Rising Seniors -- Eight to Watch

What I Am Looking For
Last March's "All-Big East'rs" Ashton Gibbs, Darius Odom-Johnson and Kris Joseph won't make this list. Neither will Kevin Jones or Tim Abromaitis. Everybody knows them, and everyone will have them on their "Best in" or "Top" list in the next two and a half months. The Big East coaches and AP writers will vote them to a variety of "All" preseason teams. They have already been a bullet on ESPN's "Keys to the Game" pre-game analysis, and will probably continue their bullet status this season. They made their marks during their freshmen or sophomore or junior seasons. Those "name" guys decided to come back and most will reap the rewards of returning to finish their education and eligibility. But every season a Hilton Armstrong, or an Andy Rautins, a Jon Wallace or a Dante Cunningham lands in the national press (and picks up a post season Big East award or two) seemingly out of nowhere. Invisible to many except their team's fans, these seniors tend to start somewhere back in that freshman pack, or labor in the vinyards of a low ranking team, but unlike their classmates, they (and their team?) improve quietly every season. By Pomeroy's classification system they may start as a "Role", "Limited Role" or even "Invisible" player, and grow into a "Major" player or "Go-to Guy" over the course of their four years. Pomeroy discusses growth "probabilities" in "Putting Individual Efficiency into Perspective" over at The Basketball Prospectus in 2007. These guys tend to push at the upper limit of their growth curve each season. The Jon Wallaces and Orinze Onuakus -- are drawing a good share of the minutes at their position going into their senior seasons and they are drawing somewhere between 18% - 20% of the possessions when they are on the floor. They may lurk off the MSM's radar, but their coaches and teammates know who they are, look for them on the floor...and trust them with the ball.

			On Offense...
Player	School	%Min	ORtg	%Poss	%Shot	PPWS
Jae Crowder	MU	68.8	120.1	19.8	22.6	1.13
Dion Dixon	'Nati	66.8	112.7	22.4	24.6	1.08
Chris Smith	'Ville	63.8	110.0	19.7	18.9	1.12
Yancy Gates	'Nati	67.2	108.8	22.9	24.3	1.07
Jason Clark	GTown	76.1	107.4	20.5	22.1	1.20
Nasir Robinson	Pitt	54.8	103.5	21.9	20.5	1.10
Scott Martin	NDU	73.0	101.0	18.5	20.1	1.03
Jordan Theodore	Hall	75.0	98.6	22.8	20.3	1.05

Dion Dixon fits the profile, each season (except for Lance Stevenson's single year in the Queen City...) his role with the Bearcats has grown. Securing 22.4% of the possessions and just under a quarter of the shots last season should have put Dixon on an "All" team if not for a slew of seniors (with better name recognition?) ahead of him in line. And also a Bearcat or two who drew conference and media attention. For Cincinnati to rub shoulders with the conference elites (seeds #1-#4) in 2012, Dixon and Gates (and rising sophomre Sean Kirkpatrick along with a few others...) will have to have very good seasons. And while we are in southeastern Ohio, Yancy Gates is another name that will appear on a preseason list or two. Gates, whose self-made demons held him back for a couple of seasons made significant strides last season. This time around the forward/center should do even better. vbtn is firmly in the pro-Gates Line this preseason. Marquette's Jae Crowder is another Buzz Williams JUCO/transfer the fourth year coach has a habit of pulling out of thin air (or so it seems). Two seasons of conference play may not be enough to turn heads among the conference's large media following, but every one of Marquette's conference opponents know they will have to account for him in their gameplans. Given Coach Pitino's penchant for stockpiling players are certain positions, Chris Smith has been victimized a bit by competition with rising junior Mike Mara and fellow rising senior Kyle Kuric. If Smith, whose shot and possession rates (Shot% & Poss%) are on the high side of "role player" will probably need more playing time and opportunities to score to grow into a major contributor or significant contributor level player. Preston Knowles is gone, but freshman Wayne Blackshear will press him for playing time at the #2. .

			Four Factors...
						FTA
Player	School	%Min	eFG%	OR%	TO%	FGA
Jae Crowder	MU	68.8	54.9	9.5	8.6	38.3
Dion Dixon	'Nati	66.8	49.1	5.1	13.0	38.4
Chris Smith	'Ville	63.8	53.4	6.7	18.9	33.6
Yancy Gates	'Nati	67.2	51.7	9.3	12.7	42.0
Jason Clark	GTown	76.1	57.2	4.7	21.0	25.9
Nasir Robinson	Pitt	54.8	54.8	9.5	19.8	54.3
Scott Martin	NDU	73.0	49.1	4.0	16.8	32.0
Jordan Theodore	Hall	75.0	47.5	2.6	22.4	33.6

An offensive rebounding rate of 9.3 and higher is a Top 500 ranking per Ken Pomeroy -- Gates, Crowder and Pittusburgh's small forward Nasir Robinsin are reasons their teams rank in the upper half of the conference for rebounding. Robinson's offensive rating is hurt by his turnovers (and lack of playing time due to an absent three point shot?) a byproduct of his close-to-the-basket play, but with more mobile front court mates and versatile forwards, Robinson should see more time this season. Crowder's and Gate's lack of turnovers, despite their play in the front court is encouraging, especially when considered with their offensive rebounding, each presents some strong scoring opportunities for their teams. For Jordan Theodore to garner more favorable recognition in the conference, he will need to dampen his turnover rate, as will Georgetown wing Jason Clark, whose outstanding shot efficiency (eFG% -- 57.2%) is tempered by his tendency to lose the ball.

		Miscellaneous...
Player	School	Ast%	DR%	Blk%	Stl%
Jae Crowder	MU	11.4	18.7	3.3	2.7
Dion Dixon	'Nati	15.0	8.3	0.1	2.4
Chris Smith	'Ville	18.0	13.3	0.4	2.0
Yancy Gates	'Nati	10.3	21.1	5.1	1.8
Jason Clark	GTown	11.7	11.2	0.7	2.9
Nasir Robinson	Pitt	10.5	13.7	0.4	1.2
Scott Martin	NDU	12.2	13.8	1.0	1.0
Jordan Theodore	Hall	30.4	8.6	0.2	2.5

Scott Martin had to sit a year as a Purdue transfer. The rising senior suffered an injury on the eve of the 2010 season, and came into 2011 off of a two year layover. Though he was rusty last season, as his rebounding suggested, and fitting into a rotation that had Ben Hansbrough and Tim Abromaitis available offensively no doubt limited his scoring oppportunities, Scott has another year to condition and as Hansbrough has graduated, should see a larger role in Notre Dame's offense. Theordore's assist rate is impressive and his defensive rebounding rate is not too shabby for a point guard. Now if he can get the turnovers under control and improve his shooting, the Hall will benefit immensely in conference play.

Hits & Misses...Last Year's List
Marshon Brooks exploded offensively and became one of the few bright spots (along with a win over Villanova...) in Providence's otherwise lackluster season. Brooks was named to the All-Big East First Team, along with "vbtn Watch List" mate Dwight Hardy from St. John's (who also took home the Big East's "Most Improved Player" award). Most of the Johnnies' limelight however, shone on "vbtn Watch List" member DJ Kennedy, who hit a runner at the buzzer against Pittsburgh in the Garden that put St. John's back into the Top 25 (and sealed their invitation to the Dance?). A season-ending injury three weeks later sidelined Kennedy and took a bit of wind out of the Red Storm. Rick Jackson and Brad Wannamaker made the All-Big East Second Team, with Jackson earning the "Defensive Player" award and Wannamaker honored with the conference's "Sportsmanship" award. Though Chris Wright was named to the All-Big East Third Team, the Hoyas' season sputtered at the end, giving Wright no opportunities for heriocs. The same can be said for Villanova's Antonio Pena, also named to the "vbtn Watch List". Though the bfc started the entire season, the Wildcats looked in vain for low post offense when their perimeter players were slowed (or sidelined) with nicks and dents. The Wildcats were trapped in a death spiral as the regular season slipped into the post season. Scoop Jardine decided to take all of his eligibility and return for a fifth year. Gilbert Brown had a decent season, though he did not have the breakthrough that fans predicted each of the four seasons he spent with the Panthers. Caught covering Butler's Shawn Vanzant late in their second round game, Brown could not prevent Vanzant's pass to Adam Smith whose bucket put Butler up for good, and sent Pittsburgh home in the first weekend.

Georgetown University Post Game: Inside Game

Life in the Big East
After directing the tip-off to Fisher Mouphtaou Yarou grabbed a defensive rebound off a Jason Clark miss, grabbed a tipped pass and hit a reverse layup for the game's first score. An offensive rebound two possessions later that elicited a foul from Hoya center Julian Vaughn and the sophomore center was on the line for two. He made both, and grabbed a second defensive rebound two (Hoya) possessions later that ended with a Corey Stokes three point miss. Yarou picked up his first personal foul about a minute later and headed to the bench. He came back in, missed two attempts on consecutive possessions about seven minutes later, and, as the Wildcats collectively settled into an offense that consisted of a series of jump shots from 14 feet and farther out, did not touch the ball again in the first half. Although the center re-emerged for a dominant sequence about halfway through the second half, he committed foul number four with seven minutes to go and went back to the bench, not to see the court again until the last three minutes of the game.

The Villanova blogosphere registered a collective groan, as VUHoops.com posted a recap with player/team grades..."Hoping for a good recruiting class" is a grade? The Nova Blog posted a video sequence from "The Shining" -- Jack Nicholson chopping through the bath room door to get to Talia Shire -- which is Chris' reaction to Austin Freeman. A reaction very different, but complementary in it's own right, from Coach Wright who cited Freeman's 30 point performance in his post game press conference and concluded with the aside "I love him, and he's a great kid too". The Hoya blogosphere has a few early posts, including the Hoya Prospectus recap with a breakdown by halves similar to vbtn's (I wrote the first paragraph above before going over to check out Brian's recap -- he indicates the "Let 'em take jumpers" is a defensive strategy the Hoyas also used against the Johnnies last week...) and The Casual Hoya posted a quick recap & look ahead as well. The Athletic Department website posted the official boxscore and the AP wire story, "No. 8 Wildcats Upended by No. 21 Georgetown, 69-66". The breakdown by halves...

Opponent:		Georgetown University
	1st	2nd	Game
Pace	29.9	32.9	62.7
	Offense				Defense
	1st	2nd	Game		1st	2nd	Game
Rating	87.0	121.7	105.2		107.1	112.6	110.0
eFG%	37.0	53.7	45.4		57.7	57.5	57.6
TORate	10.0	18.3	14.3		16.7	27.4	22.3
OR%	16.7	40.0	28.9		23.1	33.3	27.3
FTA/FGA	29.6	59.3	44.4		7.7	75.0	37.0
FTM/FGA	22.2	40.7	31.5		7.7	70.0	34.8
ARate	40.0	66.7	54.5		76.9	81.8	79.2
Blk%	18.5	3.7	11.1		7.7	10.0	8.7
Stl%	3.2	9.2	6.3		3.5	12.1	8.1
PPWS	0.84	1.16	1.01		1.19	1.36	1.28
2FG%	41.7	41.2	41.5		52.9	58.8	55.9
3FG%	0.0	50.0	38.5		44.4	33.3	41.7
FT%	75.0	68.8	70.8		100.0	93.3	94.1
%2FG	76.9	35.0	51.5		56.3	54.1	55.1
%3FG	0.0	37.5	22.7		37.5	8.1	21.7
%FT	23.1	27.5	25.8		6.3	37.8	23.2

Forget the highlighting...Brian Lerner does a nice job of highlighting the good and bad, just remember to "see" red where he has green, and green where he has red. paint it all red. For the second game running, the pace was surprising. 30 possessions for the first half is stunning, possibly the lowest possession half played by the 'Cats this season. Only the Pennsylvania game, at 62 possessions, matches this 62.7 (63) game for lowest number of possessions. The Wildcats were able to force turnovers, particularly in the first four minutes of the game (see below) and during the last two minutes of the game when the Hoyas committed two turnovers and committed personal fouls as the Wildcats trimmed the lead to a single possession. But Villanova did not blunt the Hoyas' shot efficiency, allowing a 57.6% eFG% for the game, and a disappointing 57%+ for each half. No halftime adjustment appeared in the offering. Villanova's inability to get offensive rebounds, especially in the first half was also disappointing.

Observations
1. Austin Freeman posted 30 points in a performance eerily similar to many that Scottie Reynolds had over his career. And like Reynolds, Freeman stepped up as the "go to" guy in the opponents' arena. During the last two minutes of the game every Hoya ball handler looked around to find Freeman, and the senior did not disappoint. If he could not take the shot he found the teammate who could. After Freeman dropped his last free throw an NBA scout sitting next to me commented on his "calm and professional demeanor", especially with the game on the line. Only one other Georgetown player, Jason Clark, scored in double digits -- 10 points on the nose (though Nate Lubick and Julian Vaughn scored eight and nine respectively).
2. Corey Fisher and Maalik Wayns shared scoring honors for the Wildcats, logging 15 points each as an ironic counterpoint to Freeman. Two other Wildcats, Antonio Pena (10) and Corey Stokes (13), also scored 10 or more points. Stokes, 4-10 with 3-6 three pointers, converted at an efficient 55% eFG% despite suffering a turf toe injury in the game's opening minutes.

The First Four Minutes
What can the first four minutes tell us about the half/game? With respect to today's game, not much apparently. In the first half, the Wildcats took the tip-off and the two teams ran off six possessions in the game's first four minutes...

	FGM	FGA	FTM	FTA	Pts	Poss	PPP	OReb	TO
Villanova	4	5	2	2	10	6	1.67	1	0
Georgetown	2	5	0	0	5	6	0.83	0	1

Though the tempo favored the Hoyas (6 possessions tracks for 30 on the half), the effieincy definitely seemed to favor the Wildcats. Villanova however turned over their next two possessions, and Georgetown out scored Villanova 27-16 over the last 16 mintues of the half.

The second half produced seven possessions in the first four minutes, but the scoring so favored the Hoyas that Coach Jay Wright called a timeout to regroup his squad...

	FGM	FGA	FTM	FTA	Pts	Poss	PPP	OReb	TO
Villanova	3	4	0	0	8	7	1.14	0	3
Georgetown	4	4	1	1	9	7	1.29	0	3

With seven possessions, the half was on pace for 35 possessions apiece; that "slowed" to 32 over the next 16 minutes. Unlike the first half, this four minute snapshot did accurately "foretell" a more offense-oriented half. The Wildcats went on to outscore the Hoyas 32-28 through the end of the game.

Records, Next Up...
Villanova's records drop to 17-4 overall and 5-3 in conference. The 'Cats are now off of Pittsburgh's pace by 2 games. Georgetown extends it's winning streak to five games and pushing north of 0.500 in conference play for the first time this season. The Hoyas are 16-5 overall, 5-4 in conference play. Villanova readies for another home game with Marquette on Wednesday (2/2), while Georgetown heads home to host Louisville on Monday (1/31).

Guest Contributor Ray Floriani: Georgetown at Seton Hall

by Ray Floriani

NEWARK, NJ - Forget another miserable day of snow, ice and slush. These games are what make Winter enjoyable, or at least bearable. Georgetown edged Seton Hall 80-75 in entertainingly competitive Big East meeting at the Prudential Center.

Outside the Rock
post game

Efficiencies for the game:

		Off.
	Poss.	Eff.
Georgetown	69	116
Seton Hall	68	110

Both teams opt for a low to mid sixties pace. The tempo was a little faster because of the Hall's transition game, more on that later.

The Four Factors:

		FTA
	eFG%	FGA	OR%	TO%
Georgetown	58	29	40	22
Seton Hall	47	16	42	12

A very good offensive performance (shooting wise) was offset by Georgetown's occasionally sloppy play that resulted in an over the limit TO rate. On the other side the Hall took great care of the ball but was not as strong from the field. The pirates were 2 of 12 from three. In addition they were a subpar 11 of 18 from the charity stripe. That 61% free throw mark was significant.

The Rock from the baseline

A Quick Start
At the half the Hall trailed 38-31. They came out the second half and went on a 21-7 tear over the first 8 minutes to built a seven point lead. The Pirates got out and ran, made a number of shots in transition and by converting, were able to utilize their full court pressure to speed the Hoyas up and force turnovers. Seton Hall coach Kevin Willard naturally was pleased with the 8 minute start but did add that better free throw shooting following that run, could have increased the lead more.

Poise
The home team is on a game altering run. The crowd is ecstatic and you are facing your second conference road game in four days. The time was ripe to fold. Georgetown did not and maintained composure when needed most.

At the Big East media day coach John Thompson III said he is not really involved in tempo-free breakdowns. In a distant way he is. Thompson noted that when Seton Hall was building their lead, each time out, he reminded his club the time left and what they could do. "We know as a team over the given minutes just what we can accomplish in that time," Thompson said. "And there was a lot of time remaining."

Pope Fouled Out.
Herb pope had a solid 16 point 9 rebound effort for the Hall. He fouled out late in the game, a significant juncture, as Georgetown's Julian Wright (11 points 6 rebounds) was defended by a smaller Jeff Robinson.

Freeman
Austin Freeman showed why he was chosen pre-season Big east Player of the Year. The Georgetown senior guard scored a game high 28 points on 10 of 13 shooting. Freeman produced when needed most. "He is a fun player to watch," Willard said of Freeman. "He hit some big shots in the stretch but he is fun to watch the way he moves without the ball." And what he does when it is in his possession.

Final Numbers
Georgetown improved to 14-5 and 3-4 in the Big East. Seton Hall is 8-11 (2-5). Jeff Robinson led the Hall with 15 points. Jordan Theodore had a strong 17 point , 6 assist outing. Jeremy Hazell had 15 points. Hazell shot 5 of 16 from the floor and Willard pointed out his senior guard will need a few weeks to 'get his legs back' following a good two month layoff due to the injury.

Classic Response
With roughly 10 seconds to go the Hall trailed by three and Theodore hit a corner jumper near the Hall bench. It was clearly a two. So much so the officials did not even need a monitor to verify. Willard was asked his thoughts on the shot. "It definitely was a two (pointer)," he said. "If I thought it was a three and the officials called it a two I might have acted like my predecessor," he said jokingly before adding," I'll probably get a phone call in the morning on that one."

John Thompson III, flanked by
(Left to Right) Austin Freeman and Chris Wright
Not pictured Julian Vaughn

greyCat's comments
The first half at 32 possessions, was a more typical pace for the two teams. Seton Hall struggled to a 0.95 points per possession efficiency (0.95 * 100 = 95.1 rating) while Georgetown scored about a 1.17 points per possession (1.167 * 100 = 116.7). Considering their shooting efficiency (66.7% eFG%) the Hoyas should have been up by more than seven points (38-31), but they did not value the ball as a 21.5% turnover rate atests, and, given a paltry 27.3% offensive rebounding rate, were limited to one shot only on many possessions.

With the clock at 4:00 in the second half and the home team with a five point lead, Georgetown began to chew into the lead for the final time. They switched Clark on Jeremy Hazell ("...no one person can guard him...too crafty...too talented..." -- John Thompson) and tightened the defense one more time. Of the last series of possessions for each team...

Team	FGM	FGA	FTM	FTA	Pts.	Poss.	ppp
Georgetown	3	3	9	10	15	8	1.88
Seton Hall	2	7	1	3	5	8	0.63

The Hoyas implemented a "deny Hazell the ball" defense, to the point where, up three pionts with 5 ticks left on the clock, Thompson decided to put Keon Lawrence on the line rather than risk a 3 point attempt by Jeremy Hazell. When debating the risks that a might entail if Lawrence made the first but missed the second, Thompson gave the go ahead "because Julian promised me he would get the rebound".

2010-11 Preview -- Georgetown Hoyas

Too Busy for the Details?
Georgetown may have lost All-Big East First Team forward Greg Monroe, but they return virtually everyone else on the squad that recovered to 10-8 record after 2009's disastrous 7-11 finish. The squad looked very strong through much of January, lost it's focus after thrashing Villanova on February 3, but recovered in March to take the last regular season game and then run to the Big East Tournament Finals where they lost on the last possession to West Virginia. Just when everything seemed to be back on track the Hoyas dropped another head scratcher, in the first round of the NCAA Tournament no less, to Ohio University. The 2011 squad is among the most experienced in the Big East, and should be in a position to learn from last season's ups and downs. If they can control the boards like the teams of 2007 and 2008, they will run through the conference...and the NCAA field.  Prognosis -- A 1st quartile finish.

3 Years At a Glance

	Returning...
	2011	2010	2009
%Min	82.2	68.5	43.7
%Pts	77.8	67.7	46.9
%FGM	77.5	70.1	45.4
%3FGM	96.2	46.6	62.1
%OReb	73.1	70.6	32.5
%DReb	65.7	69.4	46.8
%TReb	67.7	69.8	43.0

As dominant a player as Greg Monroe could be on occasion, the gap between returning minutes and returning points (and returning FGMs, etc.) is a pretty modest 4%. For those who wonder, with so many wings and backcourt veterans returning, whether the offense will "migrate" to the perimeter, returning 3FGM% suggests the Hoyas will indeed take their game outside. But that may not be true if Julian Vaughn and freshman Nate Lubick become very productive (and therefore more attractive offensive options).

	According to Pomeroy...
	2009-10		2008-09		2007-08
	#	Rank	#	Rank	#	Rank
BE O Rtg	109.7	7	101.4	12	104.3	8
BE O eFG%	56.2	1	51.0	7	52.7	3
BE O Reb%	30.0	T14	34.1	9	31.2	13
BE D Rtg	103.5	6	102.9	7	93.1	2
BE D eFG%	49.9	9	49.1	8	42.5	1
BE Opp Reb%	32.9	T4	36.7	12	32.0	6

When the Hoyas went to the Final Four (2007) their Big East conference (only) offensive rating was a super 115.6, the best in conference, while their defensive rating was a good (but not great) 98.6, good for #5. The Hoyas can scrape by with an above (but not by much) average defense, but they cannot do well with an unproductive offense. For the offense to work Georgetown needs efficient shot conversion (eFG%). Offensive rebounding does not hurt (in 2007 they were ranked #1 in the conference), but efficient shot conversion is essential.

	For the Record...
	2009-10			2008-09			2007-08
	W	L	Pct.	W	L	Pct.	W	L	Pct.
Overall	23	11	0.676	16	15	0.516	28	6	0.824
Big East	10	8	0.556	7	11	0.389	15	3	0.833
Post Season?	NCAA Rnd #1			NIT Rnd #1			NCAA Rnd #2

Georgetown has had a bumpy ride since their 2007 Final Four season. That run yielded a few nice recruiting classes. Returning the program to the Elite Eight-level is the next step.

The Hoyas' Nucleus
Coach Thompson can look to a nice distribution of experience and talent this season. The problem is depth among his veterans -- they are good, but the squad is not (and has never been under JT3) a Noah's Ark with two at every position. Thompson should have the luxury of being able to work the large freshmen class into the mix and give them time to learn his system.

On Offense
Player	Min%	ORtg	Poss%	Shot%	eFG%	OR%	PPWS	FTR%
Chris Wright	87.8	111.7	23.2	24.4	52.6	2.1	1.14	35.7
Jason Clark	83.6	111.3	16.0	16.8	60.6	4.6	1.25	24.3
Austin Freeman	83.5	119.8	21.5	25.3	60.2	3.7	1.27	25.3
Julian Vaughn	56.6	104.3	19.3	17.9	58.4	9.9	1.17	34.2
Hollis Thompson	48.8	111.0	13.2	13.8	56.6	5.3	1.15	32.0
Jerrelle Benimon	25.8	83.1	11.1	7.0	40.9	7.8	1.06	63.6
Henry Sims	14.0	83.8	16.0	10.3	50.0	7.2	0.95	88.5

The nucleus of this team, for better or worse, will be Freeman, Wright, Vaughn and Jason Clark. Hollis Thompson should have a good year and those five, along with Jerrelle Benimon (who should also improve over his freshman season efficiency numbers and see more playing time) will see the floor far more than any of the freshmen...if all goes well.

On Defense
Player	Min%	DR%	Ast%	TO%	Stl%	Blk%
Chris Wright	87.8	8.0	22.6	16.5	0.8	2.5
Jason Clark	83.6	9.5	10.5	21.9	0.6	2.6
Austin Freeman	83.5	8.8	14.4	15.3	0.7	1.6
Julian Vaughn	56.6	13.8	12.1	23.6	7.0	0.8
Hollis Thompson	48.8	9.4	8.5	17.7	2.3	2.8
Jerrelle Benimon	25.8	12.5	5.4	35.1	3.1	1.2
Henry Sims	14.0	17.0	6.2	33.3	6.9	0.9

The key stat is Assist Rate (Ast%)...Chris Wright has a 22.6 rate and will have to maintain it this season. But that is not enough. When the low post and/or the wing players are shoing nearly as many assists as the pg, the GTown faithful know the offense is getting good ball movement and the points should follow easily.

Significant Additions
Coach Thomspon brings in a recruiting class that ranks in the top 3 for the conference. The brightest star in the group is Nate Lubick, a 6-9, 225 pound #4 out of Southborough, Massachusetts. Lubick is ranked #12 at the power forward position, and #48 overall by Scout, Inc. According to Scout, Lubick has a large repetoire of low post moves which when combined with jumpers that he can take off of both ball and down screens, suggest he has the kind of skill set that will fit well with Georgetown's variation on the Princeton Offense. 6-2, 175 pound point guard Markel Starks is, ranked at #75 (by Scout), the second Top 100 player in the class. He should get a good year as Chris Wright's understudy. Moses Abraham, a 6-9, 240 pound center and Aaron Bowen, who at 6-5 and 185 pounds, is something of a Hollis Thomspon-type wing player. Abraham is a long range project who may, if he shows progress, consign Henry Sims to a deep spot on the bench.

Explode If...
1. The Hoyas play as a team. For a change. Georgetown has some excellent talent, and when that talent played to their level, even if they did not play as a team, the Hoyas could win, but when the talent did not play well, the team failed. Early season "head scratching" losses happen when players are learning their roles within Coach Thompson's offensive (and defensive) structure. Late season flameouts occur when players are tired of playing with each other. This team should have fewer stress points in the lineup, and ought to enjoy playing together more than Hoya teams of the past two seasons. The team has had great parts, but the whole has not greater than the sum of those parts.
2. Either Jason Clark or Julian Vaughn has a breakout season. Clark's sophomore possession and shot rate improved marginally over the numbers he posted his freshman season, even as his playing time increased dramatically and his (offensive) efficiency improved. He needs to maintain or continue to improve his efficiency even as he takes a larger role in the Hoya offense. The ceiling (about 95% confidence) is around 24%, a "Significant Contributor" to borrow Pomeroy's label. To break out, Clark would have to push beyond that ceiling, into the 25% or 26% range. Vaughn, a Florida transfer in 2009 who received a waiver to play immediately (in the 2009 season), has improved his possession and shot rates, even as his playing time even as his efficiency improved over the past two seasons. The Georgetown system works best when the Hoyas have the kind of bfc who can provide a low post presence and dominate the offensive boards. Vaughn, whose offensive ceiling (95% confidence) is borderline "Major Contributor" (Pomeroy's label again) may be the more promising prospect given team needs.
3. Both Clark and Vaughn play to their 95% confidence ceiling. Again, team play.

Implode If...
1. Injuries take any of Freeman, Wright, Clark or Vaughn out of the line-up for an extended period of time. The Hoyas are not deep, even with the entering class. The staff is not, beyond Lubick, looking for a missing piece among the rookies. Should Vaughn (or Sims?!) emerge as a low post force, Lubick's impact may be smaller than anticipated.
2. Freeman and Wright each have terrible seasons. The two wings need to be efficient to draw attention and defense out to the perimeter. If the defense collapses into the paint, Vaughn and Lubick will have no room to manuever, nor rebound.
3. Chemistry seemed to be a problem in 2009, and proved to be a huge drag on the squad. The program, whose offense requires a lot of work as a unit, may be more sensitive to the dynamic of a larger recruiting class that requires the team mix different personalties and playing styles while learning to work together.

Crucial Run/Bellweather Games
The Hoyas always seem to have a "Huh!?" game or two early in the season, and their opener at Old Dominion may be a prime candidate. A road trip to Charleston for the Classic (and a matchup with either Charlotte or NCSU) followed by another road game in not-really-neutral Kansas City, Missouri (to face the Missouri Tigers) closes out November. An early December road game at Temple, an A-10 Tournament Champion and NCAA invitee two seasons running should be the Hoyas best early test. Emerge unbeaten from that schedule, and Georgetown will have a nice spot in the AP Top 10 going into the Big East season.

Georgetown takes a trip to St. John's and then returns home to face West Virginia and Pittsburgh back-to-back in early January, in what might be the hardest three game set the Hoyas will have in the regular season. If Georgetown is 5-0 in conference play on 1/13, they should have the momentum to go up to Villanova near the end of January undefeated in conference play. A pair of three game sets at the back end of the season may be the make-or-break for Georgetown. The first (and greater challenge) begins with the road game with the Orange on 2/9 that could easily be featured during ESPN's Rivalry Week. The Hoyas return home to host the Golden Eagles, and take to the road for a game in Storrs, Connecticut. 2-1 may be likely, but 3-0 would confirm the Hoyas are back. If Cincinnati is hot this season, Georgetown's two games in just over two weeks could prove to be a curse. The Syracuse game (in Washington) sandwhiched between the 'Nati games will not. If Georgetown is playing for the #1 seed in the Big East Tournament, those last three games may not be especially troublesome for the Hoyas. But as before, 2-1 is a distinct possibility, with the Syracuse game the spoiler.

Preview -- Georgetown University

The Wildcats and Hoyas meet for the 67th time at the (Wachovia) Center in downtown Philadelphia at noon on Sunday. Georgetown holds the edge, 39-27, and have won the last five meetings, four of those games by five points or less. The Hoyas, ranked #12 by the AP poll, bring Wooden Award nominee junior forward Greg Monroe to counter #4 ranked Villanova's own Wooden Award nominee, senior guard Scottie Reynolds. And the big question is, "Where is Bob Donato on Sunday?"...

Common Opponents, Good Wins, Bad Losses...
The 'Cats (15-1, 4-0, #9 RPI) and Hoyas (13-2, 4-1, #18 RPI) share several opponents this year:

	Nova		GTown
Opponent	W/L	Diff.	W/L	Diff.
Temple	L (A)	-10	W (H)	+1
DePaul	W (H)	+25	W (A)	+17
Marquette	W (H)	+2	L (H)	-3
Marquette	W (A)	+2

Georgetown hosted Temple in their second game of the season, taking a 46-45 decision. Villanova played the Owls in mid-December (12/13), dropping a 75-65 decision. Temple (A10, 15-3, 3-0 #9 RPI) is Georgetown's best win to date, though Butler (Hzn, 13-4, 6-0, #19 RPI) and Connecticut (11-5, 2-3 #16 RPI) will most likely draw some attention from the Selection Committee as well. The Hoyas have no bad losses, Marquette (10-6, 1-3, #76) is the lowest (RPI) ranked opponent they have lost to to date. Villanova has a number of solid wins, counted among them Louisville (12-6- 3-2, #39 RPI), Dayton (A10, 13-4, 2-1 #32 RPI) and Mississippi State (SEC, 13-3, 1-1, #49 RPI) the best so far. Mississippi State and Dayton were beaten on a neutral court at the Puerto Rico Tip off in November. Villanova's sole loss is to Big 5 rival Temple on 12/13.

Lineups, Rotations...
Coach Thompson set his starting five in the first game of the season, and has stayed with a three guard set of Chris Wright (junior, 6-1, 208 lb) at the #1, Austin Freeman (junior 6-3 ½, 227 lb) and Jason Clark (soph, 6-3, 170 lb) on the wing, anchored in the front court by Julian Vaughn (junior transfer, 6-9, 247 lb) and Greg Monroe (soph, 6-11, 247 lb) ever since. Monroe may draw the attention (assorted NBA scouts & the Los Angles Athletic Club), but Freeman and Wright power the Hoyas' offense. Freeman has a scorching 44.5% accuracy on three point shots (25-56), while Wright, with a forward-like FTrate of 34.4%, drives the lane, gets to the line (2nd on the team behind Monroe) and converts, at a 81.5% rate. Niki Mersheriakov's transfer (to Wake Forest?!) makes an already short rotation even shorter. Hollis Thompson (a freshman 6-6, 180 pound forward) has consistently logged double digit minutes, posting a career-high 16 points against Lafayette in late November. He will most likely be first off the bench, followed by Henry Sims (a sophomore, 6-10 226 pound center), who has logged time in all but one (Connecticut) game this season. Sims best effort came against American Univesity (12 points, 4 rebounds) in early December. Jerrelle Benimon (a freshman 6-7, 210 pound forward) has appeared in the Hoyas' last four games, logging double-digit minutes in the last two (Connecticut & Seton Hall). Way down at the end of the bench Coach Thompson may find three more guards, 6-3 freshman Vee Sanford, 6-6 freshman Steven Stepka and 6-0 junior Ryan Dougherty. There may be more productive days ahead for Sanford and Stepka, but unless the Hoyas are up (or down) by a lot, I don't expect to see them after warmups, as the starting three guards, Wright, Freeman and Clark take 84%, 84% and 82% of the minutes respectively. The Hoyas circulate their front court, Vaughn and Thompson get a bit over 50% of the minutes apiece, with Sims taking a bit less than 25%. Should any of the guards need to sit (for fouls or a blow), expect to see another forward on the court.

Coach Wright will most likely start a pair of guards, 6-1 junior Corey Fisher and 6-2 senior Scottie Reynolds alongside a pair of 'tweeners/wings, 6-5 senior Reggie Redding and 6-5 junior Corey Stokes, anchored by a bfc, 6-8 junior Antonio Pena. The staff has an embarrassment of richs off the bench, beginning with 6-1 freshman guard Maalik Wayns, who has already been cited twice for Big East Freshman of the Week. For substitutions on the wing/front court, the staff can look to 6-6 sophomore transfer Taylor King, a strong sixth man candidate, who can play on the wing but has anchored the #4 in some rotations, freshman 6-6 Dominic Cheek, New Jersey's POY last season for St. Anthony's in Jersey City, or 6-7 freshman Isaiah Armwood, who hit the winning shot against George Mason in the Wildcats' opening game in Puerto Rico last November. In the paint/low post the staff can call on Mouphtaou Yarou, a well regarded 6-10 freshman who started two games before being sidelined with a viral infection (since treated and controlled) and 6-11 red shirt freshman Maurice Sutton, who filled in for Yarou earlier in the season and started seven games in the out of conference leg of the season.

A Few Thoughts...
...Pomeroy calculates a three point (78-75) Villanova win in a game to be played for 71 possessions. 71 possessions would work well for Villanova. The 'Cats like to run and Georgetown may be playing a bit more uptempo, game-for-game, than they have for several seasons (their adjusted pace this season, per Pomeroy's Scout Report Page is just over 66 possessions (ranked at #244 in D1). For their four road games however, the Hoyas really take the air out of the ball, playing for something closer to 60 possessions. Georgetown can keep pace with 71 possessions, if they hit their shots and limit turnovers. Georgetown has a relatively high turnover rate in conference games (over 20%) and a low number of offensive rebounds. Historically those two shortcomings were not fatal to the Hoyas' chances to win. Last season, and carrying into this season, a bad game in one ares has usually been more than off set by a strong game elsewhere -- against Butler, Georgetown lost 28.7% of their possessions, but shot well (51% eFG%) and had an unusually strong offensive rebounding percentage (42.9%); against Temple the Hoyas had a disasterous day from the field (eFG% of 39.3%) and lost over 25% of their possessions, but they compensated by getting to the line more 45% and stifling Temple's shot efficiency. That the Owls had difficulty rebounding was a benefit too. A high percentage of turnovers (and poor offensive rebounding) can be balanced by strong three point shooting. The Wildcat's perimeter defense may be severely tested by Freeman and Clark.

Reading List
For those looking for some background on the two teams, try these links...
1. Villanova Game Notes
2. Georgetown Game Notes
3. A Washington Post update on Georgetown.
4. Villanova Viewpoint's history of the series.
5. ESPN's Weekend Watch writeup.
6. NY Times background piece on Mouphtaou Yarou.
7. IBBW's Preview.
8. The Casual Hoya and IBBW collaborated on a mutual Q&A session.

I will be at the Center, hosting a live blog for the folks at Rush the Court. After you open the game thread on your favorite message board, open a second tab, come over to Rush the Court and contribute to the commentary and dialog live from the game.

Preview 2009-10 -- Georgetown Hoyas

Too Busy for the Details?
From #1 in 2008 to #12 in 2009, (back to) #? in 2010? Anyone feel the need for some Dramamine? Coach Thompson will bring back a sophomore and junior dominated squad for 2010. The Hoyas will finish higher than they did in 2009 -- they bring back most of their points, minutes and rebounding. The entering class does not promise any missing (or last) pieces; everything is already in the program. The challenge was to bring them back, having lost #4 DaJuan Summers who would have been a senior this season. Prognosis -- A 2nd quartile finish.

3 Years At a Glance

	Returning...
	2010	2009	2008
%Min	68.7	43.7	78.2
%Pts	67.9	46.9	74.9
%FGM	70.1	45.4	74.8
%3FGM	46.6	62.1	80.9
%OReb	70.6	32.5	77.5
%DReb	69.6	46.8	72.3
%TReb	69.9	43.0	74.0

The Hoyas lost a lot of returning minutes going into the 2009 season. Had Summers taken his senior season the returning minutes would have been >80%, providing Georgetown with the kind of experience that they had going into the 2008 season. But that did not come to pass. Of particular interest is the absence of 3 point shooting, that outside threat has historically worked to Georgetown's advantage when the Princeton Offense was a well oiled machine.

	According to Pomeroy...
	2008-09		2007-08		2006-07
	#	Rank	#	Rank	#	Rank
Overall ORtg	111.2	45	117.2	18	124.8	2
Overall DRtg	91.1	22	86.4	6	89.3	20
Big East ORtg	101.4	12	104.5	8	111.4	1
Big East DRtg	102.9	7	93.1	2	95.3	4
Four Factors -- Overall
All Off. eFG%	53.0	41	56.8	4	57.0	4
All Off. TOv%	21.6	247	21.2	192	22.0	213
All Off. OReb%	33.5	148	33.8	132	40.2	8
All Off. FTA/FGA	41.9	41	34.2	237	36.6	164
All Def. eFG%	45.9	40	42.0	1	44.1	10
All Def. TOv%	21.6	98	18.9	279	19.3	267
All Def. OReb%	36.2	292	32.8	157	33.9	191
All Def. FTA/FGA	33.3	102	36.0	163	32.1	78
Four Factors -- Big East
BE Off. eFG%	51.0	7	52.7	2	56.9	1
BE Off. TOv%	22.3	14	21.9	14	22.3	14
BE Off. OReb%	34.1	9	31.2	13	39.8	3
BE Off. FTA/FGA	34.6	7	37.5	7	28.6	5
BE Def. eFG%	49.1	8	42.5	1	45.2	3
BE Def. TOv%	20.9	4	19.7	8	19.9	7
BE Def. OReb%	36.7	12	32.0	6	33.4	8
BE Def. FTA/FGA	38.4	12	40.6	12	19.8	2
Miscellanious
All Gms Cons	27.5	340	22.1	238	22.1	233
All Gms Luck	-.113	339	+.021	96	+.001	55

Turnovers aside, the Hoya's 2006-07 four factors profile is probably as close to ideal for the Princeton Offense as a team can get. Despite very average defensive numbers in conference play in both 2007 and 2008, the Hoyas maintained their status as an elite team. 2009's stepback defensively came in shot defense and defensive rebounding.

	For the Record...
	2008-09			2007-08			2006-07
	W	L	Pct.	W	L	Pct.	W	L	Pct.
Overall	16	15	0.516	28	6	0.824	30	7	0.811
Big East	7	11	0.389	15	3	0.833	13	3	0.813
Post Season?	NIT/Rnd 1			NCAA/Rnd 2			NCAA/Rnd 5

I believed the Hoyas would have difficulty earning a third consecutive BET bye seed in 2009. The squad's youth, especially when taken in the context of the conference's overall maturity, coupled with the loss of specific skills offered by Roy Hibbert (rebounding & scoring efficiency) and Jon Wallace (perimeter offense), would weigh heavily against them. I did not anticipate a losing conference record however.

The Hoya's Nucleus

On Offense
Player	Min%	Ortg	Poss%	Shot%	eFG%	PPWS	OR%	FTR%
Wright	81.0	107.8	21.9	22.0	53.7	1.15	1.2	41.1
Monroe	76.0	110.8	23.3	20.8	57.6	1.22	8.8	60.0
Freeman	72.5	115.2	19.5	21.7	53.4	1.15	5.2	41.0
Clark	45.1	100.3	17.2	16.1	57.0	1.22	7.2	31.3
Mescheriakov	25.3	81.5	15.5	16.0	43.0	0.89	4.7	21.9
Sims	21.8	90.5	14.5	15.1	42.3	0.90	7.9	32.7
Vaughn	20.9	88.6	18.1	13.9	45.7	0.96	11.3	47.8

Summers (departed), Wright and Monroe formed the "offensive engine" for the Hoyas. With Summers' exit, who will step into that role? Monroe may have a few more touches in him, but if Georgetown is reduced to an inside/outside duo (Wright-Monroe), they will give away those aspects of the Princeton Offense (simultaneous, multiple inside/outside scoring threats) most responsible for it's efficiency. Austin Freeman seems poised to assume a larger role, but a versatile wing/forward, in the mold of Jeff Green or Summers would be most helpful...Jason Clark anyone?

On Defense
Player	Min%	DR%	Ast%	TO%	Stl%	Blk%
Chris Wright	81.0	9.5	25.1	20.4	0.3	2.1
Greg Monroe	76.0	16.7	18.8	21.3	5.1	3.7
Austin Freeman	72.5	11.3	14.6	13.9	0.6	1.8
Jason Clark	45.1	10.0	9.0	29.1	1.1	2.2
Nikita Mescheriakov	25.3	8.2	7.8	27.5	0.7	1.7
Henry Sims	21.8	13.2	5.7	20.2	6.3	1.8
Julian Vaughn	20.9	12.1	14.2	29.8	7.4	1.4

The Hoyas need to find defensive rebounds. Among the returning players, only Greg Monroe was ranked in Pomeroy's Top 500. For a program that boasted 2 sometimes 3 top 500 rebounders (a Top 100 in 2006), 2009 was a big step back.

Significant Additions
With no gaping holes to fill and no inbound transfers this season, it comes as no surprise the incoming true freshmen (three of them) are not Top 10/50 types. Of the three, 6-7, 190 lb 5th year #3 Hollis Thompson has received the widest recognition. Hollis enrolled in the Spring 2009 and participated in practices during the last season. 6-2 #2 guard Vee Sanford and 6-7, 200 lbs Jerrelle Benimon, a #4 out of Fauquier H.S. (VA) will have time to learn Coach Thompson's system.

Explode If...
As the 2009 season wound down the bloggers over at Hoya Prospectus launched an indepth exploration of why the Hoyas' season went South. While definative conclusions were few, they did examine 6 different (statistical) aspects of the Hoyas' game, "Pace and Turnovers", "Shooting" (efficient conversion), "Shot Selection", "Free Throw Defense" (not as strange as it sounds, it was actually a preamble to luck and experience...), "More Luck" and "Experience and Depth". The bloggers did not develop a structured narrative for what happened to Georgetown. Of the series, the first two were the most enlightening. They, when combined with a largely overlooked (but in my opinion, one of the best posts written on the blog) entry titled "The Problem of Rebounding", probably explain what happened to Georgetown. During the 2007 season Ken Pomeroy identified one of Georgetown's enduring paradoxes -- that the Hoyas, running a low possession offensive system (the Princeton Offense) and somewhat prone to turnovers were, nevertheless, one of the most efficient offensive teams in DI ball. In the 2 seasons since their Final Four appearance the bloggers observed the Hoya's increasing pace (possessions per game), even as their offensive efficiency declined (slightly at first, a good deal more last season). The key to efficient offensive possessions was their offensive rebounding. The Hoyas were able to parlay missed FGAs into a second 35 second period, usually long enough to reset their offense and take advantage of what they learned about the defense in their last offensive sequence. Given enough 2nd chances, they were able to convert. As their offensive rebounding declined (with no appreciable increase in their field goal shooting percentages), their pace increased and offensive efficiency declined. To right the ship, the Hoyas will have to begin with rebounding.
1. Monroe, a top 500 rebounder at both ends of the floor needs to become a top 100 rebounder. Sims, when he hits the floor, will have to embrace the mission as well. The Hoyas excelled when at least two players were ranked in Pomeroy's top 500 for rebounding (with one of the ranked players higher...much higher). The third rebounding monster will most likely have to come from a guard spot -- Austin Freeman, Jason Clark possibly -- or Nikita Mescheriakov (or Hollis Thompson?) a forward.
2. Consistent 3 point shooting departed with Jon Wallace in 2008. Jesse Sapp and DaJuan Summers took responsibility for that part of the Hoya offense in 2009, but with mixed results as both had conversion rates in the mid-high 30s. The mantle will pass to some combination of Mescheriakov, Clark, Freeman and Wright, a quartet whose accuracy ranged from the mid 20s to the mid 30s. The group will have to add about 10 points to their completion percentage.
3. The person holding the ball in the Princeton Offense ideally should have three options -- pass to one of two cutters or take the shot himself. The key is to have the player best able to score the points take the shot. It is no coincidence that in their best seasons Georgetown had 2 players -- one usually a forward -- ranked in the top 500 in Ast%...with a third player just outside of that ranking. Point guard Chris Wright had an assist rate of 25% (maybe too high!?), with the next highest just outside the top 500 ranking. The issue is not the number of assists, but rather the distribution/frequency of assists. If Chris Wright understands that his job is not to find the shooter and get him the ball, but rather to "set the table" -- that is, initiate the offense, -- then run his pattern, thus allowing the offense sequence run out with each player who holds the ball decide to pass or take the shot, the offensive system play to it's strength.

Implode If...
The Hoyas rolled into Storr on December 29th to open their Big East season. They were 10-1 and the Huskies were 11-0. Georgetown throttled UConn 74-63, and seemed to be on their way. Even through the next 2½ weeks, the Hoyas maintained a 12-4 record (a home loss to Pitt and 2 road losses, one to Duke and the other to Notre Dame) with Monroe joining Wright in the top 500 for assist rates, and guard/forward Austin Freeman hovering just below at 16. Then the well oiled machine fell apart as they went 4-11 the rest of the way, as Monroe's assist rate declined to 18.8 while Freeman slumped to 14.6. Given there were no injuries or dismissals due to academics or discipline, the collapse was especially odd. What causes a season to turn on a dime? What caused the Hoya season to turn in 3 weeks?
1. They cannot control the offensive or defensive boards. Offensive boards will allow them to compensate for average shooting without being penalized too severely for turnovers. Defensive rebounding can depress the opponent's score, especially if they are a poor shooting team.
2. Don't distribute the ball. Don't get the ball to the player with the best chance to score.

Crucial Run/Bellweather Games
Georgetown under Coach Thompson has usually had a What?!!?? game or two in the OOC, so a mediocre outing early will most likely not be a clear indication of how they are progressing. Their game versus Washington in the John Wooden Classic, should be a good early bellweather. Playing on a Pac-10 court, the Huskies, winners of the regular season Pac-10 title last season, will not exactly have a homecourt advantage, but it will be pretty close. A good showing in Los Angeles, if coupled with a win over Butler, a well coached program out of the Horizon League, will surely be an early indication that the Hoyas are moving in the right direction.

The Hoyas will be tested early in their Big East schedule, as they host Connecticut on 1/9 (their 4th game in the Big East regular season) to open a two game homestand that features Seton Hall as the encore. Georgetown then takes to the road for two games, first against the Wildcats and then the Panthers. 4-0 through that stretch would most likely put them at 7-0 (they open with a 3 game sequence that begins with a home game against St. John's and then a Mid-West road trip that takes them to DePaul and Marquette). A 5-2 or better start should be taken as good news by the Hoya fan-base. Their five game run to close out the season, three home games against Syracuse, Notre Dame and Cincinnati separated by road trips to Louisville and West Virginia will be difficult. But if the Hoyas are, like last season, out of gas at that point, that run will be brutal.

25 Top PPWS Returning Players

True Shot or PPWS?
John Hollinger developed the True Shot statistic as a way of expressing a player's overall shooting capability with a single value. True Shot folds the player's free throw proficiency into his field goal efficiency (2FGA & 3FGA), expressing all three elements of shooting as a single number. If eFG% can, with a single number, provide a sense of the player's ability to convert field goal attempts (2s and 3s), True Shot provides a sense of a player's ability to convert field goal attempts into points, whether those points come with successful 2s, 3s or free throws. The specfic calculation varies slightly from DI to the NBA, and from author to author, the idea (and elements) however, remain the same. Points Per Weighted Shot (PPWS) is the same calculation with one difference -- True Shot calculations multiply the player's points scored by 50, while PPWS does not. True Shot then is expressed as an implied percentage (ie xx.x), while PPWS looks more like...well points per shot (ie x.xx). True Shot's advantage is that it provides a "normalized" representation of the conversion metric, consistent with eFG%, 3FGM%, and FTM%, which makes it easier to compare the values. I like PPWS because it can tell me at a glance how many points a player can score every time he takes a shot. He will either convert from the field, or at the line (or not). The PPWS calculation (for DI)...

PPWS = Pts / ((0.475 * FTA) + FGA)

Want the True Shot? Just multiply Pts by 50 before dividing. For True Shot, anything above 60 is very good, while 50 is the threshold for "good". By the same token, a PPWS of 1.20 or greater is very good, below 1.00, and the player is not at all efficient at converting his field goal opportunities. Freshmen will typically have PPWSs ranging from the mid 80s to the high 90s, though some of the best will record PPWSs > 1.00 (see Greg Monroe below -- a PPWS of 1.22).

Top Guns
I have listed (about) 25 Big East players, returning for 2010, who recorded the highest PPWSs in 2009. The player had to log => 40% of the time in his position. I included the player's eFG%, field goal attempts (FGA), 3 point attempts (3PA), free throw attempts (FTA), minutes (MIN), points (PTS) and percentage of available shots taken while the player was in the game. The players highlighted in dark green were the focal points (to use Ken Pomeroy's term, the "Go-to Guys") for their team's offense. Light green suggests a prominent (but not overwhelming -- per Pomeroy a "Major" or a "Significant" Contributor) role, a player who may share the 1st option on offense role with another player, or one who is the 2nd option on offense.

Player	Team	MIN	%Min	PPWS	%Shot	eFG%	FGA	FTA	3PA	PTS
J Smith	Ville	785	52.9	1.28	16.9	63.1	195	65	131	289
Butler	MU	687	48.9	1.22	10.8	51.4	107	112	4	196
Monroe	GTown	958	76.0	1.22	20.8	57.6	250	150	6	393
N'Diaye	RU	745	58.0	1.22	10.8	58.7	109	79	1	179
Clark	GTown	568	45.1	1.22	16.1	57.0	115	36	50	161
Jackson	Cuse	839	53.4	1.21	18.3	62.3	223	77	1	315
Samuels	Ville	929	62.6	1.21	20.6	57.8	282	165	1	436
Onuaku	Cuse	1017	64.8	1.21	18.1	66.7	267	124	0	393
Wanamaker	Pitt	683	47.4	1.18	13.9	54.2	143	71	59	208
Stokes	Nova	868	56.9	1.18	21.5	55.2	268	66	182	352
Garcia	Hall	803	62.0	1.17	13.7	60.6	165	56	0	225
Freeman	GTown	913	72.5	1.15	21.7	53.4	249	102	85	343
Wright	GTown	1021	81.0	1.15	22.0	53.7	282	116	96	387
Hayward	MU	1109	78.9	1.14	27.2	53.0	435	133	148	570
Knowles	Ville	619	41.7	1.12	21.0	56.3	192	19	111	226
Hazell	Hall	1161	89.7	1.12	31.6	52.3	550	204	290	726
Reynolds	Nova	1223	80.2	1.12	23.9	48.9	420	205	215	578
Echenique	RU	909	70.7	1.11	15.0	50.8	185	122	1	270
Fisher	Nova	925	60.6	1.10	22.3	48.0	296	162	94	410
Walker	UConn	907	61.5	1.10	18.1	49.8	234	123	48	321
Rautins	Cuse	1059	67.4	1.10	21.6	53.3	332	45	279	387
Sanchez	USF	535	43.0	1.09	12.9	53.3	92	47	0	125
Koshwal	DPU	1026	77.7	1.08	20.0	52.7	298	134	2	391
Pena	Nova	652	42.7	1.08	14.2	48.1	133	89	1	189
Vaughn	Nati	1146	88.5	1.07	24.1	49.0	399	120	240	488
Robinson	UConn	696	47.2	1.07	19.4	51.3	192	63	23	237
Brooks	PC	696	52.5	1.07	26.4	50.9	279	79	128	338

Providence's Marshon Brooks and Corey Stokes out of Villanova will get more recognition when they are logging more minutes. For Brooks, playing in a rotation with (senior) Weymini Efejuku and (sophomore) Brian McKenzie last season, the door is wide open as the Friars lost 3 starters and McKenzie aside, the team has few bench players when the Class of 2009 moved on. Coach Davis has some replacements coming in, but a shallow bench leaves few to challenge him for the starter's nod. Stokes will play in front of freshman Dominic Cheek, but expect Cheek, and when he returns, senior Reggie Redding, to push Stokes for time. Lazar Hayward, fresh off of a bronze medal (a teammate of Corey Fisher on the USA team) run at the World University Games this past summer, will get as much offensive responsibility as he can handle when he takes the court for Marquette. With the departure of the 3 Amigos and front court player Dwight Burke, Hayward is the only experienced volume scorer returning this season. Marquette will have a handful of JUCOs and true freshmen to compete for the vacated starting spots, but the newcomers will initially complement Hayward's offense. Jeremy Hazell's Pirates will have something they have not had in a few seasons -- legitimate 2nd and 3rd scoring options to draw some of the defensive attention that Hazell has drawn. Hazell will most likely scale back (or at least stay about where he is) his shooting, but with more space to work in, expect him to become even more efficient at scoring. Between them Louisville's wings, Jerry Smith and Preston Knowles have accounted for over 93% of the minutes, converting shot to points very efficiently as 3rd/4th options in the offense, complements of the attention Williams and Clark drew from opposing defenses. The Cardinals may need more from these two in 2010. Whether they play together or in sequence, they will most likely be expected to take more liberties with their shooting.

I was a bit surprised to see no less than 4 Hoyas, Greg Monroe, Jason Clark, Austin Freeman and Chris Wright, among the 25 (27 actually, I used 1.07 as the cutoff point for list), about 1/8 of the list then comes from a single team. With four players (3 starters) drawing a PPWS of 1.07 or better, how could Georgetown have a raw offensive rating (per Ken Pomeroy) of just 106.4? The guys over at the Hoya Prospectus Blog partially answered that question in their August 14 post on turnovers during conference play. Of the 4 on the PPWS list, only Freeman appeared to value the ball. Monroe and Clark were worse than the team average, while point guard Chris Wright with a turnover rate of 22%, was just below the team's average of 23% for conference play. That 23% turnover rate ranked the Hoyas #14 among conference teams. Ouch.