Providence Post Game -- Pace

A trip to Friartown and a game at the Dunkin Donuts Center has always been an honest barometer for the Wildcats. If they can play the Friars there without losing focus, not to mention the game, I have taken as a good sign. The team is making progress. The 'Cats won last night, 94-91 in one of those games that had a strange rhythm throughout. In an earlier season (2002 perhaps?) the 'Cats would have lost that game. In an earlier game this season, the Wildcats did struggle at the line late, not quite able to put an opponent away. Not last night. Faced with that sense of inevitability one feels when an opponent heaves a prayer from 3 feet this side of the midcourt line that hits nothing but net, and then follows with a rebound that pops out of your best rebounder's hands with a half dribble out the arc, barely square to the basket with another heave that falls, the 'Cats exhaled, and then hit the free throws they had to. The official website has the usual AP wire story & the official box score. The breakdown by halves...

Opponent	Providence
	1st	2nd	Game
Pace	41.2	42.8	84.0
	Offense				Defense
	1st	2nd	Game		1st	2nd	Game
Rating	118.9	105.2	112.0		82.5	133.3	108.4
eFG%	60.0	40.9	50.7		44.8	56.3	51.4
TORate	21.8	23.4	22.6		29.1	14.0	21.4
OR%	40.0	54.5	47.6		30.0	38.5	34.8
FTA/FGA	31.4	66.7	48.5		44.8	42.5	43.5
FTM/FGA	20.0	54.5	36.8		27.6	30.0	29.0
ARate	35.3	38.5	36.7		50.0	47.1	48.1
Blk%	2.9	6.1	4.4		0.0	2.5	1.4
Stl%	9.7	16.9	13.3		19.4	2.3	10.6
PPWS	1.22	1.04	1.12		0.97	1.19	1.09

Half Time Adjustments...
The first half went according to script. As the table above suggests, Nova's offensive efficiency was 118.5, above their adjusted efficiency (111.5), even as their defensive efficiency, 82.5, bettered their season adjusted efficiency (87.3). The first half was a series of three runs, two by the 'Cats that served as bookends to a run by the Friars. Scottie Reynolds fueled the first spurt, a 12-2 run that put the 'Cats up by 10. The Friars stormed back with an 18-8 run that knotted the game at 20 somewhere around the 8:37 mark. The 'Cats responded with one last 29-14 run to take a 15 point (49-34) lead into the locker room. That last run was sparked by consecutive 3 point conversions by spark plug Dwayne Anderson, who stroked a third 3 later in the run. Unlike the first run, 4 players contributed points in ways that highlighted the squad's offensive potential. The first half pace, 41.2, was unusually high, possibly the highest number of possessions in a half this season. VMI and North Carolina play at that pace.

While the 'Cats were able to push the scoring differential out to 19/20 twice during the 2nd half (at the 14:00 mark and later at the 11:00 mark), the Friar's guard corp, Jeff Xavier, Weyinmi Efejuku, Marshon Brooks, Brian McKenzie and Sharaud Curry unleashed a barrage of 3 point attempts (24!), an uncomfortably large number of which (11) found the net. The preview posted earlier this week noted that shooting efficiency (eFG%) and offensive rebounding rates (OR%) might serve as keys to a win (or loss). The red & green highlighted sections in the table (above) monitor how well Villanova performed in those categories, relative to season-long numbers. The sea of red that covers virtually every defensive category in the 2nd half bears testament to Nova's need for improvement, particularly 3 point defense and forcing turnovers. Coming into the game Providence was the #58 ranked team for offensive efficiency (per Ken Pomeroy's Stats Page) with a rating of 108.4 (raw) and 109.3 (adjusted). The Friars played offense to their efficiency, largely by converting 3FGMs and a great 2nd half effort on the boards. 133.3 is not the Wildcat's worst half of defense this season by the way -- that honor goes to the 1st half of the UConn game (not obvious because the 'Cats also posted one of their best offensive halves, making the effort a wash).

Notes
1. Scottie Reynolds broke out of his offensive slump, posting an eFG% of 50.0 and a PPWS of 1.23, while scoring 31 points in 35 minutes of play. Scottie lived at the line in the 2nd half, hitting 10 of 11 FTAs to seal the win. Putting the ball in his hands for the Wildcat's last possessions has become the strategy in games of 3 or less possessions. He forces a Hobbsian on Nova's opponents -- foul him and virtually concede the 2 points, or guard him closely as the clock winds down and make him force the play. Largely unrecognized was Scottie's contribution on the offensive boards, where he grabbed a very impressive 10.2% of the OBoards when he was on the court.
2. Dwayne Anderson recorded his first double-double of the season as he scored a season high 19 points to go with his 10 (3-7-10) rebounds. Dwayne uncharacteristically took 4 of his 11 FGAs as 3s, going 3-3 on 3s in the first half. Anderson came to Villanova with the reputation as a 3 point shooter, but had dialed that back last season to concentrate on rebounding and defense (and scoring inside the arc).
3. Dante Cunningham logged his 7th double-double of the season, going 5-5 from the field on his way to a 12 point, 11 (4-7-11) rebound night. Dante's efficiencies, eFG% (100.0) and PPWS (1.63 -- his 2nd highest of the season) are again very impressive. Cunningham took only 8.7% of the team's FGAs when he was on the floor (85% of the game). I am not sure why his teammates did not look for him more, though the 'Cats unusually low assist rate (36.7 for the game), coupled with a very high turnover rate (23.4 in the 2nd half), suggest the Friar made denying an entry pass to the low post a priority. Dante was whistled for 4 fouls, breaking his streak of 4 consecutive halves without a foul.
4. Corey Fisher is becoming an impact player for the 'Cats. Corey F logged only 16 minutes before fouling out, but took 36.8% of the team's FGAs during that period, scoring 12 points on 5-10 (1-4, 4-6, 1-1) shooting. Fisher was both prolific and efficient, posting an eFG% of 55.0 & a PPWS of 1.15. This was the second (of nine) Big East games that Corey F has fouled out of, the third in which he has been whistled for 4 or more fouls.
5. Reggie Redding posted his 2nd double-double of the season, on a quiet 12 points, complements of 6-11 (0-3, 6-8, 0-0) shooting and 11 (4-7-11) rebounds.
6. The offense, based on Shot%, appears to have gone through Fisher, Reynolds and Stokes. Reynolds and Fisher had relatively efficient nights, and were backed by a 2nd wave of scorers -- Dwayne Anderson and Reggie Redding.

Ref Notes
The crew was manned by veterans Tim Higgins, Ed Hightower and Paul Janssen. This was Hightower and Janssen's first Wildcat game this season. The game was physical, with a total of 50 fouls (24 against Nova, 26 against Providence) called. The number called against the Friars was more than the average called on Nova's away opponents and the 'Cats did get to the line more (above the standard deviation) than usual for an away game. The number of points scored at the line was, however, consistent with the proportion of points free throw shooting typically contributes to Nova's point total.

Other recaps/analysis
IBBW has posted 2 recap/reaction pieces and a highlight clip. (Good work Chris).
VUhoops.com posted a recap.

Preview -- Providence, the First Game

The Providence Friars will try to bounce back when they host the Wildcats Wedensday in the Dunkin Donuts Center in Providence, Rhode Island. The Wildcats & Friars continue a series that predates the Big East, going back to 1936. They have played 82 games over the past 73 years, Nova holding a 48-34 advantage. Villanova rides the wave of a 3 game winning streak...

Common Opponents, Good Wins, Bad Losses...
The 'Cats and Friars have 6 common opponents so far, Rhode Island was their lone OOC opponent, and the Big East conference schedule has supplied the other 5 (St. John's, UConn, Marquette, Cincinnati and Seton Hall):

	Nova		PC
Opponent	W/L	Diff.	W/L	Diff.
Rhode Island	W (N)	+13	W (H)	+1
Marquette	L (A)	-7	L (H)	-9
St. John's	W (H)	+19	W (H)	+21
Seton Hall	W (A)	(OT)+4	W (A)	(OT)+5
Connecticut	L (A)	-6	L (A)	-33
Cincinnati	W (H)	+21	W (H)	+9
Cincinnati			W (A)	+8

Providence (Big East, 14-7, 6-3, RPI #63) has had a few notably good wins, their best versus Syracuse (Big East 16-5, 5-4, RPI #24). All of their 7 losses have been to teams ranked #55 or higher. The most damaging loss to date was a 4 point home loss to Northeastern (CAA, 15-6, RPI #55) in their season opener...

Lineups, Rotations...
...First year Coach Keno Davis inherited an upper classmen dominated squad and has opted to work that group at every opportunity. He fixed on his starting lineup early and allocates to them between 68% and 72% of the PT.

In the front court expect to see senior forward Geoff McDermott (6-8, 235lbs) start beside fellow senior Jon Kale (6-8, 245lbs). McDermontt is a pass-first forward who prefers to set up shop on the perimeter and set up a teammate to score. When Coach Davis goes to his bench he will most likely bring in either senior #4/#5 Randall Hanke (6-11, 245lbs) or sophomore Alex Kellogg (6-7, 225lbs). McDermott, Kale and Hanke are well regarded rebounders, with McDermott ranked among Ken Pomeroy's Top 100 defensive rebounders, and Hanke ranked among Pomeroy's Top 100 offensive rebounders.

Coach Davis has installed a three guard attack, drawing again on the most experienced elements of the squad. Expect seniors Weyinmi Efejuku (6-5, 210lbs) and transfer Jeff Xavier (6-1, 185lbs) to start as off guards. Efejuku and Xavier form an inside/outside combination, with Xavier preferring a 3FGA (he hits at about a 35% rate) while Efejuku takes it inside, where he scores at about a 51.4% clip, but more importantly, gets to the line about once every 3 FGAs (that is about the same rate as a forward). Red shirt junior Sharaud Curry (5-10, 170lbs) will start at the point. Labeled a "Role Player" by Ken Pomeroy's system (see his Team Page) Curry is a consistent, though not prolific, shooter who looks for the open man -- he is ranked in Ken Pomeroy's Top 200 for assists per possession. Curry took a red shirt last season, and the team struggled with Xavier unexpectedly manning the point (and McDermott functioning as a point forward). Coach Davis has options to maintain the high game pace his Friars run. He will look to sophomore guard Marshon Brooks (6-5, l90bs) and junior Brian McKenzie (6-4, 205lbs) to come in a keep shooting/scoring. Both have logged just over 50% of the available for their positions. Brooks is the more efficient scorer and tends to limit his turnovers, but McKenzie has great range and is the better free throw shooter.

Dante Cunningham, Dwayne Anderson, Reggie Redding and Scottie Reynolds will start for the Wildcats. Antonio Pena usually starts, but his spot went to Shane Clark, making his first start this season, in the Wildcat's last game (Cincinnati). No matter who takes the last spot, the other will most likely see playing time. When Coach Wright looks for relief, he will turn to the Coreys (Fisher or Stokes). Cunningham has gone nearly two full games without be whistled for a foul (hopefully I did not jinx him here...), but if fouls become a front court issue, expect to see senior Frank Tchuisi be called on for spot duty.

By the Numbers, Offense & Defense...
Coach Davis kicked Tim Welsh's uptempo game up a notch as Providence plays for about 72 possessions, more than the rest of the conference. Their (adjusted) offensive/defensive rating, 109.3/97.7 suggests they, like South Florida, play pretty good offense and pretty "average" defense. A look at the "numbers underneath" give us an idea of how they do it.

When Providence has the ball...
				FTA
	eFG%	TO%	OR%	FGA
Friar O	51.3	18.9	37.9	37.2
Wildcat D	44.4	22.3	30.3	36.6

The Wildcat's shot defense will be put to the test yet again. Providence is ranked in the top 1/3 of D1 for shot efficiency, but they do a much better job hitting 2FGAs rather than 3FGAs. They do take 36% of their FGAs from beyond the arc however, so expect them to shoot away in the Dunk. Nova's OR% has declined over the past 3-4 games, according to Ken Pomeroy's Scouting Report (rank declined to #90), while Providence is another team that rebounds their misses well. The rebounding numbers, especially Nova's defensive rebounds will most likely be a sensitive number. The Friars distribute the scoring opportunities among Efejuku and Xavier from the starting lineup, but Hanke and Brooks will get more scoring opportunities when they are in. Both Brooks and Hanke are more efficient than Efejuku and Xavier, though those two play fewer minutes. Brooks only very slightly favors 2FGAs over 3FGAs; he will most likely draw Redding when the two are on the court. Hanke shoots 2s and does it very efficiently, much as he did two seasons ago, when much of his scoring came on putbacks. His biggest improvement this season has been on defense, emerging as one of Pomeroy's top 500 defensive rebounders. The "Four Factors" look at Villanova's offense versus PC's defense:

When Villanova has the ball...
				FTA
	eFG%	TO%	OR%	FGA
Wildcat O	50.7	18.6	36.1	43.2
Friar D	49.9	21.1	35.4	29.4

Nova should have a good night from the field as Providence is not defended the shot well lately. No doubt the level of competition has played a role, but the Friars are most deficient on interior defense, allowing opponents to hit 50.1% of their FGAs. Nova takes 69.5% of their FGAs inside the arc, hitting about 49.1% of the time, so this should be a good test for both squads. Rebounding under Villanova's boards seems to be pretty evenly matched. If second chance points become very significant how those matchups resolve may turn the game. Villanova likes to get to the line, nearly 1 in 4 points comes from free throws; Providence by contrast does a good job keeping opponents off the line...

Want to Beat the Friars? Then...
Shooting dominates as a critical factor for both squads. But for Villanova, effectively limiting opponent's second chance points is becoming an important key as well. Both teams appear to have difficulty winning when the pace rises to 71 or higher.
1. Defend their shooting -- When the Friar's eFG% was 50.0 or lower they were 4-5. When they were held to 44.7 or less they went 1-3.
2. Hit your shots -- Villanova's eFG% for the last 3 games has been 49.0 or higher. When the conversion rate has been that high, Providence's record is 7-7. Nova's record when they have converted at 49.0 or better is 12-1.
3. Limit their 2nd chances -- The Friars rebound about 38.0% of their misses. When Nova allows an OR% that high they have gone 1-3. Providence is 7-4 when they have been held to that rebounding rate or lower.

Finally...
...Coach Davis has gotten a senior-led squad off to a fast start in the Big East this season. A new coach, a new season, a new beginning. Perhaps. But Providence is coming off a 33 point spanking at the hands of #1 ranked Connecticut and Coach Davis' ability to remotivate his veterans will be tested.

According to calculations, this game should go for about 71 possessions, with the 'Cats taking a 5 point decision. If the possessions are that high, look for both teams to struggle, as Nova's record when the pace is that high is 3-3, while Providence, which has played 13 games with the pace > 70 is 7-6. I suspect that the 'Cats will want to see that a possession or two lower.

All Big East Team Candidates -- Last Hurrah?

When I went through each Big East team's OOC stats during Christmas week I was looking for candidates for the post season All-Big East teams (in part anyway, I also just wanted to see who was having a good season so far). I confess I came up with a list of about 28 -- and that did not include freshmen nor the eleven who were named to the preseason list. Maybe it is my imagination, but I believe there have been an awful lot of very good performances in the conference so far this season. I decided, rather than dumping a table of 28 names with accompanying statistics into a single post, to break the pool down by common factors and similar prospects, etc. The first group ("The Most Likely To..." cohort) was posted yesterday. Over the next few days I would like to look at former All Big East Rookies and a mixed group of (except by their fans) overlooked sophomores and juniors (and a senior transfer).

Senior Leadership & Maturity...
While anything is possible, these five face fairly long odds on making the All-Big East First Team (status quo ante for the preseason team members). They are having terrific seasons so far however, and for several of them there is a scenario or two that, if played out, might land one or more on that First Team. As it is now, they present very strong credentials for the Second/Third Teams.

								FTA	FTM
Player	Coll	Pos.	Class	Min%	Shot%	eFG%	PPWS	FGA	FGA
Wesley Matthews	MU	G/F	Sr	77.5	25.3	54.3	1.28	84.4	70.3
Weyinmi Efejuku	PC	G	Sr	69.8	25.1	57.8	1.24	32.2	27.8
Ryan Ayers	NDU	F	Sr	72.0	21.4	61.4	1.24	9.1	6.4
Alex Ruoff	WVU	G	Sr	71.7	25.2	59.8	1.23	26.0	18.7
Dominic James	MU	G	Sr	72.9	20.5	50.0	1.01	38.4	19.6

The players were sorted by PPWS (points divided by FGAs and FTAs, see John Gasaway's Big Ten Wonk post for a more detailed explanation), as an indication of efficiently the player posts points/scores when he has the ball, and then by Shot% (for an indication on the player's offensive role). Note that all of the players are logging 70% or more of the playing time, so the player's role and value are well established (there are a good many senior riding the pine -- the conference is that good). James was on the All-Rookie team and has annual appearances on the First or Second Teams his sophomore and junior seasons.

A Few Words About Each...
Wes Matthews...the third of Marquette's three "Golden Guards" and according to the fans, the late bloomer. As each of McNeal and James have had their time in the spotlight, this is supposed to be Matthew's time in the sun. And so far he is doing his best to live up to the billing. Best games so far include a 30 point night against Tennessee which included 18 trips to the charity stripe (he hit 15-18) and a 28 point night against Dayton (also a Marquette loss) in which he shot 14-17 from the free throw line. In Marquette's two Big East games Matthews has scored 36 points on 9-16 (3-5), 15-18 shooting. Two players (much less three) from the same team may be improbable, but if McNeal wins conference POY and Marquette finishes very strong (seeded #2 or #3 for example -- above where most anticipate they will finish), the voters may be sufficiently impressed to give a second Marquette guard the nod. In any event, if Matthews continues to post those numbers throughout conference play the Golden Eagles should grab a very good seed in the NCAAs.
Weyinmi Efejuku...a prolific but streaky scorer with a reputation for being very, very good or very, very bad. Efejuku entered with another heralded freshman class that included wing/forward Geoff McDermott, Jon Kale and point guard Sharaud Curry. McDermott seems to have played injured for 3+ seasons, logging some nice offensive numbers early in his career, but more content to play point forward last season and so far this season. Curry was a red shirt last season, and that leaves Efejuku and Kale to make this season their last hurrah. Kale is posting better numbers this season, but Keeno Davis' offensive systems seems to suit Efejuku to a "T", as he has moved inside just a bit and hit 61% of his 2s through the OOC. His best games so far include 21 points against Rhode Island on 8-14 (1-4), 4-4 shooting (his eFG% was 60.7) and and 18 points against Jackson State on 6-7 (0-1), 6-6 shooting. Through two Big East games Efejuku has scored 26 points on 9-18 (6-10), 2-2 shooting.
Ryan Ayers...spent most of his career in Rob Kurz's shadow. This season he has stepped into Kurz's starting spot, and on a team that has both Luke Harangody and Kyle McAlarney (and only one basketball...) Ayers has done well getting his touches (about 15% of the possessions and 20% of the shots as of 1/1/09). No mean feat. I don't see him getting to the 1st team, but if Notre Dame puts another top quartile season together Ayers has a great chance for some 2nd/3rd team recognition. His best games so far include a 35 point night against South Dakota State (12-20, 9-14, 2-2) and a 19 point effort against Furman (8-13, 3-6, 0-0). Through two Big East games Ayers has scored 16 points on 6-13 (4-11, 0-0) shooting.
Alex Ruoff...has picked up Joe Alexander's scoring responsibilities at West Virginia. Both he and Alexander red shirted at one point, but Ruoff fit into Beilein's offensive schemes while Alexander struggled. Last season working with Huggin's offense Alexander blossomed and Ruoff seemed to struggle as he looked for his role. Ruoff has had a number of impressive games so far, including the night he torched Radford for 38 points in 37 minutes. He also logged a 25 point game against Delaware State, and a 17 point game against Ohio State. In the Mountaineers lone Big East game so far against the Hall Ruoff posted an 18 point effort (4-6, 2-4, 8-8).
Dominic James...was the first of Marquette's guards to spend time in the limelight. James was named to the Big East All-Rookie team and was touted for the NBA pretty consistently through his first two seasons. His shot has been a bit inconsistent last season, while this season he seems more focused. Maybe he will recapure enough of the excitement from his freshman year to boost his prospects at the next level. Good enough, and respected enough to make one of the "All" teams this post season. Some of his best efforts this season include an 18 point, 6 assist night against the NC State Wolfpack, a 16 point, 8 assist effort against Wisconsin-Milwaukee and a 15 point, 5 assist night versus Central Michigan. In two Big East games James has scored 26 points on 9-24 (5-16, 8-12) to go with 7 assists.