6-0 record versus those three. That is a huge advantage when putting together a conference record.

On Second Thought -- Plotting Trendlines for Atlantic 10 Teams (pt 4)

Conference Elites
The three teams discussed in this post were the teams that topped the Atlantic-10 Conference last season. The teams share a common trait -- their offfensive efficiency trendlines started above their defensive efficiency trendlines (they were winning games) throughout the season. Each team lost at least one game, but even when more than one conference game was lost, that team did not sustain a losing streak of more than one game. The conference standings/seeds for the Atlantic 10 Tournament with the featured teams highlighted:

	W	L	Pct.
Xavier	15	1	0.938
Temple	14	2	0.875
Richmond	13	3	0.813
Duquesne	10	6	0.625
George Washington	10	6	0.625
Rhode Island	9	7	0.563
St. Bonaventure	8	8	0.500
Dayton	7	9	0.438
Massachusetts	7	9	0.438
La Salle	6	10	0.375
St. Louis	6	10	0.375
Saint Joseph's	4	12	0.250
Charlotte	2	14	0.125
Fordham	1	15	0.063

As the standings above show, all three teams earned first round byes, appearing first in the quarter finals in Atlantic City. And after Atlantic City, all three earned NCAA bids.

Richmond

Kenny Anderson's last season was the Spiders' best yet

Senior guard Kevin Anderson may not have had the kind of individual season in 2011 that one might expect from the returning Conference Player of the Year of 2010 (indeed, the A-10's 2011 POY went to Tu Holloway), but the team results were decidedly better. It appeared, about 10 games into the conference schedule, that the Spiders were headed to a "crossover" (a slump), but avoided that turn and put on an impressive run to end the season. Note the steep decline in the defensive efficiency trendline from games 10 (George Washington) through 16 (Duquesne), that movement is especially positive given the emphasis on defense in the post season setting. The Spiders went on to eliminate Rhode Island, Temple and finally Dayton to win the Atlantic-10 Conference Tournament, and though they earned a lowly #12 seed in the NCAA field, they survived the first weekend (wins over Vanderbilt and Morehead State) and ran to the Sweet Sixteen before being eliminated by Kansas in the Southwest Region. Rolling up a 13-2 record over their last 15 games, Richmond managed a program record 29 wins over their 37 game season. Coach Mooney turned aside overtures for BCS-level coaching jobs, and Richmond has tied him into a long term contract that should keep him for at least 5 more (or so) years.

Temple

Injuries caught up with the Owls

The preseason favorite to repeat as conference champion spent a good part of the season struggling to cover gaps in their lineup. A preseason injury to senior Craig Williams became a precursor of the season to come, as the forward was expected to miss only the first month or so of the season. Despite the prognosis, the senior suffered further injuries during rehabilitation, and never set foot on the court in 2011. Of those who did start the season, Juan Fernandez, the 2010 Atlantic-10 Tournament Most Valuable Player struggled at times in the out of conference portion of the season, and ultimately missed four conference games in January. The roster count going into 2010-11 was 11 (absent Craig Williams), so the margin for injury was extremely small. Freshman forward Anthony Lee sat out the season with a back injury, while Center Eric Michael tore a patella tendon February 17 and missed the rest of the season (six regular season conference games, Duke, two Atlantic-10 Conference Tournament games and two NCAA games). Meanwhile during the last portion of the regular season, Scootie Randall was also sidelined with a deeply bruised foot. The wing missed the last four regular season conference games (and Duke), and returned only for the NCAA games. Note the upturn (not a good turn) in the defense around game #13 (Saint Joseph's), which coincides with the simultaneous loss of Michael and Randall. The consolation is that the additional playing time allocated to Rahlir Jefferson, TJ DiLeo, Aaron Brown and Khalif Wyatt should pay dividends in 2012. The Owls lost their Atlantic-10 Conference Tournament semi-final game to Richmond (revenge for the Spiders who lost to the Owls in the 2010 Tournament final), but did eliminate Penn State in the first round of the NCAA before falling to San Diego State after two overtimes, in their second NCAA game.

Xavier

Led the conference from start to finish

Second year Coach Chris Mack, like Temple's Coach Dunphy, had to negotiate a rash of preseason/early season injuries that decimated the Musketeer squad through much of November. The Musketeers stumbled to a very unXavier-like out of conference record of 8-5 to start conference play. Pegged in the previews to finish anywhere from #2 to #4 in conference play, Coach Mack's squad led conference play from first tip to final buzzer, racking up an impressive 15-1 record in conference play. If Xavier's offensive efficiency showed a decline from games #6 (George Washington) to #14 (at Dayton), note their defense efficiency kept the margin more-or-less the same through that period. #1 seeded for the Atlantic-10 Tournament, the X-men were upset in the quarter-finals by old rival Dayton, and though seeded #6, they were surprisingly (again) eliminated from the NCAAs by a first round upset at the hands of Marquette.

On Second Thought -- Plotting Trendlines for Atlantic 10 Teams (pt 3)

Slumps and Surges...
The tie that binds the three Atlantic-10 teams featured in this post is the offensive efficiency trendline. Irrespective of where the offensive efficiency was in relation to the the defensive efficiency trendline, the team spent some part of the season "under water", only to have the offensive efficiency trendline emerge on top by the end of conference play. The conference standings/seeds for the Atlantic 10 Tournament with the featured teams highlighted:

	W	L	Pct.
Xavier	15	1	0.938
Temple	14	2	0.875
Richmond	13	3	0.813
Duquesne	10	6	0.625
George Washington	10	6	0.625
Rhode Island	9	7	0.563
St. Bonaventure	8	8	0.500
Dayton	7	9	0.438
Massachusetts	7	9	0.438
La Salle	6	10	0.375
St. Louis	6	10	0.375
Saint Joseph's	4	12	0.250
Charlotte	2	14	0.125
Fordham	1	15	0.063

As the standings above show, two of the teams posted losing records in conference play. In fact George Washington and Saint Louis were eliminated in the first round of the conference tournament and did not appear in the quarter finals in Atlantic City. Adding to George Washington's woes, the Colonials were not invited to any post season tournament either.

George Washington

The team learned how to play as the season progressed

Going into the 2011 season Coach Karl Hobbs knew he would not have the four seniors (and red shirt post grad guard Travis King) available. He could draw consolation however in a promising freshman (Nemanja Mikic), a few returning players who showed promise (Tony Taylor and David Pellom), but best of all, Lasan Kromah, the team leader for three point shooting and steals as a freshman in 2010. Kromah was named conference Rookie of the Week three times during his freshman campaign, and would surely be the offensive centerpiece for the 2011 campaign. Until he was injured in a preseason scrimmage with North Carolina State on October 30. Coach Hobbs literally had to retool the offense on the eve of the season, and that process went on for much of the 2011 campaign. Truly the proto-type of a team that got better as the season progressed, the Colonials logged a tepid 7-6 out of conference record, but managed a 5-5 record 10 games into the conference season, that 10th game was a four point loss (65-69) to Richmond on February 9. GW went 5-1 in the last six conference games, beating Rhode Island and Dayton in the process, to finish 10-6 (17-13 overall). Given the obstacles, this had to be one of Coach Hobbs' better coaching jobs, but a change in the Athletic Directorship at season's end resulted in Hobbs' termination in late April. Vermont's Mike Lonergan takes the helm of a team with experience and talent. Assuming no defections, Coach Lonergan should do well next season.

La Salle

Chemistry problems?

As the chart suggests, the Explorers dropped their first four conference games. Coach John Giannini, dissatisfied with sophomore center Aaric Murray's effort during a 26 minute stint in the conference opener at George Washington, suspended the sophomore for the second game (against Richmond), which La Salle lost by 19, 87-68. La Salle however, dropped two more conference games (interrupted by a win over Big 5 rival Penn) before they kicked off a three game winning run at Rhode Island. If Dr. Giannini's squad went 6-6 over the last 12 conference games, why the clear separation between offensive and defensive efficiencies which indicates the team operated "under water" for most of the conference season? The margin of wins and losses, coupled with the unexpected turns taken via the adjusted efficiencies explains the gap. Of their six conference wins, four were by five or less, with their wins over Massachusetts (21) and Fordham (26) at the end of the season the only double digit wins in conference play. The point margins in their 10 losses varied from -2 to -38, with half by double digits (and three by 20 or more). The wins over Massachusetts and Fordham account for the end of the season surge. The Explorers avenged their 21 point loss to St. Bonaventure with a road win in the first round of the A-10 Conference Tournament, but they lost the quarter final round to Temple by 20, 96-76 to close out their season. Aaric Murray announced his transfer on March 24, but Dr. Giannini has a number of very promising guards slated to return for the 2012 season.

Saint Louis

Another season, another unseasoned team...

Suspensions to two players just after the open of the Fall Practice dealt a blow to the Billikens' prospects in the 2011 season. Like Coach Hobbs at George Washington, Coach Rick Majerus has to retool on the fly, and St. Louis forged a lackluster 5-8 record before they began conference play. Ranked #346 among D1 programs in experience (by Ken Pomeroy) in 2010, the Bills were set to move up in 2011, but those suspensions (coupled with two off season transfers) pushed Coach Majerus' squad back down to #339 (again per Ken Pomeroy). The playing time distribution (he relied heavily on freshman guards Jordair Jett and Mike McCall, and gave freshmen center Rob Loe and wing Dwayne Evans more playing time than sophomores Cody Ellis, Cory Remekun and Christian Salecich). The efficiency trendlines are classic Majerus as tight defense and flagging offense (until the team "gets it") reflects youth on the squad. The late season "surge" was due more to several outstanding defensive outings (St. Louis held Charlotte, Duquesne and Dayton to 56 or fewer points, while an out of conference opponent, Chicago State, scored 52 points) rather than a surging offense. 2011 did not bring a repeat of the Bills' Fabulous February of 2010 (a 7-1 run to close out their A-10 slate and bring their conference record to 10-4), as they logged a 3-4 record in conference games to start March with a 5-9 conference record. For 2012, one of the suspended players will most likely return to play his senior season, but the other, along with transfer Christian Salecich, has decided to move on.

On Second Thought -- Plotting Trendlines for Atlantic 10 Teams (pt 2)

Badly Timed Slumps...
After developing the trendlines for all 14 teams of the Atlantic 10 Conference, two trends were obvious (a characteristic shared in common it would seem, with all conferences) -- those teams for whom the adjusted offensive efficiency trendline plotted above the adjusted defensive efficiency trendline, and remained there for the entire conference regular season, and those teams for whom the adjusted defensive efficiency trendline plotted above the adjusted offensive efficiency trendline and remained there throughout conference play. The former generally (but not always) finished at the bottom of the conference. The latter tended to dominate in conference play, finishing at the top of the conference. Those two trends however, account for about half the teams in the A10 (and seven of 16 teams in the Big East), but what of the others? Among the other seven Atlantic 10 teams two trends predominated -- either the offense declined as the conference season wore on, to the point that the defensive trendline crossed over or the offensive efficiency trendline rose through the latter part of the season (at least...). The first trend suggests the team was falling into a late season slump. The second trend, the team's offensive efficiency improved as the season progressed, suggests the players were "getting it" offensively (or the staff had begun to identify -- and play -- those players who were "getting it" offensively), but may have struggled with defense. The defensive efficiency trendline may (or may not) have crossed over the offensive trendline, but for three of those four teams (those three will be the subject of the next "On Second Thought..." post), the offensive efficiency trendline was above the defensive efficiency trendline by the end of conference play. This post will look at the four teams whose defensive efficiency trendlines were above their offensive efficiency trendlines by the end of conference play. The conference standings/seeds for the Atlantic 10 Tournament with the featured teams highlighted:

	W	L	Pct.
Xavier	15	1	0.938
Temple	14	2	0.875
Richmond	13	3	0.813
Duquesne	10	6	0.625
George Washington	10	6	0.625
Rhode Island	9	7	0.563
St. Bonaventure	8	8	0.500
Dayton	7	9	0.438
Massachusetts	7	9	0.438
La Salle	6	10	0.375
St. Louis	6	10	0.375
Saint Joseph's	4	12	0.250
Charlotte	2	14	0.125
Fordham	1	15	0.063

As the trendlines below illustrate, by season's end the defensive efficiency trendline had definitely crossed the offensive efficiency trendline for all four teams.

Dayton

The trendlines shadowed each other during the entire conference season

As suggested by the trendlines, the Flyers maintained a 0.500 record through most of conference play. If the dropped a (surprise) road game to Duquesne early in the season, they broke back later against the Dukes. They collapsed in the last three conference games however, sliding from a 7-6 record to finish 7-9. Despite a conference tournament mini-run, the Flyers' credentials qualified them for the NIT only. The defending champions from 2010, the Flyers went out in the first round, 94-84, to the College of Charleston. Coach Brian Gregory accepted the Georgia Tech coaching job in April.

Duquesne

A soft early schedule caught up with the Dukes?

Through much of the out of conference schedule, the Dukes racked up the kind of efficiency margins that drew the notice of notable stat geeks, an unimpressive schedule accepted. Through the first half of conference play, the preseason raves seemed justified, but as the Dukes' offensive trendline hints, there was trouble ahead. Though their 19 point win over Fordham (91-72) looks like their high water mark offensively, Coach Ron Everhart's squad did record an impressive 25 point win (84-59) over George Washington. But a corner had been turned, as Duquesne's offensive efficiency trended down through the last 10 games of the conference season. Though they hung on to qualify for a bye seed in Atlantic City, the Dukes were eliminated in an overtime quarter final game by Saint Joseph's. Duquesne was eliminated in the quarter final round of the CBI Tournament, 77-75, by Oregon of the Pac-10 Conference.

Rhode Island

Another end of season slump?

The "book" on Rhode Island in the Coach Baron Era is the team starts strong and fades by season end. The Runnin' Rams played a very competitive 83-75 game against Pittsburgh (in Pittsburgh) to open the season, and (despite several subsequent headscratching losses in their out of conference schedule), opened the conference season with a 5-3 record. Through the first eight games Rhode Island's offensive efficiency improved by 9 points (per 100 possessions). Though the offensive efficiency trendline continued to mark improvement, the rate slowed to approximately two points (per 100 possessions). Meanwhile, the defensive efficiency trendline slipped upward, putting the team "under water" in their last three games of the regular season (actually a 1-2 record). The Runnin' Rams recorded a 4-4 record over the last half of their conference slate to drop into a first round game to qualify for Atlantic City. Coach Baron's squad was invited to the CBI Tournament where they were eliminated 66-54 in the quarter final round by Central Florida of CUSA.

St. Bonaventure

Note the consistent improvement in offensive efficiency

Most Bonnies fans would not think of the 2011 season as a bust. The team had it's strongest showing since 2001-02, logging a >0.500 record with an 8-8 finish in the Atlantic 10. Coach Mark Schmidt's squad finished in the A10's upper division, a feat not accomplished since the 2001-02 season. Schmidt has matched or bettered the Bonnies win total each season he has directed the team, and with the CBI bid, this is the first post season for St. Bonaventure since their 2001-02 bid to the NIT. St. Bonaventure had two characteristics different from the other three teams...

1. The Bonnies' offensive efficiency improved throughout the 2011 conference season. The initial point (around 95) may seem low, but the Bonnies gradually improved that efficiency through the season, finishing at around 115, a versy strong finish.
2. The defense undermined the Bonnies' offensive progress, though that too was trending in the "right" direction by season's end.

The trendlines do not, however serve as a good predictor to St. Bonaventure's post season prospects. The Bonnies dropped their last two games of the season, an upset to La Salle allowed the Explorers to swipe their ticket to Atlantic City, and a first round loss to Central Florida knocked them out of the CBI. In all however, a season to build on for next year.

On Second Thought -- Plotting Trendlines for Atlantic 10 Teams (pt 1)

Under Water...
After I worked through the Big East 2011 season, I wanted to employ 3rd order polynomial trendlines to look at the Atlantic 10 conference season. I wanted to see how the trend line patterns might be similar and disimilar for BCS and non-BCS conference. The quick report is that there is little-to-no difference. But there is a quirk or two which gives me pause to think. The conference standings/seeds for the Atlantic 10 Tournament:

	W	L	Pct.
Xavier	15	1	0.938
Temple	14	2	0.875
Richmond	13	3	0.813
Duquesne	10	6	0.625
George Washington	10	6	0.563
Rhode Island	9	7	0.611
St. Bonaventure	8	8	0.500
Dayton	7	9	0.438
Massachusetts	7	9	0.438
La Salle	6	10	0.375
St. Louis	6	10	0.375
Saint Joseph's	4	12	0.250
Charlotte	2	14	0.125
Fordham	1	15	0.063

I have highlighted the teams featured in this post. Following posts, one (or two perhaps) to examine the teams that showed slumps/surges through the conference season, and a last post that will examine those teams who clearly (from the trendlines...) dominated in conference play, will cover all 14 conference teams.

Fordham

The gap between defense and offense suggests the Rams have a long road ahead

The Rams finished the season on a high note, the first conference win in 31 tries (over two seasons), in Coach Tom Pecora's first season. The program however has quite a distance to travel to even ascend to the middle of the conference pack. Progress for the next season will still be taken in measured steps -- a two or three win conference season, and hopefully a far narrower gap between the adjusted offensive and defensive efficiencies. Though Fordham won it's last game of the conference season, thereby breaking their 31 game losing run in conference play, the offensive trendline suggests their offense stalled (and defense slipped) through the last 2-4 games of the season. Those losses came against other struggling/slumping conference members. The gap suggests what the rest of the conference knows, Fordham last season was simply not competitive. The coaching may have been more savvy, but until the staff can surround Brandon Frazier and Chris Gaston with a solid cast, the Rams will continue to struggle in conference play.

Charleston

Another rookie Coach...another rookie season

Rookie Coach Alan Major took a largely intact squad that came within 1-2 wins of a post season bid in 2010, and registered a net -9 wins in 2011, -7 in conference play. Despite promising out of conference wins versus Tennessee and at Georgia Tech (both of whom fired their coaches at the end of the season) the 49ers sustained an offensive/defensive gap through much of the conference season second only to Fordham. Interesting perhaps, but certainly not good news to the 49er Nation, is how the trendlines moved in the same direction -- though the offense showed improvement through the last quarter of the season, the defense underperformed at an alarming rate.

Saint Joseph's

An end of season rally...

The freshmen will become sophomores, but the direction of the offensive trendline of 2011, like the closing win-loss rally through the end of the season (2-1 in the Atlantic 10 Conference Tournament -- not captured in the graph) suggest there is more than simply another season of experience to count on going into the 2012 season. The next task for the staff is the team defense, often the more difficult of the two parts of the game, to both teach and implement. If the trendlines suggest direction, the Hawks should be better in 2012.

Massachusetts

Curves in the same direction...all season long

Having multiple teams whose offensive efficiency trendline (raw or adjusted) that does not cross over their defensive efficiency trendline seems to be common, somewhere between one in four or one in five conference teams generate third order polynomial trendlines that show this behavior. The anomaly of the Minutemen is that the trendline belies their won-loss record -- 7-9 -- the type of record that would suggest a rally at some point in the season (beginning, middle, end?) that would allow the offensive efficiency trendline to cross the team's defensive efficiency trendline. Strange indeed that though Coach Derek Kellogg's squad was a mere -2 to the won-loss margin and they opened the season with a 5-2 record through seven games, the squad never logged more than two consecutive wins through the 16 game season, and lost their first two conference games by a combined margin of -45 points. Through the last nine conference games, Massachusetts recorded a 2-7 record that consisted of two losing streaks of three and four games each. I have not developed enough trendlines to determine how common the Massachusetts trend is among conferences, BCS and non-BCS alike, but I suspect it is relatively rare. The same direction of the trendlines suggest that though the Minutemen did win 43.8% of their games, the wins were neither dominant, nor strung together in a sustained run.

Atlantic 10 Tournament -- Revised log5, Post Quarter Finals

To the Finals
A quick log5 recalculation now that Friday's quarter finals leave only four teams in the field...

	Pythag.	Prob. Thru
Team	Win %	Semi	to Win
Temple	0.8797	0.564	0.505
Richmond	0.8496	0.436	0.378
Dayton	0.6986	0.729	0.051
Saint Joseph's	0.4632	0.271	0.004

If Temple's probabilities seem a bit low, look at the Owls' probabilities relative to the rest of the field. Coach Dunphy's team emerges as the strongest among the four. While Dayton might have the strongest probability of making it to the Finals (the Flyers' probabilities of beating Saint Joseph's is 72.9%). As Hawks' Coach Phil Martelli said in last night's post game press conference, "The Hawk never dies...we were just -- we were circling...And now we've been able to soar a bit", and it appears that Duquesne's team, eliminated 93-90 in overtime against Saint Joseph's, would have to agree. It will be interesting to see how the Flyers cope with this young, and becoming more confident with each game, squad.

The other semi-final, #3 seed Richmond versus #2 seed Temple will be a more traditional matchup. Temple won in Philadelphia during the season and Richmond's perimeter players, Justin Harper and Kevin Anderson, shot a combined 4-14 in their 55-45 win over Rhode Island Friday night. They will need to do better against Temple Saturday. Temple however, is not without problems of their own. Coach Dunphy lost two more players in the season's final weeks, Michael Eric is out for the season, and Scootie Randall is day-to-day with a foot problem. Dunphy did not need the junior as the Owls beat cross town rival La Salle by 20, 96-76, on Friday night. The Owls, who played with a seven man rotation for much of the game, will need him soon.

Atlantic 10 Tournament -- log5 Through the Quarter Finals

Two Rounds
A quick log5 calculation for the first round games Tuesday and the quarter finals on Friday...

	Pythag.	Prob. Thru
Team	Win %	Rnd 1	Quart.
Temple	0.8797		0.747
Xavier	0.8872		0.727
Duquesne	0.8322		0.715
Richmond	0.8483		0.603
George Washington	0.5479	0.664	0.130
Dayton	0.6475	0.670	0.127
Rhode Island	0.6182	0.503	0.113
St. Louis	0.6158	0.497	0.111
St. Bonaventure	0.5729	0.583	0.090
La Salle	0.4893	0.417	0.048
Saint Joseph's	0.3801	0.336	0.037
Massachusetts	0.4746	0.330	0.034

The value of a bye seed, any bye seed, is clear. Three extra days of rest, the decreased exposure to injury risk and the additional preparation time are all benefits from a season well-played. The probabilities for Temple, Xavier, Duquesne and Richmond provide a quantitative sense of the advantage. The probabilities for the semi-finals and finals will emphasize the built in advantages of the bye seeds.

Quick Thoughts
1. Though Richmond has the better Pythagorean Winning Percentage than Duquesne, the Spiders drew two of the tougher quarter final opponents, Rhode Island & St. Louis. The probability is based on the Pythagorean Winning Percentage, while the seed is determined by the conference won-loss record...and tie breakers.
2. Dayton, which travels to Massachusetts is the "upset special" of the first round. The caveat emptor however, is that while UMass has struggled lately, the Minutemen are riding a three game losing streak, the Flyers are also on a three game skid, and do not travel well (-0.047, ranked #9 in the conference) to boot. The pressure however, is on Dayton to make a run in the tournament, and the road starts at Massachusetts.
3. The Rhode Island - St. Louis first round game appears to be the "toss up special". The Runnin' Rams are on a two game slide (after a decent, 5-2 February), but the Billikens' net efficiency away from Chaifetz, -0.096, is worse than Dayton's, and Coach Rick Majerus' squad is ranked #339 out of 345 in experience, per Ken Pomeroy, another factor when assessing the Billikens' chances for getting to Atlantic City. St. Louis is six games under 0.500. Unless St. Louis runs the table in the conference tournament, their season ends with the next loss.

On Second Glance...
Ken Pomeroy over at the Basketball Prospectus has completed the brackets for the A-10 among others. Check it out if you have a chance. He apparently is planning to compute the log5 for a number of conference tournaments this week.

Returning Minutes and PWP -- the A-10 Going Into 2011

How Many Bids?
Though speculation at the midpoint of the Atlantic 10's 2010 regular conference season had as many as five, teams "in" or "right side of the bubble" for the NCAA Tournament, only three (Richmond, Temple and Xavier) were eventually invited. Seeded at #5 (Temple), #6 (Xavier) and #7 (Richmond), two of the three exited quickly, but Xavier did manage to go to the Sweet Sixteen where they bowed out to Kansas State after two overtimes. I developed an aerial that mapped the offensive and defensive efficiencies of the conference back in July which strongly suggested the conference had a number of very competitive teams last season. In addition to the three NCAA-bound teams, the conference also sent two to the NITs where Rhode Island ran to the semi-final round (eliminated by North Carolina) and Dayton won it all (beating North Carolina). Two were also invited to the CBI post season tournament, and ironically both were eliminated by the same VCU team that won the championship. George Washington was eliminated in the first round, while St. Louis eliminated three teams (Indiana State, Wisconsin-Green Bay and Princeton) before being eliminated by VCU in the championship series (0-2 in best of three). The aerial below maps returning minutes for the 2011 season each team's overall Pythagorean Winning Percentage (PWP) as determined by their play throughout the season against the conference averages for both. The table below lists the schools alphabetically, with percentage of returning minutes and PWP, along with the difference between the school's percentages and the average for the conference.

	Pct. (n * 100)			Difference (n-Avg)
Team	Min.	PWP		Min.	PWP
Charlotte	72.7	70.7		+7.8	+3.3
Dayton	50.3	91.7		-14.6	+24.6
Duquesne	73.7	56.2		+8.8	-11.1
Fordham	53.2	14.0		-11.7	-53.3
George Washington	75.3	66.5		+10.4	-0.8
La Salle	49.9	52.2		-19.0	-15.1
Massachusetts	78.5	52.1		+13.6	-15.2
Rhode Island	60.7	82.6		-4.2	+15.2
Richmond	68.9	87.5		+4.0	+20.2
Saint Joseph's	53.5	49.4		-11.4	-18.3
St. Bonaventure	58.1	59.6		-6.8	-7.7
St. Louis	82.7	74.4		+17.8	+7.1
Temple	65.9	92.2		+1.0	+25.9
Xavier	69.3	93.7		+4.4	+26.4
Average	64.9	67.3
Std Dev	11.40	22.24

The Atlantic-10's conference-wide PWP average, 67.3, reflects a good out of conference winning percentage versus all opponents. The conference may schedule it's share of cupcakes, but with a conference representative in virtually every early season invitational tournament, not to mention annual home-away series with teams from most of the five "above the red line" conferences, the average PWP is a fair reflection of where the conference ranks in the D1 pecking order. As preparation for a longer look at the A-10's prospects going into the 2011 season, I decided to map each team's PWP and percentage of returning minutes into a scatter chart...

And judging from the distribution of the teams, I would suggest the answer to ESPN's lead-in question (rhetorical most likely, for the headlines) to their Summer Shootaround article (posed again above -- "How many bids?") is "At least as many as 2010, but if not more, then most certainly better seeds" -- if there are no surprises. The scatter chart shows five teams in to the upper right quadrant, where teams that return more than the conference average for minutes and had a higher than conference average PWP last season, are mapped. While the scatter chart is no guarantee of results (everyone still has to play the games, that's the fun of the season, right?), it is a visual that can provide a quantitative perspective as a counterpart to the flurry of predictions. In "above the Red Line" conference, teams in the upper right quadrant generally perform at or better than the previous season (conference record, rank), while teams in the lower left (returning minutes and last season's PWP less than the conference average, a double hit that suggests performance will lag) generally perform at or below their previous season's conference record/rank. The distribution also suggests competition in the Atlantic-10 will be tough next season as so many winning teams return large percentages of their playing time -- teams that won last season return players who know how to win. Questions of talent aside, that should indicate it will be even more difficult for freshmen-led teams to break through next season. There are a number of questions with particular programs...

About Charlotte
When a team that maps into the "Above Average" quadrant has a new coach, it almost always means their former coach moved on to (bigger and better...) things. Not so with the 49ers, who fired the winningest coach in their program's history and turn to a Thad Matta assistant coach to take up the program reins. The fan-base was supportive of AD Judy Rose's decision to terminate Bobby Lutz, and bring in Alan Major as his successor, a response that suggests the desire for change was widespread. That the program suffered no significant post succession transfer losses suggests the players are on board. If Bobby Lutz had moved on to another head coaching job (he landed on the Iowa State staff as an associate head coach, a situation that should benefit both Lutz and newbie Head Coach Fred Hoiberg) and Coach Major had head coaching experience (leading a winning program) before moving over to Charlotte, predicting good things for the 49ers in 2011 would be a no-brainer. As it is, arguments that Charlotte will finish in the A-10's upper division are persuasive. The key for Charlotte will be if Coach Major addresses the 49ers defense (their Achilles Heel last season), find a good successor to the point guard position and avoid the temptation to retool the offense (it was good in 2010).

Dayton & Rhode Island...Coming or Going?
Both teams performed well in the NIT, a tournament commonly believed to be a good stepping stone to the NCAA, especially for the teams that get to New York City. Both programs have, however, seen a good percentage of their rotation minutes (and points) move on. Rhode Island suffered a few disappointments on the recruiting trail, but Coach Jim Baron managed to recoup those losses with a number of mid and late summer recruits. While not a "returning Ram", Dan West does have a year of JUCO ball and should bring a few more points to the back court. Dayton faces a similar loss of (starting & rotation) minutes. Coach Gregory is known for his deep rotation, but having two stellar wings in Chris Johnson and Chris Wright, six additional returning squad members and an MVC transfer guard (Josh Parker from Drake) who practiced with the Flyers last season should make for a good bounce back. The Flyers have additional back court (where they lost quite a few minutes) in Juwan Staten, a freshman who, if recruiting gurus are correct, should be in the thick of the A-10 Rookie of the Year race this season (the Dagger Blog has a worthwhile interview with Staten, if you have the time).

The Situation in St. Louis
Most thought the Billikens dodged a bullet when local prosecutor Jennifer Joyce declined prosecution in a sexual assault case, but a University Judicial Committee has also heard the case and according to reports rendered a decision that the players have appealed. While details of the decision will not be announced until the players appeal has been adjudicated, rumors suggest that the Committee assessed a punishment that included a one year suspension, coupled with a ban from on-campus housing when the players return to school. A school suspension would render the players unavailable in 2011, a huge disruption to the Billiken program, which if true, would drop Coach Majerus' squad into the lower right quadrant with Dayton and Rhode Island.

Saint Joseph's Dream Class
Head Coach Phil Martelli brings the best incoming class of the conference to Hawk Hill this season. Will that group of freshmen be able to reverse the program's fortunes in 2011? They may well be, individually, better than the squad Coach Martelli put on the court last season, but with better competition the Hawks may be hard pressed to match their five conference win mark from 2010.

Observations...
...as I reviewed the table and chart a few points came to mind:
1. The standard deviation for returning minutes was just over 11%. The standard deviation for the PWP was nearly twice that of returning minutes, suggesting there is a rather large gap in the best and worst (as measured by PWP) in the conference. A quick check of the numbers shows that Fordham, at whose variance from the PWP average, -53.3, is more than twice the variance of Xavier's 23.4, the "best" PWP in the conference. Fordham, ranked #304 (out of 347 in Division 1) presents quite a challenge for new Head Coach Tom Pecora. These Rams went 0-16 last season, a mark Coach Pecora should be able to exceed. But Fordham will probably not be competitive for #13 place in the conference.
2. Although he has upped the Bonnies' number of conference wins each year of his tenure, if the conference is as tough as I expect next season, Coach Mark Schmidt may be hard pressed to improve that conference win total (7) in his fourth season in Olean.
3. Massachusetts and George Washington should be interesting conference story lines this season. Both return a lot of minutes in programs that have struggled of late. A more competitive conference race may mean neither team shows improvement in their respective conference won-loss records, though both could actually make progress. Crucial numbers to check would include efficiency differentials (offensive efficiency - defensive efficiency) per Ray Floriani's College Chalk Talk article about efficiency differentials. For the coaching staffs though, the statistic may be too esoteric for results-oriented Athletic Directors.
4. The conference returns an average of (about) 65% of their minutes in 2011, down very slightly from their 2010 returning minutes (about 67%). The standard deviation, at just over 11, was lower than 2010's 13, suggesting there is less variance going into 2011 than there was going into 2010.

Rivalries -- the Big East vs the Atlantic 10

The Untelevised Conference Challenge
Made for television power conference "challenges" have, along with early season invitational tournaments and one-shot TV-initiated match-ups, become popular media events that break up the monotony of the diet of out conference games in which an "above the red line" host pummels a "below the red line" visitor, and then settles the penalty clause for breaking the NCAA-mandated home-away contract.

The rivalry between the Atlantic 10 Conference and the Big East Conference, is unusual. True, the foot prints do not match exactly, but those footprints do contain a large overlap -- one that starts in New England at the shores of the Atlantic Ocean, south to the Appalachian coal fields, northwest to the Great Lakes and west to the shores of the Mississippi. The schools within that overlap, 27 of the 30 member schools, loosely share a common history. The six schools west of the confluence of the Monongahela and Allegheny Rivers have all shared at least one common conference affiliation in the past 50 years. In the Northeast, where schools did not affiliate until the final ascendence of the NCAA over the NIT in the mid 1970s, basketball rivalries, independently and individually scheduled, stretched through the decades. Villanova and Duquesne, two schools who have not met since 1994, played 49 games in the 60 years preceding seasons. Often these rivalries started as "bragging right" affairs. Philadelphia's Big 5 Series, dating to the mid 1950s, pits La Salle, Saint Josephs's, Temple and Villanova in an annual round robin. The Crosstown Shootout between Cincinnati and Xavier, a series dating back 1927-28, became an annual event in 1945-46. Three of the two conference's four New England members played in the now defunct Yankee Conference, while the fourth school, Providence College, independently scheduled the other three going back to the earliest days of the Friar's program (1920 - 1932). And the annual round robin series between Duquesne, Pitt and West Virginia dates to the mid 1970s. In the 2010 season the conferences scheduled 23 games, played between 27 of the two conferences 30 members.

For Those Too Busy for the Details...
Big East schools held a 17-6 (0.736) margin this season. For the games Big East schools won, the average winning margin was 12.6 points; for games won by the Atlantic 10 school, the winning margin was 8.2. The Big East's winning percentage may seem large, but consider it is well below the 0.850 winning percentage Red Line defined by the Mid-Majority's Kyle Whelliston. The Red Line (which can, as defined by Whelliston, change over time...but likely won't change much) is a line of demarcation -- members of those conferences above the Red Line compiled a winning percentage greater than 85% (0.870 in 2009) over teams from those conferences below the Red Line. Money, TV exposure and branding, as suggested by Whelliston, have played a (large) role in the demarcation. But the line itself refers to a result tallied on the court, not size, nor football affiliation, nor budgets.

Individual Standings
The record for teams by conference...

Big East Teams (14/16)
	W	L	Pct.	Comments
Cincinnati	0	1	0.000	Crosstown Shootout
DePaul	1	0	1.000
Georgetown	1	0	1.000
Louisville	0	1	0.000
Marquette	1	0	1.000
Notre Dame	1	0	1.000
Pittsburgh	1	1	0.500
Providence	1	1	0.500
Rutgers	1	0	1.000
Seton Hall	1	1	0.500
St. John's	3	0	1.000
Syracuse	1	0	1.000
Villanova	4	1	0.800	Big 5 = 3 games
West Virginia	1	0	1.000	Duquesne
	17	6	0.739	0.131 < 0.870

While the Crosstown Shootout, the Duquesne-Pittsburgh-WVU Series and Philadelphia's City Series are annual events, they account for only six of the 23 scheduled games. Of the remaining 17, four were invitational tournament-arranged match-ups. The others, 13 of 23 (56.5%), were individually scheduled games. As the total number of games played (23) suggests, few, only four this season, played more than a single game against an A10 team. Villanova's commitment to the Big 5 guarantees the 'Cats will see at least three A10 teams each season, but a combination of invitational tournament commitments and individually schedule contracts means the number of A10 meetings will rarely be less than four. The Atlantic 10 standings are not quite the mirror one might expect...

Atlantic 10 Teams (13/14)
	W	L	Pct.	Comments
Charlotte	1	0	1.000	at Louisville!
Dayton	0	1	0.000	PR Shootout Tour.
Duquesne	0	2	0.000
Fordham	0	2	0.000
George Washington	0	1	0.000
La Salle	0	1	0.000
Massachusetts	0	2	0.000
Rhode Island	1	0	1.000	vs. Providence
Saint Joseph's	0	2	0.000
St. Bonaventure	0	2	0.000
St. Louis	0	1	0.000
Temple	2	2	0.500
Xavier	2	1	0.667
	6	17	0.261

Unlike the Big East membership, more than half (8/14 -- 57.1%) of the A10 membership did play multiple games with Big East teams. That the two A10 teams that seemed to be competitive with their Big East counterparts in multiple match-ups turned out to be Temple and Xavier should be no surprise. Both received 2010 NCAA bids and were awarded seeds higher than #8 (the tournament mid-point).

A Few Thoughts
1. Charlotte's 12/9 87-65 road win over Louisville raised a few eyebrows around D1, and resurrected a lot of hopes around Charlotte, NC. The '49ers, having taken a 101-59 drubbing at the hands of Duke in their third game, pulled themselves together to launch a seven game winning streak, with road wins over Louisville and Winthrop serving as the high notes. They did/could not sustain the momentum however, dropping three more OOC games (at Old Dominion, home versus Georgia Tech and at Tennessee), before starting conference play. Taking a "bubbly" 10-4 record into conference play, Charlotte then launched a second extended winning streak, running out to an 8-1 conference record, assembling a solid tournament resume right into the first week of February. And then Charlotte imploded, going 1-6 down the stretch. A first round (home) loss in the A10 Conference Tournament closed out any post season chances, and sent 12 year veteran coach Bobby Lutz packing. Louisville, after dropping a second (in a row) head scratcher to Western Carolina. As Big East pundits posted "What Happened to Louisville" essays, the Cardinals started to come together, running off four wins before starting Big East play. Louisville went 11-7 in conference play, and earned their third consecutive NCAA bid.
2. Dayton met Villanova in the second round of the Puerto Rico Tip Off in late November. An early harbinger for the Flyers' fortunes, they trailed for all but 2:30 minutes, but closed to within two points with 90 ticks on the clock. Villanova won it late at the line, pushing the winning margin out to six points, just beyond the five point "close game" margin. Of Dayton's 12 losses, nine were by five or fewer points. Make that 10 by six or fewer.
3. St. John's three A10 wins suggested a better Big East Conference season was on the horizon. If their +1 opening salvo versus St. Bonaventure was underwhelming, consider it came on a neutral upstate court. The Philly Hoop Group Classic Final win over Temple, coming on the floor of the Palestra in Philadelphia on the other hand should have raised hopes that the team was coming into it's own. The 17 point thumping of Fordam in mid December was simply an exclamation point on what, to that point, had been an 8-1 run (the sole loss was to Duke). St. John's however, stumbled again (to Cornel in the ECAC Holiday Tournament) before the start of conference play. And started their conference schedule with an 0-3 streak. The Johnnies did earn an NIT bid, but lost on the road to Memphis in the first round. Coach Roberts joined Bobby Lutz on the unemployment line (until June, when Lutz joined Fred Hoiberg's Iowa State staff as an Assistant Coach).
4. Temple, A10 Tournament Champ, may have been disappointed by their 2-2 record versus the Big East, but with their 12/19 71-61 win over Villanova, the Owls managed to break their four game losing streak versus Villanova, regain a co-leader standing (with Villanova) in Big 5 competition, 120-84, and eventually win the 2010 City Series outright. Some wins are sweeter than others.
5. The last word in this season's interconference competition came on March 21, and it was uttered by Xavier as the X-men beat Pittsburgh 71-68, in the second round of the NCAAs.

Out of Curiosity...
I wondered how these teams matched up before the 64 team NCAA and CBS' TV money "encouraged" the NCAA to level the field and award automatic spots to all conference champions. The time before BCS football and power conferences (though not necessarily before the Red Line) emerged in D1 basketball. As a completely unscientific experiment, I arbitrarily subtracted 35 (to insure it would predate the 64 team tournament field and the Big East and Atlantic 10 Conferences) and compiled the team-by-team results of the 1974-75 season. A number of the teams (DePaul, Villanova, St. John's and Providence among others) were independents, while others were affiliated in now defunct conferences (Connecticut, Massachusetts and Rhode Island in the Yankee Conference to cite one example -- there are others). Though neither conference was operational in 1975, elements of both were present in the primordial soup of the ECAC North and South Divisions (back then, even as it is today, more an "affiliation" than a "conference"), and the now defunct East Coast Conference. West of the Alleghanys the Missouri Valley Conference Champion was Louisville. The Cardinals would in succession beat Rutgers then Cincinnati on their way to a 3^rd place finish, beating Syracuse. 29 of the 30 conference members faced off least once during the season, with 65 total games played between teams of the two conferences. That total does not include games played between teams that would eventually join the same conference (either Atlantic 10 or Big East). Big East teams held a 52-13 record, which computes to an 80% winning percentage. For the (future) Big East teams, the average margin of victory was 14.3 points; for the (future) Atlantic 10 teams, the margin of victory was 5.9.