The Wildcats take on their fifth program whose season is "on the brink" Saturday, when they host the Georgetown University Hoyas at the (Wachovia) Center Saturday. Who knew the Hoyas would miss Jon Wallace, Roy Hibbert (and Vernon Macklin?) so much? It did not look that way 8 weeks ago. The Hoyas, off of a 9-1 OOC run had just housed the Connecticut Huskies in a truly impressive manner. The next 2 months seem to belong to another team, another season, another universe? Implosions of the magnitude experienced by the Hoyas usually come with bodies broken and bleeding. Mike Wise over at the Washington Post offered some insight on the team dynamics earlier this week in his article, "What Happened to the Hoyas?". CO_Hoya over at Hoya Prospectus provides graphics on the Hoyas fall from grace, complete with performance charts and trend lines. The Hoya Talk messageboard is replete with threads that discuss the team problems and challenges faces by Coach Thompson. Villanova trails this series (27-38 -- one of only 4 in the Big East that Nova is on the short end...) which dates back to 1922. In 65 games played over 86 years each team has seen the other in every phase of the rise and fall cycle...several times over. Which Hoya team will come to play...
Common Opponents, Good Wins, Bad Losses...
DePaul (8-19, 0-14, RPI #190) is in the midst of a spirit-draining 0-14 run which began with conference play. A winning margins comparison, team-by-team might be useful. Or not. Maybe a smaller, RPI-based comparison will highlight the differences...
Georgetown's worst loss is to Seton Hall -- the Pirates (RPI #102) handed the Hoyas a 65-60 a road loss on 1/25/09. ...
Lineups, Rotations...
...Like DePaul head coach Jerry Wainwright, Coach Thompson is looking for a workable starting lineup. Senior off guard Jesse Sapp (6-3, 212lbs) has not started since the Rutgers game, though he has logged at least 20 mintues in 4 of the 5 subsequent games. Coach Thompson has started redshirt freshman Chris Wright (6-1, 201lbs) and put sophomore Austin Freeman (6-4, 239lbs) beside him. Sophomore forward Nikita Mescheriakov (6-8, 214lbs) has started on the wing with junior DaJuan Summers (6-8, 236lbs) and freshman Greg Monroe (6-11, 250lbs) in the frontcourt. Coach Thompson's rotation has consistently run 9-10 players through the game. Typically between 7 and 9 of those players will see double digit minutes. Front court relief is offered by sophomore transfer Julian Vaughn (6-9, 246lbs) or freshman Henry Sims (6-10, 225lbs) or sophomore g/f Omar Wattad (6-5, 225lbs). None of the three is frequently called lately, though all three have put in time. Backcout relief comes in the form of senior Jesse Sapp and freshman Jason Clark (6-2, 176lbs). Both have received a large portion of the substitution minutes.
Villanova's staff has settled on the starting lineup of Dante Cunningham along with Shane Clark in the front court, and Dwayne Anderson on the wing with Scottie Reynolds and Reggie Redding in the back court. These 5 have started the last 7 games (Senior Night excepted). It is a safe to expect the run continue with the Georgetown game. Clark and Anderson have skills sets that have provem to be a good complement to Dante's own front court skills. While more than a few of the Nova faithful held their breath when Clark first started, he has proven to be extremely effective on the boards, and an efficient 4th (or so) option on offense. He has made offensive rebounding his specialty, and DePaul game aside, has done a masterful job getting the 'Cats 2nd (and 3rd) chances. Reggie Redding has had a series of strong outings lately, the time invested in his development appears to be generating returns. The Coreys, Fisher and Stokes will see time in the back court (Fish) and wing (Stokes), and given that Monroe and Summers have developed into a solid front court, I would also expect to see Antonio Pena get time as well.
By the Numbers, Offense & Defense...
With an adjusted tempo of 64.2, the Hoyas are the first team since Rutgers that the Wildcats have faced who play below the D1 average (66.7). Hopefully it will not throw them or slow them. The 'Cats and Knights ended up running (for Rutgers) a game for nearly 70 possessions. The Hoyas are #23 for offensive efficiency (114.1 adjusted, per Ken Pomeroy), ranked 7th in the Big East, nearly the same as Villanova (#18, 114.9). Comparing the elements that most influence that rating with Villanova's defensive factors...
The Hoya's shooting efficiency (eFG%) is high -- the strongest single element among their four factors. They are especially efficient at converting 2FGAs (54.7, #11 by Ken Pomeroy. The Wildcats are committed to limiting conversions inside the arc, holding opponents to 44.7% conversion. In the 1st 'Cat-Hoya tilt last season, Nova was able to hold Georgetown to a 45% conversion rate for 2s. Coupled with a mediocre shooting percentage of 35% of their 3s the 'Cats were able to hold the score to a managable difference. Low shooting percentages were coupled with a good many 2nd (and 3rd) chance opportunities for the Wildcats, as they grabbed an incredible 85% of their offensive rebounds while holding the Hoyas to a very average 34% of their own misses. Throw in a 27% turnover rate (for the Hoyas) which had the effect of limiting their FGAs, and the elements were in place for the low scoring, one possession game that the two teams played (and Bob Driscoll decided...). The Hoyas did a much better job preparing for the 2nd game. They made an effort to setup Jon Wallace (their best 3 point shooter) & Jesse Sapp throughout the 1st half. Repeatedly penetrating the lane with kickouts to Wallace (and Sapp) when the defense converged, sealed by guards' deadeye accuracy, put the 'Cats into a very deep hole by half time. The Wildcats and Hoyas may well take those same approaches this time around. The 'Cats may clog the lane and the Hoyas may counter with outside shots. The Hoyas make a concerted effort to incorporate 3FGAs into their offense -- 36.1% of their FGAs come from beyond the arc, ranking them 3rd in the Big East (behind Cincinnati and Louisville) for percentage of 3s taken. The offense will go through Summers and/or Monroe. Summers will shoot, while Monroe is inclined to shot or pass. Behind Summers, Monroe, Wright and Austin Freeman are about equally inclined to take the shot. And behind those three Sapp, Jason Clark, Omar Wattad and Nikita Mescheriakov form a 3rd scoring wave. Who is most likely to take the shot will be dictated by the specific combination of players on the court.
The "Four Factors" look at Villanova's offense versus Georgetown's defense:
Note the same shot offense/defense contrast as before, this time with Hoyas on defense and 'Cats on offense. Georgetown is good at defending both the 2 and the 3, but lack the kind of dominant defensive rebounding that shuts off 2nd chance opportunities. Like the Verizon Center game last season, if the Wildcats can exploit a large number of 2nd chance opportunities, they can compensate for the Hoyas defense...
Want to Beat Georgetown? Then...
The leading indicator is again shot efficiency. Translate FGAs into points and the Wildcats should win.
1. Hit your shots -- like the Demons, this is by far the single most significant factor. Hoya's defensive eFG% is 46.4. In games where their opponents have converted with an eFG% better than that rate, the Hoyas are 3-11. Villanova's offensive eFG% is 52.0 -- at that rate or greater, the Hoyas are 1-11.
2. Contest their shots -- the 'Cats have given a few poor shooting teams very big nights (Rutgers). Holding down their scoring efficiencies would provide a big step to winning the game. When Georgetown shoots to Villanova's defensive eFG% (46.9) or lower, they are 4-7.
3. Limit their 2nd Chance Opportunities -- the Hoyas have not rebounded well at either end of the floor this season, strange for a team with accomplilshed bigs like Summers, Monroe and Sims. Villanova has limited opponents to 30.6% of their misses. When the Hoyas are limited to 30% or fewer of their misses, they have gone 6-5.
4. Limit turnovers -- the Hoyas have improved over last season with respect to forcing turnovers. They currently force about 21.5% rate. The Wildcats are better, at 18.8% they fall below the Hoya's rate. When their opponents have turned the ball over at Villanova's rate, Georgetown is 0-7. When their opponents have turned the ball over at a rate less than 21.5%, the Hoyas are 6-7.
Finally...
...The Wildcats have been able to "control" games played at home. They either jump out to lead (Syracuse, Marquette, St. John's) and maintain control throughout the game, or stay within contact and overcome the opponents after the intermission (Pitt). The Hoyas have not been able to close out a determined opponent in the past 2 months. CO_HOYA's split stats suggest that...
1. Georgetown's 2nd half defense falls off from their 1st half defense (hmmmmm where else have I seen that trend?). The 2nd half may well be a real fireworks display.
2. Defense in away games is considerably less effective than home games. Hoya Prospectus splits suggest a difference is about -9. The offense/defense differential for away games is +2.1, considerably closer than the differential when the Hoyas play at home (about +15).
Per Ken Pomeroy's Villanova Team Page, this game should go for about 65 possessions (low for D1, within the Hoya's comfort zone), with Nova taking a 4 point decision. Pomeroy's degree of certainty (66%) is pretty comfortable, but the margin, 4 points, suggests this will the teams will be within 1-2 possessions at the end of the game.
Other Previews...
The Casual Hoya Blogger has a dialog with our own IBBW at Villanova! (forgive me IBBW, I thought I would throw a bone to the other guy for a change...).
And Nova News produced a fact-filled game preview.
Villanvoa Viewpoint provides an "around-the-horn" style summary of blog-generated previews from both the Nova Nation and the Hoya followers.
Common Opponents, Good Wins, Bad Losses...
DePaul (8-19, 0-14, RPI #190) is in the midst of a spirit-draining 0-14 run which began with conference play. A winning margins comparison, team-by-team might be useful. Or not. Maybe a smaller, RPI-based comparison will highlight the differences...
| vs RPI | Conference | ||||||
| RPI | 1-50 | 51-100 | >100 | Overall | Home | Away | |
| Georgetown | 47 | 3-8 | 3-3 | 12-1 | 5-10 | 3-5 | 2-5 |
| Villanova | 10 | 5-5 | 5-0 | 13-0 | 11-4 | 6-1 | 5-3 |
Georgetown's worst loss is to Seton Hall -- the Pirates (RPI #102) handed the Hoyas a 65-60 a road loss on 1/25/09. ...
Lineups, Rotations...
...Like DePaul head coach Jerry Wainwright, Coach Thompson is looking for a workable starting lineup. Senior off guard Jesse Sapp (6-3, 212lbs) has not started since the Rutgers game, though he has logged at least 20 mintues in 4 of the 5 subsequent games. Coach Thompson has started redshirt freshman Chris Wright (6-1, 201lbs) and put sophomore Austin Freeman (6-4, 239lbs) beside him. Sophomore forward Nikita Mescheriakov (6-8, 214lbs) has started on the wing with junior DaJuan Summers (6-8, 236lbs) and freshman Greg Monroe (6-11, 250lbs) in the frontcourt. Coach Thompson's rotation has consistently run 9-10 players through the game. Typically between 7 and 9 of those players will see double digit minutes. Front court relief is offered by sophomore transfer Julian Vaughn (6-9, 246lbs) or freshman Henry Sims (6-10, 225lbs) or sophomore g/f Omar Wattad (6-5, 225lbs). None of the three is frequently called lately, though all three have put in time. Backcout relief comes in the form of senior Jesse Sapp and freshman Jason Clark (6-2, 176lbs). Both have received a large portion of the substitution minutes.
Villanova's staff has settled on the starting lineup of Dante Cunningham along with Shane Clark in the front court, and Dwayne Anderson on the wing with Scottie Reynolds and Reggie Redding in the back court. These 5 have started the last 7 games (Senior Night excepted). It is a safe to expect the run continue with the Georgetown game. Clark and Anderson have skills sets that have provem to be a good complement to Dante's own front court skills. While more than a few of the Nova faithful held their breath when Clark first started, he has proven to be extremely effective on the boards, and an efficient 4th (or so) option on offense. He has made offensive rebounding his specialty, and DePaul game aside, has done a masterful job getting the 'Cats 2nd (and 3rd) chances. Reggie Redding has had a series of strong outings lately, the time invested in his development appears to be generating returns. The Coreys, Fisher and Stokes will see time in the back court (Fish) and wing (Stokes), and given that Monroe and Summers have developed into a solid front court, I would also expect to see Antonio Pena get time as well.
By the Numbers, Offense & Defense...
With an adjusted tempo of 64.2, the Hoyas are the first team since Rutgers that the Wildcats have faced who play below the D1 average (66.7). Hopefully it will not throw them or slow them. The 'Cats and Knights ended up running (for Rutgers) a game for nearly 70 possessions. The Hoyas are #23 for offensive efficiency (114.1 adjusted, per Ken Pomeroy), ranked 7th in the Big East, nearly the same as Villanova (#18, 114.9). Comparing the elements that most influence that rating with Villanova's defensive factors...
| When Georgetown has the ball... | ||||
| FTA | ||||
| eFG% | TO% | OR% | FGA | |
| Hoya O | 53.5 | 20.9 | 34.1 | 43.3 |
| Wildcat D | 46.9 | 21.4 | 30.6 | 37.2 |
The Hoya's shooting efficiency (eFG%) is high -- the strongest single element among their four factors. They are especially efficient at converting 2FGAs (54.7, #11 by Ken Pomeroy. The Wildcats are committed to limiting conversions inside the arc, holding opponents to 44.7% conversion. In the 1st 'Cat-Hoya tilt last season, Nova was able to hold Georgetown to a 45% conversion rate for 2s. Coupled with a mediocre shooting percentage of 35% of their 3s the 'Cats were able to hold the score to a managable difference. Low shooting percentages were coupled with a good many 2nd (and 3rd) chance opportunities for the Wildcats, as they grabbed an incredible 85% of their offensive rebounds while holding the Hoyas to a very average 34% of their own misses. Throw in a 27% turnover rate (for the Hoyas) which had the effect of limiting their FGAs, and the elements were in place for the low scoring, one possession game that the two teams played (and Bob Driscoll decided...). The Hoyas did a much better job preparing for the 2nd game. They made an effort to setup Jon Wallace (their best 3 point shooter) & Jesse Sapp throughout the 1st half. Repeatedly penetrating the lane with kickouts to Wallace (and Sapp) when the defense converged, sealed by guards' deadeye accuracy, put the 'Cats into a very deep hole by half time. The Wildcats and Hoyas may well take those same approaches this time around. The 'Cats may clog the lane and the Hoyas may counter with outside shots. The Hoyas make a concerted effort to incorporate 3FGAs into their offense -- 36.1% of their FGAs come from beyond the arc, ranking them 3rd in the Big East (behind Cincinnati and Louisville) for percentage of 3s taken. The offense will go through Summers and/or Monroe. Summers will shoot, while Monroe is inclined to shot or pass. Behind Summers, Monroe, Wright and Austin Freeman are about equally inclined to take the shot. And behind those three Sapp, Jason Clark, Omar Wattad and Nikita Mescheriakov form a 3rd scoring wave. Who is most likely to take the shot will be dictated by the specific combination of players on the court.
The "Four Factors" look at Villanova's offense versus Georgetown's defense:
| When Villanova has the ball... | ||||
| FTA | ||||
| eFG% | TO% | OR% | FGA | |
| Wildcat O | 52.0 | 18.8 | 36.3 | 43.8 |
| Hoya D | 46.4 | 21.5 | 36.5 | 32.8 |
Note the same shot offense/defense contrast as before, this time with Hoyas on defense and 'Cats on offense. Georgetown is good at defending both the 2 and the 3, but lack the kind of dominant defensive rebounding that shuts off 2nd chance opportunities. Like the Verizon Center game last season, if the Wildcats can exploit a large number of 2nd chance opportunities, they can compensate for the Hoyas defense...
Want to Beat Georgetown? Then...
The leading indicator is again shot efficiency. Translate FGAs into points and the Wildcats should win.
1. Hit your shots -- like the Demons, this is by far the single most significant factor. Hoya's defensive eFG% is 46.4. In games where their opponents have converted with an eFG% better than that rate, the Hoyas are 3-11. Villanova's offensive eFG% is 52.0 -- at that rate or greater, the Hoyas are 1-11.
2. Contest their shots -- the 'Cats have given a few poor shooting teams very big nights (Rutgers). Holding down their scoring efficiencies would provide a big step to winning the game. When Georgetown shoots to Villanova's defensive eFG% (46.9) or lower, they are 4-7.
3. Limit their 2nd Chance Opportunities -- the Hoyas have not rebounded well at either end of the floor this season, strange for a team with accomplilshed bigs like Summers, Monroe and Sims. Villanova has limited opponents to 30.6% of their misses. When the Hoyas are limited to 30% or fewer of their misses, they have gone 6-5.
4. Limit turnovers -- the Hoyas have improved over last season with respect to forcing turnovers. They currently force about 21.5% rate. The Wildcats are better, at 18.8% they fall below the Hoya's rate. When their opponents have turned the ball over at Villanova's rate, Georgetown is 0-7. When their opponents have turned the ball over at a rate less than 21.5%, the Hoyas are 6-7.
Finally...
...The Wildcats have been able to "control" games played at home. They either jump out to lead (Syracuse, Marquette, St. John's) and maintain control throughout the game, or stay within contact and overcome the opponents after the intermission (Pitt). The Hoyas have not been able to close out a determined opponent in the past 2 months. CO_HOYA's split stats suggest that...
1. Georgetown's 2nd half defense falls off from their 1st half defense (hmmmmm where else have I seen that trend?). The 2nd half may well be a real fireworks display.
2. Defense in away games is considerably less effective than home games. Hoya Prospectus splits suggest a difference is about -9. The offense/defense differential for away games is +2.1, considerably closer than the differential when the Hoyas play at home (about +15).
Per Ken Pomeroy's Villanova Team Page, this game should go for about 65 possessions (low for D1, within the Hoya's comfort zone), with Nova taking a 4 point decision. Pomeroy's degree of certainty (66%) is pretty comfortable, but the margin, 4 points, suggests this will the teams will be within 1-2 possessions at the end of the game.
Other Previews...
The Casual Hoya Blogger has a dialog with our own IBBW at Villanova! (forgive me IBBW, I thought I would throw a bone to the other guy for a change...).
And Nova News produced a fact-filled game preview.
Villanvoa Viewpoint provides an "around-the-horn" style summary of blog-generated previews from both the Nova Nation and the Hoya followers.
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