Roster Moves -- Early Draftees and Departures

No sooner had the Tar Heels won the National Championship than ESPN was putting together the Top 25 for next season. Rediculously early of course, given we did not even know who among the underclassmen would declare for the NBA draft. The deadline passed earlier this week (April 26th), so while who among the unsigned will stay in the draft we do have an idea of those who will not be back. Combined with a list of early (outbound) transfers, the situation for a number of Big East teams is a good deal clearer than it was even 3 weeks ago. Graduation and exhaustion of eligibility are predicatable. They can be planned for; a roster and "recruitment stream" can be developed based on those predicatble roster events. Early departures, irrespective of the rational (the NBA draft, transfer or transgressions -- academic or civil), can play havoc on roster planning and development. A quick look at the Big East's contribution to the Early Entry List...

School	Player	Yr	Status/Comment
Connecticut	Atar Majok	RS/FR	No agent
	Hasheem Thabeet	JR	Definitely gone
DePaul	Mac Koshwal	SO	No agent
	Dar Tucker	SO	Withdrew from DePaul
Georgetown	DaJuan Summers	JR	Hired agent
Louisville	Earl Clark	JR	Will hire agent
Notre Dame	Luke Harangody	JR	No agent
Pittsburgh	DeJuan Blair	SO	Hired agent
Syracuse	Eric Devendorf	RS/SR	No agent
	Jonny Flynn	SO	Will hire agent
	Paul Harris	JR	No agent
Villanova	Scottie Reynolds	JR	No agent

If most fans took early entry this post season for Clark (Louisville), Thabeet (UConn) and Flynn (Syracuse) as a foregone conclusion, Harangody (Notre Dame), Reynolds (Villanova) and Summers (Georgetown) were largely unanticipated. Yellow highlighted players have not hired agents to this point, and may well return after taking a few tryouts and getting feedback from scouts.

Transfers -- Outbound...
With the passing of the third week of the post season, outbound transfer notes have slowed to a trickle. Most begin as rumors in the last month or so of the season (or in the last weeks of the fall semester...) that are confirmed in the first or second week of the off season. Academic dismissals are still ahead, and disciplinary dismissals can occur at any time (never a "convenient" time), but the transfer list so far is illuminating if underwhelming...

School	Player	Pos	Yr.	Comment
Georgetown	Omar Wattad	G	So
Providence	Alex Kellogg	SF	So
Rutgers	Christian Morris	5	Fr	Mid-year
Seton Hall	Mike Davis	5	So
South Florida	Mike Mercer	1-2	Jr	Mid-year
St. John's	TyShwan Edmondson	1-2	Fr
Villanova	Casiem Drummond	5	So	Mid-year

Note that Drummond (Villanova-to-Marist), Mercer (South Florida) and Morris (Rutgers) all exited as the fall semester 2008 was concluding. The effect of those transfers was absorbed during the second half of the season. Of those who announced their departures after the season, Edmondson may have been the biggest contributor during the season. For a few teams the cumulative impact of departures may have an effect on performance next season. An alphabetically correct look at a few of those teams...

DePaul
Tucker had several eye-catching performances early in the season (the Creighton loss, for example), but by the end of February his moves were largely known and defensed pretty consistently. His shooting accuracy dropped even as his offensive rating (per Ken Pomeroy's DePaul Scout Page) declined from a decent (for taking 33% of the Demon's shots) 107.2 down to 95.0 (while still taking 1 in 3 shots). Tucker's possessive tendencies hurt the Demon's offense; his departure may well prove to be addition by subtraction, but losing Koshwal (should he stay in the draft), one of the conference's best rebounders at both ends of the court (and the second more efficient offensive player on the Demon roster last season) will hurt. The Demons will bring in a few good players next season, but Coach Wainwright will spend part of the spring signing period interviewing replacements for his entire staff. Under pressure from DePaul's AD to shake things up, Wainwright dismissed his entire staff. A Chicago-based recruiting hot shot would be a priority, and probably the only change that will save his job. Wainwright will start next season as the Coach Sitting in the Hottest Seat.

Georgetown
While many thought the Hoyas would have difficulty matching their 2007-08 numbers, few thought they would fall as far as they did this past season. Georgetown began the 2008-09 season with a 10-1 run, only to stumble to a 12th place finish in the Big East with a 7-11 conference record. They Hoyas went 6-14 over the last 3 months of the season amid rumors of dissention within the team and conflicts between several team members. Summer's exit to the draft after an unimpressive season confirmed there were problems. Omar Wattad, the 7th John Thompson recruit to transfer out in the last 4 years, will be replaced no doubt by a recruit more talented than he, but the cumulative effect of those transfers will be, going forward, a lack of senior and upperclassmen leadership on the squad. If the Villanova team demonstarated anything, it may be that the leaders were not the most productive members of the squad, but their contributions, both tangible and intangible, were important to the team's success.

Syracuse
The post season roster moves have to be counted as the most bizaare of the conference's teams. In the Orange's last week of the season, Jonny Flynn announced he would be back next season. Less than two weeks later he reversed himself and announced that not only would he test the draft, but he would hire an agent and absolutely leave. According to both Paul Harris and Eric Devendorf, each was "taken by surprise" when the team announced they were leaving for the draft. Neither apparently, had notified the team they intended to test the waters. Those two have not hired agents, so there is a theoretical possibility they may return. According to a post season interview however, it appears the Head Coach has already moved on.

Villanova
Losing Casiem Drummond was less painful and originally anticipated. Going into next season without Scottie Reynolds (should he decide to stay in the draft) however will deny the Wildcats their best scorer since Randy Foye. A last season may be beneficial to both Reynolds and Villanova. I am one fan who would look forward to seeing him play for the Wildcats one more season.

Preview Syracuse -- The First Game

The Wildcats and the Orange meet at the Wachovia Center for the first game of their 2009 home-n-away series for the Big East Conference. The series, begun in 1946 with a loss at Syracuse included 3 more rematches (all losses for the Wildcats) before Villanova joined the Big East Conference in 1981. Villanova and Syracuse played 4 times before Nova joined the Big East, with Syracuse taking all 4 decisions. Syracuse leads the series 34-28...

Common Opponents, Good Wins, Bad Losses...
The 'Cats and Orange have played 5 common opponents, all fellow member of the Big East, so far this season:

	Nova		Cuse
Opponent	W/L	Diff.	W/L	Diff.
Seton Hall	W (A)	OT +4	W (H)	+24
South Florida	W (A)	+9	W (A)	+5
Louisville	L (H)	-1	L (H)	-10
Pittsburgh	W (H)	+10	L (A)	-12
Providence	W (A)	+3	L (A)	-6

Counted among the Orange's good wins, Kansas (Big 12, 18-4, RPI #16), a road game against Memphis (CUSA, 19-3, RPI #11), Florida (SEC, 19-4, RPI #27), Cornell (Ivy, 12-6, RPI #94), and two notched during conference play, versus West Virginia (BE, 15-7, 4-5, RPI #19) and Notre Dame (BE, 11-9, 3-7, RPI #79). The Orange have no bad losses, the worst for their resume was their first, a 2 point home loss to Cleveland St (Horizon, 12-8, RPI #95), on a buzzer beater...

Lineups, Rotations...
...Coach Boeheim has a deeper bench to look to this season, and he has used it this season, setting a rotation as deep as 13 for several OOC games. For Big East play he has settled on 7 - 10 players, allocating 10 or more minutes to 7 (give or take 1) of them. Look for him to start sophomore Jonny Flynn (6-0, 186lbs) at the #1 with junior Eric Devendorf (6-4, 178lbs) alongside as the #2. Flynn shared ROY honors last season with South Florida's Dominique Jones, was tabbed for All Big East 1st Team preseason honors, and appears to be ontrack to land on the post season team as well. Devendorf was a red shirt last season, but has worked himself back into form. He started at the #2 through much of Syracuse's OOC, but was suspended for a non-team related infraction, served a short suspension, and came in, off the bench, after his return. Coach Boeheim inserted Devendorf into the starting line up for the West Virginia game earlier this week. When he is looking for another wing, Coach Boeheim will turn to junior Andy Rautins (6-5, 193lbs), another casualty from last season. Rautins was injured again earlier this season, but appears to have been cleared to play for the West Virginia game. Devendorf and Rautins, along with Flynn, provide virtually all of Syracuse's 3 point shooting, a weapon in the Orange's offensive arsenal missing last season. If Wildcat fans see senior Jake Presutti (6-3, 190lbs) or freshman Kevin Drew (6-2, 177lbs), they can take it as a sign that the Orange have the game well under control (and can most likely exit the Wach to beat the traffic). Before Presutti or Drew enter the game however, Coach Boeheim will most likely shift junior Paul Harris to the wing and insert another front court player.

The Orange have taken a twin tower approach to their paint players, starting for the most part, junior Arinze Onuaku (6-9, 258lbs) with sophomore Rick Jackson (6-9, 235lbs) and junior Paul Harris (6-5, 228lbs) alongside. Jackson will play the #4 as Harris, a 'tweener with the height of a #3 height and the skill set of a #4 looks to slash and score. Onuaku, like Rautins, has been working through an injury; while he most likely will start, he may not play his usual 70% or more of the game. Expect to see senior transfer Kristof Ongenaet (6-8, 215lbs), then freshman Kris Joseph (6-7, 220lbs) during the game (unless the score stays very close throughout & Rautins and Onuaku are 100%, then Joseph may not be used).

Villanova will start Scottie Reynolds, Reggie Redding, Dante Cunningham and Dwayne Anderson. Coach Wright has started senior Shane Clark in Nova's last two games (Cincinnati & Providence). In any case, expect to see the Coreys (Fisher & Stokes) draw double digit minutes, with Antonio Pena coming in during the 1st half. Scottie Reynolds broke out of a minor scoring slump against Providence, scoring a team-high 31 points in 35 minutes of play. Dwayne Anderson scored a season-high 19 points, leading the four teammates (Cunningham, Redding & Fisher) who made up the "second wave" of scoring. Pena's minutes were limited in the Providence game, though his size and strength may be needed against Syracuse.

By the Numbers, Offense & Defense...
Like Providence, Syracuse likes to play for a lot of possessions. They average about 71.5 (adjusted -- per Ken Pomeroy's Team Page) possessions per 40 minutes, 2nd in the Big East only to the Friars. They run a very efficient, elite offense (113.6, adjusted, ranked #27), and a better than average defense (93.4, adjusted, ranked #53), making the Orange a very even matchup for the Wildcats. Nova's ORtg is

When Syracuse has the ball...
				FTA
	eFG%	TO%	OR%	FGA
Orange O	55.2	21.0	35.5	43.3
Wildcat D	44.8	22.2	30.5	37.0

Syracuse, ranked #9 overall in eFG%, will severely test Villanova's shot defense, the weak link in the defense of previous seassons. The Orange will go inside early and often, taking 70% of their FGAs from inside the arc. They convert a whopping 55.9% of those FGAs by the way. Leading the charge to the cup will be pg Jonny Flynn (who takes a lot of shots inside and outside), Paul Harris, Arinze Onuaku (who converts a crushing 70.6% of his FGAs) and Rick Jackson (who is only "slightly less" efficient at 60.2% of his FGAs). Nova defends the 2 very well, yielding a conversion rate of 42.5%, good for a #25 rank. Look for a good deal of competition under the Orange basket. Cuse's weakness is steals, which suggest some defenses may have success contesting the entry pass. The Orange are vulnerable/exploited enough to be ranked in the last quartile of D1 (#291) in thefts allowed. The rate, 11.4% of their possessions are lost through theft, that it drives up their turnover rate (to 21.0%, ranked at #199). Nova's defensive theft rate, about 11.3%, is good enough to suggest the 'Cats may be able to exploit this weakness. Their second weakness is free throw shooting. The Orange hit at a 64.1% rate, good for a #299 ranking (out of 341 D1 schools). The "Four Factors" look at Villanova's offense versus Syracuse's defense:

When Villanova has the ball...
				FTA
	eFG%	TO%	OR%	FGA
Wildcat O	50.7	18.8	36.7	43.5
Orange D	45.8	17.4	34.3	22.5

Note the matchups on shooting (eFG%) -- while not quite a mirror image of Cuse offense/Nova defense, it is very close. Nova is a bit less efficient at converting FGAs to points, while the Cuse is a bit less efficient at defensing the FGA. The 'Cats should get the most out of their possessions, as they don't turn it over much (18.8, ranked #63) and the Orange oblige their opponents by not forcing many turnovers (17.4, ranked #322). Sloppy ball handling will be a bad sign for the 'Cats. Nova needs to get to the line, especially in a closely contested game, as they look for nearly 25% of their points from converted FTAs. By habit though, the Orange have not been cooperative with their opponents, putting them on the line a very paltry 22.5% rate of FGAs. That is a good thing (for them), as Coach Boeheim continues to run one of the shorter rotations in the Big East.

Want to Beat the Orange? Then...
Shooting and shot defense continue to be the leading indicators for winning or losing with both teams.
1. Defend their shots -- When Syracuse converts (eFG%) at less than 50.0, they have gone 3-2, but in all of those wins (West Virginia, Canisius & South Florida...), their opponent converted at rates of 41.0 or less. Which brings us to the second key...
2. Hit your shots -- When their opponents have converted at rates of (eFG%) 57.1 or better, the Orange are 3-3. In all 3 of those wins the Cuse converted at a rate better than the opponent, and better than 57.0. When Villanova converts at a (eFG%) rate of 50.7 or better they are 9-1.
3. Take Your Time -- Villanova, despite what game announcers say, does not appear to function well in higher possession games. Their defense in particular seems to suffer. Keep the pace under 70 and Nova will most likely win, as they have gone 15-1 in those lower paced games. By contrast, Syracuse does not seem comfortable in more deliberate games. In games where the pace has been 67 or lower (about Nova's speed), the Orange have gone 3-4.
4. Contest for Offensive Rebounds -- Syracuse has a pretty strong marker for opponent's offensive rebounding. In games where their opponent has been able to grab 36.8% or more of their missed shots, Syracuse has gone 3-5. Nova's offensive rebounding rate is 36.7%, right at the threshold. Nova has grabbed 36.7% or more of their misses in 9 games this season. When they grabbed 34.7% or less, they went 6-4.
5. Get to the Line -- Villanova has been held to an FTA/FGA rate of 22.5 or lower only once all season (it was Monmouth, and the 'Cats won anyway). That is Syracuse's number. The Oranges have never allowed an opponent to get to the line 43.5% or higher this season. When the opponent does get to the line 28.3% or higher, the Orange have gone 3-3.

Finally...
...Both teams are coming off of strong wins. The Orange thumped the Mountaineers soundly at the Dome (after dropping a decision in Friartown), while the 'Cats are riding a 4 game winning streak that goes back to their 10 point victory over Pittsburgh. Syracuse has gone 1-3 in their last 4 games, and they know they face Connecticut (away), followed by Georgetown and Villanova (again) in a mini-home stand before heading down to NYC to face St. John's. This is a game they would like very much to take.

Pomeroy's calculations suggest the game will be played for 72 possessions (comfortable enough for the Orange), with the 'Cats taking a 7 point decision. If both team's efficiencies hold, the Wildcats should win if they score 80 or more points (or limit the Orange to fewer than 70 points).

2007-08 Inside According to Pomeroy & Pelton

Yesterday I listed the Big East's "most outside" players based on 2007-08 statistics (all games). I wanted to also look at the players from last season who showed the strongest tendency to play on the inside. Again I used the 2007-08 statistics for all games, and filtered for those players who logged at least 35% of the playing time at their position. I show the calculated results for both Ken Pomeroy and Kevin Pelton, but again I order the list according to Pelton's results.

Name	College	Min	Min%	FGA	3FGA	FTA	KPom	Pelton
Kentrell Gransberry	USF	953	76.5	354	1	220	61.9	23.0
Jeff Adrien	UConn	1115	83.8	345	4	229	65.2	20.2
Luke Harangody	NDU	959	72.4	518	9	198	36.5	19.7
Derrick Caracter	Ville	593	52.7	201	1	108	53.2	18.0
Hasheem Thabeet	UConn	1025	77.1	189	0	169	89.4	16.5
David Padgett	Ville	611	54.3	168	0	100	59.5	16.4
Paul Harris	Cuse	1264	90.0	343	34	237	59.2	16.1
Roy Hibbert	GTU	894	65.3	294	3	144	48.0	15.8
DeJuan Blair	Pitt	963	64.6	313	0	149	47.6	15.5
Arinze Onuaku	Cuse	1070	76.2	288	0	164	56.9	15.3
John Williamson	Nati	848	65.7	294	13	132	40.5	14.0
Joe Mazzulla	WVU	684	45.6	144	20	114	65.3	13.7
Joe Alexander	WVU	1137	75.8	474	41	194	32.3	13.5
Antonio Pena	Nova	678	48.4	183	6	96	49.2	13.3
Eugene Harvey	Hall	1176	90.1	331	47	192	43.8	12.3
John Garcia	Hall	642	49.2	144	0	74	51.4	11.5
Mac Koshwal	DPU	940	78.0	260	6	112	40.8	11.3
Dwight Burke	MU	412	42.2	53	0	46	86.8	11.2
Dante Cunningham	Nova	1050	75.0	261	0	116	44.4	11.0
Justin Burrell	Johns	946	78.5	294	1	98	33.0	10.3

As before, players higlighted in yellow were seniors or out of eligibility at the end of the 2007-08 season. Green highlighted players have transferred while blue highlighted players went to the NBA draft. While the list suggests that 14 of the 20 will return to Big East play this season, the paint players are more than "a bit" more stable than the "outsiders". After all, Caracter's departure was not entirely voluntary, and Alexander was a junior last season, not a freshman. Only Justin Burrell, Mac Koshwal and Antonio Pena are freshmen. And Pena is a redshirt freshman. As I reviewed the list I realized virtually all of the players were the same centers and power forwards I have written and talked about over the past several seasons (or in the case of Pena and Burrell, the past seasson and preseason). Except for Nunu Harvey and Joe Mazzulla, who as guards seem very out of place. Both took about 14% of their FGAs from the 3 point line, not quite typical for backcourt players, but Harvey, with an FTARate of 58.0 and Mazzulla, with an FTARate of 79.2(!) showed the front court player knack for converting field goal attempts into free throw opportunities. Both have FTARates more typical of aggressive front court players, a characteristic reminiscient of Kyle Lowry (Villanova) and Carl Krauser (Pittsburgh).

Distinction Without Difference?
When identifying outside players Pomeroy and Pelton seemed to arrive at about the same place by slightlymagnitude of the differences. Pelton's 3^rd ranked player (Notre Dame's Luke Harangody) is Pomeroy's 22^nd ranked player. Pelton's 8^th (Georgetown's Roy Hibbert) and 9^th (Pittsburgh's DeJuan Blair) ranked players are Pomeroy's 16^th and 17^th ranked players respectively. And Pomeroy's 3^rd (Marquette's Dwight Burke) is Pelton's 18^th. Oh, and Pomeroy's 1^st ranked player, Byron Joynes of Rutgers, is not listed in this post, because he is ranked 26^th by Pelton's method.

Notes & Observations...
1. For the second year running Syracuse's Paul Harris is on both Pelton's (#7) and Pomeroy's (#8) list. Like Harvey and Mazzulla he shows a better aptitude for inside rather than outside play, though technically he is described as a wing/back court player. Harris took about 9% of his FGAs as 3s.
2. With 20 players listed, only 2 schools, Rutgers and Providence, are absent players. The outside top 20 lacked only USF on the list.
3. Villanova has two players, Dante Cunningham and Antonio Pena on this list, another indication that the Wildcats offense has developed an inside presence. Drummond, with only 19 or so Min% of playing time at the center position, did not make field for consideration.