Guest Contributor Ray Floriani: A Quick Recap of Morehead State & Richmond

by Ray Floriani

LYNDHURST, NJ - On to the sweet Sixteen. Richmond set the tempo and was in command from the start en route to a 65-48 victory over Morehead state. The Spiders advance to face the Kansas-Illinois winner in San Antonio. The numbers:

		Off.
Team	Poss.	Off.
Morehead State	52	92
Richmond	59	110

* The story as it's been the past few weeks was Richmond's defense. They do not force many turnovers (Morehead's TO rate was 15%) but they defend very well in half court. Morehead shot a paltry 40% eFG percentage. Ken Faried, the Eagles 6-8 senior center scored 11 points and had 7 offensive boards, as much as Richmond combined. No one else was able to step up. On Chris Mooney's side Justin Harper scored 19 points shooting 57% (8 of 14) from two point range. Dan Geriot added a very important 13 point 7 rebound performance. While the defense was they key, Richmond's offense was none too shabby. Their eFG mark was 51% and the TO rate, a superlative 9%.

greyCat Note -- Two years running in the Atlantic 10 Tournament I have come away extremely impressed with the Richmond team. Coach Chris Mooney has done a fantastic job with the Spiders. I was suprised when they were eliminated by St. Mary's in the 2010 Tournament, and very happy to see them advance to the Sweet Sixteen this time around. Dan Geriot has healed and was back in game shape this season. And the results are there on the court.

Atlantic 10 Tournament -- Revised log5, Post Quarter Finals

To the Finals
A quick log5 recalculation now that Friday's quarter finals leave only four teams in the field...

	Pythag.	Prob. Thru
Team	Win %	Semi	to Win
Temple	0.8797	0.564	0.505
Richmond	0.8496	0.436	0.378
Dayton	0.6986	0.729	0.051
Saint Joseph's	0.4632	0.271	0.004

If Temple's probabilities seem a bit low, look at the Owls' probabilities relative to the rest of the field. Coach Dunphy's team emerges as the strongest among the four. While Dayton might have the strongest probability of making it to the Finals (the Flyers' probabilities of beating Saint Joseph's is 72.9%). As Hawks' Coach Phil Martelli said in last night's post game press conference, "The Hawk never dies...we were just -- we were circling...And now we've been able to soar a bit", and it appears that Duquesne's team, eliminated 93-90 in overtime against Saint Joseph's, would have to agree. It will be interesting to see how the Flyers cope with this young, and becoming more confident with each game, squad.

The other semi-final, #3 seed Richmond versus #2 seed Temple will be a more traditional matchup. Temple won in Philadelphia during the season and Richmond's perimeter players, Justin Harper and Kevin Anderson, shot a combined 4-14 in their 55-45 win over Rhode Island Friday night. They will need to do better against Temple Saturday. Temple however, is not without problems of their own. Coach Dunphy lost two more players in the season's final weeks, Michael Eric is out for the season, and Scootie Randall is day-to-day with a foot problem. Dunphy did not need the junior as the Owls beat cross town rival La Salle by 20, 96-76, on Friday night. The Owls, who played with a seven man rotation for much of the game, will need him soon.

Guest Contributor Ray Floriani: Dayton & Richmond at Seton Hall

by Ray Floriani
NEWARK, NJ- Christmas week brought a 'tour of the Atlantic Ten' to the Prudential Center. Seton Hall hosted Dayton on Wednesday and Richmond Sunday. Both games saw the Pirates enjoy half time leads only to be reeled in and out played the final twenty minutes. And both losses left Pirate coach Kevin Willard pondering the Hall's immediate future.

Dayton

69

Seton Hall

65

The Rock under lights

The Four Factors:

		FTA
	eFG%	FGA	OR%	TO%
Dayton	37	34	41	16
Seton Hall	44	16	33	14

The Hall led 40-26 at the break and appeared to be in full control. The all important first four minutes of the second half saw Dayton get out to an 11-6 advantage. With 16 minutes to play the margin was suddenly a manageable nine points. Dayton also scored four field goals, with three coming in the paint. A point of concern Hall coach Kevin Willard referred to after the contest.

Willard also had a concern about the rebounding. Dayton was tough on the boards and attacked the glass as OREB percentage shows. Matt Kavanaugh, a 6-9 sophomore, epitomized the Flyer effort coming off the bench for a team high 15 points while adding 7 rebounds.

Four Pirates were in double figures led by Jeff Robinson's 15 points. Jordan Theodore scored 13 points with 5 assists but greater defensive attention on the part of the Dayton guards in that final half, saw Theodore wind up shooting 5 of 13 from the floor.

Dayton had 70 possessions with a 99 OE. The Hall matched the offensive efficiency (OE) with 99 on 66 possessions. Those final twenty minutes Brian Gregory's club clearly set the pace with a 123-71 OE advantage.

Victorious Flyrs greet their fans

Richmond

69

Seton Hall

61

Snow is great for Winter scenes
not so for driving...

Efficiencies for the game:

		Off.
	Poss.	Eff.
Richmond	66	105
Seton Hall	68	90

The Four Factors:

		FTA
	eFG%	FGA	OR%	TO%
Richmond	52	18	27	17
Seton Hall	43	15	39	21

Richmond Coach Chris Mooney
fields questions from reporters

Observations
The Hall led 35-30 at the half but was unable to close the issue. This was a point discussed by coach Kevin Willard after the Dayton game as well as after this one. Seton Hall is simply unable to sustain the effort the full forty minutes. That is a point that must be addressed and altered for the Hall to start winning games of this nature against formidable opposition.

Willard was concerned that as the offense lagged the second half, the defense followed. Entering the game the Hall's defensive efficiency was a very creditable 89. This afternoon, it was 16 above average.

Herb Pope is still rounding into condition. The Pirates' junior forward did give a nice 9 point 12 rebound (team leading) effort in 28 minutes. Pope seems to be attacking the glass more aggressively the last two outings. A good sign.

Hall did a good job forcing the pace and getting in the lane against the Richmond defense, especially the first half. Willard noted that defensive letdowns in the second half hindered the offense. "It's hard to run when you are waiting for the ball to get through the net," he said.

Hall had three in double figures. Once again Jeff Robinson had an active 17 point 10 board effort. Jordan Theodore scored 15 points while Fuquan Edwin added a dozen.

Edwin's added minutes and the experience the freshman swingman is getting are a silver lining in the Jeremy Hazell injury.

Willard said an early January decision will be made regarding Hazell's return or medical red shirt. "We will do what benefits Jeremy the best," Willard said.

Richmond's OREB percentage margin is 25-29%. Simply they are -4 in the percentage margin (their minus that of the opposition). Hall enjoyed a healthy advantage in that area and had a 16-7 edge in second chance points.

Justin Harper led all scorers with 24 points. Richmond's 6-9 senior forward is effective inside or on the perimeter. Harper hit 6 of 8 from three and added a team high 8 rebounds.

Richmond entered with a 44% two point field goal percentage defense. Seton Hall shot an outstanding 68% from two the first half. Pirates cooled off, credit Richmond's defense, the second half finishing with a 41% mark for the contest.

The Final Five Minutes:
Taking a cue from Chris DiSano's "Ice Water in the Veins" article on College Chalktalk last season, is a possession breakdown showing how Mooney's club sealed the deal in the stretch.

Seton Hall led 59-57 with five minutes remaining. The results of those last possessions...

Poss	Richmond	Seton Hall
1.	field goal (Harper 2pt)	turnover
2.	field goal (Harper 3pt)	Miss (defensive reb)
3.	field goal (Garrett 2pt)	turnover
4.	Miss (defensive reb)	field goal (Robinson 2pt)
5.	field goal (Anderson 2pt)	Miss (defensive reb)
6.	field goal (Anderson 3pt)	Miss (defensive reb)
Total	12 points	2 points
PPP	2.00	0.33

Final Numbers
Seton Hall is 6-6, Richmond improves to 10-3. South Florida visit's the Rock on Tuesday to open Big East play. Willard reemphasized that "we have to make plays at the end of the game. Plays on the defensive end."

Hall finished 1-4 against A-10 opposition. They defeated UMASS on the road while losing at Temple, to Xavier on a neutral court and Dayton and Richmond at home. "In all our losses this season," Willard said, "we had a chance to win. We were right in the game."

Post game outside a snowy Rock