Thinking back to the beginning of the Big East season I had high hopes for the Wildcats going into their first game with Marquette. The road loss was not surprising (after all, Ken Pomeroy had projected a ? point loss in Milwaukee), but nevertheless disappointing. The second game, also on the road against Seton Hall gave the 'Cats their first Big East win, but it took an overtime and a huge night from Scottie Reynolds, to get it done. Fifteen games in and 11-4 is farther along than I anticipated they would be, but the season has hardly been a smooth ride. I decided to plot the difference between Pomeroy's projected scoring margin versus the actual scoring margin. The results (chart below) were a little surprising...
There is a circle for each Big East game Nova has played. Green circles are wins, red circles are losses. The games are arranged chronologically -- the first Big East game, a loss at Marquette, is at the far left, the latest game, a win at DePaul, is at the far right. Game order is noted on the X axis (marked by the blue line). Games closest to the X axis are those where the performance came closest to Pomeroy's projection (expectation); those games farthest away from the X axis are those games where the performance deviated greatest from Pomeroy's projection (expectation). Games above the X axis exceeded expectations, those below fell short of expectations.
Observations...
The BE trend line is positive - as I measured it before the DePaul game. That suggests that the Wildcats are improving as the Big East season progressed. Starting below the X axis was not surprising, the Wildcats did much the same last season, a product, I suspect, of inflated expectations coming out of the OOC portion of their schedule.
Cats are struggling lately - the blowout of Marquette marked a high point in expectations. If the team had "settled" on a performance plateau, I believe succeeding games would have "declined" toward the X axis. Instead the margins have gyrated widely but largely, below the X axis. Hopefully the Wildcats will refocus for the stretch run in the regular season. Finding the appropriate motivation (winning the BET? securing a high seed & local venue for the 1st rounds of the NCAA?) may be key to recapturing the momentum they had coming out of the Pittsburgh and Marquette wins.
The Wildcats play better at home - hardly shocking, but note that 5 of the 7 games that fell below expectations were played on the road. 5 of the 8 games that exceeded expectations were played in the Pavilion or the Center.
The most disappointing game -- was at West Virginia. Fans may have had higher expectations about the wins over Rutgers and DePaul (reasonable to be sure). But for flat out falling short, the Massacre in Morgantown set the low mark for the season.
There is a circle for each Big East game Nova has played. Green circles are wins, red circles are losses. The games are arranged chronologically -- the first Big East game, a loss at Marquette, is at the far left, the latest game, a win at DePaul, is at the far right. Game order is noted on the X axis (marked by the blue line). Games closest to the X axis are those where the performance came closest to Pomeroy's projection (expectation); those games farthest away from the X axis are those games where the performance deviated greatest from Pomeroy's projection (expectation). Games above the X axis exceeded expectations, those below fell short of expectations.Observations...
The BE trend line is positive - as I measured it before the DePaul game. That suggests that the Wildcats are improving as the Big East season progressed. Starting below the X axis was not surprising, the Wildcats did much the same last season, a product, I suspect, of inflated expectations coming out of the OOC portion of their schedule.
Cats are struggling lately - the blowout of Marquette marked a high point in expectations. If the team had "settled" on a performance plateau, I believe succeeding games would have "declined" toward the X axis. Instead the margins have gyrated widely but largely, below the X axis. Hopefully the Wildcats will refocus for the stretch run in the regular season. Finding the appropriate motivation (winning the BET? securing a high seed & local venue for the 1st rounds of the NCAA?) may be key to recapturing the momentum they had coming out of the Pittsburgh and Marquette wins.
The Wildcats play better at home - hardly shocking, but note that 5 of the 7 games that fell below expectations were played on the road. 5 of the 8 games that exceeded expectations were played in the Pavilion or the Center.
The most disappointing game -- was at West Virginia. Fans may have had higher expectations about the wins over Rutgers and DePaul (reasonable to be sure). But for flat out falling short, the Massacre in Morgantown set the low mark for the season.
4 comments:
Very useful and informative chart. Amazing.
You mention the trend was positive before the DePaul game. How did the below-expectations-but-still-a-win DePaul result affect the trend line? I'm guessing it would drop a bit, but would it negate the recent positive results?
I love this type of analysis, but am clearly too lazy to crunch the numbers myself...
Hello, greyCat-
As always, great substantive quantitative analysis...
Some specific thoughts on this passage:
"Finding the appropriate motivation (winning the BET? securing a high seed & local venue for the 1st rounds of the NCAA?) may be key to recapturing the momentum they had coming out of the Pittsburgh and Marquette wins.
The Wildcats play better at home - hardly shocking, but note that 5 of the 7 games that fell below expectations were played on the road. 5 of the 8 games that exceeded expectations were played in the Pavilion or the Center."
I have always wondered precisely how much playing home games at the Center diminishes our home-court advantage (as opposed to the Pavilion). Of course, it's far better than playing on a neutral court or on the road, in that the players are reasonably familiar with it and the fans are cheering for us. That having been said, I would have to think that playing on any court other than the one you use all the time, would affect shots, comfort level, etc...
(I remember that Gary Buchanan, in particular, was a much better shooter at home...)
Thanks Pete -- I have been thinking about charting the 'Cats for a while, but was not able to finish the chart and get it posted until last night.
The trendline points down now Hezekiah, not a good development. Remember though, the "expectations" for the 'Cats were pretty modest at the beginning of the Big East season, and developed as the season progressed. I have a few individual charts I will try to post soon, which suggest a number of players are also "getting better". Offensively at least.
I am fairly certain Pomeroy's projection does not account for the fact that the 'Cats play in three different "home venues". I have to believe the sample size for the Wach and Spectrum is too small to be useful anyway Publisher, but if you "eyeball" the chart, I am sure you will agree that the site, Wach (Syracuse 2 & Louisville) nor the Spectrum (Pitt) appear to diminish the Wildcat's performance (compare to Rutgers, Cincinnati & St. John's).
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