On Second Thought -- Plotting Trendlines for Atlantic 10 Teams (pt 3)

Slumps and Surges...
The tie that binds the three Atlantic-10 teams featured in this post is the offensive efficiency trendline. Irrespective of where the offensive efficiency was in relation to the the defensive efficiency trendline, the team spent some part of the season "under water", only to have the offensive efficiency trendline emerge on top by the end of conference play. The conference standings/seeds for the Atlantic 10 Tournament with the featured teams highlighted:

	W	L	Pct.
Xavier	15	1	0.938
Temple	14	2	0.875
Richmond	13	3	0.813
Duquesne	10	6	0.625
George Washington	10	6	0.625
Rhode Island	9	7	0.563
St. Bonaventure	8	8	0.500
Dayton	7	9	0.438
Massachusetts	7	9	0.438
La Salle	6	10	0.375
St. Louis	6	10	0.375
Saint Joseph's	4	12	0.250
Charlotte	2	14	0.125
Fordham	1	15	0.063

As the standings above show, two of the teams posted losing records in conference play. In fact George Washington and Saint Louis were eliminated in the first round of the conference tournament and did not appear in the quarter finals in Atlantic City. Adding to George Washington's woes, the Colonials were not invited to any post season tournament either.

George Washington

The team learned how to play as the season progressed

Going into the 2011 season Coach Karl Hobbs knew he would not have the four seniors (and red shirt post grad guard Travis King) available. He could draw consolation however in a promising freshman (Nemanja Mikic), a few returning players who showed promise (Tony Taylor and David Pellom), but best of all, Lasan Kromah, the team leader for three point shooting and steals as a freshman in 2010. Kromah was named conference Rookie of the Week three times during his freshman campaign, and would surely be the offensive centerpiece for the 2011 campaign. Until he was injured in a preseason scrimmage with North Carolina State on October 30. Coach Hobbs literally had to retool the offense on the eve of the season, and that process went on for much of the 2011 campaign. Truly the proto-type of a team that got better as the season progressed, the Colonials logged a tepid 7-6 out of conference record, but managed a 5-5 record 10 games into the conference season, that 10th game was a four point loss (65-69) to Richmond on February 9. GW went 5-1 in the last six conference games, beating Rhode Island and Dayton in the process, to finish 10-6 (17-13 overall). Given the obstacles, this had to be one of Coach Hobbs' better coaching jobs, but a change in the Athletic Directorship at season's end resulted in Hobbs' termination in late April. Vermont's Mike Lonergan takes the helm of a team with experience and talent. Assuming no defections, Coach Lonergan should do well next season.

La Salle

Chemistry problems?

As the chart suggests, the Explorers dropped their first four conference games. Coach John Giannini, dissatisfied with sophomore center Aaric Murray's effort during a 26 minute stint in the conference opener at George Washington, suspended the sophomore for the second game (against Richmond), which La Salle lost by 19, 87-68. La Salle however, dropped two more conference games (interrupted by a win over Big 5 rival Penn) before they kicked off a three game winning run at Rhode Island. If Dr. Giannini's squad went 6-6 over the last 12 conference games, why the clear separation between offensive and defensive efficiencies which indicates the team operated "under water" for most of the conference season? The margin of wins and losses, coupled with the unexpected turns taken via the adjusted efficiencies explains the gap. Of their six conference wins, four were by five or less, with their wins over Massachusetts (21) and Fordham (26) at the end of the season the only double digit wins in conference play. The point margins in their 10 losses varied from -2 to -38, with half by double digits (and three by 20 or more). The wins over Massachusetts and Fordham account for the end of the season surge. The Explorers avenged their 21 point loss to St. Bonaventure with a road win in the first round of the A-10 Conference Tournament, but they lost the quarter final round to Temple by 20, 96-76 to close out their season. Aaric Murray announced his transfer on March 24, but Dr. Giannini has a number of very promising guards slated to return for the 2012 season.

Saint Louis

Another season, another unseasoned team...

Suspensions to two players just after the open of the Fall Practice dealt a blow to the Billikens' prospects in the 2011 season. Like Coach Hobbs at George Washington, Coach Rick Majerus has to retool on the fly, and St. Louis forged a lackluster 5-8 record before they began conference play. Ranked #346 among D1 programs in experience (by Ken Pomeroy) in 2010, the Bills were set to move up in 2011, but those suspensions (coupled with two off season transfers) pushed Coach Majerus' squad back down to #339 (again per Ken Pomeroy). The playing time distribution (he relied heavily on freshman guards Jordair Jett and Mike McCall, and gave freshmen center Rob Loe and wing Dwayne Evans more playing time than sophomores Cody Ellis, Cory Remekun and Christian Salecich). The efficiency trendlines are classic Majerus as tight defense and flagging offense (until the team "gets it") reflects youth on the squad. The late season "surge" was due more to several outstanding defensive outings (St. Louis held Charlotte, Duquesne and Dayton to 56 or fewer points, while an out of conference opponent, Chicago State, scored 52 points) rather than a surging offense. 2011 did not bring a repeat of the Bills' Fabulous February of 2010 (a 7-1 run to close out their A-10 slate and bring their conference record to 10-4), as they logged a 3-4 record in conference games to start March with a 5-9 conference record. For 2012, one of the suspended players will most likely return to play his senior season, but the other, along with transfer Christian Salecich, has decided to move on.

Coaching Carousal, Part 2011-03

The Tipping Point...
In the three-plus weeks since Connecticut cut down the nets and ended the 2011 season, 13 coaching positions were filled even as three more head opened up. Even more notable, of the three which opened up, two were at the initiative of the current head coach, a strong signal that the momentum in cycle has begun to wind down. Dane Fife became the latest in a growing trend of low-major coaches who abandon the first chair to take an assistant job at a high-major when he left IPFW for a spot on Tom Izzo's staff at Michigan State. 25 years old when tabbed to lead the then independent IPFW in 2005, Fife led the Mastodons into the Summit League in his third season at the helm. A historic 0.218 program after three Division 1 seasons, Fife led IPFW to a 0.357 winning percentage his first season (12-18), and bettered that mark in each of his next five. The Mastodons logged an 18-12 record (0.600) last season and perhaps Fife felt it was time to move on. Division 2 (and lower level) head coaches traditionally take assistant positions to move up the ladder, have successful head coaches voluntarily leave their positions to take assistant jobs may be another piece in a growing body of evidence of the gap between BCS-level programs and nonBCS-level programs.

The timestamp on Dana O'Neil's ESPN feature, "Old Coaching Assumption Fading", was barely 10 days old when Jim Larranaga, cited by O'Neil as an early trend-setter, exchanged the familiar surroundings of the program he built at George Mason to lead Miami and work in the ACC on April 23. Put O'Neil at the end of a line of disappointed observers that no doublt includes Providence (Larranaga's alma mater, twice rebuffed when they came to court after his 2006 Final Four run) AD Bob Driscoll and anyone who bet money that Kansas State's Frank Martin would suceed the departed Frank Haith as the Hurricanes' most likely next coach (not to mention Martin himself perhaps?).

Only Karl Hobbs, the George Washington University head coach dismissed unexpectedly on April 25, was an employer-initiated move. The circumstances of Hobbs' dismissal were typical of a post season evaluation, and so seemed strange coming more than a month after the GWU men played their last basketball game. That Hobbs was fired by Patrick Nero less than a week after Nero was designated the successor to Athletic Director Jack Kvancz, and more than eight weeks before Nero will take up the day-to-day duties as AD, strongly hints that Nero's first personnel move was decided before he was hired, and therefore by others in the GWU administration. Why the quick trigger for Hobbs? The key may well be Jim Larranaga's move to Miami -- Vermont head coach Mike Lonergan has been featured prominently on George Mason Athletic Director Tom O'Connor's short list. Nero, whose previous job was Commissioner of the American East Conference -- of which Vermont is a member -- may emerge as the point man to bring Lonergan to Foggy Bottom. Should Lonergan prove to be the target for both programs (other overlapping targets for those two include Jeff Capel, released in March from Oklahoma), the 2011 edition of the Coaching Carousal may have a bidding war should both programs go full bore for either Capel or Lonergan. Andy Katz may believe that George Mason is the better situation, but as a member in the best non-BCS conference (the A-10) in Division 1, a renovated arena in the nation's capital and access to a top 10 media market and a few good coaches in the past two decades (Tom Penders, Mike Jarvis) George Washington can offer a higher profile.

Best Hires? Worst Hires?!
If the talking heads have no clear favorite for "Best Hire" (Ed Cooley to Providence, Sidney Johnson to Fairfield and Cuonzo Martin to Tennessee are drawing most of the approving nods...), a (negative) consensus is about Frank Haith, Missouri's choice to succeed the departed (for Arkansas) Mike Anderson. Adapting Dan Hanner's efficiency margin comparison method for the two coaches, even as we allow for different schools and conferences, might give us a hint at expectations for the Missouri fan-base...

	Average Adj.
Coach	Offense	Defense	Diff.
Anderson, Mizzou 2007-11	113.6	92.7	+20.8
Haith, Miami 2007-11	112.5	96.7	+15.8

While Anderson appears to have the edge (good news for the Arkansas fan-base?), Haith does not appear to be an unreasonable choice. A comparison of styles (using Ken Pomeroy's coaching resume feature) can perhaps give Missouri fans an idea of what to expect...

			Offense
Coach	Year	Pace	eFG%	OR%	TO%	FTRATE
Mike Anderson, Missouri	2009	71.3	52.8	34.3	16.0	36.6
Frank Haith, Miami	2008	67.4	49.2	36.1	19.0	39.1

Anderson's version of "40 Minutes of..." is much in evidence at Mizzou, and Arkansas fans, who enjoyed three Final Fours, including a National Championship under Anderson's mentor Nolan Richardson, should recognize (and appreciate) the style. Haith ran a more deliberate offense, that compensated for less efficient shot (fewer transition points most likely) converson (and a slightly higher turnover rate) with more aggressive offensive rebounding and lane work (the 'Canes got to the line more).

	Defense
Coach	eFG%	OR%	TO%	FTRATE
Anderson, Missouri	46.4	34.5	24.8	39.9
Haith, Miami	47.0	34.2	20.3	35.4

The defensive snapshot of their "best" season suggests that Anderson's defense was more aggressive (note the turnover rate and free throw rate, both higher than Haith's Miami squad, and frankly much higher than the Division 1 average). Neither squad excelled at rebounding, and were about the same for shot defense as well (Haith's squad was ranked #47 in 2008, Anderson's #53 in 2009). Both coaches seemed to favor guards and 'tweener type wing players, and Haith should find a familiar skill set on the Missouri squad next season. Missouri's playing style next season will be more deliberate than Mizzou saw under Anderson, but with a similar set of players, Haith should be able to make his system work (or not...) fairly early next season.


By the Numbers...
In the last Coaching Carousal post I suggested a floor of about 40 vacancies in this cycle. The total to date (fall practice to today) is 46. If the cycles over the last four off seasons is a good indication, the ceiling will probably be around 50 (48-53), as those unforeseen circumstances ("The things we know we don't know...") will acount for another 1 - 7 vacancies after the Spring signing period. The spate of coaching carousal articles this week (see Davis over at SI, Katz at ESPN for example...) hint that the cycle is winding down, yet in seasons past -- even setting aside 2009 (a very unusual off season for coaching changes) -- the cycle has continued into July and even into late August once or twice. The cycle picked up quickly between the end of the regular season and Selection Sunday, and spiked dramatically during the NCAA tournament. The NCAA Tournament is always the peak, but the period between the end of the tournament and the close of the spring signing period (the third week in May) is often as busy as the period between the end of the regular season and Selection Sunday. The average number of vacancies per season (season opening to fall practice of the following year) over the period 2000-2010 is 47.8 -- clearly the 46 vacancies to date means this season will, at worst be an "average" year in the cycle.

A Smaller Turnover in the post Tournament Period?
If the post tournament period period seems less hectic, consider that at this point in the cycle vacancies are created less from ADs firing coaches and more from coaches switching positions. The "fuel" that drives the carousal after the NCAAs is generally provided by the coaching fraternity, and indeed the coaches do account for 66% of the new vacancies since the crowning of the National Champions. BCS vacancies typically drive the carousal by triggering a chain reaction of coaching searches to replace coaches who move up the Division 1 food chain. Of the eight 2011 BCS coaching vacancies (Arkansas, Georgia Tech, Miami-FL, Missouri, North Carolina State, Oklahoma, Providence and Texas Tech), two (NCSU & Texas Tech) were filled by currently unemployed ex-coaches (Mark Gottfried and Billy Gillispie respectively), three (Georgia Tech, Oklahoma and Providence) were filled by low/mid-major coaches whose departure triggered at most one other vacancy (Providence <-- Fairfield <-- Princeton), while the remaining three (Arkansas, Missouri and Miami) were part of the same chain reaction, initiated when Arkansas fired John Pelphrey on March 13 (Arkansas <-- Missouri <-- Miami <-- George Mason...for now). Given the pool of candidates George Washington and George Mason have to work with (compete over), expect no more than two additonal vacancies to be opened from their searches.