Showing posts with label Junior Cadougan. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Junior Cadougan. Show all posts

Sunday, March 6, 2011

Marquette at Seton Hall: Senior Night at the Rock



Questions & Answers...
The 8,347 fans, largely Seton Hall faithful, who turned out to see Jeremy Hazell's last game at the Rock were expectant. The Pirates had stunned the Johnnies on Thursday night with an 84-70 upset, putting the Red Storm's bye seed to the Big East Tournament in doubt; the fans sensed what this squad could do, had come so close to doing all season long. Without their gunner they had rocked Dayton and Richmond for a half, but the shallow bench and inexperience had cost them in the end as their opponents had patiently chipped away and finally broken through at the end. They had stunned St. John's. Could they do it again...do it consistently? Saturday night at the Rock the Pirates came out shooting, and they did not stop all game long. They hit more threes than they had before in conference play; they sunk just enough free throws to keep their cushion. After stunning the Marquette team with a 20-8 run to start the game, the Pirates survived the see-saw of the last 32 minutes of play to secure their 85-72 win over Marquette.

The Warriors needed this win very, very much. Securing a #10 seed and stepping over the staggering Villanova Wildcats was only the most immediate benefit accrued by a win. The longer term goal was to limit the latest losing streak, started Wednesday night against Cincinnati in their own Senior Night, and to show the NCAA Selection Committee that they would not wilt at the end of the season. They left perhaps with fewer answers than when they arrived. Porous shot defense, a flaw that has sabotaged their efforts in their games with Pittsburgh, Louisville, their first games with Notre Dame & Connecticut, Georgetown and St. John's seemed to be "solved" in their three game run that included strong wins over Connecticut (in Storrs) and Providence was back again against the Hall. The first half in particular was damaging. The Pirates were able to set screens for Jeff Robinson and Jeremy Hazell that their Marquette defenders could not run through. Time and again Jordan Theodore was able to drive the lane and draw Robinson's defender off of the senior wing. With enough separation Robinson was able to take the pass, set his feet and shoot. The Pirates' 61.8% completion rate from beyond the arc was equivalent to hitting 92.7% of their two point attempts. Fatal.

The breakdown by halves...

 1st2ndGame 
Pace32.934.867.7
 Seton Hall Marquette
1st2ndGame 1st2ndGame
Rating148.8103.5125.5106.3106.4106.3
eFG%70.344.760.847.950.049.0
TORate6.123.015.420.818.920.7
OR%35.335.735.533.327.830.3
FTA/FGA28.1115.860.866.753.659.6
FTM/FGA12.5100.045.150.032.140.4
ARate76.537.564.066.733.347.6
Blk%4.25.97.812.53.67.7
Stl%0.03.13.18.910.89.9
PPWS1.351.221.291.111.051.08
2FG%42.943.843.333.344.440.0
3FG%61.133.357.141.740.040.9
FT%44.486.474.275.060.067.7
%2FG24.538.930.622.943.233.3
%3FG67.38.342.442.932.437.5
%FT8.252.827.134.324.329.2

The pace was one both squads could live with, though it seemed as if Seton Hall marginally benefited with a 4-2 scoring advantage on fast breaks. The pace was deceiving, as play stopped frequently for video reviews, foul calls and foul stoppages that became timeouts.

Halftime Adjustments
Seton Hall held a clear, 14 point advantage going into the intermission. By virtue of their torrid shooting spree, combined with a two turnover (versus seven for Marquette) half, the Pirates held a significant 32-24 field goal attempted advantage over Marquette. With the eight additional FGAs, the Hall was able to tease a 17-9 shot conversion advantage over the Golden Eagles, and a shocking 11-18 conversion rate for three point attempts. The Warriors played from behind from the opening tip, and never once held a lead.

Notes and Observations
1. There were 22 total fouls called in the first half alone, with Seton Hall allocated the large portion of the calls. Five Hall players had at least two fouls, including starters Hazell and Herb Pope. Two Pirates, starter Jeff Robinson and bench center Aaron Geramipoor holding three fouls before the intermission. Willard was gambling on Robinson, and the senior forward was called for a cheapie (tangled arms) with just over a minute to go in the half. The second half was even worse, with the team racking up a stunning 53 total fouls. Marquette's strategy was apparent; down by double digits for most of the game, they had to foul to regain possession. The strategy, one that had worked in the Dayton and Richmond games (and others no doubt), failed tonight because the Hall players hit enough free throws in the second half (19-22 0.864) to make the trade-off prohibitive. Robinson scored nine points in seven minutes of first half play. He picked up foul #4 15 seconds into the second half and logged only another seven minutes in that half as well. Geramipoor played a total of 13 minutes, took no shots from the field, went 0-4 from the charity stripe and committed a single turnover in 13 minutes of play.
2. The Hall got quality minutes out of both Geramipoor and Patrik Auda, two freshman forwards whose play to date has not earned them vast amounts of playing time this season. Auda in particular scored 10 points, going 3-4 from three point land and picking up an additional point at the free throw line.
3. Marquette's point guard Junior Cadougan struggled for large portions of the game. The red shirt sophomore had three assists offset by three turnovers, shot 2-6 from the field (no three pointers). Coach Buzz Williams substituted freshman Vander Blue in several times, the most critical portion of his playing time came late in the second half, when Blue had to deal with a rare Pirate press. Robinson guarded the inbounder Blue, and taunted him relentlessly. The strategy worked, as Blue became so rattled that he threw the pass away at one point. Odd coaching decision at that critical juncture of the game.
4. Marquette coach Buzz Williams took over an hour to "meet the press". The Rock has one of the larger, more accessable press lounges in the conference, yet despite Willard's eight minute stint before the assembled ink and elecronic media, the Marquette coach took over an hour to emerge and give an impromptu interview outside the Marquette locker room. When he emerged, it was clear he had showered and exchanged his suit and tie for a pair of sweats. A St. Benedict's player waited patiently with the press. When Williams emerged, he embraced the player and they talked for several minutes before the coach turned to engage the few media people left (a fraction of the number who covered the game).

Because This is a Villanova Blog...
Despite losing by 10 to Pittsburgh, Marquette's loss gives the BET's #10 seed to Villanova. The Wildcats face South Florida Tuesday at Madison Square Garden.

Numbers...Next...
Seton Hall finishes the regular season at 13-17, 7-11 in conference play. The Pirates, the #12 seed, will play #13 seed Rutgers Tuesday at 2:00pm. This is the rubber game for 2011. The teams boast records of 1-1 against each other. Marquette which finished the regular season with an 18-13 overall record and a 9-9 record in conference play, draws the #11 seed to the BET, and will play #14 Providence at 9:00pm Tuesday night.

Saturday, February 6, 2010

The Big East -- What Pythagoras Sees at the 53.5% Mark

About Halfway Home
One of the more interesting things I discovered when playing with the conference scoring differentials ("Points For" and "Points Against") raw offensive and defensive ratings (PPP differentials) a few years ago is that both yield the same Pythagorean Winning Percentage for a team. And they should, as the offensive and defensive ratings are indirectly tied to points scored, both for and against. This can be a nice shorthand method for computing the Pythagorean Winning Percentage without having to go back and look up game scores.

The conference season is just about five weeks old, with 53.5% of the games in the book. The schedules may not be completely balanced (Villanova is just now approaching the toughest stretch of it's schedule), enough games have been played to pause and take a look at the state of the conference, and speculate a bit on what may lie ahead. I have produced below the conference record to date (through 2/5/2010), along with offensive and defensive ratings (points per 100 possessions), with calculated Pythagorean Winning Percentages and a projected (more on that later).

Act. Rec.RatingPythag.Proj. Rec.
TeamWLPct.Off.Def.Win%WL
West Virginia720.778114.897.60.866153
Villanova901.000118.5102.10.847153
Syracuse910.900109.497.00.798144
Marquette550.500111.4102.80.716135
Louisville540.556114.1105.40.713135
Georgetown640.600108.4101.90.669126
Pittsburgh640.600104.1103.00.530108
Notre Dame550.500112.0112.10.49999
Connecticut360.33399.6100.80.466810
Cincinnati550.500102.9105.30.433810
Providence460.400107.0112.00.370711
South Florida550.500104.4109.80.359612
Seton Hall360.333102.8108.80.343612
St. John's270.22293.3102.00.264414
Rutgers280.20095.2115.40.098216
DePaul190.10090.9111.10.091216
 
Average105.5105.40.504
Standard Dev.7.715.310.240

Sorted by Pythagorean Winning Percentage (Offensive Rating11.5/(Offensive Rating11.5 + Defensive Rating11.5)), the "Pythagorean Standings" do not exactly match the conference standing based on won/loss percentages. Not surprising in concept, but a look at the "Projected Record" does suggest one or two interesting, if unlikely, story lines...
1. Marquette Stages Strong Comeback -- the Golden Eagles are projected to go 8-0 through the rest of their schedule. Granted they have had a difficult first half, but even with the unexpected (and very welcomed) return of freshman Junior Cadougan, this one seems to be a stretch.
2. The Collapse of South Florida -- after a surprisingly strong start it seems strange to think the Bulls will go 1-7 through the rest of their schedule. Gus Gulchrist is back and that should bode even better for their prospects to finish somewhere closer to the 0.500 mark.
3. Louisville's Amazing Comeback -- this one may not be quite as farfetched as Marquette and South Florida, though going 8-1 through the rest of their schedule also seems unlikely. Coach Pitino's teams have a penchant for staging strong February runs, going another 1 - 2 games above 0.500 through the rest of their schedule seems possible. A record of (maybe) 11-7?
4. Life Without (After?) Jim Calhoun -- the Huskies' coach of 23 years took his second medical leave in three seasons last week. The team is in a funk, dropping three straight conference games after beating a well-regarded Texas team at the end of January. Though their out of conference body of work will not wow the Selection Committee (of the NCAA...), coupled with a winning conference record it should be enough for a bid, or at least serious consideration. The losing run changes that perception. Pomeroy shows four wins on their Team Page, but they will have to rely on the historic soft touches in the schedule, and a favorable home/away setting to get to 0.500.

The projection suggests Villanova will lose three games in the second half of the season and finish with a 15-3 record. I think a large portion of the Wildcat faithful would take that in a (New York?) second. Syracuse gets a good deal of respect from the media (and season-long stats compiled from Ken Pomeroy), but the conference-only stats are less favorable. A recent trend that Pomeroy is not picking up yet? Maybe, or most likely a too-small sample of only 10 conference games. The conference trend is easy to identify -- the Orange escaped Seton Hall by seven points, dropped an unexpected game to Pittsburgh (which will look very good on the Panthers' resume come March) and dodged a bullet at DePaul last weekend. Another Seton Hall ran a gaunlet in the first half, their 3-6 record is no doubt disappointing to the Pirate faithful, but hardly shocking based on where they have finished the past three seasons. 6-12, in the absence of a collapse in morale, would be a surprise. I suspect they will finish within 1 - 2 games of 0.500 (8-10, 9-9, etc.). No Jamie Dixon-coached Pittsburgh has finished lower than #6. The preseason had the Panthers finishing somewhere between #7 and #9. The projection puts them a #7, despite the fast start. Coach Norm Roberts upgraded the talent at St. John's yet again during the off season, pulling in a back court player and talented wing. But the Johnnies continue to struggle with offense. Has to be very frustrating for their fans.

This & That...
Note the standard deviations for offense and defense -- it seems that throught the first half of the season there is a greater gap between the best and worst offenses in the conference than the defenses. Allowing 1.05 (more or less) points per possession is a lot. And a little surprising. I had to tweak the wins and losses for a few of the teams as there were more computed "wins" than "losses", a state suggested by the average of the Pythagorean Winning Percentages at 0.504, rather than 0.500 even.

Thursday, October 1, 2009

Preview 2009-10 -- Marquette Golden Eagles

Too Busy for the Details?
The Golden Eagles return 2 players from the team that went to the Sweet Sixteen last season. They were led by an experienced trio of guards, anchored in the low post by a forward who played an out of position #5. The good thing about getting a class like the one Marquette just graduated is that they play together for four years and develop into a very good squad. The bad news is they graduate and move on. Coach Williams has a lot of parts to replace, and while he brings in a stellar class of freshmen, supplemented with a very good JUCO player or two, they will need time to learn how to trust one another and become a team. A good season for the Golden Eagles will have them playing better in February (and March) than in November and December (and January?). Prognosis -- A 3rd quartile finish.

3 Years At a Glance
Returning...
201020092008
%Min39.578.793.9
%Pts34.384.696.7
%FGM31.284.396.6
%3FGM33.784.198.2
%OReb53.469.294.1
%DReb41.973.792.4
%TReb45.772.193.0

The passing of Dom James, Jerel McNeal and Wes Matthews (& center/forward Dwight Burke) was predictable, all were on track to graduate/finish their eligibility at the end of the 2009 season. Maurice Acker's exit, announced in July, was not. Acker, on track to graduate in December, had a final year of eligibility available, but decided to forego the season. Will his experience/maturity be missed? The staff, judging from the statement announcing Acker's decision, does not appear troubled with the prospect of entering the season with so few returning minutes (and points) available. [Note] -- Maurice Acker did return to the team in late September, after freshman Brett Roseboro left the program and enrolled at St. Bonaventure.


According to Pomeroy...
2008-092007-082006-07
#Rank#Rank#Rank
Overall ORtg117.39116.224113.049
Overall DRtg93.95187.81091.031
Big East ORtg112.12106.15101.38
Big East DRtg103.7898.8398.77
Four Factors -- Overall
All Off. eFG%51.28550.614149.4198
All Off. TOv%16.51118.43721.0158
All Off. OReb%34.89737.82339.219
All Off. FTA/FGA45.41237.513839.990
All Def. eFG%50.925246.33047.258
All Def. TOv%21.112223.44924.326
All Def. OReb%30.78533.419735.0244
All Def. FTA/FGA45.41241.026239.9236
Four Factors -- Big East
BE Off. eFG%52.2448.7947.59
BE Off. TOv%14.9217.5420.612
BE Off. OReb%30.31434.2637.95
BE Off. FTA/FGA41.5335.71141.53
BE Def. eFG%53.21448.4547.26
BE Def. TOv%20.9523.4121.05
BE Def. OReb%32.8835.11335.913
BE Def. FTA/FGA26.5250.01543.914
Miscellanious
All Gms Cons21.924125.431520.7172
All Gms Luck-.021200-.034228+.000156

Coach Williams worked with a veteran, Crean-recruited team last season. That team was, by and large, a finished product; the staff was more focused on polishing and perfecting a style shaped by Crean and the unique, collective talent they had, rather than building and teaching a "new" team. Note their year-over-year progress with shot efficiency (eFG%), even as they cut down on turnovers (TOv%). If the Warriors regressed on offensive rebounding, they compensated with better shooting, reduced turnovers and more frequent trips to the line (FTA/FGA) to finish the play. The same process -- becoming more of itself -- can be seen in the defensive factors. If the Golden Eagles let up a bit on shot defense, they compensated by cutting down on opponent's opportunities to shoot (TOv%), reduced 2nd chance opportunities (OReb%) and avoided the fouls that allowed the opponent an opportunity to finish the possession at the free throw line (FTA/FGA). The more interesting numbers will be those generated by the 2010 squad. That squad's mix of four factor stats will probably more closely reflect Coach William's philosophy of the game (tempered by the talent he is able to collect and mold).

For the Record...
2008-092007-082006-07
WLPct.WLPct.WLPct.
Overall25100.71425100.71424100.706
Big East1260.6671170.6111060.625
Post Season?NCAA/Rnd 2NCAA/Rnd 2NCAA/Rnd 1

There may be some disappointment with the Class of 2009, but note that those Marquette squads extended their post season in each suceeding season. They went to the NCAAs without pg Dominic James, but nevertheless made it to the Sweet Sixteen, is a tribute to their overall skill and experience. Marquette and Coach Williams start over in 2010.

The Golden Eagles' Nucleus
Coach Buzz Williams will build this season's squad around returning forwards Lazar Hayward and Jimmy Butler for a reason...both are good.

On Offense
PlayerMin%OrtgPoss%Shot%eFG%PPWSOR%FTR%
Hayward78.9114.124.027.253.01.1410.330.6
Butler48.9131.214.110.851.41.2212.7104.7
Acker38.199.712.711.840.10.902.431.9
Cubillan21.186.512.112.936.40.800.823.6

David Cubillan, an off guard recruited out of St. Benedict's Prep in Newark, New Jersey, had a promising freshman season, but has been pushed deeper into the rotation with each passing season. He might get a few looks in practice and early in the season, but if he does not rebound and step up his defense (not to mention his accuracy) he will have problems playing over JUCO Dwight Buycks, among others. Butler is a 6-6 guard/forward who scores by penetrating and gathering putbacks. A good offensive rebounder, he did not show the same knack under the defensive basket. He took all of 4 3FGAs last season, compiling a 100.9 inside/outside rating. That made him possibly the most "inside" rated guard in DI ball last season (but not unusual for a forward). Given their respective roles in the offense last season, expect Hayward to take as much, if not more offensive responsibility, becoming the "go to guy", a role shared unselfishly among McNeal, James and Matthews, while Butler's role will also grow (it has to grow for Marquette to have a successful season), but most likely he will become the 3rd or 4th option on offense, rather than the 4th/5th option as he was last season. Hayward got an early start at leadership, as he was one of the scoring threats on the USA's World University Games men's team this past summer.

On Defense
PlayerMin%DR%Ast%TO%Stl%Blk%
Lazar Hayward78.921.67.514.00.91.8
Jimmy Butler48.910.86.610.02.51.4
Maurice Acker38.17.519.021.12.50.0
David Cubillan21.16.012.420.80.41.6

Competing with an undersized front court was a fact of life under Coach Tom Crean. Buzz Williams, though he recruited a pair of big bodies over the summer in 2008 saw neither Liam Morrow (who left the program) or 6-10/245lb Chris Otule (who played 60 minutes in 9 games) make any impact. Maurice Acker's return, coming as two new members of Golden Eagles' back court contingent log injuries, has to be welcomed by the staff and fans. I suspect Acker's offensive role will grow very little, but his maturity (and assist rate) will help to steady the team during the transition.

Significant Additions
Coach Williams will bring in a combined class of transfers (2 JUCOs) and true freshmen (4 from 4 different states), 6 in all, which should give the early practices the look of a travel team tryout. Competing with senior Maurice Acker for time at the point will be Darius Johnson-Odom, a North Carolina native by way of Hutchenson CC in Kansas. Milwaukee HS scorer Dwight Buycks spent last season in Iowa where he played for Indian Hills Community College. The Golden Eagles will need a shooter who can score on the inside and outside, and Buycks will try to fill that need.

Including Junior Cadougan, Coach Williams brought in five High School recruits (3 by consensus ranked in the Top 100), to fill out the roster. Playing beside (or behind) Lazar Hayward will be 6-6 Jeronne Maymon, a well-regarded if undersized #4 who uses his athleticism to get to the rim, but also shoots from as far out as 15 feet. Small forward Erik Williams will, unlike Jimmy Butler, take shots from the outside. Coach Williams also brings in another tall man, 7-2 (220lb) Youssoupha Mbao out of Stoneridge Prep in CA (the same school as Rutger's Hamady N'Diaye). The entire contingent will not, however, be available at the start of the season, Junior Cadougan, a Top 100 ranked recruit reputed to be jet fast with a high IQ and rocket pass, ruptured his Achilles' tendon during conditioning training in mid-September. Many anticipated he would step right into James' spot in the Golden Eagle offense, but with 4-6 monthes of rehabbing in front of him, his season is over. Johnson-Odom also suffered an injury in early September, but should be ready for the beginning of full squad practice in Mid-October. Whether he will be 100% is another matter. Mbao's amateur status has been the subject of an NCAA investigation, which, according to the Journal-Sentinel's Todd Rosiak, may result in a suspension of 2 - 8 games.

Explode If...
Hayward has to be close to his ceiling as an offensive force. He may be able to replace some of the offense provided by Matthews, James and McNeal (and Burke), but the balance will have to come from the new faces.
1. Dwight Buycks becomes 1st/2nd Team All-Big East good, while Odom & Cadougan step in and share the point with ease.
2. One of the big men, the freshman Mbao or the sophomore Chris Otule, mans the #5 and becomes a rebounding force. The Golden Eagles relied on fast breaks and quick hitters for points. The smaller lineup yielded few 2nd chance opportunities with the three guards, but Williams has taller trees, and no doubt a different approach to the game.

Implode If...
That Marquette will take a step back is almost a forgone conclusion (the coaching staff and die hard fans excepted), the question may be how much ground the Golden Eagles surrender.
1. Injuries to any combination of Hayward, Buycks, Butler, Odom and Cadougan. The team is not deep with Big East level talent (the jury is out on many of the newcomers), so taking out any of the established talent (Hayward, Butler) or the most well regarded of the incoming squad will be problematic. The season-ending injury to Cadougan, Acker's return notwithstanding, will test this theory.
2. The newcomers cannot provide consistent scoring. Right out of the gate, defenses will work to shut down Hayward. If the rest of the rotation cannot punish opponents for over-defensing Hayward, Marquette may be forced to compensate by reverting to a grind-it-out style of basketball.
3. Integrating many new faces can be a challenge, not only in learning the routine and systems of a new staff, but with players learning to trust each other and work together under pressure. Bad chemistry can be an accelerant if the team struggles early.

Crucial Run/Bellweather Games
Marquette has 4 warmup games against low-major DI squads going into Orlando, Florida for the Old Spice Classic. Should the Golden Eagles struggle against the likes of Centenary, Maryland Eastern Shore, Grambling or South Dakota State, the staff may be nervous when they have to face a field that includes both power conference name programs like Michigan, Baylor, Florida State and Alabama, and Xavier and Creighton, a pair of mid-major conference teams also looking for credibility. The 1st round match-up against Xavier should be telling, as both squads have to replace critical players. The X-Men lost their head coach to Arizona over the summer, an NBA-level forward and all conference guard to graduation (and the NBA draft), so the Muskateers will also be looking for answers. Marquette will follow with a game against either Creighton or Michigan, both squads returning intact from the 2009 season. Their third game will come from a team in the other bracket (Alabama, Florida State, Baylor or Iona). Their post Old Spice homestand includes a visit from a struggling North Carolina State of the ACC, followed by a road trip to Madison to take on Big Ten power Wisconsin. Beating NCSU would be a good sign, as their Head Coach Sidney Lowe is under the gun for managing an underperforming team. But the Wisci game, realistically a loss, should be a good measure of how much ground Marquette will have to cover going into the Big East season.

Marquette's first four games, a road opener at West Virginia followed by a two game homestand (Villanova and Georgetown), followed by a road game at Villanova, could well start the Golden Eagles in an 0-4 hole (anything better would be a mild surprise...and bad news for the 'Eer, Wildcats or Hoyas), but tempered expectations aside, the next four games (hosting Providence, traveling to DePaul and Syracuse, then home again to host Rutgers) has to produce a 2-2 mark if Marquette has any expectations for finishing in the third (or higher) quartile. Through the last ten games, Marquette will host DePaul (their second mirror opponent), South florida, Pittsburgh, Louisville and Notre Dame. Among those five games the Golden Eagles will need to find 3 (or more?) wins. The home games, plus a road trip to Providence (their third mirror opponent) represent Marquette's best oppportunity to garner 6 (or more) wins. 2010 could be a very tough year for Marquette fans.