Roster Moves -- Early Draftees and Departures

No sooner had the Tar Heels won the National Championship than ESPN was putting together the Top 25 for next season. Rediculously early of course, given we did not even know who among the underclassmen would declare for the NBA draft. The deadline passed earlier this week (April 26th), so while who among the unsigned will stay in the draft we do have an idea of those who will not be back. Combined with a list of early (outbound) transfers, the situation for a number of Big East teams is a good deal clearer than it was even 3 weeks ago. Graduation and exhaustion of eligibility are predicatable. They can be planned for; a roster and "recruitment stream" can be developed based on those predicatble roster events. Early departures, irrespective of the rational (the NBA draft, transfer or transgressions -- academic or civil), can play havoc on roster planning and development. A quick look at the Big East's contribution to the Early Entry List...

School	Player	Yr	Status/Comment
Connecticut	Atar Majok	RS/FR	No agent
	Hasheem Thabeet	JR	Definitely gone
DePaul	Mac Koshwal	SO	No agent
	Dar Tucker	SO	Withdrew from DePaul
Georgetown	DaJuan Summers	JR	Hired agent
Louisville	Earl Clark	JR	Will hire agent
Notre Dame	Luke Harangody	JR	No agent
Pittsburgh	DeJuan Blair	SO	Hired agent
Syracuse	Eric Devendorf	RS/SR	No agent
	Jonny Flynn	SO	Will hire agent
	Paul Harris	JR	No agent
Villanova	Scottie Reynolds	JR	No agent

If most fans took early entry this post season for Clark (Louisville), Thabeet (UConn) and Flynn (Syracuse) as a foregone conclusion, Harangody (Notre Dame), Reynolds (Villanova) and Summers (Georgetown) were largely unanticipated. Yellow highlighted players have not hired agents to this point, and may well return after taking a few tryouts and getting feedback from scouts.

Transfers -- Outbound...
With the passing of the third week of the post season, outbound transfer notes have slowed to a trickle. Most begin as rumors in the last month or so of the season (or in the last weeks of the fall semester...) that are confirmed in the first or second week of the off season. Academic dismissals are still ahead, and disciplinary dismissals can occur at any time (never a "convenient" time), but the transfer list so far is illuminating if underwhelming...

School	Player	Pos	Yr.	Comment
Georgetown	Omar Wattad	G	So
Providence	Alex Kellogg	SF	So
Rutgers	Christian Morris	5	Fr	Mid-year
Seton Hall	Mike Davis	5	So
South Florida	Mike Mercer	1-2	Jr	Mid-year
St. John's	TyShwan Edmondson	1-2	Fr
Villanova	Casiem Drummond	5	So	Mid-year

Note that Drummond (Villanova-to-Marist), Mercer (South Florida) and Morris (Rutgers) all exited as the fall semester 2008 was concluding. The effect of those transfers was absorbed during the second half of the season. Of those who announced their departures after the season, Edmondson may have been the biggest contributor during the season. For a few teams the cumulative impact of departures may have an effect on performance next season. An alphabetically correct look at a few of those teams...

DePaul
Tucker had several eye-catching performances early in the season (the Creighton loss, for example), but by the end of February his moves were largely known and defensed pretty consistently. His shooting accuracy dropped even as his offensive rating (per Ken Pomeroy's DePaul Scout Page) declined from a decent (for taking 33% of the Demon's shots) 107.2 down to 95.0 (while still taking 1 in 3 shots). Tucker's possessive tendencies hurt the Demon's offense; his departure may well prove to be addition by subtraction, but losing Koshwal (should he stay in the draft), one of the conference's best rebounders at both ends of the court (and the second more efficient offensive player on the Demon roster last season) will hurt. The Demons will bring in a few good players next season, but Coach Wainwright will spend part of the spring signing period interviewing replacements for his entire staff. Under pressure from DePaul's AD to shake things up, Wainwright dismissed his entire staff. A Chicago-based recruiting hot shot would be a priority, and probably the only change that will save his job. Wainwright will start next season as the Coach Sitting in the Hottest Seat.

Georgetown
While many thought the Hoyas would have difficulty matching their 2007-08 numbers, few thought they would fall as far as they did this past season. Georgetown began the 2008-09 season with a 10-1 run, only to stumble to a 12th place finish in the Big East with a 7-11 conference record. They Hoyas went 6-14 over the last 3 months of the season amid rumors of dissention within the team and conflicts between several team members. Summer's exit to the draft after an unimpressive season confirmed there were problems. Omar Wattad, the 7th John Thompson recruit to transfer out in the last 4 years, will be replaced no doubt by a recruit more talented than he, but the cumulative effect of those transfers will be, going forward, a lack of senior and upperclassmen leadership on the squad. If the Villanova team demonstarated anything, it may be that the leaders were not the most productive members of the squad, but their contributions, both tangible and intangible, were important to the team's success.

Syracuse
The post season roster moves have to be counted as the most bizaare of the conference's teams. In the Orange's last week of the season, Jonny Flynn announced he would be back next season. Less than two weeks later he reversed himself and announced that not only would he test the draft, but he would hire an agent and absolutely leave. According to both Paul Harris and Eric Devendorf, each was "taken by surprise" when the team announced they were leaving for the draft. Neither apparently, had notified the team they intended to test the waters. Those two have not hired agents, so there is a theoretical possibility they may return. According to a post season interview however, it appears the Head Coach has already moved on.

Villanova
Losing Casiem Drummond was less painful and originally anticipated. Going into next season without Scottie Reynolds (should he decide to stay in the draft) however will deny the Wildcats their best scorer since Randy Foye. A last season may be beneficial to both Reynolds and Villanova. I am one fan who would look forward to seeing him play for the Wildcats one more season.

Syracuse Post Game -- Consistency

For the second consecutive game the Wildcats went off script on their possessions. And for the second time they won, only this time the Nova Nation did not have to hold it's collective breath as the clock wound down. The official website has the AP wire story & the official box score. The breakdown by halves...

Opponent	Syracuse
	1st	2nd	Game
Pace	42.8	39.8	82.6
	Offense				Defense
	1st	2nd	Game		1st	2nd	Game
Rating	123.9	123.1	123.5		88.9	118.1	102.9
eFG%	58.3	61.7	59.8		43.8	47.4	46.0
TORate	11.7	30.1	20.6		30.4	7.5	19.4
OR%	26.3	61.1	43.2		33.3	35.7	34.8
FTA/FGA	38.9	60.0	48.5		104.2	43.6	66.7
FTM/FGA	30.6	40.0	34.8		70.8	25.6	42.9
ARate	78.9	47.1	63.9		66.7	66.7	66.7
Blk%	2.8	0.0	1.5		4.2	7.7	6.3
Stl%	4.7	12.6	8.5		18.7	2.5	10.8
PPWS	1.24	1.27	1.26		1.06	1.00	1.02

Half Time Adjustments...
The first half was eerily similar to last Wednesday's Providence game -- efficient offense and tight defense. The Wildcat's offensive efficiency, at 123.9, was well above their adjusted efficiency (111.7), even as their defensive efficiency, 88.9, was just above their season adjusted efficiency (87.8). The first half was disjointed, a bit chaotic, largely because of the whistles. Nearly 1 in 3 possessions was interrupted with a change of possession due to a called foul. Possibly the undermanned crew felt a need to maintain tighter control over play. Rick Jackson and Andy Rautins between them, took half of Syracuse's FGAs, and a third more than Flynn and Harris combined. That was a bad sign for the Orange. For Villanova meanwhile, FGAs were nearly evenly divided between Anderson, Cunningham (of course) and the Coreys, Fisher & Stokes. A good sign for the 'Cats, and one reason they went to the half up by 15. I have shaded in green the elements that were at or ahead of the season numbers, and in red those that fell short.

While the Orange were able to cut the Wildcat's lead to to 10 or 11 six times during the second half, they were never able to get it into single digits. Every time they made a push, the 'Cats answered with a push back. Five times the 'Cats bumped the lead to 19-21, but the Orange would not fold. The preview posted late last week noted that shooting efficiency (eFG%), pace, getting to the line and offensive rebounding rates (OR%) might serve as keys to a win (or loss). The results were admittedly mixed, but suggest the 'Cats have work to do on the defensive side of the ball, especially when they pile up big leads before the half.

Notes
1. Dante Cunningham matched his season & career high for points scored (31), and came within a rebound of logging another double-double. On a day when Onuaku was limping and Jackson was throttled with fouls, Dante stepped up as the first option on offense. He hit 12 of 15 and added another 7 at the free throw line. Cunningham's FTRate was 80.0, suggesting he got to the line 4 times for every 5 FGAs. No doubt taking some credit for sitting Jackson and sub forward Kristof Ongenaet down.
2. Shane Clark recorded his first double-double of the season as he scored a season high 14 points to go with his 10 (7-3-10) rebounds. Clark's board contribution included those 7 offensive rebounds, an unusual achievement. Clark added 3 assists and 2 blocked shots to the cause.
3. Corey Fisher scored 14 points in 23 minutes of play. He continues his run of tremendous efforts with 5-9 shooting, producing an eFG% of 55.6 & a PPWS of 1.23. Heady play has become the hallmark of his his recent surge. At the 2:55 mark of the 1st half with Villanova leading 43-29, Fisher avoided a mid-court corner trap, crossed the line and passed to Corey Stokes at Nova's 3 point line. As Fisher ran left, Cunningham moved out to the key to set a pick for Stokes, who instead took the ball to his right and headed to the lane and the cup (who said the guy had no handle?). Stokes' missed shot, was rebounded by Onuaku who (having the good sense to stay between Cunningham and the basket) tossed the pass to Flynn on the left side. In stepped Fisher to take that pass and drop the layup through for 2 points & push the lead back out to 16. About 17 seconds later Harris penetrated the Orange lane and kicked the ball back out to Ongenaet waiting at the top of the key to take the three. Again Fisher stepped in to tip the pass, and the spread out on the floor to try and take the now loose ball. He could not gain possession, but did tip it again over to another 'Cat, also laid out on the floor scrambling for the ball. The 'Cats are up by 16 mind you. Villanova basketball. Oh, and he grabbed 4 rebounds and dished 6 assists.
4. Cunningham, Reynolds and Fisher served as the first 3 options on offense, with Shane Clark and Corey Stokes taking an even percentage of the shots (20%). Anderson and Redding stepped back this game, though between them they were 6-11 from the field. The interchangability on offense, with each of those six taking alternate "first wave" roles over the past 4 games has to be encouraging to the staff; and a nightmare for game opponent's game preparation.
5. The minutes were distributed in a surprisingly even fashion, with Stokes and Clark drawing 27 minutes apiece, Redding, Reynolds and Anderson drawing 26 minutes apiece. Fisher logged 23 minutes, and Dante Cunningham took 37 (Pena received a 9 minute run). Though the camera did not pan the bench often, when it did it appeared that all members of the squad were focused on the game. I did not notice any sulking.

Ref Notes
The crew, Jim Haney, Curtis Shaw and Mike Stephens, was a bit undermanned for much of the game as Jim Haney came up gimpy 5 minutes into the 1st half. As it was they had their hands full, whistling the Wildcats for an astonishing 29 fouls, 15 in the first half alone. Were Shaw and Stephens compensating for the absence of Jim Haney? It is hard to know, except that this was by far the most fouls awarded to the Orange this season. If the Providence game had 50 called fouls, this one went 3 better, setting a new season high (one "standard" I hope the 'Cats don't try to exceed). The zebras were not kind to the Wildcats at all, giving the Orange 42 FTAs, by far the most for an opponent all season (and remember the 'Cats have already played Connecticut), and more than Nova has gotten. Indeed the FTAs were well outside the standard deviation for FTAs to an opponents at a home game. No one can suggest the Wildcats had home cooking today. The only other notable was the technical called on Syracuse point guard Jonny Flynn, who was no doubt frustrated by the turn of events.

Other recaps/analysis
Nova News has posted a recap piece. (Good work Tim).
VUhoops.com posted a recap.
Mike Sheridan's post game notes.
Axeman's recap/commentary -- a Syracuse-centric look at the game. A number of good things to say about Villanova.

Preview Syracuse -- The First Game

The Wildcats and the Orange meet at the Wachovia Center for the first game of their 2009 home-n-away series for the Big East Conference. The series, begun in 1946 with a loss at Syracuse included 3 more rematches (all losses for the Wildcats) before Villanova joined the Big East Conference in 1981. Villanova and Syracuse played 4 times before Nova joined the Big East, with Syracuse taking all 4 decisions. Syracuse leads the series 34-28...

Common Opponents, Good Wins, Bad Losses...
The 'Cats and Orange have played 5 common opponents, all fellow member of the Big East, so far this season:

	Nova		Cuse
Opponent	W/L	Diff.	W/L	Diff.
Seton Hall	W (A)	OT +4	W (H)	+24
South Florida	W (A)	+9	W (A)	+5
Louisville	L (H)	-1	L (H)	-10
Pittsburgh	W (H)	+10	L (A)	-12
Providence	W (A)	+3	L (A)	-6

Counted among the Orange's good wins, Kansas (Big 12, 18-4, RPI #16), a road game against Memphis (CUSA, 19-3, RPI #11), Florida (SEC, 19-4, RPI #27), Cornell (Ivy, 12-6, RPI #94), and two notched during conference play, versus West Virginia (BE, 15-7, 4-5, RPI #19) and Notre Dame (BE, 11-9, 3-7, RPI #79). The Orange have no bad losses, the worst for their resume was their first, a 2 point home loss to Cleveland St (Horizon, 12-8, RPI #95), on a buzzer beater...

Lineups, Rotations...
...Coach Boeheim has a deeper bench to look to this season, and he has used it this season, setting a rotation as deep as 13 for several OOC games. For Big East play he has settled on 7 - 10 players, allocating 10 or more minutes to 7 (give or take 1) of them. Look for him to start sophomore Jonny Flynn (6-0, 186lbs) at the #1 with junior Eric Devendorf (6-4, 178lbs) alongside as the #2. Flynn shared ROY honors last season with South Florida's Dominique Jones, was tabbed for All Big East 1st Team preseason honors, and appears to be ontrack to land on the post season team as well. Devendorf was a red shirt last season, but has worked himself back into form. He started at the #2 through much of Syracuse's OOC, but was suspended for a non-team related infraction, served a short suspension, and came in, off the bench, after his return. Coach Boeheim inserted Devendorf into the starting line up for the West Virginia game earlier this week. When he is looking for another wing, Coach Boeheim will turn to junior Andy Rautins (6-5, 193lbs), another casualty from last season. Rautins was injured again earlier this season, but appears to have been cleared to play for the West Virginia game. Devendorf and Rautins, along with Flynn, provide virtually all of Syracuse's 3 point shooting, a weapon in the Orange's offensive arsenal missing last season. If Wildcat fans see senior Jake Presutti (6-3, 190lbs) or freshman Kevin Drew (6-2, 177lbs), they can take it as a sign that the Orange have the game well under control (and can most likely exit the Wach to beat the traffic). Before Presutti or Drew enter the game however, Coach Boeheim will most likely shift junior Paul Harris to the wing and insert another front court player.

The Orange have taken a twin tower approach to their paint players, starting for the most part, junior Arinze Onuaku (6-9, 258lbs) with sophomore Rick Jackson (6-9, 235lbs) and junior Paul Harris (6-5, 228lbs) alongside. Jackson will play the #4 as Harris, a 'tweener with the height of a #3 height and the skill set of a #4 looks to slash and score. Onuaku, like Rautins, has been working through an injury; while he most likely will start, he may not play his usual 70% or more of the game. Expect to see senior transfer Kristof Ongenaet (6-8, 215lbs), then freshman Kris Joseph (6-7, 220lbs) during the game (unless the score stays very close throughout & Rautins and Onuaku are 100%, then Joseph may not be used).

Villanova will start Scottie Reynolds, Reggie Redding, Dante Cunningham and Dwayne Anderson. Coach Wright has started senior Shane Clark in Nova's last two games (Cincinnati & Providence). In any case, expect to see the Coreys (Fisher & Stokes) draw double digit minutes, with Antonio Pena coming in during the 1st half. Scottie Reynolds broke out of a minor scoring slump against Providence, scoring a team-high 31 points in 35 minutes of play. Dwayne Anderson scored a season-high 19 points, leading the four teammates (Cunningham, Redding & Fisher) who made up the "second wave" of scoring. Pena's minutes were limited in the Providence game, though his size and strength may be needed against Syracuse.

By the Numbers, Offense & Defense...
Like Providence, Syracuse likes to play for a lot of possessions. They average about 71.5 (adjusted -- per Ken Pomeroy's Team Page) possessions per 40 minutes, 2nd in the Big East only to the Friars. They run a very efficient, elite offense (113.6, adjusted, ranked #27), and a better than average defense (93.4, adjusted, ranked #53), making the Orange a very even matchup for the Wildcats. Nova's ORtg is

When Syracuse has the ball...
				FTA
	eFG%	TO%	OR%	FGA
Orange O	55.2	21.0	35.5	43.3
Wildcat D	44.8	22.2	30.5	37.0

Syracuse, ranked #9 overall in eFG%, will severely test Villanova's shot defense, the weak link in the defense of previous seassons. The Orange will go inside early and often, taking 70% of their FGAs from inside the arc. They convert a whopping 55.9% of those FGAs by the way. Leading the charge to the cup will be pg Jonny Flynn (who takes a lot of shots inside and outside), Paul Harris, Arinze Onuaku (who converts a crushing 70.6% of his FGAs) and Rick Jackson (who is only "slightly less" efficient at 60.2% of his FGAs). Nova defends the 2 very well, yielding a conversion rate of 42.5%, good for a #25 rank. Look for a good deal of competition under the Orange basket. Cuse's weakness is steals, which suggest some defenses may have success contesting the entry pass. The Orange are vulnerable/exploited enough to be ranked in the last quartile of D1 (#291) in thefts allowed. The rate, 11.4% of their possessions are lost through theft, that it drives up their turnover rate (to 21.0%, ranked at #199). Nova's defensive theft rate, about 11.3%, is good enough to suggest the 'Cats may be able to exploit this weakness. Their second weakness is free throw shooting. The Orange hit at a 64.1% rate, good for a #299 ranking (out of 341 D1 schools). The "Four Factors" look at Villanova's offense versus Syracuse's defense:

When Villanova has the ball...
				FTA
	eFG%	TO%	OR%	FGA
Wildcat O	50.7	18.8	36.7	43.5
Orange D	45.8	17.4	34.3	22.5

Note the matchups on shooting (eFG%) -- while not quite a mirror image of Cuse offense/Nova defense, it is very close. Nova is a bit less efficient at converting FGAs to points, while the Cuse is a bit less efficient at defensing the FGA. The 'Cats should get the most out of their possessions, as they don't turn it over much (18.8, ranked #63) and the Orange oblige their opponents by not forcing many turnovers (17.4, ranked #322). Sloppy ball handling will be a bad sign for the 'Cats. Nova needs to get to the line, especially in a closely contested game, as they look for nearly 25% of their points from converted FTAs. By habit though, the Orange have not been cooperative with their opponents, putting them on the line a very paltry 22.5% rate of FGAs. That is a good thing (for them), as Coach Boeheim continues to run one of the shorter rotations in the Big East.

Want to Beat the Orange? Then...
Shooting and shot defense continue to be the leading indicators for winning or losing with both teams.
1. Defend their shots -- When Syracuse converts (eFG%) at less than 50.0, they have gone 3-2, but in all of those wins (West Virginia, Canisius & South Florida...), their opponent converted at rates of 41.0 or less. Which brings us to the second key...
2. Hit your shots -- When their opponents have converted at rates of (eFG%) 57.1 or better, the Orange are 3-3. In all 3 of those wins the Cuse converted at a rate better than the opponent, and better than 57.0. When Villanova converts at a (eFG%) rate of 50.7 or better they are 9-1.
3. Take Your Time -- Villanova, despite what game announcers say, does not appear to function well in higher possession games. Their defense in particular seems to suffer. Keep the pace under 70 and Nova will most likely win, as they have gone 15-1 in those lower paced games. By contrast, Syracuse does not seem comfortable in more deliberate games. In games where the pace has been 67 or lower (about Nova's speed), the Orange have gone 3-4.
4. Contest for Offensive Rebounds -- Syracuse has a pretty strong marker for opponent's offensive rebounding. In games where their opponent has been able to grab 36.8% or more of their missed shots, Syracuse has gone 3-5. Nova's offensive rebounding rate is 36.7%, right at the threshold. Nova has grabbed 36.7% or more of their misses in 9 games this season. When they grabbed 34.7% or less, they went 6-4.
5. Get to the Line -- Villanova has been held to an FTA/FGA rate of 22.5 or lower only once all season (it was Monmouth, and the 'Cats won anyway). That is Syracuse's number. The Oranges have never allowed an opponent to get to the line 43.5% or higher this season. When the opponent does get to the line 28.3% or higher, the Orange have gone 3-3.

Finally...
...Both teams are coming off of strong wins. The Orange thumped the Mountaineers soundly at the Dome (after dropping a decision in Friartown), while the 'Cats are riding a 4 game winning streak that goes back to their 10 point victory over Pittsburgh. Syracuse has gone 1-3 in their last 4 games, and they know they face Connecticut (away), followed by Georgetown and Villanova (again) in a mini-home stand before heading down to NYC to face St. John's. This is a game they would like very much to take.

Pomeroy's calculations suggest the game will be played for 72 possessions (comfortable enough for the Orange), with the 'Cats taking a 7 point decision. If both team's efficiencies hold, the Wildcats should win if they score 80 or more points (or limit the Orange to fewer than 70 points).

All Big East Preseason -- Fall Report Card

The Big East named a preseason All-Big East Team at the conference's Media Day back in October. I was curious to see how these 11 (big conference, big all-star team...) players were doing through the end of their OOC schedules. The data was drawn from ESPN's team stats during Christmas week...

								FTA	FTM
Player	Coll	Pos	Clss	Min%	Shot%	eFG%	PPWS	FGA	FGA
Flynn	Cuse	G	So.	86.1	22.3	58.0	1.25	65.9	48.6
McAlarney	NDU	G	Sr.	85.9	21.8	63.9	1.32	10.2	10.2
Vaughn	Nati	G	Jr.	82.1	21.3	48.7	1.07	29.5	24.2
Williams	Ville	F	Sr.	80.0	19.0	46.7	0.97	36.2	20.0
Reynolds	Nova	G	Jr.	79.4	20.6	48.1	1.11	46.9	39.2
McNeal	Marq	G	Sr.	78.1	31.5	55.5	1.17	23.8	18.9
Young	Pitt	F	Jr.	73.8	35.6	55.8	1.16	32.8	22.2
Thabeet	UConn	C	Jr.	72.4	25.7	67.4	1.37	81.4	54.7
Summers	GTU	F	Jr.	67.7	28.2	65.2	1.36	59.8	43.9
Price	UConn	G	Sr.	64.3	16.5	48.9	1.00	23.3	13.3
Harangody	NDU	F	Jr.	63.9	35.3	51.7	1.13	43.6	33.6

Data has been sorted by Min% (percentage of playing time at a position taken by the player), as an indication of how heavily the team relies on the individual's contribution. Note that Luke Harangody has been slowed by pneumonia in December, missed two games at the beginning of the month, and has played reduced minutes through the end of the month. Harangody logged 87.5% of the minutes at his position in Wednesday night's game versus DePaul.

Right on Schedule...
Jonny Flynn, Kyle McAlarney continue to be very efficient through the OOC. Not surprising though neither is the primary offensive option for their respective teams (Syracuse and Notre Dame). Flynn runs the point for the Orange and has brought them to a 13-1 record through their 1st Big East game (a win over Seton Hall). Flynn's assist rate (as of 1/2/09) is 27.9, good for a Top 200 ranking. McAlarney shoots 3s, prolifically and proficiently. Wednesday versus DePaul McAlarney was 4-11 (3-9 from beyond the arc & 2-2 from the free throw line), good for a PPWS of 1.09 (below his average) and an eFG% of 50.0.

The Early POY Field...
If Harangody plays to last season's numbers (and from all appearances, pneumonia aside, it looks as if he will), beating him for POY will require an extraordinary set of numbers (and a lot of publicity) from a group of players who are seen as his peers. An early field would have to include Marquette's Jerel McNeal, Pittsburgh's Sam Young, Connecticut's Hasheem Thabeet and Georgetown's DaJuan Summers. All, like Harangody, provide a POY profile -- his team's 1st/2nd option on offense (Shot% >25.0), efficient scoring (eFG% > 50.0; PPWS >1.10, etc.) and a number of Top 500-level performance in one or more primary (Min%, Poss%, Shot%, eFG%, ORtg) or secondary (OR%, DR%, FTRate, ARate, TORate, Blks%, Stl%) categories per Ken Pomeroy's team Scouting Reports (each player links to his team's current scouting report).

Player	Top 10	Top 50	Top 100	Top 250	Top 400	Top 500
Jerel McNeal	NA	NA	NA	1/1	3/1	1/0
Sam Young	NA	1/0	1/0	1/0	1/2	NA
Hasheem Thabeet	0/1	1/2	1/1	NA	NA	0/1
DaJuan Summers	NA	1/0	NA	0/2	NA	1/0
Luke Harangody	0/1	0/1	1/0	1/1	0/2	NA

Note the breakdown above lists primary/secondary within the ranking category. Thabeet's credentials may have tarnished a bit from his matchup with Georgetown's freshman Greg Monroe, (4 points, 7 rebounds and 7 blocks in 37 minutes versus 16 points, 3 rebounds, 4 assists and 3 steals in 27 minutes). Jerel McNeal on the other hand faces a challenged from teammate Wes Matthews for Marquette's team POY. Two of Marquette's talented guard trio (Dom James, McNeal and Matthews) has already had his time in the spotlight. This season may well be Matthew's turn.

Struggling Right Now...
Terrence Williams' role in the offense has diminished from last season. His efficiencies, never especially dazzling, are well off of last year's as well. The Cardinal team has struggled with the graduation of red shirt (and transfer...) David Padgett and Williams, variously described as a big guard and point forward, has always been plagued with a less than stellar proficiency beyond the arc, is struggling with even worse numbers this season. Connecticut's AJ Price, taken down with a torn ACL in the first game of the NCAAs last season, has yet to hit his stride.

Big East Freshmen: The 2008 All-Rookie Team

Why would I want to revisit last season's rookies so far removed from last season...well a few of these ten (minus Donta Greene -- departed for the NBA) will be team leaders next season. But even those returning to "well stocked" teams will be expected to show progress over their freshman production. I put together 2 tables, the first looks at possession-based offensive numbers (Poss%, Shot%, ORtg, eFG% and FTRate), along with PPWS, a stat thats gives us an idea of how effective a player is once he gets his shot off. Besides, these were, in the opinion of the press and conference coaches, the eleven best freshmen in the conference, and I was curiuous to see if the numbers supported those opinions.

Player	Coll	%Min	ORtg	%Poss	%Shot	eFG%	PPWS	FTRate
Greene	Cuse	89.2	105.4	23.2	28.2	50.5	1.07	25.5
Flynn	Cuse	88.5	112.9	21.7	22.7	52.6	1.13	34.1
Jones	USF	87.1	111.3	24.0	25.9	53.0	1.15	42.1
Burrell	SJU	78.5	84.4	22.5	23.0	42.9	0.95	33.3
Koshwal	DPU	78.0	101.2	20.3	18.2	50.0	1.05	43.1
Hazell	Hall	67.0	111.7	20.4	24.6	51.1	1.09	28.1
Blair	Pitt	64.6	109.2	24.4	22.2	53.7	1.12	47.6
Freeman	GTown	63.5	115.0	18.4	20.2	60.3	1.25	21.9
Tucker	DPU	56.8	107.4	28.1	31.7	51.1	1.07	28.0
Chandler	RU	54.7	87.6	31.3	31.6	46.6	0.96	34.1
Fisher	Nova	53.1	94.1	25.5	27.5	42.3	0.93	26.9

Statistics were drawn from Ken Pomeroy's web site, the last update (usually the April 7 version) of each team's "Scouting Report" Page. Click on the College beside any player to scroll to his college's Scouting Report.

The players are ordered by playing time (percentage of available minutes they actually played). While playing times may have varied greatly, note that possessions and shots (ie role within their respective team's offense...) showed a good deal less variaton. Virtually everyone of them was a first (Chandler, Tucker), second or third option on offense. Austin Freeman's possessions may seem light compared to the others, but consider that Georgetown had a very balanced offense last season -- Freeman's Poss% and Shot% numbers were almost identical to senior Jon Wallace's numbers. Compared to the 2007 All Big East Rookie Team, the 2008 edition seemed a bit less efficient offensively as well. Of the three whose ORtgs were <100, Rutgers' Corey Chandler and St. John's Justin Burrell seemed conspicuously out of place -- I cannot recall finding a player on an All conference team with an ORtg < 90. Consider the circumstances of each however. St. John's, like Rutgers a "scoring challenged" team in 2007, lost a good deal of it's scoring punch in the off season with graduations and transfers. Going into the season with a class of 7 freshmen to fill out the roster around a couple of upper classmen, the Johnnies found themselves starting the season without their best returning scorer, Anthony Mason Jr. Li'l Mase ended up missing a total of eight games over the course of the season, and Burrell, the most heralded of the incoming class, shouldered a good deal of the scoring burden, quite possibly more than he may have taken on had Mason been healthy in November. Burrell, who finished the season as the Johnnies high scorer, drew a good deal of attention from opposing defenses throughout the season. Corey Chandler of Rutgers faced a similar situation going into the season. Though no significant contributor on the Scarlet Knight's roster was injured, there was actually no "significant contributor" on the roster in the first place. Rutgers, lacking a go-to guy since Quincy Douby entered the NBA draft early in the 2007 off season, had limped through Coach Fred Hill Jr's inaugural season with a team offense (ORtg) ranked at #291 out of 336 in 2006-07. Forward JR Inman took more shots and scored more points, but Chandler, despite missing 3 games near the mid-point of the Big East regular season, drew a good deal of attention from the defenses. He was very capable of having a big night, as many Wildcat fans know all too well.

I grouped the rebounding and some of the defensive stat together for the table below. Anyone having trouble understanind why Mac Koshwal was on the Rookie Team need look no farther than his OR% and DR% for an answer...

Player	Coll	OR%	DR%	%Blk	%Stl
Donte Greene	Cuse	5.5	15.7	4.8	2.0
Jonny Flynn	Cuse	2.0	6.0	0.5	2.3
Dominique Jones	USF	4.5	10.0	0.8	2.6
Justin Burrell	SJU	6.6	15.8	2.4	0.8
Mac Koshwal	DPU	12.0	18.0	2.2	2.3
Jeremy Hazell	Hall	3.1	6.2	0.6	2.9
DeJuan Blair	Pitt	16.6	23.2	4.6	3.9
Austin Freeman	GTown	4.9	8.7	0.3	2.1
Dar Tucker	DPU	8.7	14.1	0.9	2.4
Corey Chandler	RU	6.2	9.5	1.9	3.9
Corey Fisher	Nova	1.6	8.0	0.0	2.8

Co-ROY Dominique Jones may have put up some gaudy numbers for the Bull's offense, but a look at the rebounding numbers for DeJuan Blair of Pittsburgh more than explains why he shared the ROY honors with Jones. DeJuan's OR% and DR% are Top 100 (#6 and #59 respectively), surprising when I realized he was also Top 500 offensively (ORtg). I confess when I first reviewed Blair's dimensions I doubted he would be tall enough and mobile enough to compete in the Big East. He proved to be both. No wonder Cassiem Diggs transferred out after a single season.

The Good Surprises...
DeJuan Blair & Dominique Jones (am I starting to sound like a broken record?). Blair may have had a local reputation coming into Pittsburgh, but he was under appreciated by media and fans nationally. His coming out party at Madison Square Garden, complements of Duke, was marred only by the season-long loss of Mike Cook. Blair went on to share ROY honors with South Florida's Dominique Jones. Something of a practice phenom, Jones got the starting nod over better known redshirt freshman Dante Curry and veteran Solomon Bozeman (both of whom subsequently transferred...) and scored 13 points in his first outing. Near the end of the Bull's out of confernce schedule Jones had a 3 game scoring jag of 30, 30 and 25 against Central Florida, Richmond and Alabama-Birmingham, respectively. That got everyone's attention. Jones went on to score 20 or more points, including a career high 31 against Seton Hall, during his inaugural Big East season. Accomplihsments may pale when measured against Blair and Jones, but Seton Hall's Jeremy Hazell was, for me at least, another pleasant surprise. I had expected Nutter and Laing, along with Harvey, to provide the offensive punch for the Pirates this past season. While the Seton Hall back court seemed crowded (and talented), Hazell proved there is always room on Coach Gonzalez's roster for a scorer.

The Bad Surprises...
While virtually no one tabbed McDonald's All American and Villanova freshman Corey Stokes as the preseason ROY (ok, maybe I did...), not making the All big East Rookie Team was a letdown. Despite some strong exhibition outings, as the season started, the freshman struggled to find his spot in the offense. Stokes adjusted, he learned to play Villanova Defense and began to come on at the season's end. Georgetown's Chris Wright, a very heavily recruited point out of DC, was injured just before the beginning of the Big East regular season and despite a series of post season appearances, ultimately appeared in less than ½ of the Hoyas games, logging < 300 minutes total. Despite some promising numbers (56.4 eFG%, 1.12 PPWS), Wright had virtually no impact on the team and the games he appeared in.

No Surprise (thankfully)...
Mac Koshwal and Dar Tucker, both out of DePaul, were as good as advertised. Unfortunately aside from senior Draelon Burns, the balance of Demons team was worse than advertised. As disappointing (maddenly inconsistent) as the 2007-08 Demons were Burns, Koshwal and Tucker were not. And that kept a season that was extremely disappointing and frustrating from becoming far, far, far worse. Though Syracuse's Jonny Flynn did not, as predicted by the preseason prognosticators, take share the ROY award with teammate Donte Greene, he was every bit as good as most thought he would be. And he will be back in 2008-09.