Ten Teams and the Conference, Three Questions Each, Part 3

The NBA draft is done, summer league games are winding down and the transfers have made their moves. As July turns up the heat and we all look for air conditioning, a few questions come to mind about each Big East program going into the 2016-17 season...

Marquette
By headcount (and starters), the The Golden Eagles personnel loss appears minimal. Appearances can be deceiving. The Ellenson brothers, along with senior Michael Mache departed. Starter Henry Ellenson put his name in for the NBA draft, brother Wally, recruited as much for track as basketball (and his 5 star brother) lost his scholarship in a numbers crunch that reverberated through the Ellenson clan back in April. With 5'11" transfer Andrew Rowsey ready to play and fifth year senior Katin Reinhardt waiting in the wings, expect Marquette to up the long range feature of Wojo's offense.

1. Steve Wojciechowski -- What can fans expect in year 3? Wojo returns 80% of the minutes, 75% of the possessions and 76% of the points from the squad that went 20-13 last season. Year one to year two of the Wojciechowski Era saw the Golden Eagles improve by seven wins. Another seven win bump in 2016-17 is a stretch, but the back court rotation is promising. Headed by Duane Wilson, Traci Carter, Haanif Cheatham, Sandy Cohen and JaJuan Johnson will all get time. Johnson and Cheatham can hit the three consistently while Carter showed a good instinct for passing and stealing the ball. Wojo bolstered the wings this off season by bringing in Reinhardt, a fifth year senior who, despite starting 18 games for the Trojans in 2015-16, foresaw a diminished role with the 2016-17 Trojans. Reinhardt and Johnson will mentor freshman wing Sam Hauser, a 6'6" consensus Top 100 recruit out of Green Bay Wisconsin. The question marks come in the front court, where Luke Fischer (6'11") and Matt Heldt (6'10") are the roster's only players taller than 6'6". Both will have to stay healthy and contribute if Marquette is to improve on last season's 8-10 conference record. Assuming MU brings 10-11 wins into conference play, a 9-9 or better record should yield another 20 win season albeit versus a stronger slate of opponents. A post season invitation should be forthcoming.

2. Will the Ellenson breakup damage recruiting? In need of a third scholarship, Wojo pulled Wally Ellenson's, which led to some social media "unfriending" in the days that followed. Henry maintains contact with Marquette and the staff while Wally will most like continue to run track for Marquette. Given that Wojo managed a commitment from Hauser, Wisconsin's Gatorade Player of the Year, along with Marcus Howard, another consensus Top 100 guard out of Arizona by way of Findley Prep in Las Vegas, the damage looks minimal at this point. Henry Ellenson's name was called June 23, just as expected, but having the opportunity to sign Reinhardt, a proficient and experienced scorer with stops at UNLV (as a freshman) and USC (two season), was too good to pass on. Wojo received an early verbal for the 2017-18 season from three star power forward Ikechukwu Eke, a Nigerian out of University of Detroit Jesuit High School in Michigan.

3. Will Wojo upgrade the competition this season? Despite winning 20 games before being eliminated in the Big East Tournament, Marquette made no post season tournaments last March. The Golden Eagles out of conference schedule featured matchups with NCAA participants Iowa (a loss) and Wisconsin (a win), NIT invitee Belmont (a loss) to go with LSU and Arizona State (both wins). Five sub 300 RPI ranked teams devalued their 10-2 record going into conference play. Marquette will not participate in the Gavitt Games this season, but if tradition holds Marquette can count on a game with in state rival Wisconsin (at the Bradley Center). The out of conference schedule is taking shape as opponents and dates have been announced via twitter and news release. They will open versus Vanderbilt at a neutral site, return to Milwaukee to host Howard (2016 RPI #331) in their home opener, play Michigan (2016 RPI #58) in the semi-final of their early season invitational tournament (the 2K Classic Benefiting the Wounded Warriors Project this year), with a second game versus either Pitt (2016 RPI #51) or SMU (2016 RPI #13). Three home games follow -- IUPUI (2016 RPI #189), Houston Baptist (2016 RPI #224) and Western Carolina (2016 RPI #167) in that order. They return a date with Georgia (away -- 2016 RPI #62) and head back to the Bradley Center to host Fresno State (2016 RPI #69), in-state rival Wisconsin (2016 RPI #41) and St. Francis, PA (2016 RPI #267). That takes MU to Christmas Week and accounts for 11 of their 13 out of conference games. Howard, the lone #300+ ranked team, will most likely not improve its RPI much next season while St. Francis (PA) and Houston Baptist are worrisome. There is no guarantee that those RPIs will carryover through all of next season, but by the numbers, should Marquette log 10/11 wins versus that slate, post season conversations going into Big East play will include the Golden Eagles. With 11 of 13 out of conference opponents (more or less) identified, let's hope the remaining two are about the same quality.


Providence
Junior guard Kris Dunn, twice Big East Player of the Year, and sophomore Ben Bentil were both drafted by the NBA in June, taking the Friars top two scorers (and top rebounder in Bentil) to the league. Also losing rotation guard Junior Lomomba, Coach Ed Cooley returns 54% of the Friars minutes, 42% of the points scored, 43% of the possessions and 47% of the rebounds from last season's squad. There will be plenty of scoring opportunities available, the question is whether the 2016-17 version of the Friars has a player or players who can step into the role.

1. Who will be the next Council/Cotton/Dunn? Cooley has managed to find a backcourt headliner in every one of his four seasons in Friartown. This time around the candidates his three returning guards, Kyron Cartwright, Drew Edwards and Vincent Council II, along with a true freshman point Maliek White and a transfer, Isaiah Jackson (George Mason, 3 years of eligibility). Cartwright, who connected on 36% of his shots, both short and long range, is the best candidate from the 2015-16 squad. He takes, however, nearly three two point attempts for every three point attempt. Jackson, a well regarded bballer out of Florida, took his first stop at George Mason, coached at the time by Paul Hewitt. Hewitt was considered more skilled at identifying and recruiting talent than developing it once on the roster, was fired in March of 2015, leading to Jackson's move to Friartown and Ed Cooley's roster. While at GMU Jackson took a major role in the Patriots' offense and rebounded well for a guard. White, a 6' 2", two time conference player of the year, lead guard out of Richmond, Virginia, has a profile similar to Dunn's. Though two inches shorter than Dunn and only 170 pounds, White averaged 19.3 points, 6.3 assists and 6.1 rebounds per game last season for George Wythe High School. He might be Cooley's best bet.

2. Is Reggie Bullock ready for prime time? The junior forward is the Friars' lead returning scorer from last season's squad. Cooley has two freshmen wings, Khalif Young out of Ontario, Canada who was selected to play in the Biosteel All-Canadian Games -- the Canadian equivalent of the McDonald's All-Star game and Alpha Diallo, a consensus Top 100 recruit from Brewster Academy. Cooley's fourth option is Indiana (by way of Indian Hill CC) transfer Emmitt Holt, a 6'7" 230 pound power forward who ran afoul of Tom Crean when he struck a teammate with his car (and in a later incident picked up for achohol consumption). Those four will, unless Cooley gets a late signing (he hosted a number of fifth year seniors and JUCOs during the late spring), will be the nucleus of the Friar front court rotation.

3. Can the roster (and Cooley) get the Friars back to the NCAAs? PC lacks a traditional big man to function as a #5 on defense and that will be a problem. Historically Cooley's teams have played a high possession, quick paced game that relies on a well conditioned short rotation that presents an array of inside/outside threats designed to keep defenses honest. The out of conference schedule, as always, is weighted with traditional in state and regional rivals. Given that Rhode Island and Massachusetts should have good seasons, PC's SOS will benefit. Wins versus their Gavitt Games opponent (Ohio State) and Emerald Coast Invitational opponents (Memphis followed by Iowa or Virginia) will establish the Friars as credible challengers going into conference play.


Seton Hall
The Pirates lose a starter and their sixth man, a fifth year guard. While that seems minimal, consider they return 72% of the minutes played, but only 65% of the points scored, 63% of the possessions and 50% of the assists from last season's 25-9 team that won its first Big East Tournament in 24 seasons and made its first NCAA appearance since 2006. Such was the impact of Isaiah Whitehead, who was selected by the Utah Jazz (and traded to the New York Nets) in last months NBA draft. Though relegated to the bench, UMass transfer Derrick Gordon became the Pirate's glue guy and was a crucial part of the Pirates' run to the Big East championship and NCAA bid. Despite the first round elimination by Gonzaga, the run was the second in Gordon's career. Three of the more pressing questions that confront Willard during this off season include:

1. Who will lead the Pirates? Willard handed Whitehead the ball and the point guard spot in May of 2015, a symbolic nod to Whitehead's defacto standing among his peers and a practical step to help Whitehead develop skills he would need for the NBA. Whitehead could put the ball in the basket, but could he run an offense and get his teammates involved? The chemistry developed over the 2015 off season was one key to the Hall's revival in 2015-16, and Willard may have to decide whether to actively promote a successor now that Whitehead has moved on. The early leaders include Desi Rodriguez, another wing nearly as talented -- but more mercurial than Whitehead -- and Ishmael Sanogo, a forward whose work ethic and evolving talents have drawn favorable comments from Willard multiple times over the past two seasons. Rodriguez's demonstrativeness has made him a fan favorite, but also landed him in the coach's dog house a few times last season, Sanogo has developed as a solid defensive, but not an especially assertive offensive, #4. Those two are part of a now four man junior class that also includes Angel Delgado and Kadeem Carrington. The four appear to have a tight bond and may simply lead by committee.

2. Where will the lost points come from? Whitehead accounted for nearly one in four of the Hall's points scored last season. Taking his assists into account, he had a hand in nearly 400 additional points scored. With no obvious scoring machine in the wings, Willard will have to fashion a (large?) committee to close that gap. Rodriguez was efficient at scoring both close and long range, but he will draw more defensive attention. Willard must convince him to share the ball when he draws the extra defender. Among his teammates both Delgado, a traditional low post player and Carrington on the perimeter should be able to exploit any defensive cheating on Rodriguez. Sanogo and rotation player Michael Nzei were reliable inside scorers. Whitehead's absence should provide them with additional opportunities. If Veer Singh can improve his accuracy from the three point line, he may earn a sizable chunk of the available minutes left by whitehead and Gordon. Two freshmen off guards, Myles Powell and (especially) Eron Gordon, should get long looks from Willard.

3. Who runs the offense? Willard may have up to four back court players waiting in the wings. Two transfers were point guards at their previous stops and the two true freshmen were shooting guards. The high schoolers are expected to get to campus this fall, but there may be a glitch with Jevon Thomas, the more promising of transfers. A 6'1", 185 pound rising junior out of Kansas State Thomas is a Queens, NY native and former teammate of Marcus Foster (transferred to Creighton). He was involved in an altercation during an intramural game on the West Orange campus last February and subsequently slipped off the radar. In two seasons with Webber, Thomas showed a good aptitude for passing the ball and setting up his teammates. Rising senior Madison Jones improved his assist rate in each of his three seasons at Wake Forest, but drew a second team suspension in August of 2015 and transferred to the Hall. Unlike Whitehead, neither Thomas nor Jones showed an aptitude for scoring, so Willard will have to look elsewhere. He could, much as he did Whitehead, attempt to convert one of the freshmen off guards, most likely Gordon -- who has been described as an excellent passer and good play maker -- into a serviceable point guard.

Guest Contributor Ray Floriani -- The Jimmy V Classic

by Ray Floriani

New York City – The annual Jimmy V Classic at Madison Square Garden gave us two interesting games. In the opener, Missouri had a little too much of everything in defeating Villanova 81-71.

Pre-game national anthem

The pace and efficiency:

		Off.
	Poss.	Eff.
Villanova	69	103
Missouri	69	117

The Four Factors:

		FTA
	eFG%	FGA	OR%	TO%
Villanova	51	17	36	22
Missouri	50	23	36	12

Jay Wright makes a point

Villanova coach Jay Wright watched all seven of Missouri’s previous games on tape. What he saw was a well coached, veteran team that defends and simply was a challenging task for his young Wildcats. “We were hoping to grind it out, keep it close near the end and possibly steal one,” Wright said.

Villanova trailed by double digits most of the second half but did close late to get it to a one possession game. Each time Villanova was unable to get any closer. The culprit was turnovers, untimely turnovers.

The Wildcats entered the game with a commendable 19% TO rate. Missouri, which exerts pressure in a half court setting forced Villanova into a 22% rate. That proved significant as Villanova shot well, got to the line and hit the boards hard. Transition points were crucial also as the Big Twelve representatives owned a 24-8 edge in fast break points.

Wildcats placed five players in double figures. Their points and Manley totals are as follows:

		Manley
	Pts	Eff.
Maalik Wayns	14	13
Darrun Hilliard	13	8
Dom Cheek	12	14
Mouphtaou Yarou	11	14
JayVaughn Pinkston	10	12

• Maalik Wayns canned three treys in the stretch. He added 9 assists but did commit five turnovers. Yarou is a nice player inside but needs help. Pinkston did some fine work in the lane. He is still coming around as Wright noted “he (Pinkston) is rusty.” The Villanova mentor noted Pinkston not only sat out suspended last year but worked nine hours a day and was able to get little gym time for himself. Hilliard is a freshman with a nice shooting stroke. Cheek does a good job in the open floor.

• Marcus Denmon led all scorers with 28 points. The Missouri guard was 6 of 10 from the floor. Kim English added 15 while Ricardo Ratliffe scored 17 points while grabbing 11 boards. Ratliffe proved it’s quality not quantity. He is Missouri’s only legitimate big man but the 6-8 senior forward is very effective.

• Learning experience. Wright and several of his Villanova players echoed that sentiment following the game. “we’ll learn from this,” Cheek said. “We’ll watch the tape, get back to practice and just get better.”

View of court from
upper press box

• Spent the first half recording possessions longhand. Came up with 34 per team, the same as the formula yielded off the box score. Missouri led 42-29 at the break with a noticeable 125-85 advantage in offensive efficiency.

• Missouri is 8-0. Villanova is now 5-3 with a Saturday game at Temple next on tap.

Marquette vs. Washington
The night cap of the V saw Marquette edge Washington 79-77 in a game settled on the last possession. The pace and efficiency:

		Off.
	Poss.	Eff.
Marquette	74	107
Washington	71	109

One of those rare occurrences, Washington won the efficiency battle but not the won-lost ‘war’. Huskies had a 46-28% lead in offensive rebounding percentage. Interestingly, Marquette had the edge 31-7% in free throw rate. Usually teams ‘owning’ the glass get to the line more.

A reason Marquette visited the line (27 to 10 in free throw attempts) more was their ability to attack the basket. They led 10-0 in fast break points and penetrated well.

The scoreboard tells the story of game two

Marquette coach Buzz Williams is a tempo free advocate who discussed Washington’s efficiency in the post game press conference. Williams is a stickler in preaching the value and numerical meaning of a possession to his players. Little surprise that Marquette had an outstanding 14% TO rate, as opposed to the 23% of the Huskies.

Jae Crowder (18 points) hit one three all night. It was the deciding basket for Marquette as a Washington attempt pon the next possession missed at the buzzer.

The leading scorers and Manley numbers:

		Manley
	Pts	Eff.
Darius Johnson-Odom (MU)	23	17
Terrence Ross (WU)	19	24

• Marquette’s Jae Crowder had a Manley Efficiency of 17 along with his 18 points.

• Chris Otule of Marqueete went out with a knee injury after the first two minutes. The 6-11 junior averages just over 5 p[oints per game but Williams felt his loss was significant in Marquette’s defending Washington’s ball screens.

• Marquette is 8-0, Washington is now 4-3.

• Huskies are spending a few more days in New York. They will take in a movie, two plays then on Saturday face Duke back at Madison Square Garden.

Villanova was the only schol to bring cheerleaders.
Here Ray is enjoying the company

Random Thoughts After First Friday

As I Was Scanning the Scoreboard, Twitter, Messageboards, etc
A progessional obligation kept me away from the TV set (ie ESPN) as Division I resumed with a vengance Friday night. Though the season "started" with a dribble of games -- mostly campus site games for early season invitational tournaments -- Friday brought a whopping 131 games. I have not checked to see if all those games involved two D I opponents, we can guess that nearly 246 of Division I's 348 teams (69.5%) saw action. After streaming the Villanova-Monmouth game (a 106-70 rout) I started a wider search for comments/scores. Sifting through the scoring summaries and catching a few tweets, I found a handful of games that caught my eye...

What a Difference a Year Makes (part 1)
Big 5 fans followed the progress of Saint Joseph's freshmen class from a very uneven start in 2010-11 to a brief florish close the season. Western Kentucky, a Sun Belt Conference power over the years, thumped the Hawks 98-70 to open last season at the Hagan. This season the Hawks opened in Western Kentucky and returned the favor as they beat the Hilltoppers by 11, 72-61 in Bowling Green, KY. Guards Carl Jones and Langston Galloway did their thing (16 and 19 points respectively with three assists and five steals), but not seeing sophomore forward Ron Roberts in the starting lineup was a bit surprising (Hofstra transfer Halil Kanacevic got the nod and logged eight minutes before fouling out). Roberts did get a 31 minute run, recording his first double-double of the season -- 10 points and 11 rebounds. The really good news was C. J. Aiken's 35 minutes. The 6-9 center blocked five shots, scored 12 points, and drew only three fouls. Coach Martelli's charges will see Georgia Tech Thursday night in the Charleston Classic. This will be a reunion of sorts, as the Yellow Jackets are now coached by former Dayton head coach Brian Gregory. It should be a great opportunity for the Hawks to draw some national attention.

Oops, Wrong First Impressions...
An extremely enthusiastic tweet from Chris DiSano of College ChalkTalk about Rhode Island's freshman forward Jon Holton (and a follow up about senior guard Jamal Wilson's awesome 38 point outburst) sent me on a search for the Rhodi-George Mason boxscore. The game went into overtime with the Runnin' Rams dropping a two point (90-92) decision on the road. My first check on possessions had the game (overtime included) at around 92 possessions. I was wrong (I'll blame the unofficial box score for that...yeah, that's the ticket, it was the unofficial box score...), the calculation from the official box score puts the possessions at 87...which means my first thought -- Rhode Island needs more offense -- was off base. The Runnin' Rams gave up 1.06 points per possession to the Patriots, and handed the CAA another win over the A-10 (a problem come Selection Sunday). Granted Coach Baron is going to have a reliable second and third option, Wilson is not going to shoot 13-22 (1-2, 12-20) to go with an 11-12 from the line every night, but he has options now in his front court with senior Orion Outerbridge and sophomore Nikola Malesevic if the two forwards can exercise better judgement on their three point attempts. Combined they hit 3-14 from beyond the arc (nine points on 14 attempts), while shooting a combined 4-8 inside (eight points on eight attempts). Wilson by the way, posted a 61.4% eFG with a 1.39 PPWS, both will be noted elsewhere when I file my first report. Holton will need to work on his shot (2-11 from the field, 7-10 from the line), but he will see minutes because he is a rebounding monster -- he snagged a stunning 34.7% of the available defensive rebounds when he was on the court. URI might be able to get a bit more offense when Auburn transfer Andre Malone and Virginia transfer Billy Baron become eligible late next month. For now Coach Baron may have to rely on freshman Mike Powell to handle the point guard duties. For Powell GMU was something of a baptism of fire as he shot an underwhelming 3-11 from the field while handing out six dimes (nearly negated by five turnovers).

Wow, What a Difference...(part 2)
Saint Louis fans suffered through a multitude of basketball-related problems in 2010-11. I wondered going into the season how the Billikens would react to the log jam in the back court and whether they would find an offense to go their their lock-down defense (the Billikens were ranked #47 by Ken Pomeroy last season). Majerus is not reputed to be an especially "user friendly" coach, so losing one or more of the freshmen back court players before the season started would not have been too surprising (sophomore Christian Salecich did transfer out during the summer). The Bills struggled against the Carleton Ravens on their Canadian Tour this summer, losing red shirt junior guard Kwamain Mitchell at the end of their fourth exhibition, not the best sign going into the fall semester. Friday night they demolished Tennessee State of the Ohio Valley Conference, 71-37 (yup, the defense is back) before 6,400+ fans at Chaifetz. My numbers (unadjusted) show a 61 possession game (typical of Majerus), which means the defense is in mid-season form -- they held Tennessee State to a measly 0.60 points per possession), but the offense is still a work in progress. Mitchell started and coupled a horrific 3-11 outing with 40% shot rate in his 27 minute (66.7% of the playing time) run. Mitchell will get better (or take a seat on the bench, Majerus is not the most patient coach) to be sure. Conklin, along with sophomores Mike McCall and Jordair Jett compensated with very efficient shooting nights (combined they went 10-15 from the field). Limiting a team to 37 points is impressive. Saint Louis is headed off to the 76 Classic later this month, with a matchup versus Villanova a distinct possibility.

Speaking of Defensive Showcases
Buzz Williams' Marquette squad shut down Mount St. Mary's Friday night too, handing the Mountaineers a 54 point loss (91-37) to open the season. The offensive/defensive display was impressive, as the two played for about 71 possessions, thereby scoring about 1.28 points per possession, while limiting Mount St. Mary's to 0.58 PPP. The starting five Jae Crowder, Chris Otule, Darius Johnson-Odom, Vander Blue and Junior Cadougan (note the three guards?) did a nice job of distributing shots and possessions, which reminded me a bit of the Syracuse team from 2010. Blue in particular struggled late last season, but had an efficient outing (a 62.5% eFG on 5-8 shooting from the field, which computes to a 1.25 PPWS). Cadougan struggled a bit with his shot (4-9, 44.4% eFG), but made his double-double the hard way, 10 points to go with 10 dimes in 24 minutes of play.

Amidst the Blowouts
The Big East finished off their eight opponents -- home games all -- Friday night by an average of 25.3 points. Two exceptions to the exhibition of BCS muscle-flexing came in Morgantown and Piscataway. True West Virginia led from the opening tip, but Coach Bob Huggins' squad had to withstand a furious closing rush by the Golden Eagles to perserve a 78-71 win. The Scarlet Knights, like West Virginia, broke on top early, but needed free throws at the end to hold off Big Green. Coach Mike Rice's squad struggled on offense, converting possessions-to-points at a 0.98 rate (about 62.7 possessions). The shot conversion (50.0% eFG%) was fine, but turnovers (a 25%+ rate) undermined the effort. A 40.9% assist rate was not especially impressive either. If this is a representative game (at least until the freshmen catch up), expect the front court, powered by junior Dane Miller and sophomore Gilvyda Baruta to provide the points. Among the freshmen two guards, Jerome Seagears and Eli Carter posted nine points apiece on relatively efficient shooting. West Virginia played a predictably high 73 possession game with seniors Kevin Jones and Darryl Bryant providing a good deal of the offense. Surprisingly the staff started freshman Jabari Hinds at the point, and the 5-11 spark plug did not disappoint, scoring nine points to go with five assists. Freshman forward Miles Keaton also got the starting nod (a message to Kevin Noreen?) and snagged two rebounds and five steals in 21 minutes of play.

2011-12 Preview -- Second Quartile

The Bottom Half of the Top Half
The teams who finish in this quartile will have won at least 10 games and almost certainly (if they were not too cute with their out of conference schedule) have an NCAA bid in hand when they leave Madison Square Garden after the Big East Tournament. The quartile will have (by my projection) two new teams, Notre Dame sliding down from a first quartile finish last season, and Marquette, sliding up from the 2011 third quartile.

	2010-11 Season
	Overall			Big East			BET	Post
Team	W	L	Pct.	W	L	Pct.	Seed	Season?
Cincinnati	26	9	0.743	11	7	0.611	6	NCAA
Marquette	22	14	0.611	9	9	0.500	11	NCAA
Notre Dame	27	7	0.794	14	4	0.798	2	NCAA
West Virginia	21	12	0.636	11	7	0.611	7	NCAA

Marquette, Notre Dame and West Virginia have established themselves as upper division (at times elite) programs in conference play, no small feat in the Big East. Cincinnati is back. Labeled a Dead Man Walking when Andy Kennedy, the last vestage of the Bob Huggins Era, stormed out of Fifth Third after a first round NIT loss back in 2006, Mick Cronin has revived the program and has them within striking distance of the conference penthouse.

Team Thumbnail (in 300 words...more or less)
Cincinnati -- Bearcat Rising?
The offensive and defensive efficiencies (points per possession), along with the difference margin for the past three seasons...

	Efficiency
Season	Off.	Def.	Margin
2008-09	1.03	1.11	-0.08
2009-10	1.00	1.06	-0.05
2010-11	1.03	0.98	0.05

...if the trendline holds Coach Mick Cronin's squad should better their 11-7 record by one or two wins this season. Lance Stephenson came and went as did Ibrahima Thomas; Deonta Vaughn lifted the Bearcats a bit and moved on; Rashad Bishop took his 15 minutes on the great stage, but the constant over the past three seasons has been Yancy Gates (27.8 MPG, 11.9 PPG, 6.9 RPG) -- with a nod to Dion Dixon (26.8 MPG, 11.6 PPG, 1.5:1.0 ATO). Those two were the squad's leading scorers last season, and without a doubt Coach Mick Cronin is happy to have both back again this season. Though Thomas and Bishop (& Darnell Wilkes) are gone, the Bearcats return 59% of their 2010-11 minutes (four points above the conference average of 55%) and 66% of their scoring. As usual, the Cincinnati team starts with the front court where Gates will be joined by returning rotation player Justin Jackson. Red shirt freshman Kelvin Gaines will compete with 6-10 JUCO big Cheikh Mbodj for starts and minutes in the low post. A trio of freshmen fowards, Octavius Ellis, Jermaine Sanders and Shaquille Thomas will find work on the wing, giving Cronin a "going big" option. Thomas is especially well regarded in that group, though Ellis is an interesting 6-9 in height. The back court will have two year starter Cashmere Wright again manning the point and pair up with Dixon, a senior off guard. Sean Kilpatrick started a single game in 2011-12, but played an average of 20.5 minutes while appearing in all 35 of the Bearcats' games. Kilpatrick will get a bit of competition from JaQuan Parker, a 6-3 junior who saw more minutes as a freshman. With freshmen guards Jeremiah Davis (a 6-3 native of Muncie, IN who prepped at Huntington Prep last year) and Ge'Lawn Guyn, a Kentucky native who prepped at South Kent last season pushing the rotation, there will competition for minutes at virtually every position.

A road trip to Georgia, a Cross Town randezvous at the Cintas Center and a visit from Oklahoma highlight the out of conference slate, not, Xavier aside, the most challenging preparation for conference play. The Xavier game will be billed a Top 10/15 matchup, and should be closer than last season's 22 point Bearcat beatdown of the Musketeers. If 'Nati is 14-0 for their New Years Day (2012) game with Pittsburgh, count on this game as a Top 10 matchup. Drawing mirrors with Marquette, St. John's and Villanova should be interesting. 6-0 may not be likely (but possible), 5-1 with sweeps of Villanova and St. John's is, if the offense gels, within reach, though 4-2 would be a modest bump in the road. Top conference contenders Louisville, Notre Dame and Syracuse will all visit Fifth Third, an advantage for Cronin's charges. Going 3-0 against those three should cushion against a road slate that includes Connecticut, Georgetown, Pittsburgh and West Virginia. Going 4-0 against that slate would probably net them the regular season crown, not realistic, but 2-2, even 1-3 would be keep them in the hunt for a bye seed for the year-end Garden party.

Marquette -- Tom Crean's Best Recruit...

Which Warrior/Golden Eagle
was Tom Crean's Best Recruit?
A.	Travis Diener
B.	Dwayne Wade
C.	Jerel McNeal
D.	Buzz Williams

If you answered (A) you are clearly a (Wisconsin) homer; (B) is a logical response at this point; (C) and you probably did not pay attention to Marquette until they joined the Big East (hint, there was life before 2006); in another three seasons, (D) might be the new no brainer. The best news for Marquette in an otherwise bad news (for the Big East) off season was that Buzz Williams turned aside talk of the Oklahoma job quickly and focused on the job at hand in Milwaukee. True the Sooners are in pretty bad shape but Oklahoma AD Joe Castiglione asked Buzz first, and the three year veteran, coming off of his first Sweet Sixteen run looked at the Sooners, and took a pass. Which leads me to think he, looking over the Golden Eagle 2011-12 roster and prospects (and a new contract?), had to like what he saw in Milwaukee more than Norman, a huge development given Williams' southwest roots. Though he (the Williams with a B) was out coached by Williams (the one with an R) last March, chalk that up to inexperience, something I suspect will happen less the longer he stays and the more notebooks he fills.

Oklahoma did find a good match in a very experienced Lon Kruger, but Marquette fans have to feel good going into this season. They lost NBA draftee Jimmy Butler, and a couple of other seniors (not to mention a promising front court player in Erik Williams), but return 62% of their 2010-11 minutes and 61.8% of the scoring, strong hints about the balance on the roster. Starters Darius Johnson-Odom (off guard...30.0 MPG, 15.8 PPG, 2.4 APG), Jae Crowder (#4, 27.6 MPG, 11.8 PPG, 6.8 RPG) and Chris Otule (#5, 17.6 MPG, 5.1 PPG, 3.6 RPG) are back, along with center Devante Gardner whose role and involvement grew as the season progressed. Expect the sophomore to challenge Otule for a larger role in the low post this season. DJO will be joined in the Marquette back court by junior Junior Cadougan (19.8 MPG, 4.0 PPG, 3.2 APG) who, along with sophomore Vander Blue (19.0 MPG, 5.1 PPG, 1.6 APG), have logged starts in their time at Marquette. Freshmen prospects Derrick Wilson, a 6-0 product of The Hotchkiss School will be Cadougan's back up at the #1, while Todd Mayo, a 6-3 guard out of Huntington, WV by way of Notre Dame Prep in Massachusetts (and younger brother of OJ Mayo) will join Blue and DJO in an off guard/wing rotation. Crowder along with Otule and Gardner will anchor the front court, but expect Oregon transfer Jamil Wilson to fill Butler's shoes on the wing. If he can become a consistent contributor and improve his outside shot, the Golden Eagles will not write this off as a "rebuilding" year. Expect freshman forward, 6-6 Juan Anderson (after he returns from his three game, NCAA-imposed suspension) and junior Jamail Jones to share time in the wing/forward rotation.

Marquette will headline a Paradis Jam field that also includes fellow power conference members Mississippi (SEC, the probable second round opponent) and Virginia (ACC, the probable Finals opponent). Though the field is augmented with CAA representative Drexel and MVC contender Drake, Marquette should win out. The balance of the out of conference slate features games with state rival Wisconsin (at Madison), Washington (Jimmy V Classic, New York City), at LSU (SEC) and Vanderbilt, an SEC contender. A one (even two) loss record going into conference play should not dampen the enthusiasm among fans (or on the Selection Committee). Mirror games with Cincinnati, Georgetown and Villanova means Marquette drew a more competitive-than-usual slate. 3-3 against that field would not be cause for alarm, 4-2 or 5-1 would be a very good sign. The Warriors will get home court advantage against Louisville and Pittsburgh two teams who should challenge for the conference regular season title. Beating at least one of the two would put Williams' crew on the path to a 7-2/8-1 conference home record, a prerequisite for a bye seed and serious run at the title. Their road opponents include Connecticut, Notre Dame, Syracuse and West Virginia, a tough draw that requires a dominating performance at home as a counter to a poor road showing. A 5-4 or better record away from the Bradley would be good news for Willliams' team.

Notre Dame -- Brey For the Defense?
Want to know how the Irish will do in conference play this season? Watch their defensive efficiency (points per possession allowed). Their winning percentage "moves" in the opposite direction as their defensive efficiency, as the table below suggests. Book it.

	Efficiency			Record
Year	Off.	Def.	Margin	W	L	Pct.
2007-08	1.101	1.036	0.065	14	4	0.778
2008-09	1.097	1.081	0.016	8	10	0.444
2009-10	1.135	1.097	0.038	10	8	0.556
2010-11	1.130	1.055	0.075	14	4	0.778

Understand that Notre Dame's defense will not win any awards soon. The Irish defensive points per possession (ppp) did not rank higher than 10 in any of the seasons listed above. They were ranked as low as #13 in 2008-09.

Coach Brey's squad returns 54.4% of Notre Dame's 2011 minutes and 49.5% of that squad's scoring. Though he will start the season on the bench, Tim Abromaitis (34.2 MPG, 15.4 PPG, 6.1 RPG) won't be benched for the second game. The staff used the fifth year wing/forward in an exhibition game his sophomore season and then red shirted him, a minor NCAA violation that should have no impact on Notre Dame's season -- Mississippi Valley State should offer little resistence. Eric Atkins (25.4 MPG, 5.8 PPG, 3.2 APG) will start at the point, much as he did last season, with fellow sophomore Joey Brooks (7.6 MPG, 1.6 PPG, 0.4 APG) along side him in the back court and senior Scott Martin (30.5 MPG, 9.7 PPG, 4.8 RPG) -- when his ankle is ready -- along side Abro on the wing. Brey will have the option of starting four guards (unlikely outside of the exhibition season), in which case he can call sophomore Alex Dragicevich or his classmate Jerian Grant, both of whom will fit into the regular rotation this season. Brey will go big and Jack Cooley (10.3 MPG, 3.7 PPG, 3.1 RPG), a Luke Harangody look-alike who appeared in all 34 games last season as Tyronne Nash's back up will get the nod. Freshman guard/forward Pat Connaughton (6-5, 206 pounds out of St. John's Prep in Arlington, Mass) will see time in the regular rotaton, while junior front court players Mike Broghammer and Tom Knight will draw situational minutes.

Notre Dame will compete in the CBE Classic, a mixed format invitational which provides two home games and a two round "championship" bracket against two BCS-level opponents on a neutral court (Kansas City, MO). The "regional" visitors are Detroit and Sam Houston State, while the Irish will face Missouri (Big 12) and one of California (Pac-12) or Georgia (SEC) in the second game. Missouri and California could be contenders in their respective conferences, while Georgia will finish somewhere in the middle of the SEC East. The Irish will travel to Washington state for a game with Gonzaga, then take a return engagement at the BB&T Classic to play Maryland (a strong showing in 2006-07 brought national exposure to the Kurz/Harangody front court combination). The out of conference scehcule winds down with a game in the Crossroads Classic versus Big Ten (and in state rival) Indiana. The Irish draw mirror games with Connecticut, Rutgers and West Virginia. If Notre Dame can perform on the road (an intermittent problem the past few seasons), they should log no worse than a 4-2 record (sweep Rutgers and split with UConn and WVU), with a ceiling of five wins, especially if West Virginia struggles. 3-3 signals a big problem with the 2012 edition of the program. If Notre Dame are "feeling normal", they Joyce Center will be a problem for everyone on their home slate (DePaul, Marquette, Pittsburgh, Providence, South Florida and Syracuse), though several (Pitt? Cuse? Marquette?) should be able to overcome the considerable advantage the Irish muster on their home court...4-2 perhaps? More likely 5-1 only if they are very, very good. The road slate as implemented may be less imposing than it looks on paper (Cincinnati, Georgetown, Louisville, Seton Hall, St. John's, Villanova). The Irish catch Cincinnati and Louisville early (Coach Pitino's teams tend to gel later in the season), while visiting both Georgetown and Villanova in February, a time when the Hoyas and Wildcats tend to fade. On paper 2-4 might look reasonable, but should Coach Brey's squad catch all the breaks, look for a ceiling of 5-1 -- in which case the Irish will be in serious pursuit of a bye seed to Madison Square Garden next March.

West Virginia -- Old Reliable?
The Big East coaches projected a #7 finish for the 'Eers with good reason -- West Virginia has not logged a losing conference record or a lower division finish in Bob Huggins four year tenure in Morgantown...

Season	W	L	Pct.	Mins
2010-11	11	7	0.668	55.9%
2009-10	13	5	0.722	65.9%
2008-09	10	8	0.556	61.9%
2007-08	11	7	0.668	53.8%

While the program returns only 39.3% of their 2010-11 minutes, the group will have nearly 45% of those points back.

Coach Huggins will bring back an inside-outside combination that should anchor both the front and back court contingents. Senior point guard Darryl Bryant (26.6 MPG, 11.6 PPG, 3.0 APG) will team with senior forward Kevin Jones (34.9 MPG, 13.1 PPG, 7.5 RPG) to bring experience to the lineup. Bryant, who had a period of adjustment between his freshman and sophomore seasons, has settled into the program and may be poised to have the season the Mountaineer Nation has anticipated since his All-Conference Rookie Team days. Huggins loves forwards and he will have several to look to this season, including returning junior rotation player Deniz Kilicli (16.4 MPG, 6.6 PPG, 4.0 RPG), a 6-9 bfc who was well regarded when he arrived in Morgantown (after a few delays) two seasons ago, red shirt freshman Kevin Noreen, a 6-10 245 pound bfc who played less than 40 minutes last season, 6-8, 240 pound JUCO junior Dominique Rutledge, a New Jersey native who made stops at Hutchenson CC (Kansas), Miami-Dade CC (Florida) and Western Texas College before landing in Morgantown. Rutledge, having played ball for Hutchenson and Miami-Dade, will be available immediately and has two years of eligibility. Those four will (barring injury) carrying the large portion of minutes (Jones, possibly Klicli -- sidelined with a ding to his knee and/or Noreen will start) though the freshman class also has several players to contribute to the front court rotation. Keaton Miles, a 6-6 'tweener out of Dallas, Texas started in West Virginia's exhibition loss to Northern Kentucky last weekend, while Pat Forsythe, a 6-11 240 pound center out of Brunswick High School in Ohio, Aaron Brown and Tommie McCune are also available (they combined for 26 minutes versus Northern Kentucky). In the back court, expect a starting tandem of Bryant and 5-11 Mount Vernon, NY native Jabari Hinds a veru well-regarded point guard. Include Paul Williamson (6-3, 195 lbs), Gary Browne (6-1, 185 lbs) and Aric Dickerson (6-5, 180 lbs) among the other freshmen who fill out the 2011-12 roster. A-10 refugees Aaric Murray (La Salle) and Juwan Statten (Dayton) will sit this season and continue their collegiate careers next season.

The out of conference schedule includes trips to Mississippi State (the Big East/SEC Challenge), a semi-neutral meeting with Kansas State, Miami in Morgantown and (pre)Christmas in Las Vegas that includes meetings with Missouri State and Baylor on consecutive nights. Getting to the conference regular season with a 12-0 record is not realistic, especially with the number of freshmen on the squad...11-1/10-2 however, is probable and would earn WVU a few votes in the polls. In addition to Backyard Brawl rival Pittsburgh, West Virginia drew Notre Dame and Rutgers as mirrors. 4-2 (sweep Rutgers, split with Pitt and NDU) seems reasonable, but given the early season road trip through the New York City metro area (Seton Hall and then Rutgers), the 'Eers may end up with three splits and 3-3 with the mirrors. Hosting Cincinnati, DePaul, Georgetown, Louisville, Marquette and Villanova is especially fortuitous, given that 'Nati, GTown the Ville, Marquette and Nova should be WVU's nearest rivals in conference standings and the Coliseum is one of the least hospitable venues in the conference. 6-0/5-1 would put Huggins' squad in line for a bye seed. The road slate includes Connecticut, Providence, Seton Hall, St. John's, South Florida and Syracuse. Another very amenable slate for the 'Eers, 4-2 is probably the ceiling. 3-3, irrespective of the home and mirror records, is probably the floor...anything lower and WVU is probably not going to post a 0.500 or better record in conference play.

Elements They Share
Each of these four squads have an all-conference player or two. And if each has a question or two that will influence how their season plays out, none has an obvious hole in the roster that must be plugged to stay in the upper half of the conference. Their rotations are deep enough that a single injury would not derail the season. Two injuries on the other hand...

Most Likely to...(and why):
To Move Up a Quartile -- Cincinnati (or Marquette). Cronin and Williams are younger coaches whose players seem to respond to their passionate approach to basketball, game management and coaching. Each is a player (or a player-and-a-half) away from a Top 10 team. If Gates can hold down the low post with Thomas or Ellis emerging (along with Kilpatrick) on the wing or if Mbodj can improve over Thomas' contribution in the low post (and let Gates ad lib), then the Bearcats will be hard to stop. Can the Warriors' Wilson continue to work hard and stay focused? If the transfer can do that, and the Cadougan/Blue/Wilson combination make the point guard position work again for Marquette, then the Golden Eagles will pull a few upsets before the season's final gun.

Move Down a Quartile -- West Virginia. The 'Eers have a lot of questions to answer. If things break badly they may have problems holding the slide to 9-9. Notre Dame is another wildcatd. The Irish offense will be good -- it always is. Their standing will resolve over their defense.

Mia Culpa, Mia Maxima Culpa, 2011

Confessions & Observations...
I am a bit late with the previews this time around. The preseason was pre-empted with news and speculation about team movements among three BCS conferences and two-to-three nonBCS conferences, a process that seemed at times to take all of the oxygen out of the room. An especially distressing development as I was again reminded of the miniscule impact basketball had on the calculus of movement. Time to take a quick review of last season...

	2010-11 Actual					Proj.
Team	W	L	Pct	Seed	Qtl	Qtl
Cincinnati	11	7	0.611	7	2	3
Connecticut	9	9	0.500	9	3	3
DePaul	1	17	0.056	16	4	4
Georgetown	10	8	0.556	8	2	1
Louisville	12	6	0.667	4	1	2
Marquette	9	9	0.500	11	3	2
Notre Dame	14	4	0.778	2	1	3
Pittsburgh	15	3	0.833	1	1	1
Providence	4	14	0.222	14	4	4
Rutgers	5	13	0.278	13	4	4
Seton Hall	7	11	0.389	12	3	3
St. John's	12	6	0.667	5	2	2
South Florida	3	15	0.167	15	4	4
Syracuse	12	6	0.667	4	1	2
Villanova	9	9	0.500	10	3	1
West Virginia	11	7	0.611	6	2	1

Through a Looking Glass Darkly...
Ugh. It was a great season for the conference, as the Big East pulled down 11 invitaitons to the NCAA post season tournament, a record high for a conference, and with 68.8% of the members drawing bids, a record for post season money earned. Too bad the conference struggled in tournament play, moving only Marquette as far as the Sweet Sixteen last March. Though talk throughout the season centered on the notion that 11 bids were possible, I was a bit late to the party. I believed that the teams not invited would have to absorb a large number of losses (to insure most of the conference would have at least a 0.500 record) while those likely to draw the bids would have to split amongst themselves. Insuring the "perfect storm", the balance of Division I would have to relatively poor by comparison. It seems Division I was accomodating (unexpectedly) -- consider Butler, despite an unsteady 3-4 start that included a loss to Evansville, nevertheless ran to a consecutive Final Four, upsetting Pittsburgh before falling to #9 ranked (in conference play) Connecticut in the Championship Game. Within the Big East, sorting out the teams doomed to struggle was far easier than identifying the teams that would succeed.

Misses Mostly...
If I predicted the fourth quartile to the team, I missed pretty badly elsewhere. Of the four teams projected for first quartile finishes (Georgetown, Pittsburgh, Villanova and West Virginia), two (Georgetown and West Virgnia) finished in the second quartile while one (sigh, Villanova) fell all the way to the third quartile. I did manage to identify one second quartile finisher correctly (Cincinnati, though I would not have guessed they would finish higher than Villanova) to go with two third quartile finishers (Connecticut! -- right answer, wrong reason -- and Seton Hall). Notre Dame, a third quartile team in my projection ran to an excellent 14-4 record to finish #2, good for a BET bye seed and first quartile finish. I correctly placed half of the conference (within a quartile), but missed by two quartiles on two teams. Ouch.

What's Next
I decided to revert to a quartile-by-quartile preview, providing thumbnails of each team projected to finish in that specific quartile. The quartile previews will be posted over the course of this week. Other projects took time normally devoted to preparing the team-by-team previews, and I anticipated the addition of Texas Christian would preclude another oppportunity to preview the conference by fourths. Correct answer again, but for the wrong reason.

Transfers and JUCOs -- Eight to Watch

The Thing Is...
Restocking a roster with JUCOs is a viable option as a quick, short term remedy for a depleted roster. First and second year coaches take that path, especially if, like Coach Mick Cronin, they step into the kind of post Apocolyptic locker room left by Bob Huggins and Andy Kennedy or, like Coach Steve Lavin, they step into a program very heavily weighted with a single class. The good news is the program has game-ready players. The bad news -- the program has the JUSO's services for two years at best (if the JUCO does not sabotage himself). Transfers may provide an extra season of eligibility (leaving early, like Wesley Johnson, is always a problem), but take a roster spot for the year they have to sit per NCAA-imposed "penalty" for deciding to change schools. Some programs, Xavier, keep their pipeline well stocked with redshirts and transfers, the effect of which reduces the swings that can plague their high school recruiting efforts. The Big East has had an uptick in JUCOs in the 2011 off season, only partly the effect of having four new coaches in the 2011 season -- Mick Cronin and Stan Heath just cannot seem to put old habits aside. The conference again saw more outbound transfers than inbounds from 2010 -- the ones who will be eligible in 2011-12. The following eight new faces are not all destined to be impact players (two or three perhaps...), but all should be solid contributors (at least) to their respective programs...

	Who, What, Where...
Player	Pos.	Hgt	Wgt	From	To
G G Achiuwa	PF	6-8	240	Erie CC (NY)	St. John's
Donnavan Kirk	PF	6-9	225	Miami	DePaul
Nurideen Lindsey	PG	6-4	185	Redlands CC	St. John's
Cheikh Mbodji	C	6-9	245	Grayson Cty JC	Cincinnati
Blake Nash	PG	6-0	175	Williston State	USF
Victor Rudd	SF	6-7	205	Arizona State	USF
Dominic Rutledge	PF	6-8	225	Western Texas College	WVU
Jamil Wilson	SF	6-7	220	Oregon	Marquette

Note the 2012-eligible transfers are highlighted in green. A quick check on transfers (but not JUCOs) over at College Hoops Update lists 246 outbound transfers this past spring and summer. Of that cohort, most -- but not all -- who have or will find another D1 program will sit for a season before gaining eligibility. All three listed here (Donnavan Kirk, Victor Rudd and Jamil Wilson) sat for NCAA-mandated two semesters. Donnavan Kirk should be available after DePaul's Autumn Quarter (probably for games in late December and after). The power forward took an injury-related red shirt as a freshman at Miami in 2009-10. He played 13 games for the Hurricanes in 2010-11 before transferring to the Blue Demons. With nearly a year in Coach Purnell's system even before he takes the court, the DePaul staff would have to be very happy if Kirk can develop into a Ray Sykes-type player for them. Assembling Jamil Wilson's statistics was easy, (many...) thanks to Ken Pomeroy. For Kirk and Victor Rudd however, neither logged enough minutes to show up on Pomeroy's radar (he sets a lower boundary of 10% playing time for the team for the season). I used the stats provided by the individual schools to extrapolate many of the efficiency stats. The JUCOs were more problematic, as none of their previous stops contained much by way of detailed data. Unlike prior years, I can do no better than per capita-type stats based on press releases...

		On Offense...
Player	Gms	Mins	%Min	%Shots	PPWS
Donnavan Kirk	13	124	23.1	40.6	0.95
Victor Rudd	15	93	7.0	31.1	0.93
Jamil Wilson	26	444	33.8	17.4	1.00

The percentage of minutes played for Kirk and Rudd is based on the number of games in which they appeared (Rudd logged 7% of the minutes at his position in the 15 games in which he appeared for Arizona State back in the fall of 2010). Of the three, Wilson, who eventually started 14 times in his 26 appearances while at the Eugene, Oregon school. Look for Wilson, a Wisconsin native whose single season in the Pacific Northwest left him a bit homesick, to step into Jimmy Butler's role for Marquette. Butler who was drafted in the first round of the NBA last June, left some very large shoes to fill, but Wilsom offers a slightly better three point shot than Butler who seemed at times to be more a #4 in a #3's body...

	Some Four Factors...
			FTA
Player	%Min	eFG%	FGA
Donnavan Kirk	23.1	40.6	31.3
Victor Rudd	7.0	44.4	27.8
Jamil Wilson	33.8	46.8	24.5

Granted the limited minutes played tend to skew offensive number, nevertheless Victor Rudd showed a willingness to shoot, something an offensively-starved Bulls squad certainly needs, but the 6-7 former Sun Devil will have to convert more efficiently if he is going to log significant minutes in a front court rotation that includes Toarlyn Fitzpatrick and Hugh Robertson.

	...per Game
	Pts	Reb	Ast	Stl
Blake Nash	22.3	5.6	4.5	2.3
God's Gift Achiuwa	22.3	11.7	1.3	1.3
Nurideen Lindsey	22.3	5.6	5.1	2.5
Cheikh Mbodj	15.4	7.6	1.1	0.5

All four played an entire JUCO season in 2011. For a program that returns a single rotation player from their 2011 squad, St. John's will have more than enough minutes to give to Nurideen Lindsey and God's Gift Achiuwa. The two were headliners at their respective squads. Achiuwa was in the conversation for a few Division 1 programs, but academics were a problem. Lindsey drew quite a bit of attention as a high schooler in Philadelphia's Overbrook High School, and appeared to be on track as La Salle's latest back court sensation, when academics among other distractions sent him packing for the Dakota badlands, where he toiled a season. Lindsey had choices, and decided the prospect of starting at the point for the Red Storm for the next season or two (or three) might be his best career move. Achiuwa was discovered at a camp for prospecive basketballers in Nigeria coached by Erie CC head coach Alex Nwora. His numbers look very good for a big (projected as a #4, but will probably play the #5 next season), but consider the 6-9 wide body has less than three years of organized play -- one year in the US -- under his belt. Bigs take time Red Storm fans...

Blake Nash might be the latest candidate to try out as Dominiue Jones' replacement. South Florida, held to 0.97 points per possession in conference play last season (#14 in the conference), is desparate for a consistent scorer going into this season. As Jones developed the Bulls' standing in the conference improved, and his early departure at the end of the 2010 season sent the Bulls' stock plummeting again in 2011. Coach Heath really needs an offensive spark plug. Nash's success is key to Heath's survival. Coach Mick Cronin had some success with a twin tower approach to the low post last season, playing Ibrahima Thomas and Yancy Gates in tandem to control the boards and get put backs. Thomas seemed reluctant to embrace his assigned role as banger for the Bearcats, but Cheikh Mbodji, whose JUCO coach suggests is a hybrid forward, should be able to bang down low and also step out when Gates wants to work the low post. While the Bearcats also have two freshmen and a sophomore available for duty at the foward/center spots, Mbodji insures that none of them will be thrown into the deep end too early.

But What About?
6-10 center Andre Jackson who was bound for South Florida last May does not appear on the fall roster. Jackson played six games for Lee College in Texas in 2011 and averaged (in those six games...) just over 16 points per game. No idea where he will surface next. Dominique Rutledge has enrolled at West Virginia, and the 6-8 power forward orignally out of Edison Prep in New Jersey was added in the wake of Danny Jennings' transfer to Long Beach State at the end of the 2011 season. Since high school graduation in 2008, Rutledge has logged a single full season, at Hutchinson County College in Kansas, took a red shirt year at Miami Dade Community College before landing at the intake end of one of Coach Bob Huggins' JUCO pipelines. Rutledge worked out last season with Coach Jason Sautter's Western Texas College program squad while waiting for eligibility to kick in. Sautter, who coached current West Virginia guard Casey Mitchell, filled in Huggins about Rutledge, and the 225 23 year old, classified as a junior, should have two years of eligibility remaining.

Hits and Misses...Last Season's Transfer/JUCOs
Coach Buzz Williams hit another one out of the park with Jae Crowder. The forward stepped into Lazar Hayward's spot in the lineup and despite a few rough patches, he (along with work-in-progress low post players Chris Otule and Davante Gardener) provided a solid front court that helped the Warrors run to the Sweet Sixteen for the first time in the Williams Era. Hugh Robertson started 31 of South Florida's 33 games, logging the second highest number of minutes played on the squad last season. He competed with fellow JUCOs Jawanza Poland and Shedrick Haynes (& four others) for playing time and shots in the USF back court. Robertson's offense, plagued by poor shooting, reduced him to Role Player-level in the Bulls' offense. Poland too was plagued by inconsistent shooting, but unlike Robertson who stapped back, Poland continued to fire away. Coach Heath put Poland, Robertson and two other guards, Anthony Crater and Shaun Noriega in a revolving rotation in an effort to find the hot shooter (or shooters) on any given night. Haynes packed his bags and along with sophomore guard Mike Burwell, became the latest in a growing list of players who left Coach Stan Heath's program with eligibility remaining. Haynes landed at Division 2 power Tarleton College, where he will finish his career in 2012. Ron Anderson logged 55.5% of the playing time in a front court rotation that included Gus Gilchrist and Francis Tarlyn Fitzpatrick and Jarrid Famous. Though his offensive rating declined slightly from his Kansas State days, Anderson's role did grow to a high-end Role Player. Scott Martin averaged 30 minutes per game while appearing (and starting) in 33 of Notre Dame's 34 games last season. The 6-8 forward averaged just under 10 points per game as well, three point shooting his greatest vulnerability. A very versatile player in Coach Kevin Willard's offense, Eniel Polynice, managed to play positions #1 through #4 on offense and defense at some point last season. The fifth year senior had shooting problems all season however, and was generally the fourth option on offense through much of the season. A preseason injury sidelines Rutgers guard Tyree Graham, while fifth year senior Roburt Sallie never made it to the Louisville campus (and into a Cardinal game). Sallie ran afoul of the "no comparable Masters Program" clause in the transfer rule, and was not cleared to play for Coach Pitino's team.

2012 (To) Watch Lists
Rising Seniors to Watch
Rising Juniors to Watch
Rising Sophomores to Watch

Inside-Outside in the Big East, 2011 Into 2012

Pelton vs Pomeroy And Other Issues
Keven Pelton, currently an author for The Basketball Prospectus developed the stat as a shorthand for determining where (and how often...) a player tended to take his shots, either inside or outside of the three point line. The formula,

Inside = (FTA - 3FGA) / Minutes

weighs free throw attempts against three point attempts to determine the tendency of the player, or in the case of this post the team, to take those FGAs from beyond the arc. Dividing by minutes played implicitely measures the frequency of the outside shot. I have multiplied the result by 100 to develop a more readable stat. Ken Pomeroy introduced a modified version of Pelton's stat with his 2007 Preview of the Big 12 Conference with the explanation "...Inside is a knock off of Kevin Pelton's stat which attempts to quantify where a players shots come from...". Pomeroy's formula

Inside = (FTA - 3FGA) / FGA * 100

uses the difference of free throws attempts from three point attempts as a proportion of total field goal attempts. The underlying assumption is that because perimeter-oriented teams (POTs as defined by John Gasaway) take larger proportions of their FGAs beyond the arc, they are less likely to get to the free throw line to compensate for any missed FGAs, or and ones that come as bonuses for being fouled but making the shot anyway. Teams that shoot a lot of threes do not tend to get a lot of trips to the charity stripe.

A comparison of where the team took it's shots last season with where the returning players took their shots last season should provide a hint about the basic offensive orientation of each team going into fall practice. I added the returning minutes to give the reader a sense of whether the returning contingent can be expected to replace the departed offense. A team that returns a nucleus of players whose offensive orientation is unrepresentative of the coach's historic offensive philosophy could present the coaching staff with a choice -- to adapt the offense to the strengths offered by the nucleus of returning players, or encourage the nucleus to develop the offensive skill set of the departed squad members...or hope the freshmen come through.

	Ret.	Pelton		Pomeroy
	Min%	2011	2012	2011	2012
Cincinnati	59.2	1.30	3.15	4.69	10.41
Connecticut	61.7	1.33	0.35	4.57	1.36
DePaul	73.6	1.27	3.53	4.44	11.58
Georgetown	48.5	-0.98	-2.44	-3.70	-10.67
Louisville	71.4	-3.19	-2.85	-10.82	-10.86
Marquette	62.0	5.12	4.82	18.15	16.87
Notre Dame	54.4	1.72	0.40	6.50	1.56
Pittsburgh	57.3	4.29	1.99	15.70	7.12
Providence	79.1	1.29	1.08	4.13	3.91
Rutgers	47.8	0.83	5.71	3.04	20.56
Seton Hall	46.2	-0.56	2.43	-1.90	8.40
South Florida	58.2	1.91	-0.10	7.49	-0.34
St. John's	4.8	5.37	4.10	20.08	17.33
Syracuse	81.9	1.21	-0.85	4.29	-2.98
Villanova	52.3	2.49	5.65	9.07	22.79
West Virginia	39.3	2.06	3.40	7.45	10.06

A positive number indicates the team more likely took the FGA inside the arc; a negative number indicates they more likely took the shot outside of the three point line. The greater the value, the greater the tendency for either inside or outside play. A value of 0.0 suggests the team did not prefer one over the other.

Same old, same old?
That those returning to play the 2012 season for Louisville, Marquette and Providence show about the same tendency as the 2011 squad(s) is no surprise. Each of those programs returns a substantial proportion of the minutes (and points...) from last season. The rather large change in tendency for DePaul and Syracuse (and even to some degree, Connecticut) however, suggests those squads lost influential contributors from their offensives, contributors significant enough to change the character of the squad's offense going into 2012. Those are roles that Demon, Orange and Huskie staffers are going to have to replace somehow.

Focusing on Pomeroy's Inside stat for a second, I developed a three year look (combined with the Inside stat for the returning squad members) to see if there were any trends. Do teams become more "inside" oriented or "outside" oriented over time?

	Pomeroy for...
Team	2009	2010	2011	2012
Cincinnati	-7.44	-0.77	4.69	10.41
Connecticut	22.59	22.70	4.57	1.36
DePaul	-1.35	-1.64	4.44	11.58
Georgetown	5.50	6.83	-3.70	-10.67
Louisville	-6.40	-3.93	-10.82	-10.86
Marquette	10.78	-0.21	18.15	16.87
Notre Dame	-8.45	3.64	6.50	1.56
Pittsburgh	3.41	13.63	15.70	7.12
Providence	4.32	-1.90	4.13	3.91
Rutgers	-0.17	-0.66	3.04	20.56
Seton Hall	2.32	3.51	-1.90	8.40
South Florida	12.79	18.55	7.49	-0.34
St. John's	3.13	2.13	20.08	17.33
Syracuse	6.19	5.99	4.29	-2.98
Villanova	9.94	9.43	9.07	22.79
West Virginia	1.89	4.84	7.45	10.06

The lime highlight connotes a new coach's first first year. Regime change may explain large year-to-year adjustments for Marquette and Providence when looking at the second year for Keno Davis (Providence) and Buzz Williams (Marquette).

New Coaches, New Systems?
The large swing for St. John's (+2.13 to +20.08), when combined with the very high percentage of returning minutes/scoring from 2010 to 2011 (89.5% and 91% respectively) provide more proof (on the off chance that the Johnnies' record and advancement to the NCAAs last season was not enough...) that Coach Lavin did dramatically overhaul the offense with the same nucleus as 2010. The job facing the St. John's staff for 2012 will be daunting. And ignore the projected 2012 inside stat, that is basically Malik Stith, the only returning veteran in 2012. While it is tempting to attribute Seton Hall's decisive move to the outside (+3.51 to -1.90) to the philosophy of Head Coach Kevin Willard (and I have no doubt that Willard, whose first head coaching job came at Iona of the MAAC, is a bit more perimeter oriented than his predessor), the graduation of John Garcia and Nunu Harvey, two players (one front court and one back court) who tended to take it to the rim when they wanted to score. Willard recruited Patrik Auda, who took more threes in one season than Garcia did in his career, as a front court replacement. Chalk the decisive shift inside for DePaul (-1.64 to +4.44) to a coach who would not tolorate the slew of bad habits (lazy shot selection, "me first/me next" approach to offense) the Demons have developed lately. Not to mention Coach Purnell went out and signed a very nice front court player in Cleveland Melvin who managed to score efficiently while taking just over 26% of the possessions and over 30% of the team shots when he was on the court.

To project where the Friars will find their offense I looked at Coach Ed Cooley's last three seasons at Fairfield. With each succeeding season Cooley's squads "moved inside"; the 2011 Fairfield squad had an Inside stat of 17.16, decidedly more inside than Providence's 4.13. Factor in a (much) lower pace and an uncharacteristic emphasis on defense (both hallmarks of Cooley coached Fairfield squads), and the Friar Nation is in for something completely different this winter. Let's hope the fans embrace the new look offense and playing style.

Quick Hits
Since winning the National Championship back in 2004 Connecticut became (along with Pittsburgh under Coach Jamie Dixon) one of the most "inside oriented" teams in the Big East. Last season's pronounced shift towards the "outside" was uncharacteristic of the Huskies. The additional shift to the outside shown in the returning squad members reflects the loss of Kemba Walker, who despite some prolific shooting from beyond the arc (the junior took 227 three point attempts), was primarily an inside scorer, who posted an 11.9 Inside stat (Pomeroy's inside expression). Walker's departure was partly mitigated by the loss of Jamal Coombs-McDaniel, the foward who posted a remarkable -14.7 Inside stat, despite playing the #3/#4. If freshman Andre Drummond logs a lot of playing time and has any impact on the offense (beyond rebounding), look for the Huskies to post a 2012 Inside stat closer to 20 than 0.

Don't count on Syracuse becoming a POT (Perimeter Oriented Team) this season. The shift outside no doubt the void left by Rick Jackson, but the staff will find a body to fill that (offensive) role. Notice the inside stat did not vary by much from 2009-2011. Coach Boeheim has been doing this long enough to know what he is looking for offensively, and someone or some combination of players in the front court rotation will provide that element this season.

Villanova's Inside stat has been among the most consistent in the conference from 2009-2011, even steadier than Pittsurgh's or Connecticut's (two very Inside-oriented teams). That dramatic shift to the inside reflected by the returning players? Not to worry, as the returning players for 2011 showed a similar dramatic turn to the inside. And that projected re-orientation did not come to pass, despite the fact that the incoming freshmen (James Bell and JayVaughn Pinkston) played a far smaller role in the offense than anticipated (James was injured for part of the season and Pinkston, suspended for the school year before the first tip off, saw no playing time at all). If indeed the veterans are expected to produce the outside firepower necessary to rebalance the Inside stat (back towards) 9, the responsibility will fall to Dominic Cheek and Maalik Wayns. As much as I would like to think those two can step into the role, I suspect this year's Wildcats will have to -- uncharacteristically since Scottie Reynolds' freshman years -- look to freshmen (like Archaf Yacoubou and Ty Johnson for example) to contribute early and often.

Louisville's persistent migration to the outside in the period 2009-11 is the byproduct of the loss of Samardo Samuels. Despite great reviews coming into the Cardinal program out of high school, Terrence Jennings had no significant impact. Count on a more mature Gorgui Dieng and maybe Stephen Van Tresse to help rebalance the offense.

Rising Seniors -- Eight to Watch

What I Am Looking For
Last March's "All-Big East'rs" Ashton Gibbs, Darius Odom-Johnson and Kris Joseph won't make this list. Neither will Kevin Jones or Tim Abromaitis. Everybody knows them, and everyone will have them on their "Best in" or "Top" list in the next two and a half months. The Big East coaches and AP writers will vote them to a variety of "All" preseason teams. They have already been a bullet on ESPN's "Keys to the Game" pre-game analysis, and will probably continue their bullet status this season. They made their marks during their freshmen or sophomore or junior seasons. Those "name" guys decided to come back and most will reap the rewards of returning to finish their education and eligibility. But every season a Hilton Armstrong, or an Andy Rautins, a Jon Wallace or a Dante Cunningham lands in the national press (and picks up a post season Big East award or two) seemingly out of nowhere. Invisible to many except their team's fans, these seniors tend to start somewhere back in that freshman pack, or labor in the vinyards of a low ranking team, but unlike their classmates, they (and their team?) improve quietly every season. By Pomeroy's classification system they may start as a "Role", "Limited Role" or even "Invisible" player, and grow into a "Major" player or "Go-to Guy" over the course of their four years. Pomeroy discusses growth "probabilities" in "Putting Individual Efficiency into Perspective" over at The Basketball Prospectus in 2007. These guys tend to push at the upper limit of their growth curve each season. The Jon Wallaces and Orinze Onuakus -- are drawing a good share of the minutes at their position going into their senior seasons and they are drawing somewhere between 18% - 20% of the possessions when they are on the floor. They may lurk off the MSM's radar, but their coaches and teammates know who they are, look for them on the floor...and trust them with the ball.

			On Offense...
Player	School	%Min	ORtg	%Poss	%Shot	PPWS
Jae Crowder	MU	68.8	120.1	19.8	22.6	1.13
Dion Dixon	'Nati	66.8	112.7	22.4	24.6	1.08
Chris Smith	'Ville	63.8	110.0	19.7	18.9	1.12
Yancy Gates	'Nati	67.2	108.8	22.9	24.3	1.07
Jason Clark	GTown	76.1	107.4	20.5	22.1	1.20
Nasir Robinson	Pitt	54.8	103.5	21.9	20.5	1.10
Scott Martin	NDU	73.0	101.0	18.5	20.1	1.03
Jordan Theodore	Hall	75.0	98.6	22.8	20.3	1.05

Dion Dixon fits the profile, each season (except for Lance Stevenson's single year in the Queen City...) his role with the Bearcats has grown. Securing 22.4% of the possessions and just under a quarter of the shots last season should have put Dixon on an "All" team if not for a slew of seniors (with better name recognition?) ahead of him in line. And also a Bearcat or two who drew conference and media attention. For Cincinnati to rub shoulders with the conference elites (seeds #1-#4) in 2012, Dixon and Gates (and rising sophomre Sean Kirkpatrick along with a few others...) will have to have very good seasons. And while we are in southeastern Ohio, Yancy Gates is another name that will appear on a preseason list or two. Gates, whose self-made demons held him back for a couple of seasons made significant strides last season. This time around the forward/center should do even better. vbtn is firmly in the pro-Gates Line this preseason. Marquette's Jae Crowder is another Buzz Williams JUCO/transfer the fourth year coach has a habit of pulling out of thin air (or so it seems). Two seasons of conference play may not be enough to turn heads among the conference's large media following, but every one of Marquette's conference opponents know they will have to account for him in their gameplans. Given Coach Pitino's penchant for stockpiling players are certain positions, Chris Smith has been victimized a bit by competition with rising junior Mike Mara and fellow rising senior Kyle Kuric. If Smith, whose shot and possession rates (Shot% & Poss%) are on the high side of "role player" will probably need more playing time and opportunities to score to grow into a major contributor or significant contributor level player. Preston Knowles is gone, but freshman Wayne Blackshear will press him for playing time at the #2. .

			Four Factors...
						FTA
Player	School	%Min	eFG%	OR%	TO%	FGA
Jae Crowder	MU	68.8	54.9	9.5	8.6	38.3
Dion Dixon	'Nati	66.8	49.1	5.1	13.0	38.4
Chris Smith	'Ville	63.8	53.4	6.7	18.9	33.6
Yancy Gates	'Nati	67.2	51.7	9.3	12.7	42.0
Jason Clark	GTown	76.1	57.2	4.7	21.0	25.9
Nasir Robinson	Pitt	54.8	54.8	9.5	19.8	54.3
Scott Martin	NDU	73.0	49.1	4.0	16.8	32.0
Jordan Theodore	Hall	75.0	47.5	2.6	22.4	33.6

An offensive rebounding rate of 9.3 and higher is a Top 500 ranking per Ken Pomeroy -- Gates, Crowder and Pittusburgh's small forward Nasir Robinsin are reasons their teams rank in the upper half of the conference for rebounding. Robinson's offensive rating is hurt by his turnovers (and lack of playing time due to an absent three point shot?) a byproduct of his close-to-the-basket play, but with more mobile front court mates and versatile forwards, Robinson should see more time this season. Crowder's and Gate's lack of turnovers, despite their play in the front court is encouraging, especially when considered with their offensive rebounding, each presents some strong scoring opportunities for their teams. For Jordan Theodore to garner more favorable recognition in the conference, he will need to dampen his turnover rate, as will Georgetown wing Jason Clark, whose outstanding shot efficiency (eFG% -- 57.2%) is tempered by his tendency to lose the ball.

		Miscellaneous...
Player	School	Ast%	DR%	Blk%	Stl%
Jae Crowder	MU	11.4	18.7	3.3	2.7
Dion Dixon	'Nati	15.0	8.3	0.1	2.4
Chris Smith	'Ville	18.0	13.3	0.4	2.0
Yancy Gates	'Nati	10.3	21.1	5.1	1.8
Jason Clark	GTown	11.7	11.2	0.7	2.9
Nasir Robinson	Pitt	10.5	13.7	0.4	1.2
Scott Martin	NDU	12.2	13.8	1.0	1.0
Jordan Theodore	Hall	30.4	8.6	0.2	2.5

Scott Martin had to sit a year as a Purdue transfer. The rising senior suffered an injury on the eve of the 2010 season, and came into 2011 off of a two year layover. Though he was rusty last season, as his rebounding suggested, and fitting into a rotation that had Ben Hansbrough and Tim Abromaitis available offensively no doubt limited his scoring oppportunities, Scott has another year to condition and as Hansbrough has graduated, should see a larger role in Notre Dame's offense. Theordore's assist rate is impressive and his defensive rebounding rate is not too shabby for a point guard. Now if he can get the turnovers under control and improve his shooting, the Hall will benefit immensely in conference play.

Hits & Misses...Last Year's List
Marshon Brooks exploded offensively and became one of the few bright spots (along with a win over Villanova...) in Providence's otherwise lackluster season. Brooks was named to the All-Big East First Team, along with "vbtn Watch List" mate Dwight Hardy from St. John's (who also took home the Big East's "Most Improved Player" award). Most of the Johnnies' limelight however, shone on "vbtn Watch List" member DJ Kennedy, who hit a runner at the buzzer against Pittsburgh in the Garden that put St. John's back into the Top 25 (and sealed their invitation to the Dance?). A season-ending injury three weeks later sidelined Kennedy and took a bit of wind out of the Red Storm. Rick Jackson and Brad Wannamaker made the All-Big East Second Team, with Jackson earning the "Defensive Player" award and Wannamaker honored with the conference's "Sportsmanship" award. Though Chris Wright was named to the All-Big East Third Team, the Hoyas' season sputtered at the end, giving Wright no opportunities for heriocs. The same can be said for Villanova's Antonio Pena, also named to the "vbtn Watch List". Though the bfc started the entire season, the Wildcats looked in vain for low post offense when their perimeter players were slowed (or sidelined) with nicks and dents. The Wildcats were trapped in a death spiral as the regular season slipped into the post season. Scoop Jardine decided to take all of his eligibility and return for a fifth year. Gilbert Brown had a decent season, though he did not have the breakthrough that fans predicted each of the four seasons he spent with the Panthers. Caught covering Butler's Shawn Vanzant late in their second round game, Brown could not prevent Vanzant's pass to Adam Smith whose bucket put Butler up for good, and sent Pittsburgh home in the first weekend.