A10 Efficiencies -- An Aerial View of 2010

...And Then There Were Three
At the midpoint of the Atlantic 10's regular conference season, bracketologist all over the D1 universe were buzzing about the number of teams the conference would/could put into the NCAA Tournament. With speculation running as high as five, it may have been something of a letdown when three invitations actually went out. Three equals the number of invitations in 2008 & 2009 (their 2010 seeds were better though), and bettered their numbers for 2005 - 2007. Dayton, at times dominant in conference play, never seemed to engage with the season, missing early opportunities to build their resume. Rhode Island and Charlotte, surprisingly strong in their out of conference schedules with wins over Oklahoma State and Louisville respectively, sputtered late. Charlotte's swoon, an especially nasty 1-7 run in the 49ers' last eight games, cost coach Bobby Lutz his job. St. Louis, the youngest team in the conference going into the season, played to type early on (winning at Chaivetz, but losing -- at times badly -- on the road), but posted a strong 7-1 record in February and (best of all...) played a game in January quirky enough (all points scored on 2FGAs only) to draw warrant a post in Ken Pomeroy's blog. The Billikens would have had to run the table in Atlantic City however, to draw an invitation from the Selection Committee. The aerial view of the conference's offensive and defensive efficiency (conference games only)...

Note that the conference-wide efficiency was 1.011 points per possession (or adjusted for 100 possessions, 101.1 -- table below). The standard deviation suggests greater variability in defensive efficiency among conference teams than on offense.

	Efficieny		(Off - Def)	Avg=101.1
Team	Off	Def	Difference	Off	Def
Xavier	112.1	94.8	17.3	11.1	6.3
Temple	107.0	91.5	15.6	6	9.6
Richmond	105.9	94.3	11.6	4.9	6.8
Dayton	102.0	91.2	10.8	0.9	9.9
Rhode Island	109.2	103.3	5.9	8.2	-2.2
St. Louis	96.6	94.3	2.3	-4.5	6.8
Charlotte	101.9	102.1	-0.2	0.9	-1.0
George Washington	99.3	101.0	-1.6	-1.7	0.1
St. Bonaventure	99.4	103.8	-4.3	-1.6	-2.7
Duquesne	99.7	105.6	-5.9	-1.3	-4.5
La Salle	98.4	106.6	-8.2	-2.7	-5.5
Massachusetts	99.2	107.4	-8.2	-1.8	-6.3
Saint Joseph's	94.5	105.5	-11	-6.6	-4.4
Fordham	89.4	114.1	-24.7	-11.7	-13.0
Average	101.1	101.1
Std Dev	5.77	6.63

The teams which posted positive efficiency differentials went to the post season, while those who did not -- George Washington excepted -- ended their seasons before Selection Sunday. The configuration, most teams (10/14 -- 71%) located either in the "Good Offense/Good Defense" quadrant or the "Bad Offense/Bad Defense" quadrant, resembles the Big East aerial from 2009 (13/16 -- 81%). The Big East Conference was considered "stronger than usual" in 2009 -- true for the 2010 edition of the A10 perhaps? The conference's post season success (Temple and Richmond, two first round losses aside...) was also rather notable...

1. Xavier went to the Sweet Sixteen where the Musketeers lost by five points to Kansas St. in the second overtime period.
2. Dayton won the NIT, beating North Carolina.
3. Rhode Island ran to the NIT semi-finals, losing by a point to North Carolina in overtime.
4. St. Louis lost to Virginia Commonwealth in the CBI finals.

Observations...
A few thoughts as I reviewed the aerial and underlying data (and sometimes team-related data)...
1. Dayton was clearly an outlier. I suspect (though have not confirmed) that a team that places in the "Good/Good" quadrant in any of the BCS conferences would receive an NCAA bid. The Flyers, victims in part of a late charging Billikens squad (they were 0-2 in that series last season), appeared unable to finish close games. Coach Gregory's squad was 1-7 in conference games decided by five or fewer points. Location mattered as the Flyers were 0-6 in close games on the road, and 1-1 in close games at home. Dayton returns a squad weighted heavily with rising junior and seniors, but as a whole, they (along with a few rising sophomores), represent just over 50% of the minutes logged in 2010. Winning the NIT is, given where the squad stood on March 13, the best possible ending, but Coach Gregory may have missed on his best chance to field a squad capable of taking a deep run into the NCAA field.
2. Richmond, Temple and Xavier, the three teams that finished in the "Good/Good" quadrant return about (give or take) the average of returning minutes next season. Fans anticipating strong showings for the Spiders, Owls and Musketeers should not be disappointed.
3. The Billikens' run through the CBI was a good start for a squad that returns virtually intact next season. St. Louis, typical of Coach Majerus' coached teams led with defense. Success in 2011 will no doubt depend on how they progress offensively.
4. George Washington, the seventh conference team invited to a post season tournament is, re-checking the chart and tables above, an outlier. The Colonials were eliminated in the first round by the tournament's eventual winner, Virginia Commonwealth University. Unlike the NCAA and NIT, the CBI does not appear to have a quantitative criteria for seeding their field. GW boasted two headliners, A10 Honorable Mention Damian Hollis and A10 All-Rookie first teamer Lasan Kromah, which combined with the local match-up (VCU is located in Richmond, Va, about 50 miles southeast of Washington DC), increased the chances the game would draw media attention and a box office.
5. Charlotte, a near-miss for the post season in 2010, returns nearly all of their squad. First year head coach Alan Major steps into a nearly perfect situation for a new coach. If he can address the defensive problems and avoid the pitfall of trying to install a brand-new system without due consideration to the talent on hand, he ought to be able to get that squad to take the next forward step.

Looking Back at February Expectations

The Snow Wasn't the Worst Part...
I posted an entry at the beginning of the month that took a look at Februaries of season's past and ran a few numbers for Villanova's record in February under Coach Wright. In the aftermath of last night's loss (a surprise to me irrespective of the numbers and projections...) I thought I would take another look at that February 1 Post.

At that point Villanova had a single loss and was keeping pace with Syracuse for the conference lead. The Orange were up a win, but the important loss column was even. I noted that Pomeroy was predicting a 5-3 record (and secretly thought he was underselling the Wildcats), while also noting the team had averaged closer to a 0.700 winning pace in the prior four seasons. That would have produced a record of 6-2. 0.500 would have been more accurate, as Villanova went 4-4 through the month, taking losses from Georgetown, Connecticut, Pittsburgh and Syracuse. The last three coming in the past two weeks. Ouch. Let's hope March is a better month. A bit less snow and few more wins. Ok, a lot more wins.

Freshmen of the OOC -- Ten to Watch

Too Early for Rookie of the Year Discussions?
The out of conference portion of the season gives way to the conference season. I was pulling together some player stats going into Big East play and I started to think about some of the players identified in the preseason voting. How were they doing? As I looked through Pomeroy's player ratings I recognized some of the newcomers, saw a few I was unfamiliar with (at least beyond the preseason writups), and a few missing in actions. After extracting the "true freshmen" from the individual team pages I sorted them by playing time (%Min) and eliminated any who had played <30% of the time in their positions. The OOC is a good time to get into the team rhythm, and if a freshman was not logging minutes now, why would he later (absent an injury or recovery)? I then sorted the 15+ remaining players by the percentage of possessions they drew (%Poss), using Oliver and Pomeroy's metric to identify the player's role in the offense (I also looked at percentage of shots taken -- %Shot -- and included that stat in the table below).

							Reb%		FTA
Player	Team	%Min	ORtg	%Poss	%Shot	eFG%	Off	Def	FGA	Ast%	TO%	%Blk	%Stl
Stephenson	Cin	70.8	103.7	23.7	24.9	49.6	6.1	12.2	24.8	20.5	17.6	1.4	2.0
Triche	Syr	50.0	121.7	23.4	21.9	71.9	3.1	5.5	43.8	23.5	22.8	0.4	3.3
Wayns	Nova	39.6	100.8	21.0	22.3	47.7	1.7	8.9	32.3	16.2	21.6	0.0	1.7
Council	PC	58.5	114.0	18.5	15.5	46.7	4.7	10.0	48.7	22.0	20.5	0.6	1.5
D Miller	RU	53.3	90.2	17.7	14.4	53.3	6.8	19.1	42.2	18.9	31.9	4.0	2.0
D Taylor	Pitt	40.6	125.9	17.3	15.4	53.8	19.1	20.2	102.6	2.2	5.5	5.5	1.3
Fitzpatrick	USF	47.3	80.5	17.1	15.9	38.3	10.8	16.4	34.0	6.0	25.1	3.3	1.6
D Cheek	Nova	40.4	104.2	16.8	18.5	45.5	7.6	9.8	34.5	8.1	14.8	3.0	1.9
Buckles	LVL	32.9	107.0	16.3	14.0	50.0	12.6	21.3	51.4	6.2	21.3	2.2	3.1
Oriakhi	Conn	73.4	92.7	12.4	11.5	46.2	9.2	19.7	51.9	3.2	19.9	7.1	1.2
K Wright	PC	32.9	154.1	12.0	14.9	61.0	6.6	12.7	22.0	7.9	2.8	2.1	0.7
F Hall	SHU	38.0	115.1	11.6	11.2	54.7	4.5	12.8	53.1	6.2	10.7	2.7	1.6
Thompson	GTwn	53.3	118.2	11.3	11.4	59.1	4.9	9.6	36.4	11.2	17.0	3.6	1.4

Top 500 rankings are highlighted with yellow; top 100 rankings by green.

Of Course!
Hardly surprising that the list is headed by Cincinnati's Lance Stephenson and Syracuse's Brandon Triche. Stephenson garnered a good many of the preseason honors and Triche has not been far behind. These two are the marriage of "what is offered" (by the player) with "what is neede" (by the team). Cincinnati, a defense-first squad that could not, outside of Deonta Vaughn, produce a sustained offfensive threat. Stephenson is instant offense. At worst he is a diversion, at best a penetrator and scorer. At the end of regulation against Gonzaga Stephenson took 2 of the Bearcats' last 3 shots (Stephenson was 1-2, Yancy Gates missed the layup that would have ended the game before overtime). Stephenson tied the Xavier game in regulation and sent it into overtime. Stephenson hit the free throws at the end of the Connecticut that broke the tie and won the game for Cincinnati. Brandon Triche steps into the roster spot vacated by Jonny Flynn. Perhaps a year earlier than Coach Boeheim anticipated...and maybe not exactly the role he envisioned, Triche has done a great job for the Orange, leading the team in assists and pulling down a top 500 ranking in that category as well. Transfer Wesley Johnson draws a lot of defensive attention, which provides enough for Triche to convert possessions into points efficiently, another top 500 ranking. And he has established some defensive bonafides with his theft rate as well. Standing for the Rookie of the Year and a place on the All Big East Rookie Team are theirs to lose. Should Cincinnati take a large leap in the Big East rankings this season, it would be hard to deny Stephenson's role in the jump & recognition for his contribution.

The Anticipated Arrivals
A few names on the list are familiar; their arrival has been expected, even planned for a year at least in advance. Their roles within their new team's structure have been defined, all that remains is for them to perform as expected. Coach Dixon knew DeJuan Blair would not exhaust his eligibility, he recruited Dante Taylor believing that if Blair stayed another season Taylor would have a great tutor. And if Blair left Taylor would step into the low post position immediately. Taylor is still a bit light on minutes, but his ranking for rebounds suggest he is filling the Panthers' needs well. As a bonus he does not turn the bal over, scores efficiently (though he is no more than the 4th option when on the court). The second nearly entirely vacated front court since 2007 makes for a terrific opportunity for Alex Oriakhi of the Huskies. Oriakhi was recruited for rebounding and a defensive presence, and by-and-large he has delivered on those assignments, earning top 500 ranking in the things expected of a front court -- rebounding, getting to the free throw line and blocking shots. Connecticut however, appears to be in need of a few more offensive options, and right now Oriakhi, functioning as a 4th/5th offensive option (mostly putbacks) is putting up numbers much like an ordinary freshman. His offensive rating, 92.7 is more typical of an "average" freshman than a top 20 recruit. Villanova's Maalik Wayns & Dominic Cheek are no strangers to the Nova Nation nor the McDonald's committee. Wayns committed to Villanova as a sophomore at Roman Catholic High School in Philadelphia. And Dom Cheek was courted by North Carolina and Kansas before throwing his lot in the Wildcats. Both knew coming in that Villanova had guards galore already (Reynolds, Redding, Fisher and Stokes) and a coach who was not concerned with defined roles -- he would play 4 guards at a time (and he had 5 on the court briefly against Marquette in Villanova's conference opener) if circumstances warranted. Wayns has posted double digit points 3 times so far this season. So eager to work in Georgetown's system, Hollis Thompson enrolled a semester early (the spring of 2009) and practiced with the team. His contributions are needed as Coach Thompson enters this season with another light roster (eleven players) and another mid-season defection (Nikita Mescheriakov), Thompson's contributions will be to the Hoya's interior defense (see his blocks) and as another efficient option (though well down on the pecking order) on Georgetown's offense.

The Unexpected
Providence's Vincent Council was brought in to play behind senior point guard Sharaud Curry. Curry is having a good season, but Council is logging about 21 minutes a game playing in tandem with Curry and taking the lead guard spot when Curry rests. While he has posted double digit points in 6 outings so far, his 2:1 assist-to-turnover ratio is most valued by the staff. In the St. John's game on Sunday (1/3) Council scored only 6 points in 29 minutes of play, but managed to dish 6 assists to 3 turnovers (and 3 steals). 6-7 210 pound Dane Miller was not the "name" in the Scarlet Knight's incoming class. But the wing has earned a spot in the rotation, appearing in all 12 games (Sunday 1/3 excluded) so far. If his turnovers (a very freshman-like 31.9%) is a detraction, he makes up for it with rebounds, especially on the defensive side, and his blocks. With sophomore #4 Greg Enchenique sidelined with an injury, Rutgers needs to replace his rebounds somehow. Miller is contributing. Louisville's forward Rakeem Buckles is part of a jig-saw puzzle of wing/front court players that includes fellow freshman Mike Marra, sophomores Jarred Swopshire, Terrence Jennings and Kyle Kuric, and senior Reggie Delk. The staff is spreading around the minutes looking for efficient offense and defense. In Buckles' favor right now, rebounding and efficient (if not exactly take-the-game-over) shooting. Against him, turnovers. There are a few Cardinals who have a turnover problem (a problem that seems to afflict the point guards, freshman Peyton Siva and junior Edgar Sosa, for example).

Wait 'til Next Year
South Florida's Toarlyn Fitzpatrick anticipated playing behind senior Alex Rivas-Sanchez and sophomore Gus Gilchrist this season. Fitzpatrick is starting because his 2 elders are wrapped up with rehabbing injuries right now. Fitzpatrick has to hold the fort until they return sometime in mid-late January. Should he take full advantage of the opportunity however, he may yet carve a spot in the regular rotation. Providence's guard/forward Kyle Wright adds depth to the Friar's complement of Marshon Brooks and Brian McKenzie. At this point in the season he is pulling down about 32% of the minutes. Seton Hall's freshman forward Ferrakohn Hall is something of an early season surprise. There are a few forwards with similar dimensions and more collegiate experience (Stix Mitchell and Jeff Robinson), and sure enough, Hall's playing time has diminished as Memphis transfer Jeff Robinson has become eligible to play. In the 8 games before Robinson became available Hall averaged 16.6 minutes, in the 5 games since, Hall has average 9.4 minutes.

And Then There is...
Every team (maybe Seton Hall excepted) had 1 or 2 true freshmen they believed would contribute immediately. A few teams (Cincinnati & Syracuse and others) are not disappointed. Others are still waiting for their name rookies to get going. Peyton Siva's playing time was probably going to be limited if Edgar Sosa came around. Sosa is still turnover prone (21.7% as of 12/27), but is logging over 60% of the time because (in part) his assists are up (31.0% as of 12/27). And hitting his FGAs at a 60.1% rate (eFG%) is no strike against him. Siva by contrast has played less the 30% of the available minutes and, like Sosa, has a turnover problem (34.3%). 6-1 guard Junior Cadougan was slated to step into Dominic James' shoes (and his legacy?) in the weeks just after classes started at Marquette. An Achilles' tendon rupture has sidelined him for the 2010 season. Villanova's Mouphtaou Yarou was penciled in as the starting #5 virtually from the moment he stepped onto the Mainline. A routine blood test in the days before the Wildcat's Puerto Rico turned up a case of Hepatitis B, sidelining Yarou pending treatment and retesting. Villanova announced he has been cleared medically to play again, and though he sat out Villanova's Big East opener against Marquette, expect to see him logging game minutes soon. His D1 acclimation has been set back about 6 weeks, those who are looking for significant immediate contributions may be disappointed.

The Big East -- Comparing BCS Records

Oh Providence...
A quiet story through the first week+ of the season was the cumulative conference records, especially among the power (BCS) conferences. Preseason stories for example, heralded the return to glory of the SEC, led of course by the resurgence of the Kentucky program even as those writers anticipated a less dominant Big East Conference. The won-loss records compiled by the BCS conferences suggest the Big East may not be ready to go gently into that good night. 2009's most dominant conference opened the 2010 season with a 40 game winning streak that exceeded the next lengthiest conference (the Big 12) by 11. Which conference was the "last to lose"? In truth it came down to the Big East and Big 12 again. And who went last was not clear, as both Providence and Kansas State (the two who lost "first" in their respective conferences) started their ill-fated games at 8:00 EST (Providence-Alabama, Kansas State-Mississippi). I suspect, given the time lag in the game schedule at the Puerto Rico Tip Off Classic, that the Big 12 lasted about 20-25 minutes longer than the Big East counterpart. The summary through Friday evening per Ken Pomeroy's Rating Site...

	Record				Adjusted				Eff.
Conference	W	L	Pct	Pomeroy	Off.	Def.	Pace	SOS	Diff
Big 12	30	2	0.938	0.8948	116.2	87.7	70.9	0.4753	28.5
SEC	29	6	0.829	0.6720	107.5	98.0	68.2	0.4452	9.5
Big East	41	2	0.953	0.6839	110.3	96.8	70.8	0.4393	13.4
ACC	30	3	0.909	0.8751	104.9	69.4	67.7	0.4174	35.5
PAC 10	22	7	0.759	0.6515	111.0	99.5	70.8	0.394	11.5
Big Ten	23	8	0.742	0.5922	96.6	88.7	68.4	0.2925	7.9

The table is sorted by Strength of Schedule (SOS). The season is still very young (about 15% of the total games this season have been played), with the conference SOS and Pomeroy Rating still volatile. I looked at the totals for Thursday and found the Big Ten had the highest SOS. Note the Big East is ranked 3rd in adjusted offense (110.3) and 4th in adjusted defense (96.8). Efficiency Difference (Eff. Diff) derives from subtracting the ajusted defensive rating from the adjusted offensive rating. More teams accounts for more wins? Maybe, but consider Big East teams are averaging a won-loss record of 2.6-0.13 per team, while the Big 12 averages 2.5-0.16 and the ACC averages 2.5-0.23 per team through Friday night.

Last Thursday was brutal for the Big Ten, as the conference went 1-3, their teams taking losses to North Carolina (Ohio State), Mississippi (Indiana) and UNC-Wilmington (Penn State).