Saturday, February 21, 2009

Looking at the Home Stretch

As the regular season comes into the last 2 weekends, Rob Lowe over at Cracked Sidewalks decided to crunch some numbers and take a closer look at the win probabilities for the current tenants of the Big East's 1st quartile in his posting "Predicting the Rest of the Season". Rob believes that 15 wins is the most likely outcome for the top team(s?), though Pitt has the highest probability of reaching 16 wins.

The Nova Nation would be most interested in Rob's last few paragraphs, where he looks at the Marquette-Villanova battle over the last double bye (bye-bye?) spot. Rob's calculations suggest that Marquette has the better chance of winning 14 games and taking the last spot outright.

Very good analysis Rob, a very worthwhile read and I urge readers to get over and take the time.

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