The Big East -- Comparing BCS Records

Oh Providence...
A quiet story through the first week+ of the season was the cumulative conference records, especially among the power (BCS) conferences. Preseason stories for example, heralded the return to glory of the SEC, led of course by the resurgence of the Kentucky program even as those writers anticipated a less dominant Big East Conference. The won-loss records compiled by the BCS conferences suggest the Big East may not be ready to go gently into that good night. 2009's most dominant conference opened the 2010 season with a 40 game winning streak that exceeded the next lengthiest conference (the Big 12) by 11. Which conference was the "last to lose"? In truth it came down to the Big East and Big 12 again. And who went last was not clear, as both Providence and Kansas State (the two who lost "first" in their respective conferences) started their ill-fated games at 8:00 EST (Providence-Alabama, Kansas State-Mississippi). I suspect, given the time lag in the game schedule at the Puerto Rico Tip Off Classic, that the Big 12 lasted about 20-25 minutes longer than the Big East counterpart. The summary through Friday evening per Ken Pomeroy's Rating Site...

	Record				Adjusted				Eff.
Conference	W	L	Pct	Pomeroy	Off.	Def.	Pace	SOS	Diff
Big 12	30	2	0.938	0.8948	116.2	87.7	70.9	0.4753	28.5
SEC	29	6	0.829	0.6720	107.5	98.0	68.2	0.4452	9.5
Big East	41	2	0.953	0.6839	110.3	96.8	70.8	0.4393	13.4
ACC	30	3	0.909	0.8751	104.9	69.4	67.7	0.4174	35.5
PAC 10	22	7	0.759	0.6515	111.0	99.5	70.8	0.394	11.5
Big Ten	23	8	0.742	0.5922	96.6	88.7	68.4	0.2925	7.9

The table is sorted by Strength of Schedule (SOS). The season is still very young (about 15% of the total games this season have been played), with the conference SOS and Pomeroy Rating still volatile. I looked at the totals for Thursday and found the Big Ten had the highest SOS. Note the Big East is ranked 3rd in adjusted offense (110.3) and 4th in adjusted defense (96.8). Efficiency Difference (Eff. Diff) derives from subtracting the ajusted defensive rating from the adjusted offensive rating. More teams accounts for more wins? Maybe, but consider Big East teams are averaging a won-loss record of 2.6-0.13 per team, while the Big 12 averages 2.5-0.16 and the ACC averages 2.5-0.23 per team through Friday night.

Last Thursday was brutal for the Big Ten, as the conference went 1-3, their teams taking losses to North Carolina (Ohio State), Mississippi (Indiana) and UNC-Wilmington (Penn State).

NCAA First Round -- Conference Progress Report

Looking at the results from the first round games, I was curious to see how the power conferences did...

	Seed				Record
Conf.	#1-#8	#9-#16	Bids		W	L	Pct.
Big 12	5	1	6		6	0	1.000
Big East	7	0	7		6	1	0.857
PAC10	4	2	6		5	1	0.833
Big Ten	4	3	7		4	3	0.571
ACC	6	1	7		3	4	0.429
SEC	1	2	3		1	2	0.333

The Big 12 looks like they fared best among the power conferences. Especially notable given they had one team seeded in the lower half of the field (Texas A&M, seeded #9 beat BYU out of the Mountain West Conference). A&M fell to Connecticut 92-66 in the 2nd round. The Big East did fairly well, though it was to be expected given all 7 bids were seeded #1 through #6. The conference's lone 1st round casualty was West Virginia, the Mountaineers running into a deceptively deliberate Dayton team and falling 60-68. The Pac10s two underseeds, Arizona (#12) and USC (#10) managed to pull upsets over their 1st round opponents (Utah & Boston College, respectively), even as favored California (#7) fell to their underseeded ACC opponent Maryland. For the Mountain West Conference losses for both BYU and Utah managed to close out the conference's tournament presence. The MWC finished 0-2 this season, especially given that Utah and BYU had both earned higher seeds (#5 & #8 respectively). Only two of the Big Ten's high seeds (Michigan State and Purdue) won, the conference's reputation salvaged by low seeds Michigan and Wisconsin. Neither of those winners should be shocking. Michigan coach John Beilein is well known to Big East fans as he did a turn at West Virginia, taking several underrated Mountaineer teams deeper into the tournament than most believed they could go. Wisconsin's Bo Ryan is noted for his defense, and true to form, the Badgers strangled their first round opponent, Florida State, in a 59-61 game. Most disappointing to date has to be the ACC, which looks more like a "North Carolina, Duke & the 10 Dwarves" conference. Despite having 6 high seeds, the conference pulled a dismal 3-4 in the 1st round, the third win coming in an upset engineered by veteran Maryland coach Gary Williams. High seeds Wake Forest (#4), Florida State (#5), Boston College (#7) and Clemson (#7) all fell.

Multi-bid and other Mids
Four mid-low major conferences received high seeds, with 3 conferences pulling down multiple bids. The highest seed in the group went to Memphis of CUSA, the Tigers getting a #2 seed in the West Region. Coming out of 1st round action, the A10 conference appears to be the most prosperous, having pulled in 3 bids (Xavier #4, Dayton #11 and conference tournament winner Temple #11), with two teams (Dayton and Xavier) advancing into the 2nd round. That gives the conference a 2-1 record so far. The Horizon Conference had a surprise turn, with Butler (#9) falling in the 1st round and overlooked Cleveland State (#13), the conference tournament champion, advancing, and so giving the conference a 1-1 record so far. Both team were low seeds (though at #9 it is arguable even with #8s), so the Horizon again made some unexpected noise. The Gonzaga Bulldogs, a #4 seed out of the West Coast Conference advanced as a high seed. Not a shock. Of the other low seed, mid majors who advanced Siena (#9) out of the MAAC should not surprise those who follow Northeastern basketball, and the Sun Belt representative Western Kentucky (#12) has made (counting this season) 22 NCAA appearances, compiling a 17-20 record.

A New Blog: Big Ten Geeks

Villanova by the Numbers guest poster Ray Floriani dropped me a note Monday (Bonnies fans be sure to check out Ray's post, "Statistical Analysis: St. Bonaventure" over at the College Chalktalk Blog) about a new Big Ten Conference basketball blog, Big Ten Geeks.

Back in 2005 blogger John Gasaway cranked up the Big Ten Wonk Blog with the promise to produce a (nearly) daily report (during the season of course) on the state of the Big Ten basketball conference. Alternating straight reporting with analysis powered by Dean Oliver's possession-based statistics and occasionally adapting John Holloway's NBA stats to the NCAA, filtered with a perspective that many admire but few can emulate, Gasaway kept the party going for three seasons. The Wonk shuttered his blog officially on April 3, 2007 as he moved on to a series of collaborations with Ken Pomeroy over at The Basketball Prospectus. Josh & Mike picked up the torch last month and have rekindled the BT Wonk's mission to provide statistical insight on the teams of the Big Ten. They may not have Gasaway's flare (who does?), but they definitely have the numbers. I have been reading Josh's team-by-team previews and come away impressed with his grasp of the details and his ability to work with the stats to provide insight. Those Wildcat (Villanova here, not Northwestern...) fans who are interested in a good heads-up on the Nits, a possible opponent in The Philly Classic next November might want to check out The Geek's take at "2008-09 Preview: Penn State".

I have added these guys to my "Notable Blogs" sidebar, and I wish them the best of luck!