2011-12 Preview -- Third Quartile

Across the Great Divide
Although three of the four teams that finished in the third quartile earned bids to the NCAA Tournament in March 2011 -- one of them won the National Championship -- this is still the lower half of the conference, and over the course of 18 games those four could win at most half of the conference games scheduled for them. The conference will not send 11 teams to the NCAA Tournament this season, but four teams will still finish between #9 and #12, and win at most nine games against their conference mates.

	2010-11 Season
	Overall			Big East			BET	Post
Team	W	L	Pct.	W	L	Pct.	Seed	Seasn?
Georgetown	21	11	0.558	10	8	0.556	8	NCAA
Seton Hall	13	18	0.420	7	11	0.389	12	BET
St. John's	21	12	0.636	12	6	0.667	5	NCAA
Villanova	21	12	0.636	9	9	0.500	10	NCAA

This third quartile is an interesting mix of teams that seemed to do better last season (Georgetown & St. John's) matched with teams that seem to be treading water (Seton Hall & Villanova).

Team Thumbnail (in 300 words...more or less)
Georgetown -- Funky February, part 1
Since running to the Final Four in 2006-07, the Hoyas' monthly cumulative record has been...

Month	W	L	Pct.
November	19	1	0.950
December	21	4	0.840
January	20	13	0.606
February	16	13	0.552
March	10	11	0.476

While Coach John Thompson's squad does play a few out of conference games after December (and one or two conference games over that time period in December...), the table hints strongly that Georgetown consistently struggles with the backend of their conference schedule. Is the composition of schedule at fault? Looking at the composite using possession-based stats (along with Pythagoreas...) and we get a bit more insight on the problem...

	Efficiency
Month	Off	Def	Margin	PWP
November	1.115	0.883	0.232	0.936
December	1.164	0.899	0.265	0.951
January	1.072	1.031	0.041	0.611
February	1.041	1.012	0.028	0.588
March	1.018	1.040	-0.022	0.440

The Hoyas are always good for one or two early season Whaaat? losses. The table indicates they tend to come in December (note the difference between wins in the first table, and the Pythagorean Winning Percentage -- PWP -- in the second table...the Hoyas should have more wins in December that they actually had). Most interesting however, is the loss of offense in February. Defense seems to improve as they move from January into February, but the offense tapers off. A quick reaction might be that the Georgetown teams suffer from freshmen fatigue, but the teams last season and 2009-10 did not to their freshmen for points.

The Hoyas return 48.5% of their 2010-11 minutes and 42.5% of their points, a reflection of the large roles played by Austin Freeman, Chris Wright and Julian Vaughn. Of the returning players, wing Jason Clark (30.6 MPG, 12.0 PPG, 4.1 RPG) and forward Hollis Thompson (23.3 MPG, 8.6 PPG, 4.4 RPG) were the most prolific scorers. They will most likely be joined by sophomore power forward Nate Lubick (19.7 MPG, 4.0 PPG, 3.5 RPG). All three started at least 13 games in 2010-11 and will form the nucleus around which Coach Thompson rebuild the team. If the Hoyas had an abundance of guard/wings last season, the emphasis should shift to the inside this season as four of the five members of the freshmen class, Otto Porter (6-9, 200 lbs, small forward), Mikael Hopkins (6-8, 210 lbs, center), Jabril Trawick (6-5, 200 lbs, off guard), Tyler Adams (6-9, 255 lbs, center) and Greg Whittington (6-8, 195 lbs, power forward), are forwards or centers. Lacking a point guard in the cohort, the staff will most likely tab Markel Starks, who appeared in 30 games last season, for the job. Expect the back court rotation to include Starks, Clark and Trawick. Expect the freshmen to push senior Henry Sims 14.0 MPG, 3.6 PPG, 3.2 RPG) for time in the low post.

The Maui Invitational will test Georgetown early as the Hoyas face (after a "campus" game versus UNC-Greensboro) Kansas in the opening round in Hawaii. The second round will be either UCLA or Chaminade, with a third round opponent one of Duke, Michigan, Memphis or Tennessee. Coach Thompson's squad travels to Birmingham to face SEC contender Alabama as part of the Big East/SEC Challenge December 1. The Maui Invitational, Alabama and a late December meeting with Memphis (a possible rare second meeting given the Tigers are also in the Maui field) are the Hoyas' toughest out of conference matches. One or two losses are possible, but should the Hoyas be undefeated going into their conference opening game with Louisville (in Louisville) the game will most likely be billed as a Top 15 meeting. Mirror games with Marquette, Providence and St. John's should be a relief given the rebuilding job Coach Thompson faces. A 3-3 record would be a disappointment, with worse a problem, as the Hoyas travel to Louisville, Pittsburgh, Syracuse and West Virginia for games this season. Out of a home slate of Cincinnati, Connecticut, Notre Dame, Rutgers, South Florida and Villanova (plus the three mirrors) the Hoyas will have to do better than 4-5 for any chance at a 9-9 (or better) conference record. If past is prelude, look at the number of losses Georgetown has sustained through January 31. If it is four or fewer, then double it (again plus/minus one) for February.

Seton Hall-- If He Knew Then What He Knows Now?
The former Iona coach sustained the two month loss of All-Conference player Jeremy Hazell and still managed to finish with a 13-17 record (7-11 in conference) on the strength of a 5-6 close that included wins over Syracuse, St. John's and Marquette. The conference welcomed four new coaches into their ranks last season, and Willard coached his charges to a Big East Tournament seed higher than two of them. The Pirates return 46.2% of their 2010-11 minutes and 45.7% of their scoring, nearly 10% below the conference-wide average. Worse, the staff has no transfers (or JUCOs...) available this season. The staff does welcome a five man, point guard-heavy freshman class, the most highly regarded of whom, Aaron Cosby (6-2, 195 lbs) out of Northfield-Mt. Hermon in Massachusetts, will no doubt have an opportunity to play this season, whether as the off guard to senior Jordan Theodore (30.2 MPG, 11.0 PPG, 4.4 APG), or at the point while Theodore roams and looks for his shot. Starting #4 Herb Pope (27.1 MPG, 9.8 PPG, 7.9 RPG) also returns, hopefully 100% recovered from the 2010 off season hospitalization that seemed to impair him through the 2010-11 season. Sophomore wing forward Fuquan Edwin (24.7 MPG, 7.9 PPG, 3.3 RPG) who received a baptism of fire last season, is a third returnee with starting experience. Look for sophomore forwards Patrik Auda and Aaron Geramipoor to assume larger roles in the rotation this season. Auda, a Euro-style #4, averaged 15 minutes in 24 appearances last season, as he converted three point attempts at a 40% clip in a very limited offensive role for Willard's squad. Freshman forward Brandon Mobley is rehabbing from a summer league injury (and surgery), while Kevin Johnson (6-9, 240 lbs) will see time at the #4/#5. Look for the freshmen guards Freddie Wilson (6-2, 175 lbs), Sean Grennan (6-2, 170 lbs) and Haralds Karlis (6-5, 185 lbs) to see some rotation time early. Karlis, like Geramipoor and Auda, is a graduate of the Canarias Basketball Academy.

The Pirates have an early test at the Charleston Classic, an early season invitational set with a surprisingly (if Dan Hanner's projections are accurate) even field. LSU, Northwestern and Georgia Tech are the "name" teams, but Saint Joseph's, Tulsa and VCU (Seton Hall's first opponent) and the Pirates have good chances to advance to the finals. Three wins against that field would be an early lift to the program. Auburn (Big East/SEC Challenge), Wake Forest and a road game at Dayton round out the out of conference schedule. A more experienced Dayton squad beat the Pirates at the Rock last December, but with a rookie coach and a depleted squad, the Pirates have a chance to bolster their RPI if they can take that game. Seton Hall drew Connecticut, DePaul and Rutgers (a traditional rival) as their mirror opponents in conference play, a combination that they could go 4-2, but should do no worse than 3-3. 2-4 should be cause for worry if the Pirates want to improve on the 7-11 they posted last season. A home slate of Louisville, Pittsburgh and Notre Dame will be tough, but the Pirates should have chances against Georgetown, St. John's and West Virginia. Georgetown and St. John's could be tie breakers. With a road slate that includes Cincinnati, Marquette, Providence, South Florida, Syracuse and Villanova, the Pirates are going to need at least three wins, especially if they log a 2-4 record versus the mirrors.

St. John's -- The Morning After
Steve Lavin and his staff put their biggest question ("The Players or the Plays?") to rest last season. No matter what happens this season, Red Storm fans will know things can and will improve as the very good (but given October news, not excellent-to-epic) freshman class matures. 2011-12 however is going to be a tough year for the Johnnies. Note the adjective was "tough", not "ugly". At 2.68 years last season Coach Lavin's squad was ranked #3 in Division I for experience. Of the 6,625 minutes played last season, St. John's returns 319 (No, that's not a typo...) of them this season. That is 4.8% of the 2010-11 minutes. Which should rank the Johnnies somewhere around #340 (out of #345) this season. 4.8% is better than the 3.7% scoring they return -- Malik Stith is a pass-first point guard. Coach Lavin has two JUCOs, center God'sgift Achiuwa, a 6-8, 230 pound Nigerian by way of Erie CC and lead guard Nurideen Lindsey, a 6-3 Philly guard bound for La Salle out of high school who did a year at Redlands CC in Oklahoma before heading back East (and to St. John's). Lindsey and Achiuwa (and Stith) is a start, but the rest of the rotation (and starting lineup!) will be filled out with freshmen. If the Johnnies' exhibition games are predictive, look for Stith and Lindsey to start in the back court, along with freshman D'Angelo Harrison, a 6-3, 202 pound guard out of Texas, 6-8 wing Maurice Harkless (a New York City native who prepped at South Kent in Connecticut) and Achiuwa to man the front court. 6-6 wing Detroit native Sir'Dominic Pointer a distinct possibility to start should the staff want a four guard look. Freshman Phil Greene, a 6-2 Chicagoan and returning junior Jamil White, a walk on last season who played five minutes will round out the back court rotation. Coach Steve Lavin was diagnosed with prostate cancer, and after undergoing surgery in late October, will pursue a course of post surgery treatment and rehabilitation before returning to the bench. Assistant Coach Mike Dunlap directs the program during Lavin's recuperation. Three late September casualties of the NCAA clearing house, Amir Garrett (a 6-6, 190 pound #3), Norvel Pelle (a 6-10 200 pound #4) and Jakarr Sampson (a 6-8, 200 pound small forward) were removed from the roster admist some confusion about their relationship with St. John's going forward. The program has eight scholarship players (plus two walk ons -- Gerard Rivers and Sam Sealy-James, a 6-8 195 pound forward) available for the exhibition games and the season. A quick look at the exhibition box scores suggests the offense will be Lindsey and whoever is hot that night. The transfer took >30% of the possessions and about 24% shots when he was on the court (with >82% of the minutes at point, that's a lot of time...) with Harrison and Harkless as the clear second and third options. The rotation of Achuiwa, Lindsey, Harkless, Harrison and Boothe took at least 65% of the minutes in both exhibitions (St. Mary's of Maryland and C.W. Post), with Pointer taking 65% of the minutes in the second game. Lindsey, tabbed as a potential NBA'er by virtually every coach who has mentored him, was inefficient with his possessions, logging sub 1.00 point per possession in each of the two outings. It won't get better as the competition improves.

The Johnnies will face Arizona and then either Texas A&M or Mississippi State in the 2K Coaches versus Cancer Classic, the first of two BCS-level tests they face in the out of conference schedule, to be followed by Big East/SEC Challengeinduced trip to Kentucky in early December. A late December loss to cross town rival Fordham proved to be a fluke last season. A similar result this season will be a harbinger. Mirrors with Cincinnati, DePaul and Georgetown could yield a record as good as 5-1 or as poor as 1-5 (where Pomeroy projects them right now). 2-4 is a more reasonable projection. The home slate (mirrors excluded) of Louisville, Notre Dame, Providence, Syracuse, Villanova and West Virginia will not yield more than two wins, while the road slate (again mirrors excluded), Connecticut, Marquette, Pittsburgh, Rutgers, Seton Hall and South Florida would probably have been more useful as the home slate this season. The most favorable opponents, Rutgers, Seton Hall and South Florida would be easier to take at the Garden (or the Carnesseca), but on the road the Johnnies may be able to grab one (two maybe?) wins. Six or seven conference wins might be the Red Storm's ceiling this season. With a minimum number necessary to run full practices available, the roster has to be a concern going forward.

Villanova -- Funky February, part 2
I decided to run the same efficiency numbers (offensive points per possession, defensive points per possession, difference margin -- by month -- for the two seasons since Villanova's Final Four appearance. Won/loss totals are interesting (and more dramatic than Georgetown -- see above), but the efficiency margin and decline of the defense are the eye catching numbers here...

		Efficiency
Month	Pace	Off	Def	Margin	PWP
November	71.7	1.112	0.866	0.251	0.949
December	70.8	1.150	0.930	0.220	0.920
January	70.2	1.148	1.022	0.127	0.793
February	68.5	1.072	1.073	-0.002	0.496
March	62.5	1.021	1.075	-0.054	0.355

I added the pace (possessions per 40 minute game) for the 'Cats, as the number of possessions seemed to correlate with the Pythagorean Winning Percentage. The two values actually track very closely -- as the number of possessions declines, Villanova becomes less dominent on either side of the ball. The specific reasons for this are not necessarily "in the numbers", but while fans have noticed the decline in offensive efficiency, the decline in defense tends to have been more pronounced. Player injuries or fatigue? Midseason modifications in offensive strategy (dubbed "The Burn" given the tendency to delay the offensive set until well into the shot clock)? Loss of cohesion or confidence? All have been cited at one point or another over the past two seasons. The cause may not be clear, but the effect is crystal.

Coach Wright will work with 44.1% of last season's minutes and 43.5% of the points scored. Irrespective of the late season collapse, the Class of 2011 graduated three 1,500 point scorers, the first in the program's 91 year history. On the heels of 2,200 point scorer Scottie Reynold's graduation in 2010, the three players (all juniors) who have logged at least one start over the past two seasons have enormous roles to fill. The Wildcats have the outside and inside set with Maalik Wayns (30.1 MPG, 13.8 PPG, 4.5 APG) manning the point and Mouphtaou Yarou (24.1 MPG, 8.4 PPG, 7.1 RPG) anchoring the low post. 6-6 wing Dom Cheek (19.4 MPG, 5.6 PPG, 3.4 RPG) started two games in Corey Stokes' absence and will start at the #2 or #3 this season, depending on how big the staff wants to go. The last two starting spots will most likely go to sophomore James Bell (9.1 MPG, 2.4 PPG, 1.3 RPG) a 6-6 wing, dubbed a "defensive specialist" by U19 coach Paul Hewitt. Bell started all of the nine games in the U19 World Championship Tournament last summer, averaging over 16 minutes per game. He will most likely take the other wing spot alongside Cheek. Red shirt freshman JayVaughn Pinkston, a (6-7, 260 lbs) physical foward will most likely start at the power forward spot. Though rusty and undersized, Pinkston has the footwork skills to cover smaller players and after some conditioning, the muscle and bounce to defend larger forwards. Four freshmen, Tyronne Johnson (6-3, 185 pounds, point guard), Darrun Hilliard (6-6, 205 pounds, off guard), Achraf Yacoubou (6-4, 210 pounds, off guard) and Markus Kennedy (6-9, 260 pounds, power forward), along with returning junior #4/#5 Maurice Sutton (10.6 MPG, 2.4 PPG, 2.3 RPG) should, given the short bench, draw a good deal of playing time this season. Expect Sutton and Kennedy to see regular minutes in a low post rotation, while Johnson will spell Wayns, and either Hilliard and/or Yacoubou backing up Bell and Cheek. Ideally a program will bring in a consistent 3-4 players each season, but due largely to transfers (injury/discipline and an early departure in 2009), the incoming classes have varied widely, ranging from one (last season) to five (this season; four freshmen plus Pinkston). The squad this season has no seniors, four juniors, one sophomore and five freshmen.

The Wildcats will face Cincinnati, Marquette and South Florida as mirror opponents, a draw that would have been popular had it happened in either of the last two seasons...this season, not so much. A 3-3 record (sweep USF -- who ironically eliminated the Wildcats in the Big East Tournament last March -- and split with either the Bearcats or Warriors) would seem reasonable, though Ken Pomeroy projects a 4-2 outcome (sweep USF and split with Marquette & Cincinnati). A home slate that includes (minus the mirrors) Connecticut (the third consecutive President's Day meeting between the two rivals), DePual, Notre Dame, Providence, Seton Hall and Syracuse should yield no worse than a 3-3 record. 4-2 would be very good news (and suggest the 'Cats have solved their Funky February problem). The road slate includes stops at Georgetown, Louisville, Pittsburgh, Rutgers (ahhh revenge!), St. John's and West Virginia could produce a record as ugly as 1-5. Going 3-3 would be very good news (and give the 'Cats a win ceiling of 11), but given the Wildcats' historic difficulties winning at the Peterson Center (Pittsburgh), at Louisville and in the Colusium (West Virginia), accounting for the unpredicted loss yields a 2-4 record.

Most Likely to...(and why):
To Move Up a Quartile... -- Either Georgetown or Villanova. Their game (scheduled for the Verizon Center on February 25) may well decide who moves up and who "stays down" in a match that will probably become a comparison game for the Selection Committee. Both teams face replacing program mainstays this season, and who makes progress throughout the conference season will most likely take the game.

Move Down a Quartile... -- St. John's. The Johnnies are really, really thin, relying on walk ons to assemble enough bodies to scrimmage in practice. Big Apple Buckets optimism aside, the Big East is not the Pac-12; there will not be many off nights in the conference, as every team has physical forward/centers. Even if either Pelle or Garrett qualify for the spring (I am not holding out hope on this), how effective would either be without the requisite conditioning and game experience? Injury at this level (virtually every team has taken an injury hit or two this off season) is too common, and for the Johnnies, it could turn a "tough" season into an "ugly" one.

Mia Culpa, Mia Maxima Culpa, 2011

Confessions & Observations...
I am a bit late with the previews this time around. The preseason was pre-empted with news and speculation about team movements among three BCS conferences and two-to-three nonBCS conferences, a process that seemed at times to take all of the oxygen out of the room. An especially distressing development as I was again reminded of the miniscule impact basketball had on the calculus of movement. Time to take a quick review of last season...

	2010-11 Actual					Proj.
Team	W	L	Pct	Seed	Qtl	Qtl
Cincinnati	11	7	0.611	7	2	3
Connecticut	9	9	0.500	9	3	3
DePaul	1	17	0.056	16	4	4
Georgetown	10	8	0.556	8	2	1
Louisville	12	6	0.667	4	1	2
Marquette	9	9	0.500	11	3	2
Notre Dame	14	4	0.778	2	1	3
Pittsburgh	15	3	0.833	1	1	1
Providence	4	14	0.222	14	4	4
Rutgers	5	13	0.278	13	4	4
Seton Hall	7	11	0.389	12	3	3
St. John's	12	6	0.667	5	2	2
South Florida	3	15	0.167	15	4	4
Syracuse	12	6	0.667	4	1	2
Villanova	9	9	0.500	10	3	1
West Virginia	11	7	0.611	6	2	1

Through a Looking Glass Darkly...
Ugh. It was a great season for the conference, as the Big East pulled down 11 invitaitons to the NCAA post season tournament, a record high for a conference, and with 68.8% of the members drawing bids, a record for post season money earned. Too bad the conference struggled in tournament play, moving only Marquette as far as the Sweet Sixteen last March. Though talk throughout the season centered on the notion that 11 bids were possible, I was a bit late to the party. I believed that the teams not invited would have to absorb a large number of losses (to insure most of the conference would have at least a 0.500 record) while those likely to draw the bids would have to split amongst themselves. Insuring the "perfect storm", the balance of Division I would have to relatively poor by comparison. It seems Division I was accomodating (unexpectedly) -- consider Butler, despite an unsteady 3-4 start that included a loss to Evansville, nevertheless ran to a consecutive Final Four, upsetting Pittsburgh before falling to #9 ranked (in conference play) Connecticut in the Championship Game. Within the Big East, sorting out the teams doomed to struggle was far easier than identifying the teams that would succeed.

Misses Mostly...
If I predicted the fourth quartile to the team, I missed pretty badly elsewhere. Of the four teams projected for first quartile finishes (Georgetown, Pittsburgh, Villanova and West Virginia), two (Georgetown and West Virgnia) finished in the second quartile while one (sigh, Villanova) fell all the way to the third quartile. I did manage to identify one second quartile finisher correctly (Cincinnati, though I would not have guessed they would finish higher than Villanova) to go with two third quartile finishers (Connecticut! -- right answer, wrong reason -- and Seton Hall). Notre Dame, a third quartile team in my projection ran to an excellent 14-4 record to finish #2, good for a BET bye seed and first quartile finish. I correctly placed half of the conference (within a quartile), but missed by two quartiles on two teams. Ouch.

What's Next
I decided to revert to a quartile-by-quartile preview, providing thumbnails of each team projected to finish in that specific quartile. The quartile previews will be posted over the course of this week. Other projects took time normally devoted to preparing the team-by-team previews, and I anticipated the addition of Texas Christian would preclude another oppportunity to preview the conference by fourths. Correct answer again, but for the wrong reason.

Rising Seniors -- Eight to Watch

What I Am Looking For
Last March's "All-Big East'rs" Ashton Gibbs, Darius Odom-Johnson and Kris Joseph won't make this list. Neither will Kevin Jones or Tim Abromaitis. Everybody knows them, and everyone will have them on their "Best in" or "Top" list in the next two and a half months. The Big East coaches and AP writers will vote them to a variety of "All" preseason teams. They have already been a bullet on ESPN's "Keys to the Game" pre-game analysis, and will probably continue their bullet status this season. They made their marks during their freshmen or sophomore or junior seasons. Those "name" guys decided to come back and most will reap the rewards of returning to finish their education and eligibility. But every season a Hilton Armstrong, or an Andy Rautins, a Jon Wallace or a Dante Cunningham lands in the national press (and picks up a post season Big East award or two) seemingly out of nowhere. Invisible to many except their team's fans, these seniors tend to start somewhere back in that freshman pack, or labor in the vinyards of a low ranking team, but unlike their classmates, they (and their team?) improve quietly every season. By Pomeroy's classification system they may start as a "Role", "Limited Role" or even "Invisible" player, and grow into a "Major" player or "Go-to Guy" over the course of their four years. Pomeroy discusses growth "probabilities" in "Putting Individual Efficiency into Perspective" over at The Basketball Prospectus in 2007. These guys tend to push at the upper limit of their growth curve each season. The Jon Wallaces and Orinze Onuakus -- are drawing a good share of the minutes at their position going into their senior seasons and they are drawing somewhere between 18% - 20% of the possessions when they are on the floor. They may lurk off the MSM's radar, but their coaches and teammates know who they are, look for them on the floor...and trust them with the ball.

			On Offense...
Player	School	%Min	ORtg	%Poss	%Shot	PPWS
Jae Crowder	MU	68.8	120.1	19.8	22.6	1.13
Dion Dixon	'Nati	66.8	112.7	22.4	24.6	1.08
Chris Smith	'Ville	63.8	110.0	19.7	18.9	1.12
Yancy Gates	'Nati	67.2	108.8	22.9	24.3	1.07
Jason Clark	GTown	76.1	107.4	20.5	22.1	1.20
Nasir Robinson	Pitt	54.8	103.5	21.9	20.5	1.10
Scott Martin	NDU	73.0	101.0	18.5	20.1	1.03
Jordan Theodore	Hall	75.0	98.6	22.8	20.3	1.05

Dion Dixon fits the profile, each season (except for Lance Stevenson's single year in the Queen City...) his role with the Bearcats has grown. Securing 22.4% of the possessions and just under a quarter of the shots last season should have put Dixon on an "All" team if not for a slew of seniors (with better name recognition?) ahead of him in line. And also a Bearcat or two who drew conference and media attention. For Cincinnati to rub shoulders with the conference elites (seeds #1-#4) in 2012, Dixon and Gates (and rising sophomre Sean Kirkpatrick along with a few others...) will have to have very good seasons. And while we are in southeastern Ohio, Yancy Gates is another name that will appear on a preseason list or two. Gates, whose self-made demons held him back for a couple of seasons made significant strides last season. This time around the forward/center should do even better. vbtn is firmly in the pro-Gates Line this preseason. Marquette's Jae Crowder is another Buzz Williams JUCO/transfer the fourth year coach has a habit of pulling out of thin air (or so it seems). Two seasons of conference play may not be enough to turn heads among the conference's large media following, but every one of Marquette's conference opponents know they will have to account for him in their gameplans. Given Coach Pitino's penchant for stockpiling players are certain positions, Chris Smith has been victimized a bit by competition with rising junior Mike Mara and fellow rising senior Kyle Kuric. If Smith, whose shot and possession rates (Shot% & Poss%) are on the high side of "role player" will probably need more playing time and opportunities to score to grow into a major contributor or significant contributor level player. Preston Knowles is gone, but freshman Wayne Blackshear will press him for playing time at the #2. .

			Four Factors...
						FTA
Player	School	%Min	eFG%	OR%	TO%	FGA
Jae Crowder	MU	68.8	54.9	9.5	8.6	38.3
Dion Dixon	'Nati	66.8	49.1	5.1	13.0	38.4
Chris Smith	'Ville	63.8	53.4	6.7	18.9	33.6
Yancy Gates	'Nati	67.2	51.7	9.3	12.7	42.0
Jason Clark	GTown	76.1	57.2	4.7	21.0	25.9
Nasir Robinson	Pitt	54.8	54.8	9.5	19.8	54.3
Scott Martin	NDU	73.0	49.1	4.0	16.8	32.0
Jordan Theodore	Hall	75.0	47.5	2.6	22.4	33.6

An offensive rebounding rate of 9.3 and higher is a Top 500 ranking per Ken Pomeroy -- Gates, Crowder and Pittusburgh's small forward Nasir Robinsin are reasons their teams rank in the upper half of the conference for rebounding. Robinson's offensive rating is hurt by his turnovers (and lack of playing time due to an absent three point shot?) a byproduct of his close-to-the-basket play, but with more mobile front court mates and versatile forwards, Robinson should see more time this season. Crowder's and Gate's lack of turnovers, despite their play in the front court is encouraging, especially when considered with their offensive rebounding, each presents some strong scoring opportunities for their teams. For Jordan Theodore to garner more favorable recognition in the conference, he will need to dampen his turnover rate, as will Georgetown wing Jason Clark, whose outstanding shot efficiency (eFG% -- 57.2%) is tempered by his tendency to lose the ball.

		Miscellaneous...
Player	School	Ast%	DR%	Blk%	Stl%
Jae Crowder	MU	11.4	18.7	3.3	2.7
Dion Dixon	'Nati	15.0	8.3	0.1	2.4
Chris Smith	'Ville	18.0	13.3	0.4	2.0
Yancy Gates	'Nati	10.3	21.1	5.1	1.8
Jason Clark	GTown	11.7	11.2	0.7	2.9
Nasir Robinson	Pitt	10.5	13.7	0.4	1.2
Scott Martin	NDU	12.2	13.8	1.0	1.0
Jordan Theodore	Hall	30.4	8.6	0.2	2.5

Scott Martin had to sit a year as a Purdue transfer. The rising senior suffered an injury on the eve of the 2010 season, and came into 2011 off of a two year layover. Though he was rusty last season, as his rebounding suggested, and fitting into a rotation that had Ben Hansbrough and Tim Abromaitis available offensively no doubt limited his scoring oppportunities, Scott has another year to condition and as Hansbrough has graduated, should see a larger role in Notre Dame's offense. Theordore's assist rate is impressive and his defensive rebounding rate is not too shabby for a point guard. Now if he can get the turnovers under control and improve his shooting, the Hall will benefit immensely in conference play.

Hits & Misses...Last Year's List
Marshon Brooks exploded offensively and became one of the few bright spots (along with a win over Villanova...) in Providence's otherwise lackluster season. Brooks was named to the All-Big East First Team, along with "vbtn Watch List" mate Dwight Hardy from St. John's (who also took home the Big East's "Most Improved Player" award). Most of the Johnnies' limelight however, shone on "vbtn Watch List" member DJ Kennedy, who hit a runner at the buzzer against Pittsburgh in the Garden that put St. John's back into the Top 25 (and sealed their invitation to the Dance?). A season-ending injury three weeks later sidelined Kennedy and took a bit of wind out of the Red Storm. Rick Jackson and Brad Wannamaker made the All-Big East Second Team, with Jackson earning the "Defensive Player" award and Wannamaker honored with the conference's "Sportsmanship" award. Though Chris Wright was named to the All-Big East Third Team, the Hoyas' season sputtered at the end, giving Wright no opportunities for heriocs. The same can be said for Villanova's Antonio Pena, also named to the "vbtn Watch List". Though the bfc started the entire season, the Wildcats looked in vain for low post offense when their perimeter players were slowed (or sidelined) with nicks and dents. The Wildcats were trapped in a death spiral as the regular season slipped into the post season. Scoop Jardine decided to take all of his eligibility and return for a fifth year. Gilbert Brown had a decent season, though he did not have the breakthrough that fans predicted each of the four seasons he spent with the Panthers. Caught covering Butler's Shawn Vanzant late in their second round game, Brown could not prevent Vanzant's pass to Adam Smith whose bucket put Butler up for good, and sent Pittsburgh home in the first weekend.

The Big East Conference 2012 -- Home & Road Opponents

Who Drew a Short Straw?
Most of the commentary about conference opponents has devolved into a recitation of the opposing slate laced with opinions (with a heavy reliance on memory and recollection...) of whether this player is returning, that recruit will make an impact and the other team was good/bad or will be better/worse than they were last season. With the many of the the "summer report" cycle winding down, many of the academic casualties going into the fall semester still unannounced, the NCAA Clearing House yet to process many in the incoming class, there is more speculation than fact available when looking at the home-away slates...

Maters of Their Domains?
Win the home games -- one of the first rules of conference play, comes into play every season. Running the home slate will not guarantee a top finish in conference play (think of Louisville's 9-0 record at the Yum! last season; the Cards still finished in a three-way tie for third and took the #4 seed at Madison Square Garden), but doing just better than 0.500 will not get your team into the bye seeds (think Villanova's #9 seed on a 5-4 home record). If your team is expected to challenge for a bye seed, which suggests your favorites ought to be able to go toe-to-toe with the conference heavyweights (...which would suggest your team is one of the conference heavyweights...), then common sense would dictate that the toughest opponents should come to visit. On homecourt your guys have the high ground. On the other hand, you your team is struggling for respectability, and a place in the post season conversation, then running up a big home court record (and taking your lumps on the road...) would be the better strategy...assuming your guys can keep it respectable on the road. Excluding the mirrors (I looked at those pairings in an earlier post), which teams got a draw that works for their strategy? I looked at home opponents...

	Opps	Ret.
Team	PWP	Min%	Comments
Seton Hall	0.448	0.491	'Ville, NDU & Pitt!
DePaul	0.441	0.645	Not a good draw for needs
St. John's	0.421	0.631	Thrown into the deep end?
Syracuse	0.414	0.519	What they want
Connecticut	0.408	0.494	A puzzle?
Rutgers	0.396	0.556	'Nati & Cuse
Marquette	0.387	0.476	A rebuilding year?
Notre Dame	0.380	0.687	A lot of routs in South Bend
Georgetown	0.369	0.556	RU, USF & PC...
Louisville	0.366	0.538	Swap Rutgers for 'Nati?
West Virginia	0.363	0.612	'Vill & 'Nati toughest
Providence	0.362	0.547	Host the Huskies
South Florida	0.352	0.432	Favorable for Bulls?
Cincinnati	0.337	0.678	Returning mins high
Villanova	0.331	0.661	See above
Pittsburgh	0.330	0.486	Cincinnati and...?!

The table orders the conference by average Pythagorean Winning Percentage (PWP) of the non-mirror visiting teams. I also averaged that slate's returning minutes, to give myself an idea of whether each team would face a home slate with personnel similar to the personnel they faced in 2011. The conference average for returning minutes next season (as of July...) is 56.1%. The results brought a few surprises.

One of the more interesting questions is where Connecticut will fit in 2012. The Huskies, who finished #9 in the conference last season with a 4-5 road record, and will not have the services of Kemba Walker (or Jamal Coombs-McDaniels) next season, remain an enigma. Georgetown, Louisville and Villanova may count themselves lucky in that they get to host a sophomore-dominated squad next season without having to take a rematch in Storrs. St. John's, which returns all of 4.8% of their 2011 minutes (and 3.7% of their scoring), is another wildcard. Coach Steve Lavin will have an extremely talented -- but extremely young -- roster to mold. The Red Storm sported a relatively modest 0.333 road PWP last season, even lower than their 4-5 record would suggest. But given the virtual makeover for 2012, even 0.333 may be an overstatement. Will Marquette, Pittsburgh and Seton Hall regret not drawing the Johnnies at the Garden as a swap for say Notre Dame, Syracuse and Cincinnati (repsectively)? Though most expect Pittsburgh to contend again next season (Jamie Dixon has the best conference record of any Big East coach over the past five seasons), the Panthers cannot look to a favorable schedule mix as a boost. Of their non-mirror visitors, Cincinnati (0.447), Georgetown (0.425) and Villanova (0.405) have the highest road PWPs in 2011 conference games. Of those three, only the Bearcats return more than the conference average for minutes next season. For Cincinnati, the high percentage of returning minutes, combined with high percentage of returning scoring from their visitors will make matching their 2011 conference home record (6-3) a challenge. If the Bearcats want to move into the conference elites however, they will have to dominate that slate.

...And On the Road
The road strategy reverses for those aspiring to bye bids -- take the weakest teams in their buildings. For those struggling in conference play, opportunities to win are maximized at home, so take the conference elites on the road and hope to stem the bleeding in the low double digits...

	Opps	Ret.
Team	PWP	Min%	Comments
Louisville	0.710	0.484	St. John's & WVU skew mins
Notre Dame	0.706	0.471	Johnnies, Hoyas & Hall
Villanova	0.692	0.449	Johnnies, Hoyas & RU skew
DePaul	0.683	0.525	What Demons need?
Providence	0.679	0.503	Good for need?
Georgetown	0.666	0.616	'Ville, Pitt & Cuse Oh my!
South Florida	0.643	0.653	DPU only road softie...
Rutgers	0.620	0.627	Matches bubble strategy
Pittsburgh	0.620	0.633	UConn, NDU & Cuse
Seton Hall	0.616	0.654	Cuse & Nova
Marquette	0.612	0.650	Irish, Orange & 'Eers
Syracuse	0.593	0.487	Good match to need
West Virginia	0.580	0.553	Cuse & Huskies
St. John's	0.567	0.555	If team struggles...ouch
Cincinnati	0.558	0.521	A good match for need
Connecticut	0.521	0.596	Tailored to need?

I calculated the PWP for road games (conference only) for each team and averaged those road PWPs for each team's slate of opponents. Again mirrors have been excluded.

For Connecticut, Syracuse, De Paul and Providence, the slate matches the strategy pretty well. The Demons and Friars want wins, and conceding road games to the stronger teams in the conference in exchange for favorable home matchups should be cause for little concern. Each drew a challenging road slate that features Cincinnati and Notre Dame. The Huskies and Orange, by contrast, want their weakest opponents on the road, on the assumption they will beat them no matter where they play. Both feature road games with Rutgers, but other fourth quartile finishers are listed among each team's mirrors. Coach Calhoun's squad will see the Bulls, who sport the weakest 2011 home PWP this side of De Paul. Coach Boeheim drew De Paul, owner of the weakest home PWP last season. Syracuse also drew rebuilding St. John's. If the Storm struggles, this could prove to be a hidden bonus.

Exclusions, Exceptions...ie The Fine Print
The dynamics of a team are not especially predictable. It is rarely in a coach's (or school's) interests to disclose that half the squad does not want to play ball with the other half, or is planning to transfer at the end of the season. Injuries have derailed a team's season and a player's career, and yet remain among the wildcards. Players sometimes behave badly, the type of situation that most fans see far more clearly after the fact than before. All of those however are random and absolutely unknowable. The as yet uncharted elements that can impact a team's ability to successfully navigate their conference schedule...
1. Chronology & Sequence -- will the team draw the easier opponents earlier or later in the conference season? The distribution of "difficulty" might seem even in the preseason or early season, but unknowable events can strengthen or weaken slate as the season progresses. Villanova looked like a world beater eight games into their 2011 conference slate, having taken down Syracuse by double digits on the road, but four weeks later they could not beat South Florida on a neutral court.
2. Home/Away Distribution -- Though the conference tries to schedule no more than two consecutive away games, circumstances can make that impossible. A school may schedule an away out of conference opponent at the beginning or end of an away sequence, adding a level of difficulty (TV money can cloud judgement that way).
3. Youth vs. Maturity -- Common wisdom suggests freshmen-dominated squads "wear out" in the latter stages of the season. Balance that nugget with a countervailing common wisdom notion that freshmen progress as the season lengthens (think Jeremy Lamb here). How can we use that information when determining if the 'Eers (who return 39% of their minutes and 45% of their scoring) will be a better team to host than visit? How about St. John's, which returns 5% or their minutes and 4% of their scoring?

Thoughts on the Wildcats' Slate
The home-road slates are a mixed bag that would help if Villanova proves to be a bubble team next season. The 'Cats, who bring back 52% of their playing time and 47% of their scoring should benefit from drawing a comparatively weak home slate. Leaving out the mirrors, the 'Cats should be able to handle Seton Hall and De Paul, two teams they barely beat at the end of the 2011 season, not to mention Providence, a team that cleaned their clocks, all on the road last season. A youngr Connecticut squad (the Huskies swept the 'Cats in 2011) will visit as well. On the road, Pitt and Louisville will be tough unless everything falls into place for the 'Cats. Georgetown will depend as much on how well the new Hoyas gell as on the Wildcats' maturity. Villanova will revisit Rutgers, a team that beat them in overtime last season, and as been mentioned before, the enigmatic Johnnies will pose a challenge.

Roster Moves -- After the NBA Draft Deadline

Outbound Undergraduates
The Spring Signing Period is over, and the deadline for undergraduates to pull their names from the NBA draft has come and gone. The rosters of the Big East are hardly complete, but with the NBA draftees known and the first wave of outbound transfers identified, it seems a good time to pause and take stock of who (graduating seniors aside...) who else will not return to school in the fall. The Big East's undergraduate contribution to NBA draft list this time around seems light, and that is a good thing. The transfer list on the other hand, seems about as big as prior seasons (2009, when the economic uncertainties persuaded nearly everyone, coaches and players alike, to put "moving plans" on hold, excepted), depressingly so. The usual suspects (South Florida, Louisville, Georgetown) contribute their fair share to the outbound migration...

Connecticut

Player	Hgt	Pos	Class	Dest.
Jamal Coombs-McDaniel	6-7	Forward	Soph.	Trans - TBD
Kemba Walker	6-0	Guard	Junior	NBA

Though a junior, most in the Huskie Nation believed this would be Kemba Walker's last season in Storrs. The dynamic guard did not disappoint, delivering Coach Jim Calhoun a third National Championship before declaring for the NBA draft. If Walkers' departure was anticipated, Jamal Coombs-McDaniel's exit was not. Connecticut voluntarily surrendered a men's basketball scholarship as part of the penalty in the Nate Miles Affair. News in mid-May that their APR fell below the NCAA-mandated limit of 825 meant that the Huskies would yield two more next season. That leaves Coach Jim Calhoun with 10 scholarships to distribute next season. For a coach used to having a rotation of 10 or 11 players available, next season should be a very different experience. Losing Coombs-McDaniel, a rising junior who has been a contributor for two seasons, will hurt.

DePaul

Player	Hgt	Pos	Class	Dest.
Michael Bizoukas	6-1	Guard	Junior	Missouri State

Michael Bizoukas is a red shirt junior holdover from the Coach Wainwright Era. A sometime starter over the course of his three seasons at DePaul, his role would most likely have been reduced as Coach Purnell brought in more players he took a more direct hand in recruiting. Bizoukas should be able to contribute right away at Missouri State,

Georgetown

Player	Hgt	Pos	Class	Dest.
Vee Sanford	6-3	Guard	Soph.	Dayton
Jerrelle Benimon	6-7	Forward	Soph.	Trans - TBD

Though neither of the sophomores, forward Jerrelle Benimon and guard Vee Sanford were (per Ken Pomeroy) significant contributors to the Hoya offense, the loss of both is yet another example of an ongoing problem at Georgetown in the Coach Thompson Era -- the outbound transfer of many supporting players. A too short bench has come back to bite the Hoyas at times in the last three seasons. The Hoyas anticipate having 12 scholarship players available in 2012, with five of those players incoming freshmen. An untimely injury or two can expose the squad.

Louisville

Player	Hgt	Pos	Class	Dest.
Terrence Jennings	6-10	Forward	Junior	NBA
George Goode	6-8	Forward	Junior	Trans - TBD

Though he played behind Samardo Samuels for two seasons and he did not have the impact season he might have wanted, junior forward Terrence Jennings declared for the NBA draft and will not return to Louisville next season. The status of red shirt junior George Goode however is less clear. Early in the off season the forward was linked with rising sophomore Russ Smith as a pair who would follow Assistant Coach Steve Masiello to Manhattan College, play immediately (5th year senior) and finish out his career in the MAAC. With the normally chaotic scholarship situation at Louisville (right now they have 12 "on scholarship", with two more "verbals" on tap...that does not include the three walk-ons) even more up in the air this off season, is it possible that Goode might be back? Stay tuned...



Marquette

Player	Hgt	Pos	Class	Dest.
Reggie Smith	6-0	Guard	Frosh.	UNLV
Erik Williams	6-7	Forward	Soph.	Sam Houston State

Freshman Reggie Smith had already settled in a UNLV before the start of the spring semester. Forward Erik Williams is another story. The Texan was little used during most of the season, accumulating about 11% of the available minutes at the #4 per Ken Pomeroy. Williams did earn 11 starts over the course of the season, though Cracked Sidewalks points out that "...Buzz Williams decided to start Williams at the beginning of each half in nine of MU's final 10 games to reduce Jae Crowder's penchant for foul trouble. During that stretch, only once did Williams log more than 10 minutes -- the home blowout of Providence -- and he failed to score in half of those contests...". A homecoming of sorts, Williams should find a larger offensive role at Sam Houston State. And Coach Buzz Williams will continue to draw Texas players up to Milwaukee.

Notre Dame

Player	Hgt	Pos	Class	Dest.
Carleton Scott	6-8	Forward	Junior	NBA

Limited to a role player and having an additional year of eligibility available, Carleton Scott nevertheless threw his lot with the NBA draft this spring. Noted for defensive rebounding and scoring inside the arc, as a veteran contributor Scott will be missed. But it could have been worse, Coach Brey and the Notre Dame faithful can look forward to one last season from fifth year senior Tim Abromaitis.

Pittsburgh

Player	Hgt	Pos	Class	Dest.
J.J. Richardson	6-7	Forward	Soph.	Houston

Though he tore up the courts in the Panthers' Irish Tour last summer, JJ Richardson had difficulty carving his niche in the rotation with sophomore Dante Taylor, junior Nasir Robinson and red shirt freshman Talib Zanna ahead of him. A native of Texas, Richardson decided to go home and try again with Houston.

Seton Hall

Player	Hgt	Pos	Class	Dest.
Anali Okoloji	6-8	Forward	Frosh.	George Mason
Ferrakohn Hall	6-8	Forward	Soph.	Memphis

Sophomore Ferrakohn Hall was a reluctant recruit dating back to his freshman season, the tumultuous last season for Coach Bobby Gonzalez. Persuaded to try another season, Hall lasted a semester and decided to transfer back home, finding a place in Coach Josh Pastner's Memphis program. Anali Okoloji was an early recruit for current Coach Kevin Willard, but freshman forward saw only spot minutes playing behind fellow freshman Patrik Auda.

South Florida

Player	Hgt	Pos	Class	Dest.
Mike Burwell	6-6	Guard	Soph.	Towson
Shedrick Haynes	6-0	Guard	Junior	Tarleton St.

Like St. John's under former coach Norm Roberts, the South Florida program is acquiring a turnstile-like quality. The latest outbound transfers include sophomore guard Mike Burwell and JUCO Shedrick Haynes. Though he appeared in 31 of the Bulls' 33 games (and started five), Burwell logged a total of 251 minutes, averaging about eight minutes per appearance. Haynes appeared in 25 games, averaging about six minutes per appearance. Both should see more playing time at their next stop. Coach Stan Heath has replacements lined up already.

St. John's

Player	Hgt	Pos	Class	Dest.
Dwayne Polee	6-7	Forward	Frosh.	Trans - TBD
Quincy Roberts	6-5	Guard	Soph.	Trans - TBD

From viturally his first week on the job, St. John's Coach Steve Lavin has been shaking up the recruiting trail, compiling an impressive list of signees. While most understood that his very large 2010 senior class would require a large incoming 2011-12 class to replace them, few expected to see even more roster spots created by outbound transfers. Sophomore guard Quincy Roberts showed flashes in his freshman season, but an injury sidelined him in Coach Norm Roberts' last season, and the red shirt sophomore appeared in four games in the 2011 season, so his transfer is not a surprise. Freshman Dwayne Polee was one of the players the Red Storm staff consciously groomed for leadership going into the 2012 season. One of the few returning players with starting responsibilities in 2011, Polee seemed to be a player the staff looked to to form the nucleus of the next generation of St. John's teams.

West Virginia

Player	Hgt	Pos	Class	Dest.
Dan Jennings	6-8	Forward	Soph.	Trans - TBD
Dalton Pepper	6-5	Guard	Soph.	Temple

The subject of frequent transfer rumors in his freshman year, Dalton Pepper finally pulled the trigger after the 2011 season. At one time recruited by virtually all of Philadelphia's Division 1 teams, Pepper's eventual decision to cast his lot with Coach Fran Dunphy and his Temple Owls is entirely reasonable. Fellow sophomore Dan Jennings appeared in 14 games last season, starting in four. Jennings was most active in the Mountaineers' out of conference schedule, but left the bench two minutes into the second half of West Virginia's South Florida game and did not appear in any game after. Will he be missed? Not much according to Coach Bob Huggins.

Early Season Invitational Tournaments -- 2011-12

Where the Big East Will Play Their Exempt Games
A post over at John Templon's new blog venture, Big Apple Buckets put me on to Blogging the Bracket's Early Season Invitational page. Chris Dobbertean has pulled together information about the fields for 20 tournaments, along with seven campus-only round robin multi-team events (MTEs) that appear to be in the process of forming fields that qualify for exempt tournament status.

	Tournament	Gms	Dates
Cincinnati	Round Robin Event?	4	TBD
Connecticut	Battle 4 Atlantis	3	Nov. 23-27
DePaul	Old Spice Classic	3	Nov. 24, 25 & 27
Georgetown	Maui Invitational	4	Nov. 21-23 (& campus)
Louisville	Round Robin Event?	4	TBD
Marquette	Paradise Jam	4	Nov. 18-21
Notre Dame	CBE Classic	4	Nov. 21-22 (& campus)
Pittsburgh	TBD	-	NA
Providence	South Padre Invitational	4	Nov. 25-26 (& campus)
Rutgers	Cancun Challenge	4	Nov. 14-19 (campus); Nov. 22-23
Seton Hall	Charleston Classic	3	Nov. 17, 18, 20
South Florida	Hall of Fame Tip-Off	4	Nov. 12, 14, 19-20
St. John's	Coaches vs. Cancer Classic	4	2 pod; Nov. 17, 18
Syracuse	NIT Tip-Off	4	Nov. 23, 25 (& campus)
Villanova	76 Classic	3	Nov. 24, 25 & 27
West Virginia	Las Vegas Classic	3	Christmas time?

Notes & Observations1. The two tournaments noted with question marks are unconfirmed, but seem to have varying degrees of certainty per Dobbertean's post of 4/27/11. Cincinnati appears to have a two year commitment to an event named "Global Sports Shootout". This season the games will center on the Bearcats' homecourt at Fifth-Third. Louisville, per Dobbertean, is close to forming/hosting an MTE of it's own out of the KFC Center in Louisville, which makes sense as the arena is brand new and Louisville scheduled quite a few events there last season. Pittsburgh appears to be the only Big East team not committed to an invitational tournament at this time.
2. The Battle 4 Atlantis Tournament will premier this season. Set on Paradise Island, Bahamas, the tournament will feature a possible match-up of Connecticut and Massachusetts. Those two regional rivals have not played since December of 2005. The series, which spanned 100 years and 108 games, has been on "hiatus" for the past five years.
3. The Las Vegas Classic is also new this season, and, like the Diamond Head Classic in Hawaii, will be played during the Christmas season, rather than over Thanksgiving. That tournament will also feature a campus-hosted preliminary round that will precede the final two rounds in Las Vegas. Three hosting teams (Baylor, Missouri State and West Virginia) are the only teams committed so far. The sponsors need to find five more teams to fill out the field.
4. Syracuse, a team (like Pittsburgh) with a reputation for staying close to home in the season's first two months, will, according to Dobbertean (via John Rothstein), participate in the NIT Tip-Off. The preliminary round(s) are hosted at a campus site (perfect for the Carrier Dome), with the semi-finals and finals at Madison Square Garden, and that fits Syracuse's preferences to a tee.
5. Villanova will participate in the 76 Classic in Anaheim, California over the Thanksgiving Weekend. The field...

Team	Conf		Team	Conf
Boston College	ACC		New Mexico	MWC
Oklahoma	Big 12		UC Riverside	Big West
Saint Louis	A-10		Santa Clara	WCC
Washington St.	PAC-10

Five teams in the field won 20 or more games in 2010, while Oklahoma will have a new coach. Featured coaches in the field include Saint Louis' Rick Majerus and Villanova's Jay Wright, both of whom have been to the Final Four.
6. Coming into May, the fields for only nine of the 20 tournaments listed at Blogging the Bracket are filled. Several of the campus + travel tournaments have yet to even fill out their "host" brackets, while several have identified half or less of their projected field. Commitments for these tournaments used to be given years in advance, and it was not uncommon for the field in the coming year to be announced at the end of the tournament. This off season there seem to be more than the usual number of open/available spots in a few of the more prestigious -- the Charleston Classic, the CvC Classic and the CBE for example -- which makes me wonder if the exempt tournament niche has reached the saturation point. The first wave of tournaments after exempt tournaments no longer needed to apply for waivers from the NCAA forced a number of the more exotic locations (Top of the World Shootout) out of the field. Will there be a similar shakeout in the next season or two?

On Second Thought -- Plotting Trendlines for Big East Teams (pt 2)

Through the Middle Section of the Conference
While there is something appealing about taking the conference by quartiles -- Big East observers have only another year or two for that approach -- I decided to look at the teams in three parts, taking about five teams with each look. The decision was not random, as the trendlines for teams grouped in this way, highlights a number of common elements...similar records & progressions. As in "Second Thoughts: Part 1" I have highlighted those (six this time...) teams discussed in this post in the year-end conference standings:

	W	L	Pct.
Pittsburgh	15	3	0.833
Notre Dame	14	4	0.776
Syracuse	12	6	0.667
Louisville	12	6	0.667
St. John's	12	6	0.667
Cincinnati	11	7	0.611
West Virginia	11	7	0.611
Georgetown	10	8	0.556
Connecticut	9	9	0.500
Villanova	9	9	0.500
Marquette	9	9	0.500
Seton Hall	7	11	0.389
Rutgers	5	13	0.278
Providence	4	14	0.222
South Florida	3	15	0.167
Cincinnati	1	17	0.056

(T6 #6) Cincinnati

Multiple intersecting trendlines suggest...

Third order polynomial trendlines tend to resist wild gyrations, which makes them a good tool for identifying "long term" trends. Cincinnati's season, per the trendline, suggests a mild slump around games 5 through 12, and indeed the Bearcats' record through that seven game stretch was 3-4 (they finished 11-7 and secured the #6 seed in the BET). Coach Mick Cronin, possibly the conference's strongest hot seat candidate going into the season, secured his tenure (at least in the near term) with a team performance that exceeded preseason expectations. An especially strong 5-1 finish of the conference regular season featured wins over Louisville, Marquette and twice over Georgetown, NCAA invitees all. The lone loss through that run was Connecticut, the team which also eliminated Cincinnati in the second round of the NCAA Tournament (and went on to win the National Championship).

(T9 #9) Connecticut

Ahhh, A double helix, perhaps?

The Huskies offer one of the more interesting trendlines from the conference season. Like many teams that finished in this middle third of the conference. Connecticut's trendlines suggest a team that was "evolving" as the season progressed. What sets Connecticut's trendlines apart from the usual in season slump is the suggestion the source of the "pause" was defense. Note the adjusted offensive trendline shows no signs of regressing through the season. The Huskies were one of two squads whose offense (adjusted for the competition) appeared to improve (no regression) over the course of the season.

(8 #8) Georgetown

A curved double intersection like Cincinnati's, but...

The adjusted chart suggests Coach John Thompson's squad peaked around the time of the Villanova game (game 9 on the chart), and then declined through the end of the season. The Hoyas finishd the 2011 season on a four game losing streak that began with the last two games of the conference season and continued through the Wednesday round in the Big East Tournament, culminating with their second consecutive first round of the NCAA Tournament. Junior guard Chris Wright missed three of the games through that stretch, but the chart suggests the offense was in full decline well before Wright missed games. Note the second intersection in the chart, around game 14, was an eight point loss (70-78) to Connecticut. The Huskies also eliminated the Hoyas in New York City exactly three weeks later.

(T9 #11) Marquette

Slump & recovery...

The adjusted chart suggests a decline/slump through much of the season, as Coach Buzz Williams' program bottomed out around the Georgetown game (game #12), then began a slow rebound through the end of the regular season. The Golden Eagles did finish the regular season on a two game losing streak, one that may well have put their NCAA bid on a bubble going into New York City. Marquette rebounded nicely however, running to the Sweet Sixteen where they fell, 81-63, to North Carolina.

(T9 #10) Villanova

The season-long slump?

The season-long decline of the Wildcats' offensive efficiency is clearer in the adjusted efficiency chart. Many of my post game analysis pointed to defensive lapses (also indicated in the trendlines), but the chart hints strongly the offensive decline was persistent and steady throughout the conference season. Stepping back a bit, the decline, from just under 120 (118?) down to about 101, was dramatic for an 18 game stretch. Unlike other teams in this group, there was no rebound...

(T6 #7) West Virginia

No double intersection here either

The trendlines suggest that West Virginia's offensive slump was well timed. The Mountaineers' record from games three through nine was 6-1, with an eye popping 89.9 adjusted defensive efficiency that masked a 10% decline in offensive efficiency during that time period. Coach Bob Huggins' squad finished the conference regular season with an 11-7 conference record (tied for #6 with Cincinnati, earning the 'Eers a #7 seed for the Big East Tournament). West Virginia earned a #5 seed to the NCAA Tournament and lost in the second round to Final Four-bound Kentucky.

Guest Contributor Ray Floriani: Big East Tournament, Day 2

by Ray Floriani

NEW YORK CITY - The action, recap and assorted numbers of importance from day two.

the Garden is packed!

The scores...

Team	Score			Team
UConn	79		62	Georgetown
St. John's	65		63	Rutgers
Cincinnati	87		61	South Florida
Marquette	67		61	West Virginia

Coverage in person was limited to the evening session. No need to remind anyone but the burning issue of the day was centered around the conclusion of the Rutgers-St.John's contest. Also, to little surprise, officiating was very much in the conversation.

Marquette's Darius Johnson-Odom
meets the media

Game of the Day -- Marquette & West Virginia
The pace and efficiency:

		Off.
	Poss.	Eff.
Marquette	61	110
West Virginia	61	100

The Four Factors:

		FTA
	eFG%	FGA	OR%	TO%
Marquette	52	33	31	16
West Virginia	49	22	28	21

Outstanding care of the ball by Marquette. Overall they had 10 turnovers. West Virginia had 13 but many were the variety of which you pay. Not just throwing the ball out of bounds but leading to an opposition score. Marquette had a 16-7 edge in points off turnovers. Not a huge difference but significant in a two possession game as this.

Defense was a big part, as noted, of Marquette's second half surge. West Virginia led 36-29 at the break but was held to a 78 offensive efficiency. The last eight minutes the Mountaineers managed two field goals. Both by John Flowers and one on an offensive rebound.

Offensively Junior Cadougan broke down the WVU defense by dribble penetration. The Marquette sophomore guard finished (15 points) and was able to find teammates, distributing 5 assists.

West Virginia coach Bob Huggins did a good job mixing defenses. Thought going to a late game 1-3-1 was a good move as it showed Marquette a different look. The 'look' appealed to Darius Johnson-Odom who buried two key three pointers that gave Buzz Williams' club 'separation'. Suffice to say Huggins was back in a man following that second three pointer.

The three was a big weapon for West Virginia. They shot better from beyond the arc than for the game overall.

	FG	Pct.
3 FGs	10-22	46%
Overall	20-51	39%

Kevin Jones paced the Mountaineers with 15 points. The 6-8 junior enjoyed the perimeter hitting 3 of 4. Jones shot 5 of 9 in total. Interestingly his two point percentage (2 of 5 for 40%) significantly trailed the 755 (3 of 4) he hit from downtown.

Cincinnati coach Mick Cronin

Notes
All right, here's the take on game two. Saw the replays but as a long time official (23 years) will only say the crew had a lot to discuss in their post game evaluation.

UConn enjoyed a healthy 115-94 efficiency advantage in the win over Georgetown. Kemba Walker of UConn had a game high 28 points and an impressive Manley efficiency of 28. Walker contributed more rebounds (6) than assists (3). UConn, a solid 17% TO rate. Georgetown, a 24% rate (having point guard Chris Wright out of the lineup is a significant setback) that did not help matters.

Rutgers had a notable 45% OReb percentage. The Scarlet Knights had a better TO rate (22%) than St. John's (24%). Damage was done as the Red Storm (still can't stand that name) had a 19-8 lead in points off turnovers.

Dwight Hardy paced St. John's with 17 points. Hardy was only 5 of 17 from the floor (0-3 from three) but did go 7-9 from the line.

Cincinnati shot 64% from two point range, holding South Florida to a 37% mark from the same area. Bulls lost point guard Anthony Crater (a familiar name to Villanova faithful) late in the first half due to an injury. South Florida trailed by 8 at the half but was routed the final 20 minutes. Coach Stan Heath did not blame the final half meltdown to Crater's absence. But it didn't help.

Both clubs did show good care of the ball. Cincinnati's TO rate was 18%, South Florida checked in at 17%. Bearcats dominated inside with a 40% OREB percentage (South Florida was 28%) and a 36-22 edge in points in the paint.

Yancy Gates of Cincy scored a game high 25 points an 10n of 11 shooting from the floor. The 6-9 junior did not attempt a three, no need to and had an excellent Manley efficiency of 28 (1.22 per minute eff.), in 23 minutes.

Augusts Gilchrist WAS South Florida's inside presence with 16 points 5 rebounds. Sophomore guard Shaun Noriega scored 12 points. Noriega has a nice touch and loves the trey. He was 4 of 7 beyond the arc and 0 for 2 from two point range.

Tomorrow, the quarterfinals. This should be 'feast week', at any rate the Madness truly continues.

Cincinnati cheerleaders