Inside-Outside in the Big East, 2011 Into 2012

Pelton vs Pomeroy And Other Issues
Keven Pelton, currently an author for The Basketball Prospectus developed the stat as a shorthand for determining where (and how often...) a player tended to take his shots, either inside or outside of the three point line. The formula,

Inside = (FTA - 3FGA) / Minutes

weighs free throw attempts against three point attempts to determine the tendency of the player, or in the case of this post the team, to take those FGAs from beyond the arc. Dividing by minutes played implicitely measures the frequency of the outside shot. I have multiplied the result by 100 to develop a more readable stat. Ken Pomeroy introduced a modified version of Pelton's stat with his 2007 Preview of the Big 12 Conference with the explanation "...Inside is a knock off of Kevin Pelton's stat which attempts to quantify where a players shots come from...". Pomeroy's formula

Inside = (FTA - 3FGA) / FGA * 100

uses the difference of free throws attempts from three point attempts as a proportion of total field goal attempts. The underlying assumption is that because perimeter-oriented teams (POTs as defined by John Gasaway) take larger proportions of their FGAs beyond the arc, they are less likely to get to the free throw line to compensate for any missed FGAs, or and ones that come as bonuses for being fouled but making the shot anyway. Teams that shoot a lot of threes do not tend to get a lot of trips to the charity stripe.

A comparison of where the team took it's shots last season with where the returning players took their shots last season should provide a hint about the basic offensive orientation of each team going into fall practice. I added the returning minutes to give the reader a sense of whether the returning contingent can be expected to replace the departed offense. A team that returns a nucleus of players whose offensive orientation is unrepresentative of the coach's historic offensive philosophy could present the coaching staff with a choice -- to adapt the offense to the strengths offered by the nucleus of returning players, or encourage the nucleus to develop the offensive skill set of the departed squad members...or hope the freshmen come through.

	Ret.	Pelton		Pomeroy
	Min%	2011	2012	2011	2012
Cincinnati	59.2	1.30	3.15	4.69	10.41
Connecticut	61.7	1.33	0.35	4.57	1.36
DePaul	73.6	1.27	3.53	4.44	11.58
Georgetown	48.5	-0.98	-2.44	-3.70	-10.67
Louisville	71.4	-3.19	-2.85	-10.82	-10.86
Marquette	62.0	5.12	4.82	18.15	16.87
Notre Dame	54.4	1.72	0.40	6.50	1.56
Pittsburgh	57.3	4.29	1.99	15.70	7.12
Providence	79.1	1.29	1.08	4.13	3.91
Rutgers	47.8	0.83	5.71	3.04	20.56
Seton Hall	46.2	-0.56	2.43	-1.90	8.40
South Florida	58.2	1.91	-0.10	7.49	-0.34
St. John's	4.8	5.37	4.10	20.08	17.33
Syracuse	81.9	1.21	-0.85	4.29	-2.98
Villanova	52.3	2.49	5.65	9.07	22.79
West Virginia	39.3	2.06	3.40	7.45	10.06

A positive number indicates the team more likely took the FGA inside the arc; a negative number indicates they more likely took the shot outside of the three point line. The greater the value, the greater the tendency for either inside or outside play. A value of 0.0 suggests the team did not prefer one over the other.

Same old, same old?
That those returning to play the 2012 season for Louisville, Marquette and Providence show about the same tendency as the 2011 squad(s) is no surprise. Each of those programs returns a substantial proportion of the minutes (and points...) from last season. The rather large change in tendency for DePaul and Syracuse (and even to some degree, Connecticut) however, suggests those squads lost influential contributors from their offensives, contributors significant enough to change the character of the squad's offense going into 2012. Those are roles that Demon, Orange and Huskie staffers are going to have to replace somehow.

Focusing on Pomeroy's Inside stat for a second, I developed a three year look (combined with the Inside stat for the returning squad members) to see if there were any trends. Do teams become more "inside" oriented or "outside" oriented over time?

	Pomeroy for...
Team	2009	2010	2011	2012
Cincinnati	-7.44	-0.77	4.69	10.41
Connecticut	22.59	22.70	4.57	1.36
DePaul	-1.35	-1.64	4.44	11.58
Georgetown	5.50	6.83	-3.70	-10.67
Louisville	-6.40	-3.93	-10.82	-10.86
Marquette	10.78	-0.21	18.15	16.87
Notre Dame	-8.45	3.64	6.50	1.56
Pittsburgh	3.41	13.63	15.70	7.12
Providence	4.32	-1.90	4.13	3.91
Rutgers	-0.17	-0.66	3.04	20.56
Seton Hall	2.32	3.51	-1.90	8.40
South Florida	12.79	18.55	7.49	-0.34
St. John's	3.13	2.13	20.08	17.33
Syracuse	6.19	5.99	4.29	-2.98
Villanova	9.94	9.43	9.07	22.79
West Virginia	1.89	4.84	7.45	10.06

The lime highlight connotes a new coach's first first year. Regime change may explain large year-to-year adjustments for Marquette and Providence when looking at the second year for Keno Davis (Providence) and Buzz Williams (Marquette).

New Coaches, New Systems?
The large swing for St. John's (+2.13 to +20.08), when combined with the very high percentage of returning minutes/scoring from 2010 to 2011 (89.5% and 91% respectively) provide more proof (on the off chance that the Johnnies' record and advancement to the NCAAs last season was not enough...) that Coach Lavin did dramatically overhaul the offense with the same nucleus as 2010. The job facing the St. John's staff for 2012 will be daunting. And ignore the projected 2012 inside stat, that is basically Malik Stith, the only returning veteran in 2012. While it is tempting to attribute Seton Hall's decisive move to the outside (+3.51 to -1.90) to the philosophy of Head Coach Kevin Willard (and I have no doubt that Willard, whose first head coaching job came at Iona of the MAAC, is a bit more perimeter oriented than his predessor), the graduation of John Garcia and Nunu Harvey, two players (one front court and one back court) who tended to take it to the rim when they wanted to score. Willard recruited Patrik Auda, who took more threes in one season than Garcia did in his career, as a front court replacement. Chalk the decisive shift inside for DePaul (-1.64 to +4.44) to a coach who would not tolorate the slew of bad habits (lazy shot selection, "me first/me next" approach to offense) the Demons have developed lately. Not to mention Coach Purnell went out and signed a very nice front court player in Cleveland Melvin who managed to score efficiently while taking just over 26% of the possessions and over 30% of the team shots when he was on the court.

To project where the Friars will find their offense I looked at Coach Ed Cooley's last three seasons at Fairfield. With each succeeding season Cooley's squads "moved inside"; the 2011 Fairfield squad had an Inside stat of 17.16, decidedly more inside than Providence's 4.13. Factor in a (much) lower pace and an uncharacteristic emphasis on defense (both hallmarks of Cooley coached Fairfield squads), and the Friar Nation is in for something completely different this winter. Let's hope the fans embrace the new look offense and playing style.

Quick Hits
Since winning the National Championship back in 2004 Connecticut became (along with Pittsburgh under Coach Jamie Dixon) one of the most "inside oriented" teams in the Big East. Last season's pronounced shift towards the "outside" was uncharacteristic of the Huskies. The additional shift to the outside shown in the returning squad members reflects the loss of Kemba Walker, who despite some prolific shooting from beyond the arc (the junior took 227 three point attempts), was primarily an inside scorer, who posted an 11.9 Inside stat (Pomeroy's inside expression). Walker's departure was partly mitigated by the loss of Jamal Coombs-McDaniel, the foward who posted a remarkable -14.7 Inside stat, despite playing the #3/#4. If freshman Andre Drummond logs a lot of playing time and has any impact on the offense (beyond rebounding), look for the Huskies to post a 2012 Inside stat closer to 20 than 0.

Don't count on Syracuse becoming a POT (Perimeter Oriented Team) this season. The shift outside no doubt the void left by Rick Jackson, but the staff will find a body to fill that (offensive) role. Notice the inside stat did not vary by much from 2009-2011. Coach Boeheim has been doing this long enough to know what he is looking for offensively, and someone or some combination of players in the front court rotation will provide that element this season.

Villanova's Inside stat has been among the most consistent in the conference from 2009-2011, even steadier than Pittsurgh's or Connecticut's (two very Inside-oriented teams). That dramatic shift to the inside reflected by the returning players? Not to worry, as the returning players for 2011 showed a similar dramatic turn to the inside. And that projected re-orientation did not come to pass, despite the fact that the incoming freshmen (James Bell and JayVaughn Pinkston) played a far smaller role in the offense than anticipated (James was injured for part of the season and Pinkston, suspended for the school year before the first tip off, saw no playing time at all). If indeed the veterans are expected to produce the outside firepower necessary to rebalance the Inside stat (back towards) 9, the responsibility will fall to Dominic Cheek and Maalik Wayns. As much as I would like to think those two can step into the role, I suspect this year's Wildcats will have to -- uncharacteristically since Scottie Reynolds' freshman years -- look to freshmen (like Archaf Yacoubou and Ty Johnson for example) to contribute early and often.

Louisville's persistent migration to the outside in the period 2009-11 is the byproduct of the loss of Samardo Samuels. Despite great reviews coming into the Cardinal program out of high school, Terrence Jennings had no significant impact. Count on a more mature Gorgui Dieng and maybe Stephen Van Tresse to help rebalance the offense.

On Second Thought -- Plotting Trendlines for Big East Teams (pt 3)

Are Slumps Inevitable?
While even Top 5/10 teams seem to hit a point in the season where their performance seems to be below their usual level, will that slump produce a noticible "dip" in their offensive efficiency or a "rise" in their defensive efficiency (signs of a regession in their efficiency)? For Pittsburgh and Notre Dame, the answer in 2011 remarkably was no...neither appeared to register a detectable (per a third order polynomial trendline) regression in their efficiencies. The key is that while each lost multiple games (seven between in total between them), only Notre Dame managed to lose two consecutive games -- to Marquette (79-57) on 1/10 and to St. John's (72-54) on 1/16. Those two, double-digit losses account for neither lost The conference standings/seeds for the Big East Tournament:

	W	L	Pct.
Pittsburgh	15	3	0.833
Notre Dame	14	4	0.776
Syracuse	12	6	0.667
Louisville	12	6	0.667
St. John's	12	6	0.667
Cincinnati	11	7	0.611
West Virginia	11	7	0.611
Georgetown	10	8	0.556
Connecticut	9	9	0.500
Villanova	9	9	0.500
Marquette	9	9	0.500
Seton Hall	7	11	0.389
Rutgers	5	13	0.278
Providence	4	14	0.222
South Florida	3	15	0.167
DePaul	1	17	0.056

(3T #4) Louisville

They worked though the slump early...

The roster Coach Rick Pitino started the 2011 season with could not have been the one he envisioned the preceding April/May. If the Cardinals struggled with an uncertain roster and freshmen playing crucial roles in the offense, the offensive surge through the last half of conference play, coupled with the nearly season-long improvement in defense suggested they were poised for another deep post season run. Louisville finished with a 12-6 conference record and a bye seed. They used the bye to run to the BET Championship Game, losing by three, 69-66, to Connecticut. Their opening round loss to Morehead State, 62-61, six days later was shock and had to be, to the Cardinal Nation, an especially disappointing end to their season. Attributing that faltering finish to Rakeem Buckles' season-ending ACL injury in the Pittsburgh game (#16 on the chart above) maybe be tempting, but inconsistent offensive production from Peyton Siva, Preston Knowles and Kyle Kuric (those three combined for 21 points on 7-23 shooting in Louisville's loss to Morehead State) and freshmen "burnout" of Gorgui Dieng, coupled with season-long uneven contributions from the front court returning contingent is probably a more accurate assessment.

(2 #2) Notre Dame

The offense steadily improved?!

Though the Irish lost four conference games, including three (to Syracuse and two in a row to Marquette and St. John's) in the first third of the season, they were one of two teams -- conference regular season champion Pittsburgh was the other -- whose offensive efficiency trendline never dipped below their defensive efficiency trendline. Despite the three early losses (double-digits, all three) Notre Dame's offensive efficiency improved at a rate sufficient (and a glance at the trendline suggests a constant rate as well) to keep their offensive trendline above their (at that point...) regressing defensive trendline. That offensive caught my eye because it appears to be a nearly continuous rate of improvement (a kind of season-long opposite of Villanova's season-long offensive decline) through the entire conference season. The range of improvement is truly unusual, rising from a 101/102 range at the start of the conference season to finish above 120 (122/123?) by the end. And that rate was adjusted for the competition. If Coach Mike Brey's offensive efficiency is impressive, the rising defensive efficiency through the last third of the conference season may well have provided a hint of the problems that ended Notre Dame's season. Drawing a #2 seed in the Big East Tournament, the Irish could not stop Louisville in the semi-finals, falling by six points after an overtime period on Friday night. A #2 seed in the NCAA Tournament should have given them an easier path to the Swee Sixteen, but a cold shooting night versus Florida State (coupled with an 114.2 defensive efficiency in that 62 possession game...) 71-56, in the second round.

(1 #1) Pittsburgh

The gap between defensive efficiency and offensive efficiency was promising...

Coach Jamie Dixon's squad also registered an offensive trendline that stayed above the defensive trendline all season long, despite losing three games on their way to a #1 seed in the Big East Tournament. Strong, consistent defense managed to help the Panthers weather a mid season offensive slump that bottomed out with Ashton Gibb's injury (and absence through games #11 through #13). Talib Zanna's season-ending injury (he missed the last four games of the regular season and Pittsburgh's three post season games) was not the cause of Pittsburgh's early exit from the BET and NCAAs, but for a squad that played the maximum 31 games in the regular season, Zanna's 10+ minutes in the rotation were crucial to keep McGhee and Robinson fresh. With a combination of experienced players and a deep squad, this was the season seemed to favor Pittsburgh taking a deep NCAA run, with the Final Four a realistic possibility. The Panthers earned a #1 seed (West Region), but ran into a hot Butler squad in the second round, and suffered a one point loss, 71-70, in the second round.

(3T #5) St. John's

The double intersection...but in the wrong direction

Unlike Connecticut, Coach Steve Lavin's Johnnies' "double helix" trendline was curved in the wrong directions through the season. Stumbling into the Big East season with several unexpected out of conference losses, the veteran St. John's squad appeared to "get it" after hitting the bottom in the first half of the conference season (they were 4-5 through the first nine conference games). A strong run through the second half of the conference slate (a single loss Seton Hall in game #17 capped an 8-1 run through the last nine conference games). Though DJ Kennedy had not yet ended his career with an injury, the Johnnies were already showing signs of a late season slump. Dwight Hardy, a wing complement to Kennedy, was already having problems scoring efficiently, relying more on volume shooting to meet his quota for points in the St. John's system. Kennedy's injury hastened the Red Storm's exit from the Big East Tournament (a semi-final loss to Syracuse after eliminating Rutgers in the quarter-final round), and set the stage for a bookend loss to a West Coast Conference team in the first round of the NCAA Tournament. St. John's opened the early season ESPN-sponsored television marathon in November with a televised loss Gonzaga's conference mate, St. Mary's.

(3T #3) Syracuse

Evidence of a mid-season slump...

Few expected the Orange to have a season like 2010, but Coach Beoheim's squad managed to exceed the consensus predictions for their conference record. After a solid 12-6 conference record and pull down a double-bye (a #3 seed) for the Big East Tournament. Having weathered a mid-season slump (their record in games #6 through #14 was 3-6), the Orange seemed to be poised for a deep post season run in the Big East Tournament, if not the NCAAs. Syracuse was eliminated in the semi-final round at Madison Square Garden by a streaking Connecticut team (76-71). The Selection Committee did them no favors in the NCAAs when they matched them with conference mate Marquette in the second round. Despite being favored, the Orange lost by four to Buzz Williams' Golden Eagles, 66-62.

Performance Versus Expectation -- Big East Coaches in the NCAA Tournament

Evaluating Post Season Performance...
Neil Paine over at Sports Reference/College Basketball triggered a spirited discussion earlier this week when he (a little frustrated with early exits by Pittsburgh & Texas) posted examination of the underperforming and overachieving coaches from the "64 Team Era" (1985 and forward). His first look considered the expectation of winning in the team's (and coach's) last game of each tournament in which they played, a method that used the difference in seed to determine the probability for a win. His second method, using Peter Tiernan's Performance Against Seed Expectation (PASE) is a method I have used in the last few tournaments to measure conference performances (see Dan Hanner's Day 2 piece over at RealGM.com for progress this season...not good for the Big East, someone -- or two -- will have to make a deep run to bring the conference in line with expectations). While Paine's "Best" and "Worst" lists were interesting (two former Villanova coaches make the lists...one in the Best and the other in the Worst...I leave it to the reader to speculate, or link and remove all doubt), I wanted to know how the current group of coaches were doing...

		NCAA Record
Team	Coach	App	W	L	Pct.	PASE	Diff.
Connecticut	Jim Calhoun	17	45	14	0.759	38.5	6.5
Syracuse	Jim Boeheim	22	40	21	0.656	37.0	3.0
Villanova	Jay Wright	7	12	7	0.632	10.6	1.4
West Virginia	Bob Huggins	4	7	4	0.636	5.7	1.3
Louisville/PC	Rick Pitino	6	11	6	0.647	9.8	1.3
Marquette	Buzz Williams	3	3	2	0.600	2.9	0.1
Cincinnati	Mick Cronin	1	1	1	0.500	1.2	-0.2
St. John's	Steve Lavin	1	0	1	0.000	1.2	-1.2
Georgetown	John Thompson III	5	7	5	0.583	8.8	-1.7
Notre Dame	Mike Brey	7	5	7	0.417	7.3	-2.3
Pittsburgh	Jamie Dixon	11	8	8	0.579	15.6	-4.6

I decided to apply PASE data to the NCAA record each coach compiled -- while heading Big East programs -- to see how they ranked. I sorted by most successsful to least successful. Both Jim Calhoun and Buzz Williams are highlighted in green because the record book for 2011 is, at this writing, still subject to revision (Calhoun's latest win, a 74-67 win over San Diego State is noted here). Results of games will not, however, diminish their standings versus their Big East brethren. Note that Rick Pitino has NCAA games while at Providence in addition to his run at Louisville. I counted both as part of his total (but not those NCAA tournaments he participated in as Coach of Boston University, Kentucky and pre-Big East Louisville -- I applied the same to Bob Huggins -- his Cincinnati record was not considered here.). Lack of tournament appearances while helming a Big East program explains why Stan Heath (South Florida), Oliver Purnell (DePaul) and Mike Rice (Rutgers) are not listed, though all have appearances with previous programs.

Performances, Good & Bad
That the Deans of the Conference Jim Calhoun and Jim Boeheim top the list should be no surprise. Each has had a long and successful run at their respective schools (Connecticut and Syracuse respectively). Boeheim's total does not, by the way, include his NCAA record pre-1985, probably a good thing for the record shown here. The Orange mentor's net wins versus PASE yo-yo'd around zero from 1985 to 1990, when it plunged into the negatives through 1995. Like Dixon, Boeheim's teams logged strong conference records during that period, keeping the wolves at bay. With his adoption of the 2-3 zone (and continued strong recruiting) his net versus PASE, revived reaching a peak +7.7 in 2004, the tournament after Carmelo Anthony and his only National Championship. Thanks no doubt to the Devendorf and Harris years among others, his net has again dipped as his team underperformed in four of the last five NCAA tournaments in which they participated. Jamie Dixon comes out at the bottom of this list, a paradox given the Panthers' undeniable success during the regular season and in the Big East Tournament. The Pitt fan-base excoriated him over their latest tournament loss, but a more level-headed Athletic Administration has to know he is a tremendous leader for the program and will get to the Final Four sooner or later. Dixon has made the tournament each of his eight seasons at Pitt, but it seems drawing the "inside seeds" (#2, #3, etc.) are killing him. Notre Dame's Mike Brey also under performs, but unlike Dixon, his teams have also performed inconsistently during conference play. Brey's Big East record is better than his overall. Like several other coaches (Jay Wright, Jim Calhoun & John Thompson for example), Brey coached at Delaware in a non-BCS conference, before moving over to Notre Dame, and has a few 0'fer tournament appearances on his resume. Those low seed "almost" games against high-seeded (BCS conference?) opponents probably caught Notre Dame's eye, but close doesn't count on the record book. Those wondering what happened to John Thompson III's Georgetown program should note that since the Hoya's Final Four run in 2007, they have missed the tournament completely one post season (2009), and have notched net negative appearances in the three tournaments they have appeared in. First round losses in 2010 & 2011 in particular are brutal for the program. Leaving out their CUSA records, both Rick Pitino and Bob Huggins have posted positive nets so far. Pitino however, benefits from his previous stint at Providence College. His 1987 run to the Final Four as a #6 seed started him out on his run at Louisville (in the Big East) with a +2.8 net. His first three NCAA appearances with Louisville as a CUSA entrant produced a +1.4 net, solely on the Cardinals' run to the Final Four in 2005 as a #4 seed. Louisville fans who have become nervous with Pitino's results lately have a quantitative value on which to hang their hats -- a -1.5 net versus PASE since Louisville joined the Big East.

What About Coach Wright?
Villanova's coach, like Thompson, benefits from not adding his -0.423 to his Big East record. The Wildcats struggled to make the Dance under Coach Wright, but once they broke through, in 2005, they have compiled an impressive seven consecutive trips since. Like Thompson, Coach Wright's last two appearances have put a drag on his wins versus PASE net, accounting for a net -2.02 in those two appearances.

Syracuse #02 Post Game: Consistency

The Return of Corey Stokes
The guard who could not miss Saturday could not make on Monday. The point guard who twisted and turned defenders in Chicago could not untwist his back for the second half in Philadelphia. The freshman who bombed Seton Hall into submission in a game last week was 0'fer in this game this week. The Coach talked about "finding ways, during a time when we're not making shot, to win...", and Monday night, the Wildcats did not. Senior wing Corey Stokes returned with a bang, dropping 24 points on the Orange before 18,500 (or so) fans in the Wells Fargo Center, but that was not enough to turn the result, as the Wildcats fell 65-69 on Senior Night.

The Athletic Department website posted the official boxscore and the AP wire story, "No. 15 Villanova Falls Short Against No. 17...69-64", lead with Corey Stokes' return, and the return of the "Philadelphia Kids"...Syracuse's Philadelphia Kids. Scoop Jardine and Rick Jackson combined for 38 points before their friends and relatives (and a healthy contingent of Syracuse fans), while Dion Waiters sealed the Wildcats' doom with free throws at the end of the game. The breakdown by halves...

Opponent:			Syracuse University
	1st	2nd	Game
Pace	36.5	33.4	70.0
	Offense				Defense
	1st	2nd	Game		1st	2nd	Game
Rating	73.9	110.7	91.5		79.4	119.7	98.6
eFG%	27.3	45.3	36.2		48.3	53.8	50.9
TORate	16.4	18.0	17.2		24.6	21.0	22.9
OR%	32.1	50.0	39.6		18.8	50.0	33.3
FTA/FGA	48.5	34.4	41.5		3.4	61.5	30.9
FTM/FGA	27.3	25.0	26.2		3.4	46.2	23.6
ARate	75.0	61.5	66.7		76.9	53.8	65.4
Blk%	21.2	3.1	12.3		6.9	7.7	7.3
Stl%	10.6	15.0	12.7		14.1	14.9	14.5
PPWS	0.67	0.99	0.82		0.98	1.19	1.09
2FG%	30.0	52.6	41.0		57.9	52.4	55.0
3FG%	15.4	23.1	19.2		20.0	40.0	26.7
FT%	56.3	72.7	63.0		100.0	75.0	76.5
%2FG	44.4	54.1	50.0		75.9	55.0	63.8
%3FG	22.2	24.3	23.4		20.7	15.0	17.4
%FT	33.3	21.6	26.6		3.4	30.0	18.8

Keys to Winning
The solidifies the notion that offensive shot efficiency is the single most crucial factor to winning or losing for Villanova. The 'Cats can survive a bad night of turnovers; they can overcome not getting to the line; they can survive being outrebounded...but when the shots do not drop they have yet to find or develop a Plan B. A 19.2% conversion rate for three pointers is terrible -- hit an abysmal 30% and they win by three. Free throw shooting also failed Monday night as the 'Cats hit an uncharacteristically low 63% of their attempts. Those cursing the free throw woes should know that even had the 'Cats shot to their pregame average (76.9%) they still would have lost by two.

Ineffectual Mutterings...
The Wildcats' tempo took a jump with this game, consistent with Syracuse games of the past. Though Coach Wright had the guards walk the ball up the floor, the guards clearly know how to pick Syracuse's 2-3 zone apart. A post game question to Coach Boeheim had the Orange coach admit he decided to extend the perimeter of the zone to "...knock their shooters off their spots...". Plan B, to pass to Antonio Pena at the free throw line where the power forward would have the triple option of taking his shot, kicking back out to a shooter off the screen or passing into the low post to a flashing Isaiah Armwood, found limited success as the low post pass was often mistimed. Additional games and practice should have that play working.

Records, Next Up...
Villanova's records stand at 21-7 overall and 9-6 in conference play. The Wildcats have three more games in their season-ending gauntlet, St. John's (H) up next Saturday, followed by two road games, at Notre Dame (A) and Pittsburgh (A). The Orange records stand at 23-6 and 10-6 in conference play. Syracuse will visit Georgetown, then go home to host DePaul to close the regular season.

Roster Notes
Maalik Wayns twisted his back during first half action and played about 16 minutes before the intermission. He returned, but logged only eight minutes additional in the second half. No word on whether this is day-to-day.

Guest Contributor Ray Floriani: Syracuse at St. John's

by Ray Floriani
NEW YORK CITY- It had the billing of a conference showdown. Fourth ranked and undefeated Syracuse visiting a St. John's team, once again starting to get local attention. In the end the Orange showed why they are a top five team and national contender, posting a 76-59 over St. John's at Madison Square Garden.

Thanks Mother Nature!

Both teams entered in the mid-sixty possession range. Syracuse ignited their transition, found open floor opportunities and especially the latter part of the first half and the entire second, attacked the basket.

Outside MSG on a chilly night

The efficiency numbers:

		Off.
	Poss.	Eff.
Syracuse	70	109
St. John's	71	83

The Four Factors:

		FTA
	eFG%	FGA	OR%	TO%
Syracuse	66	9	32	29
St. John's	39	26	30	23

The Garden, media time out

Interestingly both teams entered with a TO rate under 20%. That was not the case tonight. The two clubs struggled with turnovers. The Syracuse number was exceptionally high. But when you limit the opposition to 39% eFG percentage, that is something of a trade off.

Syracuse kept close watch on St. John's guard Dwight Hardy. He scored 12 points but was 4 of 15 from the floor.

St. John's got inside of the patented Syracuse 2-3 early. Eventually adjustments are made and when the Red Storm was forced to take more perimeter looks they had no answer shooting 2 of 12 from beyond the arc.

Brandon Triche and Kris Joseph did the offensive damage for Syracuse. Triche scored 15 and was effective inside or beyond the arc. The sophomore guard was 6 of 11 from the floor including 3 of 6 from three. Joseph netted 18 points on 8 of 11 shooting and added 5 boards.

Rick Jackson had another solid effort that is distinguishing him as one of the conference's better interior players. Jackson enjoyed a double-double with 12 points 10 rebounds.

Syracuse led 36-32 in points in the paint as most of the Red Storm points were produced there or on the line. Orange held a notable 12-4 edge in transition points.

Jim Boeheim of Syracuse praised his club's defensive effort, especially when the offense took time getting in gear.

Steve Lavin of St. John's was pleased with some of the things the Red Storm did, controlling the first 12 minutes and building a seven point lead. 'Sustain', was the key word as Lavin noted you need a 40 minute effort when battling a number four ranked team with the talent of Syracuse.

Syracuse shot 5 of 8 from the line compared to St. John's 15 of 20. You can't foul what you can't catch. Orange had a number of transition opportunities the second half and were able to get great open inside looks even in half court. As a result, fewer trips to the line

Numbers
Syracuse improved to 17-0 (4-0 Big East). St. John's is still a very respectable 10-5 (3-2). Syracuse had four players in double figures led by Kris Joseph with 18 points. Attendance was 14,440. St. John's was led by Justin Brownlee with 13 points. Dwayne Polee II was the only Storm starter to shoot over 50% from the floor. The freshman forward scored 7 points on 3 of 4 shooting. A good turnout following a storm that dropped 10-15 inches in the tri-state area.

Steve Lavin discusses the game with the media

Preview -- Syracuse at Seton Hall

Inconvenient Timing...
...but is there ever a good time for a visit from the Orange? First year coach Kevin Willard is about to find out why fans love the Big East (and the conference coaches hate it) -- there is never an off night. With players sidelined and those available still seeming to be on holiday, the Pirates nevertheless host the Syracuse Orange Saturday at the Rock. Syracuse is ranked #4 nationally, and puts a 15 game winning streak and a 2-0 Big East record on the line. Questions about who would step into the roles vacated by Wes Johnson, Andy Rautins and Arinze Onuaku have been pushed to the back burner (winning streaks have a habit of doing that) as the current roster has stepped up to mold their own style of play -- somewhere on the good side of the "me next" teams of 2006-2009 and the win-by-committee approach favored last season -- and risen to the top again early in conference play. If the Pirate faithful do not look back wistfully to the maelstrom of former Coach Bobby Gonzalez, it is only because those days especially the last ones, were excruciatingly painful. Give Coach Willard another few weeks and an injury or two more, and a few may well break out in a chorus of "Auld Lang Syne". Watching a new coach try to motivate an experienced (but set in their ways?) roster can be painful, and the Pirate Crew are feeling the pain right now.

	Hall		Cuse
Opponent	W/L	Diff.	W/L	Diff.
Cornell	W (H)	+24	W (H)	+20

Not much to compare via common opponents, but the Cornell result is interesting. The Hall came off a road loss to Temple and pummeled the Big Red. Both teams scored in the same neighborhood against the common opponent. Of course the Hall had a healthy Jeremy Hazell. The Oranges' best OOC win was a 14 point victory (72-58) over Michigan State (Big Ten, 9-4, RPI #35) in Madison Square Garden last month. Their best overall win to date was their last game is a 70-58 (+12) win over conference mate Notre Dame (13-2, 2-1, RPI #12). The Orange won the Legends Classic (covered by Rush the Court Live) over the Thanksgiving Weekend. The Pirates' best outing is their 64-55 win over conference mate South Florida (6-10, 0-3, RPI #102). Their loss to Arkansas in the Big East-SEC Challenge (SEC, 10-4, RPI #142) was painful.

Lineups, Rotations...
...Coach Willard uses an eight man rotation (if a nineth man checks in, it is Anali Okoloji, a 6-8 freshman front court project who shows a lot of enthusiasm), with junior point guard Jordan Theodore (6-0, 174 lbs), along with senior off guard Keon Lawrence (6-2, 177 lbs), freshman wing Fuquan Edwin (6-6, 205 lbs) at the #3, senior Jeff Robinson (6-6, 230 lbs) at the #4 and senior Herb Pope (6-8, 236 lbs) at the #5. Lawrence got the nod over senior transfer Jamel Jackson (6-3, 202 lbs) in the Pirates last outing (a 73-54 loss to Louisville), and it appears Coach Willard will try the senior guard again. Jackson will come off the bench, along with fifth year senior Eniel Polynice (6-5, 220 lbs), who decided to play his last season of D1 ball in South Orange. Patrik Auda (6-9, 225 lbs), a freshman Euro-style #4 will probably come off the bench early to spell Pope or lend more height to the front court.

Coach Jim Boeheim has not tinkered with his starting five, opening with 15 wins for the 3rd time in his 35 year tenure at Syracuse has made him a bit conservative perhaps? Sophomore Branden Triche (6-4, 205 lbs) will start at the point, with junior Scoop Jardine (6-2, 190 lbs) at the #2, junior Kris Joseph (6-7, 210 lbs) at the #3, senior Rick Jackson (6-9, 240 lbs) at the #4 and freshman Fab Melo (7-0, 244 lbs) at the #5. The first to sit will be Melo, and when he does (about five or so minutes into the first half), Coach Boeheim will call one of four numbers for his substition. Generally freshman Dion Waiters (6-4, 215 lbs) gets an early nod, with sophomore forward James Southerland (6-8, 210 lbs), freshman forward CJ Fair (6-8, 204 lbs) or (if Boeheim wants to maintain Melo's heighth along the back line) freshman center Baye Moussa Keita (6-10, 213 lbs) getting the nod. Though 15 games those five have drawn minutes (except Providence, where Fair was a DNP) even in the tight games. If the scoring margin goes beyond 20 or so, look for another four as many as four additional players to check in, led by sophomore forward Mookie Jones (6-8, 220 lbs) who has averaged double digit minutes in eight games this season.

By the Numbers, Offense & Defense...
...Syracuse tends to play for 67.9 possessions, just above the D1 average of 67.8 (adjusted according to Ken Pomeroy's Syracuse Team Page), while Seton Hall prefers to run -- 69.9 (see the Hall's page at Ken Pomeroy's site). Neither team should be uncomfortable with a higher possession rate, and though Pomeroy's 69 possession projection does not surprise, 70+ would not be shocking. A "Four Factors" comparison when Syracuse has the ball...

When Syracuse has the ball...
				FTA
	eFG%	TO%	OR%	FGA
Orange O	53.4	16.3	37.0	38.8
Pirate D	44.4	21.1	30.3	33.3

The Orange have one of the elite offenses nationally, ranked #11, according to Ken Pomeroy's Scouting Report. Syracuse is strong shooting the ball (see their eFG%, ranked #45) and getting second chance opportunities, while they are just average (considering the size and athleticism of their front court, surprising) at getting to the line. Their true strength is turnovers -- they don't. The Hall's defense, while not "elite" is rated strongly (#43) by Pomeroy. Shooting and shot defense (the Hall is ranked #45 in shot defense) should be a strength-on-strength match-up for the two teams. If the Cuse can convert easily, the Hall may have trouble keeping up, and if the Pirates can shut down Orange scoring, look for fewer transition points and more half-court offensive schemes. If Seton Hall can force turnovers, so much the better, as that would negate an Orange advantage. The "Four Factors" look at Seton Hall's offense versus Syracuse's defense:

When Seton Hall has the ball...
				FTA
	eFG%	TO%	OR%	FGA
Pirate O	45.8	18.1	29.8	32.6
Orange D	44.0	22.2	30.4	27.1

The Pirates' lack of offense is central to team woes on the court. Adjusted offense is 103.2 (per Ken Pomeroy), ranked #113 for Division 1. While among the top third of the division, they have problems scoring at crucial times during games, and have suffered through scoring droughts.

Want to Beat Syracuse? Then...
Post it on the web as soon as you figure it out. There are 12 Big East coaches very eager to get that information.
1. Slow it down, take away transition scoring opportunities. When possessions are low(er), the score is close(r). Make Syracuse pass the ball in a half-court set for a few possessions to disrupt their rhythm. Against John Beilein's relatively inexperienced Michigan team, the Orange were held to 61 possessions in a three point (53-50) win.
2. Make them miss. Shooting in college ball, like the NBA, is the strongest single determinant for victory. In the five games where the Orange have shot efficiency (eFG%) held to less than 47% their offensive efficiency was 98.6 and their margin of victory was 7.4 points. In the 10 games where they have converted at better than 47% their offensive efficiency is 121.5 with a margin of victory of 21.4 points.
3. Get physical. Syracuse's FTA/FGA rate is 38.8, at #158 they are ranked close to the mean of Division 1. They convert free throws at a fairly mediocre 66.3% (ranked #243, the bottom third in D1). In the three games where their FTA rate > 50%, their margin of victory is 8.4 points. Overall their average margin of victory is 16.9 points.

Want to Beat Seton Hall? Then...
Make them miss. It is that simple. In games where Seton Hall's eFG% is < 44%, the Pirates are 0-8. In games where the Hall's eFG% is 44.7% or higher they are 7-0. Night and day.

Finally...
...The Orange travel very well. I expect the house will be closer to 65%-35% Seton Hall, unless the fan-base is too discouraged to turn out (hopefully that will not happen). A win would certainly reverse a too long trend of Syracuse wins at Seton Hall (in the last 10 games, the margin is 8-2 Syracuse, 1-4 on the Hall's home court) and re-energize the squad. A competitive showing (Pomeroy projects an eight point Syracuse win), would suggest there are more wins than anticipated in the schedule.

I will be live blogging the game for Rush the Court tomorrow at noon. Drop by and chat if you have the chance.

Big East Road Warriors and Home Bodies

Carrots & Sticks
Maybe it is just me, but the past 2-3 seasons have seen more Big East teams abandon the cozy comforts of home court and take to the road early and often in their out of conference portion of the season. While the days of guaranteed games are hardly behind us (below the Red Line conferences and teams still need to balance budgets & above the Red Line programs crave cupcakes), a judicious application of carrots and sticks has I believe, altered the historic tendency for above the Red Line teams to open the season with a 10+ game home stand.

One Big Stick
The NCAA Selection Committee has not been reticent about snubbing homebodies in the past four Selection Sundays. They have made very public examples of high profile programs like Syracuse and Florida State, in each case citing extended home stands and/or weak out of conference (OOC) schedules as the factor that negated a decent-to-good conference (and overall) record or a solid close on the season. Coach Jim Boeheim grumbled and hinted at a conference breakup in the 2008 post season, but took his team out of the Carrier Dome for several games the following season. Program critics may wonder aloud if New York City is really "the road" for the Orange, but Syracuse has passed on several 200k play dates at the Dome every season since.

Most of These Carrots Are Green
Back in 2004 the NCAA reworked the RPI calculation to give a road win at 1.4 of a win and a road loss at 0.6 of a loss. Home win/losses are also adjusted accordingly. Ken Pomeroy ran a scathing review of the formula (despite his early disclaimer...) about a year before he decided the RPI was a useless instrument for what he wanted anyway. Pomeroy may have moved on, but the formula remains, and continues to give a bump for an on-your-opponent's-homecourt win (and hand the home team a whopping penalty for dropping a home court game also...).
TV money has a way of persuading the NCAA to do lots of things, both good and evil. Just ask the BCS bowl committees. CBS convinced the NCAA to open up their post season basketball tournament to spectacular results (both on the court and in the wallet). ESPN has underwritten most of the above the Red Line conference challenges, which entice BCS conference teams out of their home arenas and onto neutral courts to play the kind of power conference opponent they usually shun for OOC play.
ESPN and other media organizations (like the Gazelle Group) have also underwritten early season invitational tournaments, the D1 equivalent of a high school mixer. Though the tournaments have a variety of formats, one of the common features is out of conference match ups on neutral courts, and again format-dependent, a few below the Red Line teams thrown in for good measure.

Looking at the Big East teams and their schedules through December 23, it is clear some teams have embraced the spirit of the NCAA directive, while others have read the fine print carefully. And still others apparantly did not get the memo...

	Road				Overall				Pct.
	W	L	Pct.		W	L	Pct.		Gms
West Virginia	4	2	0.667		8	2	0.800		0.600
Georgetown	6	1	0.857		11	1	0.917		0.583
Seton Hall	2	4	0.333		6	5	0.545		0.545
St. John's	3	2	0.600		7	3	0.700		0.500
South Florida	1	5	0.167		6	7	0.462		0.462
Villanova	4	1	0.800		10	1	0.909		0.455
Rutgers	2	2	0.500		9	2	0.818		0.364
Cincinnati	4	0	1.000		12	0	1.000		0.333
Notre Dame	3	1	0.750		11	1	0.917		0.333
DePaul	0	4	0.000		6	6	0.500		0.333
Connecticut	3	0	1.000		10	0	1.000		0.300
Marquette	1	2	0.333		9	3	0.750		0.250
Pittsburgh	3	0	1.000		12	1	0.923		0.231
Syracuse	3	0	1.000		13	0	1.000		0.231
Providence	1	2	0.333		11	2	0.846		0.231
Louisville	1	0	1.000		10	1	0.909		0.091
	41	26	0.612		151	35	0.812		0.365

The table above gives the discussion some perspective. Note the data is sorted by percentage of the team's schedule played outside of their home arena. Ken Pomeroy's Team pages (and his judgement) is the arbiter on whether the venue is a home, neutral or away site. I count any game played at a venue other than the team's "home venue", normally (but not always) a facility located on the school's campus, or in a nearby town where the team commutes to play virtually their entire "home" schedule. Pomeroy dices a bit more finely than the generally recognized "Home", "Neutral" and "Away" categories as he can also identify a game as "semi-home" and "semi-away", identified in his game plan pages with a lower case "h" or "a" (depending on the designation). I have lumped anything not "H" as "not at home", and count it in the tabulations above and below.

On The Road...
Conference-wide, the average percentage of "not at home" games through 12/23 is 36.5%, or between four and five games, depending on the number of games played. Seven teams are at or above that average. Most readers can probably guess three-to-five of the teams who fall below the average...the usual suspects.
...The Warriors
West Virginia has taken 60% of their schedule outside of Morgantown so far, an inspiration to homebodies everywhere. Beyond the usual three game invitational tournament (the Puerto Rico Tip-Off this season -- they lost in the Championship game to Minnesota) and a traditional rivalry game with Duquesne, scheduled for Pittsburgh this season, the Mountaineers added a road game with Miami (FLA), and a game with VMI in Charlestown, WV (guarantee game or a home-n-sort of home?). Their last two OOC games will be on a neutral court and at home, so the move away from the Coliseum this season was deliberate. Given the difficulties Coach Huggins has had away from home in past seasons, is it possible he decided to get his squad aclimated to life on the road?
Georgetown's schedule is in most respects even more impressive than West Virginia's. The Hoyas packed an invitational tournament (the Charleston Classic -- the Hoyas swept), along with return dates Old Dominion and Temple, both in hostile areans. Add the away game with Memphis, and GTown put together an OOC schedule that Pomeroy ranks #25. Coach John Thompson III's squad will start conference play next week, and a title-challenging run should net Georgetown a #3 seed at least (given).
Villanova plays in the Big 5, so the Wildcats are, with three off site invitational games and two Big 5 road games, will almost always have an OOC schedule with a 35%-40% "not at home" component. Villanova's invitational this season was the NIT Tip-Off -- they lost to Tennessee in the Championship -- which, coupled with their two Big 5 away games and a run down the (Jersey) shore to Monmouth produced a 45.5% "out of the home arena" mix. Had Monmouth been ranked #103 instead of #303 by Pomeroy this would have been a solid OOC schedule and probably ranked in the mid-low hundred, rather than #207. Taking three games in hostile environs yields a higher RPI than taking those same three opponents at home. If Villanova meets preseason expectations and takes the Big East regular season title, few (and that includes the Selection Committee) will remember this stretch of the Wildcats' OOC was a bit light. Villanova has two more OOC games to complete their slate -- both at home -- Temple on 12/30, before the Wildcats begin conference play, and Maryland in mid January, a return date from the BB&T Classic last season.
After stumbling out of the gate at Princeton, Coach Mike Rice seems to have Rutgerspointed in the right direction. Their loss to St. Joseph's of the A-10, a team Pomeroy ranks #329 for experience, is puzzling, and coupled with their (neutral site) win over Auburn, their 23 point road win over Monmouth and their two point (home) win over St. Peter's, suggests the team has not yet established a consistency.
On Their Shields? -- St. John's, Seton Hall and South Florida -- for the Johnnies and Pirates, stocked with experienced players, the stategy may have seemed sound in July, but each program has been challenged with bringing a new staff, with their own ideas about offense and defense, together with an established squad. Seton Hall's Coach, Kevin Willard faces the additional problem of a sidelined star (Jeremy Hazell) and a less than 100% starter, Herb Pope, who continues to rehab from an extended hospital stay in the off season.

...The Lawyers
Cincinnati's Coach Mick Cronin took the team to Canada over the Labor Day Weekend to find some offensive options, and the Bearcats appear to have built on those wins through the front part of the season. The mix of "out of home" opponents and sites has worked to the team's advantage so far. The Bearcats' resounding win over Dayton and their 10 point win over Oklahoma are reasons for optimism, but this is one of the softer schedules in the conference (ranked #341 by Ken Pomeroy) if not all of Division 1. Two of the next three home opponents, Xavier (the last OOC opponent on the slate) and Seton Hall, should provide a better gauge on the state of the Cincinnati team.
Connecticut, Pittsburgh and Syracuse have this down to a science. All have taken the largest portion of their OOC schedules at home, leaving the home court only to take neutral site, or "friendlier" venue games with (relatively) high profile opponents. Syracuse ventured out of New York state for a change this season, taking two games in Atlantic City, NJ in addition to a game in Madison Square Garden. The opponents -- Georgia Tech, Michigan and Michigan State -- were hardly cupcakes, but the Orange were well supported by what is probably the best "traveling" fan-base in the conference. Crowds from the Boardwalk Convention Hall, about 5,500 per the announced attendance for the two games played by Syracuse, were 70%-30% Orange fans.

At Home...
...The Homebodies
Marquette and Providence are both less experienced squads (ranked #210 and #325 respectively by Pomeroy), standing reflected in their performances away from their home courts...

		Offensive					Defensive					O - D
	Pace	PPP	eFG%	TO%	OR%	FTR%	PPP	eFG%	TO%	OR%	FTR%	Diff
Providence	74.7	1.09	47.0	13.5	37.5	48.8	1.12	57.8	21.1	34.6	38.6	-0.022
Marquette	71.0	1.01	50.4	17.3	20.7	31.3	1.03	55.1	24.4	38.0	16.9	-0.022

A four factors looks at those games identifies different problems for each team, but ironically the point per possesion (PPP) differential for each (the last column) is the same. Providence has difficulty scoring (note the Friars' Offensive eFG%) and defending their opponents' shots (Defensive eFG%), but compensate offensively by limiting turnovers and securing second chance points...but they foul too much. Marquette scores more consistently, but has similar difficulties limiting their opponents' conversion. Marquette's rebounding difficulties, especially the defensive boards, is evident in their 38.0 defensive rate, which is about 6% lower than the D1 average. The decision to limit out of home games as the squads mature and continue to train, is probably a good decision. The Golden Eagles have one last road game, versus Vanderbilt, on their OOC slate. That game, and the three they will play (@Rutgers, @Pittsburgh and @Louisville) in the first 15 days of conference play, should indicate whether they can hope for a 0.500 or better road record in conference play.

...The Agoraphobes
Is Louisville trying to pay off the Yum! Center in it's first season of operation? Off season problems getting squad members qualified could not have been anticipated as the schedule was assembled, but it was probably a fortunate accident. The single foray outside of Louisville City limits (but still within the state of Kentucky) yielded a decisive win over a well regarded opponent (Western Kentuck, perennial Sun Belt Conference power), but is far too small a sample to predict how the Cardinals will do in the nine conference road games over the next two plus months.

Guest Contributor Ray Floriani: The 2010 Jimmy V Classic

by Ray Floriani
NEW YORK CITY - The Jimmy V Classic gave us another one of those March-like evenings in December. Four nationally ranked teams. A charged up atmosphere. A sellout (19,391) crowd filling Madison Square Garden. And all in the name of a wonderful cause.

The scores:

Kansas	81	Memphis	68
Syracuse	72	Michigan State	58

A sell out crowd
at Madison Square Garden

Memphis-Kansas
The Pace & Efficiency:

		Off.
	Poss.	Eff.
Memphis	75	91
Kansas	74	110

Oliver's Four Factors:

		FTA
	eFG%	FGA	OR%	TO%
Memphis	41	11	33	16
Kansas	63	20	45	30

The first four minutes were played at a 90 possession pace, too fast for either team to operate efficiently. Entering the game Kansas and Memphis both averaged possessions per game in the seventies. But the teams were over anxious, perhaps from the "large stage" provided by Madison Square Garden and ESPN, and it showed in their play. KU led 5-4 but had twice as many turnovers (4) as field goals. As the half progressed the tempo stayed fast but a little more reasonably paced.

About the only area Memphis had an edge was in turnover rate. Kansas coach Bill Self discussed those dreaded TOs as lost opportunities where his offense failed to capitalize. Going beyond the raw numbers we see the Jayhawks went from the 14:02 to 6:55 mark of the second half without a turnover. During that time they built a double digit lead that proved to be insurmountable for the Tigers to overcome. Kansas' shooting from the floor was not surprising considering their easy access to the paint where they enjoyed a 46-35 edge in scoring. They also spread the wealth with four players in double figures paced by Markieff Morris with 16 points. About the only place they did not shoot well was from the line (11 of 19 for 58%). The young Tigers, suffering their first loss, struggled on both ends. The defensive end was most upsetting and of immediate concern for Memphis coach Josh Pastner.

Memphis coach Josh Pastner
during an interview

Offensively, a good part of the Memphis offense was 'gift wrapped' by Kansas, as the Tigers enjoyed a 29-18 edge in points off turnovers.

No love for Memphis
from these Kansas fans (and Santa?)

Syracuse-Michigan State:
The Pace & Efficiency:

		Off.
	Poss.	Eff.
Syracuse	69	108
Michigan State	69	84

The Four Factors:

		FTA
	eFG%	FGA	OR%	TO%
Syracuse	46	41	36	16
Michigan State	45	17	26	25

Observations:
Tom Izzo was none too pleased. The Michigan State coach called it "gut check time" for his Spartans following the loss to Syracuse. The thing that had Izzo most perturbed was "we got our butts kicked". Specifically they were dominated to a 42-24 edge by the Orange in points in the paint. "That has never happened to us." Izzo said. "Nor will it happen again." Rick Jackson of Syracuse was the main inside threat for the Orange with 17 points 16 rebounds.

The offensive rebounding percentage and free throw rate reflect how Syracuse owned the paint. Orange had fifteen first half field goals and fourteen were in the paint. Besides Jackson's inside work Scoop Jardine (19 points) was effective on penetration. Jardine finished with 6 of 6 shooting (7 of 9 overall) from two point range.

Another highly regarded team falls to the 2-3 zone of Syracuse. Big East teams seem to fare a little better because they face it at least once a year. If you are out of the region, as Michigan State, you probably see some zones but none as tough and difficult to beat like that of Syracuse. Reviewing it on tape just doesn't do the zone justice. Athletic, quick and long defenders move, close the gaps and deflect passes in the Syracuse 2-3.

Izzo's Spartans struggled so much with the zone they reverted to what he called a "sissy jump shooting game". One that netted 7 of 24 (29%) shooting from three point range.

For those who argue zones are too passive we submit the TO rate figure. That is one quarter of Michigan State's possessions ending in a TO.

Michigan state did make a nice run to get it to a one possession game midway through the final half. Syracuse went on a run at that point to close it out. The run was aided by only two Spartan field goals from the 12 minute mark until 90 seconds remained and the issue settled.

Michigan State's best success game on late first half lobs over the back of the zone. An adjustment on the back line (being more cognizant on the baseline) by the Orange at the half ended that threat.

Jim Boeheim made the observation that he 'never had a team struggle like this in the early season." Not a bad sign given the Orange are 8-0 despite some bumps in the road.

The Syracuse mentor did note his club's offense is the area that needs some improvement. The defense has been good to date.

Durrell Summers, a 6-5 senior, led Michigan State with 18 points and was the most effective and versatile Spartan. He finished a few 'alley oops' inside and was 4 of 9 from three.

Numbers weren't eye catching but Boeheim was pleased with the play of freshmen C.J. Fair, Fab Melo and Baye Moussa Keita. A 7-foot center, Melo, "was very active," per Boeheim. "We just have to cure him of taking jump shots," Boeheim added with a touch of humor. Saddled by foul trouble Melo handed out two assists in thirteen minutes.

Special mention to Scott Peterman who runs the mensbasketballhoopscoop.blogspot.com web site. Proceeds for any e-book sold this weekend from his site, were donated to the V Foundation for cancer research.

Finishing:
Kansas put four players in double figures and Markieff Morris of the Jayhawks led the way with 16 points. Kansas is 8-0, Memphis is now 7-1.

Syracuse advanced to 8-0 while Michigan State is 6-3. Scoop Jardine led all scorers with 19 points.

It was Kansas' first win in three trips to the V Classic. Jayhawks' other two appearances were losses to Atlantic Ten and Big Five schools, Temple in 1995 and St.Joesph's just five years ago.

Jim Boeheim meets the media

Side by Side -- Seton Hall versus Syracuse (via Cornell)

Seven Degrees of Kevin Bacon...D1 Style
I think it was Ken Pomeroy who, by comparing selective game scores, was able to "comparatively reason" The Citadel to a National Championship several years ago. And that is the flaw in looking to game scores between teams A & B and teams B & C to determine if Team A is better than Team C. Oddly though, most comparative systems do variations on that same process (more sophisticated to be sure) in order to develop ranking systems. Can comparing the statistics of the Seton Hall-Cornell game and the Syracuse-Cornell tell us anything about Seton Hall and Syracuse (other than they both beat Cornell by double digits)? What if we controlled for possessions and looked at Oliver's Four Factors?

Opponent	Cornell
	Seton Hall	Syracuse
Pace	78.5	73.6
Location	Home	Home
Date	14-Nov	30-Nov
	Offense			Defense
	Seton Hall	Syracuse		Seton Hall	Syracuse
Rating	117.1	106.1		86.6	78.9
eFG%	50.8	55.2		40.2	39.8
TORate	19.1	27.2		19.1	19.0
OR%	32.7	33.3		32.3	24.0
FTA/FGA	46.2	36.2		44.3	25.4
FTM/FGA	40.0	24.1		31.1	18.6
ARate	60.7	65.5		59.1	75.0
Blk%	9.2	4.9		8.6	6.8
Stl%	15.3	16.5		8.2	5.4
PPWS	1.16	1.15		0.92	0.88

Both Big East teams hosted the Big Red just over two weeks apart. Cornell's off guard, junior Chris Wroblewski, was DNP for the Pirate game, having sprained his ankle in an exhibition game in early November. Wroblewski did return in Cornell's next games (11/17, vs. Delaware) where the squad's projected high-scorer managed a (co)team-high 13 points versus the Blue Hens. Wroblewski, despite not playing in Cornell's first two game, leads the Big Red for points scored and average points per game. One minor surprise was the pace of the Hall game. 78-79 possessions is more an exhibition-level pace than one would typically see in a (non VMI or North Carolina) game. The Orange's pace was a bit high for Coach Boeheim teams, but not by much.

Offense vs. Offense
If SHU's offense appears more effective against this opponent, consider the Pirate squad has a season of team play under it's belt going into the Cornell game, and two of common practices (Keon Lawrence, Jeff Robinson and Herb Pope are transfers who sat in 2008-09), even if the coach, Kevin Willard, is new. Syracuse is attempting to forge a unit with a new point guard, Dion Waiters splitting time with returning players Brandon Triche and Scoop Jardine, while the Orange also have to work wing/forward C.J. Fair and freshman Fab Melo (who had a very good game) into a front court rotation that includes returners Rick Jackson, Kris Joseph and Baye Keita. I suspect the Syracuse offense, once the freshman are aclimated to D1 play, can register efficiencies higher than 107, and closer to SHU's 117. How much more "growth" can the Hall expect to do with the current roster?

Defense vs. Defense
Pomeroy calculates an adjusted offensive efficiency of 97.6 (0.98 points per possession) for Cornell, suggesting that both the Hall (0.87) and Syracuse (0.79) kept Cornell well below their expected point yield per possession. Seton Hall showed a defense more stingy than the 2010 edition, reflection no doubt, of their new coach's priorities and approach to the game. Cornell's success depends significantly on their ability to convert threes, an offensive strategy that Syracuse's 2-3 zone is designed to counter, and in the Cornell game it did. The Big Red took 29 three point attempts, and converted at a disappointingly low 24.1% rate.

If the Hall and Cuse Played Today
The game would probably be played for an absurdly high 84 possessions (not going to happen, though both squads can run), and result in a very close decision that surprisingly enough would favor Seton Hall slightly. The actual outcome, given the projected margin of victory, could well hinge on where the game was played. My preview identified Seton Hall as a third quartile team and Syracuse as a second quartile team. But what do I know?

Other Considerations
1. The two are slated to play a mirror series this season, with the first game coming January 8 at the Rock (Pomeroy currently projects that as a one point win for Syracuse) with the return engagement January 25 at the Carrier Dome (which Pomeroy projects as a nine point win for the Cuse).
2. Jeremy Hazell, who scored 28 points in 28 minutes when the teams met on 11/14, broke his wrist (non shooting arm) and will most likely not be cleared to play until early January. Chances he will miss the first game are slim, but he will be rusty.