Dove Entrails & Tea Leaves -- Pythagoreas, Minutes and Points in the A-10

The Problem with Crystal Balls
As an expression (for the sake of clarety...), the process of determining how a team will do in the next season looks something like this...

How Team A will do this season = How Team A did last season - Team A players lost + Team A players gained + Team A intangibles

The Pythagorean Winning Percentage provides one of the best measures of how a team did in previous seasons. We can use a deductive approach to analyzing how the departed players will affect the next squad by looking at who is coming back, and what they bring. Incorporating new players into the mix is about the toughest part of the process...next to accurately assessing the impact of the intangibles of course. Taking a look at the first two elements (how Team A did and who Team A will bring back) is the start of the process, and once I have those two elements,it is easier to see how the last two could affect their performance and standing next season. Comparing each teams overall Pythagorean Winning Percentage (PWP) against the average of the conference (about 54.5, the Atlantic 10 is a very good conference), then doing the same for returning minutes (based on rosters through early August) and plotting the differences to a grid provides a clear indication of where each team sits compared to the rest of the conference. I have been partial to returning minutes because I think it provides a good sense of the relative maturity of different squads, but returning points has value, and so I decided to plot a second grid with points in place of minutes, as those who check out the second chart below. Can points tell us something that minutes might not? Compare Xavier's position in the tables below...

The X-axis returning percentage of minutes (above) and returning percentage of points (below). PWP is the Y-axis. For the PWP/Returning Minutes chart above, the axis intersect at (54.5,66.4), while for the PWP/Returning Points chart below, the intersection is (54.5,66.7).

.

A quick look and the two seem to virtually identical. A closer look uncovers a few differences worth exploring.

No Surprises Here
Temple and (sometimes) Xavier plot to the (upper left) above average quadrant for returning points and for the Musketeers, just below the average line for minutes returned (> average PWP, < average returning minutes), but the Muskies jump above the X-axis (average of returning scoring) in the second table -- a quick visual on the "value of Tu Holloway". For the past three seasons these two programs have turned the A-10 regular season into a duet. Those concerned about the X-men's minutes (ie experience) next season can relax, the program has learned to level the year-to-year ebb and flow of talent through the judicious application of red shirts and transfer eligibility rules. Coach Mack has Brad Releford, a rising junior sniper, Justin Martin, a red shirt (partial qualifier) freshman and Travis Taylor (transfer from Monmouth University) in reserve from last season, ready to step into the rotation for 2012. And even as I write, Isaiah Philmore, a transfer from Towson, will practice this season and be ready to step in 2013. Excellent programs can do that.

Coach Dunphy has not established that cushion for his Owl program, but every season a rotations/role player seems to step up and have a great year. Juan Fernandez and Ryan Brooks blossomed in 2010, while Scootie Randall and Khalif Wyatt did the same in 2011.

Testing Common Wisdom
Mature/experienced teams improve over their prior performances. That saw will be tested in 2012 as 2011 bottom-dwellers Fordham and Charlotte return squads that lost a combined 25 games in conference competition last season. Charlotte's fall from grace in 2011 (the 49ers returned higher-than-average minutes from a squad that posted a greater-than-average PWP from 2010) can be attributed to the education of rookie coach Alan Major. The transition from assistant to head coach, especially when a change of program is part of the transiton, can be bumpy -- Dayton fans take note. Coach Major brings in a large class rookie this season, which may be counter productive when installing new offensive/defensive systems. Coach Tom Pecora's Fordham squad showed improvement in his first season at Rose Hill, but the squad needs an infusion of A-10 level talent to establish momentum. Will he find them among the six new faces (freshmen) coming in for 2012?

For Saint Louis, Saint Joseph's, George Washington and St. Bonaventure however, the old saw may work out in 2012. Coach Mark Schmidt put the Bonnies on an upward trajectry when he took over in 2008. A-10 Player of the Year candidate Andrew Nicholson is a major reason, but Coach Schmidt has surrounded him with solid talent. Coach Mike Lonergan's hire last April places George Washington in a position similar to Charlotte's in 2011; a new coach taking charge of an experienced squad. Having seven years at the helm of Vermont gives Coach Lonergan an advantage the Major did not have however. Early season games against Syracuse, Georgia, UAB and Kansas State should give fans a good idea of where the program stands going into conference play. Coach Phil Martelli brought in a consensus conference-best class in 2011. Better yet, the class appears to be headed back to Hawk Hill for 2012 along with most of the eligible returnees, which ought to break Saint Joseph's two year run of 20 game losing seasons. Coach Rick Majerus' four year tenure at Saint Louis has been marked with a revolving door roster and a badly timed setback in 2011. 2012 should mark a substantial turnaround for the Billikens as they return nearly all of their (young) 2011 roster and suspended clutch guard Kwamain Mitchell. Should Coach Majerus' health hold up, the Billikens should have a hand in the conference race in 2012 and beyond.

When anticipating who would plot to the (lower left) "below average" on both factors quadrant, I thought the two last place teams, Charlotte and Fordham would be the strongest candidates. Both, it turns out, return more than average for minutes and points next season. The teams that did plot to the lower left quadrant are La Salle and Massachusetts, the teams that finished #9 and #10 respectively in 2011 conference play. The Explorers had a good balance of senior leadership and young talent, but was plagued with inconsistent play throughout the season. Some changes to the roster (especially when the freshman backcourt rotation -- Tyreek Duren, Sam Mills and Cole Stefan stay for another season) may benefit La Salle's prospects in 2012 (not to mention Dr. Giannini's job security).

For UMass however, the problem is inherent to the Dribble Drive Motion offensive system implemented by Coach Derek Kellogg. The DDM relies on a dynamic lead guard to either score via penetration or (when the situation calls for it...) get the ball to someone who can. The system needs reliable secondary scorers who can catch and and penetrate or shoot from the outside (when needed) and athletic front court players who can rebound and put back should the shooter's attempt miss. If the squad (especially that lead guard) not recognize and exploit/convert the scoring opportunities, the principal ball handler becomes a volume scorer. Since Gary Forbes' senior season (2008 -- Travis Ford's last as Coach in Amherst), Kellogg's lead guards (Ricky Harris and Anthony Gurley) typically take 30% or more of the possessions and shots, but the offense does not convert those possessions efficiently enough to win consistently. The problem in 2011 is that the scoring alternatives, Jesse Morgan and Freddie Riley had lower offensive (points per possession) ratings than Gurley. Those two and Chaz Williams, a 5-9 Hofstra transfer, will be next up as lead guard/scorer in the system.

Programs versus Teams
2012 should provide an opportunity to see which Coach Chris Mooney has built at Richmond during his tenure. The Spiders graduated a substantial percentage of their scoring and minutes over the past two seasons, but have a deep roster from which to draw. If the rotation players step forward (as Justing Harper did in 2011), the team should not take a large step back from their performance over the past two seasons. Can the same be said for Duquesne and Rhode Island, two other programs that played to the conference tournament quarter finals in 2011? The Runnin' Rams' Coach Jim Baron has had to scramble the past few off seasons to fill out his roster. Though he had early commitments, all too often they did not make it to campus, and the Rhode Island mentor had to rummage through JUCO lists and AAU rosters going late into July. This past season the needs were identified, those expected to return -- Akeem Richmond excepted -- will and the signees are all coming in as well. Those stitched together rosters produced three consecutive post season runs, but Coach Baron has never had so small a returning nucleus to start the season. Though transfers Billy Baron (the coach's son) and Andre Malone won't be available until after the fall semester, early season games at Texas and with regional rivals Boston College and Providence might provide a hing about Rhode Island's fortunes in 2012. Duquesne's Coach Ron Everhart has adjusted his gameplan to exploit the advantages a smaller, more mobile squad can provide. The frantic pace (#13 in D1 per Ken Pomeroy) caught unsuspecting teams off guard which, enabled the Dukes to earn a bye bid to the Atlantic 10 Conference Tournament and a post season spot in the CBI field in 2011. Coach Everhart will have a couple of taller players to replace Damian Saunders and Bill Clark, but will they be as efficient?

Caveat Emptor
Consider that...
1. The rosters are still taking shape. In the past week La Salle fans learned that South Carolina transfer Ramone Galloway was granted a waiver to play immediately (headline announcement on the front page of the team's web site), while (not publicly acknowledged...) rising sophomore Cole Stefan left the program and the school. Some schools (Rhode Island for example) tend to delay announcements on academic probation. And injuries can strain resources (see Xavier and Temple early in 2011) or derail a season (La Salle in 2010).
2. Fans may have their favorites for preseason Rookie of the Year, but predicting the impact of any freshman is tricky, involving both talent and opportunity...with a large helping of luck.
3. Of the last five new conference coaches, Xavier's Chris Mack (hard to believe he will enter his third year as a head coach in 2012) has had the easiest path -- credit the solid program he inherited when Sean Miller moved on to Arizona. What can the struggles of Tom Pecora, a successful veteran coach charged with rebuilding Fordham and Alan Major, an Ohio State Assistant Coach whose first bite at the head coaching apple came at Charlotte suggest to us about Archie Miller and Mike Lonergan's first season at Dayton and George Washington respectively? Miller takes over a light roster and has to find bodies just to cover the next season. Combined with his lack of head coaching experience the Flyers will most likely struggle to match 2011's 7-9 conference mark. Lonergan, an experienced hand at Vermont, steps into a deeper and stronger roster. How drastically he moves the squad to his offensive and defensive systems and how hard he pushes the current roster to get there will probably influence how enthusiastically the roster responds.

Wash, Rinse, Repeat (pt 2) -- The 2012 Atlantic-10 Home and Away Slate

Flipping 2011 Home/Away Opponents
In addition to carrying the mirror opponents (home/away series opponents) from 2011, the Atlantic-10 schedule maker reversed the venues for the single game opponents. Charlotte visited Duquesne, Rhode Island, St. Bonaventure, Saint Louis and Temple in 2011. The 49ers will host those teams as single game opponents in 2012. Does this balance their schedule over the two season period? Remember that virtually no teams return their entire rosters season-over-season. The average of returning minutes in the A-10 next season (to this point) is about 66%.

Home & Away According to Pythagoreas & Seed...
I decided to take the average of the home and away Pythagorean Winning Percentage (PWP) -- conference games only -- for each team's set of opponents. I excluded mirror opponents (covered in the previous post) for this the compilation to focus on those match-ups that would not allow a return engagement (in the 2012 regular season). I also took the average A-10 conference tournament seed for each set of opponents, to determine if each team was facing an "average" set of opponents in the home or away setting -- the conference has 14 members, the "average seed" is 7.5...

	Non-Mirror Opps.
	Home		Away
Team	PWP	Seed	PWP	Seed
Charlotte	0.522	4.9	0.358	7.8
Dayton	0.341	7.4	0.531	6.8
Duquesne	0.319	9.3	0.614	6.6
Fordham	0.438	6.5	0.587	6.8
George Washington	0.526	7.3	0.565	8.5
La Salle	0.436	6.8	0.488	7.1
Massachusetts	0.334	9.3	0.711	6.3
Rhode Island	0.555	7.8	0.546	8.4
Richmond	0.370	9.1	0.710	7.4
Saint Joseph's	0.236	8.8	0.691	4.6
St. Bonaventure	0.538	6.8	0.555	8.5
Saint. Louis	0.477	5.5	0.379	7.9
Temple	0.557	7.9	0.553	9.5
Xavier	0.497	8.0	0.500	9.0
Avg.	0.439	7.5	0.556	7.5
Std.	0.099	1.3	0.103	1.2

As the table suggests, there is a sharp contrast in the PWPs among visiting teams and hosts. George Washington, Rhode Island, St. Boanventure and Temple appear to have the strongest slate of non-mirror opponents, and Temple looks as if their slate of road opponents may be marginally easier than their slate of visitors (though the Owls did catch a huge break on their mirror opponents). Looking over the PWPs for road games, it appears that Massachusetts, Richmond and Saint Joseph's have their work cut out for them. For the Minutemen and Spiders, this could be problematic, as the UMass returns 60% of their 2011 scoring (points) and Coach Chris Mooney's squad returns just over 31% of theirs.
Different Strategies for Different Circumstances
A common wisdom approach to scheduling strategy might want to schedule the stronger opponents into the home arena, thereby using the home court advantage to maximum effect, while taking the weaker opponents on the opponents' home court with the notion they could be beaten in either location. For teams whose objective is to break out of the conference's lower division (or cellar...) however a counter intuitive strategy might be the better choice. Hosting weaker opponents would maximize the chances of winning conference games, while conceding the road loss to the conference's stronger teams. Very few coaches would embrace a strategy that concedes losses even before the season even starts, but as a practical approach to accumulating wins, programs like Charlotte and Fordham have few options, at least until they rebuild their programs. How do the non-mirror match-ups compare when looking at those two different approaches?

Looking for Wins...Any Wins
Rookie Coach Archie Miller may have caught a break from the schedule maker. Dayton graduated All Conference forward Chris Wright, while also losing freshmen Juwan Staten (West Virginia) and Brandon Spearman (Indian Hills CC) to transfer. The depleted Flyers return 58.4% of their minutes and 58% of their scoring. Drawing hosting duties for Charlotte, George Washington, La Salle, Massachusetts and Rhode Island without having to return the favor. Rhode Island at this point, is in line to return less than 25% of their 2011 minutes in 2012. Miller should be able to post a winning home record among these five opponents. The seed versus PWP spread for the opponents visiting the UD Arena in 2012 is interesting, about average for seed, but a comparatively low road PWP. The spread suggests those teams did not travel well in 2011.

Richmond, like Rhode Island, will have only 40% of 2011's minutes available going into 2012, a (mirrors excluded) home slate of Dayton, Fordham, La Salle (again!), Massachusetts (ditto!) and Temple should help build some confidence (and post wins) for the Spiders of tomorrow. Their (non-mirror) road slate however, should be a bit more challenging -- Duquesne, Rhode Island, St. Bonaventure, Saint Louis and Xavier. Should Coach Mooney's squad post a winning record versus those five, Richmond will be in a good position for post season consideration.

Massachusetts slumped at the end of their 2011 conference schedule, dropping their last regular season game to winless (in conference play) Fordham and then losing their A-10 first round game to Dayton. Lining up Charlotte, Fordham, Saint Louis, St. Bonaventure and Xavier for home dates should help to establish a winning home record in conference play. True as visitors the Minutemen will be hard pressed to win more than one game from their road slate -- Dayton, Duquesne, George Washington, Richmond and Temple -- but if they hosted those five would they win more than (say...) two?

Fordham's home slate -- Charlotte, Dayton, George Washington, La Salle and Xavier -- should provide the Rams with a few more winning opportunities than their road slate -- Duquesne, Massachusetts, Richmond, Saint Joseph's and Saint Louis. Returning a nucleus of Chris Gaston, Branden Frazier and Alberto Estwick provides Coach Tom Pecora with an opportunity to up Fordham's conference win total in 2012.

Making a Statement
St. Bonaventure has bettered their conference record in each of Coach Mark Schmidt's four seasons, finishing in the upper division 2011. With Andrew Nicholson a rising senior in 2012, the future maybe now, and the Bonnies drew a fairly balanced (in a PWP sense...) slate of (non-mirror) home and away opponents. Assembling a winning record at both home and on the road against those opponents would certainly serve notice the Bonnies are back, and probably put them in the conversation for a post season bid, preferably to a tournament whose name starts with an "N".

On paper George Washington appears ready to shop for more permanent digs in the A-10's upper division. Next season's (non-mirror) home and away slate seems fairly balanced per the average PWP (and note the average seed is consistent with the PWP). The question is whether new Coach Mike Lonergan can motivate the squad to perform in the face of a challenging road slate.

Temple drew the only slate that would fit the bill for an elite team -- face better teams (Dayton, Duquesne, George Washington, Massachusetts and Xavier) at home, lesser teams (Charlotte, Rhode Island, Richmond, St. Bonaventure and Saint Louis) on the road. The seed versus PWP contrast for the road opponents suggests that lineup, like George Washington's, were stronger in front of the home crowd than on the road.

Counter Programming?
On the heels of an unexpectedly good (slump at season's end excepted) season, Duquesne would probably have been better served with a stronger slate of visiting teams than Fordham, La Salle, Massachusetts, Richmond and Saint Joseph's. While there may be a measure of home crowd entertainment value in running up the score on Fordham or Massachusetts, but wide margins may (again?) obscure weaknesses in the Duke program.

Xavier drew a surprisingly balanced slate of single game opponents for both home (Fordham, George Washington, La Salle, Massachusetts and Temple) and the road (Duquesne, Rhode Island, Richmond, Saint Joseph's and St. Bonaventure). Note the home slate has an average seed within the standard deviation, while the road slate seed is just below the range established by the standard deviation (suggesting the Musketeers' hosts are better at home than on the road).

Caveat Emptor
Consider that...
1. The rosters are still taking shape -- at this point it appears that Saint Louis will return 92.8% of their minutes from the 2011 season (plus Kwamain Michell). Last June the Billikens were projected to return 82.7% of their minutes, but only 54% were on the roster when the season started. There are a variety of reasons why players, post NBA draft deadline, do not return to school, and every Atlantic-10 team has lost experienced minutes in June and later in the off season.
2. Timing can make a difference -- Duquesne ran up an 8-0 record through the first half of their 2011 A-10 slate against teams that finished the season with a collective 50-78 (0.391) conference record. Only two of those teams (Temple and George Washington) finished on the upside of 0.500 in their conference games.
3. Coaching changes can affect team dynamics, or not -- Charlotte's Alan Major had a rough rookie season as head coach, while rookie head coach Chris Mack's Xavier squad won the Atlantic-10 regular season title in 2010. George Washington's Coach Lonergan has six years of experience directing Vermont's program (and seven directing D3 Catholic University) before taking over at George Washington; the Colonials should show improvement over their 2011 conference record (health providing...). Dayton's Archie Miller, a long-time assistant, but looking at his first season in charge of a Division 1 program, may have problems matching departed coach Brian Gregory's 7-9 record.

On Second Thought -- Plotting Trendlines for Atlantic 10 Teams (pt 4)

Conference Elites
The three teams discussed in this post were the teams that topped the Atlantic-10 Conference last season. The teams share a common trait -- their offfensive efficiency trendlines started above their defensive efficiency trendlines (they were winning games) throughout the season. Each team lost at least one game, but even when more than one conference game was lost, that team did not sustain a losing streak of more than one game. The conference standings/seeds for the Atlantic 10 Tournament with the featured teams highlighted:

	W	L	Pct.
Xavier	15	1	0.938
Temple	14	2	0.875
Richmond	13	3	0.813
Duquesne	10	6	0.625
George Washington	10	6	0.625
Rhode Island	9	7	0.563
St. Bonaventure	8	8	0.500
Dayton	7	9	0.438
Massachusetts	7	9	0.438
La Salle	6	10	0.375
St. Louis	6	10	0.375
Saint Joseph's	4	12	0.250
Charlotte	2	14	0.125
Fordham	1	15	0.063

As the standings above show, all three teams earned first round byes, appearing first in the quarter finals in Atlantic City. And after Atlantic City, all three earned NCAA bids.

Richmond

Kenny Anderson's last season was the Spiders' best yet

Senior guard Kevin Anderson may not have had the kind of individual season in 2011 that one might expect from the returning Conference Player of the Year of 2010 (indeed, the A-10's 2011 POY went to Tu Holloway), but the team results were decidedly better. It appeared, about 10 games into the conference schedule, that the Spiders were headed to a "crossover" (a slump), but avoided that turn and put on an impressive run to end the season. Note the steep decline in the defensive efficiency trendline from games 10 (George Washington) through 16 (Duquesne), that movement is especially positive given the emphasis on defense in the post season setting. The Spiders went on to eliminate Rhode Island, Temple and finally Dayton to win the Atlantic-10 Conference Tournament, and though they earned a lowly #12 seed in the NCAA field, they survived the first weekend (wins over Vanderbilt and Morehead State) and ran to the Sweet Sixteen before being eliminated by Kansas in the Southwest Region. Rolling up a 13-2 record over their last 15 games, Richmond managed a program record 29 wins over their 37 game season. Coach Mooney turned aside overtures for BCS-level coaching jobs, and Richmond has tied him into a long term contract that should keep him for at least 5 more (or so) years.

Temple

Injuries caught up with the Owls

The preseason favorite to repeat as conference champion spent a good part of the season struggling to cover gaps in their lineup. A preseason injury to senior Craig Williams became a precursor of the season to come, as the forward was expected to miss only the first month or so of the season. Despite the prognosis, the senior suffered further injuries during rehabilitation, and never set foot on the court in 2011. Of those who did start the season, Juan Fernandez, the 2010 Atlantic-10 Tournament Most Valuable Player struggled at times in the out of conference portion of the season, and ultimately missed four conference games in January. The roster count going into 2010-11 was 11 (absent Craig Williams), so the margin for injury was extremely small. Freshman forward Anthony Lee sat out the season with a back injury, while Center Eric Michael tore a patella tendon February 17 and missed the rest of the season (six regular season conference games, Duke, two Atlantic-10 Conference Tournament games and two NCAA games). Meanwhile during the last portion of the regular season, Scootie Randall was also sidelined with a deeply bruised foot. The wing missed the last four regular season conference games (and Duke), and returned only for the NCAA games. Note the upturn (not a good turn) in the defense around game #13 (Saint Joseph's), which coincides with the simultaneous loss of Michael and Randall. The consolation is that the additional playing time allocated to Rahlir Jefferson, TJ DiLeo, Aaron Brown and Khalif Wyatt should pay dividends in 2012. The Owls lost their Atlantic-10 Conference Tournament semi-final game to Richmond (revenge for the Spiders who lost to the Owls in the 2010 Tournament final), but did eliminate Penn State in the first round of the NCAA before falling to San Diego State after two overtimes, in their second NCAA game.

Xavier

Led the conference from start to finish

Second year Coach Chris Mack, like Temple's Coach Dunphy, had to negotiate a rash of preseason/early season injuries that decimated the Musketeer squad through much of November. The Musketeers stumbled to a very unXavier-like out of conference record of 8-5 to start conference play. Pegged in the previews to finish anywhere from #2 to #4 in conference play, Coach Mack's squad led conference play from first tip to final buzzer, racking up an impressive 15-1 record in conference play. If Xavier's offensive efficiency showed a decline from games #6 (George Washington) to #14 (at Dayton), note their defense efficiency kept the margin more-or-less the same through that period. #1 seeded for the Atlantic-10 Tournament, the X-men were upset in the quarter-finals by old rival Dayton, and though seeded #6, they were surprisingly (again) eliminated from the NCAAs by a first round upset at the hands of Marquette.

Guest Contributor Ray Floriani: A Quick Recap of Morehead State & Richmond

by Ray Floriani

LYNDHURST, NJ - On to the sweet Sixteen. Richmond set the tempo and was in command from the start en route to a 65-48 victory over Morehead state. The Spiders advance to face the Kansas-Illinois winner in San Antonio. The numbers:

		Off.
Team	Poss.	Off.
Morehead State	52	92
Richmond	59	110

* The story as it's been the past few weeks was Richmond's defense. They do not force many turnovers (Morehead's TO rate was 15%) but they defend very well in half court. Morehead shot a paltry 40% eFG percentage. Ken Faried, the Eagles 6-8 senior center scored 11 points and had 7 offensive boards, as much as Richmond combined. No one else was able to step up. On Chris Mooney's side Justin Harper scored 19 points shooting 57% (8 of 14) from two point range. Dan Geriot added a very important 13 point 7 rebound performance. While the defense was they key, Richmond's offense was none too shabby. Their eFG mark was 51% and the TO rate, a superlative 9%.

greyCat Note -- Two years running in the Atlantic 10 Tournament I have come away extremely impressed with the Richmond team. Coach Chris Mooney has done a fantastic job with the Spiders. I was suprised when they were eliminated by St. Mary's in the 2010 Tournament, and very happy to see them advance to the Sweet Sixteen this time around. Dan Geriot has healed and was back in game shape this season. And the results are there on the court.

2011 Atlantic 10 Tournament -- 6 Takaways

Pausing at the End of the Regular Season
After blogging five of the seven games in the Atlantic 10 Conference Tournament Friday, Saturday and Sunday, I reflected on what I saw in March 2010 and what I saw in March of 2011. The drive home was interrupted by texts and calls on the seeds and regions for the NCAA, but as the phone traffic died down and the Garden State Parkway behaved, I had a chance to think about the conference, the venue and what might be coming next...

1. Atlantic City is a great venue for a tournament -- The A-10 Conference was an outstanding host and Boardwalk Hall, not under siege from an offshore Nor'Easter as it was the first weekend March of 2010, provided a dry and comfortable, fan friendly venue for a college game. The attendance relies heavily on the A-10 member fan-base. The games did not draw much by way of street traffic. That was a problem, as neither Richmond nor Dayton, the finalists, are within short-term traveling distance from Atlantic City, and therefore unable to get to Atlantic City for the Championship game. Attendance for the semi-final games which featured two Philadelphia schools, was 8,285. Attendance for the Championship game was 5,602. Put another 5,000 fans in the seats and the place would rock.

2. Dayton's Old Habits Are Hard to Break -- After "counter programming" for three rounds, Dayton fell back into their old pattern in the championship game. And lost. In the first three rounds the Flyers took an early lead over their opponents (Massachusetts, Xavier and Saint Joseph's) through a mix of three point shooting and fast breaks. During that three game run the Flyers' three point completion rate -- 50.9% -- was better than their two point completion rate, 47.0%, and they scored 17 fast break points in their quarter and semi final games. Against Richmond the Flyers returned to form, they fell behind early on the road and spent the rest of the game playing catch up. Their three point conversion rate, 21.4% was lower than average, but two fast break points was a killer, and gave proof that Richmond's defensive strategy, defend the three point line, limit offensive rebounds and stay in front of Dayton's forwards and guards, worked. Dayton is headed to the NIT for the second consecutive post season. They won it all last season, and it will be interesting to see if Coach Gregory's squad can maintain the focus necessary to make a run this post season.

3. Kevin Anderson was unstoppable -- When Richmond needed points, he got them, or found the teammate who would. The Tournament MVP scored 66 total points over three games, an average of 22.0 points per game. The senior point guard score 24 points on eight converted three pointers, 22 from 11 converted two pointers and 20 points from the free throw line.

4. Temple was too small and too shallow to win three games in three days -- They need to get Scootie Randall back. Coach Dunphy used a seven man rotation against Richmond, and La Salle (discounting one minute stints for Dutch Gaitley and Jake Godino). It was not enough against Richmond, as the Spiders outrebounded the Owls by six (42 to 36), but more importantly, limited the Owls to a very paltry 25.6% offensive rebounding rate (the Owls rebounded just over 25% of their missed field goal attempts). That rate declined over the halves, from 27.8% to 23.8%. Were the Temple rebounders tiring?

5. Richmond's defense can win games -- Of defensive rebounding -- "...that's...not a tremendous strength of ours...this tournament was probably the most consistent we've every rebounded..." He went on to credit Darrius Garrett as their defensive stopped and principal rebounder. "...not a strength" is an understatement, the Spiders are ranked (per Ken Pomeroy) #291 (out of 345) for offensive rebounding, and a below average #195 for defensive rebounding. For the three games in Atlantic City, the Spiders' offensive rebounding rate rose to "above average" (the rank in the range of #147-#152) while defensive rebounding had the Spiders limited opponents to a 26.1% rebounding rate all season, would be ranked #5. That rebounding rate will win games. The defensive retooling, should it carry over into the NCAAs, should get the Spiders out of the first weekend.

6. Saint Joseph's...next year -- Their 6-5 finish to the season (after a 5-17 start) has assured a 17th season on Hawk Hill for Coach Phil Martelli...and raised expectations for next season? The veteran coach can look to a stable and productive backcourt pairing in Carl Jones and Langston Galloway that will be balanced with an inside presence in CJ Aiken, Ronald Roberts and Darius Quarles. The late season surge may be attributed to something as obvious as "We got tired of losing..." -- the sentiment expressed by a Saint Joseph's player in the Duquesne post game press conference, but the veteran coach will need more than the good feelings of a 6-5 finish going into next season. In addition to finding replacements for seniors Charoy Bentley and Idris Hilliard, Martelli has to hold this nucleus together through the off season. While Hawk faithful may feel recruiting errors have been the biggest program failing since the Hawks' 2004 run to the Elite Eight, holding onto and developing those players recruited has proven to be the bigger challenge.

Onto the Post Season...
NCAA -- Three A-10 teams Xavier (#6, East Region), Temple (#7, West Region) and Richmond (#12, Southwest Region) were seeded in the NCAA field.
NIT -- A single team, the Dayton Flyers were offered a spot in the field of 32. The Flyers will host Charleston Tuesday night.
CBI -- Three teams are entered in the Gazelle Group's College Basketball Invitational Tournament and will play their first round games Wednesday. Rhode Island will host Miami (Oh), while St. Bonaventure will travel to Central Florida and Duquesne will travel to Montana.

Guest Contributor Ray Floriani: A Second Look at the A-10 Quarter Finals

by Ray Floriani

ATLANTIC CITY, NJ - A look and analysis of the other three quarterfinal games at Boardwalk Hall.

In front of Boardwalk Hall
between sessions

The scores...

Team	Score			Team
Dayton	68		67	Xavier
Saint Joseph's	93	OT	90	Duquesne
Temple	96		76	La Salle
Richmond	55		45	Rhode Island

Jim Baron instructing the Rams
during a time out

Story of Richmond and Rhode Island was defense. A 58 possession game, neither team hit 100 offensive efficiency. That is good defense, In this case Richmond's was better. Rhode Island posted an offensive efficiency of 78 while the victorious Spiders were 97.

Richmond didn't do it by forcing turnovers. Both clubs had solid TO rates (URI 17%, Richmond 11%). Rather it was the lockdown variety forcing URI into a 40% eFG showing. Richmond also avoided fouling as the Rams attempted only 8 field goals.

Kevin Anderson, Richmond's outstanding senior guard, led the way with 21 points. He shot only 5 of 15 from the floor but did hit a late trey that basically sealed the verdict. Anderson was also 8 of 9 from the line. The vintage Anderson performance we virtually take for granted.

The Spiders' Kevin Smith did not score. The senior forward took only two shots. In the course of his 34 minutes, Smith's presence was felt with contributions -- 7 rebounds, 4 assists, a block and two steals. Valuable contributions in a hard fought victory.

this Rhode Island shirt is 'classic'

La Salle's problems were turnovers and defense. The Explorers had an abysmal 29% TO rate on the offensive end. Defensively, they couldn't force much as Temple had only 6 TOs remarkable 8% rate. Staying with the defensive topic, La Salle gave up a too generous 60% eFG percentage to the Owls. Temple actually shot a slight percentage point better from three than two. They were 10 of 19 (53%) beyond the arc and 25 for 48 (52%) from two point range. Fran Dunphy's club simply shot the ball from all over with five players in double figures.

In a 75 possession game the efficiencies:

La Salle	101
Temple	130

Temple fan lets allegiance be known

As noted I'm sure many times in the past, 101 offensive efficiency can win games for you. Winning with a defense of 130? Almost impossible.

Ramone Moore led the way with 23 points due to his versatility on the perimeter and inside. Lavoy Allen had 14 points while adding a dozen rebounds. Dunphy praised the ability of Allen to get the ball inside and find open teammates against a collapsing defense. In this game, Allen was very effective in that capacity with a team leading 6 assists and only one turnover, which came on an offensive foul.

On La Salle's behalf, note they did shoot a 60% eFG percentage. And they did get individual performances of note from Aaric Murray (22 points) and Ruben Guillandeaux (17 points). But those turnovers, which Guillandeaux unfortunately led in that category with 6, and that (lack of) defense….

The previously mentioned Richmond-Rhody game was more deliberate. Duquesne-St.Joseph's was quite the opposite. The ending also featured a lower seed holding on for an overtime victory. The St.Joseph's guards Langston Galloway and Carl Jones combined for 38% of the Hawks field goal attempts. It was not all perimeter by any stretch as Ronald Robert (19 points) and Idris Hilliard (18 points) were vital contributors.

In the 80 possession game, St.Joseph's had the edge in offensive efficiency:

Saint Joseph's	116
Duquesne	111

The Four Factors were relatively even. The Hawks did have a slight advantage in EFG percentage. They shot 59% to Duquesne's 56%. Credit that to a better showing from beyond the arc. The Hawks were 8 of 16 (50%) to Duquesne's 9 of 21 (43%).

Freshman guard T.J. McConnell missed a last second shot which could have forced a second OT. He scored 15, hitting 6 of 10 from the field. McConnell paced the Dukes with four turnovers but on a bright note, also led the team with 5 steals.

Carl Jones of St.Joseph's led all scorers with 28 points. Jones also had the TO 'bug' setting the game standard with half a dozen.

Despite these two extreme examples of individual turnover extravagance, the TO rates in this one were not that bad.

Saint Joseph's	21%
Duquesne	19%

Duquesne's Damian Saunders tied Bill Clark for the team scoring lead with 21 points. Saunders also tied Lavoy Allen of Temple with the best Manley efficiency rating of the day, at 31. When overtime is a factor though, there is another consideration regarding the Manley. More on that next time.

yours truly with
the Dayton cheerleaders

Guest Contributor Ray Floriani: A-10 Quarter Finals

by Ray Floriani

ATLANTIC CITY, NJ - The Atlantic Ten quarterfinals at Boardwalk Hall, gave us two outstanding afternoon games. Lower seeds pulled the upsets in both. The evening saw the higher seeds 'hold serve' with one blowout (Temple over LaSalle) followed by a close Richmond elimination of Rhode Island. Now, the game of the day. An easy one.
The scores...

Team	Score			Team
Dayton	68		67	Xavier
Saint Joseph's	93	OT	90	Duquesne
Temple	96		76	La Salle
Richmond	55		45	Rhode Island

Game of the Day:

		Off.
	Poss.	Eff.
Dayton	63	112
Xavier	61	106

Pace was moderate but to the eye seemed faster. That was due to both teams aggressively pushing the ball. The difference was, if the transition opportunity was not there, the offense shifted to half court mode. The Four Factors:

		FTA
	eFG%	FGA	OR%	TO%
Dayton	60	16	40	23
Xavier	53	16	29	16

Dayton shot the ball well, aided by an 8 of 13 (62%) mark from three. Good thing they were on as the turnover rate cancelled almost a quarter of their possessions.

Rebounding was a pre-game priority and Brian Gregory's club responded well. Xavier did do damage in the lane however. They were 53% from two point range, enjoying a slight 32-28 edge in points in the paint.

Getting more into the 'numbers' approach, Dayton was swept by their in state rivals twice. Gregory emphasized that 70 of the 80 minutes, in the two games, Dayton was right there. The focus was on improving on those minutes they fell short rather than come in with the concern of facing a higher seeded opponent who swept you in the regular season.

Chris Johnson of Dayton led all with 10 rebounds. Johnson put together a nice showing with 12 points, an assist and two steals.

The Manley Efficiency leaders:

	Manley
	Eff.
C. Johnson, Dayton	22
Tu Holloway, Xavier	18
P. Williams, Dayton	14

Holloway of Xavier led all scorers with 23 points. He was 7 of 17 from the floor but did have five assists against just two turnovers.

Williams, a junior guard hit a few timely treys. He finished with 14 points, hitting 4 of 6 beyond the arc.

Xavier committed only 10 turnovers but Jamel McLean and Mark Lyons had four each.

Luke Fabrizius added 10 points in 15 minutes for the Flyers. The junior forward won't soon be forgotten in the annals of this rivalry as he canned two game winning free throws with 5.8 seconds left. Holloway's last second attempt from deep rimmed and Dayton was celebrating and semifinal bound.

Notes
Will be back with a follow up including a general look at the other three contests from the quarters. And, not to mention, pictures.

Xavier's Tu Holloway shows the disappointment
after the loss to Dayton

Atlantic 10 Tournament -- log5 Through the Quarter Finals

Two Rounds
A quick log5 calculation for the first round games Tuesday and the quarter finals on Friday...

	Pythag.	Prob. Thru
Team	Win %	Rnd 1	Quart.
Temple	0.8797		0.747
Xavier	0.8872		0.727
Duquesne	0.8322		0.715
Richmond	0.8483		0.603
George Washington	0.5479	0.664	0.130
Dayton	0.6475	0.670	0.127
Rhode Island	0.6182	0.503	0.113
St. Louis	0.6158	0.497	0.111
St. Bonaventure	0.5729	0.583	0.090
La Salle	0.4893	0.417	0.048
Saint Joseph's	0.3801	0.336	0.037
Massachusetts	0.4746	0.330	0.034

The value of a bye seed, any bye seed, is clear. Three extra days of rest, the decreased exposure to injury risk and the additional preparation time are all benefits from a season well-played. The probabilities for Temple, Xavier, Duquesne and Richmond provide a quantitative sense of the advantage. The probabilities for the semi-finals and finals will emphasize the built in advantages of the bye seeds.

Quick Thoughts
1. Though Richmond has the better Pythagorean Winning Percentage than Duquesne, the Spiders drew two of the tougher quarter final opponents, Rhode Island & St. Louis. The probability is based on the Pythagorean Winning Percentage, while the seed is determined by the conference won-loss record...and tie breakers.
2. Dayton, which travels to Massachusetts is the "upset special" of the first round. The caveat emptor however, is that while UMass has struggled lately, the Minutemen are riding a three game losing streak, the Flyers are also on a three game skid, and do not travel well (-0.047, ranked #9 in the conference) to boot. The pressure however, is on Dayton to make a run in the tournament, and the road starts at Massachusetts.
3. The Rhode Island - St. Louis first round game appears to be the "toss up special". The Runnin' Rams are on a two game slide (after a decent, 5-2 February), but the Billikens' net efficiency away from Chaifetz, -0.096, is worse than Dayton's, and Coach Rick Majerus' squad is ranked #339 out of 345 in experience, per Ken Pomeroy, another factor when assessing the Billikens' chances for getting to Atlantic City. St. Louis is six games under 0.500. Unless St. Louis runs the table in the conference tournament, their season ends with the next loss.

On Second Glance...
Ken Pomeroy over at the Basketball Prospectus has completed the brackets for the A-10 among others. Check it out if you have a chance. He apparently is planning to compute the log5 for a number of conference tournaments this week.

Guest Contributor Ray Floriani: Dayton & Richmond at Seton Hall

by Ray Floriani
NEWARK, NJ- Christmas week brought a 'tour of the Atlantic Ten' to the Prudential Center. Seton Hall hosted Dayton on Wednesday and Richmond Sunday. Both games saw the Pirates enjoy half time leads only to be reeled in and out played the final twenty minutes. And both losses left Pirate coach Kevin Willard pondering the Hall's immediate future.

Dayton

69

Seton Hall

65

The Rock under lights

The Four Factors:

		FTA
	eFG%	FGA	OR%	TO%
Dayton	37	34	41	16
Seton Hall	44	16	33	14

The Hall led 40-26 at the break and appeared to be in full control. The all important first four minutes of the second half saw Dayton get out to an 11-6 advantage. With 16 minutes to play the margin was suddenly a manageable nine points. Dayton also scored four field goals, with three coming in the paint. A point of concern Hall coach Kevin Willard referred to after the contest.

Willard also had a concern about the rebounding. Dayton was tough on the boards and attacked the glass as OREB percentage shows. Matt Kavanaugh, a 6-9 sophomore, epitomized the Flyer effort coming off the bench for a team high 15 points while adding 7 rebounds.

Four Pirates were in double figures led by Jeff Robinson's 15 points. Jordan Theodore scored 13 points with 5 assists but greater defensive attention on the part of the Dayton guards in that final half, saw Theodore wind up shooting 5 of 13 from the floor.

Dayton had 70 possessions with a 99 OE. The Hall matched the offensive efficiency (OE) with 99 on 66 possessions. Those final twenty minutes Brian Gregory's club clearly set the pace with a 123-71 OE advantage.

Victorious Flyrs greet their fans

Richmond

69

Seton Hall

61

Snow is great for Winter scenes
not so for driving...

Efficiencies for the game:

		Off.
	Poss.	Eff.
Richmond	66	105
Seton Hall	68	90

The Four Factors:

		FTA
	eFG%	FGA	OR%	TO%
Richmond	52	18	27	17
Seton Hall	43	15	39	21

Richmond Coach Chris Mooney
fields questions from reporters

Observations
The Hall led 35-30 at the half but was unable to close the issue. This was a point discussed by coach Kevin Willard after the Dayton game as well as after this one. Seton Hall is simply unable to sustain the effort the full forty minutes. That is a point that must be addressed and altered for the Hall to start winning games of this nature against formidable opposition.

Willard was concerned that as the offense lagged the second half, the defense followed. Entering the game the Hall's defensive efficiency was a very creditable 89. This afternoon, it was 16 above average.

Herb Pope is still rounding into condition. The Pirates' junior forward did give a nice 9 point 12 rebound (team leading) effort in 28 minutes. Pope seems to be attacking the glass more aggressively the last two outings. A good sign.

Hall did a good job forcing the pace and getting in the lane against the Richmond defense, especially the first half. Willard noted that defensive letdowns in the second half hindered the offense. "It's hard to run when you are waiting for the ball to get through the net," he said.

Hall had three in double figures. Once again Jeff Robinson had an active 17 point 10 board effort. Jordan Theodore scored 15 points while Fuquan Edwin added a dozen.

Edwin's added minutes and the experience the freshman swingman is getting are a silver lining in the Jeremy Hazell injury.

Willard said an early January decision will be made regarding Hazell's return or medical red shirt. "We will do what benefits Jeremy the best," Willard said.

Richmond's OREB percentage margin is 25-29%. Simply they are -4 in the percentage margin (their minus that of the opposition). Hall enjoyed a healthy advantage in that area and had a 16-7 edge in second chance points.

Justin Harper led all scorers with 24 points. Richmond's 6-9 senior forward is effective inside or on the perimeter. Harper hit 6 of 8 from three and added a team high 8 rebounds.

Richmond entered with a 44% two point field goal percentage defense. Seton Hall shot an outstanding 68% from two the first half. Pirates cooled off, credit Richmond's defense, the second half finishing with a 41% mark for the contest.

The Final Five Minutes:
Taking a cue from Chris DiSano's "Ice Water in the Veins" article on College Chalktalk last season, is a possession breakdown showing how Mooney's club sealed the deal in the stretch.

Seton Hall led 59-57 with five minutes remaining. The results of those last possessions...

Poss	Richmond	Seton Hall
1.	field goal (Harper 2pt)	turnover
2.	field goal (Harper 3pt)	Miss (defensive reb)
3.	field goal (Garrett 2pt)	turnover
4.	Miss (defensive reb)	field goal (Robinson 2pt)
5.	field goal (Anderson 2pt)	Miss (defensive reb)
6.	field goal (Anderson 3pt)	Miss (defensive reb)
Total	12 points	2 points
PPP	2.00	0.33

Final Numbers
Seton Hall is 6-6, Richmond improves to 10-3. South Florida visit's the Rock on Tuesday to open Big East play. Willard reemphasized that "we have to make plays at the end of the game. Plays on the defensive end."

Hall finished 1-4 against A-10 opposition. They defeated UMASS on the road while losing at Temple, to Xavier on a neutral court and Dayton and Richmond at home. "In all our losses this season," Willard said, "we had a chance to win. We were right in the game."

Post game outside a snowy Rock

A Progress Report on the A-10's Out of Conference Schedule

The Conference Breakdown
Given the conference's footprint stretches from central Carolina north to New England and west to the Mississippi, it comes as no surprise that 29 of Division 1's 31 (not counting the Atlantic-10 itself) are represented in the out of conference (OOC) schedules of the 14 members...

	Games
Conference	Sched	Played
Atlantic Coast Conference	11
American East	10
Atlantic Sun	4
Big Ten	4
Big 12	3	1
Big East	18	2
Big South	4	1
Colonial Athletic Association	16	1
Conference USA	5
Great West	2
Horizon League	6
Independents	1
Ivy League	9	2
Mid-Atlantic Athletic	9	2
Mid-American	14	2
MidEastern Athletic	8	1
Missouri Valley	2
Mountain West	1
Northeast Conference	9	2
Ohio Valley	2	1
Pacific 10	4
Patriot League	7
Sun Belt	3	2
Southeast Conference	6
Summit League	3
Southern Conference	7	1
SouthWest Athletic Conference	2
Western Athletic Conference	1
West Coast Conference	2

[Note -- the list does not reflect 2nd, 3rd and 4th round opponents in early season invitational tournaments. Expect more above the Red Line conference games as those parts of the schedule become official...]
The mix certainly reflects the different regions from which the conference draws it's membership. As expected, the ACC, American East, Big East, CAA, Ivy and MidAtlantic Athletic Conference (MAAC) are well represented in the composite schedule. The Mid American Conference (MAC) seems over represented, though both Dayton and Xavier hail from the upper Midwest and traditionally schedule several MAC teams. Temple however, has a football affiliation with the MAC, and is contractually obligated to schedule a handful of MAC teams (the Owls would no doubt have one or two on the schedule anyway), this season the number is five (of the Owls' 13 OOC games).

The composite record so far (midday 11/16) is 11-7 (0.611), with losing records against the Big 12 (La Salle lost to Baylor), the Big South(!) and the Ohio Valley(!) Conferences.

Pleasant Surprises
While beating The Citadel & William & Mary was expected, the margin of victory caught my interest. According to Ken Pomeroy the efficiency with which the Spiders dispatched those opponents was mid-season form...

	Efficiency
	Off.	Def.	Diff.
The Citadel	1.23	0.58	+0.66
William & Mary	1.14	0.77	+0.38

Granted neither opponent is a Top 100 RPI team (they will both probably end up in the 200 range when the season goes into the books), but the efficiency differentials are impressive, and the point margins of +42 and +27 respectively suggest Coach Mooney has this team ready to play. If the Spiders handle a few of their more challenging OOC opponents (Arizona State, Georgia Tech, Seton Hall -- on the road) with the same ease, they should find themselves on a few AP and Coaches Poll ballots going into the A-10 regular season.

Consistent with last season, Temple continues to show well against above the Red Line opponents. The Owls opened with a six point win over the Pirates of Seton Hall (Big East). If the Hall recovers their step, this win should look very good on Temple's resume going into Selection Sunday.

Pittsburg is expected to dominate the Big East this season, but the Panthers had all they could handle from Coach Baron's Rhode Island squad. All the more remarkable because the squad that stayed within a possession of Pitt to the last 1:20 of the game was still unsettled as late as the start of classes in early September. Should the coach be able to build on this early season surprise (a trademark of Rhodi teams in the Baron Era), the Runnin' Rams might be able to use an expected early conference regular season return of Orion Outerbridge as the energy boost to power them through that late season wall they hit last season.

Disappointments
True Gardiner-Webb housed Kentuky two seasons ago, but this Big South team is not returning an experienced squad nor expected to compete for a Big South title this season. The 90-81 win over South Carolina State last weekend evened Coach Major's record and will get the 49ers ready for their game against George Mason later this week.

Tom Pecora's debut at Fordham was also disappointing, though the 61-58 loss to Brown (Ivy League) was closer than Coach Major's debut. Like Charlotte, Fordham turned it around in the second game, dispatching Sacred Heart (NEC) by a double digit margin.

Coach Majerus is no doubt re-tooling the Saint Louis offense and defense with the loss of senior Willie Reed and junior Kwamain Mitchell, two of the squad's recognized leaders, on the eve (literally) of fall practice. Neither will be available before late December (if then). The shuffle explains the Billekins' 64-62 opening loss to Austin Peay (Ohio Valley Conference). The Governors are a middling OVC team whose RPI typically ranks somewhere in the mid 100s by season's end. Not the kind of home loss that will help St. Louis' tournament resume (nor the conference's overall standing). The Billikens were expected to challenge for conference elite status this season, but may spend much of the OOC (quickly) integrating newcomers in place of the missing parts and, much like last season, surge at the end of the conference schedule, playing more the spoiler (again) than the next conference "It" team. Too bad given the A-10's potential to take three or four NCAA bids.

A10 Efficiencies -- An Aerial View of 2010

...And Then There Were Three
At the midpoint of the Atlantic 10's regular conference season, bracketologist all over the D1 universe were buzzing about the number of teams the conference would/could put into the NCAA Tournament. With speculation running as high as five, it may have been something of a letdown when three invitations actually went out. Three equals the number of invitations in 2008 & 2009 (their 2010 seeds were better though), and bettered their numbers for 2005 - 2007. Dayton, at times dominant in conference play, never seemed to engage with the season, missing early opportunities to build their resume. Rhode Island and Charlotte, surprisingly strong in their out of conference schedules with wins over Oklahoma State and Louisville respectively, sputtered late. Charlotte's swoon, an especially nasty 1-7 run in the 49ers' last eight games, cost coach Bobby Lutz his job. St. Louis, the youngest team in the conference going into the season, played to type early on (winning at Chaivetz, but losing -- at times badly -- on the road), but posted a strong 7-1 record in February and (best of all...) played a game in January quirky enough (all points scored on 2FGAs only) to draw warrant a post in Ken Pomeroy's blog. The Billikens would have had to run the table in Atlantic City however, to draw an invitation from the Selection Committee. The aerial view of the conference's offensive and defensive efficiency (conference games only)...

Note that the conference-wide efficiency was 1.011 points per possession (or adjusted for 100 possessions, 101.1 -- table below). The standard deviation suggests greater variability in defensive efficiency among conference teams than on offense.

	Efficieny		(Off - Def)	Avg=101.1
Team	Off	Def	Difference	Off	Def
Xavier	112.1	94.8	17.3	11.1	6.3
Temple	107.0	91.5	15.6	6	9.6
Richmond	105.9	94.3	11.6	4.9	6.8
Dayton	102.0	91.2	10.8	0.9	9.9
Rhode Island	109.2	103.3	5.9	8.2	-2.2
St. Louis	96.6	94.3	2.3	-4.5	6.8
Charlotte	101.9	102.1	-0.2	0.9	-1.0
George Washington	99.3	101.0	-1.6	-1.7	0.1
St. Bonaventure	99.4	103.8	-4.3	-1.6	-2.7
Duquesne	99.7	105.6	-5.9	-1.3	-4.5
La Salle	98.4	106.6	-8.2	-2.7	-5.5
Massachusetts	99.2	107.4	-8.2	-1.8	-6.3
Saint Joseph's	94.5	105.5	-11	-6.6	-4.4
Fordham	89.4	114.1	-24.7	-11.7	-13.0
Average	101.1	101.1
Std Dev	5.77	6.63

The teams which posted positive efficiency differentials went to the post season, while those who did not -- George Washington excepted -- ended their seasons before Selection Sunday. The configuration, most teams (10/14 -- 71%) located either in the "Good Offense/Good Defense" quadrant or the "Bad Offense/Bad Defense" quadrant, resembles the Big East aerial from 2009 (13/16 -- 81%). The Big East Conference was considered "stronger than usual" in 2009 -- true for the 2010 edition of the A10 perhaps? The conference's post season success (Temple and Richmond, two first round losses aside...) was also rather notable...

1. Xavier went to the Sweet Sixteen where the Musketeers lost by five points to Kansas St. in the second overtime period.
2. Dayton won the NIT, beating North Carolina.
3. Rhode Island ran to the NIT semi-finals, losing by a point to North Carolina in overtime.
4. St. Louis lost to Virginia Commonwealth in the CBI finals.

Observations...
A few thoughts as I reviewed the aerial and underlying data (and sometimes team-related data)...
1. Dayton was clearly an outlier. I suspect (though have not confirmed) that a team that places in the "Good/Good" quadrant in any of the BCS conferences would receive an NCAA bid. The Flyers, victims in part of a late charging Billikens squad (they were 0-2 in that series last season), appeared unable to finish close games. Coach Gregory's squad was 1-7 in conference games decided by five or fewer points. Location mattered as the Flyers were 0-6 in close games on the road, and 1-1 in close games at home. Dayton returns a squad weighted heavily with rising junior and seniors, but as a whole, they (along with a few rising sophomores), represent just over 50% of the minutes logged in 2010. Winning the NIT is, given where the squad stood on March 13, the best possible ending, but Coach Gregory may have missed on his best chance to field a squad capable of taking a deep run into the NCAA field.
2. Richmond, Temple and Xavier, the three teams that finished in the "Good/Good" quadrant return about (give or take) the average of returning minutes next season. Fans anticipating strong showings for the Spiders, Owls and Musketeers should not be disappointed.
3. The Billikens' run through the CBI was a good start for a squad that returns virtually intact next season. St. Louis, typical of Coach Majerus' coached teams led with defense. Success in 2011 will no doubt depend on how they progress offensively.
4. George Washington, the seventh conference team invited to a post season tournament is, re-checking the chart and tables above, an outlier. The Colonials were eliminated in the first round by the tournament's eventual winner, Virginia Commonwealth University. Unlike the NCAA and NIT, the CBI does not appear to have a quantitative criteria for seeding their field. GW boasted two headliners, A10 Honorable Mention Damian Hollis and A10 All-Rookie first teamer Lasan Kromah, which combined with the local match-up (VCU is located in Richmond, Va, about 50 miles southeast of Washington DC), increased the chances the game would draw media attention and a box office.
5. Charlotte, a near-miss for the post season in 2010, returns nearly all of their squad. First year head coach Alan Major steps into a nearly perfect situation for a new coach. If he can address the defensive problems and avoid the pitfall of trying to install a brand-new system without due consideration to the talent on hand, he ought to be able to get that squad to take the next forward step.