Providence Post Game: Technicals, Part 3

We Got Tangled Up...
There are three types of technicals...
1. Smart Technicals -- The coach wants to communicate with an official (or his team), and normal channels, already used, have not worked. A month ago in Louisville Coach Wright was angry his team was on the short end of a number of calls. A well-timed (if apparently spontaneous) outburst directed at an official seemed to get everyone's attention. The dynamic changed after that call. The calls tended to "even out", and the low post play tended to get fewer whistles.
2. Failed Technicals -- When a coach rides an official into calling a technical he (or she) is taking a calculated gamble. The upside is that it can change the dynamic of the game. That is, it can change the way the officials interact with the two teams and call the game. It can change the intensity with which the coach's team plays the game (and approaches their opponent). The immediate risk is the prospect of giving away up to two points on the current possession, and immediate possession of the ball. That can be tricky, because the opponent might score between zero (at the best) and four points (at worst) in that conceded possession. And a change in the dynamic (if any change in fact comes to pass) may be for the worse. If the gamble pays off, the coach is a genius -- see Smart Technicals above. And if the "T" has no effect, or heaven-forbid, a negative effect, it has to go down as a failed gamble. In the 2/06 Georgetown game, the technical called on Coach Wright at 7:07 of the first half was the tenth foul called on Villanova to that point. Georgetown had picked up three fouls. Through the rest of the half, the Hoyas picked up seven more fouls to Villanova's five. But Coach Wright's gamble backfired as the Wildcats, down by nine at the time of the "T", ceded another 10 points to Georgetown, and went to the locker room down 19 at the half.
3. Knucklehead Technicals -- Head coaches are not the only ones who draw technicals. An assistant coach or two have been known to draw the ire of an official, and a technical to boot. This season a student manager was identified as the culprit in an incident. No surprise he was let go the next day (justly or unjustly...). And of course, players have also drawn technicals. The Villanova-Providence actually saw two players, both seniors, draw technicals. Unusual in that that each drew his respective technical in two separate incidents that occurred in different halves. Normally two players will exchange words, and engage in some shoving. While not serious enough for an ejection (which leads to an inevitable suspension...), the game referees will assess a technical to each player, thereby negating any advantage one or the other team may draw from the incident. The first half technical was assessed against Reggie Redding, a senior suspended for the fall semester during the summer of 2009. Redding has returned, but has yet to round into the form that had Villanova fans excited last spring. It was a contest rebound after a Vincent Council miss. Council got the rebound (and I thought a foul, announced by the PA at the time, but not recorded in the Play-by-Play). Redding raised his arms (shoving, not punching), and the referee put Council on the line to shoot and then take the ball out of bounds. A tightly contest game, going nip and tuck through 31 ½ minutes. Both sides probing for an edge, any advantage that will help them put the other side behind them and keep them down. And then senior Sharaud Curry snapped. He was called for his fourth foul, the second foul in just over a minute, for a block on a Scottie Reynolds drive. Looking up at the official, Curry lost it, snapping "What foul?" at the official as he raised his arms in a shrugging gesture. That was, apparently, enough for that official, at that point in the game. The technical became Curry's fifth, and the senior watched the last eight minutes from the Providence bench.

The Official website has an AP wire story, some post game notes and the box score. The breakdown by halves...

Opponent	Providence
	1st	2nd	Game
Pace	44.5	36.5	81.0
	Offense				Defense
	1st	2nd	Game		1st	2nd	Game
Rating	89.9	142.5	113.6		78.7	126.0	100.0
eFG%	52.9	51.5	52.2		41.1	50.0	46.0
TORate	27.0	8.2	18.5		22.5	16.4	19.8
OR%	23.1	46.4	39.0		15.0	39.1	27.9
FTA/FGA	17.1	66.7	41.2		53.6	52.9	53.2
FTM/FGA	8.6	54.5	30.9		42.9	35.3	38.7
ARate	68.8	43.8	56.3		88.9	46.7	62.5
Blk%	8.6	3.0	5.9		10.7	8.8	9.7
Stl%	12.8	6.0	10.0		14.2	5.1	9.8
PPWS	1.06	1.20	1.13		1.00	1.08	1.04
2FG%	44.0	60.9	52.1		26.7	50.0	40.5
3FG%	50.0	20.0	35.0		38.5	33.3	36.0
FT%	50.0	81.8	75.0		80.0	66.7	72.7
%2FG	55.0	53.8	54.3		22.9	47.8	37.0
%3FG	37.5	11.5	22.8		42.9	26.1	33.3
%FT	7.5	34.6	22.8		34.3	26.1	29.6

Half-time Adjustments
Given both teams are known more for offense than defense (this season anyway) and for high possession games, I thought the pace would be well into the 40s by half-time, and the score somewhere in the mid-40 to low-50s. I was half right, as the pace was a scorching 44.5 possessions. That works out to between 88 and 89 possessions over the course of the game. The points -- Villanova had 40 and Providence was just five points off that mark at 35, came from volumn (of possessions), not from offensive efficiency. Check the table above for each team (under first half). Neither team broke 100 for efficiency (points per 100 possessions). Villanova checked in with an offfensive rating of 89.9 (or about 0.9 points per possession) while Providence was an even less impressive 78.7 (or about 0.79 points per possession). For the Wildcats, the problem was not getting their shots to drop, a 52.9% eFG% is not bad at all, the problem was getting the shot off. Or a second chance if the first FGA missed. Villanova lost over 1 in 4 possessions in the first half and rebounded only (about) one in five misses, not good numbers. The Friars shot poorly, plain and simple.

Notes & Observations
1. The Coreys and Reynolds became the focal point for the offense. In the past seven games Fisher and Reynolds have either "tied" each other (four times) or come within a point (once) in five of those games. Saturday the number was 22, and both players hit that mark, Fisher in 33 minutes, Reynolds in 27 minutes. Stokes took as large a role as the other two, but had did not convert with the same efficiency as Reynolds and Fisher (31.8% eFG% vs 53.6% and 66.7%).
2. Antonio Pena logged his 6th double-double of the season, his first in February and the first since Notre Dame.
3. Isaiah Armwood had the most promising outing of the freshmen. He scored five points on 1-2 (0-0, 1-2) and 3-4 shooting. His points were matched by his rebounding and assists; he had five (1-4-5) rebounds and an assist in 15 minutes of play.
4. The staff played 11 players, but kept the starters in for 70.6% of the time, the largest slice allocated to the starting five since the Maryland game in early December. The starting five, Reynolds, Fisher, Redding, Pena and Stokes, is still in place. The starting five has remained the same since Delaware.

Ref Notes
James Breeding, Ed Hightower and Doug Shows manned the crew. The crew called 48 total fouls on both sides, two more than the Villanova-West Virginia game, and nine more than Seton Hall, the last home game. 48 fouls is within the expected range, as were the number of free throws taken by both teams. This was Hightower's and Shows' first Villanova game this season, Breeding (3-0) officiated two earlier games.

Live Blogging
Doing my fourth Villanova live blog this season, I made a point of getting to the Wach early and settling into press row. Having an episode in the Georgetown game with the Wachovia's WIFI facilities, I wanted to make sure everything would be in place. My laptop froze (of course) five minutes before tip off, a problem I did not get worked out for about 15 minutes. That hurtle taken, I found the "normal" ebb and flow of the WIFI signal was less disruptive than in the earlier game. The staff provided real time stats on press row, an invaluable resource for this blogger. I will host Rush the Court's live blog from the UConn game on Monday night. After you have settled into your favorite message board game thread, be sure to open another tab and come over to Rush the Court.

Preview 2009-10 -- Providence Friars

Too Busy for the Details?
The Class of 2009 made the NIT twice during it's time in Friartown, disappointing when compared to the promise they offered in their debut back in 2006. With their loss in the 1st round of the NIT last March they passed into the record books, lasting a season longer than the coach who recruited them. They leave behind a new coach, and their point guard, a player around whom Keno Davis can begin the rebuilding process. Next season may be a bit tough for the Friar fans to watch, but at least they go in with no illusions. Prognosis -- A 4th quartile finish.

3 Years At a Glance
The Class of 2009 brought Providence most of their starting lineup, scorers in the front court (Geoff McDermott) and the back court (Weymini Efejuku) and rebounders (McDermott & Jon Kale). The Class of 2009 made an impact with their presence. And in 2010 the impact will come from their absence.

	Returning...
	2010	2009	2008
%Min	36.0	80.2	66.2
%Pts	34.4	82.6	57.1
%FGM	33.3	83.8	54.6
%3FGM	54.2	76.8	71.1
%OReb	23.0	81.7	63.1
%DReb	25.4	87.4	66.4
%TReb	24.6	85.4	65.3

Sharaud Curry's red shirt in 2008 may have snuffed Tim Welsh's lasts hopes for a longer coaching tenure, but it may salvage a modicom of Friar self respect in 2010. The high percentage of returning 3s reflects the return of Providence's back court and wing starters. The big vacancies in 2010, and hence the opportunities, will come in the front court (notice the very low percentage of returning rebounds?).

	According to Pomeroy...
	2008-09		2007-08		2006-07
	#	Rank	#	Rank	#	Rank
Overall ORtg	110.5	52	110.4	60	112.2	58
Overall DRtg	99.3	131	97.1	95	96.9	90
Big East ORtg	106.2	9	102.7	11	102.2	7
Big East DRtg	108.6	14	108.6	13	100.5	10
Four Factors -- Overall
All Off. eFG%	50.6	104	51.5	106	53.7	39
All Off. TOv%	19.7	128	20.8	171	23.6	283
All Off. OReb%	36.3	59	36.0	62	41.3	5
All Off. FTA/FGA	39.5	87	32.3	267	34.5	208
All Def. eFG%	50.5	235	50.3	189	49.2	109
All Def. TOv%	20.1	181	21.9	117	20.0	223
All Def. OReb%	36.5	302	36.1	296	33.2	152
All Def. FTA/FGA	29.1	24	37.1	181	33.4	101
Four Factors -- Big East
BE Off. eFG%	52.2	5	51.4	5	51.6	3
BE Off. TOv%	19.3	11	20.8	11	23.4	15
BE Off. OReb%	33.6	11	32.2	10	38.2	4
BE Off. FTA/FGA	41.2	4	32.2	13	23.5	10
BE Def. eFG%	51.0	12	49.2	8	48.6	9
BE Def. TOv%	18.2	10	19.8	7	18.2	12
BE Def. OReb%	38.0	14	38.9	16	32.6	10
BE Def. FTA/FGA	28.6	3	40.5	11	32.6	10
Miscellaneious
All Gms Cons	21.4	224	21.6	216	21.8	222
All Gms Luck	+.023	80	-.036	248	-.033	229

Davis' 2009 squad, largely the same squad that took the court for the 2008 season (absent Dwain Williams, an outbound transfer and Greedy Peterson, a red shirt) nevertheless managed to improve their shooting and turnover percentage. The 2010 squad will feature many new faces in the frontcourt -- rebounding trends (largely unchanged over the past 2 seasons) are therefore, not predictive for 2010.

	For the Record...
	2008-09			2007-08			2006-07
	W	L	Pct.	W	L	Pct.	W	L	Pct.
Overall	19	14	0.576	15	16	0.484	18	13	0.581
Big East	10	8	0.556	6	12	0.333	8	8	0.500
Post Season?	NIT/Rnd 1			BET/Rnd 1			NIT/Rnd 1

Davis was able to improve the Friar's won/loss record, using the same personnel as the Tim Welsh teams of 2007 and 2008 (with the return of Sharaud Curry), should be taken as a good sign. The Friar teams of 2010 and beyond should more closely reflect Coach Davis' style of play and philosophy of the game.

The Friar's Nucleus
With the graduation of the Class of 2009, Coach Davis has a rebuilding job in 2010. He does however, have a few Tim Welsh holdovers to build around...

On Offense
Player	Min%	Ortg	Poss%	Shot%	eFG%	PPWS	OR%	FTR%
Curry	79.2	111.9	18.4	18.7	50.8	1.12	1.2	32.6
Brooks	52.5	107.9	22.9	26.4	50.9	1.07	7.0	28.3
McKenzie	47.4	88.6	15.8	17.1	39.6	0.85	5.1	21.5

Brooks was a mainstay ("Major Contributor") in the Friar offense in 2009, chances his role will expand are slim; Curry by his numbers however, shows the potential to take on more, and assuming he will be 100% for 2010, will most likely take more shots and possessions. McKenzie took a step back last season but, finding himself at the top of the depth chart on the wing, ought to buy him some long looks from the staff. He has "extended range" on his 3s, a skill valued by Coach Davis.

On Defense
Player	Min%	DR%	Ast%	TO%	Stl%	Blk%
Sharaud Curry	79.2	5.4	23.4	19.4	0.0	1.8
Marshon Brooks	52.5	10.9	12.5	15.0	3.1	2.6
Brian McKenzie	47.4	10.4	9.6	21.4	0.5	1.7

Significant Additions
The Friars may need name tags for the first few team practices. Coach Davis will blend three red shirts, freshman Bilal Dixon, a 6-8, 228 lbs forward out of Queen of Peace HS in New York City, junior Jamine Peterson, a 6-6 225 lbs forward and junior 6-11 265 lbs center Ray Hall, with seven newcomers, that number two JUCOs and five true freshmen. Peterson and Dixon will be crucial, as the Friars have a huge need for front court players. Peterson has a #3's body but a #4's game and mentality. Under the right circumstances Peterson may develop a productive role with the Friars next season.

Front court JUCOs Russ Permenter, a 6-7 225lbs #4 out of Temple College TX and an undersized, (6-5 200 lbs) #4, Kyle Wright out of Monroe CC in New York will see playing time early and often in the season. Of the true freshmen, 6-2 pg Vincent Council, a 5th year prep student out of the Patterson HS in North Carolina is held in the high regard by scouting services, as is 5-11 160 pound point guard Johnnie Lacy, a 5th year prep out of Notre Dame Prep in Massachussetts. Together Lacy and Council will no doubt provide good back up for Curry, and log some minutes in the off guard spot. The cohort's two front court players, Kadeem Batts, a 6-7 215 lbs #4 and James Still, a 6-8 205 lbs #5 seem undersized for the Big East. Given Providence's need and Davis' offensive philosophy and background (Drake out of the Missouri Valley Conference), it would not be surprising to see both used.


Explode If...
1. Ok, maybe not explode, but if Curry, McKenzie and Brooks can improve their outside shooting, they will definitely divert defensive attention from their less experienced under class teammates. Those three took a collective 49.7% of their FGAs from beyond the arc, but managed only a disappointing 33.2% conversion rate. These three also did not get to the line much -- only 18.3% of their points came at the charity stripe. These guys have the talent, and an experienced pg to set the table. Davis has to find some plays to give them good looks.
2. The front court gels. Really, really well.

Implode If...
A head coach (in his third year as a DI head coach no less) heads into his second Big East season with a squad that has 3 players (all new or back from a red shirt) 6-9 or taller, looking to his 4 Big East veteran players (all back court/wings) around which he will build his second team. Not a pretty picture. What defense can the Friars install that will divert attention away from their young low post presence?

Crucial Run/Bellweather Games
Providence will open the season with three games in the World Vision Invitational, hosting DI newbie Bryant University, Patriot League mainstay Bucknell and Mercer out of the The Friars have been faithful keepers of the flame for New England basketball, and will continue their local rivalries with Boston College, Brown and Rhode Island. Look for how the Friars handle those games, as Boston College is rebuilding, the Rams return a veteran squad (about 2/3 of the minutes from their 2009 squad -- Jimmy Baron the big loss) and the Bears, like the Friars, will have a lot of new faces to work into their rotation. 3-0 against the locals would be very good news. Providence will travel to Alabama in late November to face a rebuilding (under new coach Anthony Grant) Crimson Tide squad and down to Washington DC in December to face the A10's George Washington. Both games, against less-than-ready competition should provide road experience the Friars can use as they open the Big East season with two road games.

The Notre Dame stop on their opening road trip should be informative for both the Friars and Fighting Irish. Both teams are replacing important members of their respective squads (though for Notre Dame, the task appears a bit less daunting). The second stop, at St. John's, however, may say more about Johnnies' prospects than the Friars. St. John's points to 2010 as the season they move up in the conference, and a loss to the Friars would throw an early damper on the Storm's expectations. For the Friars however, a win in the Big Apple would be an unexpected lift. The four game run from January 9th to January 23rd -- a pair of home bookends (versus Rutgers and South Florida) that enclose a midwinter Midwestern road trip to Marquette and DePaul -- will tell us quite a bit about the Friar's prospects even as it provides a hint or two on how the conference's 4th quartile will sort out. Should the Friars run the table they will most likely finish with a 12th or 13th seed to the Big East Tournament, as they have another home game in which they should be favored (and a road game at South Florida). And a 6 win conference season, with a squad that has 3 players who measure 6-9 or taller (6-11 junior redshirt Ray Hall), would not be a bad thing. If Davis' squad really gels, late season (home) matchups with a rebuilding Syracuse and an interesting Seton Hall squad offer possibilities.

Roster Moves -- Early Draftees and Departures

No sooner had the Tar Heels won the National Championship than ESPN was putting together the Top 25 for next season. Rediculously early of course, given we did not even know who among the underclassmen would declare for the NBA draft. The deadline passed earlier this week (April 26th), so while who among the unsigned will stay in the draft we do have an idea of those who will not be back. Combined with a list of early (outbound) transfers, the situation for a number of Big East teams is a good deal clearer than it was even 3 weeks ago. Graduation and exhaustion of eligibility are predicatable. They can be planned for; a roster and "recruitment stream" can be developed based on those predicatble roster events. Early departures, irrespective of the rational (the NBA draft, transfer or transgressions -- academic or civil), can play havoc on roster planning and development. A quick look at the Big East's contribution to the Early Entry List...

School	Player	Yr	Status/Comment
Connecticut	Atar Majok	RS/FR	No agent
	Hasheem Thabeet	JR	Definitely gone
DePaul	Mac Koshwal	SO	No agent
	Dar Tucker	SO	Withdrew from DePaul
Georgetown	DaJuan Summers	JR	Hired agent
Louisville	Earl Clark	JR	Will hire agent
Notre Dame	Luke Harangody	JR	No agent
Pittsburgh	DeJuan Blair	SO	Hired agent
Syracuse	Eric Devendorf	RS/SR	No agent
	Jonny Flynn	SO	Will hire agent
	Paul Harris	JR	No agent
Villanova	Scottie Reynolds	JR	No agent

If most fans took early entry this post season for Clark (Louisville), Thabeet (UConn) and Flynn (Syracuse) as a foregone conclusion, Harangody (Notre Dame), Reynolds (Villanova) and Summers (Georgetown) were largely unanticipated. Yellow highlighted players have not hired agents to this point, and may well return after taking a few tryouts and getting feedback from scouts.

Transfers -- Outbound...
With the passing of the third week of the post season, outbound transfer notes have slowed to a trickle. Most begin as rumors in the last month or so of the season (or in the last weeks of the fall semester...) that are confirmed in the first or second week of the off season. Academic dismissals are still ahead, and disciplinary dismissals can occur at any time (never a "convenient" time), but the transfer list so far is illuminating if underwhelming...

School	Player	Pos	Yr.	Comment
Georgetown	Omar Wattad	G	So
Providence	Alex Kellogg	SF	So
Rutgers	Christian Morris	5	Fr	Mid-year
Seton Hall	Mike Davis	5	So
South Florida	Mike Mercer	1-2	Jr	Mid-year
St. John's	TyShwan Edmondson	1-2	Fr
Villanova	Casiem Drummond	5	So	Mid-year

Note that Drummond (Villanova-to-Marist), Mercer (South Florida) and Morris (Rutgers) all exited as the fall semester 2008 was concluding. The effect of those transfers was absorbed during the second half of the season. Of those who announced their departures after the season, Edmondson may have been the biggest contributor during the season. For a few teams the cumulative impact of departures may have an effect on performance next season. An alphabetically correct look at a few of those teams...

DePaul
Tucker had several eye-catching performances early in the season (the Creighton loss, for example), but by the end of February his moves were largely known and defensed pretty consistently. His shooting accuracy dropped even as his offensive rating (per Ken Pomeroy's DePaul Scout Page) declined from a decent (for taking 33% of the Demon's shots) 107.2 down to 95.0 (while still taking 1 in 3 shots). Tucker's possessive tendencies hurt the Demon's offense; his departure may well prove to be addition by subtraction, but losing Koshwal (should he stay in the draft), one of the conference's best rebounders at both ends of the court (and the second more efficient offensive player on the Demon roster last season) will hurt. The Demons will bring in a few good players next season, but Coach Wainwright will spend part of the spring signing period interviewing replacements for his entire staff. Under pressure from DePaul's AD to shake things up, Wainwright dismissed his entire staff. A Chicago-based recruiting hot shot would be a priority, and probably the only change that will save his job. Wainwright will start next season as the Coach Sitting in the Hottest Seat.

Georgetown
While many thought the Hoyas would have difficulty matching their 2007-08 numbers, few thought they would fall as far as they did this past season. Georgetown began the 2008-09 season with a 10-1 run, only to stumble to a 12th place finish in the Big East with a 7-11 conference record. They Hoyas went 6-14 over the last 3 months of the season amid rumors of dissention within the team and conflicts between several team members. Summer's exit to the draft after an unimpressive season confirmed there were problems. Omar Wattad, the 7th John Thompson recruit to transfer out in the last 4 years, will be replaced no doubt by a recruit more talented than he, but the cumulative effect of those transfers will be, going forward, a lack of senior and upperclassmen leadership on the squad. If the Villanova team demonstarated anything, it may be that the leaders were not the most productive members of the squad, but their contributions, both tangible and intangible, were important to the team's success.

Syracuse
The post season roster moves have to be counted as the most bizaare of the conference's teams. In the Orange's last week of the season, Jonny Flynn announced he would be back next season. Less than two weeks later he reversed himself and announced that not only would he test the draft, but he would hire an agent and absolutely leave. According to both Paul Harris and Eric Devendorf, each was "taken by surprise" when the team announced they were leaving for the draft. Neither apparently, had notified the team they intended to test the waters. Those two have not hired agents, so there is a theoretical possibility they may return. According to a post season interview however, it appears the Head Coach has already moved on.

Villanova
Losing Casiem Drummond was less painful and originally anticipated. Going into next season without Scottie Reynolds (should he decide to stay in the draft) however will deny the Wildcats their best scorer since Randy Foye. A last season may be beneficial to both Reynolds and Villanova. I am one fan who would look forward to seeing him play for the Wildcats one more season.

Providence #02 Post Game -- the Class of 2009

Senior Night was 2 weeks ago. The appointed victem was Rutgers, and the Wildcats almost apologetically allowed the Scarlet Knights to linger well into the 2nd half, before too gently putting the Knights out into that gentle night. Tonight the Wildcats, Class of 2009, said goodbye to their home in the Pavilion. And they did in their new style, rushing the Providence College Friars out the door in an ungentlemanly fashion. The breakdown by halves...

Opponent	Providence
	1st	2nd	Game
Pace	35.3	40.8	76.1
	Offense				Defense
	1st	2nd	Game		1st	2nd	Game
Rating	113.2	139.7	127.4		96.2	112.8	105.1
eFG%	45.9	68.1	56.8		50.0	59.6	54.5
TORate	11.3	7.4	9.2		31.1	27.0	28.9
OR%	39.1	33.3	36.6		47.1	30.0	37.8
FTA/FGA	18.9	38.9	28.8		24.1	88.5	54.5
FTM/FGA	16.2	22.2	19.2		17.2	57.7	36.4
ARate	71.4	76.2	74.3		53.8	69.2	61.5
Blk%	10.8	2.8	6.8		13.8	11.5	12.7
Stl%	8.5	2.5	5.3		25.5	23.9	24.6
PPWS	0.99	1.34	1.17		1.05	1.25	1.16
2FG%	34.8	56.0	45.8		58.8	53.3	56.3
3FG%	42.9	63.6	52.0		25.0	45.5	34.8
FT%	85.7	57.1	66.7		71.4	65.2	66.7
%2FG	40.0	49.1	45.4		58.8	34.8	45.0
%3FG	45.0	36.8	40.2		26.5	32.6	30.0
%FT	15.0	14.0	14.4		14.7	32.6	25.0

Half Time Adjustments...
With the exception of 2FGM defense, the first half looked like a typical Villanova game -- defense was on, turnovers negate/balance loose shooting defense (note the Stl% under defense, the 'Cats gambled quite a bit on defense and forced a lot of turnovers). As the table above suggests, Nova's offensive efficiency was 113.2, above their adjusted efficiency (111.5), even as their defensive efficiency, 96.2, was not quite up to their adjusted efficiency (90.8), but still below 100, generally considered the dividing line between "good" and "bad" defense. The teams traded buckets and the lead...for 5 minutes. The 14:50 mark of the 1st half had the 'Cats in the lead, and while the Friars hung with them for the next 30 or so minutes, they did not look as if they would even retake the lead, much less take the game. The preview posted earlier noted that shooting efficiency (eFG%) and turnover rates (TORate) might serve as keys to a win (or loss). The red & green highlighted sections in the table (above) monitor how well Villanova performed in those and other categories, relative to season-long numbers. Red again dominates on the defensive side of the table, but mostly confind to the 2nd half numbers. Coming into the game Providence was the #45 ranked team for offensive efficiency (per Ken Pomeroy's Stats Page) with a rating of 111.0 (adjusted). The Wildcats managed to hold the Friars below their offensive efficiency, despite allowing them to convert 2 pointers to better than their average (52.5). The 'Cats did a better job on 3 point defense -- in the 1st half.

Notes
1. Scottie Reynolds again had a great game at the Friar's expense. He scored 29 points, converting at an eFG% rate of 88.5, and a PPWS of 1.65, all in 36 minutes of play. Scottie was murder from the field, hitting 9 of 13 FGAs (5-9, 4-4 3s/2s). The game did not come down to 1-2 possessions; the Friars did not implement a foul for possession strategy.
2. Dwayne Anderson recorded an "Eye Candy" type game, scoring 19 points in 17 minutes of play. Though logging only 43% of the minutes at the wing he put on a performance more typical of Dante, Scottie or Corey F, taking 39% of the available shots and hitting at a 77.3% (eFG%) clip. His PPWS was 1.59. His Pavilion Swan Song featured 7 rebounds (along with Dante he posted strong offensive rebounding percentages on a night when the Wildcat's rebounding was a little down), 3 assists, 1 block and 4 steals. He might be ready for the Big East Tournament.
3. The offense, based on Shot%, appears to have gone through Cunningham, Reynolds, Stokes and Anderson. Reynolds, Stokes and Anderson had very efficient nights. Dante was off just a little -- he has been drawing some attention from defenses lately.
4. The night was about sharing the limelight and the game -- a most appropriate closing for the class that has won more games (97 and counting...) than any other. In the game where this recorded the 1st 25 win regular season in 57 years all 8 members of the regular rotation scored points and grabbed rebounds. The team had a 74% assist rate, posting a 3.71:1 assist-to-turnover ratio. Senior Frank Tchuisi also played for a minute, grabbing a board and scoring from the free throw line. The night was an outstanding example of team offense. Reggie Redding led the team with 11 assists.

Ref Notes
The crew was manned by veterans Karl Hess, Jamie Luckie and Mike Stuart. All three have run at two earlier Wildcat games this season. The two teams were whistled for a combined total of 42 fouls, high compared to the past few games, but well off the season high game run by the Jim Haney/Curtis Shaw/Michael Stephens crew (53 fouls). Both the home and visiting teams' fouls and free throws were within the standard deviation for Wildcat home games this season. The Wildcats have a 6-1 record when at least one from this crew was running the game.

Preview -- Providence #2

The Wildcats will close out their Big East regular season when they host the Providence College Friars at the Pavilion Thursday evening. Providence was Villanova's 3rd mirror (home-n-away) opponent in conference play this season. The Wildcats beat the Friars, 94-91, in a track meet at the Dunkin Donuts Center back on February 4th. Nova leads this series 49-34...

So Far, & What They are Playing For...
...Since their first meeting, Providence (18-11, 10-7, RPI #69) has entered an alternating win-loss "doublet" sequence (LLWWLLWW...) that they have run to a 10-7 Big East Conference record so far. An RPI-based comparison will highlight Villanova and Providence's body of work this season...

		vs RPI			Conference
	RPI	1-50	51-100	>100	Overall	Home	Away
Providence	69	2-7	3-4	18-0	10-7	6-3	4-4
Villanova	14	5-6	6-0	16-0	12-5	6-2	6-3

The highlight of their season so far is the 67-57 win over then #1 Pittsburgh at the Dunkin Donuts on February 24th. That win, combined with their above .500 conference record are two strong points on the resume the Selection Committee will mull over at the end of next week. A run in the Big East Tournament will bolster those credentials. A road win over a Top 25 team would help too. Providence is in contention for a Tuesday night bye in the Big East Tournament. A win at Villanova would virtually guarantee a Big East Tournament bye into Wednesday night. Villanova is in the hunt for the double bye at NYC. They hold the tie-breaker over Marquette, and a win over Providence gives them no worse than a tie with Marquette (no matter how the Warriors do in their last game with Syracuse)...

Roster Notes...
...The Friars have changed very little over the month, Coach Davis has spent February fine tuning his basic 8 man rotation. McDermott and Kale will start in the front court with Randall Hanke rotating in for 10+ minutes. Coach Davis goes with experience in the back court, starting Curry at the point, with Efejuku and Xavier on the wing. Brian McKenzie and Marshon Brooks will see double digit minutes on the court as well. Brooks has emerged as the Friar's spark plug off the bench. His offensive rating, as of 3/1, was 111.5, an outstanding efficiency, though down a bit since early February (no doubt from the attention he has drawn), but still above the team's efficiency (110.9). Efejuku has improved over the course of February, bumping his offensive rating (according to Pomeroy's Providence Team Page) from 108 to 113 while maintaining his shot% (at about 23%), a very good sign of his development.

Villanova's staff has started Dante Cunningham & Shane Clark in the front court for the last 11 games, most of the Big East season, expect it to continue tonight in this, the last game these seniors will play at the Pavilion. Dwayne Anderson, the third starting senior, will hold down the wing, with Scottie Reynolds and Reggie Redding manning the back court spots. Clark's offensive rebounding has been outstanding (with one or two exceptions) during this run. Reggie Redding has developed nicely, contributing where he is needed (points, defense, rebounding) when one of the others struggles. The rotation runs out to 8 men, so expect the Coreys, Fisher and Stokes to see time in the back court (Fish) and wing (Stokes), with Antonio Pena pulling some time in relief (or alongside of) Cunningham in the paint. Pena had 13 very effective minutes in the Notre Dame game, it would be terrific to see him have another productive outing before the Big East Tournament/NCAA...

By the Numbers, Offense & Defense...
With an adjusted tempo of 73.1, Providence is among the "fastest" D1 teams (ranked #12 -- the D1 average is still 66.7). The pace may suit the 'Cats just fine, as they have run off a series of uptempo wins in February (defense does seem to suffer...). Expect the pace for this game to go well into the 70s. The Friars have managed to maintain their offensive and defensive efficiencies throughout February (as the chart below shows), a very difficult accomplishment in the heart of the Big East season.

Comparing the elements that most influence Providence's rating with Villanova's defensive factors...

When Providence has the ball...
				FTA
	eFG%	TO%	OR%	FGA
Friar O	51.0	19.0	36.5	39.1
Wildcat D	47.1	22.0	30.8	36.7

The Friars are more efficient at converting 2FGAs (52.5, #37 by Ken Pomeroy) than 3FGAs (32.2%, #256, also per Pomeroy), a bit paradoxical given Providence is among those D1 teams that are more inclined to shoot 3s (34.8% of their FGAs are 3FGAs, ranking them #115 among D1 schools). The Wildcats, committed to limiting conversions inside the arc, are currently holding opponents to a 45.3% 2FGA conversion rate. Their "shut down the inside" bias sets up an inside struggle with the Friars. Who will shoot tonight? In descendng order, expect shots from Brooks (26.7), Xavier (23.9), Efejuku (23.5) and Hanke (21.7). From beyond the arc, look for Jeff Xavier (-47.5), Brian McKenzie (33.6) or Marshon Brooks (-17.9) as those three are the most "outside" scorers on the squad, according to Kenvin Pelton's inside/outside formula (each player's score is listed in parenthesis). Efejuke, who came to Friar Town with the reputation as a mad bomber, has developed a bias towards inside scoring (18.5). Expect him to take a lot of shots (he is on the court a good deal), but will take the ball to the cup if the lane is open. Hanke is an extremely efficient scorer -- his eFG% is a Roy Hibbert-like 65.6 (remember, he takes no 3s).

The "Four Factors" look at Villanova's offense versus Providence's defense:

When Villanova has the ball...
				FTA
	eFG%	TO%	OR%	FGA
Wildcat O	51.7	18.8	36.1	43.4
Friar D	50.2	20.2	36.2	29.3

The eFG% contrast suggests the 'Cats should have a good night from the field. And if they miss, they should have a few 2nd chance opportunities. The Friar's (unlike the Irish) force turnovers, don't expect another 5 turnover night. What they don't do is foul. The margin of expected victory is >10 however, so FTMs may not play a big role tonight. But if the score is closer (a 1-2 possession game), those foul-induced points may not be available...

Want to Beat the Friars? Then...
Shooting dominates as a critical factor for both squads. But for Villanova, effectively limiting opponent's second chance points is becoming an important key as well. Both teams appear to have difficulty winning when the pace rises to 71 or higher.
1. Defend their shooting -- When the Friar's eFG% was 50.0 or lower they were 5-7. When they were held to 44.7 or less they went 4-7.
2. Hit your shots -- Villanova's eFG% has been 52.0 or better (Georgetown aside) in the last week or so of February. When the conversion rate has been that high, Providence's record is 3-8. Nova's record when they have converted at 49.0 or better is 11-0.
3. Limit Turnovers -- The Friars are 5-5 when their opponents have a turnover rate of 18.8 or less. The 'Cats are 13-1 when they turn the ball over at that rate or lower.

Finally...
...Carrots & sticks -- there are rewards and penalties for both teams tonight. Given the lateness of the hour, each is a good deal more tangible right now. Losing puts the Wildcats back to #5 seed and cheering for Paul Harris and the Orange (not something I want to do the last weekend of the regular season...). The 'Cats are looking at a #3/#4 seed in the Dance, a loss probably strengthens the argument for a #4 rather than a #3. The Friars want a Dance bid; the last chance for the McDermott, Kale, Efejuku (and with his redshirt year...) Hanke class. That group entered with so much promise four years ago, but aside from an NIT bid in their sophomore year, no life after the BET. These guys are very close this year.

Per Ken Pomeroy's Villanova Team Page, this game should go for about 74 possessions (both team's comfort zone), with Nova taking a 14 point win. Pomeroy's degree of certainty (87%) is well within a comfort range (near certainty?). Coupled with the margin of victory, this suggests the game should not be especially close -- not a 1 - 2 possession game. But of course that was also projected for the Georgetown game last weekend...

Providence Post Game -- Pace

A trip to Friartown and a game at the Dunkin Donuts Center has always been an honest barometer for the Wildcats. If they can play the Friars there without losing focus, not to mention the game, I have taken as a good sign. The team is making progress. The 'Cats won last night, 94-91 in one of those games that had a strange rhythm throughout. In an earlier season (2002 perhaps?) the 'Cats would have lost that game. In an earlier game this season, the Wildcats did struggle at the line late, not quite able to put an opponent away. Not last night. Faced with that sense of inevitability one feels when an opponent heaves a prayer from 3 feet this side of the midcourt line that hits nothing but net, and then follows with a rebound that pops out of your best rebounder's hands with a half dribble out the arc, barely square to the basket with another heave that falls, the 'Cats exhaled, and then hit the free throws they had to. The official website has the usual AP wire story & the official box score. The breakdown by halves...

Opponent	Providence
	1st	2nd	Game
Pace	41.2	42.8	84.0
	Offense				Defense
	1st	2nd	Game		1st	2nd	Game
Rating	118.9	105.2	112.0		82.5	133.3	108.4
eFG%	60.0	40.9	50.7		44.8	56.3	51.4
TORate	21.8	23.4	22.6		29.1	14.0	21.4
OR%	40.0	54.5	47.6		30.0	38.5	34.8
FTA/FGA	31.4	66.7	48.5		44.8	42.5	43.5
FTM/FGA	20.0	54.5	36.8		27.6	30.0	29.0
ARate	35.3	38.5	36.7		50.0	47.1	48.1
Blk%	2.9	6.1	4.4		0.0	2.5	1.4
Stl%	9.7	16.9	13.3		19.4	2.3	10.6
PPWS	1.22	1.04	1.12		0.97	1.19	1.09

Half Time Adjustments...
The first half went according to script. As the table above suggests, Nova's offensive efficiency was 118.5, above their adjusted efficiency (111.5), even as their defensive efficiency, 82.5, bettered their season adjusted efficiency (87.3). The first half was a series of three runs, two by the 'Cats that served as bookends to a run by the Friars. Scottie Reynolds fueled the first spurt, a 12-2 run that put the 'Cats up by 10. The Friars stormed back with an 18-8 run that knotted the game at 20 somewhere around the 8:37 mark. The 'Cats responded with one last 29-14 run to take a 15 point (49-34) lead into the locker room. That last run was sparked by consecutive 3 point conversions by spark plug Dwayne Anderson, who stroked a third 3 later in the run. Unlike the first run, 4 players contributed points in ways that highlighted the squad's offensive potential. The first half pace, 41.2, was unusually high, possibly the highest number of possessions in a half this season. VMI and North Carolina play at that pace.

While the 'Cats were able to push the scoring differential out to 19/20 twice during the 2nd half (at the 14:00 mark and later at the 11:00 mark), the Friar's guard corp, Jeff Xavier, Weyinmi Efejuku, Marshon Brooks, Brian McKenzie and Sharaud Curry unleashed a barrage of 3 point attempts (24!), an uncomfortably large number of which (11) found the net. The preview posted earlier this week noted that shooting efficiency (eFG%) and offensive rebounding rates (OR%) might serve as keys to a win (or loss). The red & green highlighted sections in the table (above) monitor how well Villanova performed in those categories, relative to season-long numbers. The sea of red that covers virtually every defensive category in the 2nd half bears testament to Nova's need for improvement, particularly 3 point defense and forcing turnovers. Coming into the game Providence was the #58 ranked team for offensive efficiency (per Ken Pomeroy's Stats Page) with a rating of 108.4 (raw) and 109.3 (adjusted). The Friars played offense to their efficiency, largely by converting 3FGMs and a great 2nd half effort on the boards. 133.3 is not the Wildcat's worst half of defense this season by the way -- that honor goes to the 1st half of the UConn game (not obvious because the 'Cats also posted one of their best offensive halves, making the effort a wash).

Notes
1. Scottie Reynolds broke out of his offensive slump, posting an eFG% of 50.0 and a PPWS of 1.23, while scoring 31 points in 35 minutes of play. Scottie lived at the line in the 2nd half, hitting 10 of 11 FTAs to seal the win. Putting the ball in his hands for the Wildcat's last possessions has become the strategy in games of 3 or less possessions. He forces a Hobbsian on Nova's opponents -- foul him and virtually concede the 2 points, or guard him closely as the clock winds down and make him force the play. Largely unrecognized was Scottie's contribution on the offensive boards, where he grabbed a very impressive 10.2% of the OBoards when he was on the court.
2. Dwayne Anderson recorded his first double-double of the season as he scored a season high 19 points to go with his 10 (3-7-10) rebounds. Dwayne uncharacteristically took 4 of his 11 FGAs as 3s, going 3-3 on 3s in the first half. Anderson came to Villanova with the reputation as a 3 point shooter, but had dialed that back last season to concentrate on rebounding and defense (and scoring inside the arc).
3. Dante Cunningham logged his 7th double-double of the season, going 5-5 from the field on his way to a 12 point, 11 (4-7-11) rebound night. Dante's efficiencies, eFG% (100.0) and PPWS (1.63 -- his 2nd highest of the season) are again very impressive. Cunningham took only 8.7% of the team's FGAs when he was on the floor (85% of the game). I am not sure why his teammates did not look for him more, though the 'Cats unusually low assist rate (36.7 for the game), coupled with a very high turnover rate (23.4 in the 2nd half), suggest the Friar made denying an entry pass to the low post a priority. Dante was whistled for 4 fouls, breaking his streak of 4 consecutive halves without a foul.
4. Corey Fisher is becoming an impact player for the 'Cats. Corey F logged only 16 minutes before fouling out, but took 36.8% of the team's FGAs during that period, scoring 12 points on 5-10 (1-4, 4-6, 1-1) shooting. Fisher was both prolific and efficient, posting an eFG% of 55.0 & a PPWS of 1.15. This was the second (of nine) Big East games that Corey F has fouled out of, the third in which he has been whistled for 4 or more fouls.
5. Reggie Redding posted his 2nd double-double of the season, on a quiet 12 points, complements of 6-11 (0-3, 6-8, 0-0) shooting and 11 (4-7-11) rebounds.
6. The offense, based on Shot%, appears to have gone through Fisher, Reynolds and Stokes. Reynolds and Fisher had relatively efficient nights, and were backed by a 2nd wave of scorers -- Dwayne Anderson and Reggie Redding.

Ref Notes
The crew was manned by veterans Tim Higgins, Ed Hightower and Paul Janssen. This was Hightower and Janssen's first Wildcat game this season. The game was physical, with a total of 50 fouls (24 against Nova, 26 against Providence) called. The number called against the Friars was more than the average called on Nova's away opponents and the 'Cats did get to the line more (above the standard deviation) than usual for an away game. The number of points scored at the line was, however, consistent with the proportion of points free throw shooting typically contributes to Nova's point total.

Other recaps/analysis
IBBW has posted 2 recap/reaction pieces and a highlight clip. (Good work Chris).
VUhoops.com posted a recap.

Preview -- Providence, the First Game

The Providence Friars will try to bounce back when they host the Wildcats Wedensday in the Dunkin Donuts Center in Providence, Rhode Island. The Wildcats & Friars continue a series that predates the Big East, going back to 1936. They have played 82 games over the past 73 years, Nova holding a 48-34 advantage. Villanova rides the wave of a 3 game winning streak...

Common Opponents, Good Wins, Bad Losses...
The 'Cats and Friars have 6 common opponents so far, Rhode Island was their lone OOC opponent, and the Big East conference schedule has supplied the other 5 (St. John's, UConn, Marquette, Cincinnati and Seton Hall):

	Nova		PC
Opponent	W/L	Diff.	W/L	Diff.
Rhode Island	W (N)	+13	W (H)	+1
Marquette	L (A)	-7	L (H)	-9
St. John's	W (H)	+19	W (H)	+21
Seton Hall	W (A)	(OT)+4	W (A)	(OT)+5
Connecticut	L (A)	-6	L (A)	-33
Cincinnati	W (H)	+21	W (H)	+9
Cincinnati			W (A)	+8

Providence (Big East, 14-7, 6-3, RPI #63) has had a few notably good wins, their best versus Syracuse (Big East 16-5, 5-4, RPI #24). All of their 7 losses have been to teams ranked #55 or higher. The most damaging loss to date was a 4 point home loss to Northeastern (CAA, 15-6, RPI #55) in their season opener...

Lineups, Rotations...
...First year Coach Keno Davis inherited an upper classmen dominated squad and has opted to work that group at every opportunity. He fixed on his starting lineup early and allocates to them between 68% and 72% of the PT.

In the front court expect to see senior forward Geoff McDermott (6-8, 235lbs) start beside fellow senior Jon Kale (6-8, 245lbs). McDermontt is a pass-first forward who prefers to set up shop on the perimeter and set up a teammate to score. When Coach Davis goes to his bench he will most likely bring in either senior #4/#5 Randall Hanke (6-11, 245lbs) or sophomore Alex Kellogg (6-7, 225lbs). McDermott, Kale and Hanke are well regarded rebounders, with McDermott ranked among Ken Pomeroy's Top 100 defensive rebounders, and Hanke ranked among Pomeroy's Top 100 offensive rebounders.

Coach Davis has installed a three guard attack, drawing again on the most experienced elements of the squad. Expect seniors Weyinmi Efejuku (6-5, 210lbs) and transfer Jeff Xavier (6-1, 185lbs) to start as off guards. Efejuku and Xavier form an inside/outside combination, with Xavier preferring a 3FGA (he hits at about a 35% rate) while Efejuku takes it inside, where he scores at about a 51.4% clip, but more importantly, gets to the line about once every 3 FGAs (that is about the same rate as a forward). Red shirt junior Sharaud Curry (5-10, 170lbs) will start at the point. Labeled a "Role Player" by Ken Pomeroy's system (see his Team Page) Curry is a consistent, though not prolific, shooter who looks for the open man -- he is ranked in Ken Pomeroy's Top 200 for assists per possession. Curry took a red shirt last season, and the team struggled with Xavier unexpectedly manning the point (and McDermott functioning as a point forward). Coach Davis has options to maintain the high game pace his Friars run. He will look to sophomore guard Marshon Brooks (6-5, l90bs) and junior Brian McKenzie (6-4, 205lbs) to come in a keep shooting/scoring. Both have logged just over 50% of the available for their positions. Brooks is the more efficient scorer and tends to limit his turnovers, but McKenzie has great range and is the better free throw shooter.

Dante Cunningham, Dwayne Anderson, Reggie Redding and Scottie Reynolds will start for the Wildcats. Antonio Pena usually starts, but his spot went to Shane Clark, making his first start this season, in the Wildcat's last game (Cincinnati). No matter who takes the last spot, the other will most likely see playing time. When Coach Wright looks for relief, he will turn to the Coreys (Fisher or Stokes). Cunningham has gone nearly two full games without be whistled for a foul (hopefully I did not jinx him here...), but if fouls become a front court issue, expect to see senior Frank Tchuisi be called on for spot duty.

By the Numbers, Offense & Defense...
Coach Davis kicked Tim Welsh's uptempo game up a notch as Providence plays for about 72 possessions, more than the rest of the conference. Their (adjusted) offensive/defensive rating, 109.3/97.7 suggests they, like South Florida, play pretty good offense and pretty "average" defense. A look at the "numbers underneath" give us an idea of how they do it.

When Providence has the ball...
				FTA
	eFG%	TO%	OR%	FGA
Friar O	51.3	18.9	37.9	37.2
Wildcat D	44.4	22.3	30.3	36.6

The Wildcat's shot defense will be put to the test yet again. Providence is ranked in the top 1/3 of D1 for shot efficiency, but they do a much better job hitting 2FGAs rather than 3FGAs. They do take 36% of their FGAs from beyond the arc however, so expect them to shoot away in the Dunk. Nova's OR% has declined over the past 3-4 games, according to Ken Pomeroy's Scouting Report (rank declined to #90), while Providence is another team that rebounds their misses well. The rebounding numbers, especially Nova's defensive rebounds will most likely be a sensitive number. The Friars distribute the scoring opportunities among Efejuku and Xavier from the starting lineup, but Hanke and Brooks will get more scoring opportunities when they are in. Both Brooks and Hanke are more efficient than Efejuku and Xavier, though those two play fewer minutes. Brooks only very slightly favors 2FGAs over 3FGAs; he will most likely draw Redding when the two are on the court. Hanke shoots 2s and does it very efficiently, much as he did two seasons ago, when much of his scoring came on putbacks. His biggest improvement this season has been on defense, emerging as one of Pomeroy's top 500 defensive rebounders. The "Four Factors" look at Villanova's offense versus PC's defense:

When Villanova has the ball...
				FTA
	eFG%	TO%	OR%	FGA
Wildcat O	50.7	18.6	36.1	43.2
Friar D	49.9	21.1	35.4	29.4

Nova should have a good night from the field as Providence is not defended the shot well lately. No doubt the level of competition has played a role, but the Friars are most deficient on interior defense, allowing opponents to hit 50.1% of their FGAs. Nova takes 69.5% of their FGAs inside the arc, hitting about 49.1% of the time, so this should be a good test for both squads. Rebounding under Villanova's boards seems to be pretty evenly matched. If second chance points become very significant how those matchups resolve may turn the game. Villanova likes to get to the line, nearly 1 in 4 points comes from free throws; Providence by contrast does a good job keeping opponents off the line...

Want to Beat the Friars? Then...
Shooting dominates as a critical factor for both squads. But for Villanova, effectively limiting opponent's second chance points is becoming an important key as well. Both teams appear to have difficulty winning when the pace rises to 71 or higher.
1. Defend their shooting -- When the Friar's eFG% was 50.0 or lower they were 4-5. When they were held to 44.7 or less they went 1-3.
2. Hit your shots -- Villanova's eFG% for the last 3 games has been 49.0 or higher. When the conversion rate has been that high, Providence's record is 7-7. Nova's record when they have converted at 49.0 or better is 12-1.
3. Limit their 2nd chances -- The Friars rebound about 38.0% of their misses. When Nova allows an OR% that high they have gone 1-3. Providence is 7-4 when they have been held to that rebounding rate or lower.

Finally...
...Coach Davis has gotten a senior-led squad off to a fast start in the Big East this season. A new coach, a new season, a new beginning. Perhaps. But Providence is coming off a 33 point spanking at the hands of #1 ranked Connecticut and Coach Davis' ability to remotivate his veterans will be tested.

According to calculations, this game should go for about 71 possessions, with the 'Cats taking a 5 point decision. If the possessions are that high, look for both teams to struggle, as Nova's record when the pace is that high is 3-3, while Providence, which has played 13 games with the pace > 70 is 7-6. I suspect that the 'Cats will want to see that a possession or two lower.

Guest Contributor Ray Floriani: A Night At the Rock

by Ray Floriani

NEWARK NJ - Seton Hall dropped a 98-93 heartbreaker in overtime to Providence on Wednesday at the Prudential Center. A few days have passed but this game is another interesting tempo free study. In the first half both Keno Davis of PC and the Hall’s Bobby Gonzalez had to be taking turns cursing and praising that three point line. It seemed neither team could miss.

At the half…

Team	Score	Poss	Eff	eFG%
Providence	46	37	124	72.0
Seton Hall	42	38	111	51.0

Providence was 9 of 12 beyond the arc while the Hall was 6 of 12. That’s a combined three point percentage of over 60%.

The second half and especially in overtime saw Providence make a concerted effort to go inside. Davis wanted to utilize his team’s inside strength, get the Hall in foul trouble and wear them down. It was successful. Gonzalez did not criticize the officials but wondered, "how did they shoot 42 free throws to our 22?". It was simply a change in shot selection as Providence attacked the basket.

	FTA by Half
Team	1st	2nd/OT
Providence	5	37
Seton Hall	6	16

Percentage of shots attempted from "three"

	% of 3FGA by Half
Team	1st	2nd/OT
Providence	40%	31%
Seton Hall	34%	43%

Another factor…The visiting friars grabbed an early overtime lead leaving the Hall in a ‘fouling mode’ to get the ball back.

Jeremy Hazell led all scorers with 30 points (7 of 12 from three). In the stretch, and OT, the Hall sharp shooter was closely guarded and did not get any great open looks. Jeff Frazier who was recruited and started his career for Gonzalez at Manhattan led the Friars with 20 points.

The final numbers…

Team	Poss	Eff	eFG%	OR%
Providence	80	123	60%	40
Seton Hall	81	115	58%	29

That offensive board disparity was another factor that contributed to the Hall’s foul situation.

Friar For (Another) Night

My Providence alum friend put me on to the reception/game tickets package offered through the New York Chapter. While a business commitment kept him out of the festivities he encouraged me to give it a try. My father (a pg at Bayonne HS back in the 1930s) was game, so I booked the reception/game, and at the appointed time, off we went. We parked at the Rock again and walked over to the Newark Club at 1 Prudential Center. It was a fantastic variety of well prepared food (Nova NJ Alum Chapter take note -- this is where you want to book the next time the 'Cats travel to the Rock...). The hostesses were gracious, even though I walked in with my block V cap on. In deference I checked it at the door. Thanks to Peter of Colts Neck and his son Brendon who, after inquiring of our affiliations (mine Villanova of course, and Pop I assured him, was of St. Peter's and Fordham -- we of course pledged to root vigorously for the Friars tonight...) enthusiastically offered us space at his table. After some conversation about location and the Friar's prospects, Pop and I finished our meal and headed back over to the Rock.

After we located our seats in Section 12, I shot a quick text off to my son's soccer coach (a Seton Hall fan, this is a frustrating season for his clan), settled Pop in and went off to try and catch up with Ray Floriani. Missed again, one of these days Ray and I will get our coordinates right (I am thinking about catching the Rutgers/Seton Hall game Ray). I headed back to my seat for the tip off and watched one of the most entertaining halves of basketball I have seen this season. The Friars were in complete control, racing out to a 41-27 lead with just under 5:00 left in the half. And then the Pirates began their comeback. Sharaud Curry picked up his second foul and had to sit. That seemed to stall the Friar's offense. He is getting back to that jet quick point guard (only with better judgment) that impressed me so much 3 seasons ago. In the space of about 3 minutes Jeremy Hazell dropped 3 3FGMs & 2 free throws on the Friars, while Stix Mitchell chipped in 2. And suddenly it was 41-40 Friars. Providence managed to close out the half with a 5-2 run and take a 46-42 lead into the locker room.

The key to Seton Hall I have decided, is to give Hazell his shots (sure you have to put a hand in his face when he launches a 3, but he is not going to put 60 points on the board), and clamp down on Gauss and Harvey's ability to penetrate. Oh, and have someone guard Stix. When you have the ball, punch it inside every chance you get. Take it at Garcia (and Davis), get them to sit, forcing the shorter Mitchell, Walters and Cajuste, to guard your bigs. The Pirates want to run very badly, so wear them out with a punishing inside game. Jeremy Hazell managed to get his 30 (9-18, 7-12, 5-7), but it was Gauss and Mitchell who, before they both fouled out managed to pick up 19 and 20 respectively. Where Paul Gauss found that 3 point shot of his I don't know, but when he hits it consistently it makes the Pirates a far more dangerous team. Unfortunately despite Jon Kale's 13 well earned points, Randell Hanke only got 3 touches, went 1-3 and scored 7 points. That's 20 points total from the low blocks. It seemed that the Friar wings could not decide whether to slow it down and punch it inside, or take the quick shot from the 3 point line. The shooter side seemed to win a lot in the second half, and the game seemed to be slipping away. They did manage to rally, down 84-83 with about :22 seconds left to force it in one last time to Geoff McDermott. He was duly fouled and though he had a chance to win at the line, he hit 1-2 and tied the game.

I don't know what it is between the Rock and me this season, but every game I have seen has gone to overtime. The Pirates, who had to be exhausted at that point (and down to Brandon Walters and Matt Cajuste to man the paint) finally succumbed. This time by a 95-91 score. The Friars could have folded, but they didn't. The Friars displayed some heart and determination tonight. And tonight they brought it home. Many thanks to Brian and Tom from Holmdel, who shared a good deal of insight about the Friars and put up with my, at times over boisterous, cheering. Hope you all got home safely. And thanks for letting me be a Friar.

2008-09 Preview -- Third Quartile

I didn't get this quartile right last season...
...and there is no reason to believe I will get it right this season either. The measure of a "second quartile" team that falls to the third quartile, or a third quartile team that falls down to the fourth quartile is often measured by an injury to the "wrong" player. Or a really bad season from a few critical players.

	2007-08 Season
	Overall			Big East			BET
Team	W	L	Pct.	W	L	Pct.	Seed	PS?
Cincinnati	13	19	.406	8	10	.444	10	CGI
Georgetown	28	6	.824	15	3	.833	1	NCAA
Providence	15	16	.484	6	12	.333	12	BET
Rutgers	11	20	.355	3	15	.167	16	NA

For the fourth quartile teams (many of whom appear there for the second season), either the offense or the defense was truly terrible (and the other, St. John's excepted) was not especially good either. A look at last season's the offensive rankings for third quartile teams may provide some insight on how these teams will fare this season...

	All Games					Conf. Games
Team	eFG%	TO%	OReb%	FTR%		eFG%	TO%	OReb%	FTR%
Cincinnati	14	12	9	15		14	11	5	15
Georgetown	1	13	13	11		2	13	13	8
Providence	5	11	6	14		4	12	11	13
Rutgers	16	15	16	12		15	14	16	14

Cincinnati -- The Problem With JUCOs...
After a very uncertain start that included double digit losses to Belmont, UAB, Illinois St. and Memphis the Bearcats appeared to be in trouble. Their record going into the opener at Louisville was 5-7, backed by an ORtg of 98.7 and a DRtg of 101.8. Picked for a lower division (fourth quartile?) finish the Bearcats appeared intent not to disappoint. The improvement on offense was measurable (see table above). Cincinnati showed modest improvement in taking care of the ball (turnover rate), and fairly dramatic improvement in offensive rebounding. The latter was of particular importance given the Bearcats rather dismal showing on field goal efficiency (their eFG% declined during Big East play, from 47.3 to 46.4). Going into their last game of the regular season, at Connecticut, Cincinnati was 8-9 with a "points for/against" net of -22, about where they were through the 13 games of their OOC (-25). The collapse in Storrs (a 96-51 drubbing by the Huskies, hungry to make a statement...) was a step back on an otherwise promising turnabout. The Bearcats were invited to participate in the inaugural play of the CBI post season tournament. They hosted the Bradley Braves but were eliminated 70-67. 13-19 showed progress over their 11-19 tally in Coach Mick Cronan's first season. The Bearcats got more efficient offense from Deonta Vaughn, the Bearcat's representative on the Big East All-Rookie Team from 2006-07 when Cronan gave the ball to JUCO Jamal Warren and allowed him to direct the play. Vaughn could concentrate on what he does best (find the open spot on the floor...and shoot), rather than ball handling.

After 2 up-and-down seasons, Deonta Vaughn has become a bonafide Big East star. His poss% (27.3), shot% (27.6) say star-level role in the offense, while his efficiency (eFG% 55.5 & ORtg 109.5) say his recognition as a preseason consensus First Team All-Big East is earned. Coach Cronan brought in a very well regarded class of front court players (Rashard Bishop, Kenny Belton, Anthony McClain...) and wings (Larry Davis, Alvin Mitchell & Darnell Wilks) for the 2007-08 season. After tinkering with a double digit (10-12) rotation through much of the schedule, Cronan settled into a nucleus of 7-9 players who consistently saw double digit minutes. The largest portion of that time went to vets Gentry(who was DNP for the last 4 games of his career), Hrycaniuk, Sikes, Vaughn, Warren and Williamson. Of that nucleus, only Vaughn will return (health providing...) for his junior year. Teammates Marvin Gentry, Marcus Sikes and Jamal Warren, JUCOs all, will not be back. Nor will transfers John Williamson (Min% 65.7; ORtg 103.5) and Adam Hrycaniuk (Min 60.2; DR% 17.2), whose eligibility ran out. Those players, Warren and Williamson in particlar, will be missed. Warren missed the first six games with an injury (Bearcats went 4-2, dropping decisions to Belmont and Bowling Green during that stretch) but managed, upon his return, to see his minutes rise from 30.2 in the OOC to 32.4 in Big East regular season play, to 37.5 in the post season (a BET game and the CBI first round). Warren, while not consuming a lot of possessions (or shooting much) managed an assist rate of 25.1 (second to Vaughn) and a team best steal rate of 2.9. Vaughn and the freshmen (now sophomores) bring back 39.8% of last season's minutes, with nearly half of that time (42.0%) coming in the person of Deonta Vaughn.

The Bearcats have another brace of well regarded freshmen front court players to integrate with returners McClain, Belton and Bishop, in the form of Yancy Gates and (if he qualifies & rehabs) John Reik. Oh, and another pair of transfers, JUCO Steven Toyloy and (redshirt senior and former MDAA) Mike Williams, will also have to integrate with the existing core. Coach Cronan will have quite a few quality front court players to sort out. The back court is also charged with integrating (in this case a much needed) newcomer, Dion Dixon a 6-3 guard out of Chicago, Ill. Cashmere Wright, a very well regarded point guard who was expected to step into Jamal Warren's shoes, was injured during practice in October, and will redshirt this season. This is bad news as it leaves Coach Cronan with the choice of having Vaughn pick up ball handling responsibiities (a role which diminished his efficiency when he did it his freshman season) or attempting to train Dion Dixon (or Larry Wright...) on the fly. The Bearcats will again be very big, but without someone to feed Vaughn or the front court, probably not especially efficient offensively.

Georgetown -- JT3 Might Need Name Tags at Practice...
The 2007-08 offseason started on a high note for the Hoyas -- Roy Hibbert pulled out of the draft to return for his senior season, and Jeff Green stayed in to pull down a lottery position (#5, by the Boston Celtics). With a stellar back court player, Chris Wright, due to begin his career as Jon Wallace was finishing up (providing for a smooth transition) and having a committee of DaJuan Summer and Patrick Ewing ready to stand in and pick up Jeff Green's minutes/FGAs/assists(!?)/role, it looked as if Georgetown would not take the (big) step back that some predicted for the 2007-08 season. Georgetown finished in a tie for first place in the Big East and secured a #2 seed in the NCAAs this past spring. And while they did not return to the Final Four, they did not fall back into the middle of the conference as some predicted. For the Hoya fans who have come to expect their Georgetown squad would always perform at 2006-07 efficiencies, there had to be some disappointment.

Jeff Green's early exit left a scoring and assist void. Who would step into that void? As the table below suggests, the 2007-08 Hoyas were less efficient (offensively & defensively) than the 2006-07 Hoyas.

Year	ORtg	eFG%	TO%	OR%	FTR%
2006-07	124.8	57.0	22.0	40.2	26.0
2007-08	117.2	56.8	21.2	33.8	22.3

Note that their 2006-07 offensive rating, field goal efficience (eFG% -- due largely to Roy Hibbert's phenominal 67.1% accuracy) and offensive rebounding percentage (OR%) were Top 10 ranked per Pomeroy's Scounting Report. In the 2007-08 season they maintained that status only in eFG% (again, complements of Hibbert who hit at a slightly lower 60.5%). Hibbert, Wallace and Jessie Sapp were called on to cover Green's numbers. Hibbert assumed a "star-level" role with respect to the offense (see Poss% and Shot% below)

By the end of the third paragraph, the Hoya Prospectus' guest blogger posed the question about this season's edition -- "...two points will be the story of this year’s Hoyas: will youth and the lack of experience playing together derail the high level of physical talent and coaching this team so obviously has?" (follow the link to part 1 of the blogger's detailed preview of the Hoya team). While the back court and wing (Wright, Sapp and Freeman) all have (to varying degrees) exposure to the Princeton Offense, the front court, DaJuan Summers aside, have no experience (promise/potential aside...) at all. Physical? Check. Skilled? Check. Hibbert, Ewing and Macklin all required time to acclimate (that is not limited to the learning curve posed by the Princeton Offense, but also to the conditioning needed to play a 30+ game D1 power conference season). Is it reasonable to assume that Sims and Monroe will integrate faster than Hibbert and Ewing (and Macklin)? Macklin's transfer was especially untimely. Vaughn's waiver notwithstanding, the Hoyas enter this season with, next to Cincinnati, the least experienced squad in the conference, as measured by returning minutes. Looking at returning minutes for upper classmen only, the Hoyas are still ranked at #10, a difficult spot from which to maintain a top quartile ranking. Conditioning for Sims, Monroe and even Wright might become the determining factors for how the Hoyas fare in the late season contests.

Providence -- Welcome to the Big East Keno
In the last 5 or so years of his regime, Friar Head Coach Tim Welsh relied increasingly on the spring signing period to assemble his incoming class for the next season. No question the Providence staff had a knack for identifying overlooked talent. But too many of those players brought baggage which distracted the squad and undermined the effort to establish a stable squad. The class that entered as freshmen in the fall of 2005 was different. The four players who formed the nucleus were good, they "starred" or at least contributed solid minutes. And they returned for their sophomore (and later junior) seasons. Jon Kale, Geoff McDermott and Weyimni Efejuku, will move on at the close of the 2008-09 season. Sharaud Curry, the point guard who pulled the class together redshirted last season with a preseason injury, but will most likely return for the 2009-10 season. After showing progress in their sophomore season, the group seemed to (collectively...) stall in their junior year, even though head coach Tim Welsh seemed to have filled out the squad with high quality (if high risk...) players. The step back from the 2007-08 season, which saw the Friars advance to the Big East Tournament and then to the NIT, most likely cost Coach Welsh his job. His successor, Keno Davis, whose career includes a number of years as an assistant under his father Tom Davis and capped with a terrific first season at Drake in the Missouri Valley Conference, will pick up where Coach Welsh left off. The Friar faithful hope he will help this group of upper classmen realize the potential they have shown in their first and second years.

Year over year statistics show the 2007-08 squad stepped back in on both offense and defense. As the table below shows, the 2008 Friars were not as adept as the 2007 edition...but they did not exactly collapse on offense.

						FGM%
Year	ORtg	eFG%	TO%	OR%	FTR%	2Pt.	3Pt.
2006-07	112.2	53.7	23.6	41.3	33.4	53.4	36.3
2007-08	110.4	51.5	20.8	36.1	37.1	48.9	37.6

Note the Offensive rating is the adjusted value. If the adjusted ratings look close enough, you would be correct. The Friars dropped from #58 in 2007 all the way down to #60 in 2008. Of particular interest however, is the field goal percentages and the rebounding rates. Note that 5 point drop in 2FGMs dropped the Friars from #21 in D1 down to #147 in D1. That's quite a hit. Even hitting a higher percentage of 3s did not compensate fully. The 2007 Friats were ranked #107 for 3 point accuracy; the 2008 Friars were ranked #64. The greater 3 point accuracy did not make up for the decline in 2 point accuracy (see the eFG% for both years -- the Friars declined from #39 to #106, year-over-year, in that category...). The Friars dropped from #5(!) to #62 in their offensive rebounding. They were shooting more poorly while also losing out on second chance opportunities. On defense the decline was a bit more pronounced as the table below suggests...

Year	DRtg	eFG%	TO%	OR%	FTR%
2006-07	96.9	49.2	20.0	33.2	33.4
2007-08	97.1	50.3	21.9	36.1	37.1

Providence's opponents shot better and rebounded their misses better. As John Gasaway opined in Basketball Prospectus, the Friars really missed Herbert Hill, their 6-11 #5 who hit 64.2% of his 2 point FGAs, and was ranked #175 in defensive rebounding percentage (19.3). Those very subtle differences (and the inability of Randall Hanke, Jon Kale and Ray Hall to make up that difference) dropped the Friars from a 18-13 (8-8) to 15-16 (6-12) in 2007-08.

The Friar's better 3 point shooting from 2008 is something Keno Davis can work with. His 2007-08 Drake team was ranked #10 nationally (D1) in the ratio of 3-to-2 point FGAs. Davis' system was more deliberate than the offense employed by Welsh, a difference of about 4 - 6 possessions per game. Drake however, ended the 2008 season as fifth most efficient offense in D1 (per Ken Pomeroy's Drake Scouting Report, relying on many of the same elements as Tim Welsh's offense -- high eFG% (effective field goal shooting), coupled with low turnover rates (TO%) and high offensive rebounding percentages (OR%). Historically the Friar's achilles heel has been defense that borders on indifference. While not Davis' strong point, his 2008 Drake squad did do a better job than any of the last 4 Friar squads.

Rutgers -- If You Build It, Will They Come?...
Year 2 of the Fred Hill Era launched more smoothly than Year 1 as the Scarlet Knights more than reversed a Year 1 3-5 start to a 6-2 start. Unfortunately this did not carry into their Big East regular season where the Knights were unable to improve their 3 win total from 2006-07. Given the two extra games in league play this past season, RU's winning percentage in conference play declined from .187, to .167. The list of opponents and margin of victories may have been a bit more prestigious in year 2 (Villanova, Pittsburgh), but that did not translate into a larger number of conference wins, or a better winning percentage.

Offense was the weakness for Rutgers. The numbers (compliments of Ken Pomeroy's Rutger Scouting Report) tell the tale...

						FGM%
Year	ORtg	eFG%	TO%	OR%	FTR%	2Pt.	3Pt.
Offense	95.2	44.7	22.1	31.6	22.5	43.4	31.8
Defense	95.4	47.7	18.6	33.8	27.4	44.6	37.1

Note that Rutgers ranked #225 (out of 341) or lower in every one of Oliver's four factors, eFG%, TO%, OR% and FTR%. The Knights were ranked #300 or lower in eFG% (#323) and 2 point FGM (43.4, #315). They have to get better, and I don't say that as a plea to the team, I state it as a matter of fact. The Knights of the Raritan were ranked #253 for adjusted offense last season (see Pomeroy link above). Among teams in the six power conferences, only Oregon State was ranked lower (at #264). The next lowest power conference program was St. John's at #215...and the next lowest was Iowa at #204. Looking for Inman, Griffin or Farmer to catch fire offensively is, given the lack of changing/expanding roles on the team over the past 2 seasons, unlikely. Mike Rosario, an older (and wiser?) Hamady N'Diaye (or Greg Enchinque?) and Corey Chandler are more likely to grow into the starter/star-level offensive role required for Rutgers' offense to function more efficiently.

Most Likely to Move Up...
Georgetown will move up if Chris Wright can pick up the offensive principles and effectively direct the rest of the team. If Summers can continue to develop and pick up the


Most Likely to Move Down...
I put Rutgers in the third quartile because the Scarlet Knights' incoming class is tailored to address RU's needs on the court (more/better wings and scoring) and is the best regarded of the five teams who are "contending" for the four spots in the conference basement. Rutgers is returning about 86.1% of their minutes from last season (maybe not a good thing considering their lack of success?), ranking them #2 in returned minutes among confernce teams. The returning minutes ought to provide a structure into which the new players can fit. But consider that only 63.8% of those minutes are upper classmen (ranked #9), suggesting that there are roles available to fill (and players capable of developing?). Quite a bit, too much perhaps, is expected of that group. Critical injuries, prolonged (or unsuccessful...) suspensions may disrupt the orientation and development of the freshmen. Unrealized expectations might trigger a crisis of confidence. This might be the most talented collection of players Rutgers has seen in this decade. The burden is now on the staff to teach them, set the example and facilitate their development. Or maybe this team is just not as good as advertised.