A10 Efficiencies -- An Aerial View of 2010

...And Then There Were Three
At the midpoint of the Atlantic 10's regular conference season, bracketologist all over the D1 universe were buzzing about the number of teams the conference would/could put into the NCAA Tournament. With speculation running as high as five, it may have been something of a letdown when three invitations actually went out. Three equals the number of invitations in 2008 & 2009 (their 2010 seeds were better though), and bettered their numbers for 2005 - 2007. Dayton, at times dominant in conference play, never seemed to engage with the season, missing early opportunities to build their resume. Rhode Island and Charlotte, surprisingly strong in their out of conference schedules with wins over Oklahoma State and Louisville respectively, sputtered late. Charlotte's swoon, an especially nasty 1-7 run in the 49ers' last eight games, cost coach Bobby Lutz his job. St. Louis, the youngest team in the conference going into the season, played to type early on (winning at Chaivetz, but losing -- at times badly -- on the road), but posted a strong 7-1 record in February and (best of all...) played a game in January quirky enough (all points scored on 2FGAs only) to draw warrant a post in Ken Pomeroy's blog. The Billikens would have had to run the table in Atlantic City however, to draw an invitation from the Selection Committee. The aerial view of the conference's offensive and defensive efficiency (conference games only)...

Note that the conference-wide efficiency was 1.011 points per possession (or adjusted for 100 possessions, 101.1 -- table below). The standard deviation suggests greater variability in defensive efficiency among conference teams than on offense.

	Efficieny		(Off - Def)	Avg=101.1
Team	Off	Def	Difference	Off	Def
Xavier	112.1	94.8	17.3	11.1	6.3
Temple	107.0	91.5	15.6	6	9.6
Richmond	105.9	94.3	11.6	4.9	6.8
Dayton	102.0	91.2	10.8	0.9	9.9
Rhode Island	109.2	103.3	5.9	8.2	-2.2
St. Louis	96.6	94.3	2.3	-4.5	6.8
Charlotte	101.9	102.1	-0.2	0.9	-1.0
George Washington	99.3	101.0	-1.6	-1.7	0.1
St. Bonaventure	99.4	103.8	-4.3	-1.6	-2.7
Duquesne	99.7	105.6	-5.9	-1.3	-4.5
La Salle	98.4	106.6	-8.2	-2.7	-5.5
Massachusetts	99.2	107.4	-8.2	-1.8	-6.3
Saint Joseph's	94.5	105.5	-11	-6.6	-4.4
Fordham	89.4	114.1	-24.7	-11.7	-13.0
Average	101.1	101.1
Std Dev	5.77	6.63

The teams which posted positive efficiency differentials went to the post season, while those who did not -- George Washington excepted -- ended their seasons before Selection Sunday. The configuration, most teams (10/14 -- 71%) located either in the "Good Offense/Good Defense" quadrant or the "Bad Offense/Bad Defense" quadrant, resembles the Big East aerial from 2009 (13/16 -- 81%). The Big East Conference was considered "stronger than usual" in 2009 -- true for the 2010 edition of the A10 perhaps? The conference's post season success (Temple and Richmond, two first round losses aside...) was also rather notable...

1. Xavier went to the Sweet Sixteen where the Musketeers lost by five points to Kansas St. in the second overtime period.
2. Dayton won the NIT, beating North Carolina.
3. Rhode Island ran to the NIT semi-finals, losing by a point to North Carolina in overtime.
4. St. Louis lost to Virginia Commonwealth in the CBI finals.

Observations...
A few thoughts as I reviewed the aerial and underlying data (and sometimes team-related data)...
1. Dayton was clearly an outlier. I suspect (though have not confirmed) that a team that places in the "Good/Good" quadrant in any of the BCS conferences would receive an NCAA bid. The Flyers, victims in part of a late charging Billikens squad (they were 0-2 in that series last season), appeared unable to finish close games. Coach Gregory's squad was 1-7 in conference games decided by five or fewer points. Location mattered as the Flyers were 0-6 in close games on the road, and 1-1 in close games at home. Dayton returns a squad weighted heavily with rising junior and seniors, but as a whole, they (along with a few rising sophomores), represent just over 50% of the minutes logged in 2010. Winning the NIT is, given where the squad stood on March 13, the best possible ending, but Coach Gregory may have missed on his best chance to field a squad capable of taking a deep run into the NCAA field.
2. Richmond, Temple and Xavier, the three teams that finished in the "Good/Good" quadrant return about (give or take) the average of returning minutes next season. Fans anticipating strong showings for the Spiders, Owls and Musketeers should not be disappointed.
3. The Billikens' run through the CBI was a good start for a squad that returns virtually intact next season. St. Louis, typical of Coach Majerus' coached teams led with defense. Success in 2011 will no doubt depend on how they progress offensively.
4. George Washington, the seventh conference team invited to a post season tournament is, re-checking the chart and tables above, an outlier. The Colonials were eliminated in the first round by the tournament's eventual winner, Virginia Commonwealth University. Unlike the NCAA and NIT, the CBI does not appear to have a quantitative criteria for seeding their field. GW boasted two headliners, A10 Honorable Mention Damian Hollis and A10 All-Rookie first teamer Lasan Kromah, which combined with the local match-up (VCU is located in Richmond, Va, about 50 miles southeast of Washington DC), increased the chances the game would draw media attention and a box office.
5. Charlotte, a near-miss for the post season in 2010, returns nearly all of their squad. First year head coach Alan Major steps into a nearly perfect situation for a new coach. If he can address the defensive problems and avoid the pitfall of trying to install a brand-new system without due consideration to the talent on hand, he ought to be able to get that squad to take the next forward step.

A New Blog: A10 By the Numbers

Hmmm, That Sounds Familiar
The bloggers over at College Chalk Talk decided to "go national" with their site (though they have assured readers they will maintain an A10 "perspective"), which seems to have created a niche for the NIT-ology blogger (apologies ahead of time Mike if I have your last name wrong...), Mike Scullin to start up a side project -- A10 by the Numbers. The blogger promises "statistical analysis of atlantic 10 conference basketball", a topic I have also had a growing interest in this season. Mike has put up 4 posts this month, 2 on the post season odds for A10 teams and 2 on team-specific issues (Duquesne and Saint Joseph's) that are particularly good.

If your interests run to the A10 and stats, A10 by the Numbers is worth a long look.

Opposition Research -- An A10 Walkaround

Assessing the Damage
Three members of the Big 5 also share a conference affiliation through the A10, which makes the yearly ebb and flow in that conference of more than passing interest to Wildcat fans (especially the basketball fans). Last season Villanova, by accident of invitational tournaments and scheduling design played nearly ½ of the conference during the OOC part of their season. Along with the 3 Big 5 opponents, Villanova will complete a home-n-home series with Fordham this season, the when and where are still TBD, though November and the CAA Arena in the Meadowlands, NJ have been in circulation for a few weeks. Dayton has been assigned to Villanova's bracket in the Puerto Rico Tip-Off. Though the Wildcats and Flyers are not matched up in their first game, depending on results, the two may meet in their second game. The College Chalk Talk Blog has been running a couple of series of interest in the off season. Their 2 part "Damage Assessment" series provides a quick summary of key losses to each program, packaged with an assessment and explanation. Dayton, Fordham and La Salle are covered in "Part 1". For Dayton (expected to contend for the A10 title this season if Gary Parrish's early summer Top 25 Plus 1, which ranks Dayton at #17 proves accurate) and La Salle losses are "minimal" (smallest impact rating). Dayton, according to the summary, "has arguably the best forward in the league to help make up for..." the departing player. That forward, Chris Wright, was listed among the Honorable Mentions on Dick Vitale's All Rolls Royce Team in July. College Chalk Talk also ran a "5 Questions" style interview with Assistant Coach Jon Borovich. Borovich provided some background on the Flyers' incoming class, a few of Dayton's returning players (with a comment about injured pg Rob Lowry's status) and expectations for the 2010 season. CBSsportsLine's Team Report says Lowry will be back for this season, but the Flyers still need some outside scoring.

The assessment for Fordham is "significant", the return of Jio Fontan, an A10 All-Rookie and All-3rd Team'er the only event that saved the Rams from a "total" (the worst impact rating) damage assessment. As the Rams lost two guards through transfer at the end of the 2009 season, Fordham denied Fontan's request for a release and touched off a controversy that brought comments and press statements from his parents, his High School Coach (Bob Hurley of St. Anthony's), a few Rutgers players (former St. Anthony's teammates, with Rutgers rumored to be his destination) and bloggers from New Jersey and metropolitan New York. Fontan joined the Puerto Rican U19 team (with Rutgers' #2 guard Mike Rosario) and played in the FIBA U19 Championship in New Zealand, giving everyone space to return to their corners and assess their options. The Rams bring in 6 more freshmen this season, in what increasingly looks like -- at best -- a slight improvement over last seasons' 3-25 campaign. Head Coach Dereck Whittenburg has to feel some heat going into this season.

Damage Assessment for the Explorers is also minimal which, combined with the arrival of consensus A10 preseason Rookie of the Year Aric Murray, puts expectations very high for the senior-led team. The summer started with good news (for La Salle) as Philadelphia native Earl Pettis decided to transfer from Rutgers and sit the 2010 season before joining the Explorers for the 2011 season. Senior forward Mekongo Mbala will spend the first part of August competing in the FIBA Africa Championship with the Cameroon National Team.

Damage assessments for the latter part of the A10's alphabet revealed "significant" damage for both St. Joseph's and Temple. The Joe's, coming off of a 17-15 season are, staggered by the loss of A10 (and Big 5) Player of the Year Ahmad Nevins, who will continue his career in Spain next season (the 6-9 forward signed with Manresa in the ACB League) and without a step-in replacement for their front court. Also departed is point guard Tasheed Carr, a transfer who put in his last two years with the Hawks. While the CBS Team Report notes that Coach Phil Martelli may have found replacements, the entering class will replace losses (to some degree), but add no more depth than the Hawks have had for the past several seasons. According to Coach Phil Martelli, who also sat for a "5 Questions" interview, the Hawks will compensate for the loss of Nivins by spreading the shooting responsibility and putting more motion in their offense. With a raw pace of 65.2 the Hawks were ranked #219 out of 344 DI teams by Ken Pomeroy last season. He looks to Garret Williamson and Darrin Govins to step into the leadership vacuum left by Nivins and Carr. Opening their renovated (and expanded) field house to host more on campus games should be a morale booster.

Like St. Joseph's, Temple loses their best (and the A10 champion) scorer, along with a senior center and their point guard. According to CBS' Team Report, Coach Dunphy has some good players coming back and others coming in (even the College Chalk Talk bloggers believe the Owls will finish near the top of next season's A10), but, like the Joe's, Temple may go through the season with a shallow bench. In his 5 Question Interview Coach Dunphy fielded questions about rising sophomore Juan Fernandez, an Argentine pg who has been compared to Temple great Pepe Sanchez. When asked about "the critical stat" for the Owls he answered turnovers. If shooting efficiency does step back from last season (with a team eFG% of 51.5, the Owls were ranked #88 in DI by Ken Pomeroy), limiting turnovers (with a TO% of 18.9%, the Owls, ranked #77 in 2009, are doing pretty well already).

Late Additions
I posted this walkaround on 8/14, but in the meantime, ESPN published an extensive update on the conference on the 19th. A detailed look at the entire conference, it appears that Fran Fraschilla also believes Dayton will dominate the conference. The second game in Puerto Rico, should both the Wildcats and Flyers advance from their first round game, could loom large for later in the season. Fraschilla also sees the Owls and Explorers finishing in the upper division, suggesting those two will provide good games for the 'Cats in December.

Tracking Ray Floriani

Frequent contributor Ray Floriani is doing a guest stint over at College Chalktalk as he takes a numbers-first look at the Xavier - Dayton rematch tonight. The game matches the top schools in the A10, and while both schools appear to be in the field of 65 (according to Crashing the Dance), the winner will be in very good shape going into the A10 Tournament and onto Selection Sunday. Dayton took the first game at Dayton.

Tracking Ray Floriani...

Frequent guest contributor Ray Floriani is spreading the word about possession-based statistics throughout the world of D1 basketball. Over at the Rush the Court Blog Ray employed a technique developed by Basketball Prospectus blogger John Gasaway to rank the conference's eleven teams by the differential of each team's offensive & defensive efficiency. The posting (titled "Checking in on the...NEC") demonstrates that Mount St. Mary's 11-5 record is no fluke. Sacred Heart may have the better offensive efficiency, but the Mount has the larger differential (and better record). Defense does matter. Rush the Court has, by the way, extensive coverage and analysis on the Providence's upset of Pittsburgh last night.

Ray applied the same technique for an update/analysis posted an update of the Atlantic 10 Conference over at the College Chalktalk Blog. Ray observed that success in the A10 tournament last season was linked to a positive efficiency margin (EM). Which may translate into good news for Villanova's Big 5 brethren Temple and St. Joseph's.